25 may 2015-hakan demirbuken

www.statisticsandmore.at

COUNTER NARCOTICS CONFERENCE, COMBINED MARTIME FORCES25 May 2015, Doha

DRUGS TRAFFICKING : LESSONS LEARNED AND THE WAY FORWARD

Hakan Demirbuken - Independent Researcher

Importance of efficient information and Intelligence sharing platforms in Arabian Gulf


SITUATION ANALYSISDrug Trafficking to Europe

Heroin

Cannabis

Cocaine

Locally produced ATS and cannabis

NPS


SITUATION ANALYSISDrug use in Europe

Heroin : Slight Decrease

Cocaine : Decrease in Trends

Cannabis : Most common drug used in Europe

ATS : Decrease in trends

NPS : New emerging drug type

How Europe Manages to control drug use , even though it is one of the major target destination by drug traders ?


SITUATION ANALYSISDrug Control Mechanisms

Drug Control

Prevention

Awareness / Education

Social Approach to Drug users

Regular Research

Profiling

Intelligence Network

European Drug Research Center : EMMCCDAwww. www.emcdda.europa.eu

Continuous and regular research on drug use, drug trafficking and drug markets at global level

Not only focusing Europe but having a large network of information sharing

Strong profiling systems at ports and borders

Prevention is key element. Intensive awareness programmes for young people.

http://www.emcdda.europa.eu/


SITUATION ANALYSISDrug Control Mechanisms

Understand the Problem

Develop Strategy and Action Plan

Continuously Monitor and Evaluate the Action Plan and strategy

Essential Tool : Research

Requirements : - Central Data Collection

Systems- Knowledge base actions- Establishing large networks

of information collection in and outside of continent


SITUATION ANALYSISCase : Afghan Heroin Market Analysis

Southern Route

Balkan route

Northern Route


SITUATION ANALYSISLatest Trends - Heroin flows to Africa

Heroin trafficking has increased from Makran Coast to Africa between 2010-2013 . The level of heroin trafficking through Traditional Balkan route has decreased..

But, Balkan route has geared up again since 2014…Though, still high volume of heroin goes to Africa…Africa is becoming of drug hub!


SITUATION ANALYSISHeroin Trafficking to Europe

Route

Total seized

(kg) Percent

Africa 747 8%

Balkan route (Turkey) 2451 27%

India 135 1%

Pakistan 3524 38%

South East Asia 887 10%

Iran 1130 12%

Northern 259 3%

Others 104 1%

Total 9237 100%

Routes of heroin seizures reported 2010-2014 in Europe

- Decrease in Traditional Balkan route

- Increase in direct trafficking via Pakistan

- Increasing trafficking via Africa


SITUATION ANALYSISUnderstanding the source : Opium Production

Global Illicit Opium Poppy Cultivation has increased around 35% between 1994-2014.

It is expected to increase further in 2015.


SITUATION ANALYSISOpium Production

Illicit opium cultivation has increased 215% in last 20 years

Further increase expected in 2015

Another record is expected..

Cultivation can be around 240,000 ha..andopium production can be around 8,000 tons (with normal yield figure)


SITUATION ANALYSISOpium Supply -Demand

Year

opium

production

(kg)

Estimated

number of

opiate users

Average

opium per

opiate user

(gr)

Cultivation

(ha)

Average

opium area

(square

meter) per

opiate user

2003 4,783,000 15,200,000 315 168,600 111

2004 4,850,000 15,200,000 319 195,940 129

2005 4,620,000 15,900,000 291 151,500 95

2006 5,810,000 15,800,000 368 201,000 127

2007 8,090,000 15,500,000 522 235,700 152

2008 6,841,000 16,500,000 415 213,003 129

2009 4,953,000 16,800,000 295 185,935 111

2010 4,735,000 16,800,000 282 190,662 113

2011 6,983,000 16,800,000 416 207,500 124

2012 4,905,000 16,400,000 299 236,320 144

2103 6,883,000 16,400,000 420 296,720 181

2014 7,800,000 16,400,000 476 310,000 189

There is no balance between opium production and number of opiate users..

