www.covidstates.org

THE COVID STATES PROJECT:

A 50 -STATE COVID - 19 SURVEY

REPORT # 66: UPDATE ON EXECUTIVE APPROVAL

USA, October 2021

Alauna C. Safarpour, Harvard UniversityAlexi Quintana, Northeastern UniversityMatthew A. Baum, Harvard UniversityDavid Lazer, Northeastern UniversityKatherine Ognyanova, Rutgers UniversityAta Uslu, Northeastern UniversityJon Green, Northeastern UniversityKristin Lunz Trujillo, Northeastern University

Anjuli Shere, Harvard UniversityJames Druckman, Northwestern University

Roy H. Perlis, Harvard Medical School

Mauricio Santillana , Harvard Medical School

Jennifer Lin, Northwestern University

Hong Qu, Northeastern UniversityCaroline Pippert, Northwestern University

Northeastern UniversityKennedy School

SHORENSTEINCENTERon Media, Politicsand PublicPolicy

HARVARDMEDICALSCHOOL

S RUTGERSNorthwestern

UniversityNetworkScience Institutenetsi THE STATE UNIVERSITY

OF NEW JERSEY

Reportof October 8, 2021, v.1

The COVID States Project

From : The COVID- 19 Consortiumfor Understandingthe Public'sPolicyPreferencesAcross States

A joint project of:

Northeastern University, Harvard University, Rutgers University, and Northwestern University

Authors: Alauna C. Safarpour ( Harvard University); Alexi Quintana (Northeastern University);

MatthewA. Baum (Harvard University) ; David Lazer (NortheasternUniversity)Katherine Ognyanova(Rutgers University); Ata Uslu (NortheasternUniversity);

Jon Green (NortheasternUniversity); Kristin LunzTrujillo (NortheasternUniversity);Anjuli Shere (Harvard University) James Druckman (NorthwesternUniversity);Roy H. Perlis (Harvard Medical School ; Mauricio Santillana (Harvard Medical School) ;

Jennifer Lin (NorthwesternUniversity); HongQu (NortheasternUniversity) ,and CarolinePippert (NorthwesternUniversity)

This report is based on work supported by the National Science Foundation under grants SES2029292 and SES -2029297 . Any opinions , findings , and conclusions or recommendationsexpressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the NationalScience Foundation .

This research was partly supported by a grant from the Knight Foundation.

We also received generous support from the RussellSage Foundation.

The project was also supported by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.

Data collectionwas supported in part byAmazon.

Our work was made possible through the continued financial and logistic support provided by

Northeastern University, Harvard University, Rutgers University, and Northwestern University.

NortheasternUniversityNetwork ScienceInstitute

HARVARDKennedy School

SHORENSTEIN CENTERon Media, Politics and Public Policy

HARVARDMEDICAL SCHOOL

RUTGERS NorthwesternUniversitynetsi THE STATE UNIVERSITY

OF NEW JERSEY

The COVID - 19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States 2

COVER MEMO

Summary Memo October 8, 2021

The COVID States Project

From : The COVID - 19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States

Partners NortheasternUniversity, HarvardUniversity/HarvardMedicalSchool,

Rutgers University, and Northwestern University

Authors Alauna C. Safarpour (Harvard University); Alexi Quintana (Northeastern University);

MatthewA. Baum (Harvard University) ; David Lazer (NortheasternUniversity ;Katherine Ognyanova (Rutgers University); Ata Uslu (NortheasternUniversity);

Jon Green (NortheasternUniversity); Kristin LunzTrujillo (NortheasternUniversity);

Anjuli Shere (Harvard University) ; James Druckman (NorthwesternUniversity);Roy H. Perlis (Harvard Medical School ; Mauricio Santillana (Harvard Medical School ;

Jennifer Lin (NorthwesternUniversity); HongQu (NortheasternUniversity) ,and CarolinePippert (NorthwesternUniversity)

Note on methods:

Over fourteen survey waves, we polled 216,502 individuals across all 50 states plus the District ofColumbia on their approval of the President and their state's governor. The data was collectedbetween April17, 2020 and September 27, 2021 by PureSpectrum via an online, nonprobabilitysample, with state- level representative quotas for race/ ethnicity, age, and gender. In addition tobalancing on these dimensions, we reweighted our data using demographic characteristics tomatch the U.S. population with respect to race/ ethnicity, age, gender, education, and living inurban, suburban, or rural areas. The survey waves used in this report include: Late April 2020(4 /17 /20-4 /26 /20), Early May 2020 (5/ 2/ 20-5/ 15/ 20), Late May 2020 (5/ 16/20-5/ 31/ 20) , Late June2020 (6/ 12/ 20-6/28/ 20) Late July 2020 (7/ 10/ 20-7/ 26/ 20) August 2020 (8/ 7/ 20-8/ 26/ 20)September 2020 (9 / 4 / 20-9 / 27 / 20), October 2020 (10/ 2/ 20-11/ 04/ 20), November 2020 (11/03/2012/01/20), December-January (12/ 16/ 20-01/ 11/21) February 2021 (02/ 05/ 21-03/01/ 21 April2021 (04/ 01/ 21-05/ 03/ 21) June 2021 (06/ 09/ 21-07/06/ 21) and September 2021 (08 /26 /2109/27/21). The latest wave polled 21,079 individuals between August 26 and September 27, 2021.

Contact information:

For additional information and press requests contact :

David Lazer at d.lazer@neu.edu

KatherineOgnyanovaat katya.ognyanova@rutgers.eduRoy H. Perlis at rperlis@mgh.harvard.eduMatthewA. Baum at matthew baum@hks.harvard.edu

James Druckmanat druckman@northwestern.eduMauricioSantillana at msantill@fas.harvard.edu

Or visit us at www.covidstates.org.

