**** SPORTS FINAL THE FUTURE Long Island Finding a Greener of $2.50 | SUNDAY, JULY 11, 2010 | NASSAU EDITION Way COPYRIGHT 2010, NEWSDAY LLC, LONG ISLAND, VOL. 70, NO. 311 LI neighborhood flooded in spring in line for disaster funding A2-3 SPECIAL REPORT : PART FIVE Crucial questions for LI on clean water and clean air FEDS FINALLY CHIP IN FEMA inspectors tour the scene in Riverhead in our video. newsday.com PHOTO BY DANIEL GOODRICH FILE PHOTO BY JAMES CARBONE COVERAGE BEGINS ON A4-5
Transcript
****SPORTS FINAL
THE FUTURELong Island
Finding aGreener
of
$2.50 | SUNDAY, JULY 11, 2010 | NASSAU EDITION
Way
COPYRIGHT 2010, NEWSDAY LLC, LONG ISLAND, VOL. 70, NO. 311
LI neighborhood flooded in springin line for disaster funding
A2-3
SPECIAL REPORT : PART FIVE
Crucial questionsfor LI on clean water
and clean air
FEDS FINALLY CHIP IN
FEMA inspectors tour the scene in Riverhead in our video. newsday.com
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THE FUTURELong Island
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Yvonne Sanchez, 52, Dix Hills, WLIWChannel 21, viewer relations, isincreasingly concerned about the state ofthe ocean and marine life as well asfinding clean sources of energy. For her,
the keys to preserving the environmentare community activism and public
and private investment.
AIR &
From chemical spills to smogand ailing bays, the toxic residueof the 20th century could lingeron Long Island for decades.
But as those cleanupsprogress, the region’s challengefor the 21st century will be tolimit the collective environmen-tal footprint of its 2.8 million resi-dents:
Septic systems foul groundwa-ter with nitrogen. Cars andtrucks pump out exhaust that ag-gravates asthma and could leadto rising seas and warming tem-peratures. Polluted runoffsweeps over roads and drive-ways into estuaries that serve asnurseries for marine life.
The future will likely be a bal-ancing act as communities workto preserve recent environmen-tal gains and keep up with strict-er regulations expected in thenext decade. At the same time,new strategies will target moresubtle forms of pollution — thekind everyone produces — thatsome experts say carry seriousenvironmental consequencesfor Long Island’s land, air andwater.
“Historically, there is this ideathat there is some big smoke-stack somewhere to blame,” saidBob DeLuca of Group for theEast End, a local conservation or-ganization. “But it’s the death of
1,000 cuts that we really have tobe concerned about. . . . Septicsthat aren’t maintained, fertilizeron our lawns, road runoff into acreek. I have a sense that the billis going to come due in the nextfew years.”
Long Island’s environmentalquality has steadily improved inrecent decades, thanks to lawsthat limit the worst pollutionfrom factories, power plants andother industrial sources.
But long-standing suburban is-sues remain unsolved. Wherewill Long Island put its garbage?How can it protect wetlands andpreserve open space? At thesame time, the region must pre-pare for long-term threats —such as climate change — whileseeking ways to limit chronic,low-level pollution that de-grades local air and water.
Among the challenges:c Three-quarters of Suffolkstill relies on septic systems,many of which leach harmfulnitrogen into bays and under-ground aquifers that supplydrinking water.c Long Island residents pro-duce 22 percent more trash percapita each day than the state-wide average.c Fertilizer that keeps lawns
See FUTURE on A16
The ocean lifecan't stand up forthemselves. Wehave to speak upfor them . . . withtrue investmentand research intoenergy. Someonehas to step upand take realleadership.”
of Ducks fly past the EF Barrett powerstation near Island Park. Laws that limit
pollution from factories, power plantsand other industrial sources have
helped improve Long Island’senvironmental quality.
The tough challenge of protecting theenvironment on an island of 3 million
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{ }C L E A N D R I N K I N GW A T E RLong Island’s water comes from under-ground aquifers. Groundwater is vulnera-ble to gasoline and chemical spills, somedating back to the Cold War. Septicsystems and fertilizer have also led to
high nitrogen levels in parts of Suffolk.
