31
German – South African Business Relation 9 May 2018 – Rechtsanwalt Frank Aletter, LL.M.
German – South African Business Relation 9 May 2018 – Rechtsanwalt Frank Aletter, LL.M.
Content
A. South Africa at a Glance
B. Strong provinces
C. Trade Relations
D. The German Chamber
Network
A. South Africa at a Glance
Economy overview
GDP growth in % (2007 – 2017)
Slow growth due to political
uncertainty
Volatile currencey
Partial implementation of the
National Development Plan is
expected
Government has increased taxes and
lowered public expenses
Discussion about „Expropriation
without Compensation“ puts a strain
on investment
Comments
010
C…
5,4
3,2
-1,5
3 3,3
2,2 2,3
1,6 1,3
0,6
1,3 1,5*
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
*2018 forecast
Source: GTAI
South Africa – global context
Source: Destatis
Most important export countries for Germany outside Europe 2017 (in Billion Euro)
111,53
86,22
21,46
19,53
17,47
12,91
11,09
10,69
9,68
9,53
9,44
8,46
7,68
6,87
6,59
0,00 20,00 40,00 60,00 80,00 100,00 120,00
USA
VR China
Turkey
Japan
Korean Republic
Mexico
UAE
India
Canada
South Africa
Australia
Brasil
Taiwan
Hongkong
Saudi-Arabia
South Africa – African context
Source: GTAI
22.5
25.8
8.1
5.2
5.1
33.3 South Afrtica
Nigeria
Angola
Kenya
Ethopia
Other countries
South Africa‘s economy compared with other African countries (GDP share in 2017 in
Subsahara-Africa)
Trade: SADC – Germany
SADC – Export to Germany, 2017
Trade: SADC – Germany
SADC – Import from Germany, 2017
Source: DEstatis
Botswana
DR Kongo
Lesotho
Madagascar
Malawi
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
South Africa
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
South Africa
Botswana
DR Kongo
Lesotho
Madagascar
Malawi
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
South Africa
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
South Africa
South Africa – in the region
Impact of the tourism sector on the South African economy
Source: StatsSA
2,9%
GDP contribution of the toursim sector 1 of 23 employees work in the toursim sector*
*4,4% of
employees
Soiurce: StatsSA
20%
18%
15%
13%
10%
8%
6%
4%
4%
3%
2%
Finance
Public
Trade
Manufacturing
Transport
Mining
Private Services
Construction
Services
Tourism
Agriculture
Industrty share: Contribution to GDP (GVA)
3.571
3.178
2.275
1.692
1.431
1.283
910
874
687
444
118
Society
Trade
Finance
Maunfacturing
Construction
Private household
Transport
Agriculture
Tourism
Mining
Services
Employees (in 1000)
GVA of toursim is higher than mining More people work in the toursim industry than in
the mining sector
Impact of the tourism sector on the South African economy
SWOT Analysis of South Africa
Large sales market with almost 54 million
inhabitants
Relatively good infrastructure
Broad industrial base that allows the entry
into the African continent
Stable political situation
Strengths
Skills shortage
Electricity shortages and losses: problems
for energy-intensive industries
Lack of management skills
High crime rate
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Large state infrastructure programs
Rising demand for electricity provides
opportunities for renewable energy
High import demand especially for
machines and plants
Consuming growing middle class
Threats
Source: GTaI
Rising energy prices
Social imbalances and protests could
undermine the long-term stability of the
country
Frequent and often wild strike action
Growing conflicts over economic policy
B. Strong provinces
Gautengs economy has approx. the same size as Mococco
Source: StatsSA
