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IT’S GETTING HOT IN HERE! Climate Change and the limits to expansion
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IT’S GETTING HOT IN HERE!
Climate Change and the limits to expansion
The Dilemma
To lift people out of poverty, we need to produce more – the poor need to consume more resources and need to have jobs to finance this consumption
Economic growth means more energy consumption and production
Climate change is occurring because we are burning more fossil fuels as they are the most economically efficient form of energy
To slow the effects of climate change we need to radically reduce our energy use
Today
How is the climate changing?
Producing our changing climate
Who suffers from climate change?
The capitalist dilemma
To what extent should developing nations be forced to reduce their carbon emissions?
A whole new world
Geologists classify the history of the planet into geological epochs
The current epoch – the Holocene – began 11,700 years ago
The International Commission on Stratigraphy are considering whether to introduce a new geological epoch: the ‘Anthropocene’
Anthropocene
The Anthropocene, which would begin around 1850, signals the presence of humanity as the singularly dominant planetary force
If for the majority of human history we have been dominated by nature, humanity has now become a ‘natural force’
What happens to ecosystems of this planet is primarily dependent on human behaviour, which has lead to an unprecedented ecological crisis
The greening of our time
Climate change is one of the defining movements of y/our generation
Climate change, or global warming, has become embedded in our consciousness
Recycling, ‘green’ products and energy efficiency have become part of our everyday lives
Was learning about climate change part of
your education?
Climate change refers to changes in the environment and includes both global changes and localised effects
Global warming is the specific process by which global temperatures are increasing through the accumulation of ‘greenhouse’ gases in the atmosphere
The Earth has an atmosphere of ‘Greenhouse gases’ (mostly water vapour, carbon dioxide and methane) that traps heat: heat from the Sun enters, some stays
If the planet didn’t have this atmosphere, like the Moon, it would be frozen
If the Earth had an atmosphere like Venus, which is 96% carbon dioxide (the Earth is around 0.03-0.04%), temperatures would be close to 500 degrees
Changing climate
The ‘Greenhouse’ effect
We are burning lots of carbon in fossil fuels (approx. 70% of all carbon emissions), creating carbon dioxide
CO2 has risen from 280 parts per million (ppm) in 1850 to 393ppm in 2013 (and has passed 400 at some points)
Emitting carbon
Other sources
Making concrete: Heating calcium carbonate (about 3% of the total)
Other greenhouse gases: Principally methane (30%)
The ‘contrails’ of high-flying planes
Deforestation: Trees absorb carbon and this carbon is released from the dead trees
The temperature is rising
The average temperature of the planet has risen by around .85C degrees since 1850 and, since 1990, global surface temperatures have warmed at a rate of about 0.15°C per decade
Changes are extremely varied, but are measured at 7,000 stations around the world
Most predictions to 2050 range between 2 and 6 degrees of warming, depending on our ability to reduce emissions and the reaction of the environment
What worries you most about climate change?
The end of the world?
Films have often featured apocalyptic environmental scenarios
The world will not blow up, but it will make it significantly harder for some people to live in some places
Rising sea-levels will flood some areas
More regular natural disasters will make living in some places unviable
Rising temperatures will melt mountain snow, drying up rivers and ending vital sources of water
Rising temperatures will make growing crops in some areas impossible
Rise in ‘natural’ disasters
Sea levels
The economics of emissions
The world economy has increased by a factor of eight since 1950
The global population has risen from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 7 billion today
Economic growth, combined with population growth, is likely to increase the size of the global economy by US$420 trillion by 2050 (an increase of six times)
The more we consume, the more needs to be produced, the more that is produced
(at the moment) the more carbon is emitted and the more resources are used
The 2012 Environmental Outlook to 2050 report from OECD suggests the likely quadrupling of the global economy would increase world energy demand by 80% to 2050.
Do you actively seek to reduce your ecological
footprint?
