+ All Categories
Home > Documents > A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF...

A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF...

Date post: 21-Apr-2020
Category:
Upload: others
View: 2 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
144
A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF BEMISIA TABACI (GENN.) POPULATION AND TOMATO LEAF CURL VIRUS DISEASE INCIDENCE Muhammad Ahmad Zeshan (Regd. No. 2005-ag-1566) M.Sc. (Hons.) Plant Pathology A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Plant Pathology DEPARTMENT OF PLANT PATHOLOGY FACULTY OF AGRICULTURE UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE FAISALABAD PAKISTAN 2015
Transcript
Page 1: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF

BEMISIA TABACI (GENN.) POPULATION AND TOMATO

LEAF CURL VIRUS DISEASE INCIDENCE

Muhammad Ahmad Zeshan (Regd. No. 2005-ag-1566)

M.Sc. (Hons.) Plant Pathology

A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment

of the requirements for the degree of

Doctor of Philosophy

in

Plant Pathology

DEPARTMENT OF PLANT PATHOLOGY

FACULTY OF AGRICULTURE

UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE

FAISALABAD

PAKISTAN

2015

Page 2: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

DECLARATION

I hereby declare that the contents of the dissertation entitled “A disease predictive model for

the management of Bemisia tabaci (Genn.) population and tomato leaf curl virus disease

incidence” are product of my own research and no part has been copied from any published

source (except the references, standard mathematical or biochemical models/equations/

formulae/protocol etc.) I further declare that this work has not been submitted for the award

of any other diploma/degree. The university may take action if the information provided is

found inaccurate at any stage, as per Higher Education Commission, plagiarism policy.

Muhammad Ahmad Zeshan

(Regd. No. 2005-ag-1566)

Page 3: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

The Controller of Examinations,

University of Agriculture,

Faisalabad.

We the Supervisory Committee, certify that the contents and form of dissertation

submitted by Mr. Muhammad Ahmad Zeshan (Regd. No. 2005- ag-1566), have been found

satisfactory and recommend that it be processed for evaluation by the external examiner(s) for

the award of degree.

SUPERVISORY COMMITTEE

Prof. Dr. Muhammad Aslam Khan : (Chairman)

Dr. Safdar Ali : (Member)

Dr. Muhammad Arshad : (Member)

Page 4: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

DEDICATED

To

My beloved Parents and family members

Who wished to see me Doctor of Philosophy

Page 5: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

All praises and thanks are for ALMIGHTY ALLAH (Jalla-Jalalaho), The

Compassionate, The Merciful, The only Creator of The Universe and the source of all

Knowledge and Wisdom Who blessed me with health, thoughts, talented teachers, co-

operative friends and opportunity to make some contribution to the already existing body of

knowledge. I offer my humblest thanks to the greatest social reformer The Holy Prophet

Hazrat Muhammad (Sallallah-O-Allah-e-Wasallum) for His services for the humanity.

The work presented in this manuscript was accomplished under the sympathetic

attitude, animate direction, scholarly criticism and enlightened supervision of Prof. Dr.

Muhammad Aslam Khan, Ex. Chairman, Department of Plant Pathology and Principal

Officer (Library), University of Agriculture, Faisalabad. I owe my deepest gratitude to his

ever-inspiring guidance, constructive suggestions and support from the initial to final level

enabling me to develop an understanding of the subject. I am greatly indebted to him for

finding me worthy of being promoted to a doctor.

It is my pleasure to extend heartiest gratitude to Dr. Safdar Ali (Lecturer, Department

of Plant Pathology, UAF) whose presence was always a source of confidence for me. I am

highly obliged and grateful to Dr. Muhammad Atiq (Assistant Professor, Department of

Plant Pathology UAF), for his valuable guidance and positive criticism. I would like to

acknowledge Dr. Muhammad Arshad (Assistant Professor, Department of Entomology,

UAF), for his dynamic and inspiring guidance. Special thanks for Dr. Ummad-ud-din Umar

for helping in serological assays.

I would like to pay special thanks to Mr. Nadeem Ahmad Ph.D. Scholar, Department

of Plant Pathology, for his guidance regarding statistical analysis. I am also thankful to my

friends Hafiz Muneeb Ahmad, Abdul Khaliq, Hafiz Attique, Asif Nadeem, Hafiz Rizwan,

Hafiz Sajid and Hafiz Arslan for their cooperation and moral support during the completion of

this project.

I don’t have words at command in acknowledging that all the credit goes to my

loving parents and brothers (Muhammad Naveed Asim, Muhammad Munir Sarwar and

Muhammad Usman Ghani) for their amicable attitude, mellifluous affections and inspiration

which hearten me to achieve success in every sphere of life.

Page 6: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Muhammad Ahmad Zeshan

LIST OF CONTENTS

Sr. No. CONTENTS Page

No.

