48th Omnibus Poll Results - Spring 2011

8/6/2019 48th Omnibus Poll Results - Spring 2011

1/23

48 TH OMNIBUS POLL

Five Milk Street, Portland, Maine www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com


2/23

Back round2

Pan Atlantic SMS Group is a Maine based, independent marketing research and marketing consulting firm and is currently in its 26 th year of successful operation.

th

U P

policy, economic and business issues of interest to Maine citizens. Because we have conducted this poll on a frequent basis over a long time period (since 1996), we are in a unique position to provide reliable benchmarking on a range of important issues.

M S G R

Media use of the information contained in the Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll must identify the source of information. The following report details the results of proprietary questions sponsored by MaineToday Media, Inc. The results of these (MTM) questions were published in the Maine Sunday Telegram on Sunday, May 8 th . These results are being A

N T I C

re ease n t e pu c nterest. n repro uc ng t ese resu ts, p ease cre t a ne o ayMedia, Inc. as the sponsor of the poll questions.

For further information, please contact Patrick Murphy, President of Pan Atlantic SMS Group, A N A T L

at (207) 871 8622 or by email at [email protected] .

Maines Best Pollster 2008


3/23

Methodolo3

The 48th

Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

was conducted between April 25th

and May 2nd

2011. This independent survey data is being released to the Maine media in the public interest. U P

A randomly selected, stratified statewide sample of 401 Maine voters was interviewed by telephone. Each Congressional District is represented by approximately half of the sample. The survey was administered only to those who fulfilled the following criteria:

M S G R

Registered Maine voter

Voted in the Maines November 2010 elections

Do not, nor does anyone in their household, work for a market research, advertising or media firm.

A N T I C

This independent poll was conducted by telephone, at our in house interviewing center, by Pan Atlantics team of experienced interviewers. No outside interviewer sources were used. Survey results were weighted to ensure that the poll results are representative of the various demographic

A N A T L

.



4/23

Methodolo4

It should be noted that figures may not always equal 100.0 percent due to the rounding of decimals.

U P

The sample was stratified based on the 2010 U.S. Census of Population and Housing data. The sample size has statistical significance of + 4.9 percent at the 95 percent

confidence

level.

This

means

that

if

the

survey

were

to

be

repeated,

95

times

out

of

100 the results would reflect the results of this survey within the + 4.9 percent margin M S G R

of error.

The results are broken out by various demographic subsamples, including Congressional A N T I C

str ct, po t ca party a at on, age an gen er. e marg ns o error or spec c su samples are higher than the + 4.9 percent margin of error for the entire sample.

A N A T L

, , opinions at a singular point in time.



5/23

Five Milk Street, Portland, Maine. .

207.871.8622

The following poll questions regarding Maines political climate were comm ss one an pa or y a ne o ay e a, nc. e resu ts were originally published in The Maine Sunday Telegram on May, 8 th 2011.

these results, please credit MaineToday Media, Inc. as the sponsor of the poll questions.


6/23

I am going to ask you some questions regarding public policy issues in Maine. First, I would like you to tell me if you have a very favorable , somewhat favorable, somewhat

60% 60%

6

Overall Favorability Level of Governor LePage56.1%

un avora e , or very un avora e op n on o overnor Pau LePage.[Options were rotated; N=401]

Ver

40%

50%Somewhat

unfavorable16.7%

41.3%

Ver

40%

50%Somewhat

unfavorable16.6%

38.9%

47.5%

Favorable14.5%

SomewhatFavorable

20%

30%Very

unfavorable

39.4%

Favorable20.2%

SomewhatFavorable

11.2%

20%

30%

Veryunfavorable

30.9%

Favorable overall, Apr. 2011

.

0%

Unfavorable overall, Apr 2011

Favorable overall, Oct 3rd 2010

21.2%

Don't know / Unfamiliar Oct. 3rd

Dont know / Unfamiliar Apr.