Provinces compared with countries with a
similar GDP, 2016
KwaZulu-Natal
Composition of the province’s demographics in % Comments
Quelle: Statistics SA
• Size: 94 361 km2
• Share of land area: 7.7%
• Share of national population:
19.6%
• Number of households: 2.83
million
• Gini coefficient: 0.61
[VALUE]
2,4 1
7,1
Black - 89.4%
White - 2.4%
Coloured - 1.0%
Asian/ Indian - 7.1%
KwaZulu-Natal
Proportions of provincial GDP in % Comments
Quelle: Statistics SA
• Contribution to national GDP:
16.0%
• Provincial GDP: 649.1 bn ZAR
• GDP per head: R44,584
• GDP growth rate: 0.8%
• Manufacturing is the largest
contributor to provincial GDP
• Assessed taxpayers as a
proportion of SA total: 14.1%
• Unemployment rate: 24%
[VALUE]
1,3
16,1
3,5 4,3
13,7 12,4
15,3
5,5
14,3
Agriculture
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas & Water
Construction
Trade
Transport
Finance
Community, Social & Personal Services
General Government Services
Western Cape
Composition of the province’s demographics in % Comments
Quelle: Statistics SA
• Size: 129 462 km2
• Share of land area: 10.6%
• Share of national population:
11.5%
• Number of households: 1.83
million
• Gini coefficient: 0.6
[VALUE]
16,5
49,7
0,6
Black - 33.3%
White - 16.5%
Coloured - 49.7%
Asian/ Indian - 0.6%
Western Cape
Proportions of provincial GDP in % Comments
Quelle: Statistics SA
• Contribution to national GDP:
13.6%
• Provincial GDP: 552.7 bn ZAR
• GDP per head: R66,937
• GDP growth rate: 1.5%
• Finance is the largest
contributor to provincial GDP
• Assessed taxpayers as a
proportion of SA total: 15.8%
• Unemployment rate: 20.7%
[VALUE]
0,2
13,7
2,6
5,3
15,4
10
22,9
6,1
10,2
Agriculture
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas & Water
Construction
Trade
Transport
Finance
Community, Social & Personal Services
General Government Services
C. Trade Relations
South Africa – bilateral relations
Source: StatsSA
18.1%
11.8%
6.7%
4.2%
3.8% 3.4%
3%
49%
China (VR)
Germany
USA
India
Saudi-Arabia
Japan
France
Other countries
Main export countries 2016, share in %
Trade between Germany and South Africa
Trade: Germany– South Africa
Comment
Billions Euro 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Imports from South Africa to Germany 5,1 4,7 4,9 5,9 5,1 7,3
Exports to South Africa from Germany 8,8 8,5 8,3 9,6 7,5 9,5
Total 13,9 13,2 13,2 15,5 12,6 16,8
Balance 3,7 3,8 3,4 3,7 2,4 2,2
Germany is South Africa’s
• Second most important exporter
• Third most important importer
Doing Business Report World Bank (2018): 82
Ranking Trading Partners (2016): 28
Trade between Germany and Mozambique
Trade: Germany– Mozambique
Comment
Million Euro 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Imports from Mozambique to Germany 124,9 153,6 120,7 150,2 136,2 237,5
Exports to Mozambique from Germany 63,5 91,7 92,4 120,7 55,6 56,4
Total 188,4 245,3 213,1 270,9 191,8 293,9
Balance 61,4 61,9 28,3 29,5 80,6 181,1
Ranking Trading Partners (2017): 109
Doing Business Report World Bank (2018): 138
Trade between Germany and Zambia
Trade: Germany– Zambia
Comment
Million Euro 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Imports from Zambia to Germany 34,3 32,0 23,5 25,7 35,8 52,6
Exports to Zambia from Germany 89,0 153,3 78,7 58,0 55,1 62,3
Total 123,3 185,3 101,6 83,7 90,0 114,9
Balance -54,7 -121,3 -54,6 -32,3 -19,3 -9,7
Ranking Trading Partners (2017): 135
Doing Business Report World Bank (2018): 85
Trade between Germany and Zimbabwe
Trade: Germany– Zimbabwe
Comment
