2008 6
MBA 3 72006 2007
010-84588226 [email protected]
� 2005-200790.13%
30
� 08 09 20%08
3%30
�
� 10% 10%-15%
10%
10%-15%
� CPI
10.18 CPI 0.06
-50
0
50
100
0706
04
0708
27
0711
20
0802
18
0805
14
300 H
………2008 5 19
5
……………..2008 5 6
…………………..2008 4 7
…………………2008 2 19
1
2008 1 .31
……………………..2008 1 9
2008
….2007 12 8
2008 6
·························································································································································· 1
····························································································································1
·······················································································································································2
·························································································································································· 4
···············································································································································4
····································································································································8
······························································································································12
·················································································································································15
····································································································································································20
······················································································································20
······································································································································22
··········································································································································28
·········································································································································································29
10%······························································································································29
······································································································································30
··································································································································33
·········································································································································································37
·············································································································································37
CPI ·········································································································································38
1 ............................................................................................................................1 2 ............................................................................................................................................................1 3 ............................................................................................................................................................1 4 ............................................................................................................................................................2 5 ............................................................................................................................................................2 6 36 ...........................................................................................2 7 2003—2008 ...................................................................................................................................3 8 2003—2008 ...................................................................................................................................3 9 2003—2008 ...................................................................................................................................3 10 2003—2008 .................................................................................................................................3 11 2003—2008 .................................................................................................................................4 12 2003—2008 .................................................................................................................................4
2008 6
13 ..........................................................................................................................................4 14 ..................................................................................................................................4 15 ......................................................................................................................................5 16 ......................................................................................................................................5 17 ..................................................................................................................5 18 ..................................................................................................................5 19 2000-2007 ................................................................................................................6 20 2006 .............................................................................................................................................6 21 ..........................................................................................................................7 22 ..........................................................................................................................7 23 ..............................................................................................................................................7 24 ..................................................................................................................................................................8 25 ..........................................................................................................................................................8 26 ......................................................................................................................................................8 27 1961/62 ........................................................................................................9 28 2001/02 ............................................................................................................9 29 ..................................................................................................................................9 30 ..................................................................................................................................................9 31 ....................................................................................................................................10 32 ....................................................................................................................................11 33 ................................................................................................................................11 34 ............................................................................................................................................12 35 ........................................................................................................................................................12 36 ............................................................................................................................................12 37 ............................................................................................................................................12 38 ........................................................................................................................................13 39 ............................................................................................................................13 40 ................................................................................................................................................13 41 ............................................................................................................................................13 42 ....................................................................................................................................................14 43 ....................................................................................................................................14 44 ............................................................................................................................15 45 ................................................................................................................................................15 46 ............................................................................................................................................16 47 ........................................................................................................................................16 48 ................................................................................................................16 49 ................................................................................................................................................17 50 ........................................................................................................................................17 51 ................................................................................................................................18 52 ................................................................................................................................18 53 ................................................................................................................................................20 54 DAP ..............................................................................................................................................20 55 2004-2006 ..................................................................................................................20 56 1983-2007 ......................................................................................................................21 57 1983-2007 ..................................................................................................................21 58 ........................................................................................................................................22 59 ................................................................................................................................23 60 ............................................................................................................................24 61 ............................................................................................................................................24 62 ........................................................................................................................24 63 ............................................................................................................................................24
