Copyright © IDATE 2012
DigiWorld Yearbook 2012 12th edition
Presentation Moscow – Oct. 4, 2012
Copyright © IDATE 2012
Introduction • DigiWorld Institute: who are we?
The DigiWorld in 2012 • Geographic and sectorial trends • The Game Changers
Telcos faced with the CAPEX challenge • Huge amounts of money to be spent in NGA deployments • Network sharing can help
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Agenda
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DigiWorld Institute Who we are
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From IDATE to DigiWorld Institute? Founded in 1977, IDATE has gained a reputation as a leader in tracking telecom, Internet and media markets, thanks to the skills of our teams of specialized analysts. Now, with the support of close to 40 member companies – which include many of the digital economy’s most influential players – the newly rebranded DigiWorld Institute has entered into a new stage of its development, structured around three main areas of activity:
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• Time-tested analysis and consultancy Our expertise and client list > Consulting
• An independent observatory
Our catalogue of reports > Research
• A European forum open on the world Our annual programme > DigiWorld Institute
IDATE Consulting
IDATE Research
DigiWorld Institute
Business units
Telecoms Strategies Internet TV & digital Content
Regional development
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Where we stand in the marketplace
#1 think tank on the digital economy in Europe
Top-tier consultancy and policy advisory for governments and local authorities
#1 catalogue of independent market reports in Europe
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Annual program for the DigiWorld Institute
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DigiWorld Clubs
DigiWorld Events
DigiWorld Collaborative Research
DigiWorld Publishing
Club in Paris (monthly)
Club in London
(monthly)
Club in Brussels
(monthly)
3 conferences in Paris
Transatlantic Dialogue
(Columbia University)
DigiWorld Summit 2012
Catalogue of market studies
DigiWorld Economic Journal
(Communications & Strategies)
DigiWorld Yearbook
Content Cloud distribution
Next Gen Access & Networks
Smart & Digital City
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DigiWorld Yearbook
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The 2012 report, available in French and English, is presented in Paris, Brussels, London and, for the first time this year, in Casablanca and in Moscow.
An iPad version is available in association with:
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The DigiWorld Yearbook is published with the support of DigiWorld Institute members
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The DigiWorld in 2012 Geographic and sectorial trends
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A 3,069-billion market in 2011, with a 4.3% growth
• 3 percentage points lower than global GDP growth
• 2.7% increase in the U.S., less than 1% in Europe
• Emerging markets remain the most dynamic markets ... still developed markets weigh more than 2/3 of total world sales
Digiworld markets by region
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North America still leading… but Asia and the Pacific are rising
Distribution of DigiWorld markets by region, 2011
Contribution to market growth by region
Source: IDATE
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After the 2010 recovery, moderate growth in 2011 ; very contrasted by sector
• Strong growth in the equipment market (8% for telecom, 7% for IT) except for consumer electronics
• Lower growth in services, from 3% for telecoms to 5% for TV
Global Digiworld market by sector
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Growth driven by equipment (except for CE)... but a services market still highly dominant
Global DigiWorld market growth by sector
Breakdown of global DigiWorld markets by sector, in 2011
Source: IDATE
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The DigiWorld trends: New Internet markets versus traditional markets services
Note: 2011 market figures for EU-27 Source: IDATE
Growth rate
2010-2011
Market size 2011 Billion Euro
0 to -3%
0 to +10%
+10 to 20%
+20 to 50%
+50 to 70%
+100%
0 to 1 1 to 5 5 to 10 10 to 100 +100
eBook (0.5 Bn, +280%)
Online Video (1.4 Bn, +63%)
Music (0.8 Bn, +13%)
Mobile Apps (1 Bn, +42%)
Social Networks (1.3 Bn, +53%)
M2M (1.5 Bn, +17%)
Online Gaming (3.5 Bn, +25%)
Cloud (7.4 Bn, +30%)
Search (8 Bn, +15%)
TV services (77 Bn, +2.6%)
eCommerce (244 Bn, +15%)
Software & IT services (217 Bn, +2.3%)
Telecoms services (248 Bn, -1.9%)
Traditional markets Internet markets
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The DigiWorld in 2012 The Game Changers
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1. Will the devices be king?
