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POPULATION R EF ERE N CE BURE A U

March Vol. , No.

n In 2005, 62 million migrants from less developed countries moved to moredeveloped countries.

n The number of international migrants in more developed countries more thandoubled between 1985 and 2005, from almost 55 million to 120 million.

n Those who cross national borders usually move to nearby countries.

Managing Migration:The Global Challengeby Philip Martin and Gottfried Zrcher

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Population Reference BureauThe Population Reference Bureau informs people around the world about population, health, and the environment, and empowers them to use that information to advance the well-being of current and future generations.

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The suggested citation, if you quote from this publication, is: Philip Martin and Gottfried Zrcher, Managing Migration: TheGlobal Challenge Population Bulletin 63, no.1 (2008). For permission to reproduce portions from the Population Bulletin, write toPRB, Attn: Permissions; or e-mail: [email protected].

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Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................

Figure . Origin and Destination of International Migrants, ............................................

Migration in Perspective ...........................................................................................................................

Why People Migrate ..................................................................................................................................

Table . Factors That Encourage Migration by Type of Migrant ................................................

Effects of Globalization..............................................................................................................................

Figure . World Population by Continent, to ..............................................................

Figure . Economically Active Population, to .............................................................

Regional Migration Trends ........................................................................................................................

Figure . Legal Immigration to the United States, to .................................................Table . Immigration Status of Foreigners in the United States

by Category, to ..............................................................................................

Figure . Status of Foreign-Born U.S. Residents, ...............................................................

Table . Foreigners and Foreign Workers in Western Europe, ........................................

Table . Immigration Required to Avoid Population Declinein Europe, to ..............................................................................................

Reducing Unwanted Migration ...............................................................................................................

Box . Refugees and Asylum Seekers.....................................................................................

Remittances ............................................................................................................................................. Figure . Remittances to Less Developed Countries, to ..........................................

Managing Migration ................................................................................................................................

References ................................................................................................................................................

Suggested Resources ..............................................................................................................................

March Vol. , No.

Managing Migration:The Global Challenge

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Managing Migration: The Global Challenge

www.prb.org P B Vol. , No.

About the Authors

Philip Martin studied labor economics and agricultural economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, wherearned his Ph.D. in 1975. He is professor of agricultural economics at the University of California-Davis (UCD), cof the University of Californias Comparative Immigration and Integration Program, and editor of Migration News , amonthly summary of current migration developments.

Martin has published extensively on farm labor, labor migration, economic development, and immigration issues. testies before the U.S. Congress and state and local agencies on these issues, and provides assistance to other coufor which he was awarded UCDs Distinguished Public Service award in 1994.

Gottfried Zrcher is director general of the International Center for Migration Policy Development in Vienna, whis supported by 30 European governments to improve migration management.

Te authors thank Jeanne Batalova and Veronika Bilger for reviewing this publication. TisPopulation Bulletin is basein part on Philip Martin and Jonas Widgren, International Migration: Facing the Challenge,Population Bulletin57,no. 1 (2002).

2008 by the Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved.

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P B Vol. , No. www.prb.org

Te number of international migrants is at an all-timehigh. Tere were 191 million migrants in 2005, whichmeans that 3 percent of the worlds people left their coun-try of birth or citizenship for a year or more.1 Te num-ber of international migrants in industrialized countriesmore than doubled between 1985 and 2005, from almost55 million to 120 million.

However, most of the worlds 6.6 billion people nevercross a national border; most live and die near their place

of birth. Tose who cross national borders usually moveto nearby countries, for example, from Mexico to theUnited States, or from urkey to Germany. Te largestow of migrants is from less developed to more developedcountries (see Figure 1). In 2005, 62 million migrantsfrom developing countries moved to more developedcountries, but almost as many migrants (61 million)moved from one developing country to another, such asfrom Indonesia to Malaysia. Large ows of people alsomove from one industrialized country to another, fromCanada to the United States, for example, and muchsmaller ows move from more developed to less devel-

oped countries, such as people from Japan who work inor retire to Tailand.

Te international community believes that interna-tional migration should be voluntary, and has tried tominimize forced migration, whether motivated by per-secution or economic deprivation at home. Te UnitedNations 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rightsasserts that everyone has the right to leave any coun-try, including his own, and to return to his country.2 However, the right to emigrate does not give migrants aright to immigrate, and most migrants are not welcomedunconditionally into the countries to which they move.

Migration in PerspectiveMigration is the movement of people from one placeto another. As long as humans have wandered in searchof food, they have migrated from place to place. Butinternational migration is a relatively recent development.Only in the early 20th century was the system of nation-states, passports, and visas developed to regulate the owof people across borders.3

International migration is the exception, not the rule.Most people do not want to move away from family andfriends. In addition, governments try to regulate bordercrossings. But international migration is likely to increasein the 21st century because of persistent demographic

and economic inequalities and because many advances incommunications and transportation facilitate mobility.

Figure Origin and Destination of International Migrants, 2005

Sources: United Nations (UN), Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division,International Migration Report (2006); and UN, International Migration 2006 (Wall Chart).

Millions

To more developed countries

To less developed countries

MillionsMigrants from less developed countries

Migrants from more developed countries

To more developed countries

To less developed countries

A Surinamese migrant worker assembles a bouquet at the world ower markein Aalsmeer, Netherlands.

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Borders proliferated over the last century, sometimes plac-ing legal and administrative boundaries between extendedfamilies, friends, and trading partners where there werenone before. Tere were 193 generally recognized nation-states in 2000, more than four times the 43 in 1900.4 Each nation-state distinguishes citizens and foreigners;uses border controls to inspect those seeking entry; and

determines what foreigners can do while inside the coun-try, whether they are tourists, students, guest workers, orimmigrants.

Most countries discourage immigrationthey donot welcome the arrival of foreigners who wish to settleand become naturalized citizens. Some also discourageemigration. Tis was the situation in communist nationsas symbolized by the Berlin Wall, which was used to detercrossing from East to West Germany between 1961 and1989. oday, North Korea continues to prevent its citi-zens from leaving the country.

Five major countries plan for the arrival of immigrants:the United States, which accepted 1.2 million immigrantsin 2006; Canada, which accepted 250,000; Australia125,000; New Zealand 50,000; and Israel 25,000.5 In-dustrialized countries had planned to accept 1.5 millionimmigrants a year. Te number of newcomers arriving inthese countries each year exceeds the number planned,suggesting that many are temporary visitors or unauthor-ized foreigners who nd ways to settle rather than new-comers who enter explicitly as potential new citizens.

Perspectives on the rising number of migrants can beframed by two extremes. At one extreme, organizationsranging from the Catholic Church to the World Bankhave called for more migration, arguing that peopleshould not be conned to their countries of birth bynational borders and that more migration would speed

economic growth and development in both sending anreceiving countries.

At the other extreme, in virtually every industrializedcountry, organizations are demanding sharp reductionsin immigration. In the United States, the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) argues that un-skilled newcomers hurt low-skilled U.S. workers, have

negative environmental effects, and threaten establishedU.S. cultural values. Political parties in many Europeancountries have called for reducing immigration at one tior another. For example, during the 1995 French presi-dential campaign, the National Front in France proposedremoving up to 3 million non-Europeans from France inorder to reduce the number of Muslim residents.6

Amid regular reports of migrants dying in deserts androwning at sea, some experts consider internationalmigration unmanageable, with migrants scaling or tunneling under the walls intended to keep them out. Telate President Houari Boumedienne of Algeria made aappeal for more foreign aid for the Group of 77 develoing countries, warning that if industrialized countries dnot provide more foreign aid, No quantity of atomicbombs could stem the tide of billions who will somday leave the poor southern part of the world to eruptinto the relatively accessible spaces of the rich northerhemisphere looking for survival.7

Te rst step toward making migration manageableis to understand why people migrate. Most people donot want to cross national borders, and even though tnumber of migrants is at an all-time high, internationmigration is still low relative to the 97 percent of the worlds residents who did not migrate. Furthermore,economic growth can turn emigration nations intodestinations for migrants, as it did for Ireland, Italy,and Korea. Te challenge is to manage migration byreducing the differences that encourage people to croborders, while taking into account how investment,remittances, and aid can stimulate economic development and reduce migration pressures in the countriesthat migrants leave.

