Social Indicators Research for Arctic Communities (SIRAC)
Matthew Bermana
The 2016 Alaska Native Population Data Conference 12 May 2016
Anchorage, Alaska
aInstitute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, [email protected]
The Arctic Environment Is Changing Rapidly
• Changes in ecosystem services?– Local observations
• How are arctic people adapting?– Observe changes in social indicators
US Census Bureau Data:Dominant Role in the Observing System for Arctic Residents
• Provides key indicators for four of six indicator domains identified by AHDR/ASI– Material well-being: income and employment– Health and demography: population change– Education: educational attainment– Cultural integrity: language use
• Includes all regions and all communities• Only systematic source of information on indigenous people
Changes in Survey Design After 2000 Census
• From decadal survey to annual survey• Large pulse sample to smaller continuous sample • Consequences for reporting results for small areas
– Most indicators still available;; however,– Substantial loss of precision
– Reported as 5-year moving averages
Community and regional differences that were easily distinguished in 2000 are now more difficult to observe...
Median Income for Households with American Indian or Alaska Native Householder, Adjusted for Inflation
Source: US Census and American Community Survey
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
2000 2005-09 2006-10 2007-11 2008-12 2009-13 2010-14
2014 Dollars per household
Nome Census Area North Slope Borough Northwest Arctic Borough
... especially for rural Alaska places, even fairly large communities.
Median Income for Households with American Indian or Alaska Native Householder, Adjusted for InflationSource: US Census and American Community Survey
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
$110,000
2000 2005-09 2006-10 2007-11 2008-12 2009-13 2010-14
2014 Dollars per household
Nome city, Alaska Barrow city, Alaska
One cause of the high margins of error is that the Census Bureau has to estimate the population for non-census years.
Note the fluctuating North Slope Borough population estimate!
Population in Households with American Indian or Alaska Native Householder
Source: US Census and American Community Survey
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2000 2005-09 2006-10 2007-11 2010 2008-12 2009-13 2010-14
Population in households
Nome Census Area North Slope Borough Northwest Arctic Borough
For communities with mixed populations (i.e., rural Alaska regional centers), the uncertainty about the size of the Alaska Native population can be quite high.
Population in Households with American Indian or Alaska Native Householder
Source: US Census and American Community Survey
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2000 2005-09 2006-10 2007-11 2010 2008-12 2009-13 2010-14
Population in households
Nome city Barrow city Kotzebue city
Problem: Only about half of ACS households reported receiving any “other income,” the category that should contain the PFD, in 2014.
Monitoring the effects on Alaskans of closing the state budget gap:
Can we observe from ACS data how changes in PFD distributions affect income and poverty?
No other income
Some other income Total
No interest, rent, dividends 30% 31% 60%Some interest, rent, div. 22% 18% 40%Total 51% 49% 100%
Percent of households reporting unearned income
Other income Other income Interest, rent,All households HH w. other inc. and dividends
Variable Effect p Effect p Effect pChildren under 15 211$ 0.03 (3)$ 0.98 (418)$ 0.06Adults 1,216$ 0.00 1,282$ 0.00 1,126$ 0.00Constant term (92)$ 0.68 1,772$ 0.00 1,154$ 0.02
Data from 2014 ACS Public Use Sample
Regression equations for how amount of income reported varies with household size
No questions in the ACS ask about income of children under 15. Child PFD payments (as well as dividends from ANCSA corps. that enrolled descendents) are systematically missing in the data.
BEA Local Area Personal Income estimates specifically include PFD distributions as a component of government transfer income.
Unfortunately, BEA estimates have their own issues: i.e., North Slope Borough residence adjustment miscalculated.
Alternate source of income data: BEA Local Area Personal IncomePer capita personal income Rank in
2012 2013 2014 StateUnited States 44,266$ 44,438$ 46,049$ --Alaska 52,269 51,259 54,012 --Aleutians East Borough 33,000 35,272 36,946 27Aleutians West Census Area 49,244 50,081 53,010 13Anchorage Municipality 59,575 58,001 61,134 5Bethel Census Area 36,331 35,243 37,075 26Bristol Bay Borough 52,623 56,600 59,603 6Denali Borough 58,082 57,079 64,631 3Dillingham Census Area 45,598 46,947 50,212 16Fairbanks North Star Borough 50,997 49,079 51,792 14Haines Borough 74,754 74,742 78,115 1Hoonah-Angoon Census Area 42,981 45,863 49,585 17Juneau City and Borough 56,162 54,855 57,033 9Kenai Peninsula Borough 47,731 48,012 50,760 15Ketchikan Gateway Borough 56,342 55,730 57,876 8Kodiak Island Borough 52,751 50,697 53,792 12Lake and Peninsula Borough 46,067 44,087 46,787 18Matanuska-Susitna Borough 42,789 42,683 44,820 21Nome Census Area 42,088 41,559 44,413 22North Slope Borough 32,361 32,340 34,061 28Northwest Arctic Borough 41,740 42,014 44,965 20Petersburg Borough 50,923 55,272 58,426 7Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area 34,723 35,940 37,684 25Sitka City and Borough 54,986 57,225 61,204 4Skagway Municipality 70,096 74,312 77,937 2Southeast Fairbanks Census Area 37,988 37,692 39,605 24Valdez-Cordova Census Area 55,072 52,559 56,571 10Wade Hampton Census Area 27,588 26,491 28,762 29Wrangell City and Borough 39,936 39,855 43,230 23Yakutat City and Borough 43,300 44,877 45,364 19Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area 52,686 52,370 54,323 11
Social Indicators Research for Arctic Communities (SIRAC) project
Work underway at Census Center for Economic Studies
• Understand and quantify sources of loss of precision with transition from Census Long Form to the American Community Survey (ACS)– How many valid observations exist for key indicators each year– Determine sample variance due to inter-annual variation – Effect of surveying estimated rather than known population
• Design and test methods for “reanalysis” of reported ACS indicators to reduce margins of error
• Produce publicly available synthetic annual community-level data from reanalysis
Goals:
1. Reduce spatial and temporal errors in small area 5-year moving averages.
2. “Reanalyze” ACS data to produce publicly available synthetic annual community-level data.
3. Fix obvious errors such as missing PFD income
Average Earnings per Person Age 16 and older and Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend AmountSource: Alaska Dept. of Labor and Workplace Development
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Earnings per person, 2014 $
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Alaska PFD, 2014 $
Nome Census Area North Slope BoroughNorthwest Arctic Borough AK PFD
Median Income for Households with American Indian or Alaska Native Householder, Adjusted for Inflation
Source: US Census and American Community Survey
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
2000 2005-09 2006-10 2007-11 2008-12 2009-13 2010-14
2014 Dollars per household
Nome Census Area North Slope Borough Northwest Arctic Borough
Approach: Find independent observations that are highly correlated with census indicators and develop predictive models.
Analogy: Census Bureau’s Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)
Reducing spatial and temporal errors in small area 5-year moving averages
Alternate approach: slowly changing indicators may be trending up or down over time.
Percent American Indian and Alaska Native People Not Speaking English at Home
Source: US Census and American Community Survey
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
2000 2006-10 2007-11 2008-12 2009-13 2010-14
Percent of persons 5 and older
Nome Census Area North Slope Borough Northwest Arctic Borough
Percent American Indian and Alaska Native People with a High School Degree
Source: US Census and American Community Survey
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
85.0%
2000 2005-09 2006-10 2007-11 2008-12 2009-13 2010-14
Percent of persons age 25 and older
Nome Census Area North Slope Borough Northwest Arctic Borough
Stay tuned....