The COVID - 19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States 3

September 2021 update on executive approval

The COVID States Project survey regularly asks people in all 50 states about their approval

of their governors and the President. Since our last report on executive approval, whichexamined trends through March 2021, the pandemic has notably evolved, with huge

surges of cases and deaths associated with the Delta variant throughout the summer andearly fall. Most states reacted to the dip in coronavirus infections and increase in

vaccinations in late spring and early summer by lifting indoor mask mandates, only to

struggle to adapt as cases surged again in the late summer and early fall 2021. Some ofthese states were responding to CDC guidance which announced in May that fully

vaccinated people no longer needed to wear masks indoors or outdoors, only to reversethat guidance a few months later and recommend masks indoors for Americans living in

areas of high transmission regardless of vaccination status. Other states rebuffed theguidance of public health agencies by, for instance, banning mask mandates in schools,

businesses, and other public places. These policy decisions received wide criticismparticularly as COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths surged in those states withthe loosest pandemic restrictions.

September 2021 has also seen important political developments with respect to national

policy around COVID-19. On September 9 President Biden issued an executive order

requiring all federal employees and government contractors to be vaccinated. ThePresident also announced that the U.S. Department of Labor would require all businesses

with more than 100 employees to require vaccination or weekly testing and provide

time off for employees to get vaccinated. On September 22, the FDA authorized boostershots for those vaccinated with the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine for certain populations,

including the elderly and those at higher risk of catching the disease due to theirprofessions.

In this report, we examine the approval of governors and the President for their handling

of the pandemic -- and for the president's overall approval over time across the U.S. to

assess how the public reacted to the policy decisions and developments surrounding the

pandemic as well as state and federal governmental responses.

e.g. Valerie Strauss . 2021. Florida Gov. DeSantis faces growing revolt fromschool districts imposing mask mandates. The Washington Post. August 19.https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2021/08/19/florida-mask-mandatedesantis -revolt/

The COVID - 19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States 4

KEY FINDINGS

Despite a drop in President Biden'sapproval rating on the pandemic since

June (overall and among key groups), Bidenmaintainsa higher coronavirus

approval rating than did Trump at this point last year ( % vs. 34%).

President Biden's approval rating on his handling of the coronavirus

pandemic (49 % ) and the average governor's approval rating on their

handling of the pandemic (45%) are similar. This is in contrast to President's

Trump's approval rating on coronavirus at this point last year, which was

significantly lower than respondents' approval of their governor's handlingof the crisis (34 % vs. 48%) .

Governors of states with prohibitions on vaccine mandates garner the

lowest approval ratings . This relationship holds even after accounting for

partisanship , race, gender, vaccination status, the governor's party, and the

state's average per capita COVID -19 cases .

Governors of states with higher average COVID -19 cases per capita receive

lower approval ratings than governors of states where cases are lower.

The COVID - 19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States 5

Maine

70 Approval of governors ' and the incumbent President's management of the COVID -19 outbreakEvolution through fourteen survey waves April 17 , 2020- September 27 , 2021 30

90VermontSeptembergovernorapprovalbelowSeptembernationalaverage

: SeptembergovernorapprovalaboveSeptembernationalaverage

Hampshire80

: Governorapproval: approve+ stronglyapprove: Presidentapproval: approve + stronglyapprove

: 7 - day rolling average of daily cases per 100,000

Blue : Democratic governor Red Republican governor

50

: State with vaccine mandates Statewithoutvaccinemandates

: Statewherevaccinemandatesareprohibited

Washington 90Montana 90 Minnesota 90New York Island90NorthDakota80

70

90MassachusettsMichigan8080 80

30

20302010

30

20

130

2010

2010 10

200regon 90Nevada Wyoming Dakota 900hio 20 Pennsylvania Jersey 90Connecticut

70

9080

16

30

80

3012020

90California180

90Utah 90 Colorado 90Nebraska 90Missouri Virginia 90Maryland 90 Delaware

The

COVID-19

Consortiumfor

Understandingthe

Public'sPolicy

PreferencesAcrossStates

80

7060

30

40

20

10

2010

Arizona New Mexico 90Kansas Tennessee Carolina8070

20

Carolina

60

303020 20

900klahoma Louisiana 20 Mississippi 20Alabama 20GeorgiaNational

%ofrespondentsor

cases/100,000

20Florida90Texas807060

30 30

20

10

Source: the COVID - 19 Consortium for Understanding The Public'sPolicy Preferences Across States ( A joint project of:Northeastern University, Harvard University, Rutgers University

andNorthwestern University ) www.covidstates.orgAvg. daily cases from The New York Times

Vaccine mandates data from the Kaiser Family Foundation Feb-21

Oct-20

Dec-20

Jun20 20

Aug-21

Wavepositionfollowsmiddledateof wave

9 Figure 1. Downloadhigh-resolution image

1. Presidential Approval

Changes in executive approval during this time have tracked closely with developments in

the COVID-19 pandemic, with approval of the President and state governors decliningsince summer as coronavirus cases surged in the late summer and early fall of 2021. See

Figure 1 for overall approval trends for the president and governors, and Figure 6 fortrends in governor approval by party identification.

According to the most recent survey conducted by the COVID States Project, 45% approve

or strongly approve of the job Biden is doing as President One third (33% ) of

Independents approve of the President, compared to eight in ten (80%) Democrats and

about one in ten Republicans (11% ).

When it comes to the President's handling of the coronavirus pandemic roughly half of

respondents (49%) approve while about three in ten (31 ) disapprove and another one in

five (20%) neither approve nor disapprove. Since our last survey , the President's approval

rating regarding handling COVID-19 has dropped eight points, from 57% in June .

The latest data from the COVID States Project shows that the decline in President Biden's

approval spans groups. In June, 46% of Independents approved of Biden's handling of the

coronavirus pandemic compared to the 38% of Independents who approved of the

President's handling of the pandemic in September. Approval among Democrats and

Republicans has also declined since the June wave (a five percentage point decline amongDemocrats and a seven point decline among Republicans) . Possibly due to the President's

more aggressive stance of mandating vaccinations, approval of Biden's handling of thepandemic among the unvaccinated declined 11 points between June and September.2Across racial and ethnic groups, Biden's approval declined between seven and eight

percentage points.