DEDICATION i

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ii

LIST OF CONTENTS iii

LIST OF TABLES vi

LIST OF FIGURES viii

ABSTRACT ix

1 INTRODUCTION 1

2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE 5

2.1 History and taxonomy of tomato leaf curl virus disease (TLCVD) 5

2.2 Symptomology of TLCVD 7

2.3 Screening of tomato germplasm against TLCVD 7

2.4 Screening of tomato germplasm against whitefly 10

2.5 Biological assays for TLCV 12

2.5.1 Through B. tabaci 12

2.5.2 Through grafting 14

2.6 Serological assay for confirmation of TLCV 15

2.7 Host range of TLCVD 16

2.7.1 Host range of B. tabaci 18

2.8 Epidemiology of TLCVD and B. tabaci 18

2.9 TLCVD incidence and B. tabaci population predictive model 21

2.10 Management of TLCVD and B. tabaci 23

2.10.1 Management through insecticides 23

2.10.2 Management through nutrients and systemic acquired resistance 26

2.10.3 Management through plant extracts 28

3 MATERIALS AND METHODS 31

3.1 Screening of tomato germplasm against tomato leaf curl virus disease

(TLCVD) and whitefly

31

3.2 Biological assays 32

3.2.1 Through whitefly 32

3.2.2 Through grafting 32

3.3 Serological assay 33

3.3.1 Buffer formulations 33

3.3.2 DAS-ELISA procedure 34

3.3.3 Color development 35

3.4 Area under disease progress curve 35

3.5 Recording of whitefly population data from disease screening nursery 36

3.6 Collection of environmental conditions data 36

3.7 Development of predictive model for B. tabaci population and TLCVD

incidence

36

Page 7: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

3.7.1 Establishment of experiment and data recording 36

3.7.2 Analysis of data 37

3.7.3 Evaluation of model 37

3.8 Management of TLCVD and B. tabaci 38

3.8.1 Evaluation of insecticides, nutrients and plant extracts against TLCVD and

B. tabaci

38

3.8.2 Preparation of plant extracts 38

3.8.3 Data analysis 39

4 RESULTS 37

4.1 Symptomology and disease development during two years (2012 and 2013) 40

4.1.1 Screening of tomato germplasm against tomato leaf curl virus disease

(TLCVD) during 2012 under natural environmental conditions

41

4.1.2 Screening of tomato germplasm against TLCVD during 2013 under

natural environmental conditions

43

4.2 Screening of tomato germplasm against Bemisia tabaci population during

two years (2012 and 2013) under natural conditions

45

4.3 Confirmation of TLCV through ELISA and grafting 49

4.4 Correlation of environmental factors with TLCVD incidence on tomato

varieties/lines during 2012 and 2013

49

4.5 Correlation of environmental factors with B. tabaci population on different

tomato varieties/lines during 2012 and 2013

53

4.6

Characterization of environmental conditions conducive for the

development of TLCVD on five susceptible and highly susceptible

varieties/lines during two years (2012 and 2013)

55

4.7

Characterization of environmental conditions conducive for the

development of B. tabaci population on five varieties/lines during two

years (2012 and 2013)

59

4.8 Analysis of variance for B. tabaci population during two years (2012 and

2013)

62

4.8.1 Analysis of variance of environmental conditions during two years (2012

and 2013)

62

4.8.2 Comparison of environmental conditions during the years 2012 and 2013 63

4.8.3 Overall correlation of weekly environmental conditions with TLCVD

incidence during the years 2012 and 2013

63

4.8.4 Year wise correlation of weekly environmental conditions with TLCVD

incidence during 2012 and 2013 on five varieties/lines

63

4.9 Development of TLCVD predictive model based on two years data (2012

and 2013)

66

4.9.1 TLCVD predictive model assessment during two years (2012 and 2013) 67

4.9.2 Comparison of the dependent variable (TLCVD) and regression co-

efficient with physical theory

67

4.9.3 Variety wise predictive model for TLCVD incidence 69

4.9.4 Evaluation of model by comparing the observed and predicted data 70

4.9.5 Graphical representation of TLCVD predictive model based on two years

data

70

Page 8: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

4.10 Analysis of variance of B. tabaci population during two years (2012 and

2013)

72

4.10.1 ANOVA of environmental conditions during two years (2012 and 2013) 72

4.10.2 Comparison of environmental conditions during the years 2012 and 2013 72

4.10.3 Correlation of weekly environmental conditions with B. tabaci population

during 2012 and 2013

73

4.10.4 Year wise correlation of weekly environmental conditions with B. tabaci

population during 2012 and 2013

73

4.11 Development of B. tabaci population predictive model based on two years

data (2012 and 2013)

76

4.11.1 Comparison of the dependent variable (B. tabaci) and regression

coefficients with physical theory

77

4.11.2 Variety wise predictive model for B. tabaci population 78

4.11.3 Evaluation of model by comparing the observed and predicted data 78

4.11.4 Graphical representation of B. tabaci population predictive model based on

two years data (2012 and 2013)

78

4.12 Management 80

4.12 Evaluation of different treatments against TLCVD during two years (2012

and 2013)

81

4.12.1 Analysis of variance for TLCVD management during the years 2012 and

2013

81

4.12.2 Comparison of different treatments against TLCVD incidence 81

4.12.3 Comparisons of TLCVD incidence with spray and year 83

4.12.4 Comparisons of treatments and years against TLCVD incidence 83

4.12.5 Comparisons of TLCVD incidence with variety and spray 83

4.12.6 Comparisons of TLCVD incidence with variety, spray and year 84

4.13 Analysis of variance for B. tabaci management during 2012 and 2013 85

4.13.1 Comparisons of different treatments against B. tabaci population 85

4.13.2 Comparisons of B. tabaci population with spray and year 87

4.13.3 Comparison of treatments and years against B. tabaci population 87

4.13.4 Comparisons of B. tabaci population with variety and spray 87

4.13.5 Comparisons of B. tabaci population with variety, spray and year 88

5 DISCUSSIONS 90

6 SUMMARY 99

CONCLUSION 101

RECOMMENDATIONS 102

LITERATURE CITED 103

Page 9: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

LIST OF TABLES

Table

No.

Title Page

No.

