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OCDE Meeting12/02/2007
1
A changing labour market for graduates in
France
GIRET Jean-François
Céreq
2
The French context A rapid expansion of the students’
number during the last decades of the twentieth century
A less expanding need for qualified labourA growing problem of graduate unemployment. A transition process from higher education
more difficult and longerA problem of professional downgrading (or
overeducation) and occupational mismatch.
3
Methods and data Normative methods to study overeducation and
occupational mismatch. Over-education /professional downgrading
• The difference between actual qualifications held and required qualifications for the job (overeducation if positive)
• Affichard (1981) Occupational mismatch
• A non correspondence between the field of study and the job specialization
Beduwé and alii (1993) Data :
French Labour Force Survey National longitudinal data on French school and
university leavers (Céreq)
Overeducation rate by educational level
3 years after leaving school (French labour force survey)
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
CAP / BEP BAC Supérieur court Supérieur long Ensemble
Années de sortie du système éducatif
5
Over education rate evolution (longitudinal approach by generation of school leavers)
en %
Years after the end of the school
School leavers in 3 years 5 years 7 years 10 years 15 years 1974 19 20 1980 32 28 26 22 20 1985 38 36 27 27 26 1988 28 30 30 28 1992 40 37 35 29 1995 46 39 36
Source : enquêtes Emploi (INSEE).
Occupational match for labour market entrants
School and university leavers in 92 School and university leavers in 98
First job
5 years after
Evolution First job 5 years after Evolution
% % % % % % All the educational levels 41,1 42,8 1,7 39,4 42,4 3
All educational fields
Higher education (bachelor or master degree) 49,7 53,3 3,6 46,1 51,6 5,5 Bac+2 47,3 52,7 5,4 44,0 49,8 5,8 Baccalaureate 30,3 31,9 1,6 31,1 33,6 2,5 Vocational qualification in secondary education 42,9 40,5 -2,4 39,8 38,8 -1
7
The « double mismatch »First job obtained after leaving school (graduates)
Only 32 % among young people
see their qualification match and their job specialization match !
Job specialization
Adjusted Mismatch All
Adjusted 32% 15 % 47 % Overeducated 14 % 39 % 53 %
Job qualification
All 46 % 54 % 100 %
8
Match and mismatch, first job and five years later,(higher education graduates)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45Match (qualification, job specialization)
Job specialization mismatch, job qualification match
Job qualification mismatch, job specialization mismatch
Job qualification mismatch, job specialization match
First job
Five years laters
Correlation with other effects
Over-education Wage effects:
A wage loss• (> 10%)
Other effects A higher unsatisfaction
rate A higher turnover No relationship with
occupational training
occupational mismatch
Wage effects: A moderate wage loss
• (between 0 and 5%) Other effects
No relationship with the unsatisfaction rate
No relationship with the turnover
No relationship with the occupational training
10
An example : the new labour market prospects for the bachelor's degree graduates
The vocational bachelor degree: created in 1999 (three years of study after the
baccalaureate) students must have first completed a two years of
higher education either at university (Deug) or within a vocational degree (BTS or DUT).
The third year is employment-oriented coherent with the three-circle framework “3-5-8” of
the Bologna Process can be followed by a master degree
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Does a vocational bachelor tend to be really associated with specific outcomes ?
An statistical evaluation students must have completed at least two years of
higher education and are admitted only after the basis an interview.
In other words, the admittance is based on a selection, which is not the case for general studies.
statistical method based on non parametric matching estimator
Idea : to choose a control group to match the participant group (vocational bachelor graduates) on as many observable attributes as possible in order to neutralize the selection effect
12
Wages and qualification mismatch 1. The wage gap between general and vocational
bachelor : do the returns from a bachelor degree, which
correspond to three years of study in higher education vary according to the type of programme (general or vocational)
Results : a wage premium in favour of vocational bachelor graduates
1462 € voc bach, 1256 € gen bachelor ATT=>1462 € voc bach, 1275 € gen bachelor
=>187 €2. Qualification mismatch • Results : a lower level of overeducation for voc bach.
17% voc bach, 26% gen bachelor ATT=> 17% voc bach, 35% gen bachelor
13
End…
Thank you
14
Overducation rate, 5 years after leaving school
Taux de déclassement en
mars 2003
Mesure subjective (diplôme) 25 %
Mesure subjective (niveau de compétences) 32 %
Mesure statistique socioprofessionnelle 20 %
Mesure normative du déclassement 30 %
15
Propensity score (probit)completing a vocational bachelor’s degree / an academic bachelor’s degree.
Probability (Y=vocational bacherlor graduate) Educational background
• age in the first year of secondary education (non significant)
• final secondary education diploma (vocational and technical baccalaureate versus general scientific baccalaureate, other general baccalaureate) (significant)
• first course in higher education (significant)• field of study during the bachelor year. (significant)
Others characteristics : • gender (significant)• geographic area (significant)• work experience during the study (significant,-)• family socio-economic status…(non significant)
16
Public body under the aegis of the Ministry of National Education, Higher Education and Research and the Ministry of Employment, Labour and Social Cohesion
Assignments Céreq is involved in :
• the production of statistics,• in research activity • in providing support for the implementation of policies.
A public pole of expertise in training and employment Advice and proposals for the training policy at regional,
national or international level
Resources 160-member staff, two third of them are researchers
A Base in Marseilles
Centre d’études et de Centre d’études et de recherches sur les recherches sur les
QualificationsQualifications
CEREQ’S ORGANISATIONCEREQ’S ORGANISATION
Administrative Board
Scientific Council
Ministries in charge :
•Ministry for National Education, Higher Education and Research
•Ministry of Employment, Labour and Social Cohesion
General SecretaryDeputy Director
Director
International Relations
National Partnerships
Regional Network and Decentralisation
DEVA
Transition to Working Life
1 Head of Unit14 researchers
DFC
Continuing Vocational
Training
1 Head of Unit13 researchers
DTF
Work and Training
1 Head of Unit10 researchers
DPMT
Occupations and the Labour Market
1 Head of Unit12 researchers
Communication
Informatics
Administration, Finances
& Logistics
THREE SERVICES
THREE SERVICES
FOUR
DEPARTMENTS
FOUR
DEPARTMENTS
THREE MISSIONSTHREE MISSIONS
Associated Regional Centres
A NETWORK