Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
Centre for the Study of Civil War
A clash of generations? Youth bulges and political violence Presentation to the United Nations expert group meeting on adolescents, youth and development
New York, 21-22 July, 2011
Henrik UrdalSenior Researcher, PRIOResearch Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School
Defining Internal Armed Conflict• Incompatibility over government/territory • Armed force • At least two organized parties• One is the government of a state• Minimum 25 battle-related deaths per year
Uppsala/PRIO conflict data (Gleditsch et al., 2002)
Defining armed conflict
3
Number of armed conflicts by type, 1946 - 2010
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Extrasystemic Interstate Internationalised intrastate Intrastate
4
World youth population 1950-2050
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Year
Mill
ion
% o
f adu
lt po
p
Source: United Nations Population Division (2011). Youth bulges: % aged 15-24 of adult population (15+)
5
Issue of measurement10
1520
25Y
outh
bulg
es o
f tot
al p
opul
atio
n
10 20 30 40 50Youthbulges of adult population
Age structure by different definitions (2000)
6
Youth bulges in world regions, 2010-2050
7
Youth bulges and political violence
• The opportunity perspective – Low opportunity cost– Relative cohort size– Education
• The grievance perspective – Unemployment– Education– Urbanization
8
General findings
• Large youth bulges increase the risk of smaller conflicts
• Particularly in the context of economic hardship• Many countries and regions will continue to face
significant demographic challenges
Qualifications:• No deterministic relationship• Youth bulges are declining globally• Youth bulges are also a major resource
– Demographic dividend– Contingent on human capital, labor market
Urdal, Henrik 2006. ‘A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence’, International Studies Quarterly 50(3): 607–630.
9
Youth, education and conflict
• Education increases economic opportunities• Contingent on the labor market situation• Concerns over rapid expansion• Concerns over relevance, quality
Findings (global study of 120 countries)• Provision of secondary education reduces conflict
– Conditions the effect of youth bulges• Rapid expansions in education not generally
conflictual• Gender parity in education beneficial
Source: Barakat, B. & Urdal, H. 2009. ‘Breaking the Waves? Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth Bulges and Political Violence?’, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5114.
10
Demographic dividend – geriatric peace?• Increases in the working-age population are
positively associated with economic growth• Lower education and health care expenditures,
increased savings• Early studies did not separate between ‘early-
transition’ and ‘window-of-opportunity’ countries
• Dramatic shift in the age structure 1950-2050• By 2050 only SSA has young adult shares above 25%• How will these future changes affect conflict risk?
11
Youth bulges and support ratio, Iran
12
Youth bulges and support ratio, Yemen
Results• Global study 1950-2007 separated into three pop
growth (0-14) segments– Early-transition countries: strong youth bulge-
conflict effect– Window of opportunity countries: no effect
• Conflict risk projections:– Substantial risk reductions in SSA and MENA by
2050
Demographic dividend – geriatric peace?
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Conclusions, challenges, gaps
• Continued demographic challenges: SSA, MENA, Asia• Many countries are well sitated for a demographic
(peace) dividend– Human capital concerns– Labor market situation
• Expansions in education is taking place on a significant scale– Relevance, quality (gaps)
• Vast youth unemployment challenges– Limited monitoring (major data gap)
• Limited systematic knowledge about urban youth