Number of opiate users has not increased in parallel to production

So, how this can be explained ?

Why cultivation and production has increased sharply if number of users are more or less stable ?Where the demand comes from ?

CONCLUSION :

- Demand on opiates unknown- It is not clear Legal Morphine

supply is enough for world’s demand

- It is fact there is illegal opiatebased pain killer and morphine market

- It is fact terrorist organizations needs morphine and pain killers


SITUATION ANALYSIS Where Morphine Goes ?

Morphine Flow out from Afghanistan High volume of morphine goes out from Afghanistan to Pakistan and Iran

Morphine is either used to produce heroin or to produce morphine injections

How much morphine injections needed for ISIS and who is providing ?


SITUATION ANALYSIS Opiate Demand - Supply

Possible reasons for unbalanced demand-supply situation

A- The number of opiate users are underestimated

B- There is a demand for illegally produced opiate based pain killers,cough syrups and morphine injections.

C- Both options=== There are number of illegal pharmaceutical production near by Gulf Countries.


SITUATION ANALYSISLinks between Drugs and Crime

International OC Groups, Terrorist Groups, Illegally armed groups

Local OC Groups

Local traders and corrupt officials

Afghan Farmers

Actors Sharing the US$ 65/year billion Opiate Market…


SITUATION ANALYSISOpiate Trade and Terrorism Financing


SITUATION ANALYSISUnderstanding Gulf Region : Latest Trends - ATS

ATS Flows …Most common drug used in the Gulf Countries


SITUATION ANALYSISUnderstanding Gulf Region : Latest Trends – Cannabis & Heroin

Heroin flows…

Cannabis Flows Dhows trading at Persian Gulf might be mis-used by drug traders..

Country

Seized in

the

country

Seized in

Pakistan

Kuwait 0 1

Oman 5 52

Qatar 10 32

Saudi Arabia 66 148

UAE 361 131

Bahrain 4 0

Heroin Seizures in the Gulf countries compare to he ones stopped in Pakistan is less except UAE


SITUATION ANALYSISUnderstanding Gulf Region : Latest Trends – Cannabis & Heroin

Ferry lines can be abused by drug traffickers at Persian Gulf..

More attention might be needed !


SITUATION ANALYSISUnderstanding Gulf Region : Drug Consumption in Gulf Countries

Country heroin prevalence

heroin

users

cocaine

prevalence Cocaine users

Cannabis

prevalence

Cannabis

users

Amphetamines

prevalence Amphetamines users

Kuwait 0.2% 3,614 N/A N/A 3.1% 65,897 0.3% 6,377

Saudi Arabia 0.1% 9,443 N/A N/A 0.3% 47,214 0.4% 62,952

Bahrain N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

United Arab Emirates 0.0% 695 N/A N/A 5.4% 187,608 N/A N/A

Qatar N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Oman N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.1% 1,678

Source : UNODC

Heroin : at least 13,000 user Cocaine : unknow but estimated to be very lowCannabis : At least 300,000 users !!!ATS : At least 70,000 users


SITUATION ANALYSIS

Weak Governance

Instability

Drug Trade

Terrorism Funding

Conflicts

There is a very high relation between drug trade and terrorism Funding…

How can we cut this relation ?


SITUATION ANALYSIS

Heroin, opium and cannabis

Synthetic drugs

KhatProduction

Drugs trade and terrorism is heavily existing around Arabian Gulf region

Cocaine


SITUATION ANALYSIS

New Phase of Terrorism

1- Size and number of the terrorist groups increased sharply in last 20 years especially in South Asia, Middle East and Africa

2- Terrorist groups are well trained and structured – like normal regular army

3- Terrorist groups have their own logistics, hospitals , taxation systems , governors, etc….act like a normal state

4- They need more money then they needed in the past…

How do they Finance such a structure ??


