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Inspiring leadership for a sustainable world

This policy brief will explore, the future

climatic changes in the Kabul River basin

located in the Hindu Kush Mountain ranges

of Pakistan and Afghanistan. The latest

datasets of statistically downscaled CMIP5

Global Climate Models (GCMs) and NASA

Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled

Projections (NEXGDDP) were used.

The dataset delivers valuable local scale,

high-resolution climate change information

for past and future periods (1950–2100) on

a daily basis, which is very suitable for

exploring future changes in mean and

extremes of both temperature and

precipitation. Future projections indicate a

consistent rise in mean temperature over

the entire Kabul River Basin, relative to the

baseline under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5

emission scenarios - simply interpreted as

the difference between energy absorbed

by the Earth and energy radiated back into

the space. Although the increase in

temperature is not uniform across the

domain, upper reaches of the basin show

annua l and seasona l warming of

approximately 6.8°C by the end of the 21st

century under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These

changes are significant at a 95% confidence

level. The rise in summer and winter

temperatures may negatively affect the

snow accumulation during winter and has

potential to accelerate glacier melting

during summers. Projections of future

precipitation under both scenarios show an

overall decrease in mean precipitation. The

br ief furn ishes a ser ies of pol icy

recommendations for informing decision

makers and water policy experts to devise

future interventions in light of climate

change projections.

IntroductionThe Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region has

the largest concentration of glaciers outside

the Poles and feeds seven of Asia's greatest

rivers. The region is termed as the most

tenuous ecological areas, vulnerable to

climate change especially its impact on

water resources which can be quite diverse

and uncertain. Different climate conditions

co-exist in these complex mountain ranges,

due to the influence of multiple circulation

systems and several climate feedbacks of

atmosphere, cryosphere, and hydrosphere,

thus making the region highly vulnerable to

climate change related impacts (Palazzi et

al. 2013). Therefore, future water resource

assessment under climate change lens is

the need of the hour for planning and

operation of necessary hydrological

installations. Seasonal flow forecasting

with respect to climate change could

provide significant benefits for the

management of national power strategies

by providing an early indication of surplus

or shortfall in hydropower, which would

require balancing with thermal power

sources.

The Kabul River basin is shared with

estimated nine million people living in

Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Kabul River

with its five tributaries makes around 26

percent of available water resources in

Afghanistan (King, & Sturtewagen, 2010)

and irrigates 72,000 km² of land (FAO,

2012). The presence of climate change-

related vulnerabilities pose a serious threat

to the socio-economic development of the

population that is dependent on the water

resources of Kabul River. Global Climate

Models (GCMs) are being widely used by

the scientific community in studies of past

climates, and to project future climate

Key Messages

æ9 million people in both Pakistan and

Afghanistan rely and benefit from the Kabul

River Basin, however research shows that

precipitation is likely to decrease by 50

percent in this region due to climate

change.

æ The rise in mean annual temperatures will

in turn accelerate snow and glacier melt

rates thereby increasing the probability of

intense and frequent flashfloods in the

Kabul River Basin.

æ Lack of climate data pertinent to the Kabul

River Basin impedes the development of a

sustainable management framework.

Therefore, the expansion of climatological

and hydrological networks in the region is

imperative to not only devise mitigation

and adaptation strategies in Pakistan but

also to share data and build a joint

watershed management system in

collaboration with Afghanistan.

æClimate change threatens food security in

both countries by altering water availability

patterns therefore climate smart irrigation

is vital in order to secure agricultural

productivity. Use of drip irrigation,

adjustments in cropping patterns and

introduction of water-efficient crops need

to be taken into account on a national scale.

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Climate Change Projections of Kabul River Basin using Multi-Model Ensemble

85 Policy Brief

Figure 1: Boundaries of Kabul River Basin and elevation in meters. Glaciers are marked in blue and white shade. Black dot shows the location of outlet river gauging station

under different socio-economic and Greenhouse Gas (GHG)

emission scenarios (Almazroui et al. 2012; Annamalai et al. 2007;

Taylor et al. 2012).

