Greenhouse gases and climate change 79 3.1. Greenhouse gases and climate change Global and European annual mean air temperatures have increased by 0.3-0.6°C since 1900. 1998 was globally the warmest year on record. There is augmenting evidence that emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs – mainly carbon dioxide (CO 2 )) are causing air temperature increases resulting in climate change. Climate models estimate further increases, above 1990 levels, of about 2°C by the year 2100. It is unlikely that stable, potentially sustainable, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will be realised before 2050. An immediate 50-70% reduction in global CO 2 emissions would be needed to stabilise global CO 2 concentrations at the 1990 level by 2100. The issue of climate change is being addressed through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The EU’s commitments are to stabilise CO 2 emissions by 2000 at 1990 levels and to reduce emissions of the main six greenhouse gases by 8% in 2008-2012 from 1990 levels (Kyoto Protocol). EU CO 2 emissions decreased by 1% between 1990 and 1996, due to relatively low economic growth, increases in energy efficiency, economic restructuring of the new Länder in Germany and fuel switching from coal to natural gas in the UK. However, CO 2 emissions are projected to increase under the pre-Kyoto baseline scenario by 8% above 1990 levels by 2010 with transport sector emissions increasing by 39% while industrial sector emissions decline by 15%. The shift from solid fuels to gaseous fuels is projected to continue. Total EU GHG emissions are projected to increase 6% above 1990 levels by 2010 – clearly missing the 8% reduction target. Additional policies and measures will therefore be necessary to meet the Kyoto Protocol commitment. In the Accession Countries CO 2 and GHG emissions are projected to decrease by 8% and 11% respectively between 1990 and 2010. This would imply a 2% increase in GHG emissions for an enlarged EU – still well short of the existing EU’s 8% reduction target. EU action thus far includes target sharing between Member States, an agreement with the car industry to reduce CO 2 emissions from new passenger cars, and energy/CO 2 taxes at national level but not – as yet – EU-wide. Consideration is being given to uses of the so-called ‘Kyoto mechanisms’ - emission trading, joint implementation, and the ‘clean development mechanism’, although the total technical reduction potential for measures with costs below 50 euro/tonne CO 2 equivalent is estimated to be more than what is needed to achieve the EU 8% reduction target. Forest carbon sinks in the EU are estimated to be only up to 1% of the 1990 EU CO 2 emissions. Main findings 1. An issue under international scrutiny 1.1. From greenhouse gases to climate change Climate change is widely recognised as a serious potential threat to the world’s envi- ronment. The problem is being addressed through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), most recently at the fourth Conference of the Parties at Buenos Aires in November 1998 (UNFCCC, 1999). It has been identi- fied by the EU as one of the key environmen- tal themes to be tackled under the Fifth Environmental Action Programme (5EAP). The greenhouse effect of the Earth’s atmos- phere is a natural phenomenon, without which the Earth’s temperature would be much lower, whereby atmospheric concen- trations of water vapour and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) trap infrared radiation. Over the past century there have been increases in atmospheric concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), as well as halogenated com- pounds such as CFCs, HFCs and PFCs. Over the same period a considerable increase, in
Transcript
Greenhouse gases and climate change 7 9
3.1. Greenhouse gases and climate change
Global and European annual mean air temperatures have increased by 0.3-0.6°C since1900. 1998 was globally the warmest year on record. There is augmenting evidence thatemissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs – mainly carbon dioxide (CO2)) are causing airtemperature increases resulting in climate change. Climate models estimate furtherincreases, above 1990 levels, of about 2°C by the year 2100. It is unlikely that stable,potentially sustainable, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will be realisedbefore 2050. An immediate 50-70% reduction in global CO2 emissions would be neededto stabilise global CO2 concentrations at the 1990 level by 2100.
The issue of climate change is being addressed through the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The EU’s commitments are to stabilise CO2
emissions by 2000 at 1990 levels and to reduce emissions of the main six greenhousegases by 8% in 2008-2012 from 1990 levels (Kyoto Protocol).
EU CO2 emissions decreased by 1% between 1990 and 1996, due to relatively loweconomic growth, increases in energy efficiency, economic restructuring of the newLänder in Germany and fuel switching from coal to natural gas in the UK. However, CO2
emissions are projected to increase under the pre-Kyoto baseline scenario by 8% above1990 levels by 2010 with transport sector emissions increasing by 39% while industrialsector emissions decline by 15%. The shift from solid fuels to gaseous fuels is projected tocontinue. Total EU GHG emissions are projected to increase 6% above 1990 levels by2010 – clearly missing the 8% reduction target. Additional policies and measures willtherefore be necessary to meet the Kyoto Protocol commitment.
In the Accession Countries CO2 and GHG emissions are projected to decrease by 8% and11% respectively between 1990 and 2010. This would imply a 2% increase in GHGemissions for an enlarged EU – still well short of the existing EU’s 8% reduction target.
EU action thus far includes target sharing between Member States, an agreement withthe car industry to reduce CO2 emissions from new passenger cars, and energy/CO2 taxesat national level but not – as yet – EU-wide. Consideration is being given to uses of theso-called ‘Kyoto mechanisms’ - emission trading, joint implementation, and the ‘cleandevelopment mechanism’, although the total technical reduction potential for measureswith costs below 50 euro/tonne CO2 equivalent is estimated to be more than what isneeded to achieve the EU 8% reduction target. Forest carbon sinks in the EU areestimated to be only up to 1% of the 1990 EU CO2 emissions.
Main findings
1. An issue under international scrutiny
1.1. From greenhouse gases to climate changeClimate change is widely recognised as aserious potential threat to the world’s envi-ronment. The problem is being addressedthrough the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),most recently at the fourth Conference ofthe Parties at Buenos Aires in November1998 (UNFCCC, 1999). It has been identi-fied by the EU as one of the key environmen-tal themes to be tackled under the FifthEnvironmental Action Programme (5EAP).
The greenhouse effect of the Earth’s atmos-phere is a natural phenomenon, withoutwhich the Earth’s temperature would bemuch lower, whereby atmospheric concen-trations of water vapour and carbon dioxide(CO2) trap infrared radiation.
Over the past century there have beenincreases in atmospheric concentrations ofanthropogenic greenhouse gases – carbondioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrousoxide (N2O), as well as halogenated com-pounds such as CFCs, HFCs and PFCs. Overthe same period a considerable increase, in
Environmental Issues8 0
historic terms, in global mean temperaturehas been observed. There is augmentingevidence that emissions of greenhouse gasesfrom human activities are causing an en-hanced greenhouse effect in the form ofglobal warming) (IPCC, 1996; IPCC, 1997aand 1997b).
Fossil-fuel combustion resulting in CO2
emissions is the dominant human activity(driving force) causing the enhanced green-house effect. Other activities that contributeto greenhouse gas emissions are agricultureand land-use changes including deforesta-tion, certain industrial processes such ascement production, landfilling of wastes,refrigeration, foam blowing and solvent use.
Climate change resulting from the enhancedgreenhouse effect is expected to havewidespread consequences, causing:
• sea-level rise and possible flooding oflow-lying areas;
• melting of glaciers and sea ice;• changes in rainfall patterns with implica-
tions for floods and droughts;• changes in the incidence of climatic
extremes, especially high-temperatureextremes.
These effects of climate change will haveimpacts on ecosystems, health, key economicsectors such as agriculture, and water re-sources.