The decline in approval among the unvaccinated cannot be explained by

changes in the demographic composition of the unvaccinated between Juneand September. See Appendix Figure 1 for evidence that the demographic

groups comprising the unvaccinated have changed little between waves.

The COVID - 19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States 7

President Biden's Pandemic Approval Declines Across Key

Groups

Percent of respondents who approve or strongly approve of the President's handling of thecoronavirus pandemic :

June 2021 Wave September2021 Wave

Party Identification

87%Democrat

82%

46%

Independent38%

23%

Republican16%

Race/ Ethnicity

52%White

45%

73%Black

66%

60%

Hispanic52%

66%Asian

59%

Gender

54%Women

48%

60%Men

52%

VaccinationStatus

69%Vaccinated

60%

36%Unvaccinated

25%

Note: Junewaveconducted06 / 09 / 21-07/ 06/ 21. Septemberwave conducted08 / 26 / / 27 /21.

Source: The COVID- 19ConsortiumforUnderstandingthe Public'sPolicyPreferencesAcrossStates(A jointprojectofNortheasternUniversity, HarvardUniversity, RutgersUniversity, and NorthwesternUniversity) www.covidstates.org•CreatedwithDatawrapper

Figure 2.

The COVID - 19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States 8

Despite these notable declines Biden's approval for handling the coronavirus in

September 2021 remains 15 percentage points higher than Trump's 34 approval at thispoint last year (September 2020) . Similarly, Biden's overall approval tops Trump's 37%

approval in September of his first term, although it is lower than Obama's first term

September approval of 52%

Across states, Biden's approval has declined by a similar share in states run by Republican

and Democratic governors: In Republican controlled states, 45% of respondents approved

of the President's handling of the pandemic in September, an eight point decline from the53% who approved in June . In Democrat-controlled states, Biden's declined

seven points, from 60% in June to 53% in September.

Approval of the President also varies widely by respondent race. Approval of the

President's handling of the pandemic is highest (66 %) among Black respondents , and

lowest among Whites , only 45 % of whom approve of the President's performance on thepandemic

2. Governor Approval

On average, 45 of respondents approved of their state governor's handling of the

pandemic, a seven point drop from the 52% approval that governors enjoyed in June andthe lowest approval of governors since the start of the pandemic. States with particularly

notable approval declines are Virginia , Oklahoma, Nevada, Idaho, Alaska, Mississippi, Ohio,Arkansas, and Wisconsin - all of whose governors experienced double digit declines in

approval since June . There were increases in approval in just four states, and in none ofthose were the increases significant.

Slightly fewer respondents approve of their governor's handling of the pandemic than

approve of the President's performance on the issue. This is in stark contrast to 2020, whenthen-President Trump consistently garnered lower approval than governors with respectto the pandemic.

3 Approval figures from Trump and Obama's first term from Gallup pollingwhich utilized slightly different question wording . See Megan Brenan . 2021." Biden's Approval Rating Hits New Low of 43 %; Harris ' Is % ." September22. Gallup . https://news.gallup.com/poll/354872/biden-approval-rating-hitsnew - low - harris.aspx

The COVID - 19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States 9

In the states hardest hit by the recent spike in cases associated with the Delta variant (thatis, states above the median numberof average per capita cases4) four in ten (40%) approve

of their state's governor's pandemic performance. Approval in states with higher cases is

11 percentage points lower than in states with lower average case counts (below themedian). This may be partly due to variations in how state governments have respondedto the pandemic, both generally and regarding the spike in cases associated with the Delta

variant. For example, state policies on vaccine mandates vary widely In the 20 stateswhere vaccines are required for at least some workers as of September 28, 2021, a slim

majority (52%) of respondents approve of their governor's handling of the pandemic.

Approval is lower in the 19 states without such mandates (42% approve ) and is lower still

in the 11 states where vaccine mandates are prohibited (36%). Governors ofstates without

vaccine mandates or where vaccine mandates are prohibited receive significantly lower

approval for their handling of the pandemic even after accounting for alternative factors

known to predict approval, including party, gender, race, vaccination status, governor's

party, and average daily cases in the state (see Appendix Table 3 for details).

Approval of Governor's Handlingof CoronavirusPandemicbyStateVaccine Mandates

Percentof respondentswho approve or strongly approve of their state governor's handling of thecoronavirus pandemic:

StatesWith Vaccine Mandates 52%

StatesWith No Vaccine Mandates 42%

States With Mandates Prohibited 36%

Basedon September2021 data. Surveyconducted08 / 26 / 2021-09/27 / 2021. Dataon vaccine mandatesfrom theKaiserFamilyFoundation.

Source: The COVID-19 ConsortiumforUnderstandingthe Public's PolicyPreferencesAcrossStates (A jointprojectofNortheasternUniversity, HarvardUniversity, Rutgers University, and NorthwesternUniversity) www.covidstates.orgCreatedwith Datawrapper

Figure 3 .

4

Categorized as states above the median average cases per capita betweenJuly 28 and August 26, 2021. Case data from the New York Times.

5 Data on vaccine mandates from: Kaiser Family Foundation. "State COVID- 19

Data and Policy Actions. September 28 , 2021. https://www.kff.org/reportsection / state - covid -19- data -and -policy -actions -policy -actions / # vaccines

The COVID - 19Consortiumfor Understandingthe Public'sPolicyPreferencesAcross States 10

Among individuals who say they are unvaccinated, roughly three in ten approve of their

governor's handling of the pandemic across the states. However, approval among the

vaccinated varies widely by state policy concerning vaccine mandates. In states with

vaccine mandates, six in ten (60%) vaccinated individuals approve of their governor's

handling of the pandemic, compared to 48% of those in states without such requirements

and 37% in states where vaccine mandates are prohibited.

