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CHALLENGE 2050L THE RAIL SECTOR VISION

The vision set out in Challenge 2050 is endorsed by the following senior executives within the railsector on behalf of their associations:3 Community of European Railway and Infrastructure Companies (CER) –M. Moretti, Chairman3 European Freight and Logistics Leaders Forum (F&L) – F. Arendt, Chairman3 European Infrastructure Managers (EIM) – G. Malm, Chairman3 European Passengers' Federation (EPF) – T. Garrod, Chair3 European Passenger Train and Traction Operating Lessors’ Association (EPTTOLA) –T. Gilbert, President

3 European Rail Freight Association (ERFA) – F. Coart, Chairman3 European Rail Research Advisory Council (ERRAC) – J. Doppelbauer, Chairman3 European Shippers' Council (ESC) – D. Choumert, Chairman3 International Union of Private Wagon Owners (UIP) – Dr. E. Lehmann, Chairman3 International Association of Public Transport (UITP) –A. Depledge, President UITP European Union Committee

3 International Union of Railways (UIC) – G. Pepy, President, European Region3The Association of the European Rail Industry (UNIFE) – P. Citroën, Director General

Published by: European Passengers' Federation (EPF)Date: February 2013

Rail is vital to the well-being of Europe’s society and the strength of its economy.To maintain and develop this role in the future, the sector needs to meet enor-mous challenges. There is a need to protect the social, economic and environmen-tal fabric. The railway community has developed Challenge 2050, a vision thatidentifies these challenges and makes a commitment to addressing them.

Challenge 2050 is the European rail sector’s shared perception of where the railsystem could be by 2050. The document first gives a brief overview of the rail sec-tor and then sets out the sector’s shared vision. It also identifies the many goalsthat are complementary to the vision and support a rail system that is respon-sive to the needs of Europe’s citizens.

CONTENTS

FOREWORD 21. INTRODUCTION 32. THE SECTOR 43. VISION AND GOALS 5

FOREWORD

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Jointly published by: Community of European Railway and Infrastructure Companies (CER), European Infrastructure Managers (EIM) and International Union of Railways (UIC) Date: February 2013

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Challenge 2050 brings together all aspectsof the business of running the railway sys-tem to deliver outputs that support the

sector’s vision through the short, medium and lon-ger terms right up to 2050. Many outputs arealready in development or identified as prioritiesfor the near future.

Challenge 2050 aims to encourage sector stake-holders to come together and align their positionsand activities tomeet the challenges of the futureand develop rail transport.

As a viewofwhere the European rail sector percei-ves the rail system could be in 2050, the purposeof Challenge 2050 is to orient and guide the rail-way sector, as well as policy makers and otherstakeholders, to enable the innovation and invest-ment on which sustainable mobility in Europe de-pends. The paper takes account of the EuropeanCommission’s 2011 White Paper on Transport,which sets out a vision for the future Europeantransport system and a policy agenda through tothe Year 20501.

We have written this document as if the reader isalready in 2050, looking back at how the rail sec-tor has been transformed over the intervening de-cades. Although Challenge 2050 is not a com-mentary of the rail sector’s position at the time thepaperwaswritten, our perspective has been consi-derably influenced by the rail system as it is todayand it builds on this foundation.

By 2050 the railway has developed from the bestof what there is today - an absolute commitmentto safety, green credentials, expertise in passengerand freight transportation, global leadership in rail-way research, innovation and manufacturing and,above all, its prime position as the provider of Eu-rope’s transportation needs. But the railway of2050 is also a very different railway; one that hasmoved significantly forwards and one that pro-vides the backbone of the European transportstructure.

To meet the challenges of climate change, thesupply of energy and transport network conges-tion, rail has attracted a multi-fold increase in itsshare of passenger and freightmarkets, particularlyfor longer-distance trips.

Rail nowhas a pivotal role delivering a competitiveand environmentally-friendly transport system,growing the economy, enhancing personal mobi-lity and supporting social cohesion. The rail systemhas adapted and will continue to adapt, enablingfurther modal shift andmaintaining its position asthe mode of choice, consistently.

Rail responds to users’ needs, delivering reliable,affordable and attractive services as the core of aseamless and safe mobility network. The sectorhas applied its innovation skills to an assault onavoidable costs and to attracting newusers, achie-ving significantmodal shift. Rail has attracted newcustomers by providing high-quality services thathave stimulated popular support for rail and laidthe foundation for public investment.

Mobility is co-modal and the playing field betweenmodes has been levelled so that decision-makerscan determine developmental strategies based ontruly comparative costs between different trans-port modes. An integrated transport system, withrail as its backbone, continues to enable a morecompetitive European economy with each modeplaying to its strengths.

Europe’s rail sector leads theworld and is at the cut-ting edge globally, continually growing its share ofinternationalmarkets as a result of investment in re-search and innovation and appropriate regulatorysupport. A strong European railway area is the keyto sustainablemobility in a low-carbon society; it isalso essential for economic growth, social cohesionand people’s expectations of mobility.

1. White Paper on Transport: Roadmap to a single Europeantransport area- towards a competitive and resource-efficienttransport system, European Union 2011

1. INTRODUCTION

TECHNICAL POLICY

SERVICES

CHALLENGE2050

3The goals for rail from the Commission’s2011 Transport White Paper:By 2050 rail should substantially expand itsmodal share overmediumand longdistancesfor both passenger and freight, based on adense network connected to all core airportsand sea ports, a major expansion of the highspeed network, and the deployment ofERTMS and of a Europeanmultimodal infor-mation, management and payment system.

CHALLENGE 2050 THE RAIL SECTOR VISION

The rail sector is amajor contributor to theeconomic and social health of Europeas it provides employment for a signifi-

cant number of highly trained personnel 1.Throughout the Union they work in companiesof different sizes either directly providing trans-portation services or as part of the supply andlogistics chain. Their activities provide the foun-dation not only for operating the railway sys-tem but also for Europe’s successful rail supplyindustry, which makes considerable contribu-tions to the needs of the global rail equipmentmarket 2.