There is now general recognition that policyaction is needed to curb greenhouse gasemissions and that it is important to identify
the extent to which consequences of climatechange can be minimised by adaptationmeasures. Decreased emissions of green-house gases can have other beneficial effects(see also Chapters 3.4 and 3.11), such as:
• reduction in CO2 emissions from fuelcombustion by – for example – fuelswitching to natural gas or by increaseduse of renewables, which also helps toreduce the emissions of other pollutantsthat cause acidification, troposhericozone and reduced air quality;
• reduction in methane emissions alsohelps to reduce the general backgroundlevels of tropospheric ozone.
1.2. Current indications and impacts of climate change
Temperature increaseGlobal mean surface air temperature hasincreased by about 0.3-0.6°C since the late19th century (IPCC, 1996). The year 1998 wasglobally the warmest year on record. InEurope similar increases in temperature havebeen observed, although the natural varia-tions in regions are larger than those thatoccur for the global average (Figure 3.1.1).
The warming effect is more prominent athigher latitudes in the northern hemisphere(Figure 3.1.2).
An observed sea level riseGlobal warming causes oceans to warm andtherefore expand, and increases the meltingof glaciers and sea ice. Climate change canthus affect sea levels which have increased by
Between 1856 and 1998, theyearly deviations from the1961-1990 global average
and European temperature(in addition smoothed to
show 10 yearly variations intemperature) show an
increase of 0.3° C to 0.6° C.The year 1998 was globally
the warmest year on record,and 1997 the warmest beforethat. This is partly due to the1997/1998 El Niño/Southern
Oscillation (ENSO), whichwas the largest on record(Hadley Centre/The Met.
Office, 1998a). The ENSOphenomenon is a cycle of
natural fluctuations of Pacificocean temperatures resulting
in large-scale changes intropical rainfall and wind
patterns.
Observed global and European annual mean temperature deviations from 1856 to 1998Figure 3.1.1
Source: CRU, 1998; Hadley Centre, 1998a
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Greenhouse gases and climate change 8 1
10-25 cm in the past 100 years, the rangereflecting differences in different parts ofthe world and uncertainties in the measure-ments. The rate of increase does not appearto be changing but it is significantly higherthan that averaged over the past few thou-sand years (IPCC, 1996).
Greenhouse gas concentrationsand global emissions increaseThere has been a marked upward trend inatmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 andN2O since pre-industrial times. The so-called‘new greenhouse gases’ (the halogenatedsubstances HFC, PFC and SF6) entered theatmosphere only after mankind started usingthem in the past few decades. Table 3.1.1shows the estimated contributions of thesegases to global warming.
In addition to these gases, troposphericozone (O3) may also augment global warm-ing, by a further 16% (IPCC, 1996).
Aerosols, consisting of small particles ordroplets either emitted directly (primaryaerosols) or formed in the atmosphere fromsulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides(NOx) and ammonia (secondary aerosols),can have a cooling effect (see also Chapter3.4 ). The IPCC estimates that aerosols haveoffset about 50% of the total warming todate by the main greenhouse gases (IPCC,1996). However, unlike the main greenhousegases, aerosols have a short lifetime in theatmosphere so they cannot become distrib-uted over the whole planet and their effect isregional and short-lived.
The total aggregate emissions in 1990 fromindustrialised countries reported to the
* To compare the impact of different gases, the global warming potential (GWP)relative to CO
2 is often used, with CO
2 having a value of 1. GWP values are strongly
dependent on the time horizon considered. Examples of GWP values over a 100-year periodare 21 for CH
4, 310 for N
2O and several thousand for a number of halogenated compounds
(IPCC,1996). The emissions taking into account GWP values are called ‘CO2 equivalents’.
** all halogenated compounds together , including CFCs and HCFCs
Source: IPCC, 1996
Table 3.1.1.
Gas Concentration Contribution Main anthropogenic sourcesincrease (%) since to globalabout 1750 warming (%) *
CO2 30% 64% Fuel combustion,deforestation and land-usechange, cement production
CH4 145% 20% Energy production and use(including biomass), animals, ricepaddies, sewage, organic wastein landfills
N2O 15% 6% Use of fertilisers, land clearing,adipic and nitric acid production,biomass burning, combustion offossil fuels
HFCs not applicable Refrigeration, air conditioners,chemical industry
PFCs not applicable 10%** Aluminium production
SF6 not applicable Electricity distribution
Greenhouse gases: concentration changes, contri-bution to global warming (GW) and main sources
UNFCCC were about 18 Gt (CO2-equivalent)(UNFCCC, 1998) (Figure 3.1.3), althoughthis is subject to uncertainty and the IMAGEmodel (see section 1.3) assumes a higherfigure (21 Gt). However, between 1990 and1995 the aggregate emission of all green-house gases of industrialised countries,excluding carbon removals/sinks (see Box3.1.3 in section 5), has decreased slightly(5%), mainly due to decreases from central
The mean annualtemperatures in the 1990sare well above the meanannual temperatures from1961 to1990.
Source: CRU, 1998; HadleyCentre, 1998a
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Environmental Issues8 2
and eastern European countries, in particu-lar from the Russian Federation (with areduction of 30%).
Greenhouse gas emissions in the EU madeup 25% of total emissions in industrialisedcountries in 1990 (Figure 3.1.3). Carbondioxide contributes 80-90% of emissions inWestern Europe and the US and about 70%in the other countries in the ‘industrialised’category (defined by UNFCCC Annex 1).The variations are mainly due to differencesin industrialisation and energy intensity andin the importance of carbon dioxide emis-sions or sinks from land-use change.
1.3. Future impacts of climate change (until 2100)
Global greenhouse gas emission scenariosThe Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) has assessed the possibleconsequences of continuing human en-hancement of greenhouse gas emissions andconcentrations, using a number of globalsocio-economic and greenhouse gas emis-sions scenarios, covering the period up to2100. These scenarios range from baselinescenarios that assume low growth and amajor switch to the use of non-fossil energysources and large increases in energy effi-ciency. The scenarios are meant to assess therange of possible impacts on for exampletemperature and sea-level rise.
Integrated assessment model studies, whichsimulate the dynamics of the global climatesystem, have been undertaken for Europewith the global IMAGE model (RIVM, 1998;Alcamo .et al., 1996; European Commission,1999), using a baseline scenario that is
consistent and comparable with the IPCC’smid range (‘business as usual’) scenario.Estimated 1990 emissions are 21 Gt (CO2-eq.)for industrialised countries – 55% of theglobal total – and 16 Gt (CO2-eq.) for devel-oping countries. World population is pro-jected to be 7 billion by 2010 and 10 billionby 2050. Global average GDP/capita isexpected to increases by 40% between 1990and 2010 and 140% between 1990 and 2050.Global CO2 emissions are projected to in-crease from 1990 levels by about a factor oftwo by 2050 and a factor of three by 2100.Increases of methane and nitrous oxideemissions are less but still substantial by 2100.
Climate change impact indicators by 2050 and 2100Global average concentrations of the threemain greenhouse gases are projected toincrease from 1990 to 2050: 45% for CO2
(from 354 to 512 ppmv), 80% for CH4 (from1.60 to 2.84 ppmv), 22% for N2O (from 310to 377 ppbv) (IPCC, 1996).
IPCC (1996) findings for global temperatureincrease by 2100 vary over a wide range with acentral estimate of a global mean temperature2°C higher in 2100 than in 1990 (the uncer-tainty range is 1-3.5°C), assuming the ‘baselinescenario’ for global emissions. One of theclimate models used in the IPCC (1996)assessment recently presented new resultssuggesting a global temperature increase of3°C by 2100 (Hadley Centre, 1998b, 1998c).
