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Analyst Meeting 2Q09 Performance Friday 14 August 2009
Transcript
Page 1: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

Analyst Meeting2Q09 Performance

Friday 14 August 2009

Page 2: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

2

Agenda

2Q09 Management HighlightsOperation PerformanceCAPEX Financial PerformanceIndustry Outlooks

Page 3: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

3

2Q09 Highlights

Overview Improving in significantly economic numbers shown the trough of recession finally arrived but slow recovery.

Crude prices elevated resulting from better than expected in economic recovery, OPEC continuing production restraint, speculation, the unrest in Iran and Nigeria, and weaken USD.Outlook overview: Longer term recovery is expected though short-term difficulties exist

Refining: Tough time aheadPetrochemical: Stronger for polyolefins, slowdown for styrenics

2Q09 average crude run 70% at optimum level.Market GIM in 2Q09 at 3.2 $/bbl: Refinery -1 $/bbl, Petrochemical 4.2 $/bbl.

Finance S&P Ratings affirmed IRPC’s corporate credit rating and company's senior unsecured noted at “BBB-” with negative outlook and removed both ratings from Credit Watch.Fitch Ratings (Thailand) maintained IRPC’s National Long-Term rating at “A-” and National Short-term rating at “F2” with negative outlookTotal ESOP exercised until June 2009 was executed only 1.12% of total shares.

Operation EPCC Contractor under process for CHP Project; completion in 1Q11.Cost reduction program, 1H09 cost reduced by USD 16.3 million or 0.69 $/bbl. Engaged international business consultant for business model restructuring. To be concluded by the end of August 09

Page 4: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

4

Operation Performance

Page 5: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

5

89% 89% 89%83%

87%91% 93%

88%

82% 85% 83%88%

79%

66%

76% 78%73% 74%

80%

51%

29%

73% 70% 70% 71%

61%

90%85% 85%85%

86%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN. JUL. AUG. SEP. OCT. NOV. DEC. Y. AVG.0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 Crude run 2008 Crude run 2009 Crude run2007 % utilization 2008 % utilization 2009 % utilization

KBPCD

Refinery Capacity Utilization

Capacity Utilization

Petrochemical and Lube

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Ethyle

nePro

pylen

eBut

adien

e

Benze

ne

Tolue

neMixe

d Xy

lene

SM

HDPE PP

ABS/AS

PS

EPS L

ube B

ase O

il

Asp

halt

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Nameplate Capacity (LHS) Utilization 2008 (LHS) Utilization 2009 (LHS)

%Utilization 2007 (RHS) %Utilization 2008 (RHS) %Utilization 2009 (RHS)

Page 6: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

6

2Q09 GRM & PTF

Note: Based on Production

4.1 4.5 4.3

0.50.11.04.8

5.1 4.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1Q09 2Q09 1H09

233 185

321270 293

125

215

246

189

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1Q09 2Q09 1H09

0.8-1.2

-0.30.80.2

1.50.4

2.3

-1.0

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1Q09 2Q09 1H09

LubeRefined

Gross Refinery Margin$/BBL. MKT GRM A/C GRM$/BBL.

231 175

291

280285

106

206

247

155

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1Q09 2Q09 1H09

Styrenics

Olefin

Product to Feed$/Ton MKT PTF A/C PTF$/Ton

2.3-1.0 0.4

3.04.2 3.7

4.15.3

3.2

-202468

10121416

1Q09 2Q09 1H09

Refined Petchem

$/BBL

Gross Integrated Margin

5.1 4.5 4.8

3.3 4.6 4.1

8.88.49.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1Q09 2Q09 1H09

Refined Petchem

$/BBL

MKT GIM

A/C GIM

Page 7: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

7

32%

67% 67% 70% 64% 68%

33% 30% 33% 36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2Q08 1Q09 2Q09 1H08 1H09

64%64% 68%64% 66%

36% 34% 32% 36% 36%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2Q08 1Q09 2Q09 1H08 1H09

69%74% 67% 70% 73%

29% 26%25% 28%31%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2Q08 1Q09 2Q09 1H08 1H09

Petroleum Petrochemical Others

1H09 Product Sales Value by Market

33%

68%63% 69% 67% 67%

32%37% 33% 31%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2Q08 1Q09 2Q09 1H08 1H09

