RETAIL RESEARCH Weekly Statistics Key Indices 07-August % Chg Sensex 28236 +0.43 Nifty 8565 +0.37 DJIA 17373 -1.79 Nasdaq 5044 -1.65 FTSE 6719 +0.33 DAX 11491 +1.61 Hang Seng 24552 -0.34 Nikkei 20725 +0.68 Bovespa 48577 -4.50 Indonesia Jakarta 4770 -0.67 Singapore – Strait 3197 -0.18 MSCI Emerging Mkt 885 -1.84 MSCI World 1747 -1.03 Mutual Fund Categories watch Category Name 1 Week Absolute 1 Month Absolute 3 Months Absolute 6 Months Absolute 1 Year CAGR 3 Years CAGR Arbitrage Funds 0.12 0.48 1.67 3.93 7.95 8.47 Balanced - Debt 0.18 1.01 3.30 2.67 12.76 13.21 Balanced - Equity 0.91 2.09 7.10 3.80 20.22 20.67 Equity - Banking 0.85 1.03 10.27 1.42 26.75 20.77 Equity – Div Yield 1.20 3.47 9.94 5.33 23.96 22.23 Equity - Infras 1.38 2.79 11.17 6.64 21.73 19.98 Equity - LARGE 1.19 2.60 9.83 3.96 22.45 21.50 Equity - MID 1.53 5.00 14.72 11.68 38.49 34.06 Equity - MULTI 1.28 3.10 10.58 5.67 25.86 24.13 Equity - SMALL 2.02 5.44 14.71 10.78 37.89 33.07 Equity - FMCG 0.35 3.30 8.76 2.79 25.19 20.25 Equity - Infotech 0.53 5.57 8.34 -1.45 17.04 27.61 Equity - Pharma 2.61 3.58 10.99 16.64 45.64 34.45 ELSS 1.42 2.99 10.61 5.36 25.26 24.63 Gold ETFs 0.60 -5.89 -8.11 -11.25 -13.65 -7.16 Gilt Funds 0.10 0.56 1.50 1.30 12.57 8.94 Income Funds 0.11 0.70 1.87 2.52 10.58 8.66 Liquid Funds 0.14 0.63 1.93 3.96 8.21 8.47 MIP 0.37 1.08 3.30 3.10 12.50 10.61 Short Term Income 0.13 0.78 2.26 3.94 9.67 9.00 Note: Trailing Returns up to 1 year are absolute and over 1 year are CAGR. NAV/index values are as on Aug 07, 2015. Equity Markets Key benchmark indices registered modest gains in what was a volatile trading week. The market sentiment was upbeat as retirement fund manager Employees Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) entered the stock market through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) route from Thursday, 6 August 2015, four months after it decided to invest in equities. The gains were, however, capped by India's weather office predicting below normal rains during the second half of southwest monsoon season (August to September), with a probability of 86%. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its benchmark lending rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 7.25% after a monetary policy review on Tuesday, 4 August 2015. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.43% to settle at 28,236.39 last week. The 50-unit CNX Nifty rose 0.37% to settle at 8,564.60. Broader market depicted strength. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index rose 2.52% to settle at 11,557.52. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 2.31% to settle at 12,104.47. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex. Outlook for the current weeks The last batch of Q1 June 2015 corporate earnings, macroeconomic data, progress of monsoon rains, developments during the monsoon session of parliament, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses in the coming week. The Q1 June 2015 corporate earnings season concludes next week. Among key macroeconomic announcements, the government is scheduled to unveil the consumer price index (CPI) data for the month of July 2015 and industrial production data for June 2015 on Wednesday, 12 July 2015. The government will release data on inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) for July 2015 on Friday, 14 August 2015. Global Markets U.S. stocks fell, leaving indexes with the biggest weekly losses in months. Over the past week, investors sold stocks as disappointing earnings results from companies such as Apple Inc. AAPL, +0.34% Caterpillar CAT, -0.22% and IBMIBM, -0.77% as well as a dramatic selloff in commodities, brought back concerns over slowing growth in the global economy. The S&P 500 closed, lower at 2,079.65, booking a 2.2% weekly loss. The weekly decline for the benchmark was the steepest since March. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.1%, to 5,044, ending the week with a 1.65% weekly loss. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.7%, to 17,568.53 weekly loss. RETAIL RESEARCH Aug 08, 2015 Weekly Mutual Fund and Debt Report
Transcript
RETAIL RESEARCH
Weekly Statistics
Key Indices 07-August % Chg
Sensex 28236 +0.43
Nifty 8565 +0.37
DJIA 17373 -1.79
Nasdaq 5044 -1.65
FTSE 6719 +0.33
DAX 11491 +1.61
Hang Seng 24552 -0.34
Nikkei 20725 +0.68
Bovespa 48577 -4.50
Indonesia Jakarta 4770 -0.67
Singapore – Strait 3197 -0.18
MSCI Emerging Mkt 885 -1.84
MSCI World 1747 -1.03
Mutual Fund Categories watch
Category Name 1 Week
Absolute
1 Month
Absolute
3 Months
Absolute
6 Months
Absolute
1 Year
CAGR
3 Years
CAGR
Arbitrage Funds 0.12 0.48 1.67 3.93 7.95 8.47
Balanced - Debt 0.18 1.01 3.30 2.67 12.76 13.21
