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4K: Just Add Content?
Paul Gray Director TV Electronics & Europe Research
DisplaySearch
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NPD DisplaySearch Analyses the Entire Display Supply Chain
Presentation Name in Insert>Header and Footer>Footer 2
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What Drives 4K?
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Global TV Shipments Falling, How to Renew Growth?
4 Briefing October 2013. Confidential
Source: DisplaySearch Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report (2013-2016 forecast)
2% 1%
5% 4%
2%
18%
0%
-6%
-2%
3% 4%
5%
3%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Rear Proj.OLEDPDPLCDCRT
Ship
ment,
millions
LCD TV: -1% Y/Y
Gro
wth
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Smartphones and Tablets Dominate CE Shipments
Smartphones & tablets drive IT and CE today.
Display resolution increasing rapidly, key benefit.
Evolving at Moore’s Law speed
AND a rapid replacement cycle.
450ppi displays already
5.5” 1920x1080
3840x2160 tablets appearing
Mobile devices already getting HEVC and 4K decoding.
Mobile devices may be faster than TV! -
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
Smartphone
Tablet
Notebook PC
Connected TV
Ship
ment,
Millions
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Smart TV Report
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Heavy 4K2K Promotion in China
China TV Retailer Layout Confusion : 4K = High Resolution
Not 4K, but under
4K banner
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4K for TV Brands
Different strategies by region:
China 4K just another feature.
Consumers less concerned about content (same as 3D)
For export, 4K proves Chinese brands have advanced technology.
Global Brands 4K is a next (3rd) generation of TV
Short-term, fight OLED (if not Samsung or LGE!)
Build a full UHD content chain
Partnership with broadcast / content
TV without content is meaningless
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TV Brands’ 4K2K Plan: 2013-2014
Small screen sizes (below 50”) only for China at present.
Large screens necessary for normal (2m+) viewing distances.
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Panel Makers Want to Make 27 Million 4K in 2014: Is It Feasible?
27 million 4K TV panels needs entry price below $750 ex-tax.
Entry size needs to be 39” to achieve the volume.
Volumes bought at the cost of massive price erosion on existing products.
4K displays at 10% premium by end 2014.
-
10
20
30
40
50
Ship
ment,
Millions
27 million unlikely, but pressure to build 4K TV sets!
Supplier 2013 2014 Products AUO 0.3 5 42",50",55",65"
BOE 0 1 49", 55"
ChinaStar 0.4 2 49", 55"
Innolux 1.8 12 39",40",42",50",58",65",85"
LG Display 0.1 2 49", 55", 65", 84"
Samsung 0.1 4 40",48", 55", 65", 85", 98"
Sharp 0.02 0.5 60", 70"
Total 2.72 26.5
Global TV Market, 2013
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4K / UHD Standardization
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4K Broadcast Status Country Provider Transmission 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Remarks
NHK trial 8K trial8K
serviceTest shooting material with BBC
NTT West IPTV trialService planned, launch date not
announced.
Skyper JSAT Satellite trial4K
serviceCommercial launch with World Cup, 2014
KBS Terrestrial trial DVB-T2, MPEG-4 and HEVC
CJ Hellovision Cable trial MPEG-4 and HEVC
KT Skylife Satellite trial4K
serviceDVB-S2, MPEG-4 trial, HEVC commercial
Netflix IPTVAims to be first to launch service,
possibly late 2013
DirecTV Satellite4K
servicePlan to run Ku band in 4K2K from 2016
Comcast CableWorking on 4K service.
'Wait and see' approach
LatAm Hispasat Satellite trial
MEA, AP,
AustraliaMeasat Satellite
demo
channel
Measat-3, 91.5 degrees E.
Some coverage in Eastern Europe
Astra Satellitedemo
channelAstra 19.2 degrees E, HEVC
Eutelsat Satellitedemo
channel
Eutelsat 10A. HEVC and MPEG-4.
Co-promotion with SamsungKabel
DeutschlandCable demo DVB-C2 demonstration with HEVC
Sky.de Satellite trial Working on 4K service, using Astra 19.2E
Italy Sky Italia Satellite trial Working on 4K service, using Astra 19.2E
BBC trialTest shooting material with NHK, no
broadcast plans announcedBritish
TelecomIPTV trial
Test shooting material with satellite link
from Intelsat
Sky Satellite trialWorking on 4K service, using Astra 19.2E
Test coverage on Sept 2 2013
Internet Sony Download FMP-X1 media player
UK
Japan
Korea
USA
Europe
Germany
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4K Content Experiments
Sky Deutschland experimenting with new ways to use 4K.
Use the extra pixels for multi-view.
Main view ‘best seat in the stadium’, extra panes for director’s cut, replays
Action replays without disturbing coverage.
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Higher Frame Rates are Necessary for 4K
Sharp static detail, but need sharp moving images.
Slow frame rates mean blur. Judder also breaks the feeling of realism.
Note the blurred and poorly rendered buildings in this 4K playback.
Image from Skydive Dubai sequence at 24fps, showing poor handling of fast-moving background. Photo taken at 1/125s.
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Current Broadcaster Thinking
Broadcasters want better pixels, not just more pixels
As a result, several stages are likely:
High dynamic range is very new, not part of BT.2020.
1920x1080 with 100/120Hz scalable between UHD-0 and UHD-1.
1080p 100/120Hz gives big improvement in sharpness without higher resolution. Allows backwards compatibility between UHD-0 and UHD-1 receivers.
UHD-0 UHD-1 UHD-2
Time 2014-2015 2017-2018? 2020+?
Resolution 3840x2160 1920x1080 3840x2160 7680x4320
Frame Rate 50 / 60p 100 / 120p 100 / 120p 100 / 120p
Bit depth 10 (display; some services 8 bit?)
10 10/12/14
Colour Gamut BT.709 BT.2020 (subset)
BT.2020 (more)
Dynamic Range Current High High
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Conclusion
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Japan North America Europe China
35"-39"
40"-44"
45"-49"
50"-54"
55"-59"
60"+
Penetration
Forecast
China will dominate 4K shipments, products different to other regions: smaller screens
lower price premium
lower performance.
Other regions have larger screens more timed to content.
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Japan North America Western EuropeEastern Europe China Asia PacificLatin America MEA
4K Size Mix and Penetration forecast, 2017
4K TV Shipment Forecast
Thousands
Share
of Ship
ments
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4K / UHD Will Be More Than Just TV Sets!
Content Worth Watching
Attractive Hardware
Trusted and Effective Delivery
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