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Cellular networks on the road to 5G: just more lanes or a junction? Dr. Ir. Michael Peeters, CTO Wireless 20150609 Big Telecom Event, ATIS 5G Symposium, Chicago
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In practice, technology had 30 years of evolution and disruption
TD-LTE
WCDMA HSDPA/ HSUPA HSPA
2G
3G
4G “Agreed” disruption
Smooth evolution
“Disruptive” disruption
GSM GPRS EDGE E-GPRS2
Single carrier TD-SCDMA TD-SCDMA
TDMA
PDC
CDMA 1X EV-DO rev B
UMB
WiMAX 16e
WiMAX 16d
EV-DV
LTE-FDD
FDD
TDD
EV-DO rev A
EV-DO rev 0
LTE-adv
Year in commercial service 2000 2005 2010 1995 2015 1990 2020
LTE-adv
WiMAX 16m
HSPA evol
5G 5G ?
5G
CIoT?
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3.9Bn People connected
to the Internet in 2017
Increase in video traffic 2012–2017
720%
Things connected to the Internet
in 2020
10Bn Increase in cloud and data center traffic 2012–2017
440% Increase in mobile
broadband speed by 2019
2.3X Increase in cloud computing market
2013–2017
2X
More tablets sold in 2014 than laptops and
desktop computers combined
320M Enterprise networking
market revenue in 2017 (US $)
>50Bn
Just more of everything?
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+ 4G/LTE addressing new markets
Internet of Things
Public Sectors Public Safety/Defense/Govt
Fixed Wireless Access
Energy Utilities/Oil & Gaz
Transportation Railways/Highways/Aviation
MOBILE BB DIVERSIFICATION
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9 Key use cases @NGMN
Use case family Example use case Key technical requirement
Broadband in dense areas
Pervasive video Massive spectrum on small cell pushing need for new “high” band to achieve traffic density of up to 750 Gb/s per km2 in dense urban
Broadband everywhere
50 Mb/s everywhere Significant improvement to cell edge bitrate to offer consistent user experience at target bitrate over 95% locations for 95% of time
Ultra-low cost networks Flexible radio parameters for cost reduction when offering limited services (<10 Mb/s, >50ms, <20 Device/km2)
Higher user mobility High speed train Flexible radio parameters for speeds up to 500 km/h
Massive Internet of Things
Sensor networks Connectionless service to offer scalable solution for device densities of up to 200kDevice/km2 and extended battery life
Extreme real-time Tactile internet Flexible radio parameters for low latency down to 1 ms
Lifeline Natural disaster High availability and service recovery resilience mechanisms to ensure availability of basic communications (voice, text, etc.) with large battery life
Ultra-reliable Public safety High reliability rates up to 99.999% (5 nines) implying need to eliminate single points of failure from network design
Broadcast like Broadcast services Reuse of SFN techniques from LTE to offer efficient wide area service delivery
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Where does 4G stumble? = 6 requirement drivers for 5G
BROADBAND Massive traffic capacity Reduce Cost Spectrum efficiency Access new spectrum
EXTREME DENSITY Massive user density User content
MISSION CRITICAL Very low latency
High reliability High availability
Security
INNOVATIVE SERVICES Flexible bearer design 3rd party policy
BATTERY LIFE Signaling reduction
Energy optimization
NON TRADITIONAL DEVICES Short packet
Sporadic access More devices and more device types
5G
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A divergence is coming: 2 asymptotes
# of subscribers (= human or machine)
amou
nt o
f tr
affi
c/su
b/m
onth
2G
Mobile voice, traffic scaling proportional to number of subs. 3G
Start of mobile broadband. Usage per subscriber increasing.
4G Mobile entertainment, total traffic driven by average data usage instead of by number of subscribers.
5G
At the same time as ultra-broadband continues to grow, the rise of M2M traffic and number of subscribers causes diverging requirements, both technical and economical.
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5G Vision
Ultra-broadband Offering higher bitrates and supporting extreme traffic densities for the evolution of comms and entertainment
+ 5G
Serving both traditional as well as potential new applications like drones, real time video surveillance, mobile augmented and virtual reality, IoT…
=
5G = unified ecosystem …
Ultra-narrowband Efficient sensing and control added to LTE broadband; massive densities of low traffic devices and bearers
Consistent experience Better bits rather than simply more cheap bits to offer a more wireline like experience
But also… Ultra low latency Mission critical specialized services and immersive virtual reality
But also…
5G Phase 1 below 6GHz
2020 2022
5G Phase 2 + above 20GHz
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Technology evolution The broadband scenario is “clear”
2015 2017 2019 2021
LTE LTE-A LTE-U 5G
<6GHz 5G
mmWave
triggers: marketing; latency for augmented reality, games; enabling massive MIMO
trigger: last drop wire/fiber replacement
LTE-A evolution
LTE-A evolution
direct path: continues to serve tradional mobile BB case. WiFi
802.11n WiFi 802.11ac
WiFi 802.11ad
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Technology evolution The broadband scenario is “clear” – is narrowband sufficiently important ?