Why People MigrateInternational migration is usually a carefully consid-ered individual or family decision. Te major reasonsto migrate to another country can be grouped into twocategories: economic and noneconomic (see able 1). factors that encourage a migrant to actually move fall three categories: demand-pull, supply-push, and networks. An economic migrant may be encouraged to mby employer recruitment of guest workers, or demand-pull reasons. Migrants crossing borders for noneconom

Table Factors That Encourage Migration by Type of Migrant

Type of migrant Demand-pull Supply-push Network/other

Economic Labor recruitment(guest workers)

Unemployment orunderemployment;low wages (farmers

whose crops fail)

Job and wageinformation ows

NoneconomicFamily unication(family membersjoin spouse)

Fleeing war andpersecution (dis-placed persons andrefugees/asylumseekers)

Communications;transportation;assistanceorganizations;desire for newexperience/adventure

Note: All three factors may encourage a person to migrate. The importance of pull, push, and net-work factors can change over time.

Source: P. Martin and J. Widgren, International Migration: Facing the Challenge (2002): table 1.

Factors

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reasons may be moving to escape unemployment orpersecution, or supply-push factors.

A worker in rural Mexico may decide to migrate to theUnited States because a friend or relative tells him of a job. In this case, the availability of higher wage jobs is ademand-pull factor. Te same worker may not have a reg-ular job at home or may face debts from a family mem-

bers medical emergency, and these supply-push factorsalso encourage emigration. For this worker, a network offriends and relatives already played a role by providinginformation on jobs and wages in the United States. Tisnetwork and others pave the way at many points duringthe migration process. Networks encompass everythingfrom moneylenders who provide the funds needed to paya smuggler for help crossing the border to employers orfriends and relatives at the destination who help migrantsnd jobs and places to live.

Demand-pull, supply-push, and network factors rarelyexert equal pressure in an individual migration decision,and their importance can change over time. Generally,demand-pull and supply-push factors are strongest atthe beginning of a migration ow, and network factorsbecome more important as a migration stream matures.

Te rst migrant workers are often recruited, beginningthe migration ow. In the 1940s, for instance, the U.S.government sent recruiters to rural Mexico to ll jobs onU.S. farms. Migrants returned with savings, encouragingmore people to seek U.S. jobs and fueling unauthorizedmigration. After this migration stream had been estab-lished, network factors ranging from settled friends andrelatives to the expectation that men, particularly youngones, should go north for opportunity sustained migra-tion between rural Mexico and rural America after theMexico-U.S.Bracero program ended in 1964. A similarprocess played out in Western Europe: After governmentsstopped recruiting urks and other southern European workers from 1973 to 1974, more arrived to unify fami-lies or to seek asylum.

One of the most important noneconomic motivations forcrossing national borders is family unication. In such cases,the immigrant in the destination country is a demand-pullfactor for family migration. Spouses and children join theimmigrant rst and may be followed by parents and brothersand sisters, in so-called chain migration.

Globalization has made people everywhere aware ofconditions and opportunities abroad. ourism has be-come a major industry, as people cross national borders toexperience new cultures, different weather, or the wondersof nature. Many young people nd a period of foreignstudy or work experience enriching. In some cases,former colonies have become independent nations, buttraditional migration patterns persist, with a continuing

ow from India and Pakistan to the United Kingdom andfrom the Philippines to the United States.

Immigration policies aim to facilitate wanted migration,such as tourism, and to deter unwanted migrants, includ-ing those who arrive on tourist visas and do not depart asscheduled. However, it is often hard for inspectors at portsof entry to distinguish between, for instance, a legitimate

tourist and a potential unauthorized worker. Most coun-tries require visas from foreigners wishing to enter andmaintain consulates abroad to screen potential visitors todetermine if they are truly tourists or students who intendto return home. At many U.S. consulates around the world, most applicants for tourist visas are rejected.

Effects of GlobalizationGlobalization has increased links between countries, asevidenced by sharply rising ows of goods and capitalover national borders and the growth of international andregional bodies that regulate such movements. However,controlling the entry and stay of people is a core element ofnational sovereignty, and ows of people are not governedby a comprehensive global migration regime. Most nation-states do not welcome newcomers as immigrants, but almostall of the industrialized or high-income countries have guest worker programs that allow local employers to recruit andemploy foreign workers. Tese countries also attract signi-cant numbers of unauthorized or irregular migrant workers.

Most of the worlds people are in developing countries,as is most population growth. Te worlds population, which reached 6 billion in October 1999, is growing by

1.3 percent or 80 million a year, with 97 percent of thegrowth in developing countries. In the past, signicantdemographic differences between areas prompted large-scale migration. For example, Europe had 21 percent ofthe worlds almost 1 billion residents in 1800 and the Americas had 4 percent. When there were ve Europeansfor every American, millions of Europeans emigrated toNorth and South America in search of economic oppor-tunity as well as religious and political freedom.

Will history repeat itself? Africa and Europe haveroughly equal populations today, but by 2050, Africais projected to have three times more residents (see

Figure 2, page 6). If Africa remains poorer than Europe,the two continents diverging demographic trajectoriesmay propel young people from overcrowded cities such asCairo and Lagos to move to Berlin and Rome.

wo types of economic differences encourage inter-national migration: inequality between countries andinequality within a country. Te worlds almost 200nation-states have per capita incomes that range from lessthan $250 per person per year to more than $50,000, a

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difference that provides a signicant incentive for people,especially young adults, to migrate for higher wages andmore opportunities.

Uneven geographic distribution in the growth of the worlds labor force is another dimension of economicinequality between nation-states that adds to internationalmigration pressures. Te worlds labor force of 3.1 bil-lion in 2005 included 600 million workers in the moredeveloped countries and 2.4 billion in the less developedcountries (see Figure 3). Almost all labor force growth isprojected to be in the lower-income countries: Te workforce in these countries is projected to increase by about425 million between 2005 and 2015, while the labor forcein higher-income countries is projected to remain stable.

Income inequality within a country may also contributeto international migration. In lower-income countries, 40percent of workers are employed in agriculture, a sector in which workers earnings are often lower than average. Lowfarm wages and incomes provide an added incentive forfarm workers and farmers to migrate to urban areas, where

wages, incomes, and opportunities are better. Tis migra-tion is one reason the urban share of the worlds populationsurpassed 50 percent for the rst time in 2008.8

Industrialized countries had great migrations off theland in the past, providing workers for expanding factories,fueling population growth in cities, and adding to emi-gration pressures. Similar migrations are underway todayin countries from China to Mexico, and this rural-urbanmigration has three implications for international migra-tion. First, ex-farmers and farm workers are most likely to

accept 3-D (dirty, dangerous, difficult) jobs inside theircountries or abroad. Second, rural-urban migrants oftenmake physical as well as cultural transitions, and many the transition as easy abroad as at home. Many Mexi-cans, for example, nd adapting to Los Angeles as easynavigating Mexico City. Tird, as rural-urban migrants geone step closer to the countrys exits, it is usually easier

obtain visas and documents for legal migration in the cior to make arrangements for illegal migration.Demographic and economic differences encourage

migration, but it takes networks or links between areasto support actual moves. Migration networks includecommunication factors that enable people to learn aboopportunities abroad, the migration infrastructure thatactually transports migrants over national borders, andthe rights regime that allows them to remain abroad.Tese networks have been shaped and reinforced by thrmajor transformations in the past half-century: the communications, transportation, and rights revolutions.

Te communications revolution helps potential mi-grants learn about opportunities abroad. Te best infor-mation comes from migrants established abroad, sincethey can provide family and friends with understandabinformation. Cheaper communications help migrantsquickly transmit job information and advice on how tocross national borders. For example, friends and fam-ily in rural Mexico may hear about California farm jobbefore people living in nearby cities with unemploymerates of more than 20 percent hear the news. Meanwhilms and television programs depicting life in high-income countries may encourage people, particularly tyoung, to assume that migration will inevitably lead toeconomic betterment.

One major benet of the transportation revolution habeen the declining cost of travel. With todays relativelow transportation costs, traveling anywhere in the wolegally typically costs less than $2,500. Getting smugginto a country may cost up to $20,000. Most studies sugest faster payback times for migrants today than in thpast, so that even migrants who pay high smuggling fecan usually repay them within two or three years.

While the communications and transportation revolutions help migrants to learn about opportunities and tocross national borders, the human rights revolution afftheir ability to stay. After World War II, most indus-trialized countries strengthened the constitutional andpolitical rights of people within their borders to prevenrecurrence of fascism, and most granted social or eco-nomic rights to residents in their evolving welfare stat without distinguishing between citizens and migrants.

As migration increased in the 1990s, some Euro-pean countries and the United States began to roll

Figure World Population by Continent, 1750 to 2050

*Projected.