3.1 Disease rating scale 32

3.2 Treatments used against TLCVD and B. tabaci 39

3.3 Plant extracts used against TLCVD and B. tabaci 39

4.1 Resistance level of tomato germplasm against TLCVD under natural

conditions during the year 2012 42

4.2 Resistance level of varieties/lines to TLCVD under natural conditions

during the year 2013 44

4.3 Resistance level of tomato germplasm against B. tabaci population

during 2012 46

4.4 Resistanec level of tomato germplasm against B. tabaci population

during 2013 48

4.5 Confirmation of resistance level against TLCV through graft

inoculation and ELISA 50

4.6

Pearson’s correlation coefficients of environmental factors with

TLCVD incidence on different tomato varieties/lines during 2012

and 2013

51

4.7 Pearson’s correlation coefficients of environmental factors with B.

tabaci population on tomato varieties during 2012 and 2013 53

4.8 ANOVA for TLCVD incidence during 2012 and 2013 63

4.9 Comparison of environmental conditions for TLCVD incidence

during two years (2012 and 2013)

64

4.10a Analysis of variance of environmental factors (maximum and

minimum temperature) during 2012 and 2013 65

4.10b ANOVA of environmental factors (relative humidity, rainfall and

wind speed) during 2012 and 2013 65

4.11 Overall correlation of weekly environmental conditions with TLCVD

incidence during 2012 and 2013 66

4.12 Year wise correlation of environmental conditions with TLCVD

incidence during two 2012 and 2013 66

4.13 Summary of stepwise regression model to predict TLCVD incidence

during two years 2012 and 2013 67

4.14 Regression statistics of the predictive model for TLCVD based on

two years (2012 and 2013) data 68

4.15 ANOVA of the TLCVD predictive model for based on two years

environmental conditions data 68

4.16 Co-efficient of variables, their standard error, t Stat, P-value and

Significance 68

Page 10: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

4.17

Summary of stepwise regression model developed to predict TLCVD

incidence with respect to environmental factors on five tomato

varieties/lines during two years

69

4.18 Multiple regression equations based on environmental conditions and

predicted TLCVD incidence values during two years 71

4.19 ANOVA for B. tabaci population during two years (2012 and 2013) 72

4.20 Comparison of environmental conditions for B. tabaci population

during two years (2012 and 2013) 73

4.21 Correlation of weekly environmental conditions with B. tabaci

population during 2012 and 2013 74

4.22 Year wise correlation of weekly environmental conditions with B.

tabaci population during 2012 and 2013 on five varieties/lines 74

4.23a Analysis of variance of environmental factors (maximum and

minimum temperature) during two years 75

4.23b Analysis of variance of environmental factors (relative humidity,

rainfall and wind speed) during two years (2012 and 2013) 75

4.24 Summary of stepwise regression model to predict B. tabaci

population during 2012 and 2013 76

4.25 Regression statistics of the predictive model for B. tabaci based on

two years (2012 and 2013) 77

4.26 Analysis of variance of the predictive model for B. tabaci based on

two years (2012-2013) 77

4.27 Coefficients of variables, their standard error, t Stat, P-value and

significance 77

4.28

Summary of stepwise regression model developed to predict B.

tabaci population with respect to environmental factors on five

tomato varieties/lines during two years

78

4.29 Multiple regression equations based on environmental conditions and

predicted B. tabaci population values during two years 80

4.30 ANOVA for TLCVD management during 2012 and 2013 82

4.31 Comparisons of different treatments against TLCVD incidence 82

4.32 Comparisons of TLCVD incidence with spray and year 83

4.33 Comparison of treatments and years against TLCVD incidence 84

4.34 Comparisons of TLCVD incidence with variety and spray 84

4.35 Comparisons of TLCVD incidence with variety, spray and year 85

4.36 ANOVA for B. tabaci population during two years (2012 and 2013) 86

4.37 Comparisons of different treatments against B. tabaci population

during two years 86

4.38 Comparisons of B. tabaci population with spray and year 87

4.39 Comparison of treatments and years against B. tabaci population 88

4.40 Comparisons of B. tabaci population with variety and spray 88

4.41 Comparison of B. tabaci population with variety, spray and year 89

Page 11: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure

No.

Title Page

No.

3.1 ELISA results 35

4.1 Upward curling and yellowing of leaves due to TLCVD 40

4.2 Tomato plant with stunting and cupping symptoms caused by TLCVD 41

4.3 Relationship of maximum temperature with TLCVD incidence on five

tomato varieties during 2012 and 2013 56

4.4 Relationship of minimum temperature with TLCVD incidence on five

tomato varieties during 2012 and 2013 57

4.5 Relationship of relative humidity with TLCVD incidence on five tomato

varieties during 2012 and 2013 57

4.6 Relationship of rainfall with TLCVD incidence on five tomato varieties

during 2012 and 2013 58

4.7 Relationship of wind speed with TLCVD incidence on five tomato

varieties during 2012 and 2013 58

4.8 Relationship of maximum temperature with B. tabaci population on five

tomato varieties during 2012 and 2013 60

4.9 Relationship of minimum temperature with B. tabaci population on five

tomato varieties during 2012 and 2013 60

4.10 Relationship of relative humidity with B. tabaci population on five tomato

varieties during 2012 and 2013 61

4.11 Relationship of rainfall with B. tabaci population on five tomato varieties

during 2012 and 2013 61

4.12 Relationship of wind speed with B. tabaci population on five tomato

varieties during 2012 and 2013 62

4.13 Normal probability plot and residuals versus fit for TLCVD predictive

model

70

4.14 Normal probability plot and residuals versus fit for the B. tabaci

population predictive model

81

Page 12: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

ABSTRACT

Tomato is an important vegetable crop of global importance. Tomato leaf curl virus disease