This policy brief is based on a study conducted by Pakistan

Meteorological Department (PMD) to provide a robust assessment

of the present-day climate and its future changes under two

emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) using statistically

downscaled and bias corrected projections of GCMs of the CMIP5.

This study is based on 21 downscaled GCMs and two scenarios

(RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) of CMIP5 family. This policy brief will help

form a basis for the estimation of changes in the hydrological cycle

of the basin, and inform decision makers and water policy experts

to devise future interventions in light of these climate change

projections.

Study Area, Data & MethodologyThe Kabul River Basin (KRB) is an upland enveloped by mountains

stretching through the north-western part of Pakistan to the

eastern central part of Afghanistan (Fig 1). The Kabul River

originates from the Hindu Kush Mountains and is one of the major

rivers in Afghanistan with a high population density (Fakhri et al. 22007). The Basin covers an area of about 92,000 km and splits into

five sub-basins:

1. The Paghman river - merges into the Basin from the west where

it evolves into a tributary of the KRB and eventually enters into the

Indus catchment over the Pakistan side of the Basin;

2. The Logar river - merges into the Basin from the south and

discharges therein;

3. The Kunar river - originates from the Chitral Valley in Pakistan,

enters Afghanistan through Kunar and reroutes towards Pakistan

after flowing up to Jalalabad province in Afghanistan;

4. The Salang, Ghorband, and Panjshir rivers - form the

Ghorband–Panjshir watershed;

5. The Alishang and Alinigar rivers - converge at Surobi (Hassanyar

et al. 2017; Lashkaripour and Hussaini 2007).

According to Bajracharya et al. (2011), there are around 1,600

glaciers located in the Kabul basin, with the highest and largest

concentration in the Kunar and Swat sub-basins. There is a high

variation of received precipitation throughout the year due to the

complex terrain. Approximately all of the precipitation in the basin

falls during the winter season and is mostly “snow precipitation”

which is reserved over the mountains to recharge the rivers in the

melt season. Rivers dehydrate when the snow has completely

melted. Hence, there is no continuous water supply available in

the rivers flowing within the KRB. Water supply from snow or ice

melt represents a major contribution to discharge during the

summer months.

Results and ConclusionGenerally, a warmer climate is expected towards the end of

century, which could result in accelerated snow and glacier melt

processes. During the mid-century, the mean temperature is

expected to rise between 3.2-3.7°C in the western parts of the

domain. The range of temperature changes by the end of the

century is estimated at 5.8°C – 6.8 °C.

There is evidence that in the 21st century, precipitation may

decrease up to 50 percent across KRB. The decrease in

precipitation could be more pronounced on the western parts of

KRB in Afghanistan. Summer precipitation is seen to decrease less

compared (0 to 15 percent). Strong negative change signal, along

with an increase in warming, may induce frequent occurrences of

flash floods and affect streamflow dynamics.

Policy Recommendations

Hydrological responses to climate change

æAn assessment should be carried out on water related hazards

which frequently transform into disasters due to climate

change. Without such an assessment, management of climate

change impacts would take on a reactive approach which is

deemed unsustainable. Risk assessment exercises should be

conducted by involving all stakeholders, such as policy makers

and climate experts.

æAll inactive hydro-meteorological stations should be

operationalized, maintained and upgraded. In order to do so,

focus should be on capacity building of the local staff dealing

with these stations.

æPolicies pertinent to disaster elusion and community resilience

should be drafted in order to make communities well-equipped

in times of disasters. This will not only considerably lower the

damages inflicted by natural disasters but will also reduce the

need of post disaster relief operations.

æ Expansion of hydro meteorological networks in the entire basin

will help contribute towards the attainment of accurate and

reliable database for future planning, research and

development.

Policy Brief

Climate Change Projections of Kabul River using multi-model ensemble

Figure 1: Boundaries of Kabul River Basin and elevation in meters. Glaciers are marked in blue and white shade. Black dot shows the location of outlet river gauging station

æGlacier Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) early warning systems

should be installed in the disaster prone valleys on the

eastern side of the basin, where most glaciers are located, in

order to reduce the risk of communities exposed to the

hazard, since mountain systems are particularly sensitive to

climate change.