Source: United Nations, The World at Six Billion (1999): table 2.

*

Oceania North America Latin America & Caribbean Africa Europe Asia

Billions

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back socioeconomic rights for migrants in an effort tomanage migration. For example, in the early 1990s,more than 1,000 foreigners a day applied for asylum inGermany. Te government distributed them throughoutthe country and required local communities to providehousing and food. But, when Germans discovered thatmore than 90 percent of these foreigners did not need

protection, there was a backlash that included attacks onforeigners. After World War II, many European governments put

liberal asylum provisions into their postwar constitutionsto prevent another situation in which refugees perishbecause other countries return them to a country thatpersecutes them, as happened in Nazi Germany. Withthe strain caused by increased migration, the Germangovernment responded in three ways. First, it requiredasylum seekers from countries such as urkey to obtainvisas, allowing prescreening. Second, it imposed nes onairlines that brought foreigners to Germany without visasand other documents. Tird, Germany and other Euro-pean Union (EU) countries agreed to make it difficult forforeigners from safe countries or who transited throughsafe countries en route to Germany to apply for asylum.9 In this way, the constitutional protection of asylum wasmaintained, but making it harder to apply reduced thenumber of asylum applicants.

Te United States pursued a similar strategy of restrict-ing migrant rights in order to reduce the number ofmigrants entering the country. Te 1993 North Ameri-can Free rade Agreement (NAF A) was expected tospeed up economic and job growth in Mexico, reducingMexico-U.S. migration. Instead, Mexico-U.S. migrationsurged during a recession, prompting California votersin 1994 to approve Proposition 187, which would havedenied unauthorized foreigners access to state-fundedservices. A federal judge stopped implementation ofProposition 187, but some of its provisions were includedin 1996 federal immigration reforms.

Proposition 187 led to a national debate over im-migrant numbers and rights, especially access to socialassistance. President Bill Clinton argued that the numberof needy migrants should be reduced in order to con-tinue giving legal immigrants access to welfare benets.Employers argued that a better solution would allowimmigration to remain at high levels but reduce accessto social assistance.10 Employers won, so immigrationremained high and welfare benets were curbed. Butbenets to poor children and elderly immigrants wererestored during the economic boom of the late 1990s.

Balancing migrant numbers and migrant rights is amajor challenge. Countries with the highest shares ofmigrants in their labor forces, such as the oil-exporting

countries in the Persian Gulf, tend to extend few rights tomigrantsit is very hard for a guest worker to win immi-grant status and naturalize in Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. Countries with relatively fewer guest workers, such as Sweden and other Scandinavian coun-tries, tend to grant more rights to foreigners. Te trade-off is apparent in World rade Organization negotiations, where some developing countries argue that their migrantservice providers should not have to earn the minimum wage in the destination country. Requiring payment of aminimum wage, they reason, will reduce the number ofmigrant workers.11

Regional Migration TrendsMost people who cross national borders do not go far, somost international migration occurs within regions. Tissection reviews the most notable migration ows in themajor world regions.

North and South AmericaTe North American migration system includes the worlds major emigration and immigration destinations, whether dened in absolute numbers or by per capitarates: 300,000 to 400,000 Mexicans move each year tothe United States, and Canada aims to increase its popu-lation by 1 percent a year through immigration. Canadaand the United States represent about 5 percent of the worlds population but receive over half of the worldsanticipated immigrants. Emigration rates from manyCaribbean nations are high. Jamaica, with 2.7 millionresidents, loses about 27,000 a year, 1 percent of its

Figure Economically Active Population, 1985 to 2015

*Projected.

Source: International Labor Ofce,Laborsta Database (http://laborsta.ilo.org/, accessedJan. 22, 2008).

Less DevelopedMore DevelopedWorld

.

.

..

.

. . . . .

.

.

.

..

* *Billions

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population. Tousands more leave as temporary workersfor Canada and the United States.12

CanadaCanada is an exception among industrialized countries, withhigh levels of immigration, generous social welfare programs,

and signicant public satisfaction with immigration poli-cies.13 Many analysts attribute this satisfaction to Canadaspoint system, under which foreigners seeking to immigrateare assessed on the basis of their education, youth, workexperience, and knowledge of English or French.

Canada offers three major avenues of entry for legalimmigrants:n Economic or independent skilled workers and business

investors (55 percent of the 251,600 immigrants in2006).14

n Family unication (28 percent).n Refugees (20 percent).

Immigration to Canada peaked between 1895 and 1913, when 2.5 million newcomers arrived in a country that hada 1913 population of 7 million. Canadas white only im-migration policy, which favored entries from Europe and theUnited States, ended in 1962.

Almost half of Canadas immigrants are from Asia. In2006, the leading countries of origin were China with 13percent of the immigrants, India (12 percent), and the Phil-ippines (7 percent).15

In 1967, Canada developed a point system to assessforeigners wishing to immigrate. Under the point sys-tem, foreigners seeking to enter Canada as skilled worers must earn at least 67 points on a 100-point scale.16 Education is worth up to 25 points (for a masters degror doctorate); English and/or French prociency is worth up to 24 points; and work experience can add up

to 21 points. Tose ages 21 to 49 get 10 points, thoseemployed legally in Canada with a temporary workvisa get 10 points; and up to 10 points are awarded foradaptabilityfor having studied or worked in CanadaTis point system and negligible illegal migration allowthe Canadian government to micromanage immigratioto spur economic growth.

Canada also admits temporary visitors or nonimmi-grants, persons expected to leave after a period of wortourism, or business. Chapter 16 of the North AmericaFree rade Agreement permits 64 types of Canadian,Mexican, or U.S. professionals, including accountantsengineers, and lawyers, to work in another NAF A cotry by showing an offer of employment, a professionacredential, and a passport. Most NAF A professionalmigrants are Canadians employed in the United States

Te Commonwealth Caribbean and Mexican Agri-cultural Seasonal Workers Program is often praised as model for employing guest workers. About 20,000 gue workers are admitted each year, and most work on Onio fruit and vegetable farms. Te selection criteria, as was Canadian winters, encourage returns at the end of thgrowing season. Canadas guest worker programs are aexpanding to include more nonfarm industries, providicaregivers as well as construction and other workers foprovinces with a booming energy sector.

United StatesFor its rst 100 years, the United States welcomed foreiers to settle a vast country. Beginning in the 1880s, qualtive restrictions barred certain types of foreigners: prosttutes, workers who arrived with contracts that tied thema particular employer for several years, and Chinese. In1920s, quotas set a ceiling on the number of immigrantsaccepted each year.

Amendments to U.S. immigration legislation in 196shifted preferences from those wishing to migrate fromcountries in northwestern Europe to those who hadrelatives in the United States and those desired by U.Semployers. Te origins of immigrants were not expecteto change, but they did (see Figure 4). In the 1960s, haof U.S. immigrants were from Latin America and Asiabetween 2000 and 2005, 73 percent were from theseregions.17 Illegal immigration began rising in the 1970srose faster after immigration reforms in 1986, and was

Figure Legal Immigration to the United States, 1820 to 2005

Note: IRCA adjustments refer to the amnesty provisions of the Immigration Reform and ControlAct of 1986, under which 2.7 million undocumented foreign U.S. residents obtained legal immigrantstatus.

Source: DHS, Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, 2006 (www.dhs.gov, accessed Jan. 28, 2008).

Major sendingregions:

Northernand

WesternEurope

Southern andEastern Europe

Western Europe Asia andLatin

America

Immigrationphase:

Frontierexpansion Industrialization Immigration pause

Post-immigration

Number of immigrants(thousands)

,

,

,

,

,

IRCAlegalization

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the rst major immigration issue debated in Congress inthe 21st century.

Foreigners enter the United States through a front doorfor legal permanent immigrants, a side door for legaltemporary migrants, and a back door for the unauthor-ized (see able 2). About two-thirds of legal immigrantsare family-sponsored, which means that family members

in the United States asked the government to admit theirrelatives. Tere are no limits on the number of immigrantvisas available for immediate relatives of U.S. citizens,and 580,000 were admitted in 2006. Tere is a cap onthe number of immigrant visas available to relatives ofpermanent residents and more distant relatives of U.S.citizens. Only 222,000 were admitted in 2006, resultingin long waits for visas. For example, in 2008, Mexicanspouses of U.S. immigrants will need to wait six years forimmigrant visas, and adult brothers and sisters in Mexicoof U.S. citizens face a 13-year wait.18

Legal temporary migrants are foreigners who come to theUnited States to visit, work, or study. Tere are no limitson most types of temporary visitors; the United States is willing to accept more than the 30 million tourists andbusiness visitors who arrived in 2006. emporary foreignstudents and workers are more controversial. After theterrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the U.S. governmentrequired foreign students to undergo personal interviewsbefore receiving visas to study in the United States and topay a fee to support a database that tracks them while theyare studying there.