2008 6
64 ............................................................................................................................................24 65 ........................................................................................................................................25 66 ........................................................................................................................................................26 67 ............................................................................................................................26 68 ....................................................................................................................27 69 ................................................................................................................27 70 ........................................................................................................................................27 71 ............................................................................................................................28 72 ....................................................................................................................................29 73 ................................................................................................................................................30 74 ........................................................................................................................................................30 75 ....................................................................................................................................31 76 ............................................................................................................................................31 77 ........................................................................................................................................31 78 ....................................................................................................................................................32 79 MAP .................................................................................................................................................32 80 ....................................................................................................................................................32 81 DAP ..................................................................................................................................................32 82 ................................................................................................................................................32 83 ................................................................................................................................................32 84 ............................................................................................................................................33 85 / ...............................................................................................................33 86 ........................................................................................................................................34 87 ................................................................................................................................................34 88 ............................................................................................................................34 89 ................................................................................................................................34 90 ................................................................................................................................35 91 ................................................................................................................................................35 92 ............................................................................................................................35 93 ............................................................................................................................36 94 ........................................................................................................................36 95 ........................................................................................................................................37 96 ............................................................................................................................................................37 97 ........................................................................................................................................39 98 CPI ........................................................................................................................................39 99 CPI .................................................................................................................................39 100 CPI ..........................................................................................................................................39
2008 6
1 ....................................................................................................................5 2 ........................................................................................................................6 3 ..................................................................................................................................................10 4 2004 .................................................................................................................11 5 ......................................................................................................................................15 6 ..................................................................................................................................................18 7 ......................................................................................................................................................19 8 ......................................................................................................................................19 9 ......................................................................................................................21 10 ................................................................................................................................23 11 ................................................................................................................................................25 12 ....................................................................................................................................29 13 CPI .........................................................................................................................................38
1 2008 6
2006 92008
2008 4 218.254% 11.2%
1
2302008
2007
Dairy
Oils and Fats
Sugar
Meat
2007/08
Cereals
20062005
200
170
140
110 110
150
200
250
300
350
J F JM A A S O N DM J A M OJ J N J F M AA S
1998-2000 1998-2000
FAO
2008 417.6% 371 / 2006
120.8%
2008 4 2250.2 / 19.2% 06 139.8%
2 /
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2003
01
2003
07
2004
01
2004
07
2005
01
2005
07
2006
01
2006
07
2007
01
2007
07
2008
01
2
USDA
3 /
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2003
0120
0304
2003
0720
0310
2004
0120
0404
2004
0720
0410
2005
0120
0504
2005
0720
0510
2006
0120
0604
2006
0720
0610
2007
0120
0704
2007
0720
0710
2008
0120
0804
2
USDA
2008 24 465 /
4.7% 2006 9 189 / 146%
2 2008 6
20085
150% 962.6 /
4 /
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2003
0120
0305
2003
09
2004
0120
0405
2004
0920
0501
2005
0520
0509
2006
01
2006
0520
0609
2007
0120
0705
2007
0920
0801
2008
05
1
USDA
5 /
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2003
0120
0305
2003
0920
0401
2004
0520
0409
2005
0120
0505
2005
0920
0601
2006
0520
0609
2007
0120
0705
2007
0920
0801
2008
05
B
USDA
2008 5 36
6 36
FAO
20062008 4
168.9 2000 100 5% 0635.6% 07
10.26% 9.26 8.95%22.62% 9.04%
2006 2008 41607 / 2006 13.8%
2008 4 1611.16 / 200636.9%
3 2008 6
7 2003 2008 /
800900
10001100120013001400150016001700
200301 200310 200407 200504 200601 200610 200707 200804
3
8 2003 2008 /
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
200301 200310 200407 200504 200601 200610 200707 200804
20062008 4 2550.17 /
20.8% 21.6% 2008 4 2723.42 /2927.5 / 2635.83 / 2006
2.5% 5.5% 4.3% 6.5%
9 2003 2008 /
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
200301 200310 200407 200504 200601 200610 200707 200804
10 2003 2008 /
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
200301 200310 200407 200504 200601 200610 200707 200804
2006
2008 4 4781.61 / 2006 93.4%6.5%
2008 4 2006 5244 / 13596.3/159%
4 2008 6
11 2003 2008 /
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
200301 200310 200407 200504 200601 200610 200707 200804
3
12 2003 2008 /
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
200301 200310 200407 200504 200601 200610 200707 200804
21
13
20
15
10
50
02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
International Energy Agency FO Licht
14
43%
15%
32%
3%1% 6%U.S.
