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3Q03 Semiconductor and Electronics Manufacturing ForecastSan Jose, California • 8 July 2003
Presenters: Klaus-Dieter Rinnen
Mary Olsson
Jim Hines
Jim WalkerEmerging Technologies and Semiconductors
Gartner Dataquest
Semiconductor Manufacturing Market Semiconductor Manufacturing Market Outlook: Fundamentals Point to GrowthOutlook: Fundamentals Point to Growth
2
Forecast Growth Scorecard
Revenue Growth (%) 2002 2003 Base Up Base Down
World GDP +2.0 +2.2U.S. GDP +2.5 +2.4
Electronic Equipment* -1.4 +4 Semiconductor +1.9 +12 +8 +1
Capital Spending -38 +15 +8 +1
Equipment Spending -30 +18 +11 +3 WFE Equipment -32 +15 +9 +1 P&A Equipment -22 +35 +26 +17
Silicon Shipment (MSI) +19 +10
*Production revenue
3
+2.
2
+3.
4
+2.
0
+1.
2
+4.
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: Global Insight (June 2003)
Real GDP Growth (Percent) •U.S. tax cuts stimulate strong U.S. consumer spending•Eurozone adopts looser
economic policies•Capital spending revives•Dollar depreciates slowly
•Wild cards limited
2H03 revival still possible, but full recovery may be
pushed out to 1H04
•U.S. tax cuts fail to stimulate U.S. consumer spending
•Eurozone maintains tight economic policies
•Capital spending falters•Dollar crashes
•Wild cards wreak havoc
Global GDP Growth, 2000-2004
4
Overall IT Trend — Weighted/Monthly:2003 Cautious Underspending; 2004 Increase
Key Trends: Current spending remains below
budgeted levels Stalled recovery in current spending
Contributing factors:– War with Iraq– SARS outbreak– Slow economy
Technology manufacturing and communications vertical market lags current spending
Projected demand in 2004 slightly higher, but still below prewar level
5
Gartner Dataquest’s Index of Semiconductor Market Leading Indicators, July 2003
-45%
-30%
-15%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Semiconductor Growth
Indicator
Actual ForecastForecast
Semiconductor Revenue Growth
6
Monitoring Phased Recovery Through 2004
1H03 2H03 1H04 2H04
Cell Phones
PCs
•Recovery under way:•Equipment markets slowly
improving•Cell phones transition to higher
generations, especially in Japan•PC market improving
•Continued recovery depends on:•Growth in cell phone demand •PC replacement cycle starts in 2H03•Stronger electronic
equipment production in 2004
SpendingConsumer Corporate
?
Communications
7
Semiconductor Demand by Application
0% 5% 10% 15%
41%
24%
17%
2003 Semiconductor “Pie”CAGR (%) 2002-2007
8%
7%
3%
Automotive
Communications
Industrial
Data Processing
Military/Civil/Aerospace
Consumer
8
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Billions of Dollars
Semiconductor Revenue Forecast:Recovery Gains Momentum in 2003
8%2%
23%
22%-5%
6%Upside Potential
9
Quarterly Semiconductor Revenue: Market Expands on 2H03 Improvement
Optimistic PessimisticMost Likely
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04
Billions of Dollars
2002
1.9%
Scenarios
OptimisticMost LikelyPessimistic
2003
+12.3% +8.3% +1.3%
10
Conclusions
Inventory days peaked in 1Q01
Healthy drop in 1Q03
Good “bill of health” for inventories
Supply Outlook: Semiconductor Inventory
Dataquest Semiconductor Inventory Index
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1Q99 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03
11
Wafer Fab:Overall Industry Utilization
Ratio of Silicon Consumed to Fab Capacity
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1Q00
3Q00
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
Leading Edge
12
Wafer Fab: Foundry ServicesFoundry Fab Utilization
Ratio of Silicon Consumed to Fab Capacity
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1Q00
3Q00
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
Leading Edge
13
Wafer Fab: Foundry Services Quarterly Revenue Forecast Scenarios
Optimistic PessimisticMost Likely
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04
Billions of Dollars
2002
+16%
Scenarios
OptimisticMost Likely
Pessimistic
2003
+27% (0.25)+23% (0.60)+21% (0.15)
14
Conclusions
2003: Demand growth and price pressure
2004: Tightening capacity
2005: Strong demand growth and pricing support
Wafer Fab: Foundry Services Market Revenue Forecast
Revenue (Billions of Dollars)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
2000 2003 2006
15
Wafer Fab: Equipment Quarterly Revenue Forecast Scenarios
Optimistic PessimisticMost Likely
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04
Billions of Dollars
2002
-32%
Scenarios
OptimisticMost LikelyPessimistic
2003
+16% (0.25) +9% (0.60) +1% (0.15)
16
Wafer Fab: EquipmentWhat Is Hot and What Is Not in 2003?
