86025_6

86025 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

86025_6

Determinants 2: Supply


Microchip

Television

Steamengine

Electricmotor

Gasolineengine

Vacuumtube

Commercialaviation

Nuclearenergy

1850 1900 1950 2000

NuclearHydroGasOil (incl. feedstocks)CoalTrad. renewables

Gto

e1.6 2.5 5.3

10

8

6

4

2

0

World primary energy use (Gtoe)

World population(billion)

World Energy Supply (in Gtoe)


World Primary Energy Substitution

100

60

40

20

0

1850 1900 1950 2000

Fra

ctio

n (

%)

Wood

Coal

Oil

GasNuclear

80


Drivers of Change in Energy Supply

• Geology: No historical evidence for scarcity (yet). (Unfounded) historical “myths”:UK fuelwood, US whale oil

• Economics: New supply even with higher prices (coal, oil, electricity), substantial subsequent cost declines with market growth

• Policy: Mixed blessings of “supply push” (nuclear, coal-mining subsidies)

• Technology: Paramount importance of end-use innovations: Steam engines, automobiles, electric motors, lights,….

• Quality matters: efficiency, electrification, decarbonization


Whale Catch and Whale Oil Prices

Wh

ale

s c

au

gh

t p

er

ye

ar

Wh

ale

oil

pri

ce U

S$

20

03/

ga

l

Source: Sperm catch: P. Best, 2002, IWC SC/56/IA5; Prices: U. Bardi, 2004, based on Starbuck, 1878.

Introduction of kerosene refiningand kerosene lamps


Price of Oil and Coal 1870-1915Source: Group Planning SHELL, 1994.


US - Crude Oil Prices

1859-1864: 84-292 $/bbl$/

bb

l (cu

rren

t an

d c

on

sta

nt

US

$200

0)

2000197519501925190018751850

75

50

25

0


Capacity Cost of Troll Field (North Sea)Source: Group Planning SHELL, 1994.

High prices beget high costs; low prices beget low costs (M. Adelmann)


World - Carbon Intensity of Primary Energy

10

20

30

1850 1900 1950

gC

/MJ

wood = 29.9

coal = 25.8

oil = 20.1

gas = 15.3

2000

15

25

35

Carbon intensity of:

H:C Ratios

0.5-1.0: 10.5 – 1 : 1


Recurring Perception of Scarcity

“…the data at hand in regard to the gas still available underground … make it probable that the annual output will never be very much more than it was during the period 1916 - 1920.”

R.S. McBride and E.G. Sievers (USGS),

Mineral Resources of the United States, 1921, p.340.

US gas production:

22 Mtoe in 1920

100 Mtoe in 1995


0

50

100

150

200

250

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Gto

e

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ye

ars

Total

Cumulativeconsumption

Remaining reserves/annual production

30080

2000

Remainingreserves

0

50

100

150

200

250

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Gto

e

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ye

ars

Total



30080

2000

Remainingreserves

0

50

100

150

200

250

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Gto

e

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ye

ars

Total



30080

2000

Remainingreserves

Remainingreserves

Recoverable Conventional Oil Reserves and Cumulative Production/Consumption

Nakicenovic et al., 1998; BGR, 1998.


Increasing degree of geological assurance

Incr

easi

ng

degr

ee o

f e

con

omic

fea

sib

ility

Resource Classification: The McKelvey Box

Subeconomic

Economic

Not economic

Reserves

Resources

Unconventional and low-gradeoccurrences

InferredMeasured Indicated

Demonstrated

Identified Reserves

Hypothetical Speculative

Probability range (or)

Undiscovered Resources

Resource Classification: The McKelvey Box


600

500

400

300

200

100

01940 1960 1970 1980 19901950 2000

1840884

950

12

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

15

16

1814

17

19

20

21

22

23

2627

28

29

30

31

3233

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

24

25

42

43

44

45

4647

48

49

50

51

52

5354

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

6465

66

67

68

69

70

35aGto

e

Source: BGR, 1998.

Estimates of “ultimately recoverable” Conventional Oil(UR = past production + reserves + future discoveries + field growth)


Gtoe Gtoe1 1942 Pratt, Weeks, Stabinger 82 35a 1977 Hubert 2722 1946 Duce 55 36 1978 WEC 127-950(350)3 1946 Poqe 76 37 1978 Nehring 231-3134 1948 Weeks (Esso) 183 38 1979 Halbouty (Moody) - 10.WPC 3045 1949 Levorsen 205 39 1979 Meyerhoff 3006 1949 Weeks 138 40 1979 Roorda 3307 1953 Mac Naughton 136 41 1980 WEC 3548 1956 Hubbert (Shell/USA) 171 42 1985 Masters et al. - 11. WPC 213-369 (246)9 1958 Weeks (Esso) 205 43 1981 Colitti (Agip) 283