54,484 17,345 28,350 Unit:M.Baht18,499 8,192 11,300

Unit:M.Baht

Unit:M.Baht73,740 26,076 40,295

Unit:M.BahtSales Proportion

40,29526,07673,740

Domestic Export

134,997 66,371

98,590 45,695 34,956 19,493

134,997 66,371

Total Products Sales: Local vs Export

Oil products: Local vs Export Petrochemical products: Local vs Export

Page 8: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

8

1H09 Petroleum Product Sales

105 20

6

109

103

331

173

1,03

3

148

88

167

14566

1

226

101

266

847

199

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Diesel Mogas ATB/LR Naphtha Lube Others

2Q08 1Q09 2Q09 2068

355

707

177

210 42

4

1508

344 432

189 37

5

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Diesel Mogas ATB/LR Naphtha Lube Others

1H08 1H095,

400

6,27

5

2,61

9

3,26

0

3,18

09,62

4

2,60

3

1,61

7

1,91

3

1,58

8

14,5

36

4,63

7

3,20

2

1,44

9

1,91

2

2,64

2

33,7

50

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Diesel Mogas ATB/LR Naphtha Lube Others

2Q08 1Q09 2Q09

M. Liters M. Liters

M. Baht

12,0

68

4,36

7

5,90

5

6,02

1

24,1

61

7,24

0

4,81

9

1,44

9

3,82

5

4,22

9

10,2

03

60,0

27

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Diesel Mogas ATB/LR Naphtha Lube Others

1H08 1H09

M. Baht

Volume: M.Liters

Value: M.Baht

Page 9: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

9

1H09 Petrochemical Product Sales33

,279

24,4

70 39,6

70

51,7

25

84,2

04

32,0

94

31,6

37

23,4

32

23,3

31

54,8

03

53,0

38

14,4

1331,5

23

25,9

58

32,5

90 50,8

05 65,2

05

29,0

08

124,

744

88,8

7110

6,62

3

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

HDPE ABS PP PS Olefin BTX Others

2Q08 1Q09 2Q09

61,0

89

50,4

25

71,2

64 108,

819

160,

535

42,9

03

63,1

60

49,3

90

195,

494

55,9

21 105,

608

118,

243

34,6

38

240,

929

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

HDPE ABS PP PS Olefin BTX Others

1H08 1H09

1,71

1

1,51

9

6,47

8

1,93

3

2,43

5

2,97

2

1,45

1

961

952

2,87

1

671 1,

096

1,04

0

3611,

173

1,19

8

4,15

8

1,17

1

1,18

7

1,52

6

887

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

HDPE ABS PP PS Olefin BTX Others

2Q08 1Q09 2Q09

3,13

7

3,05

6

3,42

4 5,56

0

5,27

0

1,68

0

2,13

4

2,15

0

7,02

9

1,84

1

2,28

2

2,56

6

914

12,2

80

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

HDPE ABS PP PS Olefin BTX Others

1H08 1H09

Tons Tons

M.BahtM.Baht

Value: M.Baht

Volume: M.Tons

Page 10: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

10

CAPEX

Page 11: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

11

Future Project Progress: 2007-2012As of June 2009 CAPEX

Amount (Million USD)

Benefit/year (Million

USD/year)

Start Complete Progress Purpose / Remarks

Complete ProjectsHDPE Compound * 12.60 3 2Q07 1Q09 100% Increase capacity from 17 KTA to 57 KTA

ABS Expansion * 17.10 4 2Q07 1Q09 100% Increase capacity from 96 KTA to 117 KTA

Total 29.70 7

Phase IPower Plant * 220.00 39 2Q07 1Q11 45% CHP 216 MW for internal use, reduce power