According to IPCC (1996) there could belarge regional variations. Climate models forEurope indicate that average increases intemperature would be similar to the esti-mated global increases, with greater warm-ing in northern latitudes than in the south(Figure 3.1.4). The latest results from theHadley Centre model show that a slowingdown of the North Atlantic ocean circulationcould occur due to increases of greenhousegases, but the model still projects an increaseof temperature in Europe.
IPCC (1996) and IMAGE estimates indicatethat by 2050 sea levels could be almost 20 cm,and by 2100 about 50 cm (range 15-95 cm)above today’s levels. There is still considerableuncertainty about these results, particularlyregarding the behaviour of polar ice sheets.Sea-level rise is projected to continue after2100 due to the inertia inherent in atmos-pheric-oceanic interactions.
Potential impacts from climate change onvegetation patterns and ecosystems aredescribed in Chapters 3.11 and 3.15.
Source: EEA, 1998;UNFCCC, 1998 EU 15
Accessioncountries *
United States
Japan
RussianFederation
Otherindustrialised
countries
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
GHG emissions (GT CO2 eq.)
CO2 CH4 N2 O HFCs, SF6, PFCs
*Not including Cyprus
Greenhouse gas emissions in 1990 by gas indifferent groups of industrialised (Annex 1)countries (excluding CO2 sinks)
Figure 3.1.3
Greenhouse gases and climate change 8 3
Potentially ‘sustainable’ targetsfor climate change impact indicatorsThe objective of Article 2 of the UNFCCC isto reach atmospheric concentrations thatwould prevent dangerous anthropogenicinterference with the climate system butwould allow sustainable economic develop-ment (IPCC, 1996).
There is no scientific consensus on sustain-able target values for the main climate-change impact indicators, although variousproposals have been made. The EU hasadopted a provisional ‘sustainable’ target ofa global average temperature increase of 2oCabove the pre-industrial level (EuropeanCommunity, 1996a). The increase to 1990has already been about 0.5oC, leaving afurther allowable increase of 1.5oC from1990 to 2100, or an average increase of0.14oC per decade. The projected tempera-ture increase of 2°C in 2100 above 1990 isabove this provisional ‘sustainable’ target(IPCC, 1996).
Another provisional ‘sustainable’ target,consistent with the EU target and with theUNFCCC objective, has also been proposed:a 0.1°C temperature rise per decade (Krauseet al., 1989; Leemans, 1998). The projectedrate of temperature rise (IPCC, 1996) will bemore than double this provisional ‘sustain-able’ target.
A provisional ‘sustainable’ target for totalgreenhouse concentrations that is consistentwith the ‘sustainable’ temperature targets iscurrently considered to be between 450 and500 ppmv CO2-equivalent. Under the IPCC(1996) baseline emission scenario, thecombined concentration of the three majorgreenhouse gases is projected to be 700ppmv in 2050 and to continue to rise there-after. Stable potentially ‘sustainable’ atmos-pheric concentrations of the main green-house gases are therefore unlikely to berealised by 2050.
A provisional ‘sustainable’ target of 2 cm perdecade for sea-level rise has been suggested.From IPCC (1996) and the IMAGE analyses,sea-level rise will be approaching this leveltowards 2050. This potentially ‘sustainable’target will most likely be exceeded between2050 and 2100.
Potentially ‘sustainable’greenhouse gas emissions by 2010The issue of climate change is such thatthere is a need for setting long-term targets,but also for understanding the short-term
implications of such targets. The concept of‘sustainable pathways’ can be used to pro-vide information on the level of short-term(2010) greenhouse gas emissions that arecompatible with long term sustainable (2050to 2100) climate goals. The analysis takesinto account a range of targets for concen-tration of greenhouse gases, temperatureincrease and sea-level rise. The analysis canalso show the distribution of emissionsbetween industrialised countries and devel-oping (‘non-Annex 1’) countries. Within theframework of UNFCCC, developing coun-tries do not yet have to control their emis-sions (see section 2).
To stabilise the CO2 concentration below 550ppmv, twice the pre-industrial level, wouldmean that future global CO2 emissionscannot exceed current emissions and wouldhave to be much lower before and beyond2100 (IPCC, 1996). To stabilise at lower CO2
concentration levels would of course implyeven lower global emissions (IPCC, 1997b).IPCC (1996, 1997b) has presented otheremission pathways geared to differentoptions for stabilisation of CO2 and othergreenhouse gas concentrations. For instance,stabilisation of the CO2 concentration at the1990 level (of 354 ppmv) by 2100 wouldinvolve an immediate reduction of annualCO2 emissions by 50% to 70% and furtherthereafter (IPCC, 1996).
The concept of ‘sustainable pathways’(IMAGE model) gives results that areconsistent with IPCC (1996; 1997b). Theresults of the analysis are dependent on thechoice of ‘sustainable’ climate protectiontargets. Here results are shown assumingthe EU objective of a maximum globaltemperature increase of 1.5oC between 1990and 2100, a maximum global temperatureincrease of 0.15oC per decade, IPCC (1996)baseline emissions for developing countriesand assuming a maximum emission reduc-tion rate for industrialised countries of 2%per year.
For industrialised countries this ‘sustainablepathway’ in 2010 implies a reduction of 35%from 1990 levels.
Uncertainties in climate-change scenariosThere are various sources of uncertainty inestimating future climate change by meansof scenarios:
• assumptions with respect to socio-economic and sectoral developmentsand potential emission reductions;
Environmental Issues8 4
• the process of transformation of green-house gas emissions into climate change;
• poorly understood or described pro-cesses in the current climate models.
European research is contributing to effortsto reduce these uncertainties, and also toimprove understanding of the effects ofdifferent sources of uncertainty on the rangeof outcomes.
Vulnerability to climate change and damage costsIn a recent study (Eyre et al., 1998) anestimate was made of the damage costs of theincreasing greenhouse gas concentrations inthe atmosphere (Table 3.1.2). The costs arecalculated for CO2, CH4 and N2O, using twodifferent economic models and are ex-pressed per tonne CO2-equivalent emittedresulting in a range of 20 to 80 euros pertonne CO2-equivalent.
The costs might be inflicted in other parts ofthe world and countries than where theemissions occur. The two models agree inbroad outline: developing countries suffersignificantly higher costs than developedregions. For industrialised countries, costsare relatively modest. In both models Southand South-East Asia and Africa suffer largecosts – the two regions experiencing morethan half the total damage costs.
2. Current policy targets and environmental policies
2.1. Policy targetsGovernments throughout the world re-sponded to the concerns about climatechange at the 1992 UN Conference onEnvironment and Development by adoptingthe Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC). More than 170 coun-tries or groups of countries have now ratifiedthe Convention, including the EuropeanCommunity and all 15 Member States andmost other European countries. Developedcountries (listed in Annex 1 of the Conven-tion) made a commitment to aim to returntheir emissions of greenhouse gases, notcontrolled by the Montreal Protocol, to 1990levels by 2000.
At the Third Conference of Parties (COP3)of UNFCCC in Kyoto in December 1997countries listed in Annex B of the KyotoProtocol (which is similar to the list ofAnnex I countries) agreed to reduce theiremissions of six greenhouse gases by anoverall 5% from 1990 levels by 2008-2012(UNFCCC, 1997b), with emissions expressedin CO2 equivalents, based on 100 year GWP(Global Warming Potential) values. Thesegases are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane(CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluoro-carbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs)and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). Each AnnexB Party is allowed an assigned amount ofgreenhouse gas emissions not to be exceed-ed over the five-year commitment period2008 – 2012, relative to its carbon dioxideequivalent emissions of all six greenhousegases in the base year 1990 (or 1995 forHFCs, PFCs and SF6).