Million Euro 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Imports from Zimbabwe to Germany 49,2 58,6 55,5 40,8 62,3 59,2
Exports to Zimbabwe from Germany 57,3 37,8 31,4 45,1 27,2 28,2
Total 106,5 96,4 86,9 85,9 89,5 87,4
Balance -8,1 20,8 24,1 -4,3 35,1 31,0
Ranking Trading Partners (2017): 145
Doing Business Report World Bank (2018): 159
German Foreign Direct Investment into South Africa
German FDI
(in Mio. EUR)
Since 2009 German FDI into
processing trade has been
decreasing
Re-investinstment is taking
place
Reasons: negative market
development, Change in
investment framework
(amendment of B-BBEE
scorecard, visa regulations,
water and electricity supply,
lack of skilled worker)
Comments
Source: Deutsche Bundesbank
4,697
4,043
5,281
6,082
5,668 5,81
4,993
5,969
5,336
6,558
3,489 3,108
4,063 3,875
3,604 3,694
2,476
3,038
2,597
3,178
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
All sectors Processing Trade
D. The German Chamber Network
Algeria|Angola|Argentina|Australia|Austria|Azerbaijan|Baltic States|Belarus|Belgium|
Bolivia|Bosnia-Herzegovina|Brazil|Bulgaria|Canada|Central America|Central
Asia|Chile|China|Columbia|Costa Rica|Croatia|Czech Republic|Denmark|
Dominican Republic|Ecuador|Egypt|El Salvador|Estonia|Finland|France
Ghana|Greece|Guatemala|Honduras|Hongkong|Hungary|Iceland|India|Indonesia
Iran|Iraq|Ireland|Israel|Italy|Japan|Kazakhstan|Kenya|Korea|Latvia|
Lithuania|Luxemburg|Macedonia|Malaysia|Mexiko|Morocco|Myanmar|Netherlands|
New Zealand|Nicaragua|Nigeria|Norway|Oman|Panama|Paraguay|Peru|
Philippines|Poland|Portugal|Qatar|Romania|Russia|Saudi-Arabia|Serbia|
Singapore|Slovakia|Slovenia|Southern Africa|Spain|Sweden|Switzerland|
Taiwan|Thailand|Tunisia|Turkey|Ukraine|United Arab Emirates|
United Kingdom|Uruguay|USA|Venezuela|Vietnam
Worldwide support with 130 offices in 90 countries
The Chamber Network in Africa
Kapstadt
Johannesburg
Durban
Maputo
Lusaka
Lagos Accra
Nairobi
14 locations in 12 countries
representing in total:
93 % German Exports
88 % German Imports
Cape Town
Representation in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape
Competence Centre: Sustainable Energies
The AHK Southern Africa serves 12 countries with
5 offices
Johannesburg
Head Office of the SA-German Chamber of Commerce
Management‘s headquarters
Competence Centres for Mineral Resources, and CSR & Training
Durban
Representation in KwaZulu Natal
Main focus: industry and Durban port development
Maputo, Mozambique
First office established outside of South Africa
Main focus: Market development, i.a. raw materials and infrastructure
Lusaka, Zambia
Second office established outside of South Africa
Main focus: Market development, i.a. mining and mineral resources
Ghana
Mr Maximilian Butek
Email: [email protected]
Website: http://ghana.ahk.de
Delegation Offices in Sub-Saharan Africa
Angola
Mr Ricardo Gerigk
Email: [email protected]
Website: http://angola.ahk.de
Kenya
Ms Maren Diale-Schellschmidt
Email: [email protected]
Website: http://www.kenia.ahk.de
Nigeria
Mr Marc Lucassen
Email: [email protected]
Website: http://nigeria.ahk.de
The three pillars of the Chamber
Business Services Networking
Trade Promotion
The three pillars of the Chamber
Service provider for companies
Service brand: DEinternational
e.g. Market studies, events,
workshops, etc.
Official representation of
German industry and commerce
Promoting the interests of
German companies in southern
Africa
Promote, inform about the
German economy
Member organisation
Collective strength of members
More than 600 companies are part of
our network
Thank you for your attention!