Note: Some segments include OEM sales
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
ECD
Steppers
2003 Growth
2003 Revenue (Millions of Dollars)
Market Growth
TrackDry Etch
CMP Nontube CVD
PVD
RTP
ImplantProcess Control
Wet Clean
Factory Automation
193-nm Steppers
0%
20%
40%
50%
30%
10%
17
Packaging and Assembly: Overall Industry Utilization
Factory Utilization
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1Q00
2Q00
3Q00
4Q00
1Q01
2Q01
3Q01
4Q01
1Q02
2Q02
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
4Q03
Leading Edge
18
Packaging and Assembly: SAT Services Quarterly Utilization
Factory Utilization
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1Q00
2Q00
3Q00
4Q00
1Q01
2Q01
3Q01
4Q01
1Q02
2Q02
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
4Q03
Leading Edge
19
Packaging and Assembly: SATS Market Quarterly Revenue Forecast Scenarios
Optimistic PessimisticMost Likely
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04
2002
+18%
Scenarios
OptimisticMost Likely
Pessimistic
2003
+29% (0.30)+22% (0.55)+16% (0.15)
Billions of Dollars
20
Conclusions
2003: Packaging production exceeds 2000; strong QFN
2004: Flip chip and SIP become strong drivers
2005: WLP moves into mainstream
Packaging and Assembly: SAT ServicesAnnual Revenue Forecast
Revenue (Billions of Dollars)
0
10
20
30
2000 2004
21
Packaging and Assembly: Equipment Quarterly Revenue Forecast Scenarios
Optimistic PessimisticMost Likely
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04
2002
-22%
Scenarios
OptimisticMost Likely
Pessimistic
2003
+35% (0.25)+26% (0.55)+17% (0.20)
Billions of Dollars
22
Packaging and Assembly: Equipment What Is Hot and What Is Not in 2003?
Molding/Encapsulation
AP Lithography
2003 Growth
2003 Revenue (Millions of Dollars)
Die Bonders
Market Growth
Package Singulation
Flip-Chip Bonders
Dicing Saws
Contact Prober
Vision Inspection
Solder Ball Attach
Test Handlers
Wire Bonders
15%
25%
35%
0 150 300 450 600
23
Long-Term View: Cycles ContinueCapital Spending and Equipment Forecasts
Billions of Dollars
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Capital Spending
Billions of Dollars
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Semiconductor Equipment (Excluding Test)
24
Conclusions Economy
Expect improvement in 2003, albeit back-end-loaded Weakness in Europe and Japan sharpens need for U.S. improvements
Electronic equipment Expect gradually improving macro conditions to spur phased recovery Start of Y2K PC replacement cycle expected; strength is questionable Corporate spending returns in 2003; strength depends on economy
Semiconductors Expect revenue growth of 8 percent in 2003 Expect tightening capacity utilization and better demand to drive 2004
Supply-side and capital equipment Healthy inventories and rising demand lead to improving fab utilization Supply-side fundamentals encourage more optimistic outlook on CAPEX with 7.9
percent growth in 2003 Holding to WFE growth of 8.7 percent Upgrade packaging equipment segment to 26 percent growth for 2003 Next fab build cycle slips into 2004; next downcycle in late 2005/early 2006
25
Gartner Dataquest Events at Upcoming SEMICON/West 2003
SEMICON/West 2003 Forum
– Semiconductors: Fishing in Tide Pools or Open Seas
– 16 July 2003 San Francisco, CA
– For more information or to register, please visit www4.gartner.com/2_events/local_briefings/asset_8216.jsp
Breakfast Briefing
– The Back End Leads the Recovery
– 18 July 2003 San Jose, CA
– For more information, please visit the Featured Events section on the Gartner Semiconductor Focus Page: www4.gartner.com/pages/section.php.id.2014.s.8.jsp
– For registration, please contact Becky Tonnesen at [email protected]