2015 2017 2019 2021
LTE LTE-A LTE-U 5G
<6GHz 5G
mmWave
triggers: marketing; latency for augmented reality, games; enabling massive MIMO
trigger: last drop wire/fiber replacement
LTE-A evolution
LTE-A evolution
direct path: continues to serve tradional mobile BB case. WiFi
802.11n WiFi 802.11ac
WiFi 802.11ad
trigger: LTE control overload; low latency
control & command applications
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Narrowband and IoT: key requirements Not just sensors, but a wide spectrum
Factor Requirements – low end Requirements – high end Range Peak data rate
<100 bits/s UL (e.g. smart metering)
> several Mb/s UL (e.g. security cameras) 10000
Latency >1 s (e.g. smart metering without control)
< 10 ms (e.g. ITS Intelligent Transportation Systems - ITS)
100
Usage <1 event/day (e.g. intrusion alarm)
“continuous” (e.g. security cameras) ∞ Coverage Normal (e.g. outdoor devices) +20 dB (e.g. indoor devices located in
basements) 100
Mobility “none” (stationary devices) “seamless” (e.g. ITS devices) ∞ Device cost “not an issue” <4$ for e.g. smart meters 10
Battery lifetime
“N/A” (e.g. remotely-powered devices)
>10 years (e.g. smart meters) ∞
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Predominance of short packets, today
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 16000
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Packet Size (bytes)
CDF
Light Background: DL Packet Size Distribution
1 818192427282930
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 16000
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Packet Size (bytes)
CDF
Light Background: UL Packet Size Distribution
1 818192427282930
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 16000
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Packet Size (bytes)CD
F
Heavier Background: DL Packet Size Distribution
91013141516172021222331323334353637383956575960
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 16000
0.1
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Packet Size (bytes)
CDF
Heavier Background: UL Packet Size Distribution
91013141516172021222331323334353637383956575960
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 16000
0.1
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Packet Size (bytes)
CDF
Gaming: DL Packet Size Distribution
234567
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 16000
0.1
0.2
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1
Packet Size (bytes)
CDF
Gaming: UL Packet Size Distribution
234567
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 16000
0.1
0.2
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1
Packet Size (bytes)
CDF
Interactive Content Pull: DL Packet Size Distribution
474849505152535455
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 16000
0.1
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1
Packet Size (bytes)
CDF
Interactive Content Pull: UL Packet Size Distribution
474849505152535455
Data taken from 3GPP TR 36.822 v1.0.2
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Burst profile from live LTE network in 2014 Combined uplink and downlink
100 102 104 106 108 10100
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1burst size in bytes
log(burst size(bytes))
prob
abili
ty <
abs
ciss
a
dormancy timer = 2 secdormancy timer = 5 sec
100 101 102 103 104 105 1060
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1number of frames/burst
log(number frames/burst)
prob
abili
ty <
abs
ciss
a
dormancy timer = 2 secdormancy timer = 5 sec
BURST SIZE NUMBER OF PACKETS PER BURST
SMART PHONE TRAFFIC CAN ALSO BENEFIT FROM SHORT BURST OPTIMIZATIONS
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So: Why do we need a new & unified 5G radio interface?
• When we talk about M2M subscribers, these are not just devices. Applications on smartphones are already generating a large amount (30%) of short bursty traffic. Similarly M2M gateways using cellular uplink will contribute to the total amount of narrowband traffic. M2M subscribers = # devices × # applications/device
Ultra-broadband already acts as a channel for part of the ultra-narrowband traffic.
• The ultrabroadband track will require the integration of many different networks. In order to steer traffic quickly, seamlessly, without impacting the end-user, an efficient control system need to be present.
Efficient low latency narrowband communications benefit ultra-broadband as well.
5G
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Key 5G Technologies
vRAN
Radios
vEPC
vIMS
mm Wave
Massive MIMO
New radio I/F
Policy
Conn- less
SDN
Consistent experience Ultra low latency
Ultra-narrowband
Small Cells
Ultra-broadband
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5G Radio: UF-OFDM
• Designed to meet new requirements
- Contention based access for connection-less services
- In-band optimization to devices and services - Higher capacity
• Universal Filtered OFDM (UF-OFDM)
- New filter stage applied per sub-band - Cyclic prefix replaced by filter time response - More tolerant to power and timing errors - Reduced guard band requirements - May re-apply huge knowledge base of LTE
processing
[1] F. Schaich, T. Wild, Y. Chen, “Waveform contenders for 5G - suitability for short packet and low latency transmissions” , VTC’14 [2] 5GNOW deliverable D3.2
Filter added to OFDM
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Frequency spacing in subcarrier steps
Rel. p
ower
[dB] UF-OFDM
CP-OFDM
Several tens of dB improved out-of-band radiation
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5G Radio: Two new radio interfaces plus LTE and WLAN
5G Driver LTE Evolution WLAN Low band
(< 6 GHz) High band (>20 GHz)
Ultra broadband
MIMO, HetNet and CoMP features
Multi-RAT and Boost Higher spectrum efficiency
Peak bitrates Massive capacity
Consistent experience
Capacity Capacity Contention access Massive capacity
Ultra low latency
Short packet Low latency
Scheduled low latency service
Ultra narrowband
MTC features (to bridge gap until 5G)
Short range access Contention access
Role LTE coverage 5G capacity extension
Capacity extension 5G coverage Specialized services
5G capacity extension in dense areas
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Deployment Scenario
Macro Small cell (indoor)
Small cell
4G
4G
2/3G Legacy 5G <6GHz
5G <6GHz
4G
4G WLAN
5G <6GHz
1. LTE with carrier aggregation and dual-connectivity to small cell layer
2. New 5G carrier on macro layer: Wide area coverage for new services, improved efficiency and control
3. Coverage extended on small cell
4. Massive capacity: Additional 5G carriers above 20 GHz on small cells
5. Additional 5G carriers in cellular bands on macro and small cells
5G >20GHz
5G >20GHz
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NGMN: http://www.ngmn.org/work-programme/5g-initiative.html
GSMA: https://gsmaintelligence.com/research/?file=141208-5g.pdf&download
ITU-R IMT-2020: http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-R/study-groups/rsg5/rwp5d/imt-2020/Pages/default.aspx
3GPP: http://www.3gpp.org
5G-PPP: http://5g-ppp.eu
Alcatel-Lucent: http://www.alcatel-lucent.com/solutions/lte-to-5G