Balanced - Equity 0.91 2.09 7.10 3.80 20.22 20.67
Equity - Banking 0.85 1.03 10.27 1.42 26.75 20.77
Equity – Div Yield 1.20 3.47 9.94 5.33 23.96 22.23
Note: Trailing Returns up to 1 year are absolute and over 1 year are CAGR. NAV/index values are as on Aug 07, 2015.
Equity Markets
Key benchmark indices registered modest gains in what was a volatile trading week. The market sentiment was upbeat as retirement fund manager Employees Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) entered the stock market through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) route from Thursday, 6 August 2015, four months after it decided to invest in equities. The gains were, however, capped by India's weather office predicting below normal rains during the second half of southwest monsoon season (August to September), with a probability of 86%. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its benchmark lending rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 7.25% after a monetary policy review on Tuesday, 4 August 2015. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.43% to settle at 28,236.39 last week. The 50-unit CNX Nifty rose 0.37% to settle at 8,564.60. Broader market depicted strength. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index rose 2.52% to settle at 11,557.52. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 2.31% to settle at 12,104.47. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.
Outlook for the current weeks The last batch of Q1 June 2015 corporate earnings, macroeconomic data, progress of monsoon rains, developments during the monsoon session of parliament, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses in the coming week. The Q1 June 2015 corporate earnings season concludes next week. Among key macroeconomic announcements, the government is scheduled to unveil the consumer price index (CPI) data for the month of July 2015 and industrial production data for June 2015 on Wednesday, 12 July 2015. The government will release data on inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) for July 2015 on Friday, 14 August 2015.
Global Markets
U.S. stocks fell, leaving indexes with the biggest weekly losses in months. Over the past week, investors sold stocks as disappointing earnings results from companies such as Apple Inc. AAPL, +0.34% Caterpillar CAT, -0.22% and IBMIBM, -0.77% as well as a dramatic selloff in commodities, brought back concerns over slowing growth in the global economy. The S&P 500 closed, lower at 2,079.65, booking a 2.2% weekly loss. The weekly decline for the benchmark was the steepest since March. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.1%, to 5,044, ending the week with a 1.65% weekly loss. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.7%, to 17,568.53 weekly loss.
Indian bond yields ended almost flat during the week ended August 07, 2015. The G sec market open on Monday on firm note tracking decline in crude oil prices and US treasury yields. Expectation of favorable guidance from the RBI at its policy review on August 4 also provided bonds support. However, IMD’s monsoon forecast checked the bond prices. The weather research agency said the Aug-Sep rainfall was seen at 84% of the long period average and that there was 72% probability of El Nino conditions becoming strong during the period. Prices of the Government bonds ended slightly lower on Tuesday as sentiment for dated securities was dented slightly by the RBI’s monetary policy announcement, in which the banking regulator decided to keep interest rates on hold. The key policy rate (repo) kept unchanged at 7.25%. The central bank indicated that future rate actions would be dependent on fuller policy transmission by banks development in food prices and their management, supply side measures, and normalisation of policy in the US. The RBI said that the banks have passed on an average 0.3% interest rate cut as against RBI's 0.75% rate cut since January and worried about the new investment demand emanating from private sector and government remains subdued. Prices of the Government bonds ended steady on Wednesday due to range-bound activity and a lack of firm buying interest in the market. G sec market ended higher on Thursday tracking fall in crude oil prices. However, concerns over weekly bond auction checked the bond prices. G sec prices ended marginally lower on Friday as the market witnessed range-bound activity ahead of fresh cues awaited from the release of U.S non-farm pay roll data. Hence, the yields of the new 10-Year benchmark 7.72% GS 2025 closed flat at 7.81% (Rs. 99.39) on Friday against the last week close of 7.81%.
