A demographic dynamics system for A demographic dynamics system for the Brazilian Amazon’s municipalitiesthe Brazilian Amazon’s municipalities

Ricardo Alexandrino Garcia

Britaldo Silveira Soares-FilhoDaniel Nepstad

Universidade Federal

de Minas Gerais The Woods Hole Research Center

To develop a model to project urban and To develop a model to project urban and rural populations for the Brazilian rural populations for the Brazilian Amazon’s municipalities by integrating Amazon’s municipalities by integrating data on data on mortalitymortality, , fertilityfertility, and , and migrationmigration

Methodological steps:Methodological steps:

Estimation of crude death rate (mortality), crude birth rate Estimation of crude death rate (mortality), crude birth rate

(natality), out-migration and urbanization rates by Amazonian (natality), out-migration and urbanization rates by Amazonian

municipality and Brazilian Statesmunicipality and Brazilian States

Projecting the above estimates using logistic functionProjecting the above estimates using logistic function

Determining the origin-destiny matrix for migratory Determining the origin-destiny matrix for migratory

movements between the above defined spatial units. movements between the above defined spatial units.

Model implementation in a system thinking software Model implementation in a system thinking software

(VENSIM) (VENSIM)

Model validation versus 2000’s IBGE data and other Model validation versus 2000’s IBGE data and other

projection models’ outputsprojection models’ outputs

The annual projections from 1995 to 2035 are based mainly on demographic data from 1991’s and 2000’s IBGE census.

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System equationsSystem equations

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y = 0,9947x

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Model output versus Model output versus 2000’s IBGE data2000’s IBGE data

ValidatiValidationon

Urban population

4,500,000

0

4,500,000

Rural population

Model outputs Model outputs aggregated by aggregated by

subregion subregion

The model is designed to handle various The model is designed to handle various scenarios of regional migrationscenarios of regional migration

Population growth and migration represent an important Population growth and migration represent an important underlying cause of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. underlying cause of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

Linking population to Linking population to deforestationdeforestation

0

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0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

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Anthropic pressure - a synthetic Anthropic pressure - a synthetic index for deforestation potentialindex for deforestation potential

PORTO VELHO

JI-PARANA

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ARIQUEMESRIO BRANCO

CRUZEIRO DO SUL

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BOA VISTA

BELEM

SANTAREM

MARABA

TUCURUI

ALTAMIRA

CAPANEMA

ITAITUBA

PARAGOMINAS

MACAPA

PALMAS

ARAGUAINA

SAO LUIS

IMPERATRIZ

BALSAS

CUIABA

RONDONOPOLIS

SINOP

CACERES BARRA DO GARCAS

ALTA FLORESTA

SORRISO

0.8-10.6-0.80.4-060.2-040.0-02

0 .82 to 1 .0

0 .54 to 0 .82

0 .29 to 0 .54

0 .1 to 0 .29

0 to 0 .1non-data

A component to be used to project A component to be used to project deforestation within SimAmazoniadeforestation within SimAmazonia

PORTO VELHOPORTO VELHO

JI-PARANAJI-PARANA

VILHENAVILHENA

ARIQUEMESARIQUEMESRIO BRANCORIO BRANCO

CRUZEIRO DO SULCRUZEIRO DO SUL

MANAUSMANAUSTEFETEFE

HUMAITAHUMAITA

MAUESMAUES

BOA VISTABOA VISTA

BELEMBELEM

SANTAREMSANTAREM

MARABAMARABA

TUCURUITUCURUI

ALTAMIRAALTAMIRA

ITAITUBAITAITUBA

BRAGANCABRAGANCA

PARAGOMINASPARAGOMINAS

MACAPAMACAPA

PALMASPALMAS

ARAGUAINAARAGUAINA

SAO LUISSAO LUIS

CUIABACUIABA

RONDONOPOLISRONDONOPOLIS

SINOPSINOP

CACERESCACERES BARRA DO GARCASBARRA DO GARCAS

ALTA FLORESTAALTA FLORESTA

SORRISOSORRISO

density of deforesteddensity of deforested

anthropic pressureanthropic pressure

Garcia R, Soares-Filho, Swayer, D. Dimensões sócio-econômicas e movimentos populacionais: uma regionalização da Amazônia brasileira. ABEP, 2004

A demographic dynamics system for A demographic dynamics system for the Brazilian Amazon’s municipalitiesthe Brazilian Amazon’s municipalities

That’s all, folks…Thanks!That’s all, folks…Thanks!

Universidade Federal

de Minas Gerais The Woods Hole Research Center