(TLCVD) transmitted by whitefly Bemisia tabaci (Genn.) is a serious threat for the

successful tomato production under field conditions. Twenty seven varieties/lines were

screened against TLCVD and B. tabaci under natural conditions. None of the screened

varieties/advanced lines was found to be highly resistant against TLCVD and varied greatly

in disease incidence during both years (2012 and 2013). Eight varieties/lines (Naqeeb, Pakit,

Nagina, Riogrande, 09080, Roma, 09091 and Nutyt-04-11) were found to be resistant against

TLCVD. Ten varieties/lines (Carmen, Roker, Lyp#1, 09079, Nutyt-25-11, 09088, Uovo

Roseo, Nutyt-9-11, Po-02 and 10113 were categorized as moderately resistant and

moderately susceptible respectively. Nine varieties/lines (Salma, 014276, Sitara-TS-101,

10125, 10127, Libnan Arif, BL-1-176-Riostone-1-1, Big Beef and Caldera) were found to be

highly susceptible and susceptible against TLCVD incidence during two years 2012 and

2013. A significant (P<0.05) correlation was observed between maximum and minimum

temperature and TLCVD. The correlation of minimum temperature and B. tabaci population

was significantly positive while the correlation of relative humidity with B. tabaci population

and TLCVD incidence was negative i.e. lower humidity has more B. tabaci and TLCVD. The

relationship of B. tabaci population and TLCVD incidence with rainfall and wind velocity

was found non-significant during two years (2012 and 2013). Precise prediction of whitefly

and TLCVD could be helpful in deciding the timely application of treatments. A disease and

vector predictive model based on 2 years of epidemiological data was developed for the

prediction of TLCVD and B. tabaci population infestation. Y= 0.532+ 0.053x1+0.97x2-

0.081x3+0.15x4 R2= 0.85 where Y= TLCVD, x1= Maximum temperature, x2= Minimum

temperature, x3= Relative humidity, x4= Rainfall, Y= -7.76+0.231x1+0.21x2-

0.092x3+0.11x4+0.086x5 R2= 0.92 where Y= B. tabaci, x1= Maximum temperature, x2=

Minimum temperature, x3= Relative humidity, x4= Rainfall, x5= Wind speed. Different

pesticides/biopesticides were evaluated for management of Bemisia tabaci and the disease.

All the six treatments reduced B. tabaci population and TLCVD incidence significantly

compared to untreated control. Imidacloprid was the most effective to manage the B. tabaci

population. Acetamiprid was at number second and Azadirachta indica (Neem) was at

number third whereas Salicylic acid, Classic (Zn and Boron) solution and Eucalyptus

globules (Eucalyptus) were at number four, fifth and sixth respectively in managing the B.

tabaci population and TLCVD incidence.

Page 13: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

Tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) belongs to the Solanaceae family which

also contains other important species such as potato, tobacco, peppers and eggplant. It

originated in Latin America and has become one of the most widely grown vegetables with

ability to survive in diverse environmental conditions (Rice et al., 1987). Tomatoes are

generally used as a model crop for various cellular, biochemical, molecular, genetic and

physiological studies because they are easily grown, have a short life cycle and are easy to

manipulate (Dan et al., 2006). Tomatoes contribute to a healthy diet by providing rich

amounts of minerals, essential amino acids, sugars and dietary fibers etc. It contains abundant

vitamin B, C, iron and phosphorus. Canned and dried tomatoes are economically important

processed products (Glick et al., 2009). Tomato production has been emphasized not only as

source of vitamins but also as a source of income and food security because it has become a

high value cash crop and subsistence vegetable for farmers (Nagaraju et al., 2002). Tomato

provide high profits to farmers and employment opportunities to rural laborers because this

crop requires more labor inputs as compared to other crops (Mari et al., 2007). Current

production of tomato is approximately 150 million tons in the world which is cultivated on

4.6 million hectares (FAO, 2011). The area under tomato production in Pakistan is 52.3

thousand hectares and annual yield is 529.6 thousand tons (GOP, 2011).

The yield and quality of the tomato is severely affected by different biotic and abiotic

stresses. Tomato crop is susceptible to a large number of diseases caused by different fungi,

bacteria, nematode and viruses (Rivard and Louws, 2008). Several viruses like tobacco

mosaic virus (TMV), potato virus X (PVX), tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV), potato

virus Y (PVY) beet curly top virus (BCTV) and cucumber mosaic virus (CMV) etc. attack

tomato crop (Navas-Castillo, 1999; Moriones and Navas-Castillo, 2000). Tomato leaf curl

disease (TLCD) is a remarkable biotic stress for production of tomato in the tropics and

subtropics, commonly in South and Southeast Asia (Chakraborty, 2008). This disease is of

economic importance (Valizadeh et al., 2011) as the yield of TYLCV-infected plants is

Page 14: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

reduced qualitatively and quantitatively (Makkouk et al., 1979; Al-Musa, 1982; Fang et al.,

2013). In case of severe attacks, infection of the plants range from 5 to 100% (Varma and

Malathi, 2003). TLCVD is the most widespread among viral diseases and found in several

Middle Eastern, African, Asian and Mediterranean countries. TLCVD is caused by a

complex group of viruses including TYLCV and TLCV (Fauquet and Stanely, 2005).

