9:45 Markit Manufacturing 56.3 12/16 55.8 56.5 0.7 0.18 C ... › uploads › 2021 › 01 ›...

Time Event Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P

10:00 ISM Manufacturing 56.5 12/1 -0.5 1.13

All Day Total Vehicle Sales 15.65 mln 12/1 -0.55 1.13

Last Report

Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P Best Worst

9:45 Markit Manufacturing 56.3 12/16 55.8 56.5 0.7 0.18 C Disc Util

10:00 Construction Spending 1.0 12/1 0.8 1.3 0.5 1.13 Tel Svcs Indu

10:00 Fed's Evans Speaks About Economy and Fed Policy

10:00 Fed's Bostic Speaks on Economy

12:15 Fed's Mester Speals at AEA Meeting

Last Report

Upgrades

Ticker Firm From To

ALGN Evercore Inline Outperf

GS Barclays Mkt Wgt Overwgt

HIG JP Morgan Neutral Overwgt

MS Barclays Mkt Wgt Overwgt

NWL Jefferies Hold Buy

T Ray James Mkt Perf Outperf

Downgrades

Ticker Firm From To

AIG Wells Fargo Overwgt Mkt Wgt

BA Bernstein Mkt Perf Underperf

BLL Baird Outperf Neutral

KO RBC Capital Outperf Mkt Perf

PGR Wells Fargo Mkt Wgt Underwgt

SWK B of A Neutral Underperf

Initiations/Reiterations

Ticker Firm Action Rating

ABNB B of A Initiated Neutral

ABNB Goldman Initiated Neutral

ABNB M Stanley Initiated Outperf

AI B of A Initiated Neutral

AI JP Morgan Initiated Underwgt

DASH Goldman Initiated Neutral

- US Futures Pick Up 2021 Right Where 2020 Left Off.

- Euro Area Manufacturing Grows at Fastest Pace in 2.5 Years.

Trading Up ($):

TSLA (16.67), MSTR (16.45), AMZN (14.07), FLIR (9.52), ROKU (9.48), GS (4.29)

Trading Down ($):

QS (-11.45), AI (-3.75), NFLX (-2.85), CALA (-2.79), BA (-2.24), GNW (-1.07)-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

ange

Asia Opens

Europe Opens

Today’s Events

Stock Specific News of Note

Noteworthy Macro EventsOther MarketsOvernight Trading

Tomorrow

Overnight Trading

Analyst Actions

Indicators/EventsMarket Timing Model

© Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

Earnings Reports

Economic Indicators & Events

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For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward1

Ticker News

AVGO Barron's says stock offers an attractive blend of growth and value in the chip space.

BAC Barron's says stock is cheap versus the market and its historical valuation.

CVS Barron's says company's role in distributing vaccine will increase customer base.

DAL CEO sees positive cashflow by the spring.

DIS Barron's sees possible upside in theme parks performance in 2021.

FLIR Will be acquired by TDY for $56 per share in cash and stock.

GOOGL CNBC reports that employees of company are looking to form a union.

HLF Carl Icahn sells half his stake in company and gives up board seats.

INO Announces partnership to commercialize vaccine in China.

JWN Positive Barron's article cites company's shift to online and decreased competition.

KO Barron's highlights as an attractive re-opening stock.

MGLN Will be acquired by CNC for $95 per share in cash.

NIO Announces 121% increase in y/y deliveries in December.

ROKU WSJ reports that company in talks to acquire Quibi content.

SYY Barron's sees stock benefitting from reopening of restaurants and hotels.

TDY Sees Q4 EPS and sales above consensus forecasts; will acquire FLIR.

TSLA Q4 deliveries came in just shy of 500K target.

NYSE delists CHU , CHA , and CHL due to Chinese government ties.

Bearish Bullish

Category One Week Two Weeks One Month

Sentiment 0.10 0.19 0.64

Technicals 0.06 0.14 0.77

Fundamental 0.15 0.34 0.57

Overall 0.10 0.24 0.60

Average (all days) 0.15 0.30 0.61

Expected S&P 500 Return (%)

Neutral

Index Changes

Ticker Date TOD EPS Revs.

SGH 1/5/20 PM 0.70 291

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

Estimate

15:45 Fed's Evans Discusses Fed Actions During Pandemic

15:45 Fed's Williams Discusses Monetary and Fiscal Policy

Citi TMT Conference

Goldman Health Care Conference

JPM 0.90 BRX 0.22

CMCSA 0.23

Conferences & Meetings

Dividends & Splits

ENPH Will replace TIF in the S&P 500 effective 1/7.