European Union
Brazil
China
India
Other countries
FO Licht
5 2008 6
2006 9 2007 821.5 20%
2010 75 40101
32
15
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
01-0
2
02-0
3
0 3-0
4
04-0
5
05-0
6
06-0
7
07-0
8e
08-0
9e
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
International Energy Agency FO Licht
16
0
100
200
300
400
2006
01
2006
04
2006
07
2006
10
2007
01
2007
04
2007
07
International Energy Agency FO Licht
2005-200790%
1 %
2005 4830 10,595 15,425
2006 30490 -14,081 16,409
2007 32890 10,958 43,848
68210 7472 75682
90.13% 9.87%
USDA
17
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
USDA FO Licht
18
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
USDA FO Licht
6 2008 6
19 2000-2007 /
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
actual biofuel growth 2000-2007 continuation of 1990-2000 biofuel growth
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
IFPRI
2000 48 2007 1602006
0.3%
08 09
20 2006
Fossil fuels
Nuclear
Traditional biomass
Large hydropower
Hot water/heating
Power generation
Biofuels
0.3%
0.3%
3%
13%
3%1%1%
Renewables 2007
2 2007
4966.5 64.1 30% 5%
6498.7 444.5 2015 150 2022360
608.4 1731.9 2010 5.75%2020 10%
422.7 29.9 5 10%
264.2 25.4 5% 2%
105.7 12 2008 10% 2012 5%
USDA, FO Licht
7 2008 6
2009 50%5000 35%
21 Million gallons
Brazil China CanadaEU USA
30,000
20,000
25,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
02004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
USDA
22 Million gallons
Canada Ukraine & Russia ArgentinaBrazil USA EU
3,0003,5004,000
2,0002,500
1,5001,000
5000
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
USDA
2008
2007 2010 6% 201514%
23
Price ratios January 2000=100300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Oil-to-corn
Oil-to-sugar
2006 2007
USDA
8 2008 6
24
Percent
1210
86420
Wor
ld
Dev
elop
ed
Dev
elop
ing
Chi
na
Indi
a
Uni
ted
Stat
es1975-90 1990-2000 2000-07
USDA
25
Percent
0
1
2
3
4
Wor
ld
Dev
elop
ed
Dev
elop
ing
Mid
dle
East
Afr
ica
Latin
Am
eric
a
USA
1975-90 1990-2000 2000-07
USDA
26
35001961-63 1971-73 1981-83 1991-93 2001-03
30002500200015001000
5000
FAO
9 2008 6
27 1961/62
60 6
9 4 3 3 2 13
1961-1963
FAO
28 2001/02
52
2001-2003
2 6
6 5 7 3 10
FAO
29
3,000otherMeatVegetable oilspulsesSugar
other cerealsRoots and tubers
wheat
Rice
20301997-19991964-1966
2,500
2,000
Die
tary
ene
rgy
supp
hyK
cal/p
erso
n pe
r day
1,500
1,000
500
0
FAO
2.6 6.5 7
30
Feed-to-meat conversion rates
Class of aninal
Pounds of feed needed toproduce 1 pound of meat
Chicken
Pork
Beef
2.6
6.5
7.0
USDA
10 2008 6
1961
31
101600140012001000
800600400200
061 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05
2402101801501209060300
FAO
3 %
1979-1981 1989-1991 1999-2001 2003 2004 1979-1981 1989-1991 1999-2001 2003 2004
286488 390171 420308 376123 413166 18.21 20.49 20.16 18.03 18.20
301133 292217 334614 348897 389066 19.14 15.35 16.05 16.73 17.14
138182 195478 238012 233406 232360 8.78 10.27 11.42 11.19 10.23
- 67190 65562 76231 - - 3.22 3.14 3.36
46078 57683 63426 54940 70534 2.93 3.03 3.04 2.63 3.11
33605 51258 60484 63024 65314 2.14 2.69 2.90 3.02 2.88
30805 37702 50148 67453 63812 1.96 1.98 2.41 3.23 2.81
42727 52917 49502 50174 52684 2.72 2.78 2.37 2.41 2.32
32044 37910 46473 39426 51097 2.04 1.99 2.23 1.89 2.25
20983 27987 37960 40876 41044 1.33 1.47 1.82 1.96 1.81
24579 19988 36569 33961 34212 1.56 1.05 1.75 1.63 1.51
1573227 1903961 2084615 2085774 2270360
FAO
7080
11 2008 6
32
10 , ,
%%
200180160140120100
80604020
062 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04
70635649423528211470
FAO
33
1014
12
10
8
6
4
2
062 64 66 68 70 70 70 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04
FAO
2008
4 2004
265242 2931852 343151 1275244 5155555 0 27 12917 197 90222 50.65
345673 832797 472422 1875285 3618607 455 324301 238089 112117 834224 27.84
11099 1431563 82372 660409 2208889 41 57 1377 3 6753 22.02
6610 745120 184952 617765 2025147 0 7413 1039 49269 71591 19.54
