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A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC SAARC Someshwar Someshwar Das Das * * SAARC STORM SAARC Meteorological Research Centre, SAARC Meteorological Research Centre, Dhaka, Bangladesh Dhaka, Bangladesh * * Permanent Affiliation: Permanent Affiliation: National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, NOIDA NOIDA - - Delhi, India Delhi, India
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Page 1: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional

Modeling over the SAARC Region

SAARCSAARC

SomeshwarSomeshwar DasDas**

SAARC STORM

SAARC Meteorological Research Centre, SAARC Meteorological Research Centre, Dhaka, BangladeshDhaka, Bangladesh

**Permanent Affiliation: Permanent Affiliation: National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting,

NOIDANOIDA--Delhi, IndiaDelhi, India

Page 2: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)

SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC)

Dhaka, BangladeshDhaka, Bangladesh

SMRCSMRC

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OUTLINE

IntroductionThunderstorm ClimatologySTORM ProgrammeSummary of pilot experiments 2006, 2007 & 2009Coordinated Field Experiment over E & NE India, Bangladesh, Nepal & Bhutan

Part - 1 SAARCSAARC

Part - 2Simulations of Thunderstorms over Bangladesh

Composite characteristics based on Radar, TRMM & WRF Model

Conclusions

Page 4: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Nor’wester/ Squall line of 3 May 2009SAARCSAARC

Page 5: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Source:Source:DWRDWRKolkataKolkata

SAARCSAARC

Nor’wester/ Squall line of 11 May 2009

Page 6: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Thunderstorm Climatology

Page 7: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Socio-Economic Impact of Severe Thunderstorm (Kal Baisaki)

• Severity of NORWESTERS: next to Tropical Cyclones • Average frequency of occurrence:

Kalbaisaki is 28 (±5) in pre-monsoon period Tropical Cyclones (2) (±1)

• Hail Storms and Squall Winds:Loss of human life and animals; Extensive damage to standing crops and property

• Highest lightning-associated casualty in the world.

• Highest frequency of hail storms in the world.

• Frequency of occurrence is second highest to that in the central regions of United States.

• May lead to flash floods

• Major aviation hazard; with several reported air plane accidents.

• Most Tornadoes in the country are associated with Kal Baisaki

Page 8: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Typical damages by a Severe Thunderstorm: 22nd April 2003, Dhubri,Assam.

•Number of affected Villages : 6

•Population Affected : 4900

•No. of human lives lost : 35

• No. of persons with serious injuries : 150

• No. of persons with minor injuries : 1350

• No. of cattle head lost : 517

• No. of poultry lost : 1340

• No. of houses fully damaged : 1350

• No of houses partially damaged : 650

•Total estimated damage :Rs. 2.00 Crore*National Disaster Management Cell (MHA, Govt. of India)

Page 9: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

SAARCSAARC

Page 10: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Monthly Frequency of Tornado occurrence in Indian Subcontinent (1839-1999)

02

8

25

14

2 14 4 4

0 00

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

months

Total : 64

SAARCSAARC

Page 11: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Diurnal variation of Hail storms in India

Monthly distribution of Hail storms in India

SAARCSAARC

Page 12: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

STORM Programme

Page 13: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

A Comprehensive Observational and Modeling study on genesis, evolution and life cycle of intense tropical convective Storms

What is STORM Programme?SAARCSAARC

Page 14: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

STORM-ObjectivesTo understand: genesis, development and propagation of severe thunderstorms

To enhance the knowledge: Dynamical and thermodynamical structure role of microphysical processes for intensification

To study behavior of atmospheric electrification during intensification process and interaction with cloud microphysical processes

Development of meso-scale prediction system with improved forecast skill

SAARCSAARC

Page 15: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

SAARC STORM: ROAD MAP

International Programme Committee (IPC)