Guest workers receive visas that tie them to a U.S. employ-er and specify how long they can stay. H-1B visa holders,for example, have at least a college degree and ll jobs that

normally require a college degree. Tey can stay up to sixyears and adjust to regular immigrant status if their U.S.employer deems them uniquely qualied to ll the job.

Te number of guest workers admitted doubled in the1990s and almost doubled again to nearly 400,000 in2004, as Congress raised the cap at the request of high-tech rms.19 Te annual cap on the number of H-1B

visas available has now reverted to 65,000, but employers want far more. Critics of the H-1B program say that theeasy availability of H-1B visas has discouraged Ameri-can citizens from studying and working in science andengineering elds.20

Unauthorized foreigners are persons in the UnitedStates in violation of U.S. immigration laws. Demo-grapher Jeff Passel estimated 11.5 million unauthorizedforeigners in the United States in 2006, with the num-ber increasing by 770,000 a year.21 Of the 38.1 millionforeign-born U.S. residents, 34 percent were naturalizedU.S. citizens, 35 percent legal immigrants and temporaryvisitors, and 31 percent unauthorized (see Figure 5). Overhalf of the unauthorized foreigners entered the UnitedStates by evading border controls, while 45 percent en-tered legally but did not leave when required.22

MexicoMost Latin American countries send more people abroadthan they receive as immigrants. Mexico is Latin Amer-icas major emigration country, sending up to 500,000people (half of its net population increase) to the UnitedStates. Most made unauthorized entries. Mexico is alsoa transit country for Central Americans en route to theUnited States.

Figure Status of Foreign-Born United States Residents, 2006

Source: J. Passel, U.S. Immigration Trends: A Focus on U.S. Agriculture and Califor-nia (2008 presentation).

Unauthorized%

Temporary legal %

NaturalizedU.S. citizens

%

Legal permanentresidents%

Table Immigration Status of Foreigners in the United States,by Category, 2004 to 2006

Category2004

(thousands)2005

(thousands)2006

(thousands)Legal immigrants 958 1,122 1,266

Immediate relatives of U.S. citizens 418 436 580Other family-sponsored immigrants 214 213 222Employment-based 155 247 159Refugees and asylees 370 460 381Diversity and other immigrants 99 83 88Estimated emigration 308 312 316

Legal temporary migrants 30,781 32,003 33,667Pleasure/business 27,396 28,510 29,929Foreign students (F-1 visas)* 613 621 694Temporary foreign workers* 676 726 821

Illegal immigrationApprehensions 1,264 1,291 1,207Removals or deportations 189 203 Unauthorized foreigners** 770 770 770

*Excludes their spouses and children.**Annual average based on estimated unauthorized entries between 2000 and 2006.

Sources: DHS, 2006 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics: tables 6, 26, and 35; and J. Passel, U.S.Immigration Trends: A Focus on U.S. Agriculture and California (2008 presentation).

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Te Mexican and U.S. governments have taken severalsteps to reduce Mexico-U.S. migration. NAF A loweredtrade and investment barriers between Canada, Mexico,and the United States, and one hoped-for side effect wasfaster economic and job growth in Mexico that wouldreduce Mexico-U.S. migration.

In fact, workers displaced in Canada and in the United

States tended not to migrate to Mexico, but some ofthe Mexicans displaced as a result of freer trade mi-grated to the United States. Mexico-U.S. migration wasaccelerated in the mid-1990s by an economic crisis inMexico and in the late 1990s by an economic boom inthe United States.

In 2000, Mexican President Vicente Fox made improv-ing conditions for Mexicans in the United States his topforeign policy priority. Calling Mexican migrants heroesfor their remittances, Fox asked the U.S. government toapprove broad immigration reform in 2001: the legaliza-tion of unauthorized Mexicans, a new and large-scaleguest worker program, cooperation to reduce border vio-lence, and an exemption for Mexico from the U.S. cap onthe number of immigrant visas available for each country.Shortly after Fox discussed these proposed changes withPresident Bush, the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001,prompted tighter immigration rules.

Central America, the Caribbean, and South AmericaTe seven countries of Central America, with 40 millionresidents, sent few immigrants to the United States untilcivil wars erupted in the mid-1980s. Fighting displacedtens of thousands of Guatemalans, Nicaraguans, andSalvadorans, many of whom found their way to theUnited States. Te U.S. government initially grantedasylum to Nicaraguans, who were eeing a governmentthe United States opposed, but not to Guatemalans andSalvadorans, who were eeing governments the UnitedStates supported. Resulting lawsuits eventually allowedmost Central Americans in the United States an oppor-tunity to become immigrants.23 Natural disasters, suchas Hurricane Mitch in Honduras and Nicaragua in 1998and earthquakes in El Salvador in 2001, led the U.S.government to grant unauthorized Central Americans inthe United States temporary protected status so theycould work legally and send home remittances to help inrebuilding.

Te 15 independent Caribbean nations and dependen-cies have 40 million residents and some of the worldshighest emigration rates. Te largest four are Cuba,the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica. At least10 percent of those born in these countries now livein the United States. For example, there are 1 millionCuban-born U.S. residents, and Cubans continue to

arrive as legal immigrants as well as illegally in smallboats. Under the wet-foot, dry-foot policy, if Cubansare intercepted at sea, they are returned to Cuba, but ifthey reach U.S. land, they can stay as immigrants. MoCuban immigrants have settled in South Florida, whertheir business and political success have helped turn Mami into a gateway to Latin America.24

Dominican immigrants are concentrated in New York City, and network ties are so strong that half of thresidents of the Dominican Republic have relatives in United States.25 Haiti shares the island of Hispaniola wthe Dominican Republic. Fleeing the poorest countryin the Western Hemisphere, Haitians migrate to theneighboring Dominican Republic as well as to the UniStates.26 In order to reduce the outmigration of Haitianthe U.S. government threatened military interventionin 1994 to restore to power the elected president, Jean-Bertrand Aristide. Aristide regained the presidency, buthe economy continued to ounder, prompting someHaitians to continue to attempt the 720-mile trip by boto Florida.

Jamaicans have been migrating to the United Kingdoand the United States for decades, both as temporary workers and immigrants.

oday, some descendents of Europeans and Japanese who emigrated to South America are returning to theirancestral countries of origin. For example, economicturmoil in Argentina prompted some of the descendanof immigrants from Italy and Spain to move to thesecountries, and several hundred thousand ethnic JapaneBrazilians and Peruvians have moved to Japan. Colomand Ecuador are major sources of migrants to Spain, aever-strengthening networks promise more emigrantsfrom these countries.

EuropeEurope has traditionally been a source of immigrants, with over 60 million people leaving between 1820and 1914.27 War and the creation of new nation-statesprompted migration within Europe during the rst halfof the 20th century, including the exchange of Greeksand urks in the 1920s and the migration of Germans t

West Germany after World War II. Many also migratedbetween overseas provinces and their colonial powers,such as Algeria and France, and between colonies andmother countries, such as India and Pakistan and theUnited Kingdom.

Western European nations such as France and Germrecruited guest workers in the 1960s to ll jobs producgoods for export. Te need for foreign workers, rst froItaly and other southern European countries and laterfrom countries that ranged from Morocco to urkey, w

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supposed to be short-lived. However, with undervaluedcurrencies spurring investment by Europeans and Ameri-cans, employers from Volkswagen to Renault asked formore guest workers, and governments complied. Someguest workers settled and formed or unied families, lead-ing to the aphorism: Nothing is more permanent thantemporary workers.28

From 1973 to 1974, guest worker recruitment stoppedin the wake of a recession attributed to oil price hikes.However, European governments did not force guest workers to leave, even if they lost their jobs and werecollecting social welfare benets. Instead, France andGermany offered departure bonuses to encouragesettled migrants who lost their jobs to leave, but mostmigrants knew that economic conditions were even worseat home and thus elected to stay. European nations todayare struggling to integrate these guest workers and theirchildren. High unemployment rates among these foreignresidentsoften twice the overall ratemake many Eu-ropeans reluctant to see immigration rise.