CPRI Will replace ENPH in the S&P 400 effective 1/7.

CELH Will replace CPRI in the S&P 600 effective 1/7.

BRKS Will replace WPX in the S&P 400 effective 1/7.

ELF Will replace BRKS in the S&P 600 effective 1/7.

i -0.7 %

h 1.1

h 1.2

h 2.6

Oil 48.22 i -$0.3

Gold 1935.3 h $40.2

$/Euro 0.813 i -0.01

$/Yen 102.94 i -0.3

Bitcoin 30,989 h 1742

10-Yr 0.93 h 0.02

Japan

China

Germany

UK

https://www.bespokepremium.com/

Commodity Current 1 Wk Ago

$/Euro OS OS

$/Yen OS OS

2-Year OB OB

10-Year N N

Gold N N

Silver OB OB

Copper N OB

Crude Oil OB OB

Heating Oil OB OB

Gasoline OB OB

Natural Gas N N

OS N OB

Ticker Price

HD 265.62 -1.05 0.19 48.0

Standard Deviations

Below 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive

Ticker Price

NRG 37.55 3.07 -0.53 44.2

Standard Deviations

Above 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive

-0.40

-0.35

-0.30

-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20

Bonds Outperforming Stocks

Stocks Outperforming Bonds

Ticker % Chg. Occ. Chg. Percent Up Chg. Percent Up

GCI 15.9 26 0.4 42.3 -1.7 46.2

WDC 11.8 3 6.5 66.7 10.9 100.0

CEIX 6.3 57 0.9 49.1 -2.6 47.4

CTB 6.0 30 0.6 56.7 1.0 60.0

GNW -8.3 46 2.4 63.0 2.7 60.9

BRKS -8.0 34 0.8 61.8 2.1 58.8

M -6.5 51 -0.9 49.0 -0.5 49.0

STMP -5.9 33 1.7 57.6 1.5 54.5

Average Return (%)

Next Day Next Week

Index/Sector Current 1 Wk Ago

S&P 500 OB OB

Cons Discret. OB N

Cons Staples OB N

Energy N N

Financials OB OB

Health Care OB N

Industrials N N

Materials OB N

Technology OB OB

Comm. Svcs OB N

Utilities N OS

OS N OB

S&P 500 50-Day Moving Average Spread S&P 500 Internals Yesterday’s Movers

Relative Strength of Stocks versus Bonds

S&P 500 Overbought and Oversold Stocks (Percentage) Trading Ranges: Sectors

Trading Ranges: Bonds/Commodities

S&P 500 Overbought Stocks Most Likely to Fall

S&P 500 Oversold Stocks Most Likely to Rise


Extreme Overbought

Overbought

Oversold

Extreme Oversold

2.6

40.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Green indicates percentage of oversold stocks, and red indicates percentage of overbought stocks.

OBOS

Indicator Change50-Day Moving Avg Spread h 4.8 % 3.7 %10-Day A/D Line h 395 -278# of Overbought Stocks h 201 180# of Oversold Stocks i 13 41

P/E Ratio Trailing h 29.90 29.45 Forward h 27.05 26.63

Dividend Yield i 1.59 % 1.60 %

Net Earnings Revisions 21.5 % 21.5 %

Credit Spreads (bps)High Yield 0 418 418Corporate Bonds 0 107 107

Current One Week Ago


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BBG US Dollar Index: Last Six Months

