9 August 20141QFY15Results Update | Sector: Real EstateSobha Developers Sandipan Pal([email protected]); +91 22 3982 5436 BSE SENSEX S&P CNX CMP: INR424TP: INR570Buy 24,374 7,276 Bloomberg SOBHA IN Equity Shares (m) 98.1 M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 43.3/0.7 2-Week Range (INR) 455/214 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -7/30/16 Financials & Valuation (INR Billion) Y/E Mar 2015E 201 6E 2017E Net Sales 24.3 28.1 32.3 EBITDA 6.4 7.9 9.3 dj PAT 2.5 3.4 4.0 EPS (INR) 25.0 34.8 40.3 EPS Gr. (%) 4.3 39.1 16.0 BV/Sh (INR) 249.3 274.7 304.5 RoE (%) 10.4 13.3 13.9 RoCE (%) 14.7 17.0 18.1 Payout (%) 32.0 23.0 22.3 aluation P/E (x) 17.0 12.2 10.5 P/BV (x) 1.7 1.5 1.4 EV/EBITDA 8.9 7.1 6.1 Div.Yield(%) 1.9 1.9 2.1 P&L beat on higher contractual revenue: Sobha Developers (SOBHA) reported 1QFY15 revenue at INR5.8b (+25% YoY, -8% QoQ) v/s estimate of INR5.1b. Beat in revenue was attributable to higher contribution (40%) from contractual business, while POCM booking from real estate projects stood below expectation. Blended margin stood at 26.3% (v/s est. of 28% and -1pp QoQ, -3.7pp YoY). EBITDA stood at INR1.5b (v/s est. of INR1.4b), +9% YoY, -11% QoQ, while PAT stood at INR553m (v/s est. of INR567m), impacted by higher interest expense. Operational momentum declined in 1QFY15 with no new launches:On the back of no new launches, 1QFY15 pre-sales were weak and declined 20% YoY/QoQ to 0.75msf (INR4.8b) v/s normal velocity of ~INR6b. Sales mix accounted for 70% from Bangalore and ~66% from below INR15m ticket projects (v/s 53% in FY14). Completed projects accounted for 60% of total pre-sales. Maintains FY15 guidance, hints for better 2H:Management maintained INR26b pre-sales guidance despite achieving only 19% in 1Q. It hinted for a stronger 2HFY15 on the back of several launch plans. Management has been focusing strongly on the product mix as per market demand. It has already launched Sobha Arena and plans launches in Pune and Thrissur in 2QFY15. OCF weak, net debt up INR3b QoQ on land outgo: Collections d eteriorated in lin e with weak pre-sales, resulting in operating cash flow at INR0.6b (v/s INR2b QoQ and INR1.2b YoY). FCFE stood negative at ~INR3b, led by INR2.9b of land outgo comprising of Puravankara and Pune land. Net debt stood at INR15.3b (0.65x), up INR3b QoQ, which management targets to reduce to 0.6x by FY15-end. Recent decline aids valuation comfort, Buy with a target price of INR570: Delay in launches and weaker pre-sales impacted operational momentum in recent times. However, management’s efforts to introduce the right product position in upcoming launches are likely to drive pre-sales in 2HFY15. With the recent fall in stock price, SOBHA is trading at 12.2x/10.5x FY16E/17E EPS, 1.5x/1.4x FY16E/17E BV and 7.8x FY16E EV/cash EBITDA. Maintain Buywith a target price of INR570 (10x FY16E cash EBITDA). Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Equity Shares (m) 98.1M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 43.3/0.7
2-Week Range (INR) 455/214
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -7/30/16
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar 2015E 2016E 2017E
Net Sales 24.3 28.1 32.3
EBITDA 6.4 7.9 9.3
dj PAT 2.5 3.4 4.0
EPS (INR) 25.0 34.8 40.3
EPS Gr. (%) 4.3 39.1 16.0
BV/Sh (INR) 249.3 274.7 304.5
RoE (%) 10.4 13.3 13.9
RoCE (%) 14.7 17.0 18.1
Payout (%) 32.0 23.0 22.3
aluation
P/E (x) 17.0 12.2 10.5
P/BV (x) 1.7 1.5 1.4EV/EBITDA 8.9 7.1 6.1
Div.Yield(%) 1.9 1.9 2.1
P&L beat on higher contractual revenue: Sobha Developers (SOBHA) reported
1QFY15 revenue at INR5.8b (+25% YoY, -8% QoQ) v/s estimate of INR5.1b. Beat inrevenue was attributable to higher contribution (40%) from contractual business,while POCM booking from real estate projects stood below expectation. Blendedmargin stood at 26.3% (v/s est. of 28% and -1pp QoQ, -3.7pp YoY). EBITDA stoodat INR1.5b (v/s est. of INR1.4b), +9% YoY, -11% QoQ, while PAT stood at INR553m(v/s est. of INR567m), impacted by higher interest expense.