214262 340243 72293 1269318 2004347 532 44815 380698 47786 615489 13.89
4872 298350 29192 1026463 1381789 0 0 0 0 1719 13.80
0 475 0 25 2865 1629 155704 1478077 322056 2000731 (19.98)
12 2008 6
1995 10340 537 202953 235554 2 139814 2696248 7 2848087 (26.13)
21 4547 3433 133 12857 31781 1193805 73940 1365480 2697348 (26.84)
7164 253426 151938 2981 437082 254870 60508 1771 2688815 3334114 (28.97)
85 332 44541 39 46493 957696 4453 28354 3089044 4203101 (41.57)
3639 195743 310423 48942 654221 800251 1456646 77205 2553108 5179563 (45.25)
FAO
34
12
10
8
6
4
2
01990 1995 2000 2005
Million metric tonsRestof world
EU,FSU,&OE1
latin America3
N.Africa&M.East
Other Asia2
China
India
USDA
35
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
01990 1995 2000 2005
Million metric tons
Other
EU,FSU,&OE1
Indonesia
latin America2
Sub-Saharan Afrlca
N.Africa&M.East
Other Asia
USDA
20
20003 90 1
36
Figure 1:Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Region
DevelopingCountriesDeveloped
Countries
Emis
sion
sTg
CO
2 eq
uiva
lent 35
35
25
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Tg CO2=Teragrams Carbon Dioxide
20
15
10
5
0
Oxfam
37
26%
19%
17%
14%
13%
8% 3%
Oxfam
13 2008 6
1850 13 1995 2007 12100 1.1-6.4
38
Year
constant CO2
1900
4
4
2
1
0Glo
bal S
urfa
ce W
arm
ing
C
variability between modelshigh growth A2moderate growth A1B
low growth B2
emissionscenarios
2000 2100
Oxfam
39
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-2001800 1850 1900 1950
Year
Instrumental record Projectionsof the futre
Estimatesof the past
2000 2050 2100
Sea
leve
l cha
nge
mm
Oxfam
40
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
20 80 2005
Oxfam
41
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 2006
Oxfam
2004
0.53 -5
14 2008 6
8090
20062%
42
14.013.813.613.413.213.012.812.612.4
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
43
FAO
15 2008 6
5
1961-76 1977-91 1992-2005 1961-2005
3.5 1.8 1.3 2.2
3.9 2.8 1.5 2.8
2.9 4.8 4.2 4.0
3.1 5.0 4.9 4.4
3.4 2.3 0.8 2.2
3.1 3.5 1.2 2.6
0.8 1.5 0.9 1.1
0.5 1.0 1.4 1.0
1.3 0.5 1.5 1.1
3.0 1.6 2.2 2.3
1.8 3.2 4.7 3.2
1.9 4.4 6.1 4.1
3.0 3.4 3.6 3.4
4.6 7.0 6.0 5.9
3.5 3.0 2.6 3.0
4.3 5.3 4.8 4.8
1.6 1.4 1.2 1.4
2.7 3.3 3.8 3.2
FAO
30
2007/2008 20.58
44
450
500
550
600
650
700
1964
/196
519
67/1
968
1970
/197
119
73/1
974
1976
/197
719
79/1
980
1982
/198
319
85/1
986
1988
/198
919
91/1
992
1994
/199
519
97/1
998
2000
/200
120
03/2
004
2006
/200
7
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
45
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1964
/196
5
1968
/196
9
1972
/197
3
1976
/197
7
1980
/198
1
1984
/198
5
1988
/198
9
1992
/199
3
1996
/199
7
2000
/200
1
2004
/200
5
-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
16 2008 6
46
0100000200000300000400000500000600000700000
1964
/196
519
67/1
968
1970
/197
119
73/1
974
1976
/197
719
79/1
980
1982
/198
319
85/1
986
1988
/198
919
91/1
992
1994
/199
519
97/1
998
2000
/200
120
03/2
004
2006
/200
7
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%
( )
47
020406080
100120140160
1965
/196
619
67/1
968
1969
/197
019
71/1
972
1973
/197
419
75/1
976
1977
/197
819
79/1
980
1981
/198
219
83/1
984
1985
/198
619
87/1
988
1989
/199
019
91/1
992
1993
/199
419
95/1
996
1997
/199
819
99/2
000
2001
/200
220
03/2
004
2005
/200
6
2.4.2
1999 98%286% 547%
48
Index January 1992=100Oil All commodities Food commodities
600550500450400350300250200
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000Monthly
2002 2004 2006 2008
150100
500
USDA
17 2008 6
49
1991-1992 =100200
150
100
50
0
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
USDA
2002
50
Index values 2000=100130
120
110
100
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
90
80
70
60
USDA
18 2008 6
51
$ billion
Emerging Asia excluding China
China
Japan OPECRussia
1,6001,6001,2001,000
800
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
600400200
0
USDA
52
6
28.5 3 10% 1
37.5 1.9 20%
10.05 0.2043
21 1.41
7.5 0.334
