Analyst Meeting2Q09 Performance
Friday 14 August 2009
2
Agenda
2Q09 Management HighlightsOperation PerformanceCAPEX Financial PerformanceIndustry Outlooks
3
2Q09 Highlights
Overview Improving in significantly economic numbers shown the trough of recession finally arrived but slow recovery.
Crude prices elevated resulting from better than expected in economic recovery, OPEC continuing production restraint, speculation, the unrest in Iran and Nigeria, and weaken USD.Outlook overview: Longer term recovery is expected though short-term difficulties exist
Refining: Tough time aheadPetrochemical: Stronger for polyolefins, slowdown for styrenics
2Q09 average crude run 70% at optimum level.Market GIM in 2Q09 at 3.2 $/bbl: Refinery -1 $/bbl, Petrochemical 4.2 $/bbl.
Finance S&P Ratings affirmed IRPC’s corporate credit rating and company's senior unsecured noted at “BBB-” with negative outlook and removed both ratings from Credit Watch.Fitch Ratings (Thailand) maintained IRPC’s National Long-Term rating at “A-” and National Short-term rating at “F2” with negative outlookTotal ESOP exercised until June 2009 was executed only 1.12% of total shares.
Operation EPCC Contractor under process for CHP Project; completion in 1Q11.Cost reduction program, 1H09 cost reduced by USD 16.3 million or 0.69 $/bbl. Engaged international business consultant for business model restructuring. To be concluded by the end of August 09
4
Operation Performance
5
89% 89% 89%83%
87%91% 93%
88%
82% 85% 83%88%
79%
66%
76% 78%73% 74%
80%
51%
29%
73% 70% 70% 71%
61%
90%85% 85%85%
86%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN. JUL. AUG. SEP. OCT. NOV. DEC. Y. AVG.0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 Crude run 2008 Crude run 2009 Crude run2007 % utilization 2008 % utilization 2009 % utilization
KBPCD
Refinery Capacity Utilization
Capacity Utilization
Petrochemical and Lube
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Ethyle
nePro
pylen
eBut
adien
e
Benze
ne
Tolue
neMixe
d Xy
lene
SM
HDPE PP
ABS/AS
PS
EPS L
ube B
ase O
il
Asp
halt
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Nameplate Capacity (LHS) Utilization 2008 (LHS) Utilization 2009 (LHS)
%Utilization 2007 (RHS) %Utilization 2008 (RHS) %Utilization 2009 (RHS)
6
2Q09 GRM & PTF
Note: Based on Production
4.1 4.5 4.3
0.50.11.04.8
5.1 4.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1Q09 2Q09 1H09
233 185
321270 293
125
215
246
189
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1Q09 2Q09 1H09
0.8-1.2
-0.30.80.2
1.50.4
2.3
-1.0
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1Q09 2Q09 1H09
LubeRefined
Gross Refinery Margin$/BBL. MKT GRM A/C GRM$/BBL.
231 175
291
280285
106
206
247
155
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1Q09 2Q09 1H09
Styrenics
Olefin
Product to Feed$/Ton MKT PTF A/C PTF$/Ton
2.3-1.0 0.4
3.04.2 3.7
4.15.3
3.2
-202468
10121416
1Q09 2Q09 1H09
Refined Petchem
$/BBL
Gross Integrated Margin
5.1 4.5 4.8
3.3 4.6 4.1
8.88.49.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1Q09 2Q09 1H09
Refined Petchem
$/BBL
MKT GIM
A/C GIM
7
32%
67% 67% 70% 64% 68%
33% 30% 33% 36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2Q08 1Q09 2Q09 1H08 1H09
64%64% 68%64% 66%
36% 34% 32% 36% 36%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2Q08 1Q09 2Q09 1H08 1H09
69%74% 67% 70% 73%
29% 26%25% 28%31%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2Q08 1Q09 2Q09 1H08 1H09