Phase-1:2009-2011 Nor’westers

India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan

Phase-2: 2011-2013Deep, Moist & Dry StormsIndia, Pakistan, Afghanistan

Phase-3: 2013-2015Maritime & Continental StormsIndia, Sri Lanka, Maldives

Field Experiment& Implementation

Seven Working Groups

Weather Advisory & Program Management Database Management Capacity Building

& Coordination

Observational Analysis& Parameterization of

Physical Processes

Mesoscale Data Assimilation & Modeling

Cloud Microphysics &Atmospheric Electricity

SAARCSAARC

Page 16: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Mile Stones1. STORM programme originated in India in 2005

2. April-May 2006: 1st Pilot Field Experiment conducted in west Bengal

3. April-May 2007: 2nd Pilot Field Experiment conducted in west Bengal & NE India

4. Nov 2008 : The 14th GB of SMRC approved the STORM project.5. February 2009 : The SAARC Standing Committee, Programme

Committee, and the Council of Ministers endorsed the project.

6. March 2009: The International Programme committee (IPC) constituted.

7. April 2009: The 1st IPC meeting held at IMD, Delhi. The IPC recommended renaming the project as SAARC STORM

7. May 2009: A Pilot field experiment conducted in coordinated way jointly with India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Nepal focusing Nor’westers during 1-31 May.

SAARCSAARC

Page 17: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Pilot Experiment, 2006

Page 18: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Pilot Experiment (20°N-27°N, 86°-90°E), 2006Scale Environment of STORM

Synoptic Scale Environment and mesoscale; SAARCSAARC

Page 19: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Outer and Inner Meso - Net Quadrangles

Kolkata

Asnsol

Bhubaneswar

Patna

Guwahati

Murshidabad

Digha

Ranchi

SAARCSAARC

Page 20: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Pilot Experiment, 2007

Page 21: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

North-Eastern Sector

Eastern Sector

Map depicting Outer and Inner Meso-Net Quadrangles

SAARCSAARC

Page 22: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

List of installed locations of AWS in the NER as on 24th February 2007

SAARCSAARC

Page 23: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

SAARC STORM Programme

Phase-1: Nor’westers

Participating countries:

India, Bangladesh, Nepal & Bhutan

Page 24: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Coordinated Joint Field ExperimentBangladesh:

Surface obs: 35Pilot Balloon: 10RS/ RW : 3DWR : 3

Bhutan:Surface (Class-1): 21AWS :

IndiaSurface obs: 559Pilot Balloon: 62RS/ RW : 39DWR : 5

NepalSurface (Class-1): 27

AWS : 15

Pilot Field Experiment conducted during 1-31 May 2009

Page 25: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Govt. of India will provide through ISRO

50 AWS 3 GPS Sondes 1 Doppler Radar

To be installed24 AWS & 1 GPS Sonde in Bangladesh16 AWS, 1 GPS Sonde and 1 Doppler Radar in Nepal10 AWS & 1 GPS Sonde in Bhutan

To fill up the Data gap regions during the main Expts.The AWS will be fitted with Satellite telemetry systems

SAARCSAARC

Page 26: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Thank You

Page 27: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Part – 2

Simulations of Thunderstorms over Bangladesh

SAARCSAARC

Page 28: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Bangladesh: 4Bangladesh: 4--5 March 2008 Thunderstorms5 March 2008 Thunderstorms

Source:Source:DWRDWRKolkataKolkata

SAARCSAARC

Page 29: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Bangladesh: 4Bangladesh: 4--5 March 2008 Thunderstorms5 March 2008 Thunderstorms

LittaLitta, IITD, IITD

**DhakaDhaka

**SylhetSylhet

**RangpurRangpur

SAARCSAARC

Page 30: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

3

5

3

13

5

1

17

14

4

1

6

1 12

20

3

1 1

7

0

5

10

15

20

25

Bar

isal

Bog

ra

Ctg

_PB

O

Ctg

_MM

O

Com

illa

Cox

'sba

zar

Dhk

_PB

O

Dhk

_MM

O

Ishu

rdi

Khe

pupa

ra

Khu

lna

Mon

gla

Mym

ensi

ngh

Raj

shah

i

Ran

gpur

Sat

khira

Saw

ndip

Sye

dpur

Syl

het

Station name

Num

ber o

f Eve

nts

Total number of Events occurred during Pre-monsoon season (March-May) 2008

Total number of events = 108

Page 31: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Distribution of Thunderstorm Events based on Wind Speed & Direction