In 2007, the EU comprised 27 of the more than40 countries of Europe, and about two-thirds of Europes730 million people. A core principle of the EU is freedomof movement, meaning that an EU national may travelto another EU member state and live, study, or work onan equal basis with native-born residents. For example, aFrench worker who applies for a job at Volkswagen in Ger-many must be treated just like a German applicant, andcan complain if a private employer discriminates in favor oflocal workers. Public-sector jobs, however, can be restrictedto residents born in the country.

Relatively few EU nationals move from one countryto another, although an increasing number of northernEuropeans are retiring in southern European countriessuch as Spain and Portugal. More young people arestudying outside their country of citizenship as curriculaare standardized and teaching in English spreads. TeEU added 10 member states in Central Europe in 2004,and Bulgaria and Romania joined in 2007. However, theold EU-15 countries, such as France and Germany,that earlier recruited guest workers and got unanticipatedsettlers, have been reluctant to allow Poles, Czechs, andRomanians freedom of movement to seek jobs.

Most foreigners in EU countries are from outside theEU, from countries such as Morocco, the former Yugosla-via, and urkey. Some of these non-EU countries, includ-ing Croatia and urkey, could become EU member states, which would give their nationals freedom-of-movementrights immediately or after a transition period. Fears oftoo much migration have complicated urkeys accessionnegotiations. urkey applied for EU entry in 1987, wasrebuffed in 1989, and has reapplied.

If allowed entry, urkey, a country of 74 million, wouldbe the most populous EU member state by 2015, whena growing urkey would surpass a shrinking Germany.

urkeys high unemployment rate also raises concern thata possible new wave of migrants might prove hard to em-ploy if urkey were to join the EU. Some 2 million urks worked in Western European countries in the 1960s

and 1970s, and many stayed. oday, about 3.5 millionurks live in Western Europe, two-thirds in Germany.Tese urks, their children, and grandchildren have highunemployment rates, and many have not learned Ger-man. Fears that urkish-speaking ghettos could becomea source of Islamic fundamentalism complicate urkeysbid to join the EU. On the other hand, many urks whomigrated to northern Europe have become successful,opening businesses that employ Germans and gettingelected to local, state, and federal offices.

Te EU Commission believes that opening new chan-nels to work in Europe could further discourage illegalmigration. It has proposed a blue-card program under which highly skilled non-EU foreign professionals, suchas computer programmers from India and health care workers from Africa, could enter a European country, work, and eventually settle.

Both the commission and individual countries aredeveloping mobility partnership agreements withparticular countries that send migrants. Under theseagreements, a country such as Senegal agrees to policeits harbors to discourage migrants from leaving in smallboats for Spains Canary Islands, and Spain admitsseveral thousand Senegalese to work legally for a yearor two. Spain and Italy have signed mobility partner-ship agreements with countries ranging from Albaniato Senegal, and the EU opened a job center in Mali in2007 to provide information on jobs available to legal workers in Europe. More Africans want to migrate thanthere are legal jobs available for them in Europe, so it isnot clear if the agreements and job centers will add to orcut illegal migration.

Te EUs approach to a common immigration policyis illustrated by its rules governing foreigners settledin a particular EU country and border-free travel. EUnationals can move to any other EU country to live and work, but non-EU nationals cannot move from one EUcountry to another until they have been a legal residentfor at least ve years. For example, urkish residents ofGermany cannot move to France until they have lived inGermany legally for at least ve years.

In 1999, the Amsterdam reaty required that newEU member states adopt border control rules thatallow freedom of movement across internal bordersbetween EU member states. Tese states must also

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follow a common set of rules for checks at bordersbetween EU and non-EU states. Te treaty effectivelyexpanded the free-travel zone established between theBenelux Economic Union (Netherlands, Belgium,Luxembourg), Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portu-gal, Greece, Austria, Denmark, Finland, and Sweden,under the 1985 Schengen Agreement and the 1990Schengen Convention. Te agreement led to a com-mon system for issuing visas and a database thatincludes information on people that the EU membercountries want to exclude.29 Ireland and the UnitedKingdom, already EU members in 1999 and not signa-tories of the Schengen agreements, still enforce bordercontrols with other EU member states.

Germany had the most foreign residents of any EUmember in 2005, some 6.8 million, followed by France with 3.3 million (in 1999), the United Kingdom with 3million, and Italy and Spain with 2.7 million each (seeable 3). Luxembourg had the highest percentage of

foreigners among residents40 percentfollowed bySwitzerland with 20 percent and Austria with 10 percent.

Te European population is aging and shrinking. TeEU today has four workers for each retiree. By 2050, theratio is projected to be two workers per retiree. In orderto nance the retirement of such a large cohort of retirees,EU countries will have to reduce pension benets orencourage more people to work longer. Other alternativesare to increase the number of workers, either by increas-ing fertility or immigration. Most European countriesmake payments to families with children, and these poli-cies are credited with keeping fertility near replacement

level (2.1 children per woman, on average) in France aScandinavia. Other European countries are increasingchild payments in a bid to boost fertility.

Immigration would have to be very high to stave offpopulation decline in countries such as Italy (see ableTe UN Population Division estimated the number ofimmigrants that various countries would have to admit

maintain their 1995 populations, labor forces, and ratioof younger to older persons.Te Big Four EU countries (France, Germany, Italy,

and the United Kingdom) received about 88 percent ofthe EUs immigrants in 1995. o maintain their 1995populations at current fertility rates, immigration woulhave to triple, from 237,000 a year to 677,000 a year;immigration to Italy would have to increase over 42 timits mid-1990s level. o maintain their 1995 labor forcethe Big Four would have to increase immigration to 1.million a year, and to save social security or maintainthe ratio of persons 18 to 64 years old to persons 65 anolder, immigration would have to increase 37-fold, toalmost 9 million a year, including 2.3 million a year toItaly.

Opinion polls suggest that most Europeans do not wcome more immigration.30 EU nations currently receive300,000 to 500,000 legal newcomers a year, includingreturning citizens, family members of settled foreignerguest workers, and asylum applicants. In addition, up 500,000 unauthorized foreigners enter the EU annuallythough not all remain as residents. Any suggestion to icrease current immigration ows or legalize unauthoriforeigners tends to produce strong political oppositionfrom EU nationals.31

Opposition to immigration and legalization of unau-thorized immigrants is also strong in Russia, the mostpopulous European country with 142 million residents Although the population in Russia is shrinking by abo700,000 a year, most Russians do not welcome immigrtion as a way to stop the decrease. Ease of movementamong the Commonwealth of Independent States (CISthat were part of the Soviet Union and higher wages inRussia draw migrants from CIS to Russia. Workers froMoldova and ajikistan earn up to 10 times more in costruction and service jobs in Moscow and other Russiacities than they would at home. Responses to this migrtion stream have included both anti-migrant movemenand efforts to legalize migrants.

Asia Asia, home to 60 percent of the worlds people, is a msource of immigrants for countries in North America.People also migrate within Asia, usually as guest workexpected to leave after two years. Tai workers migrate

Table Foreigners and Foreign Workers in Western Europe, 2005

Foreignpopulation

(thousands)

Percentof total

population

Foreignlabor force

(thousands)

Percent oftotal labor

forceAustria 802 10 418 12Belgium 901 9 435 9Denmark 270 5 109 4France 3,263 6 1,456 5Germany 6,756 9 3,823 9Ireland 259 6 102 6Italy 2,671 5 1,479 6Luxembourg 181 40 196 63Netherlands 691 4 288 3Norway 222 5 159 7Spain 2,739 6 1,689 8Sweden 480 5 216 5Switzerland 1,512 20 830 21United Kingdom 3,035 5 1,504 5

Note: Data for foreign population in France are for 1999. Data for foreign labor force in Ire-land, 2002; Italy, 2003; and Sweden, 2004.

Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, International Migration

Outlook (2007): tables A.15 and A2.3.

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to aiwan to ll construction jobs, for example, andFilipinos work as domestic helpers in Hong Kong andSaudi Arabia. Signicant rural-urban migration also oc-curs within countries. In 2001, 130 million Chinese livedoutside the places they were registered. Most had movedeast from villages in the interior to cities and coastalprovinces.32

Policy reforms in the mid-1960s in Canada and theUnited States eased entry for Asian professionals. Tey were joined in the United States by 1 million Southeast Asian refugees after the Vietnam War ended in 1975. Asians continue to emigrate to traditional immigrationcountries, and many go abroad to study, with some set-

tling there after graduation. Asia includes some of the worlds most rapidly agingnations and leading countries of emigration. In the fu-ture, migration may match labor demand in one country with supply in another. However, Asian nations vary widely in their policies toward migrants.