Governor Approval Varies By State Vaccine Mandates andIndividual Vaccination Status

Percentof respondentswho approve or strongly approve of their state governor's handling of thecoronavirus pandemic:

StatesWith VaccineMandates

Vaccinated 60%

Unvaccinated 28%

StatesWithNoVaccineMandates

Vaccinated 48%

Unvaccinated 31%

StatesWith Mandates Prohibited

Vaccinated 37%

Unvaccinated 34%

Basedon September2021 data. Surveyconducted08 / 26 / 2021-09/27 / 2021. Dataon vaccine mandatesfromtheKaiserFamilyFoundation.

Source: The COVID-19 ConsortiumforUnderstandingthe Public's PolicyPreferencesAcrossStates (A jointprojectofNortheasternUniversity, HarvardUniversity, Rutgers University, and NorthwesternUniversity) www.covidstates.org•Createdwith Datawrapper

Figure 4

In states with the highest average daily cases (states above the median ), approval of the

governor is lowest. In states with both the highest average daily cases and where vaccine

mandates are prohibited , one third (33 %) approve of their governor's handling of the

pandemic .

6 Note that state counts reported here exclude the District of Columbia .

The COVID - 19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States 11

Even in states with the lowest average cases, more respondents approve of their governorwhen a vaccine mandate is in place: 54% approve in states with low cases and vaccine

mandates, compared to 46% in low cases states without vaccine mandates or whereare prohibited.

Governors Of States With High Cases and Prohibitions On

Vaccine Mandates Receive Lowest Approval From StateResidents

Percentof respondentswho approveor stronglyapproveof their state governor's handlingof thecoronaviruspandemic:

StatesWithVaccineMandates

States with Highest Average Cases 50%

States with LowestAverage Cases 54%

States With NoVaccine Mandates

StateswithHighestAverageCases 39 %

States with LowestAverage Cases 46%

States With Mandates Prohibited

States with Highest Average Cases 33%

States with LowestAverage Cases 46%

Based on September2021 data. Survey conducted 08 / 26 / 2021-09 / 27 / 2021. Data on vaccine mandates from the

KaiserFamilyFoundation. Data on average cases from the New York Times. States with highest average cases areabove the median in average cases per capita between 07 / 28-08 / 26 / 2021. States with lowest average cases are

below the median in average cases percapita 07 / 28-08 / 26 / 2021.

Source: The COVID-19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States (A joint projectofNortheastern University, Harvard University, Rutgers University, and Northwestern University) www.covidstates.orgCreated with Datawrapper

Figure 5.

The COVID - 19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States 12

90 Alaska

Approval of state governors' management of the COVID- 19 outbreak by partisanship

Evolutionthroughfourteensurvey wavesApril 17, 2020- September27, 2021

Maine

4030

20

Red : Republican governor

: Democratic governorVermont Hampshire

Blue: Governor approval by Republicans: approve + strongly approve: Governor approval by Democrats : approve + strongly approve

: Governor approval by Independents : approve + strongly approve

60

: State with vaccine mandates : State without vaccine mandates50

30 30

: Statewherevaccinemandatesareprohibited

90 Washington 90Montana80

North Dakota Minnesota Wisconsin York Island Massachusetts

6050 50

160 6050

30

20-10

20 20

30

50

30

20

10

NewJersey90Wyoming80

Indiana PennsylvaniaOregon

50

Nevada

30

-10

SouthDakota

80

50

30

Connecticut

80

5050

3020

3020

30 3020

�����

20

90California Utah Colorado 90Nebraska 90Missouri Kentucky WestVirginia Virginia

The

COVID-19

Consortiumfor

Understandingthe

Public'sPolicy

PreferencesAcrossStates

Maryland80 80

60

�

20Arizona New Mexico Kansas Arkansas North Carolina

80

6060

20 South Carolina

60

50

2030

20

Louisiana89

Mississippi Alabama GeorgiaNational

Hawaii

18090 Oklahoma

50

90

8070

60

5040

30

20

10

Texas Florida

150

203020

Source: the COVID - 19 Consortiumfor UnderstandingThe Public'sPolicyPreferencesAcrossStates( joint projectof:NortheasternUniversity, HarvardUniversity, RutgersUniversity

andNorthwesternUniversity) www.covidstates.orgAvg. daily cases fromThe New York Times

Vaccinemandatesdata from the KaiserFamilyFoundationJun

20Apr

-20Aug- Dec

-20Oct-

20

Wave position follows middle date of wave

Feb-21

Apr-21

Jun-21Aug

-21

13Figure6. Downloadhigh-resolution image

The partisan gap in approval of Democratic governors has increased dramatically through

the pandemic, due primarily to a steady and dramatic decrease in approval by Republicans,from 58% in April 2020, to 29% in September 2021 (Democratic approval of Democratic

governors dropped more modestly, from 77% to 71%). Indeed, partisan polarization ofRepublican governors has decreased, largely because of a sizable drop in approval among

Republicans for Republican governors (from 77% to 55%). This divergence in partisan gapstarted after the election. In November, the partisan gap in approval of Republicangovernors was larger than for Democratic governors.

Governorapprovalby party, averageacrossall

Republican governors

8077

72

70 69

6765 65

65

63

61 61

54 5554 54

Averageapprovalofgovernormanagementof

theCOVID-19pandemic Party

Democrats

Independents

RepublicansOverall

524950

4748

4341

40 39 39

36 3738

35 3538

3435

3434 33 33

30

LateAprilEarly

MayLate

MayLate

JuneLate

JulyLate

AugustSeptemberOctoberNovember February April21

June21

DecemberJanuary

September21

Wave: position follows wave middle date

Figure 7 .

The COVID - 19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States 14

Governorapprovalby party, average across

all Democratic governors

8077

76

71

6970 68 69

6867

6665

60 58

5855

Averageapprovalofgovernormanagementof

theCOVID-19pandemic Party

Democrats

Independents

RepublicansOverall

4951 48 48

46

4743 44 44

4645 42

4341

4042

4039

41

3433 33

30 32

29

ateMay

LateAprilEarly

JuneLate

JulyLate

AugustSeptemberOctoberNovember February April21

June21

December-January

September21

Wave: position follows wave middle date

Figure 8 .