By January 1999, 71 Parties, including theEuropean Community and the US, hadsigned the Kyoto Protocol, and 2 Parties hadratified it. To become binding internationallaw the Protocol has to be ratified by 55Parties to UNFCCC and the Annex 1 Partiesratifying have to account for 55% of the 1990
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Figure 3.1.4
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‘Energy-Industry’, whichcomputes the global
emissions of greenhousegases as a function of energy
consumption and industrialproduction, ‘Terrestrial
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global land cover and theflux from greenhouse gasesfrom the biosphere into the
atmosphere and‘Atmosphere-Ocean’, which
computes the average globaland regional temperature
Even though capabilities for adaptation in managed systems in many places inEurope are relatively well established, significant impacts of climate changestill should be anticipated. Coastal systems will be affected through sea-levelrise and an increase in storm-surge hazards, with areas most at risk in the EUbeing the coastlines of the Netherlands and Germany and someMediterranean deltas. Major effects are likely to be felt through changes inthe frequency of extreme events and precipitation, causing more droughts insome areas and more river floods elsewhere. Already occurring water stressesare likely to be enhanced in the Mediterranean region, the Alps and northernScandinavia. Effects in agriculture could be on growing seasons andproductivity as well as increases in some pests and diseases. Boreal forest andpermafrost areas are projected to undergo major change. Ecosystems areespecially vulnerable due to the projected rate of climate change that wouldchange faster than the ability of plant species to migrate. Human health couldbe affected through increases in heat-stress mortality, tropical vector-bornediseases, urban air pollution problems, and decreases in cold-related illnesses.
Source: IPCC, 1997a
Box 3.1.1 Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe:
Box 3.1.2 Article 2 of the UNFCCC:
Objective
The ultimate objective of this Convention andany related legal instruments that the Conferenceof the Parties may adopt is to achieve, inaccordance with the relevant provisions of theConvention, stabilisation of greenhouse gasconcentrations in the atmosphere at a level thatwould prevent dangerous anthropogenicinterference with the climate system. Such a levelshould be achieved within a time-frame sufficientto allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climatechange, to ensure that food production is notthreatened and to enable economicdevelopment to proceed in a sustainable manner.
CO2 emissions (of Annex I Parties). Thismeans that entry into force on the interna-tional level could be blocked by Partiesaccounting for more than 45% of the 1990CO2 emissions of Annex I Parties.
Under the UNFCCC the EU and each of itsMember States were committed to a reduc-tion of 8% below the 1990 level in the period2008 to 2012. Central and eastern Europeancountries are committed to reductions of 5-8%. Each Party is required to make demon-strable progress in achieving its commit-ments by 2005.
According to the Kyoto Protocol, netchanges in carbon stocks due to specifictypes of greenhouse gas sinks, in particularforests, can be used in the national invento-ries to meet emission reduction commit-ments. This was controversial since majormethodological uncertainties remain in thecalculation of carbon removal by sinks (seealso Section 5.)
In June 1998 a system of ‘burden sharing’(also called ‘target sharing’) was agreed forthe EU Member States (European Commu-nity, 1998a) (see Table 3.1.3).
There are three important new ‘flexibilitymechanisms’ introduced in the KyotoProtocol (the so-called ‘Kyoto Mechanisms’):
• emissions trading among industrialised(Annex 1) countries;
• joint implementation among industrial-ised countries;
• cooperation between industrialised anddeveloping countries in a ‘clean develop-ment mechanism’.
Emissions trading allows Parties to the KyotoProtocol that reduce greenhouse gas emis-
sions below their assigned amount to sellpart of their emission allowance to otherParties. A Party could also buy additionalemission allowance from other Parties forthe purpose of meeting its Kyoto commit-ment. Emissions trading is intended toimprove amongst Annex B Parties (industr-ialised countries) the efficiency of economicresource allocation. However, some coun-tries, for example Russia, could have largequantities of unused assigned amounts ofemissions available for trading. This issue isoften referred to as trading in ‘hot air’, since
Table 3.1.2.
Impact area Damages included in the study
Health impacts expansion of the area amenable to parasiticand vector borne diseases
Agricultural impacts changes in area suitable for certain crops and technicalchanges e.g. irrigation
Water supply impacts changes in water resources
Sea-level rise losses of land and wetlands; costs of protection;migration effects
Impacts on ecosystems valuations based on estimates of species loss
Hazards of extreme changes in frequency and severity of cold spells, heatweather events waves, drought, floods, storms and tropical cyclones
Marginal Damage from model (euro/tonne CO2 eq.):
Model FUND Open Framework
Discount rate 1% 3% 1% 3%
Greenhouse gas
Carbon dioxide, CO2 46 19 44 20
Methane, CH4 25 17 19 18
Nitrous oxide, N2O 55 21 84 35
Source: Eyre et al., 1998
Damage costs of greenhouse gas emissions
Environmental Issues8 6
Table 3.1.3.
Emissions 1990 Target 2008 – 2012
Country Target (%) (Tg CO2 eq.) (Tg CO2 eq.)
Austria -13.0 78 68
Belgium -7.0 139 129
Denmark -21.0 72 57
Finland 0 65 65
France 0 546 546
Germany -21.0 1 208 955
Greece 25.0 99 124
Ireland 13.0 57 64
Italy -6.5 543 507
Luxembourg -28.0 14 10
Netherlands -6.0 217 204
Portugal 27.0 69 87
Spain 15.0 302 348
Sweden 4.0 66 68
United Kingdom -12.5 790 691
EU Total -8.0 4 264 3 922
Bulgaria -8.0 124 114
Czech Republic -8.0 187 173
Estonia -8.0 49 45
Hungary -6.0 80 76
Latvia -8.0 37 34
Lithuania -8.0 44 41
Poland -6.0 591 556
Romania -8.0 246 226
Slovakia -8.0 72 67
Slovenia -8.0 19 17
Croatia -5.0 7 35
Iceland 10.0 3 3
Liechtenstein -8.0 0 0
Norway 1.0 55 56
Switzerland -8.0 54 49
Source: UNFCCC, 1997, 1998; European Commission, 1998f; EEA, 1999a
EU 1990 emissions and the Kyoto Protocol targets,including the EU ‘burden sharing’ agreement (all inCO2-equivalents)
it could imply that no real reduction ofemissions would take place. The size of thisproblem is uncertain, since it depends forexample on the economic development ofRussia.
Joint implementation means that Annex 1Parties may transfer or acquire from eachother emission reduction units on a projectbasis. Private sector entities can participatein this mechanism under certain conditions.
The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)creates the possibility that Annex I countrieshave reductions from projects, undertakenbetween 2000 and 2008-2012 (the firstbudget period), in non-Annex I countriescredited towards their reduction targets.
At the fourth Conference of Parties (COP4,November 1998) the Buenos Aires ActionPlan (UNFCCC, 1999) was adopted, thatincludes work to be finalised in 2000 on:
• financial mechanisms to assist thedeveloping countries regarding adverseeffects of climate change, for examplethrough adaptation measures;
• development and transfer of technologyto developing countries;
• work programme on the Kyoto Mecha-nisms, with a priority on the cleandevelopment mechanism;
• work related to compliance and topolicies and measures.
