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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts - Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 1 Author Request (To be completed by applicant) - The following author(s) request authority to disclose the following presentation in the MORSS Final Report, for inclusion on the MORSS CD and/or posting on the MORS web site. Scott Mitchell, Michael J. Smith, Javad Sedehi, Mark Henning, Samuel Freund, Stuart Edick, Julie Tittler ITT-AES 2560 Huntington Ave. Alexandria, VA 22303 Phone:_703-682-4372 _ Fax:___703-682-4245 __ Email: [email protected] Original title on 712 A/B: _Optimizing Battlefield Chemical Sensor Layouts __ Revised title:___________________________________________________________________ Presented in (input and Bold one): (WG02, CG___, Special Session ___, Poster, Demo, or Tutorial): This presentation is believed to be: UNCLASSIFIED AND APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE 75th MORSS CD Cover Page UNCLASSIFIED DISCLOSURE FORM CD Presentation Please complete this form 712CD as your cover page to your electronic briefing submission to the MORSS CD. Do not fax to the MORS office. 12-14 June 2007, at US Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD 712CD For office use only 41205
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Page 1: 75th MORSS CD Cover Page 712CD · Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 1 Author Request (To be completed by applicant) - The following author(s) request authority to

Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 1

Author Request (To be completed by applicant) - The following author(s) request authority to disclose the following presentation in the MORSS Final Report, for inclusion on the MORSS CD and/or posting on the MORS web site.

Scott Mitchell, Michael J. Smith, Javad Sedehi, Mark Henning, Samuel Freund, Stuart Edick, Julie TittlerITT-AES2560 Huntington Ave.Alexandria, VA 22303

Phone:_703-682-4372_

Fax:___703-682-4245__

Email: [email protected]

Original title on 712 A/B: _Optimizing Battlefield Chemical Sensor Layouts__

Revised title:___________________________________________________________________

Presented in (input and Bold one): (WG02, CG___, Special Session ___, Poster, Demo, or Tutorial):

This presentation is believed to be:UNCLASSIFIED AND APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

75th MORSS CD Cover PageUNCLASSIFIED DISCLOSURE FORM CD Presentation

Please complete this form 712CD as your cover page to your electronic briefing submission to the MORSS CD. Do not fax to the MORS office.

12-14 June 2007, at US Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD

712CDFor office use only 41205

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Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188

Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering andmaintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information,including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, ArlingtonVA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if itdoes not display a currently valid OMB control number.

1. REPORT DATE 01 JUN 2007

2. REPORT TYPE N/A

3. DATES COVERED -

4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Optimizing Chemical Battlefield Sensor Layouts

5a. CONTRACT NUMBER

5b. GRANT NUMBER

5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER

6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER

5e. TASK NUMBER

5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER

7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) ITT-AES 2560 Huntington Ave. Alexandria, VA 22303

8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATIONREPORT NUMBER

9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S)

11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S)

12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release, distribution unlimited

13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES See also ADM202526. Military Operations Research Society Symposium (75th) Held in Annapolis,Maryland on June 12-14, 2007., The original document contains color images.

14. ABSTRACT

15. SUBJECT TERMS

16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT

UU

18. NUMBEROF PAGES

25

19a. NAME OFRESPONSIBLE PERSON

a. REPORT unclassified

b. ABSTRACT unclassified

c. THIS PAGE unclassified

Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18

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Optimizing Chemical Battlefield Sensor LayoutsSensor Location Optimization Tool Set (SLOTS) SPOD Study

75th MORS Symposium14 June 2007

Scott Mitchell, Michael J. Smith, Javad Sedehi, Mark Henning, Samuel Freund, Stuart Edick, Julie Tittler

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 3

Overview

SLOTS Objective

Technical Approach

Test Case Runs

Developing an Operational Test

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 4

Technical ApproachTechnical Approach

Train SLOTS based on a series of threats, and battlespace parameters to arrive at a generalized sensor placement scheme. Evaluate the solutions against several specific test conditions.