& steam cost, improve power stability

Safety Improvement 39.00 n/a 2Q07 2011 26% Continual improvement

Total 259.00 53

Phase IIABS Expansion 6 * n/a n/a Increase capacity from 117 KTA to 200 KTA

New Reg_EURO IV n/a n/a Comply to regulation

Petroleum Improvement

n/a n/a Increase capacity from 215 to 265 kbpd & improve product slate

Propylene Booster * 88.00 n/a 2009 2011 Increase capacity by 100 KTA

Total 88.00

Grand Total 347.00

On Revision

On Revision

On Revision

* Note: Projects financed by THB 10,000 local bank term loan

Page 12: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

12

Substation

Project Progress: CHP

Overall Work progress 45%

Demineral water plant

Page 13: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

13

Financial Performance

Page 14: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

14

Financial HighlightsUnit: Million Baht 2Q09 2Q08 %YoY 1Q09 %QoQ 6m09 6m08 %YoYSales 40,295 73,740 -45.4% 26,076 54.5% 66,371 134,997 -50.8%Net Sales 36,776 71,521 -48.6% 24,047 52.9% 60,823 129,801 -53.1%Cost of Goods Sold (32,687) (63,912) (48.9) (25,874) 26.3 (58,562) (119,392) (51.0) Gross Profit 4,089 7,609 -46.3% (1,827) -323.7% 2,261 10,408 -78.3%Gross Margin 11.1% 10.6% -7.6% 3.7% 8.0%Other Revenue (172) 246 256 85 363 SG&A (753) (935) -19.4% (702) 7.3% (1,456) (1,717) -15.2%EBITDA before LCM 3,163 6,920 -54.3% (2,273) -239.2% 891 9,054 -90.2%EBITDA Margin 8.6% 9.7% -9.5% 1.5% 7.0%LCM 137 - 4,840 4,977 - EBITDA after LCM 3,300 6,920 -52.3% 2,567 28.6% 5,868 9,054 -35.2%Depre. & Amort. (831) (820) (800) (1,631) (1,637) EBIT 2,470 6,100 -59.5% 1,767 39.8% 4,237 7,417 -42.9%Net Financial Expenses (292) (247) (369) (661) (498) Pretax Profit 2,178 5,853 -62.8% 1,398 55.8% 3,576 6,919 -48.3%Taxes (17) (18) (15) (32) (27) Net Profit before Extra. 2,161 5,835 -63.0% 1,383 56.2% 3,544 6,891 -48.6%Doubtful Account 12 (7) 1 13 (16) FX. Gain/(Loss), Swap 49 (474) 194 (75.0) 243 479 (49.2) Investment Gain (Loss) 210 (257) 43 252 (624) Asset Gain (Loss) (5) 33 4 (1) 33 Other Expenses (3) (4) (3) (6) (9) Net Profit 2,423 5,126 -52.7% 1,621 49.4% 4,044 6,754 -40.1%No. Share (M.) 19,644 19,500 19,500 19,644 19,500 Norm. EPS 0.11 0.30 0.07 56.2% 0.18 0.35 -49.1%EPS 0.12 0.26 0.08 49.4% 0.21 0.35 -40.7%BV 3.64 4.90 3.59 3.64 4.90 8.9%

Page 15: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

15

Balance Sheet:

62,311

58,191

12,673

92,777

21,945

18,454

64,276

30,848

8,988

69,195

8,190

26,728

64,178

40,495

6,808

71,678

16,610

23,193

2007 2008 1H09

Interest Bearing Debt

Other Liabilities

Equities

Cash & S/T Investment

Other Assets

PP & E

Treasury policy :

Net Debt/Equity < 1.0x

Net Debt/EBITDA < 2.0x

133,175

111,481

Current Status

= 0.23x

= 1.4x

Unit: Million Baht

104,112

Page 16: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

16

Key Financial Ratios

Note: EBITDA before LCM

2Q09 2Q08 1Q09 6m09 6m08

Liquidity & Leverage Ratio (Times)Quick Ratio 1.02 0.93 1.34 1.02 0.93 Total IBD / Equity 0.32 0.30 0.36 0.32 0.30 Net IBD / Equity 0.23 0.25 0.20 0.23 0.25 Liabilities / Equity 0.56 0.56 0.51 0.56 0.56 Net IBD / EBITDA 1.40 1.32 1.37 1.40 1.32 IBD / EBITDA 1.98 1.58 2.46 1.98 1.58 EBITDA / Interest Exp. 10.27 25.95 7.21 8.66 15.62

Profitability RatioGross Profit Margin 11.1% 10.6% -7.6% 3.7% 8.0%EBITDA Margin 9.0% 9.7% 10.7% 9.6% 7.0%Net Profit Margin 6.6% 7.2% 6.7% 6.6% 5.2%ROE 11.3% 14.1% 9.2% 11.3% 14.1%ROCE 8.5% 10.9% 6.7% 8.5% 10.9%

