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32,000
07 February, 2019
Bottom-Line: Trend of MCX Gold is short term negative, Silver prices CAN MOVE sideways to negative, MCX Copper the trend remains positive and trend for Crude is range bound.
MCX Gold Continuous Daily chart:
GOLD-1M - Daily 06-02-2019 Open 33360, Hi 33445, Lo 33292, Close 33327 (0.3%) EMA(Close,50)
wave 3 is corrective as it is part of Ending Diagonal
34,000
33,327
33,000
b)
(d)
(f)
(i
c)
a
b
c e g
x
a f
b d
32,040.9
31,000
30,000
(ii) 29,000
(c)
(e)
(g) 2
28,000
27,000
26,000
2017 Apr Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct 2019
GOLD-1M - RSI(14) = 73.10 73.1004
70
30
2017 Apr Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct 2019
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-MCX Gold April 60 min chart:
M_GOLD-APR (33,285.00, 33,285.00, 33,151.00, 33,151.00, -151.00)
g
(c)
(a)
33800
33700
33600
33500
33400
33300
33200
33100
33000
32900
32800
32700
32600
32500
32400
32300
32200
(a)
(b)
x
32100
32000
31900
31800
31700
31600
31500
31400
31300
31200
31100
31000
80
70
60
50
40
30
18 24 31 7 14 21 28 4
2018 2019 February
Wave analysis:
As shown on daily chart, post making a high near 33800 levels prices witnessed a strong selling pressure and are now moving in range. Currently second set of correction is ongoing within wave iii. However, its 50-days EMA is providing support on downside keeping the tone positive.
As shown on hourly chart, wave (b) is ongoing on downside. Prices have broken its support placed near 33200 levels and drifted towards lower levels of 33150 levels. Also its 50-periods EMA which was acting as support is now providing resistance on upside indicating change in its existing trend. So for now as long as 33300 is intact on upside sideways to negative action can be expected in coming sessions.
In short, trend of MCX Gold is short term negative and move towards 33000 or lower levels can be expected. It is advisable to maintain proper resistance near 33300 levels to capture this downmove in form of wave b.
Relative Strength Index (25.3935)
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40,00
MCX Silver continuous daily chart:
SILVER-1M - Daily 06-02-2019 Open 40437, Hi 40437, Lo 40085, Close 40146 (-0.5%) EMA(Close,20)
(x)
(b)
45,000
44,000
43,000
(a)
(c)
(d)
(f)
(g)
(x)
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
(f)
(x)
b
(g)
42,000
41,000
40,146 0
39,767.7
39,000
38,000
37,000
(e)
a
c (a)
36,000
35,000
34,000
SILVER-1M - RSI(14) = 60.73 70
60.7251
30
Apr Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct 2019
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Silver Mar 60 mins chart:
x
a
b
M_SILVER-MAR (40,031.00, 40,056.00, 40,002.00, 40,011.00, -101.00)
a
e
c
g
d
f x
41000
40900
40800
40700
40600
40500
40400
40300
40200
40100
40000
39900
39800
39700
39600
39500
39400
39300
39200
39100
39000
38900
38800
38700
38600
38500
38400
38300
38200
38100
38000
37900
37800
37700
37600
37500
37400
37300
37200
37100
37000
36900
Relative Strength Index (31.6211)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
19 24 31 7 14 21 28 4 2018 2019 February
Wave analysis
In the previous update for Silver we mentioned, “a decisive break below 40200 can take prices lower towards 40000." Prices moved in a similar manner and made a low near 40080 levels.
As shown on the daily chart, prices closed below the prior bars indicating that the trend might have reversed on the downside. A close below 40000 will further infuse selling pressure.
As shown on the hourly chart, prices have completed wave a on the upside and are moving in the next leg on the downside in the form of wave b. Also the Exponential Moving Average which was acting as a support is now providing resistance on the upside. Also prices have managed to come near a lower end of the band so a decisive break below 40000 will further infuse selling pressure taking prices lower towards 39750 levels.
In short trend for Silver remains sideways to negative and a move towards 39750 can be expected as long as 40200 remains intact on the upside over the short term.
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a
MCX Crude daily chart:
CRUDEOIL-1M - Daily 06-02-2019 Open 3846, Hi 3893, Lo 3796, Close 3881 (0.9%) EMA(Close,20)
X
(g) c 100.0%
6,000
5,500
(e) a
(g)
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
bx bd b
c ac e
(f)
61.8%
50.0%
38.2%
5,000
4,500
4,000 3,881
(b)
(c)
(e) Y
(a)
(c)
(b)
(e)
(d)
(f)
(x)
0.0% a
3,774.22
3,500
3,000
2,500
Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct 2019
CRUDEOIL-1M - RSI(14) = 57.66
70
57.6566
30
Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct 2019
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MCX Crude Feb 60 min chart:
a
a
M_CRUDEOIL-FEB (3,875.00, 3,876.00, 3,867.00, 3,869.00, -7.00)
a
c
x b
a b
c
x
b
c
4100
4050
4000
3950
3900
3850
3800
3750
3700
3650
3600
3550
3500
3450
3400
3350
3300
3250
3200
3150
3100
3050
3000
2950
2900
Relative Strength Index (51.1875)
50
19 24 31 7 14 21 28 4 2018 2019 February
Wave analysis:
In previous update for Crude we mentioned, "A decisive break below 3850 can take prices lower towards 3800" BANG ON ! Prices moved precisely as expected and made a low near 3796 levels.
As shown on the hourly chart, prices are moving in a range since past few sessions and have failed to show any clear breakout. In the previous session also prices moved lower for the first half of the session however post that some buying witnessed a prices closed within range. We are showing Bollinger Bands on the chart and prices are currently near the upper end of the range. A decisive break above 3900 can take prices higher towards 3950 whereas on the downside a break below 3840 can take prices towards the lower end of the range.
In short, trend for Crude is range bound between 3800 and 3900. A directional breakout is now required for a clear trend to emerge. Until then buying near the support and selling near the resistance strategy can be adopted.
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45
43
70
MCX Copper Daily chart:
COPPER-1M - Daily 06-02-2019 Open 447.3, Hi 451.35, Lo 446.55, Close 449.15 (0.7%)
iii g
500
490
e
a b
a x
b
c x
d f y
a i of v
c c
x
b
480
470
460
449.15 0
440
429.48 0
420
iv
a ii of v
c w
410
400
390
2018 Apr Jul Oct 2019
COPPER-1M - RSI(14) = 68.49 68.4854
30
2018 Apr Jul Oct 2019
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MCX Copper Feb 60 mins chart:
a
b
c
M_COPPER-FEB (448.90, 448.90, 448.00, 448.25, -0.95)
d
e
ii of v
a
b
455
450
445
440
435
430
425
420
415
410
405
400
395
Relative Strength Index (56.6267)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
24 31 7 14 21 28 4 2019 February
Waves Analysis:
MCX Copper has been moving towards higher levels and managing protect its previous bars low from past 9 consecutive days indicating momentum is building on upside.
As shown in the hourly chart, prices are moving precisely within its blue channel and are now hovering over the support trendline. Break of which will provide first indication of change in trend. However as long as this support trendline is intact on downside move towards channel resistance can be expected. Also, its 50-periods EMA is providing support of downside keeping the tone [positive.
In short, for Copper trend is positive. Move towards 455 can be expected. For this outlook to remain valid 443 must be intact on downside.
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