INCCA Initial 4x4 Assessment Report:
Agriculture
S. Naresh Kumar*, P.K. Aggarwal,
R.C Upadhyay, E. Vivekanandan, R.M. Bhagat and others
*Division of Environmental Sciences
Indian Agricultural Research Institute
New Delhi-110012, India
Presentation at INCCA meeting
16th November, 2010
Outline • Introduction
• Methodology
• Assessments
– Western Ghats
– Costal region
– NE Region
– Himalayan region
– Dairy sector
• Assumptions and limitations
• Conclusions
• Future thrust
• Ecologically and economically important areas :
WG, Coastal areas, NE and Himalayan region
• Agriculture in these areas is highly diverse and
important for sustainable livelihood of the local
population
• High value crops (temperate fruits; spices, tea,
coffee; fisheries)
• This is the first time study on impact of climate
change on agriculture in these ecologically sensitive
regions
Methodology-
Controlled environment facilities used for
climate change studies at IARI
FACE, TGT, OTC
Deriving genetic coefficients
Methodology- Baseline yields
Genotype
coefficients
CO2
369
Methodology- Scenario yields
Genotype
coefficients
PRECIS A1 B2030 scenario data
Temperature (max, min) and rainfall
CO2
In 2030 scenario
Western Ghats
Agriculture in WG
– Large estates (tea, coffee and rubber)
– Other plantations and spices which are generally grown
as inter crops
– Annual crops based farming consisting of mainly paddy,
vegetables, pulses, tuber crops and millets
– Home-stead faming: one of the key features of this area,
where-in a large number of species (annuals and
perennials) are included
Rice, sorghum, maize, millets, coconut
Tea, coffee, cashew, rubber, spices
Local varieties, low inputs
Soil erosion, high rainfall
Projected impacts (PRECIS A1B 2030)
Irrigated rice rainfed sorghum
rainfed maize coconut
Projected impacts (PRECIS A1B 2030)
Reasoning change in cropping
pattern-Farmers’ perception
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Water
scarcity
Irrigation Increased
day temp.
Decreased
day temp.
Increased
night temp.
Decreased
night temp
Low rainfall Change in
raining
period
High wind
Input related constraints Climate/ weather related constraints
Fa
rme
rs (%
)0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Price of
produce
Cost of
cultivation
Fuel wood Yield Demand Preferance
to
seasonal
crops
Preferance
to
perennial
crops
Socio-economic constraints/ reasons
Farm
ers
(%)
Tapioca, Rice, Lemon grass Pepper, coconut, coffee, arecanut, ginger
Coastal DistrictsAgriculture in coastal districts
– Multi- dimentional, wide agro-biodiversity
– Varies from sustenance agriculture to commercial agriculture
– Annual crops
– Plantations
– Fisheries/ aqua culture
Rice, ground nut, coconut , cashew
Marine fish and shrimps
Sea level rise, salt water intrusion
High temperatures, heavy winds, cyclones, floods (east coast)
Irrigated rice Irrigated maize
Projected impacts (PRECIS A1B 2030)
Coconut
Projected impacts (PRECIS A1B 2030)
Marine fisheries- past trends –Oil sardine
0.1% - 1%
1% - 10%
10 % - 25%
25% - 50%
>50%
LONGITUDE(°E]
LATITUDE(°N)
1961-1976 1977-1986
1987-1996 1997-2006
Source: Vivekanandan et al., 2009
Possible responses of marine fishes to climate change
Extension of distributional boundary of small pelagics;
Extension of depth of occurrence –Indian mackerel; and
Phenological changes.
Change in spawning season of threadfin breams (Nemipterus japonicus and
N. mesoprion) off Chennai
Nemipterus japonicus: Change in spawning season off
Chennai
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980
1982
1984
1986
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Year
Sp
aw
ners
(%
)
October - March
April - September
N. mesoprion : Change in spawning season off Chennai
0
20
40
60
80
100
1983
1985
1987
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Year
Sp
aw
ne
rs (
%) October-March
April-September
(Source: Vivekanandan and Rajagopalan, 2009)
The NE RegionAgriculture in NE region
– Rich biodiversity of agricultural crops (rice, tea, pulses)
– Rice, mustard
– Tea, jute, cotton, potato, sugarcane
– Agricultural practices
– Settled farming practice in plains, valleys, foothills and terrace slopes
– Shifting (Jhum) cultivation on hill slopes
– Prone to floods and soil erosion
– Home-stead faming
Rainfed rice Mustard
Projected impacts (PRECIS A1B 2030)
Wheat Potato
Himalayan region
Agriculture in Himalayan region
– Cereal-based production system (rice, wheat, maize, millets)
– Horticulture and/or agri-horti-based production system
(temperate fruits)
– High value horticulture (vegetables, mushroom, floriculture)
– Agri-horti-silvi-pastoral based production system
– Livestock-based production system
– Soil erosion, temperature rise, climatic extremes
Shift in apple production zone to higher altitudes in
Himachal Pradesh
Bhagat et al., 2009
Livestock productivity- Projections for 2030
Temperature-Humidity Index (THI) based assessment
• Himalayan region
• Projected to increase in THI in many parts of Himalayan region between
March-September with a maximum rise between April- July.
• Thermal discomfort is likely to increase with THI > 80
• North Eastern region
• Thermal discomfort is likely to increase between April-October months
with THI > 80
• Western ghats
• The THI is likely to increase in September-April months. Heat stress days
per annum are likely to increase with THI > 80.
• Coastal region
• The Coastal regions are likely to remain affected throughout the year in
2030 scenario with THI > 80.
The THI load
Assumptions and limitations of the study
• Area under crops in future is assumed to be similar to that in baseline
• Pest and disease incidence –similar to baseline period
• Future inter- annual
climatic variability and rainfall distribution is assumed to be similar as that
existed in baseline period
• Lack of representative farm level data
• The uncertainties of climate change scenarios particularly with reference
to rainfall
• Non consideration of socio-economic issues
Conclusions
• Climate change is projected to affect the yields of cereal crops such as rice, wheat, maize and sorghum in these ecologically sensitive areas if current management practices are followed
• The temperature humidity stress on livestock is projected to increase, warranting better shelter management
• Fish distribution may further extend along the Indian coast
Future thrust
Integrated impact and adaptation
assessment including all sectors of
agriculture
Developing specific adaptation strategies for
climatic risk
Assessment on Himalayan region