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5. The Structuring of Beliefs. Are Many Opinions Random? (re Converse)
GV917
Political Knowledge
One way of examining if people reply to questions at random because they are ill-informed is to ask them knowledge questions
Political Knowledge questions indicate the extent to which people are actually ignorant about politics – and hence may have non-attitudes
A battery of Knowledge questions were asked in the 2001 British Election Study
Knowledge Questions in the 2001 British Election Study
True False Don’t Know
Polling Stations close at 10pm on Election Day
82 7 10
The Conservative Party policy is that Britain should never join the Euro
32 46 22
The Liberal Democrats favour a system of proportional representation for Westminster Elections
60 5 35
The minimum voting age in Britain is 16 10 85 5
Unemployment has fallen since Labour was elected in 1997
77 13 10
Only taxpayers are allowed to vote in general elections
3 94 3
Knowledge Questions in the 2001 BES On average 74 per cent of respondents gave
the correct answer They were much more likely to give the
correct answers about electoral arrangements (87%) than about party policies (61%)
However, there is not much evidence of complete ignorance of politics in the data – random guessing would produce a Normal Distribution centred on 3 correct answers
The Distribution of Political Knowledge in 2001 (Mean = 4.4)
Political Knowledge, Age and Sex in 2001Age Knowledge Scores
Up to 24 3.9
25-34 4.3
35-44 4.6
45-54 4.7
55-64 4.4
Sex
Male 4.7
Female 4.2
Political Knowledge and Work Status in 2001Work Status Knowledge Scores
In Paid Work 4.6
In Full-time Education 4.2
Unemployed 3.9
Retired 4.4
Looking after the Home 3.9
Political Knowledge and Occupational Status in 2001Occupational Status Knowledge Scores
Professionals and Managers 5.2
White Collar Middle Management 4.9
White Collar Clerical 4.6
Skilled Manual 4.3
Semi-Skilled Manual 4.0
Unskilled Manual 3.8
Political Knowledge and Education in 2001Education Knowledge Scores
Still in School 4.2
15 or younger 4.2
16 4.3
17 4.3
18 4.4
19 or older 5.0
Conclusions
Political Knowledge is not that high – with a mean score of 4.4.
On the other hand it is far from being random, since the distribution of scores is skewed heavily to the high end
Some people undoubtedly guessed some of the answers – but only 14 per cent got a score of 3.0 – which is expected if people are guessing
Are Attitudes Stable Over Time?
Attitude Stability over time – the case of British Membership of the Euro in 2001 How Much Do Attitudes to the Euro Change over
Time? This is tricky for most people because it is a complex issue and experts disagree
This became an election issue in 2001 with the Conservatives campaigning on a platform of ‘Save the Pound’
The Liberal Democrats campaigned to join the Euro more or less right away
Labour campaigned on a promise to join if the conditions were right
Attitudes to Joining the Euro just before the General Election of 2001 – pre election survey
aq23 Attitude Towards Joining Euro Currency
173 7.5 7.5 7.5
853 37.1 37.1 44.7
507 22.0 22.1 66.7
624 27.1 27.1 93.9
141 6.1 6.1 100.0
2297 99.8 100.0
5 .2
2303 100.0
1 Definitely join
2 Join if conditions right
3 Out for at least 4/5years
4 Rule out on principle
8 Don't know
Total
Valid
9 RefusedMissing
Total
Frequency Percent Valid PercentCumulative
Percent
Attitudes to Joining the Euro just after the General Election of 2001- post election surveybq35 Attitude Toward Joining Euro Currency
137 5.9 5.9 5.9
824 35.8 35.8 41.7
605 26.3 26.3 68.0
597 25.9 26.0 94.0
138 6.0 6.0 100.0
2301 99.9 100.0
2 .1
2303 100.0
1 Definitely join
2 Join if conditions right
3 Out for at least 4/5years
4 Rule out on principle
8 Don't know
Total
Valid
9 RefusedMissing
Total
Frequency Percent Valid PercentCumulative
Percent
Changes in Attitudes to the Euro during the election of 2001 There were clearly some changes in attitudes
to British membership of the Euro which occurred during the campaign
45 per cent said join immediately or if the conditions are right before the election, and 42 per cent said this after the election
But these are the net figures and hide a lot of gross turnover in opinion
Stability of Attitudes over Time – The Row percentages in a TableAttitude Towards Britain Joining the Euro - Crosstabulation of Pre and Post Election Survey
% within aq23 Attitude Towards Joining Euro Currency
43.9% 39.3% 8.1% 3.5% 5.2% 100.0%
4.7% 63.5% 22.5% 5.8% 3.5% 100.0%
1.6% 25.2% 44.3% 25.6% 3.3% 100.0%
.6% 7.7% 24.9% 61.4% 5.3% 100.0%
5.6% 26.8% 11.3% 21.1% 35.2% 100.0%
5.9% 35.8% 26.2% 26.0% 6.1% 100.0%
1 Definitely join
2 Join if conditions right
3 Out for at least 4/5years
4 Rule out on principle
8 Don't know
aq23 AttitudeTowardsJoining EuroCurrency
Total
1 Definitelyjoin
2 Join ifconditions
right
3 Out forat least
4/5 years4 Rule outon principle 8 Don't know
bq35 Attitude Toward Joining Euro Currency
Total
Findings?