Rail makes an important contribution to thegrowing demand for mobility; it accommo-dates demographic change, supports the im-portant social focus on personal well-beingand adapts to changing trends in consumerbehaviour. The sector draws on a range ofknowledge-based skills in which Europe leadsthe world, aided by standards that are de factoworld standards – whether in safety, vehicletechnology, telematic applications, systemsdesign, civil engineering or operations.

Rail has seized a considerable opportunity andcontinues to embrace the renaissance that hasmade it into a consistently dependable rail net-work that provides the backbone of a Euro-pean transport system in whichmodes coope-rate and play to their strengths.

The sector’s framework allows it to innovateand compete effectively, delivering a smart, in-tegrated, green and high-quality service that isfocussed on the needs of European citizens andrail’s customers (passengers, freight shippers).

2. THE SECTOR

1. In 2008, rail transportation services in the EU-27 alone employed 790,000 people, compared with 411,000 people in airtransportation services. The total figure for the rail sector is very much greater when account is taken of rail-related employmentin manufacturing, construction and administrative and support services. See EU Transport in Figures, StatisticalPocketbook 2011, European Commission and also http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Transportation_and_storage_statistics_-_NACE_Rev._2

2. UNIFE World Rail Market Study Boston Consulting Group, 2010

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Rail is vital to delivering the growth agendaonwhich a dynamic society depends. It is the‘greenest’ transport mode. It is the mostcapable form of transport for addressingcongestion and themost pragmatic in termsof efficient land‐use.It is at its most effective and economicwhenmanaging large flows of people and freight.

The vision and goals inChallenge 2050 are allunderpinned by the stepstaken in the core rail systemfields of policy (what needsto be done), technology(developing the tools to enableit to be done) and providingservices (what the user seesand receives when a customerof rail). These apply acrossthe whole vision, overlap andcome together to enhancethe overall attractiveness of railto the customer.

3.VISION AND GOALS

… at the heart of an integrated, attractive transport systemin which each mode plays to its strengths, enabling a more

competitive European economy

… central to delivery of a strategy that has resulted in a massivecut in Green-House Gas (GHG) emissions, reduced oildependency and mitigated the challenge of congestion

… the enabling factor for sustainable mobility that underpinseconomic growth and a dynamic society

PERFORMANCE,SAFETY ANDSECURITY

SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT,

FUNDING

VALUE FOR MONEY,EFFICIENCY, RELIABILITY

LEADERSHIP

RAIL IS...

SERVICES

POLICYTECHNICAL

ATTRACTIVENESSTO THE

CUSTOMER

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qVALUE FOR MONEY

POLICYRail is a “value for money” choice in 2050 as aresult of developing a number of policies:

3Support for research and development todevelop resource-efficient technologies.

3Agreements to share the benefits of innovationand to incentivise reduced whole life costs.

3Authorisation and certification for the inter-operable European railway system is fast, trans-parent, efficient and is undertaken in an eco-nomic manner within an optimised processbetween the EU and at a national level.

3Economies of scale have been introduced bythe development and application of commonstandards for interoperability, particularly sa-fety certification andequipment authorisations.

3Frequently incompatible national standardshave been completely reshapedwith conside-rable help from the sector.

3The sustainability of the rail network in moresparsely populated areas is assured, whereverfinancially relevant. Cost drivers are transparentand technology and standards adapt to localconditionswithout compromising the safety ofthe rail network.

TECHNOLOGY3Investment in new, more resource-efficienttechnologies have and continue to reduce thesector’s costs and help drive greater value formoney internally and externally.

3Management tools assess whole life (Life CycleAssessmentor LCA)environmental andecono-mic impact andalloweasycomparisonofmain-tenance and/or replacement costs.

3The use of modular sub-systems and compo-nents enables upgrades during a vehicle’sservice life in response to changing customerperceptions and requirements.

SERVICES3The sector’s success is basedon customer sup-port brought aboutby consistently high-qualityservices and attractive pricing.

3Very high levels of customer satisfaction reflectuser contentment with high-quality, reliableand good value services. The sector has expe-rienced and continues to attract a multi-foldmodal shift to rail.

3Longer distance passenger travel is mainly byrail and rail shifts more freight than any othertransport mode. End-to-end journey times arehighly competitive with othermodes - rail ser-vices adapt to customer needs and are easy touse.

3A network of high speed passenger serviceslinking key hubs and conurbations is comple-mented by dense multi-modal local networksproviding seamless integration for the first andlast stages of most peoples’ journeys.

3Targeted investment in infrastructure, trains,system automation and well-motivated staffprovides a reliable, high-capacity railwaysystem.

3Shared information platforms and robust ITtools make possible real-time data exchangebetween rail service providers and also inte-gratewith thedataplatformsof other transportmodes.

3Customers enjoy continuous access to theirpersonalised journey information systems andall freight is traced and tracked in real-timethrough all stages of transit, whatever themode.

3With access to continuous high-speed data,passengers treat their journey as a seamlessextension of their working or leisure environ-ment.

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RAIL IS A COMPETITIVE AND VIABLE FIRST CHOICE OF TRANSPORT MODE INTERMS OF COST AND QUALITY OF SERVICE FOR BOTH PASSENGER AND FREIGHTUSERS THUS SUPPORTING THE ECONOMY OF EUROPEAN MEMBER STATES

“Transporting my goodsby rail offers the best valuefor my customers and thesupply chain”

qPERFORMANCE

TRAINS AREON TIME AND PROMISEDFACILITIES FOR FREIGHT ANDPASSENGERS ARE AVAILABLE

POLICY3The creation of a level-playing field betweentransport modes, with comparable and trans-parent intermodal pricing arrangements andinternalisation of external costs, facilitates anopen, competitive market. This shows whateach mode does most effectively and pro-vides a constant incentive to improve and fur-ther tailor services to users’ needs.

