Munich, November 5th, 2013

4 WAYS HOW FRACKING IS CHANGING THE WORLDTechnology, Markets, and the Pop-Discourse around Fracking

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Our methodology at a glance: From Megatrends to a multitude of FUTURES

Empirical data, Previous development

Discontinuity, Wild Card

Visions, utopia, future concepts Mega-Trends,

Technology-Trends, Society-Trends Consumer-Trends Scenario A

Scenario B

Scenario C

Scenario B‘

Scenario D

FuturePresentPast

What’s next?

“If a society changes the way it communicates (socialmedia) and changes the way it uses energy, we have a big change!” (Jeremy Rifkin)

Megatrends: The Big Drivers of Change (Range about 30-50 years)

1. Sustainability (climate change)2. Powershift (Renewables))3. Ressources (Water, Metals, Cereals) 4. Urbanization5. Global Uprising (multipolare world)6. Ageing Society 7. Health8. New Work 9. Digitalization 10. Mobility11. Individualization12. (digital) Learning 13. Social Media 14. Family 2.015. Decentralized Consumerism: Transumerism

Megatrends are changing Business, Markets and our personal lifes – in a time span that lies between 30 and 50 years.

Markets – Technology – Sustainability1. Markets are never innocent. 2. Technology is adapted to serve certain goals and interests – hidden or transparent agendas. 3. Technology is always used in order to solve problems.4. In 21. century markets have to consider sustain-ability requirements.5. Technology could be the driver that sustain-ability pays off.

Who is exploring Natural Gas, who is importing natural gas?

• USA overtook Russia in the last three years• Germany one of the greatest importers: Gazprom

Unconventional Gas/Fracking is changing the world (economy)

• Shale-Gas-Boom in the USA.• Turns USA from a Gas- and Oil-Importer to a Exporter

of Energy.• USA as the new MiddleEast, the new sheikhs• Controversial discussions, if Germany should start to

explore Shale Gas

Fracking/Shale Gas is nothing new, neither in Northamerica nor in Europa, especially not in Germany.

Fracking is used in Germany since the 1960s to stimulate natural gas plants.

Fracking with the “Gasbuggy”, 1967: civil use of atomic bombs

• Background: First Signals of an energy crisis.• 10. December 1967 Using an Atombomb deep

in the earth for hydraulic fracturing.• Gas turned out to be radioactive.• Location: New Mexico, to explore. • Natural Gas.

Why we are battling with Fracking/Shale Gas Energy consumption India and China In milliards of tons oil equivalent

Fracking is under deep scrutiny, because it challenges:• Our shift to renewables.• Concept of green economy.• Destroys environment. • Imperils our livelihood: Nature and Homes.

Definition: Fracking means: Exploring unconventional natural gas…

There are obvious risks:

• Fracking can cause methane leaks from inadequately encased wellbores.

• Leading to the contamination of groundwater and aquifers.

• Natural Gas is fossile energy – but „we“ wanted to start the era of post-fossile energy.

• Fracking is not a state-of-the-art-technology compared to regenerative energy: Wind, Photovoltaic, Biogas.

Protest is pop again: Mick and Bianca Jagger, Yoko Ono and Sean Lennon and other artists fighting against fracking

http://artistsagainstfracking.com/dont-frack-my-mother/

But there are good reasons for greens to support fracking.

• Natural gas is cleaner than fuels such as coal.• America’s carbon emissions fell by 450m tons in the

five years to 2012, partly because coal was swapped for the gas made available by fracking.

• In Europe, where expensive gas has led to greater reliance on coal-fired power stations, emissions have not fallen by much.

• Fracking can be done safely - banning it seems like an overreaction.

Right now we have an expectation-crisis What most of the people in the western world expect:

• Radical shift to renewables.• Regenerative production of energy.• 100% renewables in 2050.

What hurts at moment:

We made 2 steps ahead. Now we have to go one step back.

Welcome in the midst of a moral discussion!

The real Problem is, fracking has baffled our green agenda

Dealing with the future of energy in 21. century means: dealing with paradoxal constellations:

• We want 100% renewables – but we have to deal with bridging technologies.

• We need a big transformation – but we want to stick to transformation-concepts of the early 2000s.

• We need to cope with the new global middleclass – but we want no damage to nature.

Conclusions

1. Fracking has changed the US-american economy – in a few months.

• Cheap energy has ceased US-recession.• Coincides with the presumptive new industrial boom.• Made USA to one of the best industrial sides of the

world again.• Big companies (BASF, Siemens) building new plants in

USA• Also a US-specific exception: Study of Citibank has

shown that natural gas could be used only for 1/3 to generate power. And a smart combination with solar power will prove the inefficiency of coal plants.

Special Situation in the USA • Shale beds now produce a quarter of the country’s natural gas, up

from only 1% in 2000.• By last year the price of gas in America had fallen to about a

quarter of that in Europe and a sixth of that in Asia, though it has since risen.

• A lot is at stake: worldwide production of natural gas is forecast to grow by 50% by 2035, with shale and other “unconventional” sources accounting for two thirds of the growth.

• MIT found that only a handful of some 20,000 wells drilled in the previous decade had caused contamination

2. Fracking re-balances the distribution of power, not only in terms of energy sourcing

• What will China do? Still no reliable data! • USA as the new Sheikhs? What about the fragile

Middle East?• Probably the fossile energy Shale Gas could

pave the way to a post-oil-economy in the US?

Climbing up the bandwagon

• Some of the world’s largest fracking-service providers have been working on ways to offer more environmentally friendly fluids.

• Halliburton, the world’s largest fracking company, now offers “CleanStim”, which uses food-safe ingredients to stifle the growth of subterranean bacteria that can form a thick slime and impede oil and gas flow.

• Halliburton has also developed a process using ultraviolet light to kill bacteria in the fracking fluid, pairing the technology with a recycling process called “CleanWave” that uses an electrical charge to separate contaminants and clean the water.

• Baker Hughes, the world’s third-largest provider of fracking services, offers a fluid called “VaporFrac” that replaces almost all of the water used in fracking with nitrogen- based foam.

Climbing up the bandwagon

General Electric invests 15 Mia.US-Dollar in technology that reduces costs of water to 50% and which is more energyefficient and reduces the risk of contamination of groundwater.

Vision 2040 of GE: Energy Infrastructures

4. Fracking/Natural Gas in Europe/Germany will remain in the position of a bridge-technology

• The Fracking-Provocation has shown that we have to readjust our expectations towards the “Energiewende”

• There is no monolithic roadmap for the Energiewende

• Still no reliable Data for most of the european countries

Vielen Dank!

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