STATUS. Groundwater is better protected now be-cause of chemical disposal laws and restrictions ondevelopment in the Pine Barrens. Water utilities test forcontamination and spend millions to clean water. Buttrace amounts of pharmaceuticals are raising questionsabout human health effects.SOLUTIONS. Nassau and Suffolk have banned fertiliz-er use during cold months when nitrogen is more likelyto pollute groundwater. Some want more sewers inSuffolk and think the county should update its sanitarycode to address pollution from cesspools at olderhomes. The Suffolk County Water Authority is workingwith federal officials to develop new standards forpharmaceuticals detection.
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A I R P O L L U T I O NLocal air quality has improved, butsmog and soot levels still exceedhealth standards. Some pollutiontravels here from power plants in theMidwest. State data from 2002 showlocal cars and trucks produce much
of the smog-causing emissions.
STATUS. Future improvements largely depend onlimiting car and truck traffic or switching to low-emission vehicles. Tighter federal standards forsmog are coming down the pike. Regulators say thatLong Island — which is not now in compliance —will struggle to reach the new limit.SOLUTIONS. Public transit aside, some see hope inplug-in electric hybrids. Regulators hope new fuelefficiency rules and higher emissions standards forconstruction vehicles and ships will yield moreimprovements. Others want to shift more roadtraffic to bus and rail lines.
Moderate
P R E S E R V I N GO P E N S P A C ELong Island will probably run out ofavailable land before 2050, observerssay. Advocates say open space and farmsprotect drinking water and attract tour-ists. Development can pose threats to
rare plants, birds and animals.
STATUS. An estimated 60,000 acres have beenpreserved so far. But the less land there is, the more itcosts. Some worry that small parcels may create is-lands that isolate animals and plants and increase therisk of extinction.SOLUTIONS. Public opinion supports more purchases.Some say development should be directed away fromopen land and toward old commercial and industrialsites. Advocates say governments should buy land nearother open space to form greenbelts.
C L I M A T EC H A N G EMost federal and state environmentalofficials agree with a large body of scien-tists who say the Earth is warming.Human use of fossil fuels is thought tobear much of the blame. Among the
biggest concerns for coastal Long Island: increasedflooding as a result of rising oceans.
STATUS. State officials warn that communities needto plan for sea-level rise and other expected changes,such as increased risk of mosquito-borne disease. NewYork is part of a regional trading scheme to reducegreenhouse gas emissions from power plants.SOLUTIONS. Local renewable energy projects are inthe works, including a large solar project planned atBrookhaven National and a wind farm to be sited offNew Jersey. Congress is considering bills to controlindustrial carbon emissions, but passage is uncertain.
G A R B A G ELong Island burns much of its gar-bage at waste-to-energy incinerators.The rest goes to out-of-state landfillsbecause local municipal dumps wereshut down to protect groundwater.Local recycling rates have stagnated
over the past decade.
STATUS. Officials worry dependence on off-Islanddisposal could create a crisis if landfills close or raiseprices. Illegal dumping in local fields and woodsremains a problem. The economic downturn hasdelayed plans to expand local incinerator capacity.SOLUTIONS. The state wants communities toreduce the amount of trash thrown away or burned.Expanded compost programs would recycle foodand yard waste. Some local solid-waste managersare skeptical. Others want to ship more garbage outby rail to reduce local traffic.
Here are six key environmental issuesfacing the Long Island region and theprogress that we’ve made so far:
Little
O V E R F I S H I N G /C O A S T A LP O L L U T I O NSewage, wetlands loss and nitrogen-laden runoff from developed areashave hurt water quality in bays andestuaries. Overfishing and poor water
quality have led to declines in clams, lobsters andfish that sustained generations of Long Islanders.
STATUS. Efforts to revive clams in the Great SouthBay have yet to succeed. Nitrogen pollution feedsblooms of harmful algae on the South and Northshores. Strict limits on the harvest of summer floun-der and other fish have set fishermen against regula-tors.SOLUTIONS. Communities are trying new ways tofilter pollutants before stormwater reaches bays.Striped bass and other fish once in decline have comeback. But fishermen have clashed with fisheries man-agers over catch shares and other harvest controlmeasures intended to make fishing more sustainable.