TECHNOLOGY3The system is highly automated both opera-tionally and for monitoring vehicle and infra-structure condition andmaintenance. This en-hances system reliability and cost efficiency,improved customer service and a satisfied andproud workforce.

3The network is engineered for resilience. Per-formance is optimised by real-time traffic ma-nagement, maximising capacity, conservingenergy and minimising inconvenience to thepassenger and the freight user. On the rare oc-casions when disruption occurs, services areautomatically and dynamically reconfiguredand customers advised.

SERVICES3Success ismeasured by consistently satisfyingthe customer (both internally and externally).High customer satisfaction levels underpin thepolitical support which, in turn, ensures the in-vestment that is vital to providing and sustai-ning quality services. This is the foundation forachieving the essential modal shift on whichthe EU’s sustainable transport strategy turns.

qSAFETYANDSECURITY

RAIL IS THE SAFEST MODE OFTRANSPORT

POLICY3In 2050 rail is still the safest mode of landtransport and it is actively moving towardsbeing the safest mode of all sectors.

3The operational risk caused by third partiesat critical interfaces, such as between road andrail at level crossings, has been significantlyimproved.

3A harmonised process covers most aspects ofverification and authorisation. Virtual certi-fication systems are common practice for newrolling stock.

TECHNOLOGY3Significant improvements in reliability, availa-bility, maintainability and safety of the railwaysystem all add to the overall attractiveness ofthe system to the customer.

3In the event of an incident, systems restart quic-kly. System performance in degraded mode isclose to that in normal operational mode.

3New operational and track engineering tech-niques are commonplace. Intelligent infrastru-cture, rolling stock and other system compo-nents are autonomously monitored in real-time.

3Maintenance performed on infrastructure isundertaken safely as a result of greater relianceon automated intervention methods.

SERVICES3Competition and business-led managementare important factors for developing rail trans-portation. However, achieving this level of per-formance relies on collaboration between allparties in the railway sector to ensure effectivemanagement of critical interfaces.

3Closemonitoring of the systemattracts custo-mers who know their personal security is en-sured whilst using rail services.


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qCONSISTENCY

PASSENGERS AND FREIGHTUSERS RECEIVE A CONSISTENTLYHIGH-QUALITY SERVICE

POLICY3Trains are highly reliable andpunctual. Rare fai-lures are accompanied by a performance re-gime that compensates affected customersappropriately.

3TheEuropean railway sector operates a systemthat is plannedwith resilience inmind,whetherto cope with external disruption (such as ad-verse weather conditions), internal disruption(caused by train service delivery problems) orwith events such as planned closures formain-tenance work.

3Passengers enjoy seamless journeys in a com-fortable, safe and secure environment, reassu-red by the availability of real-time traffic andwhole-journey information that keeps themabreast of their varying journeyoptions shouldproblems arisewith inter-connectionwith ano-ther mode.

3Building on expertise fromwithin the rail sec-tor and fromothermodes, network infrastruc-ture availability is at a high level. This is mea-suredby appropriate performance regimes forpassenger and freight traffic.

3Bringing together innovative technologies andconcepts, the design, construction, operationand maintenance of network infrastructure isadaptable, automated and weather resilient 1.

TECHNOLOGY3Railway premises and the trains themselvesare always clean and well presented. The RailOperating Community works closly with localplanners to find practical ways of enhancingthe ambiance around railway premises.

3Traceability and reliability makes rail the hi-ghest quality link in the co-modal transportchain.

3Customers benefit from new approaches tosystemmanagement in theevent of disruption.

3Interoperable communications networks andintelligent systems deliver real time traffic andjourney information. This ensures that disrup-tion is minimised and provides users with asafe and secure environment for seamlessjourneys.

SERVICES3The sector listens to its customers. Respondingto customer needs and aspirations builds a si-gnificant level of trust in rail as a brand.

3Users have clear and reliable information,whe-ther it is about fares and tariffs or alternativearrangements during service disruption.

3There is widespread political support for railwith its reputation for transparency and valuefor money.

qCAPACITY

RAIL CAPACITY IS MAXIMISEDON A NETWORK DESIGNED TOMEET CUSTOMER NEEDS ANDMITIGATE CONGESTION IN OTHERTRANSPORT MODES

POLICY3The European railway system facilitates co-modal surface transport with user-friendlymulti-modal hubs that improve urban connec-tivity for passengers and purpose-designedstrategic trans-shipment facilities for freight.

3Improved systemutilisation andorganisationalarrangements maximises capacity on busycorridors.

3Forward planning and investment providesnew capacity on busy corridors where theroute allows andwhere improvements in ope-rational arrangements are insufficient.

1. See for example, the For Ever Open Road project, launched by the Federation of European Highway Research Laboratories andthe sister programmes of research, known as the FOR x 4 Initiative, extending applications to other modes, http://www.forevero-penroad.eu

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“Whether I am in Madridor Manchester the stationis always a clean and safeplace to be”


3Service frequencies, train capacity and yieldmanagement techniques are combined intel-ligently to ensure passengers usually get thetype of seating and shippers the type of ser-vice they want at the times that they want.

TECHNOLOGY3Innovation and effective deployment of trafficmanagement technology maximises existingcapacity.

3Adapting to new technologies for advanceddistribution and logistics requirements, elimi-nating bottlenecks, providing services to fillstrategic ‘missing links’ and running highercapacity trains at faster consistent speedsallows the sector to offer a very attractive pro-duct to customers.

3Train interiors are adaptable to the needs ofdifferent groups of users, such as families, bu-siness travellers, peoplewith reducedmobility,and groups of travellers.