Operational momentum declined in 1QFY15 with no new launches: On the backof no new launches, 1QFY15 pre-sales were weak and declined 20% YoY/QoQ to0.75msf (INR4.8b) v/s normal velocity of ~INR6b. Sales mix accounted for 70%from Bangalore and ~66% from below INR15m ticket projects (v/s 53% in FY14).
Completed projects accounted for 60% of total pre-sales. Maintains FY15 guidance, hints for better 2H: Management maintained INR26b
pre-sales guidance despite achieving only 19% in 1Q. It hinted for a stronger2HFY15 on the back of several launch plans. Management has been focusingstrongly on the product mix as per market demand. It has already launched SobhaArena and plans launches in Pune and Thrissur in 2QFY15.
OCF weak, net debt up INR3b QoQ on land outgo: Collections deteriorated in linewith weak pre-sales, resulting in operating cash flow at INR0.6b (v/s INR2b QoQand INR1.2b YoY). FCFE stood negative at ~INR3b, led by INR2.9b of land outgocomprising of Puravankara and Pune land. Net debt stood at INR15.3b (0.65x), up
INR3b QoQ, which management targets to reduce to 0.6x by FY15-end. Recent decline aids valuation comfort, Buy with a target price of INR570: Delay
in launches and weaker pre-sales impacted operational momentum in recenttimes. However, management’s efforts to introduce the right product position inupcoming launches are likely to drive pre-sales in 2HFY15. With the recent fall instock price, SOBHA is trading at 12.2x/10.5x FY16E/17E EPS, 1.5x/1.4x FY16E/17EBV and 7.8x FY16E EV/cash EBITDA. Maintain Buy with a target price of INR570(10x FY16E cash EBITDA).
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
P&L beat on higher contractual revenue Sobha Developers (Sobha) has reported 1QFY15 revenue at INR5.8n (+25% YoY,
-8% QoQ) v/s est of INR5.1b. However beat in revenue was attributable tohigher contribution from contractual business, while POCM booking from realestate projects stood below expectation.
Contract business accounted for 40% of revenue mix (INR2.3b v/s INR1.1b in1QFY14) v/s historically 20-30%, which dents the blended margin in 1QFY15which stood at 26.3% (v/s est of 28% and -1pp QoQ, -3.7pp YoY).
EBITDA stood at INR1.5b (v/s est of NR1.4b), +9% YoY, -11% QoQ, while PATstood at INR553m (v/s est of INR567m) impacted by higher interest expense.
Operational momentum dipped in 1QFY15 with no new launch Presales (as reported earlier) was weak, and declined 20% YoY/QoQ to 0.75msf
(INR4.8b) against the average quarterly velocity of ~INR6b. Blended realizationfell 3% QoQ to INR6,389/sf.
Sales mix accounts for 70% from Bangalore project and ~66% (value wise) frombelow INR15m ticket project (v/s 53% in FY14). Presales remained subdued inNCR but improved sequentially in Pune.
Lower presales were led by (1) no new launch in the quarter, and (2) weakerdemand scenario. Completed project accounted for 60% of total presales.
No new launch in 1QFY15 (msf)…
0.7
2.6
3.5
5.1
0.0
1.8
0.2
1.1
0.0
1.10.6
1.1
0.4
3.6
0.0
2 Q F Y 1 1
3 Q F Y 1 1
1 Q F Y 1 2
2 Q F Y 1 2
3 Q F Y 1 2
4 Q F Y 1 2
1 Q F Y 1 3
2 Q F Y 1 3
3 Q F Y 1 3
4 Q F Y 1 3
1 Q F Y 1 4
2 Q F Y 1 4
3 Q F Y 1 4
4 Q F Y 1 4
1 Q F Y 1 5
Source: Company, MOSL
…led weakness in Sobha’s presales run-rate (msf)
0.70.7
0.7
0.9
0.80.9
0.8
0.90.9
1.1
0.9
1.0
0.7
0.9
0.8
2 Q F Y 1 1
3 Q F Y 1 1
1 Q F Y 1 2
2 Q F Y 1 2
3 Q F Y 1 2
4 Q F Y 1 2
1 Q F Y 1 3
2 Q F Y 1 3
3 Q F Y 1 3
4 Q F Y 1 3
1 Q F Y 1 4
2 Q F Y 1 4
3 Q F Y 1 4
4 Q F Y 1 4
1 Q F Y 1 5
Source: Company, MOSL
Quarterly presales lower by 20% of normal INR6b run-rate
3.04.9 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.3 5.3
6.86.0 6.3
5.06.1
4.8
4.55.2
5.5 5.45.7 5.6
5.96.3
6.5 6.36.8 6.6 6.4
1 Q F Y 1 2
2 Q F Y 1 2
3 Q F Y 1 2
4 Q F Y 1 2
1 Q F Y 1 3
2 Q F Y 1 3
3 Q F Y 1 3
4 Q F Y 1 3
1 Q F Y 1 4
2 Q F Y 1 4
3 Q F Y 1 4
4 Q F Y 1 4
1 Q F Y 1 5
Sales value (INR b)Realization ('000 INR/sf)
Source: Company, MOSL
Presales volume mix city wise (%)
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2 Q F Y 1 2
3 Q F Y 1 2
4 Q F Y 1 2
1 Q F Y 1 3
2 Q F Y 1 3
3 Q F Y 1 3
4 Q F Y 1 3
1 Q F Y 1 4
2 Q F Y 1 4
3 Q F Y 1 4
4 Q F Y 1 4
1 Q F Y 1 5
Bangalore Thrissur Coimbatore PuneMysore NCR Chennai Kozhikode
Maintains FY15 guidance, hints for better 2H Management maintains INR26b presales guidance despite achieving only 19% in
1Q. It has hinted for a stronger 2HFY15 on the back of further uptick insentiment and several launches on schedule. Management has been focusingstrongly on the product mix as per market demand.