10 1959 Weeks (Esso) 273 44 1982 Exxon 245-40811 1965 Hendricks (USGS) 338 45 1983 Odell and Rosing 40812 1967 Ryman (Esso) 285 46 1984 Masters et al. 1987 - 12. WPC 217-308 (239)13 1968 Shell 246 47 1987 Keller (Chevron) 23614 1968 Weeks (Esso) 300 48 1988 Deutsche BP 40015 1969 Hubbert 184-268 (235) 49 1988 BGR 35016 1970 Moody (Mobil) 246 50 1989 Campbell 22417 1971 Warman (BP) 164-273 (218) 51 1989 Masters et al. 1991 - 13. WPC 270-371 (295)18 1971 Weeks (Esso) 312 52 1989 Bookout 27219 1971 US National Petroleum Council 364 53 1991 Montardet and Alazard 1992 31820 1972 Linden 402 54 1991 Tedeschi 34021 1972 Weeks (Esso) 498 55 1992 Masters et al. 1994 - 14. WPC 285-382 (309)22 1972 Moody, Emerick (Mobil 246-259 (253) 56 1993 Townes 40823 1972 Richard 266 57 1993 BGR 1995 31324 1972 Warman (BP) 245 58 1994 Laherrere 24525 1973 WEC (USGS) 184-1840 59 1994 Petroconsultants 29126 1973 Wim Vermeer (Shell) 263 60 1994 Guttiereres 374

26a 1973 Warman (BP) 261 61 1994 Campbell 1995 22427 1973 Moody & Esser (Mobil) - 9. WPC 277 62 1994 Edwards 1997 38628 1974 Hubbert (USGS) 272 63 1995 Mackenzie 1996 35429 1975 Halbouty 1979 - 10. WPC 304 64 1995 Mabro 1996 24530 1975 Adams and Kirby (BP) 273 65 1996 Campbell 1997 24531 1975 Exxon 265 66 1996 Odell 1998 (Bezug auf Shell) 40032 1975 Grossling (USGS) 354-884 67 1996 Shell 32533 1975 BGR 336 68 1996 Schollnberger 1998 370*34 1975 Odell 486-576 69 1997 Hiller 1997 35035 1976 Klemme (Weeks) 259 70 1997 BGR 1998 341

* including heavy oil (78 Gtoe)

Conventional Oil: Estimates of “ultimately recoverable” Reserves

Source: BGR, 1998.


USGS Estimates of “ultimately recoverable Reserves” in 1987 and 2002 Data (Source: Masters, 1987; BP, 2002)

Reserves Undiscovered95% probability

Resources5%

probability

ReservesBP 2002

Saudi Arabia 166 20 65 262

Kuwait 73 1 7 96

Oman 5 <1 4 5

Middle East 421 62 199 686

1987 USGS estimates


Density of Exploratory Drilling per (potentially petroleum bearing) Sedimentary Area

Source: Grossling, 1976.


Canada

USA

Western Europe

FSU

Australia

South America

Africa

Asia exc. China

China

Middle East

• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

• • • • • • • • • • • •

• • • • • • • • •

• •

• • • • • • • • • • • •• • • •

•

• • • • •

• •

•

• • • •

Canada

USA

Western Europe

FSU

Australia

South America

Africa

Asia exc. China

China

Middle East

• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

• • • • • • • • • • • •

• • • • • • • • •

• •

• • • • • • • • • • • •• • • •

•

• • • • •

• •

•

• • • •

Canada

USA

Western Europe

FSU

Australia

South America

Africa

Asia exc. China

China

Middle East

• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

• • • • • • • • • • • •

• • • • • • • • •

• •

• • • • • • • • • • • •• • • •

•

• • • • •

• •

•

• • • •

Wells drilled through 1975 shown in black. Wells drilled 1976 through 2003 shown in red.Each circle represents 50,000 wells. Data through 1975 and relative petroleum prospective area from Grossling: “Window on Oil”

Wells drilled 1976 through 2003 per World Oil, August issue 1977 through 2003.From the 1.9 million wells drilled worldwide since 1975 three quarters were drilled in mature oil

provinces (esp. the USA), classified in 1975 as “close to drilling saturation”.

Prospective Sedimentary Areas and Oil Drilling Densities as per 1975 and per 2003

Source: B. Grossling, 1976. Update courtesy of Jeff Possick, Yale FES 802, 2004


0

50

100

150

200

250

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Gto

e

0

10

20

40

50

60

80

Ye

ars

TotalRemaining reserves/annual production

300

2000

30


70

Remainingreserves

0

50

100

150

200

250

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Gto

e

0

10

20

40

50

60

80

Ye

ars

TotalRemaining reserves/annual production

300

2000

30


70

Remainingreserves

Remainingreserves

Remainingreserves

Recoverable Conventional Gas Reserves and Cumulative Production/Consumption

Nakicenovic et al., 1998; BGR, 1998.


Natural Gas Use in China


Ateshgyakh Temple(18th century)in Surakhany(15 km from Baku).