BBG US Dollar Index: Last 15 Trading Days

1100

1120

1140

1160

1180

1200

1220

1240

7/7 8/4 9/1 9/29 10/27 11/24 12/22

1100

1120

1140

1160

1180

1200

1220

1240

7/7 8/4 9/1 9/29 10/27 11/24 12/22

50-DMA: 1143

200-DMA: 1191

1116

1118

1120

1122

1124

1126

1128

1130

1132

1134

1136

12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24 12/29 12/31

1120

Gold Future: Last Six Months

Gold Front Month Future: Last 15 Trading Days

1550

1650

1750

1850

1950

2050

2150

7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22

1550

1650

1750

1850

1950

2050

2150

7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22

1820

1830

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24 12/29 12/31

200-DMA: 1836

50-DMA: 1876

1905

S&P 500: Last Six Months

S&P 500: Last 15 Trading Days

2900

3025

3150

3275

3400

3525

3650

3775

3900

7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22

2900

3025

3150

3275

3400

3525

3650

3775

3900

7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22

3620

3640

3660

3680

3700

3720

3740

3760

3780

12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24 12/29 12/31

200-DMA: 3235

50-DMA: 3585

3756

Russell 2000: Last Six Months

Russell 2000: Last 15 Trading Days

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22

200-DMA: 1512

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24 12/29 12/31

50-DMA: 1803

1975

Nasdaq Composite: Last Six Months

Nasdaq Composite: Last 15 Trading Days

9300

9800

10300

10800

11300

11800

12300

12800

13300

7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22

9300

9800

10300

10800

11300

11800

12300

12800

13300

7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22

50-DMA: 12079

200-DMA: 10518

12200

12300

12400

12500

12600

12700

12800

12900

13000

12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24 12/29 12/31

12888

Oil Future: Last Six Months

Oil Future: Last 15 Trading Days

7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22

200-DMA: 37

45.5

46.0

46.5

47.0

47.5

48.0

48.5

49.0

49.5

12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24 12/29 12/31

50-DMA: 43

48.42


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DJ Transports: Last Six Months

DJ Transports: Last 15 Trading Days

8300

8800

9300

9800

10300

10800

11300

11800

12300

12800

13300

7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22

8300

8800

9300

9800

10300

10800

11300

11800

12300

12800

13300

7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22

200-DMA: 10272

12250

12350

12450

12550

12650

12750

12850

12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24 12/29 12/31

50-DMA: 12201

12507

Long Bond Future: Last Six Months

Long Bond Future Intraday: Last 15 Trading Days

170

172

174

176

178

180

182

184

7/8 8/5 9/2 10/1 10/29 11/27 12/28

170

172

174

176

178

180

182

184

7/8 8/5 9/2 10/1 10/29 11/27 12/28

200-DMA: 177

171.5

172.0

172.5

173.0

173.5

174.0

174.5

12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24 12/29 12/31

50-DMA: 173

172.97

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For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

4

Morning Commentary Overview: The dollar is at new multi-year lows, commodities are green across the board, US stocks are

set to gap up over half a percent with small caps outperforming, and the US yield curve is bear-

steepening into 2021. Global Economic Scorecard

Georgia Votes: Tomorrow Georgians will return to the polls after no candidate from either the special

Senate election or regularly scheduled election to Senate was capable of getting 50% of the vote. After

polls underestimated Trump voters for a second cycle running, there’s an understandable skepticism

that pollsters are presenting accurate pictures of the electorate, and some handicapping of margins

reported in polling for the Senate elections tomorrow are justified. That said, a number of polls have

shown both Warnock (Democrat) and Ossoff (Democrat) leading their incumbent opponents Loeffler

(Republican) and Perdue (Republican). Early vote turnout by party has been more favorable for Demo-

crats than the November general was including higher participation by black voters, and the path to

victory for Republicans in both races requires robust election day turnout from the Republican firewall

in North Georgia. The race will be close, but betting markets have flipped in recent days to favoring

Democrats: Ossoff is priced at 54% by PredictIt bettors while Warnock is priced at 62%. It’s unclear

whether the President’s weekend call with the Georgia Secretary of State (leaked widely to media and

gathering lots of headlines) will have a major impact on election day turnout, but he also has a rally

scheduled for today in the state.

APAC Markets: To close the weekend in the US and start the week in China, there were reports that

billionaire Alibaba (BABA) chairman Jack Ma had gone missing after a tumultuous few months that

included the cancellation of BABA’s Ant Financial unit IPO and new regulations on that company after

Ma criticized the CCP. Ma hasn’t been seen publicly since the IPO was pulled, including missing taping

of an African television show he regularly appears on. BABA was down 2% in Hong Kong trading versus

1% gains for the CSI 300 onshore and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong. Other regional equities were mixed,

with Japan lower but >1% gains for Australia, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Singapore. The KOSPI has

now doubled (102%) versus closing lows on March 18th. Local FX also surged versus the dollar, with all

currencies higher and a 1.1% rally from IDR to lead the region, while iron ore prices surged2.1% to start

the year.