Petroleum Petrochemical Others
1H09 Product Sales Value by Market
33%
68%63% 69% 67% 67%
32%37% 33% 31%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2Q08 1Q09 2Q09 1H08 1H09
54,484 17,345 28,350 Unit:M.Baht18,499 8,192 11,300
Unit:M.Baht
Unit:M.Baht73,740 26,076 40,295
Unit:M.BahtSales Proportion
40,29526,07673,740
Domestic Export
134,997 66,371
98,590 45,695 34,956 19,493
134,997 66,371
Total Products Sales: Local vs Export
Oil products: Local vs Export Petrochemical products: Local vs Export
8
1H09 Petroleum Product Sales
105 20
6
109
103
331
173
1,03
3
148
88
167
14566
1
226
101
266
847
199
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Diesel Mogas ATB/LR Naphtha Lube Others
2Q08 1Q09 2Q09 2068
355
707
177
210 42
4
1508
344 432
189 37
5
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Diesel Mogas ATB/LR Naphtha Lube Others
1H08 1H095,
400
6,27
5
2,61
9
3,26
0
3,18
09,62
4
2,60
3
1,61
7
1,91
3
1,58
8
14,5
36
4,63
7
3,20
2
1,44
9
1,91
2
2,64
2
33,7
50
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Diesel Mogas ATB/LR Naphtha Lube Others
2Q08 1Q09 2Q09
M. Liters M. Liters
M. Baht
12,0
68
4,36
7
5,90
5
6,02
1
24,1
61
7,24
0
4,81
9
1,44
9
3,82
5
4,22
9
10,2
03
60,0
27
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Diesel Mogas ATB/LR Naphtha Lube Others
1H08 1H09
M. Baht
Volume: M.Liters
Value: M.Baht
9
1H09 Petrochemical Product Sales33
,279
24,4
70 39,6
70
51,7
25
84,2
04
32,0
94
31,6
37
23,4
32
23,3
31
54,8
03
53,0
38
14,4
1331,5
23
25,9
58
32,5
90 50,8
05 65,2
05
29,0
08
124,
744
88,8
7110
6,62
3
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
HDPE ABS PP PS Olefin BTX Others
2Q08 1Q09 2Q09
61,0
89
50,4
25
71,2
64 108,
819
160,
535
42,9
03
63,1
60
49,3
90
195,
494
55,9
21 105,
608
118,
243
34,6
38
240,
929
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
HDPE ABS PP PS Olefin BTX Others
1H08 1H09
1,71
1
1,51
9
6,47
8
1,93
3
2,43
5
2,97
2
1,45
1
961
952
2,87
1
671 1,
096
1,04
0
3611,
173
1,19
8
4,15
8
1,17
1
1,18
7
1,52
6
887
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
HDPE ABS PP PS Olefin BTX Others
2Q08 1Q09 2Q09
3,13
7
3,05
6
3,42
4 5,56
0
5,27
0
1,68
0
2,13
4
2,15
0
7,02
9
1,84
1
2,28
2
2,56
6
914
12,2
80
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
HDPE ABS PP PS Olefin BTX Others
1H08 1H09
Tons Tons
M.BahtM.Baht
Value: M.Baht
Volume: M.Tons
10
CAPEX
11
Future Project Progress: 2007-2012As of June 2009 CAPEX
Amount (Million USD)
Benefit/year (Million
USD/year)
Start Complete Progress Purpose / Remarks
Complete ProjectsHDPE Compound * 12.60 3 2Q07 1Q09 100% Increase capacity from 17 KTA to 57 KTA
ABS Expansion * 17.10 4 2Q07 1Q09 100% Increase capacity from 96 KTA to 117 KTA
Total 29.70 7
Phase IPower Plant * 220.00 39 2Q07 1Q11 45% CHP 216 MW for internal use, reduce power
& steam cost, improve power stability
Safety Improvement 39.00 n/a 2Q07 2011 26% Continual improvement
Total 259.00 53
Phase IIABS Expansion 6 * n/a n/a Increase capacity from 117 KTA to 200 KTA
New Reg_EURO IV n/a n/a Comply to regulation
Petroleum Improvement
n/a n/a Increase capacity from 215 to 265 kbpd & improve product slate
Propylene Booster * 88.00 n/a 2009 2011 Increase capacity by 100 KTA
Total 88.00
Grand Total 347.00
On Revision
On Revision
On Revision
* Note: Projects financed by THB 10,000 local bank term loan
12
Substation
Project Progress: CHP
Overall Work progress 45%