Outlook for the week
We feel that the new 10-year G Sec yields could trade in the 7.70% - 8.00% band for the week.
Liquidity, Call & CBLO
The RBI infused average gross liquidity via Repo under LAF window worth Rs. 2,390 Cr in this week compared to an infusion of Rs. 4,996 Cr in previous week. The Call rate ended at 7.25% versus 7.09% compared to previous week’s closing. The CBLO ended at 5.50% compared to 7.05% in the previous week.
RETAIL RESEARCH
AAA Corporate Bond Spread over Gsec: AAA Corporate Bond Spread over Gsec
Security 07-Aug 31-July
1 Year 46 38
3 Year 26 17
5 Year 43 40
10 Year 48 45
Forthcoming Auctions; Security Date of Auction Value (Rs. Crs)
91 D T Bill 12-Aug-15 8,000
182 D T Bill 12-Aug-15 6,000
Certificates of Deposits:
Maturity 07-Aug 31-July
3 Months 7.45 7.55
6 Months 7.70 7.75
1 Year 7.95 7.95
Commercial Papers:
Maturity 07-Aug 31-July
3 Months 7.80 7.70
6 Months 8.20 8.00
1 Year 8.60 8.45
Commodity Update:
Commodity 07-Aug 31-July Change (%)
NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl) 43.87 47.12 -2.12
Gold (oz/$) 1094.10 1094.90 +0.86
T Bill
The 91-Days T-Bill auction worth Rs 8,000 crore was fully subscribed (7.44% of cut off yield). The 364-Days T-Bill auction worth Rs 6,000 crore was also fully subscribed (7.58% of cut off yield). The RBI announced 91 Day T-bill auction and 364 Day T-bill auction for notified amount of Rs 8,000 and Rs 6,000 Cr respectively to be held on 12-Aug-15.
Corporate Debts
The 10 year AAA bond ended at 8.43% compared to 8.41% in previous week. The 1 year AAA bond yield was seen trading at 8.17% compared to 8.12% in the previous week.
Currency
The USD appreciated against the Euro by 0.55% for week ended 07th August, 2015. The dollar appreciated against the yen by 0.68% for the week. The USD appreciated against the pound by 0.70% for the week.
Gold & Crude oil
International crude oil prices (WTI) ended negative at 6.90% for the week ended 07th August, 2015 to close at USD 43.87 per barrel. International gold prices rose 0.86% for the week ended 07th August, 2015 to close at USD 1094.1 per troy ounce.
10 Yr G sec Benchmark Yields Movements in last one month.
RETAIL RESEARCH
MF Scheme Analysis DSP BR Focus 25 Fund
25
16
29.69
14.47
104317
On (06-A ug-2015)
A M C N ame: 2014-2015 2013-2014 2012-2013 2011-2012 2010-2011*
17.73 11.39 10.08 9.70 10.51
358.01 233.06 299.84 481.47 712.46
55.88 12.24 3.91 -8.38 5.11
26.33 17.53 7.31 -9.11 10.27
Website: 13/(141) 116/(127) 42/(62) 36/(59) NA
466.90 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
18.4310 -01.67 NA NA NA
Lumpsum 1000 21.32 08.73 09.73 06.98
SIP 500 -01.84 -03.78 13.07 02.98
18.52 -05.80 09.62 09.82 -10.37
13.6290 01.27 -09.30 -10.43 11.21
%
7.62
7.10
6.22
6.04
5.58
5.10
4.94
4.68
4.65
3.99
P erio d
T o tal
Investment
(R s.)