Europe Markets: European equities are on an absolute tear to start the new year with the STOXX 600

up 1.5% and >3.5% days for Resources and Travel & Leisure. Three other groups are up over 2.3%, and

all but six groups are up over 1.2%. An MGM Resorts (MGM) offer to buy Ladbrokes and PartyPoker

parent Entain (ADR GMVHY) has those shares up an index-best 30%, while miners Fresnillo (ADR

FNLPF), Glencore (ADR GLNCY), and Polymetal (ADR POYFF) are among the best-performers as well. At

the country level, the UK’s 2.6% gain is the best in the region, while Italy lags up 0.9%. Generally strong

PMI data (more on the next page) has not moved European rates much, and indeed EUR curves are

showing a flattening bias overall. The pattern of lower lows and lower highs in EUR interest rate swaps

and German bunds is clear and well-established since March. Credit markets are generally tighter in

spread but EUR cash credit is outperforming CDS this morning. EURUSD is starting the year up 0.7% to

what would be a new 52-week closing high.

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5

Markit Manufacturing PMIs: Markit reported the lion’s share of final global manufacturing PMIs for

December and the news was mostly good.

While there were certainly some misses versus expectations, countries like Japan, the Netherlands,

Switzerland, the UK, and Sweden reported very strong results. While not a Markit PMI, Sweden’s result

is notable because its 64.9 reading was the second-highest since the early 1990s, surpassed only by

May 2010. It’s no wonder that the SEK was the best-performing currency in the world last year. New

Orders were the strongest since 2006 for the Swedish index. Swiss data is similarly separate from Mar-

kit and showed very strong improvement with a reading of 58.

For the Eurozone more broadly, the factory powerhouse Germany reported a 34-month high for its

reading. Across the currency bloc, manufacturers reported that new export orders increased

“markedly”, backlogs of work rose, and delivery delays rose sharply. This is all good news in general as

it shows final demand is holding up well across the global economy.

In China, the pace of activity’s rise slowed, with PMI coming in at three month lows, but there were still

robust indicators of activity with strong increases in new orders including new export orders. It was a

similar story for Japan, which saw its Manufacturing PMI finally return to breakeven (50). Reported

output was flat after nearly two straight years of reported declines. New orders in Japan are still drop-

ping, but doing so at a much slower pace, with the auto sector cited as a key strong point. Taiwan’s

manufacturing PMI came in at the highest level since January of 2011 driven by robust export orders

that signal strong foreign demand.

Morning Commentary

Markit PMIs Show A Return To Improvement in December

20

30

40

50

60

70

Austria - Manufacturing - 53.5 vs 51.7 prior

Japan - Manufacturing - 50 vs 49 prior

Australia - Manufacturing - 55.7 vs 55.8 prior

Canada - Manufacturing - Pending

US - Manufacturing - 56.5 vs 56.7 prior

Malaysia - Manufacturing - 49.1 vs 48.4 prior

Indonesia - Manufacturing - 51.3 vs 50.6 prior

Philippines - Manufacturing - 49.2 vs 49.9 prior

Thailand - Manufacturing - 50.8 vs 50.4 prior

South Korea - Manufacturing - 52.9 vs 52.9 prior

Taiwan - Manufacturing - 59.4 vs 56.9 prior

Myanmar - Manufacturing - Pending

China - Manufacturing - 53 vs 54.9 prior

India - Manufacturing - 56.4 vs 56.3 prior

Russia - Manufacturing - 49.7 vs 46.3 prior

Poland - Manufacturing - 51.7 vs 50.8 prior

Turkey - Manufacturing - 50.8 vs 51.4 prior

Spain - Manufacturing - 51 vs 49.8 prior

Czech - Manufacturing - 57 vs 53.9 prior

Italy - Manufacturing - 52.8 vs 51.5 prior

France - Manufacturing - 51.1 vs 49.6 prior

Germany - Manufacturing - 58.3 vs 57.8 prior

Eurozone - Manufacturing - 55.2 vs 53.8 prior

Greece - Manufacturing - 46.9 vs 42.3 prior

Mexico - Manufacturing - Pending

Vietnam - Manufacturing - 51.7 vs 49.9 prior

Colombia - Manufacturing - Pending

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6

Coronavirus: Vaccine progress remains frustratingly slow. On a

cumulative basis since December 17th, new doses per day are

up above 240,000, which isn’t horrible but is far too slow given

more than 13mm allocated doses and just over 4mm total in-

jected. Hopefully the passing of the holidays will ramp up the

numbers; during the week of New Years before that holiday,

injections ran north of 300,000 per day, and progress is likely

to accelerate as localities scale up their distributions. In the

meantime, hospitalizations are at a record, and positivity has

exploded nationally; we also note a huge acceleration of cases

in the UK (chart page 9).