.

0%

Unfavorable overall, Oct. 3rd 2010

20102011

Governor LePages unfavorability levels have risen to 56.1% (somewhat and very unfavorable) from the 47.5% level recorded in the Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll conducted prior to his election as Governor of Maine. His

. . . not know or are not familiar with Governor LePage.



7/23

I am going to ask you some questions regarding public policy issues in Maine. First, I would like you to tell me if you have a very favorable , somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable,

7

Governor LePages Favorability Levels, by Political Party Affiliation

[Options were rotated; N=401]

63.4% 15.7% 9.7% 8.2%3.0%Democrat

43.5%

8.7%

19.8%

15.1%

19.1%

46.8%

7.6%

27.0%

9.9%

2.4%

Independent

Republican

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very unfavorable Somewhat unfavorable Somewhat favorable Very favorable Don't know / Not familiar

While 73.8% of Republicans interviewed indicated that they have an overall favorable opinion of Governor LePage, only 26.7% of Independents and 17.9% of Democrats report having a favorable opinion of him.

As such, 79.1% of Democrats, 63.3% of Independents, and 23.8% of Republicans reported having an unfavorable opinion of Governor LePage.



8/23

I am going to ask you some questions regarding public policy issues in Maine. First, I would like you to tell me if you have a very favorable , somewhat favorable, somewhat

8

Governor LePages Favorability Levels, by Congressional District and Gender

, .


32.3%

46.5%

18.4%

15.0%

28.9%

20.0%

15.4%

13.5%

5.0%

5.0%

Congressional District 2


47.6% 16.5% 19.9% 11.2% 4.9%Females

30.8% 16.9% 29.2% 17.9% 5.1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Males

Ver unfavorable Somewhat unfavorable Somewhat favorable Ver favorable Don't know / Not familiar

Governor LePages favorability level is higher with voters in Congressional District 2 (44.3%) than in CD1 (33.5%) an eleven point margin.

Furthermore, males reported having a higher opinion of Governor LePage than their female counterparts (47.1% vs. 31.1% somewhat or very favorable, respectively).



9/23

Governor Paul LePage has been in office since January of this year. How would you rate his

erformance to date? Would ou sa his erformance has been:

9

60%Performance Level of Governor LePage Respondents Reporting an Average

Performance Level by Governor LePage, by


Poor,23.2%40%

50%21.9%

.

20.7%

45.5%

29.5%22.8%

20%

30%

40%50%

Political Affiliation (n=88)

Veryoor

20%

30%

Good

xce ent7.0% 2.2%

0%

10%

31.7%

0%

10%

Very Poor / Poor Average

13.7%

Good / Excellent

2.5%

Dont know

While 54.9% of those surveyed rated Governor LePages performance to date as being poor or very poor, 20.7% of respondents indicated that his performance has been good or excellent a margin of 34.2 percentage points.

One in five of those surveyed (21.9%) indicated that Governor LePages performance so far has been average.



10/23



10

Governor LePages Performance Levels, by Political Party Affiliation


50.7% 28.4% 14.9%3.7%

1.5%

3.2%

0.7%Democrat

35.1%

.

27.5%

.

19.8%

.

8.4%

.

5.3%

.

3.8%

.

Independent

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very poor Poor Average Good Excellent Don't know

Five percent of responding Democrats (5.2%) indicated that Governor LePages performance to date has been good or excellent combined. In contrast, 43.7% of Republicans surveyed reported that they believe Governor LePage is performing at a good or excellent level.

. a good or excellent level.



11/23



11

Governor LePa es Performance Levels, b Con ressional District and Gender


49.3%

60.5%

23.9%

20.0%

23.9%

17.5%

3.0%

2.0%

Congressional

CongressionalDistrict 1

63.6% 19.9% 15.0% 1.5%Female

45.6% 24.1% 26.7% 3.6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Male

Very poor / Poor Average Good / Excellent Dont know

Females (63.6%) and respondents residing in Congressional District 1 (60.5%) are more likely than their counterparts to report that Governor LePage is performing at a poor or very poor level (males : 45.6% and CD2 : 49.3%).



