A Development Round of Climate Negotiations

Tariq Banuri, SEI

2007

From Science to Policy

D E C ∆T I

What are

criticalimpacts

Whatis safelimit

Whatis safeconc

How muchemissions

areacceptable

What shouldwe do

Climate Tipping Points

Earth

lan

d

Climate Options

Pop

ula

tion

Per C

ap

ita In

com

e

En

erg

y

Carb

on

Em

ission

s

Con

cen

tratio

nC

CS

Sh

ift toR

en

ew

ab

les

En

erg

y

Effi

cien

cyHow muchIs enough

Limit P

op

ula

tion

The Aggregate ChallengePopulatio

nbns

GDP/capPPP$

E/YMJ/$

C/EKgC/GJ

CGtC

2005 6.42 6,541 12.1 14.8 7.5

2100IS92a

11.3 29,730 4.5 13.4 20.4

2100 9-11 25-30K Need 2-3 not 55 ~1.0

2100450

ppmTrajecto

ry

Little change possible, but final figure

could be between 9

and 11 billions

Higher income

considered

desirable but

quality of growth

could be improved

Potential for change mainly here. It needs to be about 5 per cent of

the projected numbers.

~1.0

The Context

1950 2000

• Income increase over 5x

• Trade increase nearly 12x

• 1950 – Rich 30x over Poor

• 1989 – Rich 60x over Poor

• 2000 – Rich 80x over Poor

Global inequality is higher than inequality within any country, and it is getting worse.

Per Capita Emissions and Income

Qatar

Luxembourg

United States

Singapore

Switzerland

Hong Kong, China

United Arab Emirates

Bahrain

Norway

Saudi ArabiaCzech Republic

Australia

Canada

Japan

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

GDP/Capita (PPP$)

Ca

rbo

n E

mis

sio

ns

/Ca

pit

a (

ton

s)

Source: World Bank (1998); Marland, et al. (1998).

Anil Agarwal (1948-2002) We need to follow a precautionary principle. We need to take cognizance of science very quickly, but have a healthy distrust of technological development, for whatever be its nature, when applied on a massive scale, it can have serious environmental impacts. One must be sceptical of these tendencies. Simultaneously one must take cognizance of any scientific evidence of damage at an early stage, not wait for a crisis before taking action.

Responsibility Phase: The UNFCCCPREAMBLE: Emphasizes differentiated responsibility, prevention of harm, differing needs, vulnerabilities, capabilities and resources. [12 out of 23 paragraphs]

OBJECTIVES: Calls for economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

PRINCIPLES: Each of 5 principles includes equity considerations: equity, special needs, precautionary measures, right to sustainable development, and developing country growth.

Capacity Phase: Kyoto for the North• Commitments by Annex 1 to reduce emissions by

5.2 % below 1990 by 2008-12• Mechanisms: flexible instruments, adaptation

fund, inventories and baselines• Principles: “Equity” disappears, financial and

technological transfers less prominent, focus shifts to domestic action/options, separate but equal approach to sustainable development (minimize harm), developing countries exempted

Investment Phase 2009?

• The Folly of Conventional Options– Pressure South for commitments without any

commitment on growth, inequality, or rights– Seek Southern projects only to lower Northern

costs (Expanded CDM) – how effective?– Establish a global tradable permits regime (but

is there willingness to make windfall transfers)

• Alternative approach: Support Transition to Renewables in the South

The Development Imperative

• Economic growth is the only recipe short of a global revolution to reduce inequality, establish human rights, and eradicate poverty

• The inability to mobilize international action on climate is in part because of the inequality

• Current solution—separate and equal—produces only a race between growth and catastrophe

• Only by integrating the twin goals (climate and development) can progress be made

Policy Credibility

• large-scale public works• subsidy shifting• conventional regulation• green taxes and other non-trading market

mechanisms• legal action• all backed and monitored by popular movements

and evaluated against ambitious short- and long-term targets.

Integrating Climate and Development: digging

deeper• Rethinking North and South: The structural

adjustment analogy• Rethinking technology transfer: the green

revolution analogy• Rethinking policy: consistency, what we

know, and investment• Rethinking Costs: micro or macro• Rethinking financing

Beyond Rearranging Deckchairs