7.2 Population Growth

iGCSE Economics

Learning Outcomes

• describe the factors that affect population growth (birth rate, death rate, fertility rate, net migration) and

• discuss reasons for the different rates of growth in different countries

• analyse the problems and consequences of these population changes for countries at different stages of development

• describe the effects of changing size and structure of population on an economy

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The world population reached 1 billion in around 1804 and 2 billion by 1927

By 2010 the world population had reached almost 7 billion and is expected to grow to 9 billion by 2050. Around 90% of all these people will live in countries currently considered as developing

Population Growth

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Let’s see what Hans has to say….

• Watch the video “Population growth box by box’

• Summarise the key points he is making

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What are the main factors that will affect the size of the population within a particular country?

Now let’s see what National Geographic have to say….

• Watch the video‘7 billion National

Geographic’

Key Questions…..• What are they key world trends with regards to population?• What are the key causes of population growth?• Within a country, what factors will affect the following Birth Rates

– Death Rates– Fertility Rates– Net Migration

• What are the benefits of population growth?• What problems can rapid population growth cause in an economy?• How will Developed Economies and Less Developed Economies differ in terms of

the structure of their population including:– Age Distribution– Dependency Ratios – Geographical Distribution– Occupational Distribution

• What problems can an aging population have for an economy?• What factors may cause a gender imbalance in population?• What can be done to reduce population growth?

Video

• Watch the BBC documentary ‘Overpopulated’

• Answer as many of the questions as you can

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FACTORS AFFECTING THE SIZE OF THE POPULATION

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Births

Deaths

Net Migration

Video

• ‘7 million – How did we get so big so fast?’

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births - deaths = natural rate of population growth

What causes population growth?

BIRTH RATES

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Birth rate = births per 1,000 people in a population

Highest birth rates(40 or more births

per 1,000)

Niger, Uganda, Mali, Zambia, Burkino Faso, Ethiopia,

Angola, Somalia, Burundi

Lowest birth rates(Less than 9 births

per 1,000)

Czech Republic, Austria,

South Korea, Singapore, Germany,

Hong Kong, Japan, Monaco

Birth Rates

World average

= 19

Why do birth rates tend to be lower in developed countries and higher in developing countries?

What has caused birth rates to fall in many developed and rapidly developing countries?

• Living standards are rising

•Rising living costs

•Falling fertility rates

• There is increased use of contraception

• There is increased female employment

• People are marrying later in life

Why are birth rates high in many less-developed countries?

• Living standards are poor

• There are high child mortality rates

• Custom, religion and lack of education prevent contraception

DEATH RATES

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Death rate = deaths per 1,000 people in a population

Lowest death rates(Less than 3 deaths

per 1,000)

Sint Maarten, Jordan, Turks and

Caicos Islands, Bahrain, Qatar,

Kuwait, United Arab Emirates

Highest death rates(15 or more deaths

per 1,000)

Angola, Afghanistan, South Africa, Nigeria,

Russia, Ukraine, Chad, Guinea-

Bissou, Lesotho, Central African

Republic

Death Rates

World average

= 9

What affects the death rate within a country?

Factors that affect death rates are:

• living standards

• quality and availability of health care

• natural disasters and wars

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NET MIGRATION

What is the difference between Emigration and Immigration?

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Net Migration

immigration

emigration

Net inward

migration

Net outward

migration

Why do people choose to migrate?What are the benefits/drawbacks of net inward migrationWhat are the benefits/drawbacks of net inward migration

Net inward migration Net outward migration

immigration

emigration

Most cross-border migration involves people of working age seeking employment, higher wages and improved living standards in other countries

• increases working population

• increases demand for housing, schools, health care and other public services

• increases pressure on resources

• reduces working population

• means loss of most skilled and productive labour and entrepreneurs

• causes fall in output and economic growth

Net Migration

Age and sex distribution Occupational distribution

Geographic distribution

STRUCTURE OF THE POPULATION

People in work and who are economically active produce goods and services for those who are not

The dependent population of a country includes the very young, schoolchildren, students, housewives and old-age pensioners

The higher the dependency ratio, the greater the burden on the working population and on scarce resources to support people who are not economically active

Dependency ratios are rising:

•There are high birth rates in less-developed countries

•The school leaving age is being raised in many economies

•There are low death rates and growing numbers of old people in developed economies

Dependency ratio =dependent population

working population

The Dependent Population

In 2010, 11% of the world population was over 60. It is expected to reach 22%, or 2 billion people, by 2050. One in every three people in developed countries will be over 65 by this time.

High death rate

High birth rate and falling child mortality

as health care improves

Low death rate

Low birth rate

Dependency ratios rising due to ageing population

Dependency ratios rising due to increasing numbers of children

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Age and Sex Distribution

The world’s oldest and youngest

Gender imbalance, an excess of males or females, has been observed in a number of countries. Why? Possibly because of:

•wars resulting in many deaths among young males

•violence towards females, driving them from some societies

•Difference in life expectancies between men and women

•sex selection by parents through abortion

•gender-based infanticide (selective killing of children of one sex) •sex-specific inward migration, e.g by male guest workers brought in to work in construction and other heavy industries

NORMAL SEX RATIO

1:1

SEX RATIO AT 85 YEARS

1:1.5

CHINA: SEX RATIO AT BIRTH

1.2:1

Gender Imbalance?

Around half the world’s population currently live in urban areas

This is expected to rise to around 60%, or 5 billion people, by 2030

Rapid growth of cities is depleting resources, and increasing congestion and pollution

Most densely populated Macau peninsula

18,524 people per km2

Least densely populated Greenland

0.026 people per km2

Most densely populated city

Manila, Philippines43,000 people per km2

Population Density

Developed Developing Less-developed

% employment by main industrial sector

More than 80% employed in services

Andorra, Antigua & Barbuda, Gaza, Israel, Luxembourg, UAE, UK, USA

More than 90% employed in agriculture

Angola, Burkino Faso, Burundi, Chad, Lesotho, Niger, Rwanda

Occupational Distribution

HANDLING POPULATION GROWTH

What can governments do if they are concerned about the problems associated with population growth?

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Video

• India – Coping with Population growth

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Research Task• Pick a countryUsing this website….. Do a bit of researchhttp://www.geohive.com/default.aspxResearch and add the following information:• Size of the country’s population from 1950 – 2050• Urbanity of countries from 1950 -2050• HDI index from 1980-2011Current data for:• Gender balance• Occupational distribution by industry sector (Use wikipedia)• Age Structure (if available)• Population Density• Life Expectancy• Children Born per Woman

Then……

• Comment on each of the pieces of data that you have researched

You could include:• Key trends• Whether they were what you expected• What you think are the causes

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