Demineral water plant
13
Financial Performance
14
Financial HighlightsUnit: Million Baht 2Q09 2Q08 %YoY 1Q09 %QoQ 6m09 6m08 %YoYSales 40,295 73,740 -45.4% 26,076 54.5% 66,371 134,997 -50.8%Net Sales 36,776 71,521 -48.6% 24,047 52.9% 60,823 129,801 -53.1%Cost of Goods Sold (32,687) (63,912) (48.9) (25,874) 26.3 (58,562) (119,392) (51.0) Gross Profit 4,089 7,609 -46.3% (1,827) -323.7% 2,261 10,408 -78.3%Gross Margin 11.1% 10.6% -7.6% 3.7% 8.0%Other Revenue (172) 246 256 85 363 SG&A (753) (935) -19.4% (702) 7.3% (1,456) (1,717) -15.2%EBITDA before LCM 3,163 6,920 -54.3% (2,273) -239.2% 891 9,054 -90.2%EBITDA Margin 8.6% 9.7% -9.5% 1.5% 7.0%LCM 137 - 4,840 4,977 - EBITDA after LCM 3,300 6,920 -52.3% 2,567 28.6% 5,868 9,054 -35.2%Depre. & Amort. (831) (820) (800) (1,631) (1,637) EBIT 2,470 6,100 -59.5% 1,767 39.8% 4,237 7,417 -42.9%Net Financial Expenses (292) (247) (369) (661) (498) Pretax Profit 2,178 5,853 -62.8% 1,398 55.8% 3,576 6,919 -48.3%Taxes (17) (18) (15) (32) (27) Net Profit before Extra. 2,161 5,835 -63.0% 1,383 56.2% 3,544 6,891 -48.6%Doubtful Account 12 (7) 1 13 (16) FX. Gain/(Loss), Swap 49 (474) 194 (75.0) 243 479 (49.2) Investment Gain (Loss) 210 (257) 43 252 (624) Asset Gain (Loss) (5) 33 4 (1) 33 Other Expenses (3) (4) (3) (6) (9) Net Profit 2,423 5,126 -52.7% 1,621 49.4% 4,044 6,754 -40.1%No. Share (M.) 19,644 19,500 19,500 19,644 19,500 Norm. EPS 0.11 0.30 0.07 56.2% 0.18 0.35 -49.1%EPS 0.12 0.26 0.08 49.4% 0.21 0.35 -40.7%BV 3.64 4.90 3.59 3.64 4.90 8.9%
15
Balance Sheet:
62,311
58,191
12,673
92,777
21,945
18,454
64,276
30,848
8,988
69,195
8,190
26,728
64,178
40,495
6,808
71,678
16,610
23,193
2007 2008 1H09
Interest Bearing Debt
Other Liabilities
Equities
Cash & S/T Investment
Other Assets
PP & E
Treasury policy :
Net Debt/Equity < 1.0x
Net Debt/EBITDA < 2.0x
133,175
111,481
Current Status
= 0.23x
= 1.4x
Unit: Million Baht
104,112
16
Key Financial Ratios
Note: EBITDA before LCM
2Q09 2Q08 1Q09 6m09 6m08
Liquidity & Leverage Ratio (Times)Quick Ratio 1.02 0.93 1.34 1.02 0.93 Total IBD / Equity 0.32 0.30 0.36 0.32 0.30 Net IBD / Equity 0.23 0.25 0.20 0.23 0.25 Liabilities / Equity 0.56 0.56 0.51 0.56 0.56 Net IBD / EBITDA 1.40 1.32 1.37 1.40 1.32 IBD / EBITDA 1.98 1.58 2.46 1.98 1.58 EBITDA / Interest Exp. 10.27 25.95 7.21 8.66 15.62
Profitability RatioGross Profit Margin 11.1% 10.6% -7.6% 3.7% 8.0%EBITDA Margin 9.0% 9.7% 10.7% 9.6% 7.0%Net Profit Margin 6.6% 7.2% 6.7% 6.6% 5.2%ROE 11.3% 14.1% 9.2% 11.3% 14.1%ROCE 8.5% 10.9% 6.7% 8.5% 10.9%
17
Industry Outlooks
18
Industry Outlooks
High volatile by looming the marketBetter than expected economic numbers Demands recovery in Asia especially in ChinaWeak refinery margin take aback crude demandGeopolitical tension / strictly on OPEC production outputsUS Dollar depreciation
Crude OilUnstable & attached to economic state
Thin spread from shrinkage of demandCutback refining & swap product yield to heal market imbalance Weaken demand & continue to struggleFurther twist into alternative energy
Refined ProductsVery lean margin, challenge to survive
Prices driven by cost pushDemand rush back particularly in Asia Short capacity from cut run and turnaround Overhang concern from ME additional capacity
Petrochemical ProductsPace for a recovery
19
Price : $/BBL
Note : 1. ULG95, GO 0.5%S & FO180 price from Platt’s (FOB Singapore).2. Dubai price from Platt’s (FOB source basis).