Scheme(R s.) B enchM ark % P erio d R eturns[%)S&P B SE
SensexR ank
1 Year 60,000 60,707 57,986 20.27
3 M onth 7.86 2.85 11/(72)
3 Years 180000 2,66,359 2,37,664 18.91
6 M onth 6.18 -2.18 10/(72)
5 Years 3,00,000 4,86,322 4,36,836 09.83
1 Year 31.79 8.94 6/(67)
10 Years 6,00,000 NA NA 07.18
3 Year 26.24 17.92 10/(64)
06.45
5 Year 11.82 9.20 26/(55)
06.39
Since Inc 12.59 - -
06.22
C o mpany Secto r 04.94
R2 0.73 Std Dev (monthly) 4.64
2 0 03.99
Beta 1.00 Sharpe 0.03
2 1 02.93
23/(91.71%) 16/(91.71%)
Whats In Whats Out (F ro m P revio us M o nth)
In
Out
No Change/%age change
FM CG
IT - Software
Capital Goods-Non Electrical Equipment
Infrastructure Developers & Operators
Fertilizers
Scheme P erfo rmance (A s On 8/ 5/ 2015)
Vo lat ility M easures
N ame
Banks
Automobile
Refineries
Pharmaceuticals
Cement
Larsen & Toubro Ltd
M arket C apitalisat io n
*LargeCap- >Rs. 10,000 crores; M idCap- between Rs.1,000 crores to Rs.10,000 crores; SmallCap- <Rs.1,000 crores.
A sset C o mpo sit io n
SIP - Invested R s. 5 ,000 Every M o nth T o p 10 Secto rwise H o ldings
Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd
M aruti Suzuki India Ltd
Britannia Industries Ltd
Cummins India Ltd
State Bank of India
Axis Bank Ltd
2011-2012
T o p 10 C o mpanies
N ame
HDFC Bank Ltd
Bharat Petro leum Corporation Ltd
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd
Quarterly P erfo rmance - Last 5 years
F inancial Year
2015-2016
2014-2015
2013-2014
2012-2013
F inancial D etails
A UM A s On (30-Jun-2015) R s.C r
N A V as o n (05-A ug-2015 ) R s.
M in Investment (R s.)
N A V (52 Week H igh) {20-Jul-2015}
(52 Week Lo w) {08-A ug-2014}
Category Rank
F und Structure
T o tal Sto cks:
T o tal Secto rs:
P / E R at io :
P / B R at io :
A vg. M arket C ap (R s. cr)
5-Years H isto ry
F inancial Year
NAV in Rs.(as on 31st M arch)
Net Assets (Rs. crores)
Returns (%)
CNX NIFTY Returns (%)
F und H o use D etails
A ddress:
DSP BlackRock Asset M anagement Company Ltd
M afatlal Centre,10th Floor,Nariman Point, M umbai
400 021.
www.dspblackrock.com
Investment Info rmatio n
Scheme
Launch D ate
F und M anager
B enchM ark
F und Object ive/ M issio n
To generate long-term capital growth from a portfo lio o f equity and
equity-related securities including equity derivatives. The portfo lio will
largely cosist o f companies, which are amongst the top 200 companies
by market capitalisation. The portfo lio will limit exposure to companies
beyond the top 200 companies by market capitalization upto 20% of the
net asset value. The Scheme will normally ho ld equity and equity-related
securities including equity derivatives, o f upto 25 companies. M ax.Entry Lo ad (%)
M ax.Exit Lo ad (%)
Open Ended
23-Apr-2010
Harish Zaveri
S&P BSE Sensex
NA
1% if redeemed within 1 yr.
97.25
2.75 00
20
40
60
80
100
Large Mid Small
MCAP %
Equity90%
Debt6%
Cash-4%
Asset %
RETAIL RESEARCH
Unit Growth of investments Vs. Benchmark (Rebased to 100)
Fund Performance Vis-a-vis Benchmark (Excess return):
Key Points
DSP BR Focus 25 Fund is a scheme from Equity Diversified Large cap category has showed better
performance in the recent periods. The scheme has showed better performance among peers during the
period wherein the mid-cap stocks witnessed rally with concentrated large-cap investment strategy that
has helped the scheme generating relatively better alpha.