SERVICES3Stations contribute to a positive journey ex-perience: they are accessible, welcoming, se-cure, always comfortable, fit for purpose andfully adapted to the needs of users with redu-ced moblilty.

3The sector continually develops and exploitsnew traffic opportunities. Major ports, airportsand significant new traffic sources are either al-ready linked or are preparing to link to theEuropean railway system.

3End-to-end services are faster and simpler forusers, with improved inter-modal transfers.

qCONNECTIVITY

RAIL IS THE BACKBONE IN ANINTERCONNECTED AND SEAMLESSCO-MODAL TRANSPORT SYSTEM

POLICY3Rail services are the backbone link in an inter-connected and seamless co-modal chain. Forboth freight and passengers, each mode isdeployed because it provides the most ap-propriate transport for a particular journey legand for each part of the chain

3Co-modal transport with user friendly multi-modal hubs improve urban connectivity forpassengers. Purpose-designed strategic trans-shipment facilities for freight are the norm. TheEuropean railway system helps provide theoptimal whole journey experience.

3For example, public transport, cycle facilities,car sharing, car rental or taxi services are clo-sely integrated with rail services.

3The sector works with public authorities tocreate seamless end-to-end journey connecti-vity betweenmodes and to provide high-qua-lity local and regional services that comple-ment the attractiveness of longer distance railservices.

3Freight customers benefit from reliable track,trace and alert systems. Telematics systemsenable passengers to plan the most cost-ef-fective, time-efficient and convenient co-mo-dal journeys. This enables standard systems ar-chitecture and the integration of informationsystems throughout Europe.

TECHNOLOGY3The rail system supports vital pan-Europeanrail corridors and co-modal links with othercontinents – a practical demonstration of thetechnological andoperational innovations thathave made it a global leader.

3Interoperability ensures trains cross state bor-derswithoutdelayoroperational constraint, of-fering a smart alternative to medium-distanceflights and sea and road-borne freight flows.

3Vehicles powered by alternative fuel sourcesincluduing electricity, play an increasingly im-portant part in local travel. Stations offer faci-lities for bike parking and vehicle fueling orbattery-charging points.

SERVICES3International freight corridors connectingma-jor freight concentration hubs linked to freightvillages, ports and other bulk freight sources,underpin a step-change in service quality. Re-liable, fast freight services have opened newmarkets.

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“My train is on time andI have information aboutmy connecting serviceswhen I need it”

qSUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENTTHE EUROPEAN RAILWAY SECTORPROVIDES AN ATTRACTIVE ANDRESOURCE-EFFICIENT SOLUTIONFOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY ANDTRANSPORT AND A SIGNIFICANTCONTRIBUTION TO REDUCTIONSIN GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) EMIS-SIONS AND DEPENDENCY ON OIL

POLICY3The sector makes a vital contribution to theenvironmental, economic and socialwell-beingof theEuropeanUnion. Careful attention to thechallenges of noise andvibration togetherwiththoughtful spatial planning policies and thedevelopment of strategically-located freightconcentration centres have overcome resis-tance in highly-populated areas to the furtherdevelopment of traffic flows.

3Rail engageswith those responsible for spatialplanning and urban developers to ensure therail system is seen as an asset for better landuse, combatting congestion and facilitatingenvironmental and social enhancement.

3The European railway sector maintains andcontinues to expand its leading positionwhilecontinuously improving its contribution tosustainability through responsible businessleadership.

3Rail has a very high environmental perfor-mance that is in linewith the “Moving TowardsSustainable Mobility” strategy1.

TECHNOLOGY3Rail operates cost-beneficial passenger andfreight operations on a “forever open” railwaysystem that controls noise and vibration tosocially and economically acceptable levels.

3Management tools assess whole life environ-mental and economic impact. These allowcomparison of maintenance and/or replace-ment strategies for track and infrastructurebased on traffic and whole life evaluation.

3Optimised vehicle design allows easy upgra-des during a vehicle’s service life in response tochanging customer perceptions and require-ments and business needs and usage.

SERVICES3The European railway sector supplies its cus-tomers and society with attractive, cleanerand resource-efficient solutions for sustainablemobility and transport.

qPEOPLETHE RAIL SECTOR ATTRACTSPERSONNELWHO ARE MOTIVATEDAND COMMITTED TO PROVIDINGA MODERN, FLEXIBLE ANDCRUCIAL SERVICE

POLICY3Developing the commercial and customer ser-vice skills of railwaypersonnel is essential for at-tracting customers to use rail services

3Enterprises acknowledge the importanceof in-vesting in the personal development of everymember of staff throughout their career.Wor-king for the railway is a sourceof pride for staff.

3The railway sector champions and developstechnical railway schools. It actively supportsthe importance of better gender balance intechnical professions.

3Continuing improvement, innovation and flexi-bility, combinedwith a long-termcommitmentto building on the skills of all those working inthe sector, has helped ensure a high-qualityrailway community,motivated by professionalexcellence.

1. “Moving towards Sustainable Mobility: European Rail SectorStrategy 2030 and beyond”(http://www.uic.org/IMG/pdf/pres-strategy.pdf) – published in2010 and provides and approach to environmental and sustai-nability topics in the European rail sector. It outlines how therail sector should be performing in environmental terms in2030 and 2050, and provides a framework that allows compa-nies in the rail sector to make suitable long-term plans.

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“I am proud to tell peopleI work in the rail sector”

SECURING INVESTMENT3The sector’s competitiveness andwider valueis important to a sustainable future and to adeveloping regional economy. Measures thatensure transparent cost comparisons betweenmodes, including the internalisation of exter-nal costs such as safety, congestion and envi-ronmental damage highlight the true cost ofoperating a rail system. This has developedover a number of years and it is now a strongtool for providing attractive, value-for-moneyrail services.