As we have noted in our earlier reports, there are five Republican governors who standout for having very high approval among Democrats (the governors of Massachusetts,New Hampshire, Vermont Maryland, and Ohio) . Indeed, throughout 2021, those five

governors have had higher average approval among Democratic respondents than amongtheir Republican counterparts. In September, this partisan approval gap stands at 8 points,down from 18 points in June (see Figure 9 . Nearly all of this narrowing of the partisan gapis attributable to declines in approval of these five Republican governors among theirfellow Republican partisans.

The COVID - 19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States 15

Average approval by party across Republican governors of Massachusetts,

New Hampshire, Vermont, Maryland and Ohio

8080

80 81

80

74

77

74 74 74 7473

7270 70

70 6968

6968 69

6967 66

6762

63 64 60 61

86060

60 60 57 5759 59

57 58

55

Averageapprovalofgovernormanagementof

theCOVID-19pandemic

Party

Democrats

Independents

RepublicansOverall

40

30

MayLate

JuneLate

JulyLate

August OctoberNovemberSeptember February April21

June21

DecemberJanuary

September21

Wave: position follows wave middle date

Figure9.

Average approval by party across Republican governors except Republican governors

of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, Marylandand Ohio

80

76

72

70

6665 64

62 6261 60

53 53 53

Averageapprovalofgovernormanagementof

theCOVID-19pandemic

50

Party

Democrats

Independents

RepublicansOverall44

41

3837

3733

353430

3531 30

30 3129 2928

2930

28 28

2625 24

23

AprilMayLateMay

OctoberNovemberLateJulyLate

AugustSeptemberLate

June February April21

June21

DecemberJanuary

September21

Wave: positionfollowswave middledate

Figure 10.

The COVID - 19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States 16

Appendix: Tables and figures

AppendixTable 1: PresidentialApproval

(Error interval in parentheses)

Late Late DecLate

Apr.20

Early Late

May May Jun .20 20 20

Oct. Nov. Jan.Jul Aug. Sep.

20 2020

Apr. Jun. Sep.

Feb. 21 21 2120 20 21

Nat. 42 40 34 35 32 59 57 4934

(1)

34

(1)

32

( 1

34

( 1

32

(1)

53

(1)( 1 ) (1 ( 1 ) (1 (1 ( 1 ( 1) ( 1

AK 41 37 42 4755 41

( 14) (10)

35 37

( 13) ( 10)

32

(10)

26 30

( 12) ( 10)

36

(7)

45

(9)

35

(9)(8 ) ( 6 ) ( 7 ) ( 9 )

AL 4254

(6 )

52

(6)

45

(6)

46

6) ( 5)

50

(6)

48

6)

46

(6) (6

49

(6)

52

(6)

43

(6)

39

6(7 )

AR 55

(6 )

51

(7

46

(7)

40

(7)

39

(7)

44

(6)

44

(8)

45

(6)

36

(7)

39

(6)

38

(5)

49

(7 )

45

(7)

37

6

AZ 42 34 35 38 31 36 37 37 50 56 4443

(7)

32

(5)

52

(6)(6 ) ( 5) (5 ) (7 ) ( 5 ) (6 ) ( 6 ) (5 ) ( 6 ) ( 7 ) (6

CA 32 34 27 28 26 67 5725

( 4)

30

(5)

25

(3)

27

( 4 )

26

(4 )

64

(5)

61

(4)( 5 ) (4 ) (4 ) (4 ) ( 4 ) (4 ) ( 4)

CO 42 27 30 34 48 61 5037

(6)

34

(6)

31

( 5 )

33

( 5 )

31

(5 )

30

(5)

58

(6)(6 ( 6 ) (6 ) ( 5 ) ( 6 ) ( 5 ) (6 )

CT 32 6134

6

31

(8)

26

(5)

22

(5)

30

( 5 )

23

(5)

28

(5)

21

(5 )

26

( 4)

56

(6

64

(5)

56

(6(6 (6 )

DE 37 28 24 33 29 28 62 58 4938

6

30

(7 )

26

(6

30

(5)

60

(7)(7 ) (6 ) (7 ) (8 ) (7 ) (6 ) (7 ) (6

FL 40 29 39 62 4742

( 5)

42

(4 )

38

(5 )

39

(5)

34

(4 )

34

( 4 )

55

(5)

59

(5)( 4 ) (4 ) (4 ) ( 4) ( 4)

GA 42 35 39 5446

( 5)

35

(6

42

(5)

38

(6)

39

(5)

36

(5 )

38

(5)

54

(6)

57

(6

57

6(5) ( 5 ) (5 ) (5 )

HI 20 23 20 27 21 26 67 5731

(7 )

30

(8)

21

(7)

19

( ) (7)

49

(6)(6 ) (5 ) (6 ) ( ) (5 ) (6 (7 )

The COVID - 19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States 17

43 39 29 29 34 40 31 30 59 4934

(7)

35

(5 )

58

(6)

56

(6)(6 ) 6 (6 ) (6 ) (7 ) (8 ) (5 ) (5 ) 6 (6 )

ID 51 46 36 49 42 45 39 41 40 3142

(6)

36

(6)

38

(6 )

42

(7)(7 ) (6 (6 ) (8 ) (7 ) (7 ) (5 ) (5) 6 (5 )

IL 28 30 6137

( 5 )

36

(5)

34

(4)

26

(5)

30

(4)

29

( 4)

33

(5 )

26

( 4)

57

(6)

63

(5)

54

( 5)(4 ) (4 ) ( 5 )

IN 39 37 30 38 39 43 41 41 52 44 4450

(6)

49

(6

39

(5 )( 6 ) 6 ) (6 ) ( 5 ) ( 6) (5 ) (5 ) (6 ) (6 ) (6 ) (6 )

KS 48 44 39 42 48 48 5138

(8)

36

(6

35

(6)

38

(6 )

31

( 5 )

35

(5)

43

(6)6 (6 ) (6 ) (7 ) (6 ) (6 ) (6 )