Morning Commentary

Note: population denominator excludes

states not reporting hospitalization data on a

given date.

US National COVID Tracking Statistics As-Of 1/3/2021

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

0

500

1000

1500

2000

25007 Day Average Tests Per Day ('000s)

7d Avg Positive Test Rate

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Deaths Per Day

7 Day Average

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

New Confirmed Cases ('000s)

7 Day Average

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Hospitalization RatePer mm Population

US Vaccination Pace

240,484

306,308

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Cumulative AvgPer Day

12/27-12/31







7

COVID By State: The table below includes a wide range of COVID-19 data points by state, as a refer-

ence. We will update it daily on this page.

Morning Commentary

State

AK 2 0 325 58 6,227 -1,451 5.2 2.9 -0.2 443.7 79.1 8,511.5 -1,983.9

AL 26 -17 3,758 447 8,047 -503 46.7 5.3 -3.5 766.4 91.2 1,641.2 -102.6

AR 35 0 2,366 477 9,740 -455 24.3 11.7 0.1 784.2 158.0 3,227.5 -150.9

AZ 91 25 8,864 3,044 48,392 5,834 18.3 12.4 3.5 1,217.8 418.2 6,648.4 801.5

CA 331 99 38,351 15 283,727 -53,634 13.5 8.4 2.5 970.6 0.4 7,180.7 -1,357.4

CO 46 10 2,319 15 27,989 -9,441 8.3 8.0 1.8 402.7 2.6 4,860.3 -1,639.4

CT 44 14 2,482 1,059 36,897 11,264 6.7 12.3 3.9 696.3 297.2 10,349.1 3,159.5

DC 4 -1 223 -6 5,022 -2,628 4.4 5.3 -1.0 316.2 -7.9 7,115.6 -3,723.5

DE 5 0 632 -2 7,108 264 8.9 4.8 -0.3 649.5 -2.1 7,299.5 271.6

FL 114 20 13,002 3,184 96,658 -8,001 13.5 5.3 1.0 605.4 148.2 4,500.4 -372.5

GA 39 -4 6,196 1,321 32,673 -4,379 19.0 3.7 -0.4 583.5 124.5 3,077.3 -412.4

GU 0 0 8 -2 217 -60 3.8 1.7 0.0 49.1 -9.5 1,306.9 -362.1

HI 1 0 146 31 3,951 -939 3.7 0.4 0.1 102.9 21.9 2,790.2 -663.4

IA 29 6 938 159 2,104 -178 44.6 9.1 2.0 297.4 50.4 666.9 -56.4

ID 13 2 916 -44 1,606 -87 57.0 7.5 1.2 512.6 -24.5 898.6 -48.8

IL 141 8 5,987 625 70,929 -7,797 8.4 11.1 0.6 472.5 49.3 5,597.4 -615.3

IN 90 28 4,604 392 36,663 -2,698 12.6 13.4 4.1 683.9 58.2 5,445.9 -400.8

KS 53 29 2,579 1,256 7,186 2,701 35.9 18.2 10.1 885.4 431.2 2,466.6 927.0

KY 24 1 2,823 717 13,878 776 20.3 5.4 0.3 631.9 160.6 3,106.4 173.6

LA 35 0 3,048 1,108 21,973 2,935 13.9 7.6 -0.1 655.7 238.4 4,726.7 631.4

MA 71 15 4,989 817 61,015 -8,278 8.2 10.3 2.2 718.0 117.6 8,779.7 -1,191.2

MD 40 3 2,589 247 37,338 -3,890 6.9 6.7 0.4 428.2 40.9 6,175.9 -643.4