3Innovative financing tools tap new sourcesof funding, securing additional investment, inparticular to increase capacity and improvereliability by alleviating bottlenecks, fillingmissing links and enabling intelligent systemsthroughout the European railway network.This unlocks further economic growth, rein-forced social cohesion and contributes to thefreer movement of Europe’s citizens.`3Investment decisions taken within the sectoraremade after careful appraisal, using a holis-tic approach that takes account of whole-life,whole-system considerations. This maximisesoverall value to the rail sector, the customer,society and the European economy.

qELEMENTS UNDERPINNING ALL THE GOALS

3Sustainable and ambitious public funding forrail infrastructure guarantees the quality of thenetwork, facilitating the success of rail trans-port services for the benefit of the customer.This allows operators to accurately forecastfuture market needs, enabling them to investin quality services such as new rolling stock,new services, and higher frequency services.

3Proper compensation of PSOcontracts is gua-ranteed and this provides stability and predic-tabilty.

LEADERSHIPWITHINTHE RAIL SECTOR3The sector’s leaders act determinedly and col-laboratively across functional and territorialboundaries to run a safe and efficient rail sys-temwhile respecting the rules of competition.There is clear focus on the strategic directionand the needs and aspirations of the sector’scustomers.

3Global leadership of the European railway sec-tor is rooted in a culture that places a premiumon consumer understanding, continuous in-novation and a readiness to adapt to techno-logical and commercial opportunities,manyofwhich span national and regional boundaries.

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3The rail sector is determined todevelop the fu-ture vision and to ensure that forward strategyretains and evolves rail as the backbone of asustainable European transport system.

3Railmaintains its leading position as the back-bone of the European transport network byconsistently delighting all customers. All partsof the sector collaborate closely to ensure theentire service delivery chain is robust.

3With a strong foundation provided by thetechnical specifications for interoperabilityand common safety methods, the rail sectortakes responsibility for delivering a suite ofstandards that supports theprovisionof a cost-effective and fully interoperable European rail-way system.

THE POSITION OF EUROPEAS A GLOBAL SECTOR PLATFORM3The innovative, sustainable and highly compe-titive European rail sector is leading theworld.

3The sector’s supply industry is recognisedglo-bally for its leadership in the design andconstruction of a large range of high perfor-ming, very cost-effective and energy efficientproducts.

3The Rail Operating Community is seen as glo-bal experts in the design, construction, opera-tion and maintenance of a world-class railsystem.

3This position is underpinned and strengthe-ned by a seamless European research and in-novation programme that assures continuitythrough radical research, applied research,development, demonstration and innovationin products and services.

DELIVERING CHANGE3All administrative and technical barriers to in-teroperability have been removed and econo-mic and social conditions converged.

3The railway systemhas achievedbetter perfor-mance and lower costs whilst respecting sub-sidiarity andwithout prejudicing the competi-tive efficiency of the European railway system.

3Solutions are developed from a whole-sectorapproach to deliver consistently high-qualityservices, for example, ensuring timely andrelevant customer information at times ofdisruption. Solutions draw on stakeholder

collaboration and technical innovation, ensu-ring that rail is highly competitive when com-pared to road and aviation. TheShift Rail initia-tive and also ERRAC, the Technology Platformfor rail research and innovation, have beencore components in achieving this vision.

3The European rail sector is founded on an ef-ficient and effective policy of collaborative de-velopment which is supported by a pragmaticregulatory framework that addresses fundingand financing issues as a pre-requisite.

3Overcoming the challenges facing the sectorand achieving our vision required a supreme,coordinated effort and considerable focus. Thesector worked and continues to work closelywith all the key players at the most appropri-ate levels to secure appropriate levels of publicfunding in partnership with private funding.

3The European rail sector has achieved globalleadership and continues to meet the objec-tives and needs of society. To achieve its vi-sion, the sector required combined public andprivate funding of around one trillion Euros,largely to plug the funding gap for retentionand development of infrastructure that is fitfor a mid-century railway system.

3To make every aspect of this vision a reality,the sector had to identify and address a consi-derable range of issues that were the key dri-vers for change. Accompanying theChallenge2050 vision for the future of rail is a paper thatdescribes howmemight take the first steps to-wards achieving this vision. Please read thissupportingpaper in conjunctionwithChallenge2050.

©Dreamstime/Fotolia/DR

This paper describes many of the importantdrivers that were either the foundation or thecatalyst for the changes necessary to arriveat our vision and goals for the rail system.Whilst the main Challenge 2050 documenthas been written as if the reader is in 2050and looks back at the route taken, this paperbuilds from today and outlines some of thesector’s key drivers.The paper follows an iterative process thatdemonstrates how we aligned the vision tothe goals and then developed this vision toachieve successful delivery.

1. THE DRIVERS OF CHANGE

Rail currently has a 6% share of the passen-ger market (measured in passenger kilome-tres) and around 16% of the inland freightmarket (measured in tonne kilometres) 1. Incontrast, road transport accounts for morethan 70% of all passenger kilometres andfreight-tonne kilometres.By 2050 this has changed and the Europeanrail system will have attracted and be capableof handling a multi-fold increase in traffic vo-lumes.The scale of these increases is accentuatedwhen we allow for the underlying growth intransport demand by 2050: freight volumes

THIS PAPER SUPPORTS THE VISION AND GOALS SET BY THE RAIL SECTOR IN ITSDOCUMENT “CHALLENGE 2050”, PUBLISHED IN FEBRUARY 2013.

are expected to increase by more than 80%and passenger volumes by more than 50%2.This suggests an eightfold increase in freightmoved by rail and a twelvefold increase inpassenger travel.