Japan and Korea Japan and South Korea are homogenous and largelyclosed societies where most low-skilled foreign workershave been students and trainees or unauthorized entrants. Japan has debated whether to open itself to unskilled

foreign workers, but has not yet done so, while Koreaintroduced a migrant-worker system in 2004. Japans 2005 census reported 770,000 foreign workers,

or 1.3 percent of the labor force. Te largest group is Ko-reans who have been living in Japan for decades, followedby 240,000 descendants of ethnic-Japanese emigrantsto South America. Tese Portuguese-speaking Japaneseare concentrated in the small factories that often supplyparts to oyota and other major rms. Te second-largestgroup is mostly Chinese trainees, 140,000 in 2007, with

three-year contracts that tie them to a particular employerand often pay them only half the minimum wage. Finally,there are foreign professionals, including Americans working for Japanese multinationals and Filipina en-tertainers. An estimated 200,000 unauthorized foreign workers live in Japan.

Te number of Japanese ages 15 to 64 (workingage) was 85 million in 2005, but is expected to fall to72 million by 2025. Japan has shifted much of its pro-ductive capacity abroad to lower labor costs. o stabilizethe population and labor force, Japan is debating whetherto open itself to immigrants, to admit guest workers who would be expected to leave after several years, or

to persuade Japanese workers to work longer and moreproductively.Like Japan, South Korea introduced foreign workers as

trainees to ll jobs in small and mid-sized rms offeringso-called 3-D jobs, which are dirty, dangerous, and dif-cult. However, high broker fees and sometimes abusiveconditions led to runaways, since unauthorized workerscould earn more than legal trainees. In 2004, the Employ-ment Permit System began to treat migrants who enterKorea legally with a work contract as workers entitled tothe minimum wage. Many of the unauthorized migrantsalready in Korea were unwilling to return to their coun-

tries of origin, pay broker fees and learn Korean, andreturn legally, so 200,000 were still unauthorized amongthe 910,000 foreigners in Korea at the end of 2006.

Taiwanaiwan began to import migrant workers to help con-

struct high-priority infrastructure projects in 1990,including highways and subways. Migrants soon spread tofactories and later to private households as caregivers. ByMay 2007, the number of foreign workers in aiwan hit a

Table Immigration Required to Avoid Population Decline in the European Union, 2000 to 2050

Immigrants,1995

(thousands)Migrants

(thousands)Multiple of 1995

immigrationMigrants


immigrationMigrants


immigrationEU (15 countries)** 270 949 4 1,588 6 13,480 50Big 4 EU 237 677 3 1,093 5 8,884 37

France 7 29 4 109 16 1,792 256Germany 204 344 2 487 2 3,630 18Italy 6 251 42 372 62 2,268 378United Kingdom 20 53 3 125 6 1,194 60

Other EU (11 countries) 33 272 8 495 15 4,596 139United States 760 128 0 359 0 11,851 16

*Migrants needed to maintain 1995 population ratio of persons ages 15-64 to those ages 65 or older.**The EU-15 consists of Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

Source: United Nations, Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Aging Population? (www.un.org, accessed May 7, 2001).

1995 population

Average annual number of migrants required from 2000-2050 to maintain:

1995 working-age population Population support ratio*

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record 347,000, and half were in service jobs. As foreign workers moved from one-time infrastructure projects toproviding care for the elderly and children, the govern-ment promise of a natural end to migrant employment was lost. Migrants are entitled to at least aiwans mini-mum wage of N $15,840 (US$480) a month in 2007,but employers may deduct up to N $4,000 a month for

room and board, and most do.Most of aiwans migrants are from Tailand, the Philip-pines, and Vietnam. Tey often complain about the highfees brokers charge for arranging employment. Te maxi-mum fee should be about a months wages for each yearof a workers contract, but many migrants report payingmuch more, up to 30 percent of what they expect to earnin fees and interest charges. Because of these fees, which arededucted from the migrants pay, some migrants can earnmore as unauthorized workers, so they run away from theemployer to whom they have been assigned.

South and Southeast AsiaTe Philippines is the major labor exporter in Asia. According to the Philippine government, there are 83million Filipinos at home and 8 million abroad; they re-mit, or send home, $1 billion a month, equivalent to 10percent of the countrys gross domestic product (GDP).In recognition of the importance of migrants and theirremittances to the economy, the Philippine president wel-comes returning migrants at Christmas in aPamaskongHandog sa OFWs (Welcome home overseas foreign workers) ceremony.

One million Filipinos leave the country to work eachyear, including about 75 percent who ll jobs that rangefrom domestic helper to driver to construction worker incountries from Saudi Arabia to Canada. Te remaining250,000 leave the country to work on the worlds ships.

Over half of the migrants leaving the Philippines are women, and some are vulnerable to abuse in the privatehouseholds in which they work. Legislation now re-quires the government to protect migrants abroad. Also,in 2007, a new program required a minimum wage forFilipinas abroad.

Most migration in Asia involves workers moving fromone country to another in the region for temporaryemployment. Migration of Asian workers closer to homeis exemplied by the migration of more than 1 millionIndonesian workers to Malaysia and more than 1 mil-lion Burmese to Tailand. In these cases, workers movefrom a poorer to a richer neighboring country, with allthe countries involved classied as developing. Many ofthese migrants are unauthorized despite periodic effortsto legalize and manage these migrant worker ows.

oday, the governments in both Malaysia and Tailand

are adopting stricter policies, with Malaysias paramitary force RELA checking for unauthorized migrantsand some provincial governments in Tailand restrictinthe movement of migrants and their right to use cellphones.33

Te Asian nancial crisis of 1997 and 1998 beganin Tailand, when foreigners stopped lending money.

Unemployment rose sharply. o open up jobs for Tais,the Tai government announced a crackdown on unau-thorized foreign workers. Te effort to substitute Taisfor Burmese workers largely failed, as exemplied in milling. Tailand is a major rice exporter, and most ofthe workers who carry 100 kilogram bags of rice frommills to trucks are Burmese migrants. After the government stopped allowing Burmese to work in rice mills i1998, the Tai workers who replaced them complainedthat the bags were too heavy. Te government suggestedreducing the rice bags to 50 kilograms. Mill ownersrefused, and the Tai government allowed migrants fromBurma, Cambodia, and Laos to continue working in rimills and other economic sectors.

Most Asian nations assert that they are not countriesimmigrationmost do not invite foreigners to settleand some do not welcome guest workers. Singapore anHong Kong are the exceptions. Both encourage the immigration of professionals and 30 percent of Singapor workers are foreigners.

Singapore welcomes foreign professionals and theirfamilies as settlers, but rotates unskilled migrant workin and out of the country. Less-skilled migrants may nobring their families, and their employers pay a signi-cant levy or tax on migrant wages to encourage them thire Singaporean workers if they are available. Femalemigrants are subject to pregnancy tests and sent home they become pregnant; marrying a Singaporean citizendoes not guarantee a low-skilled migrant the right tosettle in Singapore.

Hong Kong, the nancial and supply-chain hub formainland China, includes many professionals, both native- and foreign-born, who hire domestic helpers, usufrom the Philippines and Indonesia. Tese domestics wpaid at least the minimum wage of HK$3,480 (US$44a month in 2006, and given free room and board.34

India is both a source of migrantssending millionsmigrants abroad for every kind of job, from informatiotechnology specialists and doctors and nurses to con-struction workers and laborersand a major receiver omigrants from Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Nepal. One-siof the workers from the Indian state of Kerala are belito be working abroad, and their remittances help to givthe 32 million residents in Kerala higher-than-averagelevels of education and health care.35

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Middle EastTe Middle East, which stretches from Western Asia toNorth Africa, has witnessed some of the worlds largestpopulation and labor ows in the past 50 years.

After oil prices rose in the 1970s, workers fromBangladesh to Egypt migrated to the Gulf states to llthe jobs created by higher oil revenues. After oil price

hikes from 1973 to 1974, Gulf oil exporters turned toforeign contractors and workers to build infrastructureprojects such as roads and bridges. Migrants from Southand Southeast AsiaIndians, Pakistanis, Filipinos, andIndonesianscontinue to dominate the private-sector work forces of these exporters. Te demand for laborhas shifted from construction to services, and from mento women. Despite efforts to nationalize Gulf workforces by prohibiting foreigners from lling some jobs,foreigners ll 90 percent or more of private-sector jobs.