KY 52 47 44 47 42 46 39 40 45 49 51 3845

(6)

42

(5 )( 5 ) (6 ) (7 ) (6 ) ( 5 ) (7 ) (5 ) (5 ) (6 (6 (6 ) 5 )

LA 50 50 45 49 38 44 45 37 37 50 5142

(8)

44

(5)

46

(6)(6 ) (7 ) (7 ) (7 ) (7) (6 ) 6 ) ( 6 (7) (7 ) (7 )

MA 35 34 24 24 27 26 24 21 67 69 66 6127

( 5 )

26

(5)( 5 ) (5 ) (5 ) 4 ) (5 ) (5 ) ( ) ( 4) (5 ) (5 ) ( 6 ) 5 )

MD 2638

(6 )

27

(5)

24

( 5 )

30

(5)

22

(5)

26

(5)

27

( 4 )

30

(5 )

25

( 4 )

63

(6)

63

6

66

(5)

55

6(4 )

ME 46 37 31 40 57 5734

(6)

33

6)

38

(7)

36

(5)

31

(4)

34

(5)

52

(5)

42

6(6 6 (6 ) (7 ) (5 ) (6 )

MI 29 26 32 33 34 34 5937

( 5 )

34

(5

30

(6

36

(5)

52

(5)

60

(6)

52

(5)(5) ( 5 ) ( 5 ) ( 6 ) (4 ) (5) (5 )

MN 44 39 33 33 35 34 38 28 49 55 55 4536

(6

30

( 7)( 5 ) (6 ) ( 6 (5 ) ( 5 ) ( 5 (5 ) ( 4 ) ( 5 ) (6 ) ( 5 ) (6

MO 50 47 42 44 34 50 4436

(5 )

39

6

43

( 5 )

46

(5)

38

(5)

45

(6

48

(5)( 5 ) ( 5 ) ( 5 ) (6 ) ( 5 ) ( 6 ) ( 5)

MS 46 48 48 45 47 34 4750

(7)

37

(7)

45

(8)

35

(6)

56

(6)

52

(7)

35

(6)(7 ) (9 ) (7) (7 ) (6 ) ( 6 ) (6 )

MT 40 40 48 4049

(8 )

49

(8 )

38

(11)

35

(7)

32

(8)

45

( )

38

(6)

42

(5)

43

(6 (7)(7 ) (6 (7 ) (7 )

The COVID - 19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States 18

NC 48 46 40 35 34 40 41 33 54 59 54 5335

(6)

30

( 4 )( 5 ) (5 ) ( 5 ) (5 ) ( 5 ) (5 ) ( 4 ) (4 ) (5 ) ( 5 ) (5 ) (5 )

ND 45 52 38 40 37 4353 42

( 11) (8)

36

(8)

33

6

38

(5)

39

(6)

42

(7)

35

(6)(9 ) (9 ) (9 ) (9 ) ( ) (6 )

NE 49 34 4854

(7)

38

(10)

40

(6)

39

(6)

38

( )

34

(5)

35

(6 )

39

(5)

45

6

46

(6)

41

(7)(8 ) (7 ) (6

NH 39 34 30 33 28 31 27 60 62 5726

(5)

30

(5)

29

(5 )

56

(6(6 ) (5 ) (6 ) ( ) 6) (6 ) ( 4) ( 6 ) (6 )

NJ 37 37 30 29 28 30 25 56 67 68 6130

( 5)

32

(5)

29

(5)( 5 ) (5 ) ( 4 ) (5 ) (6 ) ( 5 ) (5 ) (6 ) (5 ) (5 )

NM 35 26 33 26 33 34 52 51 4742 30

(13) ( 10)

26

(7)

28

(6)

50

(7)(11) (8 ) (7 ) ( 7 ) (7) (7 ) (7 ) (7) (7 )

NV 39 37 31 31 34 32 33 36 27 27 53 59 4055

(6)(6 ) ( 6 ) ( 7 ) ( 6 ) (6) (6 ) (7 ) (5 ) ( 6 ) (5 ) (7) ( 7 ) (6

NY 34 35 34 29 31 28 30 32 63 72 5931

( 5 )

26

( 4 )

68

(5)( 5 ) (4 ) (4 ) ( 4 ) (5 ) (4 ) ( 4) (4 ) ( 4) (4 ) ( 4)

OH 45 41 41 5651

( 5 )

38

( 4 )

35

(5)

36

( 5 )

42

( 4

42

(5)

38

(5)

51

(5)

57

(5)

49

(5)(5 ) ( 5) (5 ) (5 )

OK 31 41 41 41 46 48 4050

(6 )

49

(7)

42

(7

43

(7)

45

(7)

39

(6)

38

(6(7) (6 (6) (5) (7 ) (6 ) (6 )

OR 36 28 28 48 5735

( 5 )

33

(5 )

35

(6)

34

(6)

35

( 6)

33

(5 )

30

(5 )

56

(6)

50

(6)(5 ) ( 5 ) ( ) (6 (7 )

PA 39 40 37 37 33 35 52 56 57 4836

( 4)

36

(6

38

( 4 )

36

(5)( 5 ) (4 ) (4 ) ( 5 ) (4 ) (4 ) ( 5 ) ( 5 ) (5 ) (5 )

RI 31 17 25 21 27 27 21 25 54 57 5239

(7 )

26

6

60

(7)( 6 ) ( 7 ) 6 ) (7 ) ( 7 ) ( 5 ) (4 ) ( 4 ) ( 6 ) ( 6 ) (7 )

SC 49 49 43 40 43 37 43 49 61 4339

( 6 )

38

(5)

35

(5)

52

(6)(6 ) (6 ) (6 ) (6 ) 6 (6 ( 5 ) (6 ) (6 ) (6 )

SD 41 41 36 41 44 3743

(9)

42

(9)

43

(8)

42

(10)

36

(6)

40

(5)

46

(7)

46

(7)( 8 ) (7 ) ( 10) ( 6 ) (6) (7 )