Some
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THE BIGGESTPROBLEMS
Ducks fly past the EF Barrett powerstation near Island Park. Laws that limit
pollution from factories, power plantsand other industrial sources have
helped improve Long Island’senvironmental quality.
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600KThe approximateincrease in numberof cars registeredon Long Island since1980. Meanwhile,the population onLong Island has onlyincreased by270,000 in thesame time.That is about
Long Island
green can foul water and feedtoxic algae blooms. Pollutedrunoff has landed 43 local baysand lakes on the state’s im-paired waters list.c More than half the localemissions that cause smogcome from cars and trucks;traffic on the Long Island Ex-pressway is expected to nearlydouble in the next 25 years, ac-cording to state figures.
Tackling those challengeswill take a combination of gov-ernment action and personalchoices. Most experts say wewill need to drive less, recyclemore and keep our septic sys-tems working properly.
“It’s the pollution that wecause,” said John Turner, direc-tor of Brookhaven Town’s divi-sion of environmental protec-tion. “If we’re going to success-fully protect Long Island, we’regoing to have to do it one house-hold and one family at a time.”
‘Opportunity to reimagine’For some, the way forward
is to change suburban life sowe consume less and generateless waste. That could meantaking public transit, carpool-ing or switching to a low-emis-sion vehicle.
At home, residents couldlandscape with native plants,start backyard compost heaps,or limit use of fertilizers andpesticides that can end up inlocal groundwater.
“We can’t control what’sblowing in from the Midwest,but can we change the habits inour houses and the choices wemake with our vehicles,” saidCarrie Meek Gallagher, SuffolkCounty’s commissioner for en-ergy and the environment.
Others want to retrofit the re-gion. One idea: Instead of build-ing residential developmentson virgin ground, recycle old in-dustrial sites near the railroador underused commercial prop-erties such as Long Island’s shut-tered auto dealerships locatedalong bus lines. “It’s an opportu-nity to reimagine a place,” saidSarah Lansdale of SustainableLong Island.
To tackle runoff, local govern-ments are looking to modify
roads and storm sewers that di-rect water away from buildingsbut also serve as conduits forcontaminants that close beach-es and shut shellfish beds.
Pavement and asphaltcover nearly 30 percent ofLong Island — an imperviousgirdle that prevents theground from absorbing ex-cess rain and snow. Instead,runoff picks up fertilizer,motor oil and other pollut-ants and dumps them intostreams and bays.
At a boat ramp inSouthold, artist and environ-mental activist Lillian Ballused $80,000 in federalgrants and community dona-tions for a unique project totreat storm water that wash-es into Mattituck Creek. Sheinstalled sparkling permeablepavement made of recycledglass that lets water movethrough to the soil beneath.Plants in a vegetated swale atthe water’s edge suck up ni-trogen and phosphorus.
“When there are torrentialrains, they are absorbed bythe pavement, the bioswalefills up and waters the plantsvery nicely,” said Ball, aSouthold resident who wants
to inspire others to followsuit. “There are signs tellingpeople they can have perme-able pavement in their drive-way, or do a rain garden intheir own backyard.”
The federal EnvironmentalProtection Agency has encour-aged use of rain gardens andpermeable pavement; research-ers are testing their long-termeffectiveness at an agencyparking lot in Edison, N.J.
Nassau County has alreadyspent $15.4 million on a rangeof storm water solutions,from absorbent pillows thatsop up oil in catch basins toshoreline plantings that actlike wetlands to suck up con-taminants. Suffolk and a num-ber of towns and villageshave filtration projects, andmore are in the works.
Short on fundsAs communities experiment
with new ways to limit pollu-tion, some warn that environ-mental gains from previous de-cades could slip away withoutrenewed investment.
Landmark environmentallaws enacted in the 1970s and’80s, for example, have helpedpreserve wetlands and cut downnew toxic waste sites. But at thestate level, environmental spend-ing cuts amid this year’s budgetcrisis have advocates worriedthatenforcement of existing con-servation laws will erode —along with state support foropen space preservation.