æResearch study on coping mechanisms for local communities

in disaster prone areas can help curb health, livelihood,

economic and environmental hazards caused from natural

calamities and develop improved adaptation measures.

æA technical study should be conducted on robust early

warning systems in the context of climate change and the

changing ecology.

Irrigation and storage capacity

æ Identification of most suitable sites for expanding/

intensifying irrigation schemes and spotting locations that are

appropriate for raising storage capacity of basins/sub-basins

(reservoirs, aquifers) to balance detrimental impacts of

climate and land use as projected for the coming future.

æPolicy reforms are needed for water management, water

quality and water allocations within and among different

consumers as well as across sub-basins.

æRehabilitation and development of irrigation infrastructure

can significantly minimize conveyance water losses, improve

water use efficiency and meet production demands.

æ Climate Smart Irrigation should be adopted in order to benefit

from the seasonal shift of flows as a result of increased river

flows during spring season. Adjusting the cropping calendar

and introduction of new innovative technological practices in

order to best use the water that is wasted due to seasonal

shifts can result in increased land and crop productivity.

Water Demand Management through improved capacity

æ Capacity building is required at the local level to be able to

respond technically and on time to the growing food and

water demand with the rapid urbanization in this agrarian

country.

æAwareness of the local communities about future climate

change, its impacts on future rivers flows and adaptation

strategies to minimize human and material loss is missing

and must be addressed on immediate basis.

æAdaptation and mitigation policy adopted from the IWRM

framework can contribute towards reduced risk of water

stress and water shortage.

æGaps in water resource management such as discharge of

excess water due to lack of reservoirs and dams needs to be

addressed. Small hydropower installations can help conserve

snowmelt water caused by increased temperatures.

æ It is relevant for policy makers to be aware of current as well

as the anticipated water availability situation in order to

develop the most appropriate adaptation strategies and

analyze the cost to overcome the possible projected water

shortages in future.

Policy Brief

Climate Change Projections of Kabul River using multi-model ensemble

Referencesæ Almazroui M, Abid M, Athar H, Islam M, Ehsan M (2012) Interannual variability of rainfall over the Arabian Peninsula using the IPCC AR4

Global Climate Models. Int. J. Climatol 33(10):2328-2340.æ Annamalai H, Hamilton K, Sperber K (2007) The South Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 Simulations. J.

Climate 20(6):1071-1092.æ Bachner S, Kapala A, Simmer C (2008) Evaluation of daily precipitation characteristics in the CLM and their sensitivity to parameterizations.

Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 17(4):407-419.æ Bajracharya SR, Shrestha B (eds) (2011) The status of glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region. Kathmandu: ICIMODæ Chen YJ, Shui K, Shi H, Zheng (2016) Analysis of historical climate datasets for hydrological modellingæ across south Asia. CSIRO Sustainable Development Investment Portfolio project. Technical report.æ CSIRO Land and Water, Australia.æ Ekström M, Grose MR, Whetton PH (2015) An appraisal of downscaling methods used in climate change research. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim

Change 6(3):301-319.æ Fakhri RA, (2007) Socio economic and demographic profile – Afghan Agriculture.æ FAO (2012) "Land cover atlas of The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (2010)." Strengthening Agricultural Economics, Market Information and

Statistics Services in Afghanistan (GCP/AFG/063/EC).æ Ficklin DL, Abatzoglou JT, Robeson SM, Dufficy A (2016) The influence of climate model biases on projections of aridity and drought. J. Climate

29(4):1269-1285.æ Hassanyar MH, Hassani S, Dozier J (2017) Multi-model Ensemble Climate Change Projection for Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan under

Representative Concentration Pathways. Glob Res Dev Journ Eng, 02(05):69-78.æ Hutchinson MF, Xu T (2013) Anusplin Version 4.4 User Guide.æ King M, Sturtewagen B (2010), Making the most of Afghanistan's river basins: Opportunities for regional cooperation. EastWest Institute,

New York.æ Knutti R (2008) Should we believe model predictions of future climate change? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A:

Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 366(1885):4647-4664.Lashkaripour G, Hussaini S (2007) Water resource management in Kabul river basin, eastern Afghanistan. The Environmentalist, 28(3):253-260.