This growth is the core message in Challenge2050 and it presents rail with a significantopportunity. Rationally there is little alterna-tive if we are to meet the demand for increa-sed mobility within the constraints of signi-ficantly reduced greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions and the need to address conges-tion. Although the aviation sector has an ‘as-pirational goal’ of reducing its net CO2 emis-sions by 50% between 2005 and 2050 3 itcannot match rail’s green potential. On land,even the potential of e-cars, and other formsof more environmentally-friendly road trans-port – while mitigating the emissions impactof conventionally-fuelled vehicles – stillleaves the problem of congestion. In con-trast, rail excels at moving large volumes ofpassengers and goods 4.The challenge for rail is to drive the beha-vioural changes and secure the physicalmeans necessary to attract, manage and re-tain these new volumes of demand as fore-cast by experts 5-8 whilst remaining safe andthe leading mode of land transport.

CHALLENGE 2050L SUPPORTING PAPER

1. Source: EU Transport in Figures, Statistical Pocketbook 2011, tables 2.2.2 and 2.3.2.

2. Source: Commission Staff Working Document accompanying the White Paper, SEC(2011) 391 final

3. Source: Aviation Industry Commitment Action on Climate Change, Air Transport Action Group, (not for profitorganisation representing all sectors of the air transport industry), Geneva, 22.04.2008

4. A journey from home to work by car consumes ninety times more urban space than the same journey by metro,and twenty times more than if it is by bus or tram. Source: UITP, 2010

on average live for another 17.4 years 9. Thishighlights the importance of special needsand the issues facing people with reducedmobility.The dominance of the private car illustratesconsumer expectations. In their cars, peopleare cocooned in their own private spacewhen travelling, frequently insulated by air-conditioning, cradled in variable geometryseats and calmed by high-quality audio oftheir choice. The rail sector must develop in-sight and innovation to tempt people out oftheir cars and reinforce modal shift. Anotherdemographic trend is individualisation, anaspect that has been supported by the useof private cars and one that provides achallenge for the interior design of passengerenvironments.

qUrbanisationMost of Europe’s citizens live in urban areaswith more than 10,000 inhabitants. Those inurban conglomerations face particular trans-port problems where traffic congestion andpollution is at its worst and where depen-dence on public transport is at its greatest.Enhancing mobility while at the same timereducing congestion, ensuring efficient landuse, and reducing accidents and pollution isa common challenge for all the major cities inEurope. The rail sector is ready to work withspatial planners to address these problems.Rail has a unique contribution to make in re-ducing congestion, ensuring more efficientland-use, greater safety and much lower levelsof pollution.

qEnd-to-end journeysRelatively few journeys (freight or passenger)involve a single leg, but they frequently in-volve several modes. Typically, medium andlonger distance journeys – those in whichthe EU White Paper foresees the principalshift to rail – involve a change of services forthe last or first leg of the journey.

These can consume disproportionate sharesof the overall total journey time: people haveto wait for connections and freight is trans-ferred between modes. This adds signifi-cantly to users’ perceptions of inconvenienceand does not tempt people away from usingprivate transport. Solving the problems of

inter-connectivity, overcrowding and seam-less journey planning is clearly important forachieving significant modal shift.

qLeadershipThe structure from which this vision willemerge is one that reflects its origins in arange of local commercial initiatives or, atbest, the national ambitions of individualMember States. Today this is reflected in themultiplicity of processes and standardsacross the European railway area.The railway sector recognises the need to fo-cus on the economic efficiency of the wholesystem but at the same time respect theprinciple of subsidiarity.The principal challenge taking the sector to-wards 2050 is to find new ways of exploitinginnovation and developing business oppor-tunities within the framework of an efficientlyperforming internal market. For this to hap-pen an effective collective leadership mustemerge so that rail is able to position itself asa mode alongside other modes and giveitself that competitive edge10.

The sector can best achieve this through acomprehensive strategic programme ofstandardisation that is led by the rail sectorand based on the sector’s business needsfrom a strong European perspective.

The European railway supply industry cur-rently supplies more than 50% of the world-wide production of rail equipment and ser-vices. It is a global leader in the productionof equipment for high speed services andurban services. The total accessible worldmarket for the rail industry in 2011 was esti-mated at more than €146 billion 11.

Despite global economic problems, annualgrowth of the world rail market has conti-nued at around 6%. This has been stimulatedby the success of high speed services in Eu-rope, the flexiblity and attractiveness of railfreight products, European industrial lea-dership in metro network technology andthe attractions of the success of Europeanrail transport management systems.The increasingly important role that rail isexpected to play in the future of Europeansociety and its sustainable economic growth,

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9. Eurostat: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/3-19042012-AP/EN/3-19042012-AP-EN.PDF

10. Dr Libor Lochman, Executive Director of CER, Understanding the McNulty Report from an EU Rail Perspective, February2012. http://www.cer.be/images/events/2012/120201_CER_ATOC_Event/cer_atoc%20event_presentation_cer.pdf

11. UNIFE World Rail Market Study, 2012

provides a rare opportunity for the Europeanrail sector to consolidate its position world-wide, providing the basis for innovative tech-nological development within Europe andgenerating significant additional employ-ment in enterprises of all sizes spread throu-ghout the Union. We can only achieve thiswith a strong vision and leadership that isworking for the entire sector.

2. PLANNING TO DELIVER

Once published, Challenge 2050 must begiven life.The sector will need to carefully plan deliveryto achieve the massive shift to rail that isvital to meet the goals of emissions reduc-tion, sustainable economic growth and socialcohesion.This is a huge opportunity and will needconsiderable commitment from the entirerail sector to introduce this change and en-courage the massive predicted modal shiftto rail.We will achieve many of the visionary ele-ments in this paper through a consolidatedresearch, development and innovation pro-gramme which will need additional invest-ment, particularly to achieve the capacityand reliability challenges.This Challenge 2050 is of course where thevision starts with delivery being enabled as aresult of the detailed research needs as set outin Rail Route 2050 produced by ERRAC andwith the support of innovation vehicles withthe proposed Shift2Rail being a key focus.The ability to raise the funding for that invest-ment will depend on gaining the political sup-port necessary to turn our vision into reality.