The work programme on the Kyoto Mecha-nisms contains many elements, includingguidelines for verification, reporting andaccountability for all three mechanisms andthe need for clear definitions and organisa-tional and financial mechanisms. It alsoincludes the need to elaborate the quantifi-cation of ‘supplemental’ to domestic action.This was considered a key issue by the EU. InMarch 1998 the EU Council proposed aquantified limit to be imposed on industrial-ised countries’ use of greenhouse gas emis-sions trading and the other two Kyotomechanisms. The proposal aims at ensuringthat all Annex B Parties will take domesticmeasures to limit their emissions. In October1998 the EU Council concluded that aceiling on the use of the Kyoto Mechanismshas to be defined in ‘quantitative and quali-tative terms based on equitable criteria’.
2.2. Current EU policies and measuresSome EU-wide policies and measures, aimedat reducing emissions of greenhouse gases orenhancement of carbon sinks, are in place.Furthermore the Commission has presentedvarious communications and proposals(Table 3.1.4).
The introduction of a mandatory EU-wideenergy and CO2 tax has been proposed by
Monitor progress towards the target of stabilisation ofCommunity CO2 emissions in 2000 on 1990 levels.
To include other greenhouse gases and report after 2000and bring in line with Kyoto Protocol.
Overview of potential measures (methane).
Overview of potential measures, before the UNFCCCKyoto Protocol agreement.
Overview of potential measures, after the UNFCCCKyoto protocol agreement.
New ‘burden/target’ sharing of Member States in linewith the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol.
No agreement. Various Member States haveimplemented an energy/CO2 tax.
Overview of implications for the energy sector ofreducing GHG emissions.
Overview of possible measures/policies to improveenergy efficiency.
Promotion of R&D of environmentally friendly andefficient energy technologies and renewable energy.
Promotion of renewable energy sources.
Overview of measures to improve energy efficiency.
Requires improvement of energy efficiency in industrial(IPPC) installations.
Proposal for revision requires the operator to investigatefeasibility of combined heat and power (CHP).
EU target of reduction of CO2 emissions from newpassenger cars to 120 g/km by 2005 or 2010 at thelatest. Industry commitment to reduce to 140 g/km by2008.
Europe wide expansion of transport infrastructure (road,rail, water). Potential modal shift away from roadtransport.
Reduction of methane emissions, requirement foroperators to install a control system for landfill gas.
Indirect reduction of methane emissions due to reductionof number of cattle, and of nitrous oxide emissions dueto reduced amount of fertilisers.
Afforestation of agricultural land and thereby alsoenhancement of carbon sinks.
Labelling of energy consumption for information
Minimum standards for energy efficiency.
Policies and measures (and proposals)
Monitoring mechanism for CO2 and othergreenhouse gas emissions (Decision 93/ 389/EEC)
Proposal for amending the MonitoringMechanism, COM(98) 108
Strategy paper for reducing methane emissions,COM(96) 557
Climate Change – the EU approach to Kyoto, COM(97)481
Communication on Climate Change – Towards an EUPost-Kyoto Strategy, COM(98) 353
Council conclusions on targets for Member States onGHG emission reductions CO2 (June 1998)
New proposal for a EU wide energy products taxCOM(97)30
The energy dimension of climate change, COM(97)196
Energy efficiency in the European Community – towardsa strategy for the rational use of energy, COM(1998) 246
ALTENER I programme (1993/1997); proposal forALTENER II (1998/1999), COM (97) 87
SAVE I (1991/1995) and SAVE II (1996/2000) programmes(Decision 96/737/EC)
Directive 96/61/EC concerning Integrated PollutionPrevention and Control (IPPC)
Directive on Large Combustion Plants (88/609/EEC) andproposal for revision (1998)
Communication on implementing the Communitystrategy to reduce CO2 emissions from cars: anenvironmental agreement with the European automobileindustry, COM(1998) 495
Trans European Networks (TEN) for transport
Proposal for a Directive on the landfill of waste
Reform of the Common Agriculture Policy (CAP)
Regulation instituting a Community aid scheme forforestry measures in agriculture (Regulation EEC/2080/92)
Directives for energy labelling of house-hold refrigerators,freezers, washing machines, dishwashers, lamps.
Directives on energy efficiency requirements of hot waterboilers, household refrigerators, freezers. Agreementswith manufacturers and importers of washing machines,televisions, video.
Table 3.1.4.Main EU actions, policies and measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions
Environmental Issues8 8
the European Commission but no agree-ment has been reached. In 1997, the Euro-pean Commission presented a proposal for acomprehensive energy products tax, toextend the scope of the existing EU-wideexcise system to cover natural gas, coal andelectricity as well. Various Member Stateshave already implemented an energy/CO2
tax: Austria, Denmark, Finland, Sweden andthe Netherlands (see Chapter 4.1).
To monitor progress towards the target ofstabilisation of EU CO2 emissions at 1990levels by the year 2000, the Council adoptedin 1993 a monitoring mechanism for CO2
and other greenhouse gas emissions (Euro-pean Community, 1993). The EuropeanCommission prepared two reports (Euro-pean Commission, 1996a) and the EEAprepared a draft report with an overview ofnational programmes to reduce greenhousegas emissions (EEA, 1999a). In 1998 theCommission presented a proposal forrevision of the monitoring mechanism toreflect the agreement reached at Kyoto(European Commission, 1998a).
The Communication ‘the EU Approach toKyoto’ (European Commission, 1997b)showed that a 15% reduction in CO2 emis-sions would be technically feasible and thecostburden would not be insupportable. Amore recent Communication (EuropeanCommission, 1998f) contains an analysis ofthe Kyoto Protocol and the implications forthe EU and also indicated potential EUpolicies and measures. Based on the UNFCCCBuenos Aires Action Plan and strategies ofthe Member States, the Commission willprepare a more complete strategy in 1999.
The European Commission has identified thepotential for energy efficiency improvementsuntil 2010 (European Commission, 1998b).For energy in the EU (production andsupply), the programmes ALTENER, SAVEand JOULE-THERMIE feature prominentlyin the policy response to climate change,although their actual impact on GHG emis-sion reductions is quite difficult to assess.
The Integrated Pollution Prevention andControl (IPPC) Directive for industry in-cludes energy efficiency as a criterion for thedetermination of best available technology(BAT) and could therefore contribute toreduction of CO2 emissions.
For transport, the European Commissionreached an agreement with the car industryin July 1998 to reduce CO2 emissions from
new passenger cars by 25% (to 140 g/km)between 1995 and 2008 (European Commis-sion, 1998d). The Commission’s target is toimprove fuel efficiency of passenger cars sothat emissions are reduced to 120 g/km, andit has proposed a scheme for energy label-ling of new passenger cars to help achievingthis target.
The revised proposal for a Directive on thelandfill of waste aims at reducing landfillmethane emissions. Member States wouldneed to fit all new and existing landfills whichreceive biodegradable waste with a landfill gascontrol mechanism, where possible using thegas collected for energy production and thedirective sets binding targets for the reduc-tion of the amounts of municipal organicwaste (see also Chapter 3.7).
In agriculture, the 1992 reforms of theCommon Agricultural Policy (see alsoChapter 2.1) could indirectly lead to areduction of methane emissions, caused byreduced numbers of cattle and a reductionof nitrous oxide emissions due to reducedamounts of mineral fertilisers applied.Increased non-food biomass production onset-aside land could help to substitute fossilfuel with biofuel. In the forestry sector,financial support will be provided by the EUfor afforestation of agricultural land.
With respect to household consumption,several Directives have been adopted onenergy-efficiency requirements for appli-ances and various agreements with manufac-turers and importers on minimum energystandards have been reached.