The COVID - 19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States

TN 50 50 44 44 45 41 46 41 40 45 53 4752

(6 )

39

(5)6 (6 ) (6 (6 ) ( 5 ) (5) (5 ) 6 (5 ) (6 ) (6 ) (6 )

TX 38 36 37 30 35 50 63 4843

( 5 )

32

(6)

36

(4 )

39

(4)

33

(5)

56

(5)(5 ) ( 5 ) ( 4 ) (4 ) (4) (5) ( )

UT 48 38 4445

(6)

39

(8)

37

(7)

32

(6)

42

(7)

38

(5)

38

(5)

35

(5)

49

(5)

47

(6

45

(6)(7 ) (7 ) (6 )

VA 42 39 33 33 31 58 67 5635

(5)

33

(6)

36

(5)

36

(5 )

35

(5)

66

(5)( 5 ) (5) (5 ) ( 5 ) ( 5 ) (5 ) (5 )

VT 33 22 33 30 21 26 19 27 55 64 4930

(8 )

27

(7)

62

(8)(7 ) (7 ) (8 ) ( 10) (9) (6 ) (6 (5 ) (6 ( 7 ) ( )

WA 30 30 26 30 32 30 31 28 25 61 59 63 5926

( 5)(6 ) (5) ( 4 ) (5 ) (5) ( 5 ) (5) (5 ) ( 4) (5 ) (6 ) (5 ) (5 )

38 32 29 30 29 34 31 29 31 6429

(5)

54

6)

58

(5)

52

( 5)( 5 ) (5) ( 5 ) (5 ) ( 5 ) ( 6) (5 ) (4 ) (5 ) ( 5 )

WV 57 58 44 48 58 50 47 40 3451

(7)

44

(7)

46

(5 )

37

6

46

(7)(6 ) ( 7 ) (9 ) (7 ) ( 8 ) (7 ( 6 ( 7 ) (6 )

WY 48 4461 67

(11) ( 12)

52 52

(11) (10)

50

(10)

46

( 11) (11)

47

(7)

44

(

35

(7)

36

(8 )

40

(9)

37

(9)(8 )

The COVID - 19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States 20

Appendix Table 2: Governor Approval

(Error interval in parentheses)

LateLateEarlyLateLateLateDec-Apr.MayMayJun.Jul.Aug.Jan.20202020202021Feb.Sep.Oct.Nov.Apr.Jun.Sep.20202021212145Nat.64595453514848484747465252(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)34AK61534851474234484541395248(14)(10)(13)(11)(11)(13)(11)(7)(8)(6)(7)(9)(9)(9)41AL60524648474446464545544549(6)(6)(7)(6)(6)(5)(6)(6)(6)(6)(6)(6)(6)(6)37AR65615247414352503641474848(6)(7)(7)(7)(7)(6)(8)(6)(7)(6)(6)(7)(7)(6)28AZ56574133303037363628323837(6)(7)(5)(5)(7)(5)(6)(5)(6)(5)(6)(7)(5)(5)54CA70675858584751484742455251(5)(4)(4)(4)(6)(4)(4)(4)(4)(5)(5)(5)(5)(4)53CO64545252515252564855526257(5)(6)(6)(6)(7)(5)(7)(5)(6)(5)(6)(5)(6)(6)62CT66666459596557636259616572(6)(6)(8)(6)(6)(6)(6)(5)(6)(5)(6)(6)(5)(6)53DE69625354516048475451535854(7)(6)(7)(6)(8)(8)(8)(6)(6)(5)(7)(7)(7)(6)36FL46464943402934393838354645(5)(4)(5)(4)(6)(4)(4)(4)(4)(5)(5)(5)(5)(4)33GA53333543373638413734354440(5)(5)(6)(5)(6)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(6)(6)(5)38HI36354143393131283739473944(8)(9)(8)(6)(7)(8)(8)(5)(7)(5)(7)(6)(7)(6)28IA52363737282527273231323538(6)(6)(7)(6)(6)(7)(7)(5)(5)(5)(6)(6)(6)(5)

The COVID-19Consortium for Understandingthe Public’s Policy Preferences Across States 21

ID64(6)54(6)51(6)49(6)42(6)34(8)46(7)41(7)36(6)31(5)33(5)43(6)44(7)30(5)52IL63545258525750504851455155(5)(5)(5)(5)(6)(5)(5)(4)(5)(5)(6)(5)(5)(5)46IN71595656504746494543545043(5)(6)(6)(6)(7)(5)(6)(5)(6)(5)(6)(6)(6)(6)41KS68585751504651515151444947(6)(6)(8)(7)(6)(6)(7)(7)(6)(5)(6)(6)(6)(6)51KY79716362595757555556525760(4)(5)(7)(6)(6)(5)(7)(5)(5)(5)(6)(6)(5)(6)53LA67676064505243494849435251(6)(6)(7)(7)(7)(6)(8)(6)(6)(5)(7)(7)(6)(7)64MA80777270706871656465596868(4)(4)(5)(5)(6)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(6)(5)60MD79726969757167666766656170(5)(5)(6)(5)(5)(5)(6)(5)(6)(5)(6)(6)(5)(5)51ME67575050545452545853525755(6)(6)(6)(6)(7)(7)(7)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(6)(6)51MI62625969676453545455525558(5)(5)(5)(5)(6)(5)(6)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(6)(5)46MN71625954525149505057525352(5)(6)(6)(5)(6)(5)(8)(5)(5)(5)(5)(6)(5)(6)34MO59494244383937413831334238(5)(5)(6)(5)(6)(5)(6)(5)(5)(5)(5)(6)(5)(5)28MS56535450423435403133344441(7)(7)(9)(7)(7)(7)(8)(6)(6)(6)(6)(6)(7)(6)42MT59625757534945494746374648(8)(7)(11)(7)(7)(8)(8)(6)(6)(5)(6)(7)(7)(7)46NC60605249485251485152505153(5)(5)(5)(5)(6)(5)(6)(4)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)

The COVID-19Consortium for Understandingthe Public’s Policy Preferences Across States 22