By 2005, the Gulf Cooperation Council (Kuwait,Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United ArabEmirates) had 13 million foreigners among 36 millionresidents, including 6.5 million foreigners among the 25million residents of Saudi Arabia. In part because thesecountries discourage women from working, fertility ishigh; half of the native-born population is under 18;and labor forces are growing by more than 3 percent ayear, raising unemployment among young citizens. Inthe past, oil-rich governments guaranteed jobs to native-born residents, but rapid population growth has madethis policy unsustainable.36 Instead, Saudi Arabia andother oil exporting countries have required that onlysome jobs be lled by the native-born.

Israel welcomes Jews to immigrate under the law ofreturn. Immigration to Israel increased rapidly after1989 with the opening of borders in Eastern Europeand the demise of the Soviet Union. Some 200,000 im-migrants arrived in 1990, a one-year surge of 4 percentover Israels population of 5 million residents. Many ofthe Jews who immigrated to Israel were well-educatedprofessionals who helped to turn Israel into a high-techcenter. Some then emigrated to the United States andGermany.

Israel occupied the West Bank and Gaza after wars

in 1973 and 1976, and allowed Palestinian residentsfrom these areas to commute to jobs in Israel. In the late1980s, more than 100,000 Palestinians commuted dailyto jobs in Israel. During the intifada that began in thelate 1980s, Israel limited the number of commuting Pal-estinians to reduce terrorist incidents and began to allowmigrants to enter from Tailand, Romania, and othercountries to ll jobs once held by Palestinians.

AfricaIn 2006, Africa had one-seventh of the worlds popu-lation, one-fourth of the worlds nation-states, andone-quarter of the worlds 10 million refugees.37 Manynational borders in Africa were drawn by colonial gov-ernments, so that nomadic tribes that continued theirtraditional migrations became international migrants

after independence. Te tribal structure of many Africansocieties means that neighboring African countries some-times host refugees from each other. For example, thereare Mauritanian refugees in Mali, and Malian refugees inMauritania.

In 1994, Africa witnessed one of the worlds largestrefugee movements in recent times, as 2 million Rwan-dans left their country. Some 500,000 mostly ethnic utsiresidents were killed in a genocide organized by the Hutugovernment. When the utsi-led rebel army defeated thegovernments military forces, Rwandas leaders ed, andencouraged Hutus to ee with them to avoid retaliation.Many of the Hutus later returned home, but in 2006,about 10 percent of the worlds refugees remained in theGreat Lakes region in eastern Africa.38

raditionally the richest country in its region, South Africa is a major destination for migrants south of the Sa-hara Desert. More than 200,000 migrants from Lesotho,Swaziland, and Mozambique were recruited to work inSouth African mines in the 1980s. Tese migrants werehoused in barracks and rotated in and out of the coun-try. Apartheid ended in 1994, and the government ofNelson Mandela discouraged the recruitment of foreignminers. However, few South Africans wanted to move toremote areas and work in the mines. Instead, machinesreplaced miners.

Te black-majority government was reluctant to deportunauthorized migrants who arrived from neighboringcountries that had sheltered anti-apartheid activists, andat least 3 million arrived between 1994 and 2000.39 Asunemployment among South Africans rose, attacks weremade on foreigners in the cities, and opinion polls sug-gested that one-quarter of South Africans wanted immi-gration stopped. Te South African government contin-ues to grapple with employers asking for easier entry for

professionals, in part to replace those South Africans whoemigrate, as well as the entry of unauthorized foreignersfrom neighboring countries such as Zimbabwe.

OceaniaPacic IslandsOceania is the worlds least populous region, with 34 mil-lion people in 2006, including almost two-thirds in Aus-tralia. Australia and New Zealand welcome immigrantsfrom around the world and permit freedom of movementbetween them under the rans- asman ravel Agreement.

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Te United Kingdom originally shipped criminals to Aus-tralia. Free British and European immigrants also arrived,and immigration peaked during the gold rush of 1851 to1860. Australia encouraged immigration from Europe after World War II, but ended its so-called White Australian im-migration policy in 1971, easing the entry of Asians.

New Zealands immigration history is different. British

settlers made a treaty with indigenous Maori in 1840.Te number of Maori declined because of disease and warfare as the number of European settlers rose. NewZealand admits about 35,000 immigrants a year, increas-ing its population by almost 1 percent.

Both Australia and New Zealand select most of theirimmigrants using point systems that award individu-als points for youth, knowledge of English, skills, andprevious work experience in the country. From 2005 to2006, 17 percent of Australias immigrants were fromthe United Kingdom, followed by 14 percent from NewZealand and 8 percent each from India and China. From2004 to 2005, 33 percent of New Zealands immigrants were from the United Kingdom, followed by China (10percent), and South Africa and India at 7 percent each.40

Australia and New Zealand historically welcomed set-tlers, not guest workers. However, both countries haverecently expanded their temporary-worker programs toadmit both skilled and seasonal workers. Australia offersa visa that allows skilled foreign workers to remain up tofour years. Both Australia and New Zealand have a pro-gram that allows people ages 18 to 30 to work seasonal jobs in agriculture.

Most Pacic islands have relatively few residents, often200,000 to 400,000, and unusual migration issues.Te Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands(CNMI), a U.S. territory that sets its own immigrationpolicies, includes only 44 percent CNMI natives, who areU.S. citizens. Te other residents are guest workers fromChina, the Phillippines, and other Asian countries. TeCNMI government permits Chinese and other rms toestablish garment shops on the island, to import womento sew clothes, and to then send the clothes to the UnitedStates with Made in the USA labels.41

Global warming that causes ocean levels to rise mightlead to emigration from many Pacic islands, includingKiribati, the Marshall Islands, and uvalu. Each of theseisland nations is considering options for emigration.

Reducing Unwanted MigrationMost of the migrants arriving in industrialized countriesare not wanted. Less than half are immigrants who havebeen invited to settle. Unauthorized migration is a majorissue in the United States and many European countries,

prompting many leaders to look for solutions that minmize push factors in sending countries.

Te 30 high-income countries, as dened by the WorlBank, contain one-sixth of the worlds people but pro-duce ve-sixths of the worlds economic output. Most the changes that would speed up development and redunwanted migration lie within the developing countrie

that are the source of most migrants. However, trade,investment, and aid policies of the industrialized natiocan accelerate the narrowing of the demographic andeconomic differences that motivate migration.

Trade and Investmentrade means that a good is produced in one country,

taken over borders, and used in another. Economictheory suggests that if countries specialize in producthose goods in which each has a comparative advantathe residents of all countries that trade will be better Tis means that, if Mexico can produce V sets morecheaply than the United States can, and the UnitedStates can produce corn more cheaply than it can produce V sets, Mexico should produce televisions andsend them to the United States in exchange for corn. this way, Americans get cheaper Vs and Mexicans gcheaper tortillas. With trade accelerating economic an job growth in both countries, less Mexico-U.S. migration would occur.

Migration and trade were substitutes between Europand the Americas.42 For more than a century, Europeansmigrated to North America, until restrictive laws in the1920s almost stopped the ow. When these restrictions were relaxed in the 1960s, European economies wereexpanding more rapidly than the U.S. economy. Tis fagrowth narrowed gaps in wages and incomes and redutransatlantic migration to a trickle. A similar story ofnarrowing wage and income gaps due to freer trade aninvestment explains why emigration from southern Eupean nations such as Italy and Spain slowed in the 197and 1980s, just when Italians and Spaniards won theright to live and work anywhere in the European Union

Te U.S. Commission for the Study of InternationalMigration and Cooperative Economic Development,

which seeks mutually benecial ways to reduce unwanmigration, concluded that expanded trade between th[migrant-] sending countries and the United States is thsingle most important remedy. In fact, trade has expaned rapidly. In 2005, merchandise trade topped $10 tril-lion for the rst time, equivalent to almost one-fourth the worlds $45 trillion GNP.43 Germany and the UnitedStates are the worlds leading exporters of goods, almo$1 trillion each. China is third, with exports worth $76billion in 2005.

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However, when countries become more open to trade,adjustments can displace workers and increase migra-tion. For example, NAF A accelerated the closureof television factories in the United States and theirexpansion in Mexico, and the displacement of Mexi-can corn farmers by U.S. corn. Displaced U.S. workers were unlikely to migrate to Mexico, but some Mexican

corn farmers migrated to the United States. In thiscase, trade stimulated migration, at least in the short tomedium term.