Page 17: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

17

Industry Outlooks

Page 18: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

18

Industry Outlooks

High volatile by looming the marketBetter than expected economic numbers Demands recovery in Asia especially in ChinaWeak refinery margin take aback crude demandGeopolitical tension / strictly on OPEC production outputsUS Dollar depreciation

Crude OilUnstable & attached to economic state

Thin spread from shrinkage of demandCutback refining & swap product yield to heal market imbalance Weaken demand & continue to struggleFurther twist into alternative energy

Refined ProductsVery lean margin, challenge to survive

Prices driven by cost pushDemand rush back particularly in Asia Short capacity from cut run and turnaround Overhang concern from ME additional capacity

Petrochemical ProductsPace for a recovery

Page 19: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

19

Price : $/BBL

Note : 1. ULG95, GO 0.5%S & FO180 price from Platt’s (FOB Singapore).2. Dubai price from Platt’s (FOB source basis).

Refinery: Tough time ahead

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan06

Mar06

May06

Jul06

Sep06

Nov06

Jan07

Mar07

May07

Jul07

Sep07

Nov07

Jan08

Mar08

May08

Jul08

Sep08

Nov08

Jan09

Mar09

May09

Jul09

Sep09

Nov09

ULG 95 Gasoil HSFO Dubai20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan06

Mar06

May06

Jul06

Sep06

Nov06

Jan07

Mar07

May07

Jul07

Sep07

Nov07

Jan08

Mar08

May08

Jul08

Sep08

Nov08

Jan09

Mar09

May09

Jul09

Sep09

Nov09

ULG 95 Gasoil HSFO Dubai 30 S/BBL

80 S/BBL

$/BBL 2007 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 2008 1Q09 Apr09 May 09 Jun09 2Q09 Jul 09 1Aug09

Dubai 68.34 91.43 116.91 113.34 52.60 93.57 44.27 50.10 57.85 69.76 59.24 64.82 70.00

ULG 95 83.48 105.12 129.84 119.29 56.32 102.64 54.80 60.46 68.50 77.57 68.84 72.83 80.18

Gas Oil 0.5%S 85.53 114.36 154.47 139.02 70.25 119.53 53.19 58.09 64.06 76.57 66.24 71.08 76.88

Fuel Oil 180cst 57.61 73.21 90.93 100.62 43.95 77.18 38.27 43.84 52.41 60.93 52.39 60.82 65.06

2006 20082007 2009

Page 20: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

20

$/BBL 2007 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 2008 1Q09 Apr09 May 09 Jun09 2Q09 Jul 09 1Aug09

ULG 95 - Dubai 15.14 13.69 12.93 5.95 3.72 9.07 10.54 10.36 10.64 7.81 9.61 8.01 10.18Gas Oil 0.5%S

- Dubai17.19 22.93 37.56 25.68 17.65 25.96 8.83 7.99 6.21 6.81 7.00 6.27 6.88

Fuel Oil 180cst

- Dubai-10.73 -18.22 -25.98 -12.72 -8.64 -16.39 --5.98 -6.26 -5.45 -8.83 -6.84 -4.00 4.94

Price : $/BBL

Spread: More clamped

6.506.307.779.1410.568.827.956.095.447.489.62

6.015.836.558.4710.137.546.65

4.624.068.37

6.341.423.34

6.137.063.405.254.083.002.40

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-0

7Fe

b-07

Mar

-07

Apr-0

7M

ay-0

7Ju

n-07

Jul-0

7Aug

-07

Sep-0

7Oct-

07Nov

-07

Dec-0

7Ja

n-08

Feb-0

8M

ar-0

8Apr

-08

May

-08

Jun-0

8Ju

l-08

Aug-0

8Se

p-08

Oct-08

Nov-0

8Dec

-08

Jan-0

9Fe

b-09

Mar

-09

Apr-0

9M

ay-0

9Ju

n-09

Jul-0

9

S'pore GRM

ULG 95 -Dubai

Gas Oil 0.5%S - Dubai

FO 180 - Dubai

20082007 2009

Page 21: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

21

$/MT 2007 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 2008 1Q09 Apr09 May09 Jun09 2Q09 Jul09