2.3. Member States’ current policies and measuresIn addition to initiatives at EU level, theMembers States have implemented variousnational policies and measures (see Table3.1.5). Although the impact of these meas-ures on the EU total greenhouse emissions isdifficult to assess, some estimates are pro-vided in section 4.
3. Sources and trends of greenhouse gas emissions
3.1. Main sources of greenhouse gas emissions in EuropeThe energy sector (mainly power and heatgeneration) is the main contributor to EUCO2 emissions (32%), followed by transport(24%) and industry (23%) (Figure 3.1.5). Incentral and eastern Europe transport makesa relatively smaller, and energy supply and
Table 3.1.5.National EU Member States’ policies and measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions
Energy general
Energy/CO2 taximplemented
Energy/CO2 taximplemented forhouseholds, similartax for the industrysector
Energy/CO2 taximplemented
Powergeneration
promotion ofcombined heatand power (CHP)plants andrenewable energy
promotion ofCHP andrenewable energy
promotion of CHPand electricityproduction frombiomass;construction ofnew gas-fired(replacing coal)power plants after2000. Large scaleuse of windenergy forelectricity
increased use ofnatural gas,increasing energyefficiency inbuildings
promotion ofCHP
Others
forestry: measuresto enhance carbonsequestration
forestry: increasingforest carbonsequestration
new Länder:emission reductionsby replacement oflignite by otherfuels, moderni-sation of industrialinstallations,improvement ofenergy efficiency(industry, resi-dential sector)
forestry: Control offorest resources,re-afforestationprogramme.
forestry:afforestationprogramme.
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxem-bourg
.../...
Environmental Issues9 0
3.2. Current trends in EU Member States
Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxideEU CO2 emissions decreased by 1% between1990 and 1996, although the trend variesconsiderably between Member States (Tables3.1.6 and 3.1.7). The decrease for the EU asa whole depends strongly on the reductionsin Germany and the UK. Germany has thelargest national CO2 emission in the EU,with a contribution of approximately 30% toEU emissions in 1995. Between 1990 and1996 the largest absolute emission reductiontook place in Germany, mainly caused by theeconomic restructuring of the new Länder.The substantial reduction in emissions in theUK was mainly caused by fuel switching fromcoal to natural gas.
CO2 emission trends can be compared witheconomic development in these years.Between 1960 and 1990, GDP growth foreach five-year period varied in EU MemberStates between 8% and 28%. In the period1990-1996, GDP growth in the EU was about9% (almost 6% between 1990 and 1995).With the exception of the second oil crisis inthe early 1980s, the five-year average GDP
industry a larger contribution than in theEU. The main sources of CH4 emissions inEU are agriculture (42%), in particular fromruminants (enteric fermentation and ma-nure management), waste treatment anddisposal (36%) and others, mainly coalmining and leakage from natural-gas distri-bution networks (17%). Estimates formethane are more uncertain than for CO2
emissions since the major agriculturalsources and emissions from waste treatmentare less well quantified.
The main sources of N2O emissions in EU arefrom fertilised agricultural land (46%),industry (26%), in particular adipic acid andnitric acid manufacture, the transport sector(7%) and the energy sector (7%). Emissionsfrom transport are due to the introduction ofthree-way catalysts in cars, which reduceemissions of nitrogen oxides, carbon monox-ide and hydrocarbons, but as a side-effectincrease the emissions of nitrous oxides. Asfor methane, the data is more uncertain,mainly because the major agricultural sourcesare less well quantified. In central and easternEurope the share of agriculture is larger, andthat of industry and transport smaller.
Energygeneral
Powergeneration
Industry Transport Residential Others
Nether-lands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
UnitedKingdom
increase of CHP,increasingrenewable energyand partial fuelswitch to wood;providing adequatepayments for energygenerated fromrenewable sources
introduction ofnatural gas,increased use ofrenewables,technologicalimprovements
promote renew-able energy (bio-fuels, wind powerand solar energy),increase efficiency
switch from coal tonatural gas continu-ing, improvementsin the produc-tivityof the nuclear plants,increase CHP,promote renewablesources of energy
voluntaryagreements onenergy efficiency
energy conser-vation, fuelswitching,promotion ofnatural gas andCHP
energyconservation, fuelswitching,promotion ofnatural gas andCHP
stricterregulations forenergy efficiencyfor new buildings
Energy/CO2 taximplemented
Energy/CO2 taximplemented
waste treatment: 5million tonnes ofwaste for energypurposes by 2000
forestry: switch tosustainablepractices
Greenhouse gases and climate change 9 1
Figure 3.1.5Greenhouse gas emissions by sector in EU andAccession Countries
Source: EEA, ETC/AE, 1998
growth in the period 1960 to 1990 was about16%. This indicates that the reduction ofCO2 emissions between 1990 and 1996 ispartly related to the relatively low GDPgrowth in this period and is partly due to anincrease in energy efficiency and the effectsof policies and measures to reduce GHGemissions (see Table 3.1.7).
EU nitrous oxide emissions decreased 5%in 1996 from 1990 levels, although thistrend varies considerably between theMember States. Although the trend and itscauses are more uncertain than for CO2 thelargest reductions appear to be due tofalling production levels for adipic andnitric acid in industry and a reduction inthe consumption of inorganic nitrogenousfertilisers in agriculture. These reductionswere partially offset by an increase intransport emissions as the number of carswith catalytic converters increased (AEA,1998a).
EU methane emissions fell by 7% between1990 and 1995, with some variation betweenMember States. As for nitrous oxides thetrend and its causes are more uncertain thanfor CO2 emissions. The largest emissionreduction appears to be due to the declineof deep mining in the UK (and to someextent in Germany) and the replacement ofthe old gas distribution pipework. Agricul-tural emissions also fell, due mainly to areduction in the number of dairy cows (AEA,1998b).
Halogenated gasesEmission estimates of the three groups ofhalogenated gases HFCs, PFCs and SF6 haveonly recently been prepared, but not yet byall Member States. For the EU, 1995 willprobably be the base year under the KyotoProtocol for reduction in emissions of thesegases.
Total estimated EU emissions in 1995 of thehalogenated gases HFC’s, PFC’s and SF6 areabout 58 Mt CO2-equivalents, which is 1-2%of total EU emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2Oin 1990 (in CO2-equivalent). The largestcontribution comes from HFCs (64%)followed by SF6 (25%) (Table 3.1.8).
At present HFCs are mainly emitted as a by-product during the production of HCFC-22.The most important source of SF6 is electric-ity distribution (use in switches) and of PFCsindustrial production processes in theprimary aluminium and the electronicsindustry.
100
80
60
40
20
0
1980
EU
100
80
60
40
20
0
1980
100
80
60
40
20
0
1980
% C
H
4
e
mis
sio
ns
% N
2O
em
issi
on
s%
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns
Other Waste treatment
Transport Agriculture
Industry
1985
1990
1995
1985
1990
1995
1985
1990
1995
100
80
60
40
20
0
1995
1990
AccessionCountries *
100
80
60
40
20
0
1995
1990
100
80
60
40
20
0
1995
1990
% C
H4 e
mis
sio
ns
% N
2
O e
mis
sio
ns
% C
O2 e
mis
sio
ns
Energy
* Not including Cyprus
Environmental Issues9 2
Estimates for 1996 were not available for Austria, Denmark, France, Italy, Portugal and Spain.For these countries 1994 or 1995 estimates have been used for a preliminary EU15 1996estimate. The CO2 estimates are not corrected for temperature or electricity trade. SomeMember States use corrected CO
2 estimates to better reflect national circumstances.