The scheme registered +32%, +26% and +12% of compounded returns for the one, three and five year
periods while the benchmark – S&P BSE Sensex posted +9%, +18% and +9% of returns respectively. Over
the same period, the category clocked +21%, +22% and +12% of CAGR returns respectively.
A focused strategy allows the fund manager to allocate a higher proportion of the fund to high conviction
& large-cap stocks which are the form and part of S&P BSE Sensex index.
The concentrated large-cap portfolio could bodes well especially during market rise and generates a
greater alpha. On the other hand, they tend to generate underperforming returns during market
corrections. However, the concentration risk is mitigated by consciously investing in companies with
superior managements and stable cash flows. Investors need to watch the performance of the scheme
during market down turns.
The fund manager follows a bottom-up stock selection approach and currently focuses on companies
which benefit from operating leverage. The fund manager follows buy and hold strategy as its turnover
ratio stood at 67%. The portfolio has been churned moderately in last one year period as the scheme
added 11 new stocks and exited from 15. That reflects in the turnover ratio which has been at 33%.
HDFC Bank, BPCL and TCS Ltd are the stocks topped in its latest portfolio having weights of 7.62%, 7.10%
and 6.22% to its net assets respectively. The expense ratio of 2.90% for the scheme is higher compared to
the category (the category average has been at 2.64%).
Rating agencies like Value research & Crisil assigned ‘3 star’ and ‘CPR 3’ respectively for the scheme.
These reflect above average performance of the scheme on generating high-risk adjusted returns.
The scheme is managed by Mr. Harish Zaveri since Dec 2014. The corpus of the scheme as per latest data
was at Rs. 467 crore.
As far as risk measures are concerned, the scheme seems to be higher risky in the category given its concentrated investment strategy. The scheme has generated 4.64% (category 4.26%) of Standard Deviation that calculated from the monthly returns over the last three-year NAV history.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Mutual Fund ready reckoner:
Equity - Diversified - Large CAP
Scheme Name NAV (Rs)
Fund Size (Crs. Rs)
1 Year Return
3 Year Return
5 Year Return
Return Since Inception
Top holdings Crisil Rank
Value Research Rating
Risk Grade
Return Grade
Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity - Plan A (G) INF209K01BR9
167.50 9364 19.03 26.52 14.49 24.40 ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis
RIL & Infosys CPR 2 4 Star Average
Above
Average
HDFC Equity Fund - (G)
INF179K01608 477.37 18032 11.86 23.41 12.67 20.67
SBI, ICICI Bank, Infy, L&T &
Maruti Suzuki CPR 3 2 Star High Average
ICICI Pru Focused Bluechip Equity Fund (G)
INF109K01BL4 30.02 9107 16.09 23.73 14.62 16.56
HDFC Bank Ltd, Infosys Ltd, ICICI Bank
Ltd, Axis Bank & HCL Tech CPR 2 5 Star
Below
Average High
Reliance Top 200 Fund (G)*
INF204K01562 24.90 1386 23.66 26.23 14.63 12.14
HDFC Bank, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank,
Maruti Suzuki Ind & L&T CPR 3 3 Star
Above
Average
Above
Average
DSP BR Focus 25 Fund (G)*
INF740K01532 18.16 467 28.63 26.17 11.67 12.35
HDFC Bank, BPCL, TCS, Sun Pharma &
Maruti Suzuki India CPR 3 3 Star
Above
Average Average
UTI-Top 100 Fund (G)*
INF789F01869 50.61 854 21.62 22.67 13.08 12.96
HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Infosys, ICICI
Bank & TCS CPR 2 4 Star Low
Above
Average
*-Recent performance of these schemes is good. Need to watch longer term performance.