Only 44 per cent of the who supported joining before the election also supported this policy after the election
64 per cent were consistent in saying that Britain should join if the conditions are right
44 per cent were consistent in waiting for 4 to 5 years
61 per cent ruled out membership in principle
The Extent to which people were consistent over time – the total percentages in a table
aq23 Attitude Towards Joining Euro Currency * bq35 Attitude Toward Joining Euro Currency Crosstabulation
% of Total
3.3% 3.0% .6% .3% .4% 7.5%
1.7% 23.6% 8.4% 2.1% 1.3% 37.1%
.3% 5.6% 9.8% 5.7% .7% 22.1%
.2% 2.1% 6.7% 16.6% 1.4% 27.1%
.3% 1.7% .7% 1.3% 2.2% 6.2%
5.9% 35.8% 26.2% 26.0% 6.1% 100.0%
1 Definitely join
2 Join if conditions right
3 Out for at least 4/5years
4 Rule out on principle
8 Don't know
aq23 AttitudeTowardsJoining EuroCurrency
Total
1 Definitelyjoin
2 Join ifconditions
right
3 Out forat least
4/5 years4 Rule outon principle 8 Don't know
bq35 Attitude Toward Joining Euro Currency
Total
Findings?
55 per cent of respondents remained consistent between the two waves of the panel survey – 45 per cent were inconsistent
We see this from the main diagonal of the table
But ‘Definitely Join’ and ‘Join if the conditions are right’ are not that different. Are people really being inconsistent if they move from one of these categories to the other?
How Can this be explained?
One explanation is that there are a lot on non-attitudes and these are the 45 per cent of respondents who change their minds
Another explanation is that there are some non-attitudes, but measurement error accounts for a lot of this. One example, of measurement error is people shifting one category between waves of the survey – they are not responding randomly, but rather probabilistically.
A Recoded Version of the Table
Europre * Europost Crosstabulation
% of Total
35.1% 10.0% 2.7% 47.7%
6.6% 10.9% 6.3% 23.8%
2.5% 7.5% 18.5% 28.5%
44.2% 28.4% 27.4% 100.0%
1.00 Join
2.00 Wait
3.00 Dont Join
Europre
Total
1.00 Join 2.00 Wait3.00
Dont Join
Europost
Total
Probabilistic Responses
In the revised version of the table 65 per cent are consistent rather than 55 per cent
The really inconsistent people are those who move from join to don’t join. These make up only just over 5 per cent of the sample
Some may be answering at random, but others may have genuinely changed their minds in response to the campaign
Conclusions Some people clearly do answer at random, since
switching right across the spectrum is clearly not likely to be a rational decision
However, switching between adjacent categories is not so unlikely. So when measurement error is taken into account the randomizers may not be that large a group
Knowledge of politics is limited, but it is clearly a long way from being zero with people just guessing the answers
In addition ‘useful’ knowledge such as when the polling station closes is quite high. Knowledge of party policies may be less useful and so it is less important to people
An Alternative - Collective Opinions (see Page and Shapiro) They argue that attitudes are neither perfectly
formed or random, but are derived from some underlying values and beliefs
New information will push the individual’s preferences back and forth over time – but this might be the product of uncertainty as much as randomness
Each individual will have a true long-term preference which can be observed by sampling people over time
Collective Opinions (see Page and Shapiro)
If this is true then at any given moment the public as a whole will have real collective attitudes – but it is defined on average
Random deviations will occur away from the average for any one individual – but collectively the public will have a ‘rational’ ie. Meaningful opinion.
This averaging out process results from the law of large numbers
Condorcet ‘Jury’ Theorem
More than two centuries ago Condorcet demonstrated that if a number of individuals tried to answer a factual question and each had a better than 50 % chance of being correct, then a collective decision by majority vote had a much better chance of being correct than a decision by a single person
Suppose an individual has a 60 % chance of being correct (and a 40 % chance of being wrong)
Suppose we add two more individuals to the ‘jury’ What are their chances of being correct by majority
voting?
Condorcet ‘Jury’ TheoremNote that if at least two of them vote for the 0.60 branches, they will come to the right decision. So probability of a correct decision under majority rule = 0.216+0.144+0.144+0.144=0.648 – the probability of the jury being correct has increased by 0.048 when three people are on it compared with only one.
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.216
0.144
0.144
0.096
0.144
0.096
0.096
0.064