ME 5 1 530 111 6,277 190 8.4 3.8 0.5 394.5 82.7 4,670.0 141.2

MI 88 0 3,114 218 20,472 -19,476 15.2 8.8 0.0 311.8 21.8 2,049.9 -1,950.1

MN 40 -2 1,640 -37 29,492 -6,880 5.6 7.2 -0.4 290.9 -6.6 5,229.4 -1,219.9

MO 36 -18 2,810 394 16,370 343 17.2 5.8 -2.9 457.8 64.2 2,667.3 55.9

MP 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -18.1 0.0 -18.1

MS 38 10 2,239 517 2,239 -6,340 100.0 12.7 3.3 752.3 173.7 752.3 -2,130.3

MT 7 -2 372 -1 2,240 -1,307 16.6 6.4 -1.5 347.7 -1.2 2,095.5 -1,223.2

NC 52 5 6,871 1,491 50,463 -2,410 13.6 4.9 0.5 655.1 142.1 4,811.4 -229.8

ND 7 2 225 21 8,812 4,968 2.6 8.6 2.2 295.3 27.7 11,563.0 6,519.2

NE 16 2 989 143 9,803 -16 10.1 8.1 1.2 511.4 74.1 5,067.6 -8.2

NH 10 3 806 196 5,892 -758 13.7 7.6 2.1 592.7 144.4 4,333.6 -557.8

NJ 83 20 4,403 313 47,887 -3,772 9.2 9.3 2.3 495.7 35.3 5,391.4 -424.6

NM 29 4 1,204 64 10,490 -3,712 11.5 14.0 2.0 574.1 30.7 5,002.7 -1,770.4

NV 33 9 2,016 78 11,858 -2,248 17.0 10.7 2.8 654.4 25.3 3,849.7 -730.0

NY 138 7 13,573 2,986 174,373 -12,818 7.8 7.1 0.4 697.7 153.5 8,963.5 -658.9

OH 81 15 7,279 462 41,575 -4,014 17.5 6.9 1.3 622.8 39.6 3,556.7 -343.4

OK 25 3 3,562 947 14,940 -4,235 23.8 6.4 0.7 900.1 239.4 3,775.6 -1,070.3

OR 10 -2 1,146 175 16,455 -927 7.0 2.5 -0.4 271.6 41.5 3,901.5 -219.8

PA 184 28 7,407 -354 16,814 -3,219 44.1 14.3 2.2 578.5 -27.6 1,313.4 -251.5

RI 5 -6 430 -303 4,930 -7,994 8.7 5.1 -5.7 405.6 -286.0 4,653.6 -7,545.8

SC 45 13 3,641 388 22,649 -6,761 16.1 8.7 2.6 707.3 75.4 4,399.0 -1,313.2

SD 10 -3 449 68 1,024 -47 43.8 10.8 -2.9 507.4 77.4 1,157.8 -53.3

TN 73 10 6,317 -25 24,926 -7,207 25.3 10.7 1.5 924.4 -3.7 3,647.9 -1,054.8

TX 206 46 17,821 5,402 85,339 -25,456 20.9 7.1 1.6 614.6 186.3 2,943.1 -877.9

UT 12 4 2,657 670 11,279 299 23.6 3.9 1.2 828.8 208.9 3,518.1 93.3

VA 39 9 4,313 494 30,785 496 14.0 4.5 1.1 505.3 57.9 3,606.7 58.1

VI 0 0 9 1 175 -42 5.1 0.0 0.0 84.4 5.4 1,665.3 -401.7

VT 2 0 109 25 4,146 -217 2.6 3.0 -0.7 174.9 40.8 6,644.1 -348.2

WA 40 28 1,433 -584 18,006 -11,594 8.0 5.2 3.7 188.2 -76.7 2,364.6 -1,522.6

WI 32 -11 2,524 258 22,634 -4,224 11.1 5.4 -1.8 433.4 44.4 3,887.4 -725.5

WV 17 -1 1,478 283 13,356 3,644 11.1 9.7 -0.3 824.9 157.8 7,452.5 2,033.6

WY 9 6 239 20 3,348 1,262 7.1 16.0 10.6 413.4 33.8 5,784.1 2,180.8

US 2,607 422 208,750 29,343 1,548,388 -205,122 13.5 7.9 1.3 629.0 88.4 4,665.6 -618.1

Week

Change

COVID-19 Outbreak Statistics By State: Level, Growth, and Per Capita (As-Of 1/3/2021)Raw Count (7 Day Average) 7 Day +ve

Test Rate

(%)