The European institutions have an importantrole in providing the right framework forsuccess:

We will regularly update this paper to take account of sector and external developments.

3The institutions must ensure the levelplaying field that will enable different trans-port modes to compete transparently andto play collaboratively to their strengths.Legislative arrangements to secure the in-ternalisation of external costs are central tothis, as they are to the evolution of a morecompetitive European economy.

3The EU institutions can facilitate the crea-tion of appropriate and innovative new fun-ding arrangements – as the Commissionhas already done with its proposals for theConnecting Europe Facility which is inten-ded to lever significant new infrastructurefunds from private sector sources.

Europe’s rail operating community needs aprogramme of harmonised rail standardscreated by the sector for the sector:3This includes timely and cost-effective in-

teroperability and safety specificationsjointly elaborated with the relevant organi-sations, such as the ERA.

3These will deliver the vision contained inChallenge 2050.

Europe’s rail supply community can continueto be the global leader for cutting-edgetechnology in world markets whilst suppor-ting the capacity and reliability of the Euro-pean railway system:3But this requires significant funding, inspi-

red leadership and a European frameworkthat nurtures innovation and reflects theimportance of the whole sector as one ofthe pillars of sustainable growth in Europe.

Only the enthusiastic support of Europe’srail users will enable the economic success ofthe rail system.3Continuous dialogue between the sector

and user groups will provide focussed inputfor developing innovative solutions to meetshared challenges.

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qReductions in EmissionsEuropean Union policy aims at 70% feweremissions 5 than today: this will require ahuge reduction in the use of conventionally-fuelled vehicles by 2050.The role of public transport will be transfor-med with improved inter-connectivity bet-ween rail and other modes, particularly forlonger journeys.This implied increase in rail usage means pro-viding modern infrastructure and equipmentthat removes bottlenecks, facilitates user-friendly cross-modal accessibility and fillsmissing links. Coupled with a step-change inservice quality and efficiency this will, thanksto vision and commitment as well as signifi-cant investment on a Europe-wide scale,mean a much more attractive and efficientrail system.

We will need effort and energetic commit-ment to make this happen. With increasingglobal demand for carbon fuels and escala-ting extraction costs, there is no longer acontinued dependency on oil, because re-liance on oil is likely to be incompatible withcontinuing economic growth.

qCongestionOther cost drivers put the level of invest-ment required into context. By 2050, thecost of congestion is projected to have in-creased by about 50% to nearly €200 billionannually6. Road and air congestion is expen-sive. It increases fuel consumption, generatesadditional noise and unnecessary additionalemissions, wastes peoples’ time and reducesproductivity. Congestion means expensive re-sources cannot be used to their full potential.

New roads and airport capacity are land-take hungry, whilst providing increased railtrack-capacity to ease network hotspots iscomparatively efficient, because it is usuallylimited to established corridors with envi-ronmental intrusions mitigated. Public trans-port facilitates good land use. It permits hi-gher-density settlements, avoids the needfor expensive city centre parking and conse-quently saves scarce land resources.

Rail unit costs tend to fall as traffic density in-creases. With funding to provide sufficientcapacity and EU-wide application of effec-tive traffic management systems, rail is wellplaced to tackle congestion.However, this requires a level playing fieldbetween transport modes, including the in-ternalisation of external costs, for example,by identifying the costs of congestion, acci-dents and environmental impacts and allo-cating these costs to the modes that actuallycause them. We must apply a consistent ap-proach across modes to factors such as pas-senger rights, energy costs, social conditionsand taxation. Transparent pricing, the evolu-tion of multi-modal transport technologiesand policies that optimise efficient co-mo-dality will allow rail to gain a considerablecompetitive edge over other transportmodes by 2050.

qCostsThe cost of providing the infrastructure re-quired to meet the growing demand fortransport across all modes is estimated atover €1.5 trillion between now and 2030.Rail will require the largest share of this in-vestment if Europe is to meet its GHG re-duction targets 7. Without significant eco-nomic growth, finding this money from thepublic purse will become increasingly diffi-cult. Funding adequate welfare provision foran ageing population coupled with falling ex-cise revenues as reliance on carbon fuelsdeclines, will require ever more innovativemethods to reduce costs and secure newsources of finance.Meeting those challenges will be determinedby the sector’s ability to deliver attractiveservices to passengers and freight custo-mers at competitive prices. We must offercost-effective and safe services withoutcompromising on quality. We must seek eco-nomies of scale through developing and ap-plying common standards for interoperability,eliminating wasteful national duplication ofmatters that can be dealt with effectively atEuropean level, particularly standardisation,safety certification and equipment authori-sations.

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5. The contribution of the various modes to the GHG emissions of the transport sector (including international aviationand marine but excluding combustion emissions from pipeline transportation, ground activities in airports and harbours,and off-road activities) was as follows in 2008: 71.3% came from road, 13.5% from maritime, 12.8% from aviation, 1.8%from inland navigation and 0.7% from diesel-powered rail transport. ibid

6. See Impact Assessment on the Transport White Paper, SEC(2011) 358 final.


To have a real chance of levelling the playingfield with other transport modes, the rail sec-tor must reshape the legacy of the numerousand frequently incompatible national stan-dards. These frustrate innovation and effi-cient procurement and inflate the sector’sadministrative costs. The sector carries anunnecessary burden that constrains the op-portunities for opening markets and in-creases end costs to passengers, freightusers and taxpayers.Placing this responsiblity within a standardi-saton framework that focuses on European-level requirements and is run by the rail sec-tor for the rail sector (rather than the currentvery nationalistic framework) will dramati-cally improve system efficiency and quality,and reduce overheads.

qUser attitudes to railAlthough performance and reliability is thesingle most important driver of user satis-faction, journey times also determine rail’smarket share in competition with other trans-port modes 8. By 2050 the rail sector willhave done everything possible to developits competitive edge over passenger air tra-vel. This is especially important for conurba-tion-to-conurbation rail journey times wherea duration of up to four hours remains com-petitive with air travel. This suggests thathigh speed rail is a credible alternative forjourneys of up to 1000km. Innovation of thehigh speed product offer may see and in-crease in this in the future.

