OECD/IEA - 2008
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Energy Technologies for a Low Carbon FutureInsights from Energy Technology Perspectives 2008
Dr Peter TaylorActing Head, Energy Technology Policy Division
Global Technology Perspectives and the Role of CHP/DHC in Global Warming Prevention
Sapporo, 4 July 2008
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Background
Request for alternative scenarios by the G8 at the Gleneagles summit (2005)
ETP2008 publication launched in Tokyo on 6 June 2008
Conclusions reported to both G8 Energy Ministers meeting (June) and G8 Leaders summit (July)
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Goals of ETP2008
This is a study about the role of technology in reducing CO2 emissions
It presents key technology roadmaps that specify development needs
The results can support enhanced international technology cooperation
It is not meant for country target setting in a post-Kyoto framework
It is not a study about climate policy instruments
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Content of ETP2008
Scenario analysis
Baseline WEO2007 Reference Scenario
Global stabilization by 2050 (ACT)
Global 50% reduction by 2050 (BLUE) consistent with WEO2007 450 ppm case
How to get there
Short and medium term technology policy needs
Special attention for technology roadmaps
Technology chapters
Power sector
End-use sectors
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
ACT Scenarios
Energy CO2 emissions in 2050 back to the level of 2005
Revision of ACT as published in ETP2006
Options with a marginal cost up to USD 50/t CO2 worldwide (model outcome)
Cost estimate has doubled from ETP2006
ACT implies a significantly adjusted energy system
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
-50% energy related CO2 in 2050, compared to 2005This could be consistent with 450 ppm
(depending on post-2050 emissions trends)
Options with a marginal cost of up to USD 200/t CO2 needed (model outcome)Significantly higher cost with less
optimistic assumptions
BLUE is uncertain, therefore a number of cases needed
BLUE is only possible if the whole world participates fully
BLUE implies a completely different energy system
BLUE Scenarios
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Emissions Scenarios and Concentrations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Em
issio
ns (
Gt
CO
2/y
r)
Baseline
ACT Map
BLUE Map
550 (ppm)
425
445
455
385 (ppm)
445
485
450-520 (ppm)
Oceanic storage uncertainty
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
A New Energy Revolution?
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Ma
rgin
al c
ost
(US
D/t
CO
2)
2050 CO2 emissions reduction (Gt CO2/yr)
Transport alternative fuels
Industry fuel switchingand CCS
Power sector
End-use efficiencyACT Map
BLUE Map
500
100
50
200
Technology Pessimism
Technology Optimism
To bring emissions back to current levels by 2050 options with a cost up to USD 50/t are needed. Reducing emissions by 50% would require options with a cost up to USD 200/t.
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Final Energy UseDoubles in Baseline, significant savings in Policy scenarios
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2005 Baseline 2030
Baseline 2050
ACT Map 2050
BLUE Map 2050
Fin
al en
erg
y d
em
an
d (
Mto
e)
Buildings
Transportation
Industry
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Pri
mary
en
erg
y s
up
ply
(M
toe)
2005
Baseline 2050
ACT Map 2050
BLUE Map 2050
-27%
Primary Energy DemandImportant supply security benefits
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
CO
2e
mis
sio
ns
(G
tC
O2/y
r)
CCS industry and transformation 9%
CCS power generation 10%
Nuclear 6%
Renewables 21%
End use electricity efficiency 12%
End use fuel efficiency 24%
End-use fuel switching 11%
Power generation efficiency
& fuel switching 7%
WEO2007 450 ppm case ETP2008 BLUE Map scenario
Baseline Emissions 62 Gt
BLUE Map Emissions 14 Gt
Contributions of Technology Wedges
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Sector Contributions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Em
issio
ns (
Gt
CO
2)
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
Baseline emissions 62 Gt
WEO 2007 450 ppm case ETP2008 analysis
Power sector (38%)
Industry (19%)
Buildings (17%)
Transport (26%)
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2005 Baseline 2030
Baseline 2050
ACT Map 2050
BLUE Map 2050
Glo
bal
ele
ctr
icit
y p
rod
ucti
on
(T
Wh
)
Other renewablesSolar
Wind
Biomass + CCS
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas + CCS
Gas
Oil
Coal + CCS
Coal
Power Generation Mix
nuclear and fossil + CCS, nearly half renewables
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Power Sector CO2 Reductions
CO2 capture and storage
26%
Wind12%
Solar PV7%Solar CSP
7%
Nuclear15%
IGCC coal4%
Ultra/ supercritical
coal4%
BIGCC & biomass co-combustion
8%
Gas efficiency2%
Fuel switching coal to gas
10%
Hydro2%
Geothermal3%
BLUE Map 18 Gt CO2 reduction
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Role of CHP
Greater use of CHP can significantly raise energy supply efficiency, but barriers need to be removed and appropriate policies are required
Current technical potential for CO2 savings from increased use of industry CHP is 110 - 170 Mt CO2 /yr
CHP use quadruples in the BLUE scenario, its share in power generation rises from 9% to 14%