1. Identify parameters and appropriate ranges – Establish sensor kit – Determine met– Obtain Terrain Data– Determine threats – Identify high value assets– Determine relevant constraints– Define performance criteria

2. Setup and run simulations for the matrix of values determined in #1.– add/modify sensors representation in DAS– Incorporate terrain– Match appropriate threat sources in SCIPUFF

3. Setup SLOTS (genetic algorithm) parameters4. Perform analysis of outcomes.

Determine Threat and Met Range

Create Hazards

Determine Constraints on Sensor Placement

Establish Optimization

CriteriaOptimize

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 5

The SLOTS Architecture

CB Sim Suite (Linux)

SLOTS PC

Credible Threats

NCBR

DAS Analyzer

Potential Layouts

GeneticAlgorithm

Optimal Solution

VulnerabilityAssessment

External Sources(CBRN Data

Model)

Sensor Kit(MTOE/

TDA)

Multiple Sensor Kits

(Resource Allocation)

Constraints

Hazard Source

SLOTS GUI and Tools

MET 4D Hazard

Sensor Definition

Sim Cache

CacheTables

Web Client

APACHE 2.x

CGI ScriptsSensor Map

Static Entity File

Alarm Points

Alarm PointPost-processor

TTP Automation

CB Sim Suite (Linux)

SLOTS PC

Credible Threats

NCBR

DAS Analyzer

Potential Layouts

GeneticAlgorithm

Optimal Solution

VulnerabilityAssessment

External Sources(CBRN Data

Model)

Sensor Kit(MTOE/

TDA)

Multiple Sensor Kits

(Resource Allocation)

Constraints

Hazard Source

SLOTS GUI and Tools

MET 4D Hazard

Sensor Definition

Sim Cache

CacheTables

Web Client

APACHE 2.x

CGI ScriptsSensor Map

Static Entity File

Alarm Points

Alarm PointPost-processor

TTP Automation

Simulation Cache•Provide a means to employ physics based modeling and simulation to generate sensor placement environment and mitigate impact to operational timelines

Web Services Interface•Provide an interchangeable interface to modeling and simulation tools, allowing user selectable hazard modeling applications (e.g. NCBR, JEM, etc.)

Genetic Algorithm•Provide a global optimization solution for sensor placement.

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 6

Sample

User Defined Values

Scoring the Results

Combines– Threats

– Agent– Delivery– Attack placement– MET

– Critical AssetWeighting values:

– Attack Threat– Agent vulnerability– Agent Likelihood– MET Probability

– Critical Asset importance– Power Law weighting

Scoring function determines how complete preparations should be at any given time.Determine applicable preventative measures

– Importance of action– Time required to enact

2480Suit up

10Zero Warning

130Shelter Critical Supplies

2240Shutdown Building HVAC

3180Personnel move to shelter

290Shelter Critical Equipment

69Mask

5N/ADetect

RelativeImportance

Required Time (sec)Activity

( ) )(Constraint),,( sensorsalarmsalarmssensorsfwwfitnessthreat CA

CAthreatCAthreat ⋅⎥⎦

⎤⎢⎣

⎡⋅⋅= ∑ ∑

Detect Profile

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500Warning Time (sec.)

Det

ect S

core

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 7

Constraints & TTP

Hard (Fatal) Constraints– Areas where a sensor cannot be placed– Solutions edited or removed before continuing– Ex. Facilities, Lake, Roadways

Soft Constraints– Areas where we don’t want to put the sensor– But could if it were a good solution– Score penalized– Ex. Marshland, unprotected area

Adjacency Constraint– Penalize sensors for being too close together.– Exponential Decay function– Allows sensor layout to generalize better

Site SelectionLt. yellow – CAPink – PerimeterLt. Green – Constraint

(Max. Sensor Distance)

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 8

SLOTS Automated Rules-based Placement (ARP)

Manned PositionsManned Positions

Sensor LocationsSensor Locations

Wind direction

Wind directionThe ARP provides visualization of sensor positions and compliance with doctrine and tactics, techniques and procedures. Also suggests alternative positions and associated risk. It provides decision maker with quick look at the “goodness” of given a sensor placement scheme.