TYLCV can be divided into three major clusters worldwide based on geographical origin

(Mediterranean/Middle East/African region, India/Far East/Australia and Americas)

(Czosnek and Laterrot, 1997). In Asia (India, Pakistan) and Australia this virus is recognized

as tomato leaf curl virus (TLCV) which is transmitted by whitefly Bemisia tabaci

(Muniyappa et al., 2000; Stonor et al., 2003). TLCV causes tomato leaf curl virus disease

(TLCVD) in Pakistan (Mansoor et al., 1997). TLCV belongs to the Geminiviridae family

which contains plant viruses with a circular, single-stranded DNA genome and two

incomplete icosahedral geminate particles (Pandey et al., 2009). Geminiviridae is classified

into four genera on the basis of vector type, host range and genome sequences (Fauquet and

Stanley, 2003). Begomoviruses such as TLCV are the most devastating genera for tomato

plants worldwide especially in tropical and subtropical regions (Czosnek and Laterrot, 1997).

TLCVD is differentiated by stunting, chlorosis, upward curling of leaves, crinkling,

puckering and yellowing with reduced flower and fruit setting. Infected plants have a bushy

appearance due to shortening of internodal length with more lateral branches (Kumar et al.,

2012). TLCV is transmitted by whitefly B. tabaci (Gennadious) which belongs to order

Hemiptera and family Aleyrodidae in a circulative and persistent manner (Boykin et al.,

2007). B. tabaci can acquire the virus from an infected source in five minutes of acquisition

access period (Atzmon et al., 1998). A single whitefly can transmit TLCV successfully after

4-8 hours of inoculation access period (Hidayat and Rahmayani, 2007). B. tabaci can

transmit TLCV horizontally as well as vertically by sexual and transovarial passage

respectively (Ghanim et al., 2007). The latent period of TYLCV in B. tabaci is between 8-24

hours (Ghanim et al., 2001). The virus can also be transmitted through grafting because it

involves the union of cambial layers of stock and scion, either of which might be infected

with a virus (Mathews, 1970).

Environmental conditions play a vital role in the spread of the disease epidemics and

vector population buildup (Khan and Khan, 2000). TLCVD incidence and whitefly

Page 15: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

population tend to increase during high temperature, low rainfall and relative humidity

(Sastry et al., 1978). The developmental time of whitefly increases with a decrease in

temperature (Bonato et al., 2007). The temperature range from 25°C to 30°C is favorable for

whitefly build up and rapid generation time (Tiwari et al., 2013). Disease predictive model is

used to explore the possibility of disease outbreaks by studying the inoculum in a particular

area and the suitable environmental conditions for the pathogen which lead to forecast

disease, provide significant information to decide risk, cost-benefit ratio, site selection,

selection of propagative material and implementation of a timely disease management plan to

protect crop precisely (Morales et al., 2004; Naerstad et al., 2007). In southern India, a

disease predictive model was developed by using biological and epidemiological data for the

management of TLCVD where alternate host plants of virus and whitefly are frequent (Holt

et al., 1999). Vector activity and behavior, particularly with respect to virus transmission are

key factors for the frequency and amount of epidemic development (Jeger et al., 2004).

Several pesticides applied against the insects failed to control the B. tabaci which attributed

to the development of insecticidal resistance (Costa and Brown, 1991). The non-judicious use

of pesticides causes environmental pollution and increases the cost of crop production (Xiliu,

2000).

Keeping in view the heavy losses caused by the TLCVD and B. tabaci, varietal

resistance would be the best option for disease management. Resistant plant hosts would be a

cheap, efficient and viable option as no chemical options available for the suitable

management of TLCVD problem. Therefore, it was necessary to record the disease incidence

and vector population with respect to environmental conditions in Pakistan. The relationship

of environmental conditions with TLCVD and B. tabaci provided a base for the development

of the disease and vector predictive models which would eventually help the farmer to

recognize, evaluate and choose proper management approaches against these pests. The

present research includes the development of epidemiological models to predict the TLCVD

incidence and B. tabaci population buildup. Adaptation of different management options

comprising pesticides/biopesticides and nutrients would help to compare their efficacy

against TLCVD and B. tabaci. Use of environment friendly bio-products to manage the

insect vector population and the viral pathogen in an economical way is a pre-requisite to

successful tomato production. The hypothesis of the current study was that the incidence of

Page 16: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

TLCVD could be predicted by determining the role of environmental factors for its timely

management. The objectives of the present study were following:

To evaluate tomato germplasm for the identification of sources of resistance against

TLCVD and B. tabaci

To develop predictive models for the management of B. tabaci population and TLCVD

incidence

To evaluate different pesticides/biopesticides and nutrients against the TLCVD and B.

tabaci

In order to fulfill the above mentioned objectives following line of work was adopted.

a) Evaluation of the tomato germplasm against TLCVD incidence and B. tabaci population,

so that resistant, tolerant and susceptible varieties/lines could be identified. The resistant

varieties could be given to farmers directly or incorporated in the breeding program. The

tolerant varieties could be exploited by chemicals/nutrients application. Susceptible to

highly susceptible varieties could be used for TLCVD and whitefly predictive model.

b) Confirmation of virus through grafting and whitefly mediated inoculation and (double

antibody sandwich-enzyme linked immune sorbent assay) DAS-ELISA

c) Characterization of environmental conditions conducive for TLCVD and B. tabaci

d) Development of TLCVD and B. tabaci population predictive models for their timely

management through pesticides/biopesticides and nutrients

e) Evaluation of pesticides and biopesticides and nutrients for the management of TLCVD

and B. tabaci.

