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This book is intended t o exp lain the intelligence responses required for theemerging asymmetric threats to national security. This subjec t is critical nowthat the state is forced t o operate in a complex and uncertain i n t e ~ n a t ~ o n ~ ~e r i v i ~ o n r ~ e ~ ~ t .conomic, social, health, and environmental issues today areas important to national security as border issues and stability have beenin the past.

This book is also intended to be a policy relevant study, rather than anacademic one. I t is aimed a t leaders, decision makers and the worker beeswho occupy the worlds of security, economics, intelligence and policy. Inother words, it aims to support the people who actually have t o get thingsdone.The book will also be useful reading for students a t the undergradiiateand graduate levels aswell as the cit izen whowants to understand thec o -n p ex in e m a t ona 1arena and i t s impact ontheir lives.

T he d e f i n i t i o n o fnational security can nolonger be limited to defending bordersor main ta i n i ~~gnternal stability. Withthe role of the state having expanded and changed, past experiences arc?rendered less valuable. The emerging asymmetric threats .tona tionalsecurity

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are not controllable a t the national level. The risks to national security areoften global in their origin, although the impacts can be localized andcatastrophic. The economic, social and health aspects of the threat to thestate can be every bit as damaging as the conventional state-to-state militarythreats.

The book will focus primarily on the emerging asymmetric threats.Definitions of asymmetric conflict vary, but one useful definition can betaken to refer to threats which are designed to employ an inferior strengthagainst a stronger opponents vulnerabilities to achieve a disproportionateeffect with the aim of undermining the opponents will to win. Natural orman made threats from biological weapons, pandemics and environmental

degradation can begrouped into this area aswell. The response to thissort of threat, from an

~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~ ~~~~~ a ~~~~~~~~~ intelligence point of view,~~~~~~~ i5 similar to that of other

Knowledge is critical indefeating asymmetric

threats. A useful defence in an asymmetric struggle can come only from anund~rstandi~gf the threat and an ability to stop it before it materializes.Power by itself cannot prevail nor can power prevent fear.Over the past 20 years, I have had the privilege to work for a numberof intelligence institutions. Among them have been the Director General ofIntelligence (Canadian Armed Forces), the United Nations Proteclion Forcein Yugoslavia (1 994), the Intelligence Assessment Secretariat of the PrivyCouncil Office of Canada, the War Crimes Section of Citizenship andimmig~ationCanada, the International War Crimes Tribunal for the FormerYugoslavia, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) War Crimes Sectionand the RCMP A Division Integrated National Security Enforcement %mIntelligence related work with the Conventional Forces in Europe lreaty andthe Vienna Document has taken me to five countries in Eastern Europe from

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Th e Rire of Asymmetric Threats, by Kenneth F. McKenzie, Jr., available at: www.ndu.edu/ii?ss/press/QRR..-%OOI / s d c ~ ~ ~ h ~ ~ . h t ~ l .

RISK ASSESMENT AND HORIZON SCANNINGx

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northern Albania to central Russia. Shore time periods were spent with theNational Military Joint lritelligence Centre in the Pentagon, the CanadianSecu r it y Es tab l i shmen t and th e Ne the r l ands In s t i t u te f o r WarDocumentat~on.

This book exists because of support from many other people. My thanksmust go to them. Among them are the head of the Centre of Excellencefor National Security, 5r. Kumar Ramakrishna. He has tolerated my manyeccentricities and supported this project a t all times.

Dr. Amitav Acharya of the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies a tNanyang Technological University has played a major role in creating anacademic atmosphere where ideas can be pu t forward, even if they challengethe boundaries normally imposed on such institutions.

Sir Richard Dearlove KCMG OBE MA was generous in allow ing me to useideas that he had previously published. Dave Snowden of Cognitive Edgedid likewise as did Dr. Kumar Ramakrishna and Dr. Norman Vasu of theCentre of Excellence for National Security. Some sections in the book alsodraw from work that was origi~iallypublished in the RUSI/Janes HomelandSecurity and Resilience Monitor. My thanks must also go to the AssociateResearch Fellows of IDSS' who had aided me along the way: Hoo TangBoon, Yolanda Chin and Ng Sue Chia. Phil Berikoff has been a friend andguide over many years. Others will know who they are: ED., R.W., andC.'H'S.

Colonel Patrick Nathan of th e National Security Coordination Secretariat(Singapore) has also been of inva luab le assistance. Warren Coons and Glennarti in dale of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police played a major role in my

success as well. Gilies Michaud was an operational leader from whom Igained considerable support for my work. Colonel Kent Koebke (UnitedStates Marine Corps -- retired) was a major influence in developing m yintelligence skills as was Major David Declerq (Canadian Arrried Forces -retired). Dr. Munroe Eagles, Dr. David Dewitt, Ds Paul Evans and Dr. RonLandes were also formative influences who taugh t me the values of rigorousand theoretically informed work,--'The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, currently renamed as the 5 Rajaratnam School ofInternationdl Studies

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