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04/18/23 1
Summary of Key Findings
J. Nyoro
Director
Tegemeo Institute
04/18/23 2
Key issues Average age of a Kenyan Farmer is currently about 60 years
Land size is becoming a key factor in influencing agricultural productivity in Kenya. 30% of sample are cultivating less than 1 acre of land
Per capita land cultivated is declining from 0.46 acres in 1997 to 0.39 acres in 2007
Performance of agricultural productivity is mixed with best performers as maize, tea and dairy, poor performers are coffee and sugar ..mixed performance as horticulture
Fertilizer consumption in Kenya has been a success case
Increased diversification to include off-farm income
Declining poverty levels from 56% to 37%
Production and sale of domestic horticulture not keeping up with rising urban population
04/18/23 3
Good Performers (Productivity)
1997 2000 2004 2007
Maize overallBags/acre 6.6 7.2 8.2 9.3
HPMZ 11.5 10.4 13.8 13.3
Tea (kg/acre) 3,931 3,869 4,206 4,507
Dairy (lt/cow/yr) 1,164 1,079 1,298 1,371
Maize (40%), Tea (15%), Dairy (18%)
04/18/23 4
Poor Performers (Productivity)
1997 2000 2004 2007
Coffee 1,459 1,826 1,577 1,285
Sugarcane 22.3 26.1 26.7 23.9
Coffee (12%), Sugarcane (8.4%)
04/18/23 5
Drivers of Productivity Higher rates of seed and fertilizer adoption
High quantities of fertilizer used
Reduce distances to fertilizer and seed stockists from 8.1m to 3.4km and 5.6km to 3.4km
Better marketing arrangements and stable output prices
Improved access to credit 26% to 33%
Access to motorable roads from 1.1km to 0.5km
Better Access to Extension from 5.4km to 4.6km
Increase in crop particularity maize
Good governance of institutions
04/18/23 6
Summary of the Productivity Trends
Increasing MaizeTea
Dairy
DecliningCoffee
Sugarcane
Rising but fluctuating Horticulture (cabbages
Irish potatoes)
04/18/23 7
Fertilizer use trends Increasing fertilizer use from about 200,000 tons in early 1990s to over
450,000 in 2007
Increasing commercial imports with declining donor imports
Limited government participation in input markets
High adoption and application rates in maize and other crops
Decreasing fertilizer marketing margins
Reasons for upsurge of fertilizer use: Stable and predictable input policy Private sector investment 10-11 importers, 500 wholesalers and over
8,000 retailers Expansion of input dealers Greater competition among importers
But 2008 high global prices has raised concerns for fertilizer use
04/18/23 8
Potential for Reducing Fertilizer Prices
Reduce costs of supplying fertilizer to farm gate Port costs at Mombasa Improve rail / road infrastructure
Promote viable farm extension / service provision to raise efficiency of fertilizer use
What about input subsidies?
Modalities of undertaking input subsidies: Targeted input voucher program less likely to undercut
commercial input distribution system Ensure that input subsidies are pro-poor by targeting the poorest
farmers
04/18/23 9
Domestic Horticulture
Production and sales of domestic horticulture is not keeping up with rapidly rising population
Traditional horticulture marketing systems still dominate the marketing systems though other modern systems like supermarkets are gaining popularity
Investment in traditional systems such as wholesale markets will have higher payoff in the short run that that in the modern outlets chains like supermarkets
04/18/23 10
Enterprise Diversification
04/18/23 11
Diversification of Enterprises
General enterprise diversification from largely crops to more mixed business with crops, livestock, and particularly business
Proportion of area allocated to fodder crops has increased thereby raising the important of livestock income as a contributor to household income
Proportion of improved breeds have increased due to better marketing and more stable markets
04/18/23 12
Income, Poverty and Inequality Real income for low income group has increased but that
of the highest income group has declined making the average income stagnate
Poverty levels have reduced from 53.7% to about 37.3%
More people have exited out of the poverty (20%) than has re-entered (5%) with about 30% has remain above the poverty bracket
Inequality has reduced slightly
04/18/23 13
Poverty Dynamics 1997-2007
04/18/23 14
Drivers out Poverty Age and gender: Younger households and male headed households
Higher land sizes and smaller households
Education where primary could be necessary but not sufficient
Engagement in business, salaried activities
Technology adoption
Access to financial services
Linkages to farm institutions such as cooperatives,
Access to better infrastructure (roads, electricity, piped water)
Regional dimension: Central highlands compared to Western lowlands
04/18/23 15
Implications Make farming more attractive to young people
Land consolidation will be a key determined of productivity in future
Agricultural productivity better where there is mutual trust between public and private sector where markets are reliable and prices stable
Price stability a key determinant of productivity
Access to services such as credit, extension is a key driver to productivity
Kenya should not disrupt its long term growth projectory with unsustainable short term interventions
Build better trust between Public and private sectors particularly in fertilizer marketing
04/18/23 16
Implications cont… Put more emphasize on livestock particularly beef
Productivity is necessary but should also encompass quality and to enhance competitiveness
Regional trade particularly in agricultural commodities has great potential in achieving growth
Encourage new opportunities where young people feel attracted such as in dairy and horticulture
Emphasize on public private partnerships to build mutual trusts between operators
Adopt a radical and aggressive approach is policy recommendations