3.75 0.4
19.3 4.8 12% 1
18 13
19 2008 6
7 % 2006 2007E 2008F 08 07
2 013.3 2 111.9 2 191.9 3.8
255.5 261.9 251.8 -3.9
2 064.8 2 127.2 2 176.0 2.3
994 1 006.6 1 002.1 1.5
741.4 756.8 760.3 0.5
329.3 363.8 393.5 8.2
427.2 408.8 421.3 3.1
20.69 19.22 19.36 0.74
FAO
FAO 2008 21.923.8% 8.7% 7.796
07/08 2.208 6%08 09
8 % 2006 2007E 2008F 08 07
429.1 435.2 445.3 2.3
31 28.9 29.8 3.2
426.7 437.1 444.9 1.8
371.9 378.6 384.2 1.5
105.5 105 105.8 0.8
24.72 24.02 23.78 -1.0
2006 2007E 2008F 08 07
596.7 605.1 658 8.7
113.1 110 110.5 0.4
620.6 618.1 634.8 2.7
442.3 445.5 452.8 1.7
113 109.2 117.8 7.8
65.3 63.4 64.1 1.1
159.5 144.5 167.6 16
25.70 23.38 26.40 12.93
2006 2007E 2008F 08 07
987.5 1 071.6 1088.6 1.6
111.3 123 111.5 -9.4
1017.5 1072 1096.3 2.3
179.8 182.6 185.1 1.4
616.3 635.9 630.4 -0.9
221.3 253.5 280.9 10.8
162.2 159.4 148 -7.1
15.94 14.87 13.50 -9.21
FAO
20 2008 6
Celeres08/09 40%
53
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
9801
0998
0709
9901
0999
0709
0001
0900
0709
0101
0901
0709
0201
0902
0709
0301
0903
0709
0401
0904
0709
0501
0905
0709
0601
0906
0709
0701
0907
0709
0801
09
54 DAP
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
9801
0998
0709
9901
0999
0709
0001
0900
0709
0101
0901
0709
0201
0902
0709
0301
0903
0709
0401
0904
0709
0501
0905
0709
0601
0906
0709
0701
0907
0709
0801
09
20% 20102007
7% 22%
20071/6
55 2004-2006
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
21 2008 6
56 1983-2007
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 20070%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
57 1983-2007
-1000-500
0500
10001500200025003000
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%
9
2/3 2/3
30%
20%
60%
22 2008 6
58
2003 2007 36%
23 2008 6
10 % 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2006 2003
640 682 733 826 29.1
773 801 836 936 21.1
819 820 887 1018 24.4
1363 1412 1436 1565 14.8
888 923 974 1096 23.4
702 699 767 840 19.7
07 03
781 802 855 953 1060 35.7
59 /
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-
3-5
-
2008 30.6%2006
24 2008 6
60
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1Q08
1997 100
61
0
100
200
300
400
500
1978
1985
1988
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
62
0
50
100
150
200
250
1978
1985
1988
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
63
050
100150200250300350
1978
1985
1988
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
64
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1978
1985
1988
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
25 2008 6
80 90
12 3
2004
65
1979-1992 1992-2003 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
12
11 %
2004 116 28.5 1 145.5 11.41 2005 132 38.7 3 173.7 13.22 2006 142 41.5 6 120 309.5 23.31 2007 151 51 20 276 498 37.31 2008 151 104 63 638 956 71.98 08 07 0.00% 103.92% 215.00% 131.16% 91.97% 92.93%
26 2008 6
WTO 8.5%900
66
2006 2.57
67
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
01990 1994 1998 2002 2006
2.57
27 2008 6
68
-1000
100200300400500600700
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1988
1985
2005
69
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1985
1988
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
70
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%%
28 2008 6
197920%
1984 40731988-1989 13.2% 26.7% 1990
1994 50%1996 42% 1998 5213
2003 200430%
71
300003200034000360003800040000420004400046000
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
01020304050607080
/
WTO
29 2008 6
72
10%
10%
12 %
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08E 2008/09F
417409 432512 440500 440800
2426 1115 1130 1100
419835 433627 441630 441900
244100 240000 239000 240000
113300 113100 116300 121100
35900 40350 42500 45500
12100 11930 12000 12000
15100 12900 12650 13200
420500 418280 422450 431800
5700 8316 5100 3900
426199 426596 427550 435700
-6364 7031 14080 6200
111309 118340 132420 138620
26.47 28.29 31.35 32.10
FAO
30 2008 6
73
08
74
........