“Right now, Brookhaven andthe five East End towns lookand function very differentlythan the rest of the Island,” saidRichard Amper, executive direc-tor of the Long Island Pine Bar-rens Society. “If we don’t pre-serve more open space andfarmland, that distinction isgoing to be lost.”
Money is tight all over.The aging sewage and waterplants that have long servedas Long Island’s first line ofenvironmental defense aredue for costly upgrades, andthe federal grants that largelypaid for their constructiondried up years ago. Everydaymaintenance and repair re-main concerns even at big,well-funded plants such as
Nassau’s Cedar Creek facili-ty, recently cited by the statelabor board for 26 safety vio-lations.
In largely unsewered Suffolk,some are calling for new sewerlines to spur development andprevent pollution from leakycesspools in older, more dense-ly developed areas such as Mas-tic that were built before thecounty’s 1981 sanitary code. Suf-folk County health departmenttests found that over the past 20years, nitrogen levels had in-creased in all three aquifers thatsupply drinking water; nitrogencan sicken babies who drinkcontaminated water.
But laying new pipes couldbe expensive without signifi-cant outside help. In the mean-time, Kevin McAllister of Pecon-ic Baykeeper and other environ-mental advocates want thecounty to address the problem
FUTURE from A4
If you can’t saveyourself, youcan’t save theenvironment.”Chimere Thompson, 29, Glen
Cove, a direct care worker, sayspolicies should be put in place
to make it easier and moreaffordable for
people in allcommunities tocare about theenvironment.
BALANCING REGION’S NEEDS& THE ENVIRONMENT
I think onceproductstewardshipcatches on andmanufacturersbegin to accept it,you’re going to seethings change onhow products aremanufactured forthe better.”
Eric Swenson, 55, of OysterBay, superintendent of
environmental control for theTown of Oyster Bay and amember of the New York
Product Stewardship Council,believes manufacturers should
becomeresponsible forhow to dispose
of theirproducts.
of
A betterjob ofsaving space
449%increase in openspace preservedon LI since 1980when only10,955 acreswere protected.By 2009, thenumber ofacres increasedto 60,133.
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of outdated septic systems andconsider new technologies thatreduce nitrogen.
While Suffolk is consideringsome changes to septic regula-tions, officials say it might becheaper to limitother sources ofnitrogen such as fertilizer use.
More protection predictedAll the while, federal regula-
tors are expected to keepmoving the environmentalgoalposts. In the next year orso, tighter standards for smogwill test Long Island, which al-ready fails to meet federal airquality standards — in partdue to pollution that floats infrom Midwestern powerplants.
New rules and laws arealso expected on looming is-sues such as climate change,declining ocean fish stocksand where to site offshore en-
ergy projects.“There will be more licens-
ing, more regulation andmore spatial restrictions interms of what you can doand where things can go inthe ocean,” said DavidConover, dean and directorof the Marine Sciences Re-search Center at StonyBrook University.
Many of the new rules incoming decades, both locallyand regionally, will likely re-flect a more holistic approachthat seeks to protect ecosys-tems and public health fromthe cumulative impacts ofhuman activity.
“You think what you put onyour lawn in Nassau Countyis not affecting water qualityin Long Island Sound, but itcertainly is,” said Judith Enck,regional administrator for theEPA. “It’s all connected.”
SOURCES: DMV; EPA; LONGISLAND PINE BARRENSSOCIETY; NYS DEPT. OFENVIRONMENTALCONSERVATION
Lillian Ball installed permeable pavement made from recycledglass, below, to treat stormwater that washes into MattituckCreek. Rain is “absorbed by the pavement, the bioswale fillsup and waters the plants very nicely,” she said.
Here’s onereason whyour air qualityisn’t great:
2.2Mthe number of carsregistered on LongIsland. That’s nearlyone car for each ofthe island’s 2.8Mresidents: men, womenand all the children whoaren’t old enough tohave a driver’s license.
How bad is it?It’s betterbut . . .
79The 2008 ozonemeasurement atBabylon that regulatorsuse to determine ifLong Island meetsfederal guidelines. In1980, the reading was110 parts per billion.The federalthreshold is 75.