Page 17: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

CHAPTER 2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE

2.1. History and taxonomy of tomato leaf curl virus disease (TLCVD)

TYLCD-like symptoms were firstly described in the late 1920s in the Jordan valley of

Israel and severe disease epidemics occurred in the early 1960s. From the late 1980s, a rapid

geographical spread of TYLCD started on large scale and its dissemination stretched from

Japan in the east to Spain in the west, Reunion Island and Australia in the south (Cohen and

Lapidot, 2007). Lefeuvre et al., (2010) proposed that TYLCV was first examined in Middle

East between 1930s and 1950s but the worldwide spread of this virus started in 1980s after

the evolution of the mild (Mld) and Israel (IL) strains of TYLCV. The Mediterranean basin is

the central launching point for the global movements of TYLCV. According to Cohen and

Harpaz (1964) the name TYLCV was devised in the early sixties for the description of a

whitefly transmitted virus that attacked the tomato crop in Middle East. TYLCV disease

incidence were sporadic in the sixties but became a severe economic problem in the early

seventies, when yield losses mostly reached upto 100%. All the tomato growing areas in

Middle East were affected by the virus untill the end of 1970s (Ioannou, 1985). In the 1990s,

TYLCV attacked tomato crops in several countries of the New World and abruptly spread in

North America and in the Caribbean (Polston and Anderson, 1997). Currently, TYLCV is

present in most Mediterranean countries and regions of sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Australia,

Caribbean Islands, Central America, Japan and Mexico (Glick et al., 2009).

TYLCD is associated to a complex of viral species, including TYLCV, tomato yellow

leaf curl Axarquia virus (TYLCAxV), tomato yellow leaf curl Malaga virus (TYLCMalV),

tomato yellow leaf curl Mali virus (TYLCMLV) and tomato yellow leaf curl Sardinia virus

(TYLCSV) all inducing similar symptoms on tomato plants (Anfoka et al., 2005). TYLCV

consists of single stranded DNA and single genomic components with the exception of

Page 18: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

TYLCTHV from Thailand which consists of two genomic components (Rochester et al.,

1994). Several related whitefly-transmitted viruses infecting tomato are known as TLCV and

have been identified in Australia and India. TLCV isolates from Australia, southern India

(Bangalore) and Taiwan have a single genomic component (DNA-A) whereas in northern

India isolates with two genomic components were found (Muniyappa et al., 2000). Based on

the worldwide surveys, DNA and protein sequence comparison, TYLCV can be

approximately grouped into three main groups specifying viruses from the

Mediterranean/Middle Eastern/African region, Indian/Far Eastern/Australian region and the

American region (Czosnek and Laterrot, 1997). In Southeast and East Asia, as well as in

various countries of the Old World, the viruses associated with leaf curl disease have been

termed as TYLCV or TLCV (Zeidan et al., 1998). TYLCV in India, sub-Saharan Africa

(Nigeria and Senegal) and Southeast Asia exists as different strains from the Mediterranean

virus, which are known as western Mediterranean, Sardinian, Israeli and eastern

Mediterranean strains (Abou-Jawdah et al., 1995; Padidam et al., 1995; Deng et al., 1994;

Nakhla et al., 1993). Many viruses are described as TYLCV generically but they are different

from each other. Recently recommends nomenclature recommends the addition of the

location from where the virus was isolated (Fauquet et al., 2008).

A review of the discussions on the taxonomy of the begomoviruses that cause leaf

curl symptoms in the tomato plants suggest that it is a complex of viruses (Glick et al., 2009)

with different names across the world. The symptoms caused by these begomoviruses are the

same (curling, cupping upward, stunting and yellowing), all are transmitted by the B. tabaci

in a persistently circulative mode and belong to family Geminiviridae (Mazyad et al., 2007).

Despite all these facts, these viruses are divided into three different clusters in the world

(Czosnek and Laterrot, 1997). The viral complex in India and Australia is termed TLCV

instead of TYLCV because the species complex in these regions is bipartite while TYLCV is

monopartite (Muniyappa et al., 2000). However of TYLCV strains, TYLCV-Th is bipartite

(Rochester et al., 1994) and TLCV-Banglore is monopartite like most TYLCV complex. The

yellowing symptoms are produced by both type of complexes. Some workers say that the

viral complex should followed by the name of region/country in which the particular virus is

discovered (Fauquet et al., 2008). To resolve the taxonomical issues of TLCV and TYLCV,

Page 19: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

virologists should consider symptomology, biology and serology as well as location the virus

of a particular sequence is discovered.

2.2. Symptomology of TLCVD

The symptoms of TLCV include vein clearing, reduction in leaf size, stunted growth,

deformation of leaflets, puckering of leaflets, thickening, epinasty, crumpling, blade

reduction, abnormal shoot proliferation, internode reduction, leaves curling inward and

outward result in bushy appearance. The infected plants produce few fruits which are small

and no fruits, if infected at very early stage (Diaz-Pendon et al., 2010). The leaflets in

TYLCV infected plants cup downward and inward in a hook-like shape, become yellow and

show interveinal and marginal chlorosis (Zhang et al., 2008).