Naphtha 704 880 1,049 1,020 357 827 431 456 499 613 523 581

Ethylene 1,179 1,240 1,385 1,379 543 1,137 626 678 704 846 743 1,015

Propylene 1,153 1,293 1,523 1,572 626 1,254 672 815 752 823 797 997

HDPE 1,331 1,572 1,670 1,670 869 1,445 920 1,069 1,117 1,190 1,125 1,206

PP 1,334 1,508 1,732 1,785 828 1,463 878 1,065 1,089 1,122 1,092 1,171

-200

0

200

400

600

Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09

Polyolefins: Price driven by cost push

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

Jan 06 Mar 06 May 06 Jul 06 Sep 06 Nov 06 Jan 07 Mar 07 May 07 Jul 07 Sep 07 Nov 07 Jan 08 Mar 08 May 08 Jul 08 Sep 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 May 09 Jul 09

Ethylene Propylene HDPE PP

Source: ICIS

Naphtha

USD/MT

PP-PropyleneHDPE-Ethylene

Note : 1. HDPE , PP, Ethylene & Propylene price from ICIS LOR (CFR SEA) .2. Naphtha price from ICIS LOR (CFR Japan)

2006 20082007 2009

Page 22: 2Q09 Performance - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/AnalystQ209.pdf · Operation Performance ... Refinery Capacity Utilization. Capacity Utilization. Petrochemical

22

$/MT 2007 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 2008 1Q09 Apr09 May09 Jun09 2Q09 Jul09

Naphtha 704 880 1,049 1,020 357 827 431 456 499 613 523 581

Styrene 1,356 1,402 1,549 1,523 701 1,294 745 1,001 912 1,029 981 1,088

PS 1,459 1,478 1,639 1,724 1,030 1,468 885 1,146 1,067 1,113 1,108 1,234

ABS 1,700 1,782 1,952 2,129 1,462 1,831 1,103 1,364 1,351 1,388 1,367 1,399

EPS 1,512 1,519 1,705 1,765 993 1,496 888 1,158 1,052 1,119 1,109 1,225

Polystyrenics: Continuing sluggish demand

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

Jan 06 Mar 06 May 06 Jul 06 Sep 06 Nov 06 Jan 07 Mar 07 May 07 Jul 07 Sep 07 Nov 07 Jan 08 Mar 08 May 08 Jul 08 Sep 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 May 09 Jul 09

Styrene PS ABS EPS

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09

Naphtha

ABS-Feed ABS PS-Styrene

Note : 1. PS, ABS, EPS & Styrene price from ICIS LOR (CFR SEA)2. Naphtha price from ICIS LOR (CFR Japan).

USD/MT Source: ICIS

2006 20082007 2009

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World Economic: Weak recovery ahead

2008 2009F 2010F 2008 2009F 2010FG7 0.6 -4.5 0.3 G7 0.6 -3.9 1.0--US 1.1 -3.9 0.6 --US 1.1 -2.8 1.2--Japan -0.7 -8.7 -1.9 --Japan -0.7 -7.0 0.3--Euroland 0.7 -3.4 0.3 --Euroland 0.6 -4.3 0.8

EM Asia 6.8 3.6 5.5 EM Asia 6.8 4.2 5.8--China 9.0 7.0 6.6 --China 9.0 8.3 7.8--India 7.3 4.6 6.1 --India 7.3 5.5 6.0EMEA 4.3 -1.8 3.7 EMEA 4.3 -3.3 2.9--Russia 5.6 -2.4 4.0 --Russia 5.6 -4.4 1.8Latam 4.4 -1.3 2.9 Latam 4.4 -2.3 3.0--Brazil 5.4 -1.0 3.5 --Brazil 5.4 -1.0 4.0

Industrial countries 0.7 -4.2 0.3

Industrial countries 0.7 -3.8 1.0

EM countries 5.8 1.4 4.5

EM countries 5.8 1.4 4.5

Global 2.8 -1.9 2.0 Global 2.9 -1.5 2.5

GDP growth, % GDP growth, %

Note: Comparing to the previous “World Outlook” reported in March 2009Sources: Deutsche Bank, TISCO Research

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Demand Growth from China

Source: Norwegian Energy, Morgan Stanley Commodity Research

Refined Products Petrochemical Products

Source: ICIS Report

Tons

Polymer Imports to China

700,000

900,000

1,100,000

1,300,000

1,500,000

1,700,000

January February March April May June

20082009

All time high

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