Why weneed todo more toconserve H2O
160Kthe number ofgallons of water theaverage Long Islandhousehold uses eachyear. The EPA says thatthe average family offour can use 146,000gallons a year.
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Long Island Morethan3M tons3,275,449 tonsto be exact, isthe amountof garbage LIgenerates a year.
Nearly 20 years after mostLong Island landfills closedunder a law designed to pro-tect groundwater, the region’sgarbage disposal has settledinto a predictable groove:Some gets recycled, some isshipped to distant dumps, andthe bulk — around 40 percent— gets burned in local waste-to-energy plants.
But a new state plan thataims to dramatically scaleback the volume of trash sentto landfills and incineratorscould shake up the future ofgarbage on Long Island, whereresidents produce nearly 22percent more trash per capitathan the New York State aver-age. Among the proposals toreduce the amount of garbagesent to disposal by 90 percent:expanded compost programsthat accept food waste, crack-downs on reluctant recyclers,and scaled-back product pack-aging.
Responses to the state De-partment of EnvironmentalConservation plan have beenmixed on Long Island, whereadvocates’ enthusiasm has runup against skepticism fromsome local solid-waste manag-ers and industry groups. Sup-porters say composting andother programs are needed tokick recycling into high gear.But others question the needto limit out-of-state trash dis-posal and say incineratorsmake sense in a region with noactive municipal landfills.
“The state is pushing thetowns to think outside thebox, and that’s good,” said Mat-thew Miner, commissioner ofwaste management for theTown of Brookhaven and aformer DEC solid waste engi-neer. “But some of their ambi-tions may be a little lofty.”
Calculating exactly howmuch garbage Long Island pro-duces is a challenge. The re-gion has a mix of private andmunicipal transfer stationsthat take waste to recyclingcenters, incinerators and land-fills. Recent estimates rangefrom 3.2 million to 3.5 milliontons each year.
According to 2008 figuresfrom the DEC, Long Islanders
generate 6.27 pounds of gar-bage per capita per day, com-pared with 5.15 pounds per cap-ita statewide. Affluent areastend to produce more trash,but DEC officials said local fig-ures may be boosted by sum-mer residents and because sub-urbs produce more yard wastethan urban or rural areas.
Some solid-waste managersworried that the state plan willdrive up disposal costs — ashift that could exacerbateLong Island’s illegal dumpingproblem, in which construc-tion debris and other trashends up in woods, fields andunregulated landfills. Otherssaid composting could be hardto do on a large scale in thesuburbs because residents al-ready complain about odors
from the few existing siteshere. The DEC said indoorcomposting facilities wouldkeep a lid on noxious smells.
A few officials said theywere already looking intosome of the plan’s suggestions,such as pay-as-you-throw pro-grams that charge customersby the volume of trash dis-posed. But most said they ex-pected that a few decadesfrom now, Long Island wouldprobably still burn much of itstrash at the region’s four waste-to-energy plants and exportthe rest.
“I would love to see a great-er amount of recycling — thatincludes composting,” said theTown of Islip’s ChristopherAndrade, who oversees thetown’s 40-acre compost facili-
ty and also heads the agencyin charge of its incinerator.“But I believe that if we wantto deal with garbage in an envi-ronmentally responsible man-ner, waste-to-energy is part ofthat.”
It’s unclear whether existingplants built in the 1980s and’90s will ramp up operationsanytime soon. Proposed expan-sions of the Islip incineratorand the Covanta Hempstead fa-cility in Westbury have beenput on hold for now becauseof the economic slowdown,said John G. Waffenschmidt, avice president at Covanta Ener-gy, which manages the fourlocal plants.
Some here question the phi-losophy behind the state’s ap-proach — that recycling trash
It all comes downto the individual.Colleges shouldencouragestudents to makesmart decisions.”
additionalinfrastructure isclear, the challengebecomes locatingresources to makethat happen. . . .We all want tofacilitate economicgrowth in such away that we don’tcompromise ourresources.”