2.3. Screening of tomato germplasm against TLCVD

Tomato leaf curl virus (TLCV) causes severe damage to tomato crop worldwide

every year (Kumar et al., 2012). TLCV disease is mainly the cause of intensive cultivation of

susceptible tomato germplasm (Seal et al., 2006). A study based upon the symptom severity

and yield loss was conducted to screen tomato germplasm against TLCVD in different agro-

ecological zones of Indian Gujrat. Almost complete destruction of tomato crop was observed

in Kheda district followed by other districts with 50-80% disease severity and heavy yield

losses depending upon the environmental conditions and cultural practices (Shelat et al.,

2014). The most effective and eco-friendly approach for the management of TLCVD is the

cultivation of resistant varieties/lines (Kasrawi et al., 1988). In order to obtain stable and

durable resistances, forty one tomato varieties collected from diverse locations were screened

to evaluate their response against TYLCVD. Results revealed 12 resistant, 16 tolerant and 8

susceptible varieties (Camara et al., 2013). The resistance and tolerance of different tomato

varieties were estimated by ratio of infected plants, virus titre and symptom intensity (Rubio

et al., 2003). Infected plants showed that leaf relative water contents (RWC), total soluble

sugars (TSS), fresh and dry biomass, photosynthetic pigments level were less as compared to

Page 20: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

healthy plants (Mushtaq et al., 2014). Out of six tomato cultivars only three (Hatouf, Douna

and Saria) were resistant against TLCVD with low incidence while Super Marmande, Speedy

and Ginan showed susceptible reaction with varying levels of disease incidence in nursery

and field conditions (Al-Refai et al., 2007). The accessions with less number of infected

plants could be the result of late TYLCV infection related to whitefly population variation.

This difference in response might be due to the virus strain, vector genotype or different

feeding conditions of the vector (Delatte et al., 2006; Navas-Castillo et al., 1999). During

autumn season sixty accessions of tomato were evaluated against TLCVD under natural

conditions followed by artificial screening under glasshouse through whitefly and grafting.

The resistant reaction was confirmed by only three lines viz. 58-11-1-1, LCT-8-5 and 115-1-

8-1 because no viral symptom appeared on all grafted plants of these genotypes even after 50

days of grafting (Gaikwad et al., 2009). There is a lack of natural resistance in domesticated

varieties of tomato as compared to wild species (Pico et al., 1998). Singh (2014) found three

resistant and eleven moderately resistant genotypes out of thirty two screened under

glasshouse conditions. Only wild genotype H-88-78-1 showed immunity against TLCVD.

Wild tomato species were screened for the identification of resistant source in tomato

as no resistance was found in domesticated tomato (Lapidot and Friedmann, 2002). Under

field conditions, one hundred and sixty cultivars of tomato were evaluated for resistance

against TLCVD. Only two wild genotypes Lycopersicon hirsutum (LA 1223) and L. hirsutum

(LA 1353) were immune to TLCVD incidence (Ragupathi and Narayanaswamy, 2000). In

India, thirty four wild and domesticated tomato cultivars were screened against TLCV in

glasshouse and field based upon symptomology. Wild relatives of tomato, L. hirsutum LA

1777 and PI 390659 were found as the durable resistance source against TLCV (Maruthi et

al., 2003). In L. hirsutum, two epistatic genes are associated with TYLCV resistance (Hanson

et al., 2000). Only wild relatives from the L. chilense and L. peruvianum showed highly

resistant response against TYLCV when twelve tomato genotypes were screened using

whitefly mediated inoculation techniques (Pico et al., 1998). TYLCV resistance is controlled

by Ty-1 gene in L. chilense, which reduces virus titres and movement of the virus for long

distance in the plant (Michelson et al., 1994). Likewise, L. glabratum (B6013) and L.

typicum (A1904) proved to be highly resistant against TLCV after screening under three

different environmental conditions (Banerjee and Kallo, 1987). More than one thousand

Page 21: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

domesticated and wild tomato accessions were evaluated for TYLCV resistance under field

conditions in United Arab Emirates based on phenotypic response. Domestic varieties were

found more susceptible to TYLCV infection as compared to wild accessions (Hassan et al.,

1991).

Assessment of virus titer along with phenotypic evaluation of disease severity is

necessary for germplasm screening. Therefore, one hundred and thirty four domesticated

accessions and six wild tomato lines were screened against TYLCV based on symptom

development and DNA amplification. None of the varieties was resistant to TYLCV in

domesticated tomato while all six lines of wild species were resistant (Azizi et al., 2008). The

resistance in the wild relatives of tomato L. peruvianum could be due to the high acyl sugar

contents which are considered to be whitefly repellent (Liedli et al., 1995). Virus

accumulation was very low in four tomato lines developed by introgression from L. chilense

as compared to commercial F1 hybrids ARO 8479 and HA 3108 in which high virus titre was

detected (Gomez et al., 2004). Different TYLCV tolerant and susceptible tomato lines were

checked for viral DNA accumulation. DNA was analyzed by alkaline transfer and dot spot

hybridization using cloned viral DNA as a probe. Results showed that tolerant lines

contained 10-50% less DNA as compared to susceptible ones (Rom et al., 1993). Virus titre

and symptom severity showed positive correlation (Pico et al., 2001). Phenotypic and

molecular screening of thirty accessions from Solanum lycopersicum L. was done for

resistance against TYLCV. All the tomato accessions exhibited different grades of disease

symptoms. Phenotypic evaluation was confirmed by amplification of viral DNA fragment in

all tested accessions. None of the accessions showed complete resistance to TYLCV in

Ghana based on the phenotypic and molecular evaluations. Accessions having milder

symptoms of TYLCVD under field conditions were considered as tolerant (Osei et al., 2012).

Stress responses of tomato plants revealed that susceptible plants were higher in reactive

oxygen species (ROS) compounds, the anti-oxidative compounds, pathogenesis-related (PR)

and wound-induced proteins than resistant ones. Sources of carbon and nitrogen were more

in resistant than susceptible plants, which could make resistant plants more balanced and fit

to sustain viral infection (Moshe et al., 2012). Furthermore, chemical components of tomato

leaves, mainly chlorophyll (a and b), lipids, fatty acids, proteins and reducing sugars were

decreased in infected leaves as compared to healthy leaves of test plants. Whereas, infected

Page 22: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

leaves exhibited more phenol accumulations than healthy ones. Electron microscopy of

TYLCV infected leaves showed ultrastructural changes in various organelles such as empty

vacuoles, irregular oily inclusions, severe damage in chloroplasts and uneven thickenings of

phloem tissues (Montasser et al., 2012).