Equity - Diversified - Multi CAP
Scheme Name NAV (Rs)
Fund Size (Crs. Rs)
1 Year Return
3 Year Return
5 Year Return
Return Since Inception
Top holdings Crisil Rank
Value Research Rating
Risk Grade
Return Grade
Franklin India High Growth Companies (G) INF090I01981
30.36 1578 14.44 12.05 11.50 7.92 8.32% GOI 2032, 9.23% GOI 2043,
9.2% GOI 2030, 8.17% GOI 2044 CPR 1 5 Star
Below
Average High
Sundaram Gilt Fund - (G)
INF903J01FA6 23.62 50 8.88 10.70 13.19 6.22
8.83% GOI 2023, 8.28% GOI 2027,
8.6% GOI 2028 & 8.15% GOI 2026 - 5 Star Low High
Notes:
NAV value as on July 24, 2015. Portfolio data as on June 2015.
Returns are trailing and annualized (CAGR).
The notations '5 Star & CPR 1' (used by VR &Crisil respectively) are considered as top in respective rating and ranking scales.
The performance of the funds are rated and classified by Value Research in the following ways. Top 10% funds in each category were classified ‘*****’ funds, the next 22.5% got a ‘****’ star, while the middle 35% got a ‘***’, while the next 22.5% and bottom 10% got ‘**’ and ‘*’ respectively.
The criteria used in computing the CRISIL Composite Performance Rank are Superior Return Score, based on NAVs over the Quarter Ended March 2015, Based on percentile of number of schemes considered in the category, the schemes are ranked as follows: CPR 1- Very Good performance, CPR 2 - Good performance, CPR 3 - Average performance, CPR 4 - Below average and CPR 5 - Relatively weak performance in the category.
Schemes shortlisted based on the corpus and age. Final picks arrived from return score (respective weightage given for rolling returns for 1m, 3m, 6m, 1yr, 2yr & 3yr) and risk score. Schemes from Quantum, Mirae and JM Mutual Funds have not been considered.
* - Recent performance of these schemes is good. Need to watch longer term performance.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Dividend
Scheme Name Record Date Gross (%) Ex-Dividend Date
Sundaram Select Micro Cap - Sr.I (D) 07-08-2015 5.00 10-08-2015
Sundaram Select Micro Cap - Sr.V (D) 07-08-2015 5.00 10-08-2015
Sundaram Select Micro Cap - Sr.II (D) 07-08-2015 5.00 10-08-2015
Sundaram Select Micro Cap - Sr.VI (D) 07-08-2015 5.00 10-08-2015
Sundaram Select Micro Cap - Sr.IV (D) 07-08-2015 5.00 10-08-2015
Sundaram Select Micro Cap - Sr.III (D) 07-08-2015 5.00 10-08-2015
Sundaram Select Micro Cap - Sr.VII (D) 07-08-2015 5.00 10-08-2015
UTI-Wealth Builder Fund - Sr.II (D) 03-08-2015 27.50 04-08-2015
ICICI Pru R.I.G.H.T. Fund (D) 31-07-2015 21.50 03-08-2015
BNP Paribas Dividend Yield Fund (D) 31-07-2015 1.00 03-08-2015
Canara Robeco F.O.R.C.E. Fund (D) 31-07-2015 13.00 03-08-2015
Birla Sun Life New Millennium Fund (D) 31-07-2015 20.00 03-08-2015
IDFC Equity Opportunity - Series 3 (D) 30-07-2015 15.00 31-07-2015
NFO:
Scheme name Open Date Close Date Tenure Minimum Investments
Balanced:
ICICI Pru Capital Protection Orient. VIII-I Reg(G) 08-08-2015 22-08-2015 1290 Days 5000
ICICI Pru Capital Protection Orient. VIII-H Reg(G) 04-08-2015 18-08-2015 1105 Days 5000
AXIS Hybrid Fund - Series 25 (G) 07-08-2015 17-08-2015 1278 Days 5000
AXIS Equity Saver Fund (G) 27-07-2015 10-08-2015 5000
ICICI Pru Capital Protection Orient. VIII-G Reg(G) 25-07-2015 08-08-2015 1101 Days 5000
Fixed Maturity Plans:
Reliance Dual Advantage FTF - VIII - Plan B (G) 14-08-2015 28-08-2015 1099 Days 5000
Religare Invesco FMP - Sr.XXVI - Plan D (G) 28-07-2015 11-08-2015 1098 Days 5000
Mutual FundNEWS:
Change in Name of Tata Tax Saving Fund: Tata Mutual Fund has decided to change the name of Tata Tax Saving Fund to Tata Long Term Equity Fund with effect from 10th August, 2015. Change in Fundamental Attributes of HSBC Progressive Themes Fund: HSBC Mutual Fund has made the following changes in the fundamental attributes of HSBC Progressive Themes Fund with effect from September 14, 2015. Name of Scheme: The revised name of the scheme is HSBC Infrastructure Equity Fund. Type of Scheme: The type of scheme has been changed from open-ended flexi-theme equity scheme to open-ended equity scheme.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Global Updates: (Source: AMC Newsletters)
India: • Central Board of Direct Taxes raises cost inflation index by 5.57% to 1081 for fiscal year 2016. • Indian companies raised about $3.16 bn in foreign borrowing in June, a rise of 67% over the same month last year. • India’s core sector growth slipped to 2.4% in June after hitting a six May mainly on account of contraction in crude oil and natural gas production. • India's fiscal deficit reached Rs 2.87 lakh cr during April current fiscal. • Government to infuse Rs 70000 cr in public sector banks over four years to address the issue of bad loans.