Migration resulting from increased trade may be small-er and may last for a shorter time if foreign investmentaccelerates job growth in the migrant-sending country.Foreign direct investment (FDI) totaled $665 billion in2004, but more than two-thirds went to high-incomecountries, such as when British rms buy U.S. rms.Investments in developing countries go to places where

investors expect maximum prots. China received almosta quarter of the total $211 billion invested in developingcountries in 2004.44 In most developing countries, about

Box Refugees and Asylum SeekersPolitical persecution at home encourages some migrants to crossnational borders. The 1951 Geneva Convention denes a refugee as aperson outside his or her country of citizenship who does not want toreturn owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons ofrace, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, orpolitical opinion. Countries that sign the Geneva Convention pledge

not to refoul or return those recognized as refugees to places wherethey could be persecuted. 1 Most of the worlds 9.9 million refugees in 2006 ed to neighboring

countries, where governments or the United Nations High Commis-sioner for Refugees (UNHCR) can provide temporary assistance. Someof those living in refugee camps are allowed to move to third countriesas immigrants and begin their lives anew. Other foreigners traveldirectly to the country where they would like to start new lives and thenthey request asylum, asking to be recognized as refugees and to begiven immigrant status. 2

Most refugees are from developing countries and move to other de-veloping countries, while most asylum seekers are from less developedcountries and move to more developed countries. In 2006, Pakistanand Iran hosted about 20 percent of all refugees worldwidemostfrom Afghanistan, the top refugee-producing country (see gures). TheUnited States was the third leading host of refugees, and the top verefugee-hosting countries had 40 percent of the total.

The major sources of refugees were Afghanistan and Iraq, a third ofthe total, followed by Sudan, Somalia, and the Democratic Republic of

Congo; these ve countries produced over half of the worlds refugees.Afghani refugees included those who ed the Taliban rule as well asthose who supported the Taliban after the U.S.-led coalition toppled theTaliban government. Iraqis ed ghting that broke out after the U.S.-ledinvasion in 2003. Most moved to neighboring Jordan and Syria. Con-ict between the Muslim north and the Christian south of Sudan, and

between Arab herders and indigenous pastoralists in Darfur, movedrefugees to Chad, Kenya, and other neighboring countries. Similarly, inSomalia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, internal conicts havesent refugees eeing over the last decade. Somalian refugees also edwhen Ethiopia invaded the country in 2006.

The sources of asylum seekers are more diverse. Only two of theve major refugee-producing countries were among the top ve origincountries for asylum seekers with pending cases in 2006 (Iraq andthe Democratic Republic of Congo), and the top ve origin countriesaccounted for only one in ve asylum seekers. Fewer than one-quarterof asylum seekers are recognized as refugees in need of protection,but more are allowed to remain because it is difcult to return them totheir countries of origin.

References. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Statistical Year-book, accessed online at www.unhcr.org/statistics.html, on Jan. , .

. UNHCR,Refugees by Numbers Edition, accessed online atwww.unhcr.org, on Jan. , .

Top 5 Host Countries for Refugees

Source: UNHCR,2006 Global Trends: Refugees, Asylum-seekers, Returnees, InternallyDisplaced and Stateless Persons (www.unhcr.org/statistics.html, accessed Aug.1, 2007).

Top 5 Origin Countries for Refugees

Source: UNHCR,2006 Global Trends: Refugees, Asylum-seekers, Returnees, InternallyDisplaced and Stateless Persons (www.unhcr.org/statistics.html, accessed Aug.1, 2007).

Jordan

Germany

United States

Iran

Pakistan

,

,

,

,

, ,

Dem. Republicof Congo

Somalia

Sudan

Iraq

Afghanistan

,

,

,

, ,

, ,

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$10,000 in foreign investment is associated with onegood job, making it clear that more jobs linked to FDIare created in China than other developing countries.

Even if FDI decreases migration in the long term, itmay increase migration in the short and medium term.Tis might occur for several reasons. Foreign professionalsmay arrive to manage these investments, and job oppor-

tunities may attract workers. Jobs created by FDI mayalso increase internal migration such as migration fromrural areas to cities.

Aid and InterventionOfficial Development Assistance (ODA) funds are givenor lent to developing nations to speed their economic and job growth. In 2005, the Organisation for InternationalCo-operation and Development (OECD) nations thatare members of the Development Assistance Committeeprovided a record $107 billion in ODA. Almost two-thirds of ODA came from ve countries: United States,$28 billion; Japan, $13 billion; and the United Kingdom,Germany, and France, $10 billion each.45

Many appeals have been made to increase aid and toredirect it to promote equitable development. At theUNs Social Summit in Copenhagen in March 1995, theGroup of 77 (130 developing nations) pledged to fol-low a 20-20 distribution formula if they received moreaid. Under this formula, 20 percent of ODA would goto meet basic human needs, such as building and staff-ing schools and hospitals, and governments receiving aid would devote at least 20 percent of their expenditures tobasic human needs.

Instead of the 20-20 formula, the major donors focusedon debt relief. Many developing countries, including some

with corrupt governments, took on external debt to builnew capital cities or launch nonproductive projects. Inteest on these foreign debts eat up an increasing share of gernment revenues. Te Heavily Indebted Poor CountriesInitiative between 1996 and 2006 approved debt-reductipackages for 30 countries, including 25 in Africa.46

rade, investment, and aid takes time to reduce emig

tion pressures and may even increase emigration in theshort run. But these economic policies narrow differenover time and, after wage gaps are narrowed to four toone or ve to one, economically motivated migrationvirtually ceases, especially if economic growth is fastethe poorer country.

Te alternative to slow but steady economic progressis humanitarian intervention, or military intervention thead off emigration. Te United States restored deposedHaitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide to power in1994 in part to stop the exodus of Haitians to Florida.Te U.S. military presence in Haiti cost about $140 million a month, or the equivalent of Haitis annual GDP.

RemittancesMillions of people live outside their country of birth, athey send billions of dollars to their countries of originTese remittances are among the fastest-growing interntional nancial ows.

Formal remittances to developing countries doubledbetween the late 1980s and mid-1990s to almost $60 blion a year, doubled again by 2002, and almost doubleagain to $208 billion in 2006 (see Figure 6). Te total

ow of remittances is actually larger than the formalamount. Some remittances are sent home informally, with friends or relatives or via unregulated transfer agrather than through banks or regulated nancial institutions. In 2006, India received the most remittances ($2billion), followed by Mexico ($25 billion), China ($22billion), and the Philippines ($15 billion).

International organizations such as the World Bank avocate more labor migration to generate more remittanand speed development in the migrants countries of ogin. More migration, this argument runs, generates moremittances and reduces poverty. Remittances can also

have other favorable effects. Trough a multiplier effecmigrants increase spending in their home countries whthey send money back to buy materials and hire worketo improve their housing. Similarly, when migrants masavings deposits in their country of origin, banks can lremittance deposits to provide the funds needed for instructure, business development, and expansion.

Most researchers agree that the best way to increaseremittances is to ensure that migrant-sending countries

Figure Remittances to Less Developed Countries, 2000 to 2006

Source: The World Bank,Migration and Remittances Factbook (http://econ.worldbank.org, accessedJan. 22, 2008).

US(billions)

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have sound fundamental economic policies, including anappropriate exchange rate and a banking system that iscost-efficient and friendly to remitters and recipients.

Te UN held a high-level dialogue on InternationalMigration and Development in September 2006 thatacknowledged the importance of remittances for the de-velopment of migrant countries of origin. One outcome

was the Global Forum on Migration and Development,a non-UN body that brings governments together topromote coherence in the policies each country pursues.One of its goals is to prevent cases in which, for ex-ample, a rich country government provides aid to speeddevelopment but has trade policies that block importsfrom migrant-sending countries. Te hope is that morecoherent policies might lead to matching aid funds formigrant remittances, thereby increasing the develop-ment impact of these remittances. Another possiblepolicy outcome would be new temporary-worker pro-grams providing return bonuses that workers can investupon their return home.

Managing MigrationTe number of international migrantspeople livingoutside their country of citizenshipis at an all-timehigh. Te number is likely to continue increasing becauseof demand-pull factors in receiving countries, supply-push factors in sending countries, and networks thatcreate communications and transportation infrastructuresthat help migrants learn about opportunities abroad andtake advantage of them. Countries that try to manage

migration by making it harder to apply for asylum orrestricting welfare benets may face protests by humanrights advocates.

Every one of the worlds countries participates in theinternational migration system as a destination for mi-grants, a transit country, or an area of origin. Many coun-tries participate in the migration system in all three ways.For example, Mexico sends migrants to the United States,receives Central American migrants, and allows Central Americans transit en route to the Uni

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