Uneven effects
Climate change affects the world very differently, particularly the viability of living in certain environments
A 2009 ‘Human Impact’ report from Oxfam suggested that 300,000 people a year are dying from climate change
Wealthier nations have a greater capacity to adapt to climatic changes and richer peoples are better able to purchase scarcer and more expense resources
The poor poor
Low-lying Pacific Islands will become uninhabitable due to rising sea-levels
Whilst some Northern areas will get wetter, desertification will increase in the subtropics
Melting mountain/glacier snow in Latin America and Asia will reduce water available for drinking, cleaning and growing food
Crop yields are likely to fall drastically in some areas, although it is possible they will rise over all
Hungrier people
As the global population rises to 9 billion by 2050, food demand is likely to rise by 14% whilst production stalls
Most of the poorest people in the world are unable to adapt to rapid changes in their living conditions and will most likely have to migrate to more equipped areas
They are also subject to fluctuations in food prices caused by falling crop yields
Hangrier People
Nothing creates human aggression like hunger
The rising global population, which is almost all in the urban areas of the developing world, is going to lead to a lot more hunger and conflict over scare resources
Some of these conflicts will be in the most volatile parts of the world
Nuclear Anger
The North-West Passage
Negotiating the future
The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference will be held in Paris at the end of the year
The goal is to achieve a legally binding climate change agreement from all the countries in the world, with the goal to keep global warming under two degrees
Previous conferences have failed to reach binding agreements because of a split between developed and developing countries
Developed nations have produced the most carbon emissions, but developing nations will produce the most in the future
What is a developing nation?
Sharing the guilt
Whilst many Western economies are gradually reducing their carbon emissions, they rely on developing nations to manufacture goods
We consume large amounts of consumer goods that are made in factories fuelled by coal
The Western world also relied on these cheap technologies to develop, which makes it politically difficult to ask developing nations to stop
Do richer countries have a responsibility to
sacrifice for the good of the rest?
Flying and climate change
Flying causes 4-9% of total carbon emissions, despite being a global niche industry
CO2 emissions from international aviation have increased 83 per cent since 1990 and are the fastest growing source of CO2 emissions
The aviation industry is predicted to grow globally by 4-5% to 2050
A return flight from London to New York produces one person’s total ‘carbon allowance’ of 1.2t of CO2
We each produce 9.5t but need to cut this by 87% to 1.2t
Would you…? a) Ban flying b) Heavily tax flying c) Take no action
The Problem
If ending poverty requires an expansion of global production (capitalism) so that more people have more resources…
… and the climate change is stimulated by economic production
Then we have a direct contradiction between the needs of capitalism and the needs of the people
Buy nothing day
The most obviously solution to climate change is to reduce our consumption
This can come from reducing energy consumption, but also buy purchasing less and moving to a ‘post-growth world’
‘Buy nothing day’ is the strongest example of this demand
Produce nothing day
Whilst reducing consumption seems like a great idea, it ignores the dynamics of capitalism
Not only does capitalism need to keep expanding, such that reduced consumption means less profit
But the people who feel reductions in production most are those doing the producing
Should we try to consume less?
In summary
Increases in economic production fuelled by carbon-based energy have caused significant increases in carbon emissions
These carbon emissions are having a substantial affect upon local and global environments
The affects upon people are very different and are often split between rich and poor nations
More reading
Next Week
PEOPLE MOVERS: URBANISATION AND MIGRATION
Readings
Core reading: Chapter One, Davis, Mike (2006) Planet of Slums. London: Verso.
See also: Ash, A. (1997).Placing Globalization. Theory, Culture & Society. 14 (2), pp.123-137
Fasenfest, D. (2011). The 21st Century Urban Landscape: Plus ça change. Critical Sociology. 38 (1) pp.3-5
Reflective assessment
Marks were lower than usual, primarily because a number of students did not address the question
The average was 58%, 5 A’s, 21 B’s, 11 C’s, 10 D’s and 2 E’s
A lack of engagement with sociological ideas was another significant issue
I have noted a range of issues with your writing styles/referencing – please address these
Working with feedback
The purpose of the feedback is to help you learn and to improve, not just to justify your mark
If you don’t understand, email me or make a time to see me
Make sure that you do not repeat the same mistakes