Source: EEA, 1999a
4. Progress and outlook (2000 and 2010)
4.1 Progress towards EU target of CO2
stabilisation by 2000If national projections of CO2 emissions for2000 are aggregated for the EU, the result isa 2% reduction compared with the 1990level (Table 3.1.9), with a decrease in sixMember States.
However, these projections are subject touncertainties related to socio-economicdevelopments and the success of the imple-mentation of policies and measures, and alsohave methodological differences.
The European Commission has made its ownprojections, based on a consistent methodol-ogy for the EU and derived from the Com-mission’s pre-Kyoto ‘baseline’ energy sce-nario (which assumes no additional policyaction for CO2 abatement).
The projections for the year 2000 show EUenergy-related CO2 emissions 2% above 1990levels; transport is the fastest-growing sectorwith emissions increasing to 22% above the1990 level in 2000.
The combination of these two assessments(national estimates and pre-Kyoto EU energyscenario) suggests that EU CO2 emissions in2000 could be in the range of 2% above orbelow 1990 levels.
4.2. Baseline scenario for 2010 (reaching the Kyoto target for EU?)The EU is also committed (under the KyotoProtocol) to an 8% reduction by 2008-2012(from 1990 levels) in emissions of the sixmain greenhouse gases.
EU total greenhouse gas emissions under thebaseline scenario are projected to increaseby about 6% in 2010 from 1990 levels (Fig-ure 3.1.6).
Because the Kyoto targets for the EU andother UNFCCC Parties are expressed in CO2-equivalents, as a sum of all six greenhousegases, it is essential to combine the informa-tion on the emissions in 1990 and 2010(baseline) for all six gases. Thus it is possibleto assess the emission reductions required,on top of the assumptions on policies andmeasures in the baseline scenario, forachieving the Kyoto target for the EU(Figure 3.1.6).
The Kyoto target of -8% requires a reductionof about 600 Mt CO2-equivalent from the
Table 3.1.6.
CO2 CH4 N2O
(in million tonnes) (in 1 000 tonnes)
MEMBER STATE Emissions Removals/Sinks
Austria 62 14 580 13
Belgium 129 2 591 35
Denmark 60 1 430 33
Finland 66 14 270 18
France 399 60 2844 174
Germany 910 30 4788 210
Greece 92 - 457 29
Ireland 35 6 800 26
Italy 448 36 2516 162
Luxembourg 7 0 24 1
Netherlands 185 2 1179 72
Portugal 51 1 834 14
Spain 248 29 2370 90
Sweden 63 32 297 10
United Kingdom 593 19 3712 189
EU15 3 347 247 21 692 1 076
Greenhouse gas emissions and removals/sinks in1996 (CO2, CH4, N2O) – EU
CO2 GDP
MEMBER STATE
Austria 0.2 11.9
Belgium 10.7 7.8
Denmark 13.9 8.7
Finland 12.0 -3.4
France 1.7 4.8
Germany -10.3 9.5
Greece 7.8 7.2
Ireland 13.3 35.7
Italy 1.4 6.8
Luxembourg - 46.6 15.1
Netherlands 14.6 9.5
Portugal 7.9 8.9
Spain 2.2 7.8
Sweden 14.3 4.7
United Kingdom - 3.5 6.5
EU15 - 0.7 9.0
Table 3.1.7. CO2 emissions and GDP growth in EU: percentagechange 1990-1996
Source: EEA, 1999a
Greenhouse gases and climate change 9 3
Inventory 1990 Projections 2000
(million tonnes CO2) (Mt)
MEMBER STATE 1990 (base year) 2000 with measuress
Austria 62 57
Belgium 116 125
Denmark 52 54
Finland 59 60
France 392 377
Germany 1 014 894
Greece 85 98
Ireland 31 35
Italy 442 446
Luxembourg 13 7
Netherlands 161 189
Portugal 47 50
Spain 226 258
Sweden 55 60
United Kingdom 615 578
EU15 3 372 3 290
Table 3.1.9.CO2 emissions in EU Member States, reported(1990) and projected (2000)
The column ‘with measures’ represents the expected emissions in 2000, taking into accountthe policies and measures that were already adopted by the Member States and for which anestimation of reduction potential was available from national programmes (1997/1998).
Source: EEA 1999
projected baseline scenario emissions in2010 (from 4 490 to 3 890 Mt CO2-equiva-lent, while the 1990 emissions were 4 227 MtCO2-equivalent).
Carbon dioxideThe projected EU CO2 emissions for 2010based on the pre-Kyoto baseline scenario areabout 8% above the 1990 level (Figure3.1.7).
This baseline scenario for 2010 is based onthe assumption of no additional EU policyaction for CO2 abatement. The pre-Kyotoscenario relates only to fuel-related CO2
emissions (about 95% of total CO2 emis-sions). (For the main assumptions in thisscenario, see Chapters 1.1. and 2.2.).
Transport is the fastest-growing sector withemissions projected to increase by 22% (in2000) and 39% (in 2010) above the 1990level (Figure 3.1.8). In contrast, industrialCO2 emissions are projected to decrease by15% between 1990 and 2010, while CO2
emissions from the domestic/tertiary sectorare projected to remain stable. This is mainlydue to expected increased market penetra-tion of electrical and heating equipment – ineffect CO2 emissions are exported to thepower generation sector. Nevertheless, CO2
emissions in the power- and heat-producingsector are projected to remain at the 1990level until 2010, although some increase canbe expected after 2010, due to changes inthe power-generation structure (such asretirement of nuclear power plants at theend of their lifetime).
Among the Member States, only Germany isprojected to have CO2 emissions in 2010below the 1990 level. In both 1995 and 2010,about half of the CO2 emissions are relatedto combustion of liquid fuels. An importantshift however is occurring away from solidfuels to gaseous fuels. This explains therelatively small increase (+8%) in aggregateCO2 emissions, compared to the largerincrease in total energy consumption be-tween 1995 and 2010 and demonstrates apartial de-coupling between CO2 emissionsand energy consumption.
Methane and nitrous oxideVarious recent studies for the Commissionhave provided EU baseline scenario emissionestimates for methane and nitrous oxides for2010 (AEA, 1998a, 1998b; Ecofys, 1998a,1998b; Coherence, 1998). The results arecomparable but have some different assump-tions on the extent to which measures for
Main emission sources of HFCs,PFCs and SF6 in EU in 1995
Source: Ecofys, 1998a
HFCs
37 Mt
HFC production/handling
HCFC-22 production
Refrigeration
Mobile airconditioners
Foam blowing
Solvent use
Aerosols, Fireextinguishers
PFCs
7 Mt
Primary aluminiumproduction
Semiconductormanufacturing
SF6
14 Mt
Electricity distribution
Magnesium production
Semiconductormanufacturing
Noise-insulatingwindows
Tyres
Environmental Issues9 4
the industry sector (N2O emissions) and theagricultural sector (CH4 and N2O emissions)are included in the scenario.
Methane emissions in the EU are projectedto decrease by 8% between 1990 and 2010(Coherence, 1998) mainly due to largeemission decreases from coal mining, as coalproduction is projected to fall, and fromagriculture as cattle numbers are projectedto fall. Reductions from the waste sector, forexample through measures to collect andremove methane emissions from newlandfills, are not included in this baselinescenario (see also section 5).
EU nitrous oxide emissions are projected toincrease by 9% between 1990 and 2010(Ecofys, 1998b), mainly due to increases inemissions from passenger-car catalyticconverters. No reductions are assumed fromthe industrial sector (production of adipicand nitric acid) and only minor reductionsfrom agriculture.