OS and mobiles
Source: IDATE
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Fixed-Mobile LTE
Smartphones-Tabs
Network management-DPI-Policy Control-Charging iCloud/Google Drive/DropBox
IaaS/PaaS/SaaS
eAdvertising-Profiling
Streaming Smart City
2. The Game Changers
Big Data Data in Motion
Services in the cloud
Mobility everywhere Facebook Mobile
NFC-Mobile banking
Multiscreen
TV everywhere
Analytics
Open Data
A new stage for the Internet and digital economy, driven by a combination of Mobile, Cloud and Big Data ...
Source: IDATE
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3. The Internet Giants’ Business Models
Source: IDATE
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4. Troubled times for telecoms in Europe
Source: IDATE
Annual growth of the mobile services market in Europe (EU-27) and the U.S.
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5. But still room for growth in Russia (1)
Growth of the telecom services market in Russia (€ billion).
Telecom service revenues x6 over the last 10 years… … with mobile services accounting for 60% of total
Source: IDATE
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5. But still room for growth in Russia (2)
Source: IDATE
Subscriber growth in Russia (millions)
Subscriber bases have expanded very rapidly, notably in mobile…
… and should continue to expand, notably in broadband
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5. But still room for growth in Russia (3)
Source: IDATE
4 Russian groups in the world top 50 telcos in 2011
World top telcos in 2011 Rank Company Country 2011 sales (billion €)
1 NTT Japan 94 6242 AT&T USA 91 0763 Verizon USA 79 6864 Telefonica Spain 62 8375 China Mobile China 58 7286 Deutsche Telekom Germany 58 6537 Vodafone UK 53 5478 France Telecom France 45 2779 America Movil Mexico 38 480
10 KDDI Japan 32 168… … … …19 Vimpelcom Russia 14 562… … … …35 MTS Russia 8 853… … … …40 Rostelecom Russia 7 241
47 MegaFon Russia 5 934… … … …
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Telcos facing the CAPEX challenge Huge amounts of money to be spent in NGA deployments
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Clear need for telcos to invest in NGN
Source: Telecom Italia
Traffic growing but not revenue…
• Growing traffic due to increasing demand for video services
• Operators need investments up to build high capacity networks
… and carriers have limited cash for spending in costly FTTH and LTE infrastructure deployments
Gap between revenue and traffic growth
Innovative financing models required • Self-financing by staggering new network deployments • Sharing the network partly or entirely with one or more operators • Developing open access network and public-private partnership models • Outsourcing network operations to equipment vendors to lower costs
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Telcos facing the CAPEX challenge Network sharing can help
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Network sharing an economic imperative for telcos
Source: France Telecom/Deutsche Telekom
Network sharing between two or more operators naturally affects infrastructure costs, depending on the degree of cooperation between them, by sharing:
• Passive elements: masts, sites… the more sites that are shared, the greater the savings
• Or active elements such as antennas (mobile) or OLT for FTTx networks
Procurement process between France Telecom and Deutsche Telekom
New sharing model involves joint network equipment procurement, as with Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom (April 2011)
• DT expects to thereby save €900 million over three years and FT €400 million
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Open access network becoming a business reference model (1)
An open access network involves the separation of physical network access and supply of services, in the form of:
• Operator-operator relationship between private players. The network is built and managed by an operator while services to end users are delivered by one or several ISPs. This allows local ISPs to have access to the end market without significant capital outlays;
• Private-public partnerships (PPP) are the most popular model. One party – generally a public entity – assumes the financial burden while the other party is responsible for the technical and operational aspects.
Source: IDATE
Functional layers in an open access network
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Open access network becoming a business reference model (2)
Open access networks are especially well suited to rural areas where Internet service providers cannot obtain a rapid and sufficient return on their investment due to the high cost of fibre rollouts
Country/programme National investment (billion €)
Per capita spending (€)
Type of financing
Australia/ NBN
30 1,429 Construction of a national open access network
Singapore/ NGN National BB Network
0.56 125 Construction of a national open access network
France/ National ultra-fast broadband plan
2 33 Subsidy, following a local call for proposal
USA/ BB Stimulus
5.6 (only part of which is for FTTH)
Less than 18 Subsidy, following a local call for proposals
Source: IDATE
Main PPP for FTTH deployments around the world
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Thank you! Join us on: Didier POUILLOT
Head of Telecom Strategy BU +33 (0)4 67 14 44 18 +33 (0)6 70 70 85 86 [email protected]