æ Lutz AF, ter-Maat HW, Biemans H, Shrestha AB, Wester P, Immerzeel WW (2016) Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope� based selection approach. Int. J. Climatol 36(12):3988-4005.

æ Leung LR, Mearns LO, Giorgi F, Wilby RL (2003) Regional climate research: needs and opportunities. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 84(1):89-95.æ Madadgar S, Moradkhani H (2014) Improved Bayesian multi-modelling: Integration of copulas and Bayesian model averaging. Water

Resource Res 50(12):9586-9603.

About LEAD PakistanLeadership for Environment and Development (LEAD) Pakistan is a reputable national institution, and has emerged as a thought leader in building consensus and shaping the development discourse in Pakistan. Particularly focusing on climate change, water governance and SDG implementation, LEAD strives to ensure that the federal and provincial governments' development agendas are equitable, inclusive and in line with international commitments and global best practices.

We remain committed to the design, development and delivery of innovative policy solutions to promote economically sustainable, socially equitable, and environmentally responsible growth. With successful delivery of over 200 development initiatives to date and being the largest network based organization in Pakistan, we are endeavouring to enhance our impact on development in Pakistan, the South Asian region and beyond.

DisclaimerThe information contained in this policy brief is mostly obtained from secondary resources and views of the faculty, which may not necessarily be aligned with LEAD Pakistan's official position on specific issues.

CopyrightsYou may quote or reproduce materials from this publication with due acknowledgement to LEAD Pakistan, unless indicated otherwise.

For more policy briefs visit our websitehttp://www.lead.org.pk

SuggestionsLEAD Pakistan welcomes corrections and comments on its publications. Please feel free to send comments on content, including typography, formatting, or other errors. Simply copy the page, mark the error, and send it to Focal Person Publications on the postal address given below or email at com@lead.org.pk

Contact usLEAD PakistanOffice No.13 Plot 14, 2nd Floor Executive ComplexG-8 Islamabad - 44000PakistanT: +92 (051) 2651511F: +92 (051) 2340058E: main@lead.org.pkW: www.lead.org.pk

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AcknowledgementThe Water Programme of LEAD Pakistan developed this Policy Brief under the USAID's Partnership for Enhanced Engagement in Research (PEER) program Cycle 4 project titled “Understanding our Joint Water-Climate Change Challenge and Exploring Policy Options for Cooperation on the Afghan-Pak Transboundary Kabul River Basin”. This policy paper is largely adapted from the research study 'Future Climate Change Projections of the Kabul River Basin using a multi-model ensemble of High-Resolution Statistically Downscaled Data', carried out by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). The paper suggests policy recommendations for the future planning, research and development of Kabul River Basin, in terms of addressing the gaps and introduction of policy reforms needed for water resource management. PMD acknowledges CSIRO Land and Water, Australia, for providing observed gridded Air Temperature and Precipitation data. LEAD wants to thank Mr. Khalid Mohtadullah, Senior Advisor Water Programme, LEAD Pakistan for providing valuable insight and expertise that assisted in improving the manuscript.

About the Policy BriefThis policy paper is based on the research paper 'Future Climate Change Projections of the Kabul River Basin using a multimodel ensemble of High-Resolution Statistically Downscaled Data', authored by Mr. Syed Ahsan Ali Bokhari, Mr. Ahmed Burhan, Mr. Shakeel Ahmad, Mr. Jahangir Ali, Mr. Haris Mushtaq and Dr. Ghulam Rasool from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). The contents of this brief have been gleaned solely from the research study.

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Writer:

Editor:

Designer:

Produced by:

Rabel Haider, Focal Person, Programme Department

Meera Omar, YPO, Learning and Knowledge Management

Tania Imran, YPO, Programme Department

Abbas Mushtaq, Focal Person Knowledge Management

Learning and Knowledge Management