Refinery: Tough time ahead
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan06
Mar06
May06
Jul06
Sep06
Nov06
Jan07
Mar07
May07
Jul07
Sep07
Nov07
Jan08
Mar08
May08
Jul08
Sep08
Nov08
Jan09
Mar09
May09
Jul09
Sep09
Nov09
ULG 95 Gasoil HSFO Dubai20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan06
Mar06
May06
Jul06
Sep06
Nov06
Jan07
Mar07
May07
Jul07
Sep07
Nov07
Jan08
Mar08
May08
Jul08
Sep08
Nov08
Jan09
Mar09
May09
Jul09
Sep09
Nov09
ULG 95 Gasoil HSFO Dubai 30 S/BBL
80 S/BBL
$/BBL 2007 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 2008 1Q09 Apr09 May 09 Jun09 2Q09 Jul 09 1Aug09
Dubai 68.34 91.43 116.91 113.34 52.60 93.57 44.27 50.10 57.85 69.76 59.24 64.82 70.00
ULG 95 83.48 105.12 129.84 119.29 56.32 102.64 54.80 60.46 68.50 77.57 68.84 72.83 80.18
Gas Oil 0.5%S 85.53 114.36 154.47 139.02 70.25 119.53 53.19 58.09 64.06 76.57 66.24 71.08 76.88
Fuel Oil 180cst 57.61 73.21 90.93 100.62 43.95 77.18 38.27 43.84 52.41 60.93 52.39 60.82 65.06
2006 20082007 2009
20
$/BBL 2007 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 2008 1Q09 Apr09 May 09 Jun09 2Q09 Jul 09 1Aug09
ULG 95 - Dubai 15.14 13.69 12.93 5.95 3.72 9.07 10.54 10.36 10.64 7.81 9.61 8.01 10.18Gas Oil 0.5%S
- Dubai17.19 22.93 37.56 25.68 17.65 25.96 8.83 7.99 6.21 6.81 7.00 6.27 6.88
Fuel Oil 180cst
- Dubai-10.73 -18.22 -25.98 -12.72 -8.64 -16.39 --5.98 -6.26 -5.45 -8.83 -6.84 -4.00 4.94
Price : $/BBL
Spread: More clamped
6.506.307.779.1410.568.827.956.095.447.489.62
6.015.836.558.4710.137.546.65
4.624.068.37
6.341.423.34
6.137.063.405.254.083.002.40
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan-0
7Fe
b-07
Mar
-07
Apr-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
n-07
Jul-0
7Aug
-07
Sep-0
7Oct-
07Nov
-07
Dec-0
7Ja
n-08
Feb-0
8M
ar-0
8Apr
-08
May
-08
Jun-0
8Ju
l-08
Aug-0
8Se
p-08
Oct-08
Nov-0
8Dec
-08
Jan-0
9Fe
b-09
Mar
-09
Apr-0
9M
ay-0
9Ju
n-09
Jul-0
9
S'pore GRM
ULG 95 -Dubai
Gas Oil 0.5%S - Dubai
FO 180 - Dubai
20082007 2009
21
$/MT 2007 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 2008 1Q09 Apr09 May09 Jun09 2Q09 Jul09
Naphtha 704 880 1,049 1,020 357 827 431 456 499 613 523 581
Ethylene 1,179 1,240 1,385 1,379 543 1,137 626 678 704 846 743 1,015
Propylene 1,153 1,293 1,523 1,572 626 1,254 672 815 752 823 797 997
HDPE 1,331 1,572 1,670 1,670 869 1,445 920 1,069 1,117 1,190 1,125 1,206
PP 1,334 1,508 1,732 1,785 828 1,463 878 1,065 1,089 1,122 1,092 1,171
-200
0
200
400
600
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09
Polyolefins: Price driven by cost push
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
