Evacuation Transportation Modeling and Analysis

Florida APASeptember 8, 2011

Bob Hamm, PEWilbur Smith Associates

• Satisfy State RequirementsStandardized definitions for clearance times

• Statewide ConsistencyAll RPC regions use same transportation methodology

• Single or Multi-Region AnalysisEach RPC has ability to conduct own analysis

• Model InterfaceAllows users ability to easily create and run evacuation scenarios

Transportation Objectives

• Cube Voyager PlatformConsistent with FDOT and all MPOs in Florida

• Cube Avenue Dynamic Traffic Assignment

• Model Structure includes:Behavioral Data – provided by SRESP behavioral studiesDemographic Data – provided by RPCsEvacuation Network – provided by RPCsEvacuation Zones – provided by counties based on SLOSH data

Model Structure

• Statewide Behavioral Studies Studies complete in all RPC regions

• Provides Important Data for Modeling:

Who is evacuating?Where are they going?When are they leaving?

Behavioral Data

Small Area Data

• Regional Demographic Studies RPC regions developing updated demographics

• Provides Important Data for Modeling:

Where/how many people?Where/how many households?Where/how many vehicles?Where/how many mobile homes?Where/how many hotel/motels?Where/how many shelters/capacity?

• FDOT Statewide Model NetworkUsed as a starting point – consistent statewide on consistent GIS projection

• Updated with RPC Evacuation Route input

RPCs developing evacuation route data

• Provides Important Data for Modeling:

Roadway locations and number of lanesPreferred evacuation routesTraffic control strategies

Evacuation Network

• Vulnerability AnalysisEvacuation zones will be developed by counties based on results of SLOSH modeling and easily recognized geographic features (e.g. major roads)

• Provides Important Data for Modeling:

Defines areas that will evacuate (both primary and shadow areas)

Evacuation Zones

Model Process

• Detailed Methodology is Documented in Volume 8 – Chapter II

Model Process

Split Trips into Destination

Purposes

Distribute Trips ThroughoutStudy Area

DetermineTime

Segment Trips

EstimateBackground

Traffic

Specify Evacuation

Conditions and Initialize Model

Post Process Model Outputs

DetermineNumber of

Evacuation Trips

Load Tripsonto Highway

Network

Traffic Evacuation Zones

• Small Area Data

• Behavioral Data

Roadway Network

• Capacity/Speed

• Number of Lanes

Citrus

Hernando

SumterLake

Orange

Pasco

Polk

Osceola

Pinellas

Hillsborough

ManateeHardee

Sarasota DeSoto

Charlotte

Geographic Extents of

TBRPC Model

Demonstration