12/23

12

Paul LePage was a candidate in the November 2010 Maine Gubernatorial elections. In the November 2010 elections for Maine Governor, did you vote for LePage?

If today were election day, would you vote for Paul LePage again?

[Asked only of respondents who voted for Governor LePage in the 2010 Gubernatorial election n=142.

62.1%60%

70%80% 76.1%

60%

70%80%

35.4%

30%

40%

50%

30%

40%

50%

2.5%0%

10%

No Yes Refused / Don't

11.3% 12.7%

0%

10%

20%

No Yes Refused / Don't know

Of the 142 respondents in the sample who reported voting for Governor LePage in the November 2010 elections, more than three quarters (76.1%) indicated that if today were Election Day, they would vote for him again.

Republicans who voted for Governor LePage in November 2010 are more likely to say they would vote for him again (82.4%) than are Democrats (62.5%) and Independents (65.6%).



13/23

13

Would NOT or Dont Know if They Would Vote for Governor LePage Again, by Political Party

o ay were e ec on ay, wou you vo e for Paul LePage again?

[Asked only of respondents who voted for LePage in the 2010 Gubernatorial election, n=142.]

76.1%

60%

70%

80% 47.1%

35.3%35%

40%45%

50%

20%

30%

40%

50%

17.6%

15%

20%

25%

30%

11.3% .

0%

10%

Yes No Refused / Don'tknow

0%

5%

10%

Republican Independent Democrat

Of the 34 respondents (out of 142) who indicated that they would NOT or do not know if they would vote for Governor LePage again if today were Election Day, 47.1% are Republican, 35.3% are Democrats, and 17.6% are

.



14/23

Since Governor Paul LePage has taken office, do you think that he has moved the State of

Maine forward backward or is it in the same lace?14

Females 44.7%


35.2%Males (23.6%) and

Republicans (36.5%) were more likely to report that

Democrats (63.4%),

Independents (45.0%), and those over the age of 55

Forward,17.5%

,39.7%

Dont know /

overnor e agehas moved the State of Maine

FORWARD

since

taking office in

. were more likely to report that Governor LePage

has

moved

the

State of Maine oo soon o e

7.7%January 2011. BACKWARD since taking office in January 2011.

Forty percent of those surveyed (39.7%) indicated that they believe Governor LePage has moved the State of Maine backward since taking office, while 17.5% indicated that Governor LePage has moved the state forward.

. Governor LePage took office.



15/23



Direction of the State of Maine, by Political Party Affiliation


63.4% 25.4% 6.0% 5.2%Democrat

9.5% 43.7% 36.5% 10.3%

Inde endent

Republican

. . . .

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Backward Same place Forward Don't know Too soon to tell

While 36.5% of Republicans indicate that they believe the state of Maine has moved forward since Governor LePage has taken office, only 10.7% of Independents and 6.0% of Democrats report having this same belief.



16/23



Direction of the State of Maine, By Gender and Congressional District


34.4%

44.7%

34.4%

35.9%

23.6%

11.7%

7.7%

7.8%

Male

Female

44.0% 33.5% 14.0% 8.5%

Con ressional District 2


. . . .

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Backward Same place Forward Don't know / Too soon to tell

Females (44.7%) are more likely than males (34.4%) to report that the State of Maine has moved backward since Governor LePage has taken office.

While differences between Maines two Congressional Districts in terms of the percent of respondents reporting that Governor LePage has moved the State of Maine forward or backward approaches significance, it is not statistically relevant within the margin of error for this sample.



17/23


18/23

Governor Paul LePage has drawn a lot of national media attention to himself and to the

State

of

Maine.