SITUATION ANALYSIS

New Threat : ISIS Network : Middle East- Gulf – South Asia – Africa – Central Asia

Estimated number of ISIS fighters - members : 40,000-50,000

Estimated cost of all ISIS fighters and support staff : US$ 1.5- 2.5 million per day –

(salary, food, accommodation) US$ 550- US$ 900 million dollars per year

Estimated cost for weapons and other military equipment : Unknown

ISIS Incomes :Oil trade : Estimated US$ 1.5 – 2 million / day - US$ 500- 750 million

per yearRansoms and other taxation : not clear

ISIS lost some oil sites recently…so income decreased..

What is the size of total terrorists under this network ? 100,000 Cost per day : US$ 3-5 million per day ?...how such amount is funded ?

Is drug trafficking / trade is a new income for ISIS ?

- It is very likely….Given that they are now in Afghanistan !

- Terrorist groups, including ISIS are located on main drug production and trafficking routes..


SITUATION ANALYSISThe Way Forward

FACTS :

1- Size of terrorism organizations are much bigger that 30 years ago. And they are much more organized

2- Terrorist and Organized Crime groups heavily benefit from Drug Trade.

3- Drug trade has increased but not decreased last 30 years and expected to increase further

4- There are more conflicts which causes more people to be vulnerable. Therefore, terrorist or drug trafficking groups does not have any problem to recruit people.

PROJECTIONS

1- Middle East will continue to be center of attention for coming at least 10 years. It will be a good heaven for terrorist, OC and drug trafficking groups. Therefore Gulf countries will be under threat.

2- Drug trade and production will increase or at least will not decrease

3- Millions of vulnerable people are trappedby drug, OC and terrorist groups in Middle East.

4- The lack of efficient law enforcement in Africa will be continued to be heavily used by drug traders and terrorist groups.

5- It is not clear if the Current level of legalopium production meets the demand or now. However, it is clear that demand for legal morphine and opiate based pain killers will continue to increase at global level.


SITUATION ANALYSISThe Way Forward - Facts

Baramchatown –Helmand (Afghanistan)

Pakistan

Border

Africa

Too many uncontrolled borders..Almostimpossible to control


SITUATION ANALYSISFacts

Regional Intelligence

Center

European Intelligence

Centers

GCIC

Regional or national

Int. Centers

CARICC

CMF

Information Networking in and outside of the region.

Africa : No central or regional intelligence center !

Open seas and sea borders are used by drug traders and terrorist groups .

Therefore, Joint operations between GCIC – CMF is very much needed ! Information sharing mechanism between these 2 is essential.It is also essential to increase the links with Afghanistan and Pakistan Governments bilaterally.

The level of joint operations or control delivery is very low in the region and between the region and Afghanistan.


SITUATION ANALYSISPower of Networking and sharing

Success

Data

Information

Data

Intelligence

Combine resources ! (Keep in mind drug traders and terrorist groups already combined their resources)

Use all data , everything is important. Don’t miss the details..

- Details of drugs and terrorism cases,

- Monitor open sources –news

- Listen every single information

- Local information and data – monitor open sources- record daily

ONLINE and TIMELY DATA/INFO Sharing…OnlineAnalysis ..Use power of Multi layer Analysis (Research and Statistics)


SITUATION ANALYSISThe Way Forward

Information

Networking

• Information is key factor for success

• But information is only valuable if it is shared on time

Research

• Power of Research : Use power of research and information analysis by using all sources (including open sources) to think faster than drug traffickers

Develop online research tools

• Develop an online (secured) platform to collect data , to make automatic analysis and on time communication..


SITUATION ANALYSISThe Way Forward : Power of Research and Information

Online Research Platform

Drug Seizure Cases (in region)

Drug production info

(outside of region)

Online communication

Automated analysis

Precursor seizures (in &

outside of region)

Drug Seizure cases (out

region)

ONLINE RESEARCH PLATFORM

It can be developed at GCIC

It can take maximum one year to make it operational

Needs :- Team at GCIC- Data inputs (online) from GCIC

countries- Data from Outside of region (near

region) through official sources and media monitoring

- Analytical training


SITUATION ANALYSISThanks

Hakan Demirbuken

Free Lance Consultant

Email : [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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