Peter Scully, regional directorof the state Department of
Environmental Conservation,said the region’s aging sewageplants must be maintained and
that communities reliant onseptic systems
need federal helppaying for newsewers to spur
economicgrowth.
THEWASTE
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State proposaltackles garbage,to mixed reviews
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THEREUSE
is preferable to throwing itaway. “We cannot change theAmerican consumer culturenor alter fundamentals of mate-rials use by banning landfills,”David Tonjes, a Stony Brookprofessor who studies trashand environmental manage-ment, said at a recent hearing.
In the meantime, changes arehappening town by town asmanagers tailor solid-wasteplans to suit their communities.In North Hempstead, some 500residents have signed up fortown-subsidized compost bins.“I’m not going to create a bigcompost facility in the middleof Great Neck,” said SupervisorJon Kaiman. “I think I canachieve goals the state is set-ting — maybe not in the waythey set out.”
Long Island has yetto reach the recyclingheights achieved byWest Coast communi-ties such as Portland,where more than 60
percent of the city’s trash ends up inthe recycling bin. But residents hererecycle a lot more cans, bottles andnewspapers than they did in 1988,when the state passed its first sweep-ing solid-waste law. And while LongIslanders generate more trash thanmost New Yorkers, they also have ahigher rate of recycling — in part be-cause they set out more yard wastefor collection than urban and ruralresidents.
Back when curbside recycling wasin its infancy, a 1988 Newsday analy-sis found that Long Island recycledabout 5.5 percent of its trash. Thatrate has since climbed to 23.8 per-cent — higher than the statewide av-erage of 20.3 percent, according tothe state Department of Environmen-tal Conservation.
“I remember growing up, myneighbors were saying they didn’twant to recycle because it was a has-sle,” said Adrienne Esposito, 49, exec-utive director of Citizens Campaignfor the Environment. “Now it’s justbecome something you do.”
Still, like the rest of New York,Long Island fell short of the state’s1987 goal of 50 percent recyclingand waste reduction by 1997. And itcontinues to come up short. Thereare plenty of residents, schools andbusinesses that don’t recycle at all,said the DEC’s Resa Dimino.
To fix that, the agency wants tosee more recycling bins in publicspaces, schools and workplaces. Adraft update of the state’s solid-waste plan released last spring callsfor stepped-up enforcement of localrecycling laws to help goose stag-nant recycling rates.
Some local solid-waste managerssay more work is needed to createmarkets for products like recycledglass, which is easily contaminatedand far less in demand than alumi-num or newspaper.
“You’ve got to have an end user,”said Phil Healey, director of the LongIsland Sanitation Officials Associa-tion and superintendent of publicworks for the village of Lynbrook. “Ifthere’s nobody to buy the stuff thenit just piles up.”
Average LIerproduces
22%more garbage
than the rest ofour fellow
New Yorkers. Wecreate 6.27 pounds
per day whilethe average NYer
generates 5.15.
A worker at the Townof Brookhaven’srecycling facility
Makingstrides inrecycling
JohnWaffenschmidt,a CovantaEnergy vicepresident, looksout at thetipping floor atthe town of theHempstead’sgarbageincinerator inWestbury.
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THE FUTURELong Island
NEXT MONTHTHE ECONOMYIDEASc What industries in thefuture will create jobson Long Island?c What’s the best wayto revitalize the localeconomy?c How do you see thefuture of Long Island’seconomy?c What other areasshould we explore?
PHOTOSSee a photo slide showof Long Island’s habitatsand wildlife.
SEEClick through photoscomparing familiarfaces and places from1978 and today
RELIVERead the originalCrossroads seriesthat ran in 1978
ENGAGEView the Long IslandIndex — interactive mapsallowing readers to com-pare statistics (housing,education, population,demographics) betweentheir community and therest of Long Island.
CONNECTLink to other Long Island-ers on Twitter and Face-book to discuss the past,present and future of LI.
If scientists studying climatechange are on the mark, River-head farmer Phil Schmitt oughtto consider the weather in Vir-ginia when planning his croplist in coming decades.