Per 1mm Population

Deaths

Day/Day

Week

Change

Cases

Day/Day

Week

Change

Tests

Day/Day

Week

Change

Deaths

Day/Day

Week

Change

Cases

Day/Day

Week

Change

Tests

Day/Day







8

Morning Commentary

% of % of

State Trend Peak Cases State Trend Peak Cases

NY Rising 100.0 13573 OR Rising 74.7 2291

FL Rising 100.0 13002 NV Rising 73.0 4031

AZ Rising 100.0 8864 PA Falling 70.0 14813

NC Rising 100.0 6871 IN Rising 66.7 9209

GA Rising 100.0 6196 TN Falling 65.6 12633

VA Rising 100.0 4313 MO Rising 59.5 5619

SC Rising 100.0 3641 OH Rising 58.1 14559

OK Rising 100.0 3562 HI Rising 57.2 291

LA Rising 100.0 3048 ID Falling 55.4 1832

MS Rising 100.0 2239 IL Rising 48.3 11975

WV Rising 100.0 1478 WA Falling 47.5 2867

ME Rising 100.0 530 AK Rising 46.1 649

MA Rising 99.3 4989 CO Rising 45.8 4638

TX Rising 98.5 17821 NM Rising 45.1 2407

AR Rising 94.8 2366 NE Rising 41.4 1979

VT Rising 93.3 109 MI Rising 37.3 6227

KS Rising 93.2 2579 WI Rising 35.8 5047

NH Rising 91.2 806 RI Falling 32.4 859

AL Rising 90.9 3758 SD Rising 30.8 898

CT Rising 89.1 2482 MT Falling 28.7 743

MD Rising 88.6 2589 VI Rising 27.2 18

CA Rising 87.3 38351 WY Rising 26.9 479

NJ Rising 86.6 4403 IA Rising 24.6 1877

KY Rising 80.8 2823 MN Falling 23.3 3281

DC Falling 77.6 223 ND Rising 15.5 450

DE Falling 76.6 632 GU Falling 6.4 16

UT Rising 75.0 2657 MP Falling 0.0 0

State State

MS Rising 79.9 100.0 IN Rising 1.9 12.6

ID Rising 0.4 57.0 NM Rising 3.5 11.5

AL Rising 8.0 46.7 WI Rising 2.7 11.1

IA Rising 10.4 44.6 WV Falling -1.2 11.1

PA Rising 5.3 44.1 NE Rising 1.5 10.1

SD Rising 8.3 43.8 NJ Rising 1.3 9.2

KS Rising 6.4 35.9 DE Falling -0.4 8.9

TN Rising 5.6 25.3 RI Rising 3.0 8.7

AR Rising 5.8 24.3 ME Rising 1.6 8.4

OK Rising 10.2 23.8 IL Rising 1.6 8.4

UT Rising 5.5 23.6 CO Rising 2.1 8.3

TX Rising 9.7 20.9 MA Rising 2.2 8.2

KY Rising 4.3 20.3 WA Rising 1.1 8.0

GA Rising 5.8 19.0 NY Rising 2.1 7.8

AZ Rising 4.6 18.3 WY Falling -3.4 7.1

OH Rising 2.6 17.5 OR Rising 1.4 7.0

MO Rising 2.1 17.2 MD Rising 1.3 6.9

NV Rising 3.3 17.0 CT Rising 1.2 6.7

MT Rising 6.1 16.6 MN Rising 1.0 5.6

SC Rising 5.0 16.1 AK Rising 1.7 5.2

MI Rising 8.0 15.2 VI Rising 1.2 5.1

VA Rising 1.4 14.0 DC Rising 1.5 4.4

LA Rising 3.7 13.9 GU Rising 0.2 3.8

NH Rising 4.5 13.7 HI Rising 1.3 3.7

NC Rising 3.4 13.6 VT Rising 0.7 2.6

CA Rising 2.2 13.5 ND Falling -2.8 2.6

FL Rising 4.1 13.5 MP Falling -100.0 0.0

State State

AZ Rising 8.8 626 VA Rising 8.5 317

NV Falling -0.7 607 IL Falling -6.5 301

AL Rising 11.6 588 CT Falling -12.0 296

CA Rising 7.2 544 SD Falling -4.4 296

GA Rising 17.9 500 KS Falling -18.6 283

TN Rising 11.5 493 MD Rising 1.0 283

MS Rising 5.7 489 MI Falling -11.3 276

OK Rising 10.5 483 NE Falling 0.0 260

WV Rising 15.2 449 NH Rising 20.4 239

MO Rising 0.2 440 ID Falling -10.4 197

TX Rising 15.4 433 IA Rising 4.3 183

DE Rising 4.5 432 MT Falling -4.0 180

PA Falling -6.4 432 WI Falling -6.5 175

NY Rising 10.9 409 CO Falling -16.4 172

IN Falling -3.5 403 WY Falling -32.2 171

AR Rising 11.3 403 UT Rising 6.0 171

SC Rising 16.4 402 MN Falling -14.6 159

RI Falling -3.6 402 WA Falling -5.2 149

NJ Rising 1.5 396 ME Falling -1.6 134

LA Rising 19.8 394 ND Falling -7.5 129

KY Rising 11.5 375 OR Falling -1.1 124

OH Falling -3.1 362 AK Rising 22.5 119

DC Rising 5.6 347 GU Falling -38.9 66