2008
31 2008 6
75
720007400076000780008000082000840008600088000
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
050100150200250300350400
76
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
050100150200250300350400
77
3000031000320003300034000350003600037000380003900040000
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
050100150200250300350400
200750%
2008 1 415% 30%
32 2008 6
78 /
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2006
01
2006
03
2006
05
2006
07
2006
09
2006
11
2007
01
2007
03
2007
05
2007
07
2007
09
2007
11
2008
01
2008
03
79 MAP
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2007
06
2007
07
2007
08
2007
09
2007
10
2007
11
2007
12
2008
01
2008
02
2008
03
2008
04
80 /
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2004
12
2005
03
2005
06
2005
09
2005
12
2006
03
2006
06
2006
09
2006
12
2007
03
2007
06
2007
09
2007
12
2008
03
81 DAP
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2006
01
2006
03
2006
05
2006
07
2006
09
2006
12
2007
01
2007
03
May
-20
2007
07
2007
09
2007
12
2008
01
2008
03
4 5 0722% 07 26%
34 /40 /
82
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
83
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
10%-15% 200960-80 /
33 2008 6
2006 13.0756
84
50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%
1952
1962
1970
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
43.90%
85 /
1957
1981
1983
1985
1990
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
50454035302520151050
42.53
25.54
/ /
2005 9
34 2008 6
86
y = -10.629x 2 + 956.65x + 30481R2 = 0.9065
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
87
13000
12800
12600
12400
12200
12000
118001999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
88
80000820008400086000880009000092000940009600098000
100000
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
89
48%
35%
14%
5% -2%
MOA
35 2008 6
90 /
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
MOA
91
y=-1.0606x2+83.485x+3586.1
R2=0.9105
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
92
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1998 2007
36 2008 6
93
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1964/1965 1972/1973 1980/1981 1988/1989 1996/1997 2004/2005
USDA
201530%70%
550 / 40%
10%800
94
USDA
37 2008 6
50% 36%10%
95
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
80% 34%29% 1% 0.187%
1% 0.187%
96
70 ~8278 60
2007
38 2008 6
1.75 / 2006 13%464.05 2006 15.2%
2006 910 2008
4 12.21% 14.6% 13.7%
30%3 5
90 60
1%0.17%
CPI
CPI 2003 102000
2003 4.31 19902004
2004 4.726.2 2004
3.9 CPI 3.3
2005 4.842005
CPI 2005 1.424.8
2005 2.9 7 CPI0.9 2.4
2005 CPI
2006 42006 2.7 2005 1.3
2007 CPI
2008 4 CPI 12 8.5% CPI22.1% 7.4% CPI
86.6 CPI
13 CPI
CPI
1 0.9 0.877
0.9 1 0.947
CPI 0.877 0.947 1
39 2008 6
97
y = 0.5327x + 49.04
R2
= 0.8096
100
110
120
130
140
150
100 120 140 160
98 CPI
R2 = 0.7697
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
100 120 140 160 180
CPIy = 0.3496x + 67.056
CPICPI
CPI
99 CPI
80
100
120
140
160
180
1994
01
1995
03
1996
05
1997
07
1998
09
1999
11
2001
01
2002
03
2003
05
2004
07
2005
09
2006
11
2008
01CPI
Wind
100 CPI
1614
1970 1980 1990 2000 2007
1210
86400
FoodCPIOverallCPI
porc
xxxx
xxxx
18.7% CPI 10.52%1% CPI 0.06%
40 2008 6
CPICPI 0.4
2005 2006 2007 2008 CPI 33.6 33.2 32.832.74% CPI
41 2008 6
2008
300 20%
300 5% 20%
300 -10% 5%
300 10%
300 10%
300 -10% 10%
1.
66
300
2.
6300
300 10%
: 6 (100004) 528
21 2001207088
A 518040 1
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