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 9

SLOTS GA TestSLOTS GA Test

Fort Hunter LiggettRolling HillsMultiple Critical AssetsSingle Agent: GBDelivery

– Scud (500kg)– 122mm Artillery Volley– 100kg Bomb– Line Spray from nearby roads

Attack Placement– Several per Delivery & MET

Using historic MET – Two wind directions (N, NNE)– Wind speeds at average

+ 1 standard deviation– Average Temperature

34 Simulations Total

5m contours

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 10

Layout– Grid (25m x 25m)

OptimizationOptimization

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 11

Layout– Grid (25m x 25m)

Simulations– North Winds

– Artillery @ 1100m

OptimizationOptimization

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 12

Layout– Grid (25m x 25m)

Simulations– North Winds

– Artillery @ 1100m

– Line Spray @ 250-1500m

OptimizationOptimization

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 13

Layout– Grid (25m x 25m)

Simulations– North Winds

– Artillery @ 1100m

– Line Spray @ 250-1500m

– NNE Winds

– Scud @ 2000m

OptimizationOptimization

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 14

Layout– Grid (25m x 25m)

Simulations– North Winds

– Artillery @ 1100m

– Line Spray @ 250-1500m

– NNE Winds

– Scud @ 2000m

– 100kg Bomb @ 500m

OptimizationOptimization

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 15

Layout– Grid (25m x 25m)

Simulations– North Winds

– Artillery @ 1100m

– Line Spray @ 250-1500m

– NNE Winds

– Scud @ 2000m

– 100kg Bomb @ 500m

Optimal

OptimizationOptimization

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 16

Benchmark and OptimalBenchmark and Optimal

BenchmarkScore = 0.3814767

OptimalScore = 0.4668766

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 17

Why is the Optimal Better?Why is the Optimal Better?

6558# of Advance Warnings

5430 2nd Sensor Detects

90711st Sensor Detects

2363rd Sensor Detects

130.2134.2Average Warning (sec)

017 assets

on 9 attacks

Undetected Asset Contaminations

7none4th Sensor Detects

Optimalw/ Adj Constraint

Benchmark

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 18

Why is that Sensor there?Why is that Sensor there?

The SE sensor is critical.– Catches 69% of the attacks with no

other detection– 11 first detects– Detects 44% of the attacks

The Central sensor provides first detects for line spray attacks. And provides detects on 41% of attacks.The Picket Fence combines for 21 first detects with each sensor taking a fairly equal share.Picket Fence A has 19% of only detects.Picket Fence B detects 35% of all attacks

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 19

Does a SLOTS Layout Generalize?

SLOTS optimal layouts are based upon a representative sample of attacks.

How does it fare against attacks that it has not seen?

Tested using Leave-one-out Cross-validation.

Scores better than doctrine methods Fort Hunter Liggett Test Scoring

0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55

Dice 5

Picket Fence

SLOTS Optimal (Test)

SLOTS Optimal (Trained)

Score

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 20

Threat Cloud Detection

SLOTS is able to detect threat clouds more reliably than doctrine.

Threat Clouds Missed

17.6%

21.2%

5.5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Dice 5

Picket Fence

SLOTS Optimal (Test)

% Threat Cloud Misses

0%25%50%75%100%

Assets ContaminatedDuring Missed Attacks

CA1 CA2CA3 Base Only

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 21

How will SLOTS perform in a real world scenario?

Existing sensors, operationally relevant SPOD, potentially exposed to TIC and CWA threats.

SLOTS Field TripSLOTS Field Trip

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 22

Key Input ParametersKey Input Parameters

There are several parameters which drive the fidelity of the solutions. The range of values for these determine the total number of simulations required.

Sensor Kit– Type (LCD 3, Multi RAE, ACADA)

– Quantity

– Mode (TIC/CWA)

– Locations

– Detection range (Threshold concentrations)

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 23

Key Input ParametersKey Input Parameters

Threat– Agent

– TIC (Chlorine, SO2, Hydrogen Cyanide, H2SO4, Ammonia)– CWA (G, H, V)

– Agent Amount– TBD

– Source Location – Fixed facilities (TIC)– IPB determined (CWA)

– Source Type/Dissemination Method– Stacks (Analytical releases) for TICs– SCIPUFF (delivery systems) for CWAs

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 24

Key Input ParametersKey Input Parameters

Meteorology Data Sources– Forecast

– Observations

– Historical

– Chemical Downwind Messages (CDM)

Terrain Data– NCBR (CTDB c7l)

– SLOTS Shape file

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Optimizing Battlefield Sensor Layouts -Distribution Unlimited - Unclassified June 14, 2007 25

Key Input ParametersKey Input Parameters

High Value Assets– Define

– Weight

Constraints– Go

– No Go

– Maybe (with penalty)

Fitness Functions– Understand

– Protective Measure & Associated Time


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