ND66(11)54(9)63(9)64(9)58(9)53(9)51(9)43(6)30(6)41(5)38(6)42(6)37(7)41(7)39NE63535150414042403937394341(7)(8)(10)(6)(6)(7)(9)(5)(6)(5)(6)(6)(6)(7)56NH74716871646365556061616363(6)(5)(6)(5)(6)(8)(7)(6)(6)(4)(6)(5)(6)(6)60NJ65675866606058625956516062(5)(5)(5)(5)(7)(5)(5)(5)(6)(5)(6)(6)(5)(5)50NM64675442535348484648475354(13)(10)(11)(9)(8)(8)(8)(7)(7)(6)(7)(7)(7)(7)42NV60605551474144505044445357(6)(6)(7)(6)(7)(6)(8)(6)(6)(5)(7)(7)(6)(6)57NY70706964716158576063536062(5)(4)(4)(4)(5)(5)(4)(4)(4)(5)(5)(4)(5)(4)49OH81776966585856595650576261(4)(4)(5)(4)(5)(5)(5)(4)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)32OK51484445343539363933375047(6)(7)(7)(7)(7)(6)(7)(6)(6)(5)(6)(7)(6)(6)42OR61535448473946434447395048(5)(5)(5)(6)(6)(5)(7)(6)(5)(5)(6)(7)(6)(6)41PA57565248524848474344394447(5)(5)(5)(4)(6)(5)(5)(4)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)52RI74726663716062585854405060(6)(6)(9)(6)(6)(8)(8)(6)(5)(5)(6)(7)(7)(7)36SC51494644443637384135425446(6)(6)(6)(6)(6)(6)(6)(5)(5)(5)(6)(6)(6)(6)41SD43454054544842383837434847(9)(8)(9)(7)(8)(10)(10)(6)(6)(5)(6)(7)(7)(7)31TN62515046444038434335374149(5)(6)(6)(6)(6)(5)(5)(5)(6)(5)(5)(6)(6)(5)

The COVID-19Consortium for Understandingthe Public’s Policy Preferences Across States 23

TX61(5)52(5)49(5)45(4)38(6)35(4)40(4)40(4)43(4)38(5)41(5)46(4)41(5)32(4)43UT60575649444446424040515550(6)(7)(8)(7)(6)(8)(7)(5)(5)(5)(5)(6)(6)(6)49VA59545449594646514850496164(5)(5)(5)(5)(6)(5)(5)(5)(6)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)69VT72757475757670787774717478(8)(7)(8)(7)(7)(9)(11)(6)(6)(5)(6)(6)(7)(8)55WA70655358575051545554555860(6)(5)(5)(6)(6)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(6)(6)(5)42WI56565048464339414847475653(5)(5)(6)(5)(5)(5)(6)(5)(4)(5)(6)(5)(6)(5)54WV78736765545649485554556061(5)(6)(9)(7)(7)(7)(8)(5)(7)(6)(6)(7)(6)(6)41WY65545955604842514339374650(11)(13)(11)(10)(10)(11)(11)(7)(7)(6)(7)(8)(9)(9)

The COVID-19Consortium for Understandingthe Public’s Policy Preferences Across States 24

Appendix Table 3: Predictors of Governor Approval

September Wave (08/26/21-09/27/21)

Dependent variable:

Approve/Strongly Approve of Governor Handling of Coronavirus

(1) (2)

-0.001*** -0.001***Average daily cases per 100,000

people (07.28-08.26)

(0.0001) (0.0001)

Vaccine Mandates: Prohibited -0.037*** -0.041***

(0.009) (0.008)

Vaccine Mandates: Yes 0.039*** 0.035***

(0.009) (0.009)

Republican Governor -0.029*** -0.285***

(0.009) (0.011)

Independent -0.112*** -0.232***

(0.007) (0.009)

Republican -0.080*** -0.394***

(0.008) (0.010)

Vaccinated 0.103*** 0.112***

(0.006) (0.006)

Black -0.015 0.006

(0.009) (0.009)

Hispanic -0.045*** -0.044***

(0.008) (0.008)

Asian 0.013 0.008

(0.012) (0.012)

Other Race -0.076*** -0.075***

(0.018) (0.018)

The COVID-19Consortium for Understandingthe Public’s Policy Preferences Across States 25

Male 0.029*** 0.032***

(0.006) (0.005)

0.268***Republican

Governor*Independent

(0.013)

0.625***Republican

Governor*Republican

(0.014)

Constant 0.612*** 0.719***

(0.013) (0.013)

Observations 20,718 20,718

R2 0.061 0.143

Adjusted R2 0.061 0.142

Residual Std. Error 0.410 (df = 20705) 0.392 (df = 20703)

F Statistic 112.700*** (df = 12; 20705) 246.800*** (df = 14; 20703)

Notes: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

OLS Estimates. Standard errors in parentheses. Results from weighted regressions.

Dependent variable is coded 0=Disapprove, 0.5=Neither approve nor disapprove,

1= Approve.

The COVID-19Consortium for Understandingthe Public’s Policy Preferences Across States 26

Figure 1

Demographics of the Unvaccinated Across Waves

Percent of unvaccinated respondents belonging to each group :June 2021 Wave September2021Wave

PartyIdentification

Democrat

28 %

23 %

43%

Independent45%

29%

Republican32%

Race / Ethnicity

63 %White

64 %

15%Black

15%

Hispanic16%

15%

Asian

3%

3 %

Gender

Women56 %

55 %

44%

Men45%

Age

15%18-24

15%

45%24-44

46 %

30%

45-6430 %

10%65+

9 %

Note: June waveconducted 06 / 09 / 21-07 / 06 /21. September wave conducted 08 / 26 / 21-09 / 27 / 21

Source : The COVID - 19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States ( A joint project of Northeastern University , HarvardUniversity, Rutgers University, and Northwestern University ) www.covidstates.org with Datawrapper

The COVID - 19 Consortium for Understanding the Public's Policy Preferences Across States 27