Asia:
• Japan’s retail sales rose 0.9% in the year to June, compared with a 3% rise in May. • Japan’s industrial production rose 0.8% from the previous month in June, compared with a 2.1% decline in May. • Japan’s core consumer price index rose 0.1% in June from a year earlier, flat from the previous month’s reading • Japan's unemployment rate rose to 3.4% in June, up 0.1% from May.
US:
• US flash services Purchasing Managers Index rose to 55.2 in July from the final 54.8 reading in June. • Pending home sales unexpectedly fell 1.8% in June, the first drop this year, after a revised 0.6% increase in May. • The US economy expanded 2.3% annually in the second quarter compared to a revised growth of 0.6% in the first quarter • Initial jobless claims increased by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 267,000 in the week ended July 25. • US Employment Cost Index edged up 0.2% in the second quarter, the smallest gain since the series started in the second quarter of 1982, and following an unrevised 0.7% increase in the first
quarter. • US’ University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 93.1 in July from 96.1 in June
UK: • The UK economy expanded at an annualized pace of 2.6% in the second quarter, compared to 2.9% growth in the previous quarter. • UK net consumer credit increased by 1.22 bn pounds in June compared to 1.057 bn pounds in May. • UK GfK consumer confidence index fell to 4 in July compared with 7 in June.
Euro Zone:
• Euro zone economic sentiment index came in at 104 in July compared to 103.5 in June; the consumer confidence index fell to -7.1 in July from -5.6 a month ago. • Euro zone’s annual inflation was 0.2% in July, the same as in June. • Euro zone’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 11.1% in June, stable compared with May, and down from 11.6% in June 2014.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Economic Calendar:
Date Country Event Period Frequency Unit Previous
08-06-2015 US Chain Store Sales Jul, 2015 Monthly
08-06-2015 US Jobless Claims (New Claims - Level) wk8/1, 2015 Weekly K 267
08-06-2015 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (Level) wk8/2, 2015 Weekly 40.5
08-07-2015 US Fed Balance Sheet (Level) wk8/5, 2015 Weekly 4.49
14-08-2015 India WPI Inflation (YoY Chg) New Series (Base 2004-05) Jul Monthly pct -2.4
14-08-2015 Germany GDP Flash (Year over Year) Q2, 2015 Yearly Percent 1
14-08-2015 France GDP Flash (Quarter over Quarter) Q2, 2015 Quarterly Percent 0.6
14-08-2015 European Monetary Union HICP (Month over Month) Jul, 2015 Monthly Percent
14-08-2015 European Monetary Union GDP Flash (Quarter over Quarter) Q2, 2015 Quarterly Percent 0.4
14-08-2015 European Monetary Union HICP (Year over Year) Jul, 2015 Yearly Percent 0.2
14-08-2015 US Consumer Sentiment Aug, 2015 Monthly
14-08-2015 India WMA (ways and means advance) - to central govt Wk to Aug 7 Weekly Rs bln
14-08-2015 India WMA (ways and means advance) - to state govts Wk to Aug 7 Weekly Rs bln
14-08-2015 India FX reserve (change on wk) Wk to Aug 7 Weekly $ mln
17-08-2015 India Output of Crude oil Jul Monthly mln tn 3.1
17-08-2015 India Output of Refinery Jul Monthly mln tn 18.87
17-08-2015 India Output of Natural gas Jul Monthly bln cu m 2.72
RETAIL RESEARCH
Relationship among policy rates and benchmarks:
The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation came in at -2.40 for the month of June 2015. It has been in the negative zone for the last eight months. On the other hand, the Consumer Price Index based inflation data (CPI), showed retail inflation rose 5.4% in June. In its policy meet held on June 04, the RBI cut repo rate by 25bps to 7.25% and expressed its concerns over the upside risks to inflation due to uncertainty on the monsoon front. Deposit vs. Advance Growth (YoY)%