Jan 06 Mar 06 May 06 Jul 06 Sep 06 Nov 06 Jan 07 Mar 07 May 07 Jul 07 Sep 07 Nov 07 Jan 08 Mar 08 May 08 Jul 08 Sep 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 May 09 Jul 09
Ethylene Propylene HDPE PP
Source: ICIS
Naphtha
USD/MT
PP-PropyleneHDPE-Ethylene
Note : 1. HDPE , PP, Ethylene & Propylene price from ICIS LOR (CFR SEA) .2. Naphtha price from ICIS LOR (CFR Japan)
2006 20082007 2009
22
$/MT 2007 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 2008 1Q09 Apr09 May09 Jun09 2Q09 Jul09
Naphtha 704 880 1,049 1,020 357 827 431 456 499 613 523 581
Styrene 1,356 1,402 1,549 1,523 701 1,294 745 1,001 912 1,029 981 1,088
PS 1,459 1,478 1,639 1,724 1,030 1,468 885 1,146 1,067 1,113 1,108 1,234
ABS 1,700 1,782 1,952 2,129 1,462 1,831 1,103 1,364 1,351 1,388 1,367 1,399
EPS 1,512 1,519 1,705 1,765 993 1,496 888 1,158 1,052 1,119 1,109 1,225
Polystyrenics: Continuing sluggish demand
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
Jan 06 Mar 06 May 06 Jul 06 Sep 06 Nov 06 Jan 07 Mar 07 May 07 Jul 07 Sep 07 Nov 07 Jan 08 Mar 08 May 08 Jul 08 Sep 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 May 09 Jul 09
Styrene PS ABS EPS
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09
Naphtha
ABS-Feed ABS PS-Styrene
Note : 1. PS, ABS, EPS & Styrene price from ICIS LOR (CFR SEA)2. Naphtha price from ICIS LOR (CFR Japan).
USD/MT Source: ICIS
2006 20082007 2009
23
World Economic: Weak recovery ahead
2008 2009F 2010F 2008 2009F 2010FG7 0.6 -4.5 0.3 G7 0.6 -3.9 1.0--US 1.1 -3.9 0.6 --US 1.1 -2.8 1.2--Japan -0.7 -8.7 -1.9 --Japan -0.7 -7.0 0.3--Euroland 0.7 -3.4 0.3 --Euroland 0.6 -4.3 0.8
EM Asia 6.8 3.6 5.5 EM Asia 6.8 4.2 5.8--China 9.0 7.0 6.6 --China 9.0 8.3 7.8--India 7.3 4.6 6.1 --India 7.3 5.5 6.0EMEA 4.3 -1.8 3.7 EMEA 4.3 -3.3 2.9--Russia 5.6 -2.4 4.0 --Russia 5.6 -4.4 1.8Latam 4.4 -1.3 2.9 Latam 4.4 -2.3 3.0--Brazil 5.4 -1.0 3.5 --Brazil 5.4 -1.0 4.0
Industrial countries 0.7 -4.2 0.3
Industrial countries 0.7 -3.8 1.0
EM countries 5.8 1.4 4.5
EM countries 5.8 1.4 4.5
Global 2.8 -1.9 2.0 Global 2.9 -1.5 2.5
GDP growth, % GDP growth, %
Note: Comparing to the previous “World Outlook” reported in March 2009Sources: Deutsche Bank, TISCO Research
24
Demand Growth from China
Source: Norwegian Energy, Morgan Stanley Commodity Research
Refined Products Petrochemical Products
Source: ICIS Report
Tons
Polymer Imports to China
700,000
900,000
1,100,000
1,300,000
1,500,000
1,700,000
January February March April May June
20082009
All time high
25
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