Overall,

do

you

think

that

this

attention has

been

good

or

bad

for

the

state?18

Media Attention Favorability, by Political Party Affiliation


87.3% 6.0% 6.7%Democrat

76.3%

45.2%

16.8%

34.9%

6.9%

19.8%

Independent

Republican

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bad for Maine Good for Maine Dont know

Republican respondents (34.9%) are more likely to indicate that the national media attention has overall, been good for the State of Maine, than their Democratic or Independent counterparts (6.0% and 16.8%, respectively).



19/23

Governor Paul LePage has drawn a lot of national media attention to himself and to the

State

of

Maine.

Overall,

do

you

think

that

this

attention has

been

good

or

bad

for

the

state?19

Media Attention Favorability, by Congressional District and Gender


65.2%

74.5%

20.9%

17.0%

13.9%

8.5%



75.7% 14.6% 9.7%Female

63.6% 23.6% 12.8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Male

Bad for Maine Good for Mane Don't know

While a similar percentage of respondents from both Congressional Districts reported that this attention has been good for the state of Maine (CD1: 17.0%, CD2: 20.9%), respondents from CD1 (74.5%) were more likely to report that the attention has been bad for the state (CD2: 65.2%). The dont know and too soon to tell percentage was greater in CD2 than in CD1 (13.9% vs. 8.5%, respectively)

Females (75.7%) are more likely than males (63.6%) to report that the national media attention drawn by Governor LePage to Maine has been bad for the state.



20/23

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Paul LePages decision to remove the mural from

the

State

of

Maine

Department

of

Labor

Office?

Is

that

strongly,

or

somewhat?20

70% Approval Level for Mural Removal Decision


.

20.9%

Somewhatdisaproove,16.2%

50%

60%

Stronglydisapprove,

30%

40% Stronglyapprove,

9.7%

6.0%..

0%

10%

20%Somewhatapprove,11.2%

Dont knowNot aware of this issueOverall, Disapprove Overall, Approve

By a margin of more than three to one (65.1%), respondents indicated that they strongly (48.9%) or somewhat .

Labor Office, while only 20.9% approve a margin of 44.2 percentage points.



21/23


the

State

of

Maine

Department

of

Labor

Office?

Is

that

strongly,

or

somewhat?21

Approval Level for Mural Removal, by Political Party Affiliation


20.6%

70.9%

15.1%

17.9%

25.4%

.

19.0%

1.5%

19.8%

6.7%

Re ublican

Democrat

53.4%

.

16.0%

.

6.1%

.

9.2%

.

15.3%

.

Independent

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strongly disapprove Somewhat disapprove Somewhat approve Strongly approve Dont know / Not aware of issue

Less than half of Republicans (44.4%), 15.3% of Independents, and 4.5% of Democrats approve (somewhat and strongly approve, combined) of Governor LePages decision to remove the mural from the State of Maine Department of Labor Office.

Conversely, 35.7% of Republicans, 69.5% of Independents and 88.8% of Democrats disapprove of this decision (strongly and somewhat disapprove, combined).



22/23


the

State

of

Maine

Department

of

Labor

Office?

Is

that

strongly,

or

somewhat?22

A roval Level for Mural Removal, b Gender


55.3% 18.4% 10.7% 4.9% 10.7%Female

42.1% 13.8% 11.8% 14.9% 17.4%Male

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strongly disapprove Somewhat disapprove Somewhat approve Strongly approve Don't know / Not aware of issue

Females are much more likely than males to disapprove overall (strongly and somewhat disapprove combined) than their male counter arts (73.8% vs. 55.9%, res ectivel ).



23/23

Five Milk Street, Portland, Maine. .

207.871.8622

T ese po quest ons regar ng Ma ne s po t ca c mate were commissioned and paid for by MaineToday Media, Inc.

, Media, Inc. as the sponsor.

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48th Omnibus Poll Results - Spring 2011

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