The y-o-y growth in scheduled commercial bank (SCB) credit remained stagnant at 9.4 per cent in the fortnight ended 24 July 2015. The outstanding SCB credit decreased by Rs.144.1 billion to Rs.65.6 trillion. The food and non-food credit stood at Rs.1.1 trillion and Rs.65.5 trillion, respectively, as on 24 July 2015. The SCB deposit base increased by Rs.10.5 billion to Rs.88.8 trillion during the fortnight. The y-o-y growth in total deposits improved marginally to 11.8 per cent. The demand deposit and time deposit stood at Rs.8 trillion and Rs.81 trillion, respectively, as on 24 July 2015.
Economy Updates US Dollar Vs Indian Rupee
Indian rupee snapped 3-week losing streak against the US dollar, recovered by 32 paise to close at 63.81 per dollar on fresh selling by banks and exporters on the back of good foreign capital inflows into equity market.
WPI Inflation (YoY)
Inflation, as measured on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) came in at -2.40 for the month of June 2015, it has been in the negative zone for the last eight months. Build up in inflation rate in the financial year so far was 1.42 per cent compared to a buildup rate of 1.50 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Corporate Bonds Spread Vs Gilt Securities:
Corporate bond yields rose last week. The one year AAA credit spreads rose by 8 basis point while 10 year spread rose by 3 basis points.
Liquidity support from RBI (Bn. Rs)
The RBI infused average gross liquidity via Repo under LAF window worth Rs. 2,251 Cr in this week compared to an infusion of Rs. 4,996 Cr in previous week. Infusions via the MSF route averaged Rs. 4 Cr. The Call rate ended at 7.09% versus 7.12% compared to previous week’s closing. The CBLO ended at 7.05% compared to 6.80% in the previous week.
Money Stock (M3) (YoY) (%)
Money supply (M3) or broad money fell by Rs.47.2 billion to Rs.109.4 trillion during the fortnight ended 24 July 2015. Out of the components of M3, demand deposits with the banks rose by Rs.123.1 billion to Rs.9 trillion and time deposits contracted by Rs.104.8 billion to Rs.86 trillion. Currency with the public fell by Rs.155.6 billion to Rs.14.2 trillion. Other deposits with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) grew by Rs.90.1 billion to Rs.0.2 trillion. Foreign Exchange Reserves (mn of USD)
India's foreign exchange reserves plunging by $188 million in the week ended July 31. Its weekly statistical supplement, showed that India's foreign exchange reserves stood at $ 353,460.5 million.
RETAIL RESEARCH
Certificates of Deposit (%):
CD rates are trending marginally lower in the recent periods. The CD rates hovered around 7.95% levels (as per the latest data) (one year CD).
Commercial Paper (%):
Rates of Commercial papers are seen trading marginally higher in the recent periods. The CP rates are hovering around 8.6% levels (one year maturity CP).
MF’s net investment in Debt (RsCrs):
In May, MF bought debts worth Rs. 15,956 crore while In June, MF bought worth Rs. 36,331 crore. In July, MF bought debts worth Rs. 30,907 crore.
FII’s net investment in Debt (RsCrs):
In May, FIIs sold debt worth Rs. 8,815 crore. In June, FII bought debts worth Rs. 19,331 crore. In July, FII bought debt worth Rs. 177 crore.
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This report has been prepared by the Retail Research team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or other parameters mentioned in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with those of the other Research teams