Warmer climate zones havebeen creeping northward in re-cent years and could transformLong Island to conditions muchnearer those of Virginia in 30years, scientists say. The num-ber of days above 90 and 100 de-grees has increased, along withmajor rain events and rising sealevels — all connected to cli-mate change that is expected tocontinue.
Federal and state officials saycoastal communities need tostart planning now to protectbuildings, wetlands, lowlandsand barrier islands. That couldmean limiting development inlow-lying areas and elevating ex-isting homes and infrastructureincluding roads and sewagetreatment plants. Public healthexperts caution warmer, wetterweather could also bring height-ened risk of West Nile virus andother mosquito-borne diseases.
By 2100, the average annualtemperature for New York is ex-pected to increase between 6.6and 9 degrees, depending onthe effectiveness of efforts tocurtail emissions, according to a2009 report by the New YorkCity Panel on Climate Change.The number of days above 90degrees could triple, from an av-erage of 14 a year to up to 45 by2050. By 2080, sea levels in andaround Manhattan are expectedto have risen 12 to 23 inches, ac-cording to the report. All predic-tions about the impact of cli-mate change are variable, andthe range of effects depends onthe success of efforts to curbgreenhouse gas emissions. Still,there’s little debate that effectsare already being felt.
Among current trends scien-tists and others cite:c Grapes in Long Island’s ex-panding vineyards are consis-tently budding weeks earlier,which could risk damage to thefruit of the vines from late frost,East End farmers and agricultur-al experts say.
c Crops are becoming morevulnerable to proliferatingpests, requiring better manage-ment and more chemical treat-ments, says Cornell University.c Rising seas pose acute prob-lems in coastal regions, partic-ularly during storm surges,and insurance companies havetaken note, according to anEPA official.c Rising water temperaturesare chasing once-thriving spe-cies such as lobsters and winterflounder from local waters, ac-cording to Stony Brook’s Ma-rine Sciences Research Center.c Higher temperatures have en-couraged proliferation of jelly-fish, sea squirts and starfish, insome cases pressuring otherspecies, according to CitizensCampaign for the Environment.
For Schmitt, who has doubtsthat global warming is at fault,growing lettuce has become par-ticularly challenging in recentyears — 90 percent of his 2009spring crop was wiped out bytorrential rains and humidweather. (Experts say extremerain events are part of the newnorm of climate change.)
One state scientist saidthere’s no doubting the trend.
“Spring is definitely comingearlier,” said David Wolfe, pro-fessor of horticulture at CornellUniversity who has served onstate panels examining the im-pact of warming on agriculture.The northward creep of south-ern climate zones brings with itchallenges and opportunities,he said. With warmer weatherand more moisture, farmers
should expect an extendedgrowing season, and more dis-eases, weeds and insects.
On the waters, the warmingtrend might cause a northwardshift in the habitat range forcold-water species. That couldmean the end of lobsters inLong Island Sound, said DavidConover, dean and director ofthe Marine Sciences ResearchCenter at Stony Brook Univer-sity.
And as waters warm, they arealso expected to continue ris-ing. “Long Island is particularlyvulnerable to sea level rise, andI think this is going to be a muchbigger problem than people real-ize,” said Judith Enck, regionaladministrator for the Environ-mental Protection Agency.
“I think in our generationwe’re going to be looking at im-pacts from sea level rise. . . . In-creased storm surge, flooding,”she said.
Long Islanders in coastalareas face loss of home insur-ance or prohibitive premiums.“The question of floods notbeing covered unless you haveflood insurance is going to be abig one,” said Neal Lewis, execu-tive director of the Sustainabili-ty Institute at Molloy College. “Ithink a lot of Long Islanders willhave to live with that risk.”
NOW ON
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Varying degrees of trouble
of THE FUTURE
Heatis on
64 The number of daysthat may exceed90˚F by the 2080s.
Between 1971-2000, the tri-state areaaveraged only 14 days/year above 90˚F.But a recent report says that number will steadily riseover the decades from 23-29 days in the 2020s and29-45 in the 2050s.SOURCE: NYC PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE.
/FUTURE
of
Farmer Phil Schmitt, surveying a field of horse radish on hisRiverhead farm, lost 90 percent of his spring crop in 2009.