With freight traffic, rail will offer shippers im-portant benefits such as frequency, reliability,service quality, price and convenience of ac-cess between modes at ports and othertranshipment points. High speed freight willplay a significant role in ensuring that rail isthe attractive logisitics backbone of the Eu-ropean system and one that customers seeas their first mode of choice.

A top-line analysis of customer perceptionsof rail services highlights many commonthemes across Europe. Rail users want ser-vices that are reliable: passengers and freightshould reach the destination safely and ontime, with facilities provided as advertised.Customers value convenience - they wantto be able to access their preferred service atthe time they want. For example, a change of

train; a complicated connection with anothertransport mode; or a freight consignmentthat has a complicated transfer or is left sit-ting in a siding for a long time, can deter po-tential customers from even thinking aboutrail as an option. Customers don’t like com-plicated tariff arrangements. They also wanteasy and immediate access to relevant in-formation about times, facilities and costs.Not least, users want value for money and toarrive at the destination on time and safely.These are the principal drivers of customersatisfaction across Europe.

The rail sector recognises the importance offurther transformation to achieve higher le-vels of customer satisfaction. We know fromuser responses to modernisation pro-grammes that we can achieve change andbenefit business. This matters if rail is to winthe additional traffic that policy planners be-lieve it ought to attract.

qGovernment attitudes to railAn eight or even twelvefold increase in pas-senger volume won’t be achieved by de-fault. At the very least, governments will lookfor some degree of public support beforeproviding the funds essential for moderni-sing the system. Without this investmentthere is little chance of achieving the vitalstep-change in service quality necessary tosmooth an increase in market share. Publicperception and support is part of a virtuouscircle that could make or break the EU’s am-bitious transport strategy.

Research consistently shows that the ope-rational performance of the rail system, par-ticularly punctuality and reliability, is themain driver of customer satisfaction. Conver-sely, the failure of service providers to ma-nage disruption adequately is a major sourceof customer dissatisfaction. Disruption hassuch a negative impact on rail and society asa whole, because most people plan their ac-tivities around published times. Effectivecustomer information gives people confi-dence that the system is being managed ef-fectively.

qThe future transport structureBy 2050 rail will be embedded at the heart ofan integrated transport system where eachmode plays to its strengths in an environment

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8. Air and Rail Competition and Complementarity, Steer Davies Gleave, August 2006

of cooperation and competitiveness, enablinga more competitive European economy.Rail has a unique potential within land trans-port to gain very high modal shares over in-termediate and long distances, both withinthe EU and through providing reliable andcompetitive links to Asia, the Middle Eastand beyond.Developing the competitive edge inside andoutside the sector is widely acknowledged tohave delivered efficiency gains and a morebusiness-oriented culture in the rail sector.

Unlike other transport modes, the rail sectordepends on efficient and effective 24/7 ma-nagement of a range of core internal inter-faces such as the interface between wheeland rail and external internal interfaces bet-ween third parties. A safe railway relies on ef-fective management of this and many othercore interfaces. Keeping these interfacesworking effectively whilst encouraging tech-nical innovation will be a core challenge aswe model the future rail system.

The rail infrastructure is vital to this transition.By 2050, infrastructure managers will havereinforced their cooperation to create astronger emphasis on the need for reliablecorridors and a strong network focus withmore joint ventures across state and territo-rial borders and greater alignment of techni-cal standards.To facilitate these necessary trends, bothtechnical and market development shouldbe collaborative, with supporting regulationorganised at a pan-European level and theunderpinning standardisation framework runfor the sector by the sector with a firm busi-ness-led approach.

qHigh Speed passenger servicesHigh-speed lines will have been upgradedand extended by 2050. A European high-speed network will provide services connec-ting the major European metropolitan areasand airports on trains free of operationalconstraints.

The need to manufacture high speed trainsrepresents an important challenge for thesupply industry, both in terms of the quantityand quality of the trains and the technologi-cal developments we need to achieve overthe coming decades. Partnerships betweenindustry and operators for the design, manu-

facture, operation and maintenance of highspeed passenger and freight trains will pro-vide the future way of working.The move in this direction will mean greateroperational availability and maintainabilityof trains by 2050. This will help high-speedpassenger and freight services to become amajor pan-European success story.

The rail infrastructure will improve conti-nuously, allowing it to cope with higherspeeds. This includes improved maintenanceconcepts for ballasted track, new or impro-ved construction of slab track, and newmaterials for catenary. Reducing noise andvibration and improving energy efficiencywill make high speed services one of themost sustainable service types.

Standardisation will be key to reducing costsand making high speed services more cost-efficient. We can best achieve these effi-ciencies as a sector by preparing and publi-shing our own production standards at aEuropean level, rather than relying on thirdparty development with a national focus.

qDeveloping freightFreight transport today is often reducedto a minor part in a logistics chain. It is im-perative that we develop European freightmobility systems and logistic chains in a co-modal transport perspective, where ultimatecompetitiveness results from combining thebest performance of each transport mode.

Rail must enhance its present role in co-mo-dality by tackling the challenge of the phy-sical movement of load units as an industrialprocess as well as the options resulting fromthat. Part of that challenge is to develop and,where it makes good economic sense, adaptthe existing network to accommodate thehigh speed movement of freight traffic bet-ween major conurbations on a city to citybasis.By 2050 most freight trains will perform si-milarly to passenger trains, and this will allowinterleaving without the loss of capacity.

qDemographic changeRail users are likely to become more deman-ding over the coming decades. Customersare getting older: a 65-year old woman in theEU can expect to live on average for a fur-ther 21 years while her male counterpart will

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