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A BUILDING BRIC FOR FUTURE GROWTH Geneva, July 15, 2010 Mike Belton, EVP Minerals Services
A BUILDING BRIC FOR FUTURE GROWTH
Geneva,
July 15, 2010
Mike Belton, EVP Minerals Services
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HEADLINE NEWS
As Asia urbanises 44 million people will join city populations every year• Each day sees the construction of 20,000 new
dwellings• Each day sees 250 Kms of new roads• Source: Asian Development Bank
If the economy of Brazil is to continue to expand at 5% a year, Brazil needs to double its annual investment in infrastructure to 4% of GDP• Source: Morgan Stanley
African consumption has grown by $275 billion since 2000, similar to Brazil’s and more than India• Source: McKinsey Global Institute
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POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR CHINA, INDIA, SAM & AFRICA, 2000 - 2030
The Demography of China and India: Effects on Migration to High-Income Countries through 2030, Migration Policy Institute
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URBANIZATION LEADS TO HIGHER GDP/CAPITA
Bethel, 2010, Sinolatin Capital
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WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION VS GDP
Beach Energy, 2010
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WORLD ELECTRICITY GENERATION
Source: www.cameco.com, world nuclear association
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PROJECTED WORLD ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL
Beach Energy, 2010
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INCREASE IN ENERGY DEMAND BY REGION
Beach Energy, 2010
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WHERE IS COAL FOUND?SGS COMMERCIAL LABS BY REGION
Source: www.worldcoal.org
SGS labs17
19 17
91
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4
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GLOBAL U EXPLORATION BUDGETS & ANNUAL AVG U PRICE
MEG 2010
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ANTICIPATED ENERGY PRICE INCREASES
Pickering, 2010, Sandvik
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CHINESE COKING COAL DEMAND
BHP Billiton, 2010
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CHINA DRIVES GLOBAL IRON ORE & STEEL INDUSTRIES
BHP Billiton, 2010
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STEEL USE INCREASES WITH INDUSTRIALIZATION AND URBANIZATION
BHP Billiton, 2010
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IRON, ALUMINUM & COPPER DEMAND TO 2030
Rio Tinto, 2010
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COPPER DEMAND LEAD BY ASIA
Haggerty, 2010
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CHINA AND INDIA COMMODITY DRIVERS
Haggerty, 2010
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GLOBAL COPPER DEMAND UNTIL 2030
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CHINA’S ROLE IN COMMODITY DEMAND
BHP Billiton, 2010
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EMERGING AFRICA 2010 VS 2020/2030
McKinsey Global, 2010
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AFRICA IS WORLD THIRD FASTEST GROWING REGION
McKinsey Global, 2010
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CONSUMPTION MORE THAN INDIA AND BRAZIL
McKinsey Global, 2010
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AFRICAN RESOURCE PRODUCTION EXPANDING
McKinsey Global, 2010
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INFRASTRUCTURE NOW SUPPLIED IN THE FINANCING
McKinsey Global, 2010
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CHINESE OUTBOUND FOREIGN INVESTMENT, 2005-2009 (MINERALS ALONE $85B)
www.forbes.com/2010/04/20/oil-energy-minerals-business-global-2000-10-china-investment-tracker.html
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AS CHINA URBANIZES ….
BHP Billiton, 2010
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VEHICLE SALES IN CHINA, INDIA AND BRAZIL
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INDIAN URBAN POPULATION TO REACH 590M BY 2030
68cities will have population of 1 million plus; Europe has 35 today
2.5 billion square metres of road will be paved
7400 kilometre
s
of metros and subways could be constructed
700-900 million
square metres of floor space will need to be built
$1.2 trillion
amount of capital investment necessary to meet projected demand in India’s cities
5the number of times which the GDP will have multiplied by 2030
McKinsey Global Institute, India's urban awakening: Building inclusive cities, sustaining economic growth, April 2010
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IN CONCLUSION
Urbanisation and demographics will drive an unprecedented period of demand for all key commodities
Asia, South America and Africa will be at the fore-front of this development
The geographical coverage of the SGS Minerals network together with our service scope will allow us to further develop our position as the premier provider of technical solutions to the mining sector
ANY QUESTIONS?
