6 August 2009

Buffalo DistrictPlanning Conference

Flood Plain Management 2050

Gilbert F. WhiteGilbert F. White

ASFPM Foundation Forums

ASFPM Foundation Forums

• The First Assembly of the Forum, September 2004, "Is The 1% Chance Flood Standard Sufficient?"

• The Second Assembly, November 2007, "Floodplain Management 2050"

In White's 1942 dissertation -He iterated eight ways for

humans to adjust to flooding:

In White's 1942 dissertation -He iterated eight ways for

humans to adjust to flooding: 1. Elevation2. Flood Abatement (watershed management3. Flood Protection (levees, channels, etc.)4. Emergency Measures5. Structural Alterations (floodproofing, codes)6. Land use (zoning)7. Relief (public or private)8. Insurance (indemnification)

The Second Gilbert F. White National Flood Policy Forum The Second Gilbert F. White National Flood Policy Forum •Theme: Floodplain Management 2050•Held at George Washington University, Washington, D.C., December 6-7, 2007•Attended by 92 invited nationally and internationally known experts in resource management; engineering; environmental sciences; planning; risk analysis; the law; building and construction; emergency management; finance; communication; transportation; and policy analysis

Drivers of Change at Work Today That Affect Floodplain Management Drivers of Change at Work Today

That Affect Floodplain Management • Demographic Drivers•Exploding population in the United States (fastest-growing country on the planet except for India and Pakistan); up to 460 million by 2050

• People are moving into high-risk areas, such as along the coasts • We will see more intense development of all types to meet the needs and demands of our largest population• In 2030, there will be 106.8 billion square feet of new development in the United States, about 46% more than existed in 2000.

Drivers of Change at Work Today That Affect Floodplain Management Drivers of Change at Work Today

That Affect Floodplain Management • Climate Change• Climate is changing, bringing increased flood risk - more highly variable weather, stronger storms, and sea level rise in many places in the United States

• Environmental Degradation • The accumulated impacts of decades of wasteful land use and mining of water-related resources is tipping the balance against environmental equilibrium

Drivers of Change at Work Today That Affect Floodplain Management Drivers of Change at Work Today

That Affect Floodplain Management

• Shifts in Governance• People expect governments at all levels to do more, yet they shrink from personal responsibility• Governments have more to do, with less money• "The federal budget of the future could be almost entirely consumed by entitlements and payment on the national debt"

Drivers of Change at Work Today That Affect Floodplain Management Drivers of Change at Work Today

That Affect Floodplain Management • Other Drivers• We are reaching the end of the design life of much of our national infrastructure - roads, bridges, stormwater systems, dams, levees, water facilities• Science and technology are tending to outstrip the ability of the public and policy makers to understand and make appropriate decisions

Where Will We Be in 2050 If Business-As-Usual Prevails? Where Will We Be in 2050 If Business-As-Usual Prevails?

• Flood losses will be horrific• Ecosystem degradation will worsen• All hope of sustainable communities will be lost• Quality of life will be diminished

Where We Could Be in 2050Where We Could Be in 2050

• We could see land and water as precious resources, so that the natural and beneficial functions, of floodplains, wetlands, and coastal area are protected• Natural mitigation of flooding could take place continually and naturally• All new development could be designed and built to have no adverse impact on flood levels, sedimentation, erosion, riparian or coastal habitat, or other community-designated values• The market could strongly favor sustainable development, so that floodprone construction rarely occurs

ACTION GUIDELINES

• Avoidance of floodprone and/or ecologicallysensitive areas should be axiomatic. • Move communities or portions thereof that are in high flood risk.

• No adverse impacts.

• Move critical facilities out of flood plains.• In all future projects, long term objectivesmust be an integral component. Any short term objections must support the long term objectives.

• Preserve and restore NBF.

1. Make Room for Rivers, Oceans, and Adjacent Loads

• Reform all Federal programs that fund, subsidize, or promote development or redevelopment in flood plains.

• Federal agencies should adhere closely to E.O. 11988 and 11990

• Full actuarial insurance rates that are fully commensurate with the actual risk should be implemented. Some areas are too hazardous to insure.

2. Reverse Perverse Incentives in Government Programs

• National priority to reclaim lost riparian and coastal resources

• Increase recognition for NBF.

• No building zones in high hazard areas in coastal and riverine flood plain.

3. Restore and Enhance the Natural, Beneficial Functions

of Riverine and Coastal Areas.

• A National Flood Risk Management Policy is needed to provide consistent direction across all programs dealing with flood mitigation and flood recovery.

• Congressional "bail out" funding to provide recovery and rebuild to those that did not have flood insurance or who live in or have property in flood plains should end.• Consider changing the water resources Federal interest focus from economic development to sustainability

4. Generate a Renaissance in Water Resources Governance

Focus on nonstructural alternatives first rather than today's common practice of structural alternatives first.

• The 100-year standard is no longer appropriate. 500-year minimum standard for urban areas.

• No more 100-year levees

• Consider flood plain regulation and flood insurance in areas "protected" by levees.

4. Generate a Renaissance in Water Resources Governance

• A thorough, nationwide examination of water sources related risk is critical.

• All identification of flood risks and resources should be based on future conditions.

• Flood risk maps must be current and accurate

• Areas "protected" by flood risk reduction measures must have residual risk fully conveyed.

5. Identify Risks and Resources and Communicate at Public and

Individual Levels

• Flood risk communications must be a highest priority in terms of funding and done on an annual basis at a minimum. It must be done at all levels.

• Capitalize on advances in technology to communicate risk and the fragility of water resources.

• Need a nationwide inventory of flood prone structures and risk.

5. Identify Risks and Resources and Communicate at Public and

Individual Levels (cont.)

• Mandatory all hazards insurance for all insurable properties based on full actuarial risk.• Promote individual and community responsibility to reduce risk.• Incentives need to be provided to communities in the form of reduced project cost share if those communities are proactive in reducing flood risk beyond the national standard.• Responsibility for the flood risk and damage for flood plain development rests with the developer, the individual, and the land use decision making authority.

6. Assume Personal and Public Responsibility

Year 2050

What Will The Headlines Be?

• Great Flood of 2050 - Horrific damage and deaths

• Huge amount of funding needed to recover but none available.

Business As Usual Scenario

• Great Flood of 2050 - No damage, no deaths

• Disaster fund remains untapped

Achieving Minimum Flood Risk in 2050

Nonstructural Measures

Are a Vital Key

U.S. Army Corps of EngineersU.S. Army Corps of Engineers

National Nonstructural National Nonstructural Flood Proofing Flood Proofing

Committee Committee

U.S. Army Corps of EngineersU.S. Army Corps of Engineers

National Nonstructural National Nonstructural Flood Proofing Flood Proofing

Committee Committee