Tornado>150

Severe Nor’wester121-149Moderate Nor’wester91-120Light Nor’wester61-90Squally Wind41-60Gust Wind30-40TypesWind Speed Km/hr

1 (0.93%)

6 (5.56%)

49 (45.37%)50 (46.29%)

2 (1.85%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Gust Wind SquallyWind

LightNor'wester

ModerateNor'wester

SevereNor'wester

Tornado

Types

Num

ber o

f Eve

nts

(4)NE (9)

(1)(29)

(3)

SE(1)SW

(14)

NW(47)

S

N

EW

Page 32: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

A

B

8 May 2008 Time: 1413 UTC Dhaka RADAR

Case No. 2

TRMM Over Pass

2A25

Page 33: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

46.8SE12.53.023.638.6Average

41SE193.5154531may

47NE9.53404028may63SE11.55.2104524may47SE101.7254023may68SW14.73.2254522may22SE123.7304521may50NE18.22.5304017may62SE103303508may

58SE8.11.7154005may26SE18.52.5303529april31SE6.23101528april

Speed of Propagation ofThunderstorm (km/h)

Direction of Propagation ofthunderstorm

Depth of the cloud(km)

What level was Maxm

(km)

Maxm

intensity of rainfall

vertically (mm/h)

Maxm

intensity of rainfall

horizontally (mm/h)

Date(11 cases)

0

5

10

15

20

25

05_2

155

08_1

413

17_9

10

21_8

44

22_1

421

23_6

53

24_1

230

28_3

53

30_1

012

31_2

44

Date (Time,UTC)

Hei

ght (

km)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Max

. Rai

n ra

te l

(mm

/h)

Echo base Echo top Max rain rate

Page 34: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

02

46

810

1214

1618

20

28/4

/200

8

29/4

/200

8

5/5/

08

8/5/

08

17/5

/200

8

21/5

/200

8

22/5

/200

8

23/5

/200

8

24/5

/200

8

28/5

/200

8

31/5

/200

8

Date

Hei

ght i

n km

Cloud Depth Max intensity

.

Page 35: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 90 180 270

Propagation Direction (degree)

Prop

agat

ion

Spee

d (k

m/h

)

180/S

0/N

90/E270/WSESE

Page 36: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Composite Characteristics

610NALiquid water content (mg/m3)11.0.36NADowndrafts speed (max) m/s10.2.33NAUpdrafts speed (max) m/s9.

271.39186.27Length of Squall line (Km)8.7.120Maximum wind speed at surface (m/s)7.

48.747.78Speed of movement Km/hr)6.263293Direction of movement (0)5.

26.4629.67Precipitation rate at Surface (mm/hr)4.107.8321.25Intensity of Core pptn. (mm/hr)3.7.313.55Altitude of Core pptn. (km)2.15.1913.14Cloud Top Altitude (Km)1.

ModelObservationSl.No.

Page 37: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

ConclusionNone of the convective parameters can be taken as a standalone predictor for the occurrence of thunderstorms with 100% accuracy. Nor’westers propagate like parallel bow shaped squall lines having horizontal length more than 200 km Model underestimated the strength of the squall lines in general.Presence of strong vertical wind shear and, advection of warm air formed solenoidal fields during the Nor’westers.Low level positive vorticity in combination with moist southerly wind from the Bay of Bengal and strong surface heating resulted in the formations of the Nor’westers.Cloud tops reached as high as 18-20 km during the severe storms. Altitude of core precipitation was located between 3-6 km. Average cloud hydrometeor contents of the Norwesters was estimated to be 740 mg m-3.

Page 38: A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm ... · A Coordinated Field Experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling over the SAARC Region SAARC Someshwar

Thank You


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