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118H I S D O C U M E N T I S T H E P R O P E R T Y O F H I S B R I T A N N I C M A J E S T Y ' S G O V E R N M E N T -T O B E K E P T U N D E R L O C K A N D K E Y . I t i s requ ested th at spec ial care may be ta ke n iu

ensure the secrecy of this document .

S E C R E T.W . P . (40)344.4TH JULY. 1 9 4 0 o

WAR SABIWET. IMMINENCE OF A GERMAN INVASION OF GREAT BRITAIN.

Re-port by the Joint Intelligence Sub-Committee.

In accordance with the instructi onof the Prime Minister we have had under urgent consideration the question of the imminence of a German invasion of Great Britain. 2. On 1st July we considered, in Paper No. \ T . I. C. ( 4 0 ) 1 , 4 4 * .what was likely to be'Germany's next move" now that France has collapsed. Our view was that there is at present little direct evidence to indicate what this next move is likely to be, and Germany's military superiority is such as to enable her to move in any direction she pleases with little ^r no warning. Since that date we have had little further conclusive evidence. 3. Assuming however that Germany's next move will take the form of an invasion, we have examined all the evidence available as to the likelihood and imminence of such an invasion. This evidence is attached in Appendix "A". 4 o We are satisfied from this evidence that Germany is making preparation for raids in force, or for invasion of the British Isles. In view of the fact that these preparations are well advanced Germany may well move at any time at a date most suitable to her. The evidence available however, suggests that Germany's.full strength will not be developed until 15th July. 5. We must point out however, that some of the evidence contained in Appendix "*A" is capable of more than one interpretation. Furthermore, the question of Germany's immediate action is much confused by the fliod of tendentious reports and propaganda which are being deliberately put about. CONCLUSIONS. 6. We consider that large-scale raids, on the British Isles involving all three arms, may take place at any moment. .A full-scale invasion is unlikely to take place before the middle of July. This matter is under our daily review.

(Signed) V.F.W. CAVENDISH-BENTINGK. J.N. GODFREY. Richmond Terrace, S.W.1. F.G. BEAUMONT-NESBITT. 4TH JULY, 1940. A.R. BOYLE.

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THE TMMII^NCE OF. A^GERMAN j:HYA.SIONoAVAILABLE EVIDENCEr Evidence, Source;

NORWAY. 1. There are reports of an increase Secret in the numbers of troops in Norway; Report,, the increase Is said to include some parattiivC troops 2 0 The merchant shipping is con- Known sidered to be enough for the transport fact,, of S divisionso

There are some 800 fishing cutters Norwegian available in Norway and easily hidden in and innumerable fiords, while reports of secret the requisitioning and arming of sources. Norwegian craft of all types continue to be received. 4c There are 250-500 bomber Secret aircraft based in Norway 0 Report. 5 0 On 29th June there remained Reconnaisone 8" cruiser and one unidentified sance. warship (not a battle-cruiser) at Trondheinio GERMANY, THE BALTIC PORTS AND DENMARK. 6 0 Recent reinforcement of troops Secret in DENMARKo sources.7. The majority-of the units of the Secret German air force will not have sources, completed their refitting before 15th July 0 8 0 Troops-carrying aircraft were Secretrecent! - withdrawn from training sources,schools to first line units9 0 Aerial photographs on 50th June Reconnaisindicated that special rafts had been sance. built at Keil end were being loaded on to small vessels, possibly of trawler type. Exa nature and Intended use of the raft still unknown.

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Reliability.Bo 2 .

Bo 3s

Be 2 .

Bo 3 e

-Ao X o

A. 1

Evidence, 1J 0 Reports indicate the transport of m:tor boats from Italy and Austria to &ermany 0 lib It is reported that large scale landing exercises have recently been practised at Memel In the Baltic NETHERLANDS AND FRENCH COAST12o Reports have been received of increase of German infantry in Holland and of the move of two parachute regiments and ail'"units from Austria and from Berlin area to Belgium^ 13o Special assault detachments are being formed from reconnaissance units which did well on the Western front,. 14 0 The German air force in this area is in process of being reorganised and regrouped and this process is nearing compiletion0 Dive bombers are being concentrated in Belgium and N,E. Franceo 15o A standing fighter patrol over the Calais area indicates some acticivityto be concealed, 16 0 Barge traffic is abnormal in amount and in routes 0 This may represent the provision of supplies fo: the armies of occupation or for an invasion 0 GENERAL. 17. Information from a most reliable source is to the effect that the Germans will hold a parade of their armed forces in PARIS some time after 10th Jul y 0

Source. Secret sources* Neutral master. Stockholm

Secret sources.

Secret sources.

Secret sources,

Known fact. Air reoonnaissance.

Secret sources,

Nojbe . A - E indicates reliability of source 1 : 5 indicates probability of report.

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