It has already launched Sobha Arena (~1msf at Kanakapura Road, 69% stake,BSP @INR6,400/sf), and plans to launch in Pune and Thrissur in 2QFY15,followed by launch of Chennai, Cochin (Merine Drive) and a few Bangaloreprojects in 2HFY15.
OCF weak, net debt up ~INR3b QoQ on land outgo Collections deteriorate in line with weak presales, albeit construction spending
in real estate segment remains marginally above recent quarters. It translatesinto operating cash flow at INR0.6b (v/s INR2b QoQ and INR1.2b YoY).
FCFE stood at negative ~INR3b, led by INR2.9b of land outgo comprising~INR1.6b towards 50% payment in Puravankara land, INR0.4b towards Puneland (Kothrud) and balance towards various JDA.
Net debt stood at INR15.3b (0.65x), up INR3b QoQ, which management targetsto bring down to 0.6x with improvement in cash flows led by new launches.
Sobha Developers: an investment profileCompany descriptionSobha Developers (Sobha) was incorporated in 1995and is a leading real estate player in Southern India(total saleable area of 243msf) with a strong presencein Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Kochi, Gurgaon etc. Thecompany has a uniquely backward integrated businessmodel through presence in contractual andmanufacturing segment. It enjoys a strong brand dueto its quality of execution and enviable delivery trackrecord. It has been a preferred partner for Infosys inmany of its marquee assets development. Sobha hasexecuted over 307 projects, comprising a totaldevelopment area of 55msf+.
Key investment arguments
Core markets offer resilience, coupled with marketconsolidation Ability to differentiate, quality and brand aid
comfort in operations Liquidity and cash flow generation strong enough
to drive growth and expansion
Key investment risks Bangalore market saturation and delayed
monetization in new cities
Reinvestment risk due to sub-optimal capitalallocation in land, capex
Recent developments NIL
Valuation and view
Delay in launches and weaker pre-sales impactedoperational momentum in recent times. However,management’s efforts to introduce the right productposition in upcoming launches are likely to drive pre-sales in 2HFY15. With the recent fall in stock price,SOBHA is trading at 12.2x/10.5x FY16E/17E EPS,1.5x/1.4x FY16E/17E BV and 7.8x FY16E EV/cashEBITDA. Maintain Buy with a target price of INR570(10x FY16E cash EBITDA).
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Disclosu re of Interest Statement SOBHA DEVELOPERS LTD Analyst ownership of the stock No
Analyst Certi fic ation The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, orwill be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsiblefor preparation of MOSt research receive compensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.
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Disclosu re of Interest Statement SOBHA DEVELOPERS LTD 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Group/Directors ownership of the stock No3. Broking relationship with company covered No4. Investment Banking relationship with company covered No
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For SingaporeMotilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited is acting as an exempt financial advisor under section 23(1)(f) of the Financial Advisers Act(FAA) read with regulation 17(1)(d) of the Financial
Advisors Regulations and is a subsidiary of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited in India. This research is distributed in Singapore by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited and it is only directedin Singapore to accredited investors, as defined in the Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time.In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited: Ano sh Koppik ar Kadam bari Balac hand ran Email:[email protected] Email : [email protected](+65)68189232 Contact: (+65) 68189233 / 65249115Office Address:21 (Suite 31),16 Collyer Quay,Singapore 04931