The IEA energy accounting system shows the benefits of CHP as an efficiency gain for electricity generation
Further R&D can lower the costs of new CHP technologies (e.g. high-temperature CHP, fuel cell CHP, micro-turbine CHP, CHP with CCS) and allow greater expansion into new markets e.g. commercial and residential sectors
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Average Annual Power Generation Capacity Additions, 2010 2050
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Industry CO2 Reductions
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050 ACT Map 2050 Blue Map 2050
Em
iss
ion
s (G
t C
O2)
Other (efficiency + fuel switching)
Electricity supply CO2 reductions
Electricity demand reduction
CCS (energy +process)
Indirect electricity CO2 emissions
Direct process CO2 emissions
Direct energy CO2 emissions
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Buildings & Appliances CO2Reductions
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050 ACT Map 2050 BLUE Map 2050
Em
iss
ion
s (G
t C
O2)
Fuel switching and efficiency gains
Electricity savings
Electricity supply CO2 reduction
Indirect electricity CO2 emissions
Gas
Oil
Coal
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Buildings Sector Savings by Sector and End-use in BLUE Map
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Transport CO2 Reductions
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Em
iss
ion
s (G
t C
O2)
Hydrogen FCVs
Electrification
Biofuels
Conv. and Hybrid Vehicle Efficiency
CO2 emissions
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Public RD&D Trends in IEA
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Sh
are
of E
nerg
y R
&D
in T
ota
l R&
D
Millio
n U
S$ (
2005 p
rices a
nd
PP
P) Nuclear
Other
Hydrogen and fuel cells
Renewable energy sources
Fossil fuels
Energy efficiency
Share of energy R&D in total R&D
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Technology RD&D Needs
Power generation
Building and Appliances
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Energy RD&D Key Messages
Both public and private energy RD&D investments have declined since the early 1980s
Current IEA Governments energy RD&D - USD 10 billion/yr
Nuclear dominates government RD&D
Companies energy RD&D - USD 40-60 billion/yr
Information about industrial energy RD&D trends is scarce
Unclear how much RD&D would be sufficient to meet the goals
Literature suggests USD 10-100 billion/yr additional investments
Leave it to industry or role for government ?
Cooperation or competition model ?
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Total Cumulative Investment Needs (2005-2050)
Demand-side investments dominate additional investment needs above the Baseline scenario, energy efficiency helps to reduce upstream investment needs in energy supply and transportation infrastructure
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Total Total
ACT Map BLUE Map
Investm
en
t (U
SD
tri
llio
n)
Total
Distribution
Transformation
Commercial
Industry
Power Plant
Transmission
Residential
Transport
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Cumulative Additional Investment in the Buildings Sector (2005-2050)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
ACT Map BLUE Map
Inves
tme
nt
(US
D t
rillio
n)
Space heating
Cooking
Lighting
Water heating
Air conditioners
Appliances
Replacement/demolition
Building shell measures
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Investment Key Messages
ACT: $17 trillion above Baseline (0.4% of GDP)
BLUE: $45 trillion above Baseline (1.1% of GDP)
Demand side investments dominate (4 times supply side investments)
Even in BLUE undiscounted fuel savings exceed additional investment needs
The problem for BLUE is not just cost, but: ensuring timely investment, and
sharing the investment burden
Current financing mechanisms are nowhere
near enough to achieve BLUE scenario
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Roadmaps17 technology roadmaps provide 87% of CO2 savings under the Blue scenario
Potentials
Pathways to commercialization
Technology targets
How to get there
Key actions needed
Key areas for international cooperation
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Key Technology Options (Roadmaps)
Supply side
CCS power generation
Nuclear III + IV
Wind
Biomass IGCC & co-combustion
Solar PV
Solar CSP
Coal IGCC
Coal USCSC
2nd generation biofuels
Demand side
Energy efficiency in buildings
Heat pumps
Solar space and water heating
Energy efficiency in transport
Electric and plug-in vehicles
Fuel cell vehicles
CCS in industry
Industrial motor systems
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Roadmaps Example CCS10% of CO2 reduction potential in BLUE Map
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Roadmaps Example Efficiency Buildings and Appliances 15% of CO2 reduction potential in BLUE Map
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Key Messages from ETP2008
Deep emission cuts are technically achievable
Significant investment required
Credible long-term targets needed
This change is urgentCapital stock turnover is slow
Technology development needs time
Non-cost barriers should be addressed
Global energy technology revolution needed
Cooperation with DCs is essential
In support of the G8 Plan of Action OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
2 0 0 8
INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY
AGENCY
Thank You !
