From Low Growth To NO Growth6 October 2020 | Evan Walker
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GOVERNMENT WAGE BILL CONTINUES TO OUTSTRIP PRIVATE SECTOR
2
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REAL GDP LEVELS IN SOUTH AFRICA ARE POOR
3
GDP will be 5% below pre-recession levels end 2021 Deconstructing the investment-driven GDP drop
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SOUTH AFRICAN UNQUALIFIED AUDITS PER PROVINCE
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Source: Auditor-General South Africa (AGSA)
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SA INC SHOWING NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY
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ABILITY TO MISS LANDMINES BECOMING INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT
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Source: Bloomberg. Price Return (incl. div) 31 December 2015 – 15 July 2020
Worst performing shares on the JSE from 31 December 2015 to 15 July 2020
-120%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
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Pro
perti
es
Stei
nhof
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Brai
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Nam
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PPC
Fortr
ess
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City
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ge H
otel
s
Ham
mer
son
Sun
Inte
rnat
iona
l
Cur
ro
Mpa
ct
Tsog
o Su
n
Blue
Lab
el T
elec
oms
Mas
smar
t
Arro
whe
ad
Hyp
rop
Lew
is
HC
I
Ligh
thou
se
Med
iclin
ic
Atta
cq
Fam
ous
Bran
ds
Hos
pita
lity
Prop
erty
Fun
d
Oct
odec
Inve
stm
ents
Om
nia
Cap
Co
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I REI
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SA C
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Rea
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ate
Woo
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Saso
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36ONE BCI SA EQUITY PORTFOLIO POSITIONING
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TOP 10 EQUITY HOLDINGS %
Naspers 15.2
British American Tobacco 8.3
Prosus 5.9
Sibanye Stillwater 5.8
Impala Platinum 5.4
Anglo American 4.6
Gold Fields 4.0
BHP 3.5
Northam Platinum 2.9
MTN 2.7
Total 58.3
As at 23 September 2020
71,2%
28,8%
RAND HEDGE EXPOSURE
Rand Hedge Domestic (SA Inc)
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RAND PGM BASKET – REACHING NEW HIGHS
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Source: Bloomberg. Chart data from 9 September 2016 – 8 September 2020.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
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POTENTIAL UPSIDE FOR PLATINUM SHARES
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Source: Renaissance Capital
Upside potential to one-year forward consensus earnings if spot prices prevail
87%
76%
63%58%
47%
35%
20%15%
3%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Impala RBPlats Tharisa Sibanye Northam Amplats Gold Fields AngloGold Harmony
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CHINESE TOTAL SOCIAL FINANCING - STILL AT ELEVATED LEVELS
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Source: WIND, Bloomberg, Citi Research. TSF – Total Social Financing.
Monthly TSF Tends (Mn RMB) TSF and Steel Apparent Demand Growth Rate
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CHINESE PROPERTY BOOM HAS RESUMED ITS UPWARD CLIMB
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Source: NBS, Citi Research
China’s Private Property Sales China’s Private Property New Starts
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CONSENSUS EARNINGS IF SPOT COMMODITY PRICES PREVAIL
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Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Renaissance Capital estimates
Upside/(downside) potential to one-year forward consensus earnings if spot prices prevail
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TENCENT – THE ONLY THING THAT SEEMS TO MATTER
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Source: Company data Investec Securities estimates
Deferred revenue vs. earnings - Since reaching scale, deferred revenue has never been stronger
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GOLD - A HEDGE AGAINST CENTRAL BANKERS GONE WILD
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Mar
-200
4
Sep-
2004
Mar
-200
5
Sep-
2005
Mar
-200
6
Sep-
2006
Mar
-200
7
Sep-
2007
Mar
-200
8
Sep-
2008
Mar
-200
9
Sep-
2009
Mar
-201
0
Sep-
2010
Mar
-201
1
Sep-
2011
Mar
-201
2
Sep-
2012
Mar
-201
3
Sep-
2013
Mar
-201
4
Sep-
2014
Mar
-201
5
Sep-
2015
Mar
-201
6
Sep-
2016
Mar
-201
7
Sep-
2017
Mar
-201
8
Sep-
2018
Mar
-201
9
Sep-
2019
Mar
-202
0
FED ECB BOJ
USD
Tril
lion
Central Bank Balance Sheets (USD Trillion)
Source: Bloomberg, 1 March 2004 – 31 August 2020
THANK YOU
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Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (No. 37 of 2002) (“FAIS”) read with Board Notice 80 of 2003:36ONE Asset Management (Pty) Ltd (“36ONE”) is an authorised financial services provider under FAIS (FSP number: 19107). Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futureperformance. Buying and selling of financial products entails risk, please ensure that you are always appropriately advised and aware of all risks involved. No guarantee as to investment valueor performance of any financial product is given or should be inferred.
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DISCLAIMER
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Should a performance fee be applicable in respect of an investment, the performance fees will be calculated and accrue on a daily/monthly basis (depending on whether it is a collectiveinvestment scheme in security or hedge funds), based upon the daily/monthly outperformance, in excess of the benchmark, multiplied by the share rate. Performance fees are paid over to theinvestment manager monthly.
Performance figures quoted in this document are from either Morningstar, Bloomberg, Maitland, Maitland Guernsey, or Sanne (as applicable) as at the date of publication of this document, fora lump sum investment using either NAV-NAV with income reinvested or mandate specific parameters. Such performance figures do not take any upfront manager’s charge into account.
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Actual investment performance will differ based on the initial fees charge applicable, the actual investment date, the date of reinvestment and applicable dividend withholding tax.
Annualised return is the weighted average compound growth rate over the period measured.
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DISCLAIMER
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