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CONFIDENTIAL 1 NICHI May 7, 2014
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CONFIDENTIAL 1
NICHI May 7, 2014
CONFIDENTIAL 2
Agenda
Risks of Climate Change PlaNYC: A Stronger, More Resilient New York
CONFIDENTIAL 3
By the 2050s: 4oF to 6oF increase in average temperature 4% to 11% increase in average annual precipitation Sea levels likely to rise 1-‐2 feet; maybe 2.5 feet
The Risks of Climate Change NYC already faces a range of risks from extreme weather and climate change, and those risks grow into the 2020s, 2050s, and beyond.
By the 2050s:
Even today: 100-‐year floodplain expanded 51%; 2.3 ft. average increase in 100-‐year flood elevations; will increase with further sea level rise; now encompasses 68,000 structures
Sea levels likely to rise 2-‐4 feet; maybe 6 feet by the end of the century
CONFIDENTIAL 4
Flood Insurance Rate Maps are a regulatory product used to define
current flood risks for insurance purposes and establish building code standards.
Key functions:
Define current flood risk (coastal and riverine) Determine flood insurance requirements Inform building code standards
were issued in 1983 and never significantly updated.
CONFIDENTIAL 5
FEMA 1983 Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs)
FEMA 1983 FIRMs 100-‐year Floodplain
Source: FEMA
Flood Insurance Rate Maps flooding.
100-‐year Floodplain*
1983 FIRMs
Residents 218,000
Jobs 214,000
Buildings 36,000
1-‐4 Family 26,000
Floor Area (Sq Ft.) 377M
CONFIDENTIAL 6
FEMA 1983 FIRMs 100-‐year Floodplain
Sandy Inundation Area (outside the 100-‐year Floodplain)
Source: FEMA (MOTF 11/6 Hindcast surge extent)
Damage outside 1983 100-‐year floodplain:
> 1/3 of red-‐ and yellow-‐tagged buildings
~ 1/2 of impacted residential units
> 1/2 of impacted buildings
Flood Insurance Rate Maps Sandy demonstrated that New York was more vulnerable than previously thought.
FEMA 1983 FIRMs vs. Sandy Inundation Area
CONFIDENTIAL 7
Source: FEMA
100-‐year Floodplain*
1983 FIRMs
2013 PFIRMs
Change (%)
Residents 218,000 398,000 82%
Jobs 214,000 271,000 27%
Buildings 36,000 68,000 89%
1-‐4 Family 26,000 53,000 104%
Floor Area (Sq Ft.) 377M 534M 42%
FEMA 2013 Preliminary FIRMs 100-‐year Floodplain
FEMA 1983 FIRMs 100-‐year Floodplain
* Numbers are rounded for clarity
Flood Insurance Rate Maps The most recent maps, called Preliminary FIRMs, were released in December 2013 and show a floodplain that is 51% larger than previously.
FEMA 1983 FIRMs vs. Preliminary FIRMs
CONFIDENTIAL 8
Source: FEMA
FEMA 2013 Preliminary FIRMs 100-‐year Floodplain
Projected 2020s 100-‐year Floodplain
Projected 2050s 100-‐year Floodplain
Source: FEMA; CUNY Institute for Sustainable Cities
* Numbers are rounded for clarity
Flood Insurance Rate Maps even further by
the 2020s and into the 2050s. Projected floodplain for the 2020s and 2050s
100-‐year Floodplain*
2013 PFIRMs
2050s Projected
Change (%)
Residents 398,000 801,000 82%
Jobs 271,000 430,000 27%
Buildings 68,000 114,000 89%
1-‐4 Family 53,000 84,000 104%
Floor Area (Sq Ft.) 534M 855M 42%
CONFIDENTIAL 9
Historic Battery Tide Chart
Flood Insurance Rate Maps These sea level rise projections are in addition to the 1 ft. of sea level rise seen in NYC since 1900
Source: Data are from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL)
CONFIDENTIAL 10
FEMA, OEM
Change in BFE from 1983 FIRMs to 2013 Preliminary FIRM
Mean elevation increase (feet)
Borough Brooklyn 2.5 Bronx -‐0.1 Manhattan 1.5 Queens 2.4 Staten Island 3.1
Citywide 2.3
Properties built to code between 1983 and 2014 will likely no longer meet elevation requirements and premiums will increase again.
Source: RAND Table 4.6
Flood Insurance Rate Maps Preliminary FIRMs also show flood elevations increasing 1-‐4 feet across the city.
CONFIDENTIAL 11
Likelihood of Damage (%) (Return Period, 50 = 1/50 years)
Loss Frequency Relating to Wind and Surge, 2013 vs. 2020s vs. 2050s
Based on conservative assumptions:
Likelihood of a $19B storm (like Sandy) will grow 17% by the 2020s and 40% by the 2050s
Likely loss of 1/70-‐year storm (like Sandy) will grow to $35B by the 2020s and $90B by the 2050s (in current dollars)
~$90B
~$35B
~$19B
1/50 1/60 1/70
Risks of Climate Change Working with Swiss Re, the City quantified the potential monetary impacts resulting from an increased frequency in damaging storms as a result of climate change.
CONFIDENTIAL 12
Agenda
Risks of Climate Change PlaNYC: A Stronger, More Resilient New York
CONFIDENTIAL 13
A Stronger, More Resilient New York -‐layered
approach that is ambitious, achievable, and based on the best available science.
257 initiatives to reduce the risk of extreme
weather and climate change.
Includes funding, and an implementation schedule, and can be achieved over the next ten
years.
CONFIDENTIAL 14
A Stronger, More Resilient New York And, while this is necessarily a long-‐term plan, the City has already taken steps, with many partners, to advance many of its key initiatives, including these highlights:
Strengthening Coastal Defenses
Upgrading Buildings
Protecting Critical Infrastructure and Services
Making Neighborhoods Safer and More Vibrant
2 1
4 3
CONFIDENTIAL 15
20.7
11.9
8.8
2.4
6.4
Unmet Need
Existing Sources
Total Uses
Remaining Gap
Expected Sources
Last Updated: 4/9/2014
Funding City has a current expected funding gap of approximately $6.4 billion.
The City is awaiting allocation of State HMGP funds, 3rd CDBG tranche, and investments by NY Rising, among others.
Significant elements of the gap: Coastal Protection $1.8 B Building Upgrades $1.1 B Infrastructure $1.4 B
CONFIDENTIAL 16
nyc.gov/resiliency