Halogenated gasesFor the halogenated gases an indicativebaseline scenario emission projection (basedon the limited information available) hasbeen prepared for the Commission (Ecofys,1998a; March Consulting Group, 1998). In2010, total fluorocarbon emissions areprojected to be about 82 Mt CO2-equivalent,an increase of about 40% compared with1995 emissions of 58 Mt. The share of HFCsis expected to rise to 79%, while the sharesof SF6 and PFC’s would decrease to 15% and6% respectively by 2010.
Emission reductions by 2010 for an enlarged EUThe analysis given above focuses on the EU.For other countries in Europe much lessdata is available. This section, however,presents a preliminary analysis of the emis-sions by 2010 of an enlarged EU, meaningEU15 and the 10 central and eastern Euro-pean Accession Countries (AC10). Theseemissions could be compared to the currentKyoto targets for the EU and AccessionCountries, although this would only beindicative since agreed targets for a poten-tially enlarged EU do not exist.
For AC10 information is available from astudy performed by IIASA for EEA (EEA,1999b), using the official energy projectionsfor 2010 provided by these countries.
There have been significant falls in green-house gas emissions in Eastern Europe since1990. CO2 emissions in AC10 fell by 20%
5000
EU
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Accession Countries*
1990 2010 1990 2010
CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6
mill
ion
tonn
es C
O2
equi
vale
nt
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
*not including Cyprus
Source: European Commission, 1999; Ecofys, 1998a, 1998b; AEA, 1998a, 1998b, UNFCCC,1998, EEA, 1999a; EEA, 1999 b.
Greenhouse gas emissions in EU and AC10 by 2010– baseline scenario
Figure 3.1.6
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
CO
2 em
issi
ons
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
Solid fuel Liquid fuel Gas
Domestic/tertiary Transport Industry Energy
1990 2010
31%19%
50%48%
32%20%
Source: European Commission, 1999; Capros, 1998, European Commission, 1997a
EU15 energy-related baseline CO2 emissionprojections by sector and by fuelFigure 3.1.7
Greenhouse gases and climate change 9 5
Energy sector
Other
Wastetreatment
Industry
Agriculture
1500
1000
500
0
*only CO2, CH4 and N2O
1990
2010
GHG* emissions in CO2 equivalents
Transport
Source: EEA
Sectoral contribution to greenhouse gases in theEU (1990-2010)
Figure 3.1.8
Box 3.1.3 Carbon sinks of forests
According to Article 3.3. of the UNFCCC KyotoProtocol, Parties can use the net changes ingreenhouse gas emissions from sources andremovals by sinks to meet their commitments, butonly those resulting from direct human-inducedland-use change and forestry activities and limitedto afforestation, reforestation, and deforestationsince 1990. Afforestation and reforestation canincrease the stock of carbon and therefore act as anet sink. On the other hand deforestation leads toadditional net emissions of CO2. Further work toclarify the definitions, to remove majoruncertainties and to agree methodologies andappropriate modalities will be addressed in future.The IPCC will produce a special report on the issueof carbon sinks in 2000.
Additional land-use and land-use change activitiesthat could be used to contribute to the fulfilment ofthe Kyoto target may be specified under Article 3.4of the Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC negotiations onthis issue will start after 2000.
The European Forest Institute prepared for EEA(EFI, 1998) a preliminary analysis of the issue offorest carbon sinks in Europe, related to the KyotoProtocol. The more comprehensive EUROFLUXproject (Martin et. al., 1998) provides similar results,while taking into account all important carbonfluxes. It provides long-term carbon dioxide andwater vapor fluxes of European forests. The mainconclusions of the EFIstudy are:
• for Europe the land-use change and forestrycarbon balance (usually sinks) reported by thecountries to UNFCCC using the IPCCGuidelines, is comparable to a uniform estimatefrom FAO statistics (a carbon sink of 50-70million tonne (Mt) C per year for EU15);
• there are large differences in the nationalmethods used;
• the forest carbon sink according to the KyotoProtocol can be estimated in different ways,because the definition of afforestation is notclear. Using FAO definitions the carbon balancefor EU15 is estimated to be a sink of 10 Mt Cper year, while using the IPCC definitions this isonly 1 Mt C per year;
• the forest carbon sinks are relatively smallcompared with the EU15 CO2 emissions (of 3372 Mt or 920 Mt C), depending on thedefinitions between 0.1% and 1%. This showsthat to reach the EU Kyoto commitment for2008-2012 carbon sequestration can form onlya small part of the required policies andmeasures, although the potential for carbonsequestration can vary considerably betweencountries.
Furthermore it should be noted that the accountingapproach for carbon sinks in the Kyoto Protocol canlead to incentives with negative impacts on biodiver-sity conservation and soil protection (WBGU, 1998).
between 1990 and 1995. By 2010, GDP isexpected to be 31% higher than in 1990,while energy consumption would rise by only4% (UNECE, 1996). In addition, there islikely to be a switch to fuels that emit loweramounts of greenhouse gases (EEA, 1999b).The baseline scenario suggests an 8% de-crease in CO2 emissions for the AC10 by2010.
For AC10 information on baseline emissionprojections for methane, nitrous oxide andthe fluorocarbons is very limited. Neverthe-less, some indicative estimates for 2010 forhave been prepared by EEA/ETC-AE (seeFigure 3.1.6), according to which the totalgreenhouse gas emissions for the AC10 areprojected to decrease by 11% in 2010 from1990 levels. Combined with the projected6% increase for EU greenhouse gas emis-sions, this would probably result in a 2%increase in emissions of a potentially en-larged EU during the same period.
It is clear that under the assumptions of thebaseline scenario, an EU25 target for 2012emissions between 6% and 8% below 1990levels would not be achievable.
Environmental Issues9 6
(1) low means approximately zero costs or cost savings that offset the costs of the measure
Industry (BAT installed 86 Xin adipic and nitric acidproduction)
Energy (combustion) 8 X
EU total N2O 120 below 50
Halogenated gases:
HFC (HFC manufacturing, 48 Xreduce leakage or usesubstitutes)
PFC 4 X
SF6 7 X
EU total halogenated gases 60 below 50
EU total all greenhouse gases 770 below 50
Table 3.1.10. Possible potential for greenhouse emissionreduction and costs in the EU
5. Possible future responses in the European Union
According to the initial analysis, as describedabove, the effort required to meet the EUreduction objective under the Kyoto Proto-col is estimated to be around 600 Mtonnes ofCO2-equivalent.
An important element in an EU climatechange policy will be the cost-effectiveness ofpolicies and measures. This means a combi-nation of measures for the six gases that willhave the least cost for all sectors together. Itshould be noted that apart from cost-effec-tiveness other criteria for selection andimplementation of measures are also impor-tant, such as political acceptability, fairness(for example between sectors), social barri-ers and industrial competitiveness.
Use of all abatement measures with a costbelow 50 euros/tonne CO2-equivalent wouldgive a total technical reduction potential of770 Mt CO2-equivalent for the six green-house gases from (Table 3.1.10), whichincludes 440Mt from measures targeted atCO2. This is more than the reduction re-quired for achieving the Kyoto emissionreduction target of 600 Mt CO2-equivalent. Itshould be noted that there are quite largeranges in cost estimates from the variousstudies, so the cost estimates should only beregarded as indicative. Some of the measurespresented here are already being planned orimplemented in various Member States.
The Commission and Member States willundertake further assessments of policiesand measures at both EU and national levelsin conjunction with the Kyoto ProtocolFlexible Mechanisms. The EU Strategy onClimate Change, expected in 1999, will makean important contribution to this process.
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