Unconventional Gas Resources of the USProduction (=Reserves) already today!


Global Hydrocarbon Reserves and Resources in ZJ (1021J)

Consumption Reserves Resources Resource Additional1860-1998 1998 base Occurrences

OilConventional 4.85 0.13 6 6 12Unconventional 0.29 0.01 6 16 22 60

GasConventional 2.35 0.08 6 11 17Unconventional 0.03 -- 9 26 35 800

Coal 5.99 0.09 21 179 200 140

Total 13.51 0.31 48 238 286 1000

Source: Nakicenovic et al., 1996; Nakicenovic, Grübler and McDonald, 1998; WEC, 1998; Masters et al., 1994; Rogner et al., 2000

reserves/resources dominated by coal largest occurrence:gas hydrates


Methane Hydrates (Clathrates)

Global Hydrocarbon Reserves and Resourcesin GtC (109 tC)

IPCC: “discernible influence on climate system”current atmosphere: 760 GtC (+150 Gt since 1800)

Largest occurrence of hydrocarbons: methane hydrates


Fossil Era on Geological Time Scale (Question is only if it lasts 200 or 2000 years!)

1012

kw

h/y

r)

300

200

100

0-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5

Time before and after present (103 years)

Source: Scientific American, 1971.


Hubbert Oil Production Curve

Pro

du

ctio

n r

ate

(109

bb

ls/y

r)

60

50

40

30

20

10

01900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

250 x 10 9

bbls

180 x 10 9 bbls

382 x 10 9 bbls

Q =1350 x 10 9 bbls

Q =2100 x 10 9 bbls

80 percent (64 yrs)

80 percent (58 yrs)

784 x 10 9 bbls

Source: Hubbert 1956, and 1971.Predicted correctly peak in US oil production ~1970


Hubbert Curve “Modeling”Source: J. Laherre, 1997

Assumed saturation level ofcumulative production:ultimately recoverable reserves

First derivative: imputedannual production, under symmetry condition


Why Hubbert Curves(and “Depletion Mid-Points”) are Wrong

• Ex ante postulation of asymptote (“ultimately recoverable” reserves), a to-date unknown quantity

• Only considers “conventional” reserves, while unconventional are already produced today(tight gas, tar sands, etc.)

• No conditional forecasts as a function of prices and technology

• Symmetry condition of first derivative of logistic function at odds with basic economics (no symmetrical production “bell curve” with discountingand oil industry ROI conditions >10-20%)

• Aggregation over different petroleum provinces of different degrees of maturity cannot yield a global aggregate symmetrical “production curve” (violation of functional aggregation theorem)


Something Wrong with Theory?

• Historical success rate in US oil/gas drilling: No better than with random drilling

• Depletion of fields postponed: Refill from below: Jean Whelan=“state of art”

• Deep gas hypothesis: Tommy Gold=highly controversial

• Gas tracers (C-14): Abiogenic gas=Yes, but minor curiosity?

• Gas hydrates: How to explain quantities and occurrence (e.g. in deep sea bottom)?

• Methane abundance in extraterrestrial environments: Relevance for planet Earth?


Why is Uranus’ (or Neptune’s) Atmosphere Blue?(Methane=Natural Gas)


Renewable Energy Resource Base in EJ (1018 J) per year

ResourceCurrent

useaTechnicalpotential

Theoretical potential

Hydropower 9 50 147Biomass energy 50 >276 2,900Solar energy 0.1 >1,575 3,900,000Wind energy 0.1 640 6,000Geothermal energy 0.6 5,000 140,000,000Ocean energy ~0 n.e. 7,400Total ~60 >7,600 >144,000,000

n.e. Not estimateda. The electricity part of current use is converted to primary energy with a factor of 0.385 (subst.equivalent).

Source: WEA, 2000.


Biomass: Net Primary Productivity

2 Scenarios of Global Bio-energySupply Potentials and Use (excl. dedicated energy crops)

Bioenergy Use A2

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Bio

mas

s u

se E

J

Liquids

H2

Electricity

Biomass supply B1

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Bio

ener

gy

po

ten

tial

(E

J)

Ag. residues

Biomass from forests 1$/GJ

6$/GJ

4$/GJ

5$/GJ

3$/GJ

Biomass supply A2

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Bio

ener

gy

po

ten

tial

(E

J)

Ag. residues

Biomass from forests1$/GJ

6$/GJ

4$/GJ

5$/GJ

3$/GJ

Bioenergy Use B1

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Bio

mas

s u

se E

J

Elec + heat

H2

Gas

Liq

Liquids

H2

Source: IIASA GGI, 2006

Bioenergy Supply 2000-2100 B1 Scenario(Price <6$/GJ) Source: IIASA GGI, 2006

Comparison: at 60 $/bbl, crude oil = ~10$/GJ


Remember...

Date post:	03-Feb-2016
Category:	Documents
Upload:	oprah
View:	31 times
Download:	0 times

86025_6

Documents