NM Falling -5.5 341 HI Rising 34.4 61

NC Rising 14.5 341 VT Falling -8.8 50

MA Rising 6.3 330 VI Falling n/a 0

FL Rising 17.9 324 MP Falling n/a 0

Positive Test Rate: Distribution & Trajectory Trend

WoW

Change

Positive

Rate

New Cases Per Day: Distribution & Trajectory New Cases Per Day: Distribution & Trajectory

6 Month COVID-19 Case Count By State: 7 Day Moving Average As-Of 1/3/21

6 Month COVID-19 Positive Test Rate By State/Territory: 7 Day Moving Average As-Of 1/3/21

Positive Test Rate: Distribution & TrajectoryTrend

WoW

Change

Positive

Rate

6 Month COVID-19 Per Capita Hospitalization By State/Territory: 7 Day Moving Average As-Of 1/3/21

Trend

WoW %

Chg

Hospital

Rate Trend

WoW %

Chg

Hospital

RateHospitalization Rate: Distribution & Trajectory Hospitalization Rate: Distribution & Trajectory







9

Morning Commentary Global New Cases Per Day Per mm Population (7d Avg)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

World

Americas Ex US

EU

East Asia

Africa

US

Rest of World

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

World

East Asia

Africa

0

50

100

150

200

250

Ethiopia

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

South Africa

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Canada

Brazil

Chile

Mexico

US

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

FranceGermanyItalySpainUnited KingdomSweden

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

China

Japan

South Korea

Singapore







10

US Calendar: Markit releases US PMI today 24 1/4 hours ahead of ISM, while the Census announces

construction spending data for November. Fed speakers are also returning to their bits, with Evans

(Chicago), Bostic (Atlanta), and Mester (Cleveland) due to speak at the American Economics Associa-

tion annual conference (remote). To stay on top of all the latest reports, make sure to check out our

Interactive Earnings Calendar. You can also follow US and Global data with our Economic Scorecard.

Morning Commentary

Asset Level Change 5d Chg 3m Chart Asset Level Change 5d Chg 3m Chart

S&P 500 3767.00 48.7 100.5 Gold 1935.10 211.1 308.4

Russell 1989.50 74.4 -35.6 Silver 27.36 358.9 355.8

VIX Fut 23.45 -95.0 -63.6 WTI 48.20 -66.0 106.9

TSX 1036.80 76.8 -56.6 Copper 359.45 214.5 61.6

2 Year 12.11 0.0 0.2 Nikkei 27258.38 -67.7 150.6

5 Year 36.71 0.6 1.3 CSI 300 5267.72 108.3 401.4

10 Year 93.32 2.0 1.0 ASX 200 6684.25 147.5 29.2

30 Year 166.76 2.3 0.9 STOXX 600 405.01 149.9 161.3

2s10s 81.01 2.0 1.2 BBG USD 1115.65 -41.5 -106.9

5s30s 129.90 1.6 -0.3 EURUSD 1.2301 70.4 69.6

5 Yr BE 197.57 0.9 4.8 USDJPY 102.96 -23.3 -81.9

10 Yr BE 199.51 0.8 2.6 EM FX 58.41 120.1 108.0

Mar '21 99.84 0.5 0.01 CDX IG 49.87 -0.1 -2.3

Jun '21 99.84 0.0 0.01 iTraxx IG 46.49 -2.7 -2.1

Sep '21 99.84 0.5 0.02 CDX HY 290.70 -0.8 -4.8

Dec '21 99.80 0.5 0.02 iTraxx HY 238.58 -1.0 -5.7

Euro

do

llar

s

Cre

dit

Bespoke Major Asset Class Dashboard

Equ

ity

Futs

Co

mm

od

ity

Trsy

Yie

lds

Int'

l Eq

uit

y

Cu

rve

s/B

E

FX

(bps)(bps)

https://www.bespokepremium.comhttps://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive-earnings-calendar/https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/economic-monitors/eco-global

Commentary 010421Bespoke Morning Lineup-010421 0e59n

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