Breeding programs have been successful by transferring resistance genes from wild

accessions into cultivated tomato (Vidavsky and Czosnek, 1998). Extensive experiments

were conducted for the development of resistant cultivars against TYLCV. Highly resistant

breeding lines were developed by evaluating the wild Lycopersicon spp. (Pilowsky and

Cohen, 1990) which included Solanum cheesmaniae, S. chilense, S. habrochaites, S.

peruvianum and S. pimpinellifolium (Pico et al., 1996; Vidavsky et al., 1998) and degree of

resistance was checked based on symptomology (El-Dougdoud et al., 2013). The genes

controlling TYLCV resistance were characterized from the wild species by using classical

genetic methodologies (Ilana et al., 2009). After the wide germplasm screening of Solanum

habrochaites, only two TYLCD resistant genotypes (EELM-388 and EELM-889) were

obtained and characterized further. It was found that two independent dominant and recessive

loci were linked with resistance in EELM-889 which were different from Ty-1 resistance

gene usually introgressed in domestic tomato genotypes (Tomas et al., 2011). Two TYLCV

resistant lines (BC1F1 and BC1F4) were obtained after crossing wild relatives. Analysis of

segregation showed that resistance is controlled by two to three recessive genes while

tolerance by a single dominant gene (Vidavsky and Czosnek, 1998).

2.4. Screening of tomato germplasm against whitefly

B. tabaci is the most serious pest which harms tomato plants by feeding causing leaf

and fruit spotting, irregular fruit ripening and honeydew secretion followed by sooty mold

growth (Byrne and Miller, 1990). The major economic threat is from the whitefly transmitted

begomoviruses viruses, especially TYLCV (Lapidot and Polston 2006). Due to the very low

level of resistance in domesticated tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum) against whitefly

(Freitas et al., 2002) as well as expensive pesticides that are hazardous to humans and

environment (Morales, 2007), natural plant defenses present in wild relatives of tomato were

manipulated against whitefly. The best resistance source was an accession of Solanum

galapagense (Firdaus et al., 2012) which has abundant type IV trichomes (Simmons and

Gurr, 2005). Non-preference of whitefly to the wild tomato species is due to the high

Page 23: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

trichome density (Sanchez-Pena et al., 2006). Exudates secreted by the trichomes are of

prime importance in resistance against whitefly (Fancelli et al., 2005). These exudates have

insecticidal methylketones such as 2-tridecanone and 2-undecanone (McDowell et al., 2011).

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) for reduced whitefly egg deposition were found in Solanum

habrochaites LA1777 (Momotaz et al., 2010). Six tomato varieties (Gress, Idola, Ovation,

BTM-855, Martha and Cosmonot) were evaluated for eggs, nymphs and adult of B. tabaci on

the upper, middle and lower leaflets, percentage of geminivirus infected plant and marketable

yield. The results showed significant infestation of B. tabaci in Gress, Idola and BTM-855 as

compared to Martha, Cosmonot and Ovation. None of the varieties was found to be resistant

against geminivirus, however Martha was relatively resistant to B. tabaci and geminivirus

with the highest yield of 42.09 t/ha. This variety had high density of glandular trichome,

which was effective in reducing oviposition and nymphal feeding. The number of B. tabaci

was found higher at the upper leaf than the middle and lower leaves (Setiawati et al., 2009).

Socio-economic studies showed that farmers could gain up to 10 times more profit by

growing the resistant varieties against TLCV as compared to the susceptible varieties.

Cultivation of resistant varieties was also resulted in reduced pesticide use. Therefore, three

high yielding resistant tomato varieties were developed against TLCV using conventional

breeding and screening techniques comprising inoculation by viruliferous whitefly (Colvin et

al., 2012). The tomato genotypes were screened against TYLCV, viruliferous B. tabaci were

used for inoculation in insect proof cages following 48 and 72 hours of acquisition and

inoculation feeding periods, respectively. Disease severity data was recorded weekly

following a 0-4 disease rating scale. The susceptible cultivar Moneymaker was severely

affected by TYLCV while resistant tomato line TY172 showed no symptoms (Kashina et al.,

2004). Resistant cultivars TY 172 and TY 197 inhibited TYLCV effects and exhibited less

yield loss regarding average fruit weight and fruit size as compared to susceptible varieties

(Lapidot et al., 1997). Ten determinate tomato cultivars were screened in order to find the

correlation between against TLCVD incidence and whitefly population at different days after

planting (DAP). Results showed that 45 DAP was the critical time for viral infection in the

plants in relation to disease incidence, vector population and yield losses. The cultivar Punjab

Chhuhara was the most resistant, followed by Sel-7 (Ali et al., 2002). Wild and cultivated

tomato varieties were evaluated against whitefly. Wild tomato leaves showed resistant

Page 24: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

response against whitefly oviposition while significant whitefly oviposition was found on

young leaves as compared to older leaves in cultivated tomatoes (Guo et al., 2013).

Similarly, young seedlings were preferred by the whiteflies for oviposition during in-vivo

screening (Campos et al., 2005).

2.5. Biological assays for TLCV

2.5.1. Through B. tabaci

B. tabaci has become a global threat for many greenhouse crops (Martin et al., 2000).

B. tabaci cause huge losses to crops by phloem feeding, induction of phytotoxic disorders,

excretion of honeydew and transmission of plant viruses. The whitefly is described as

‘superbug’ because of its effect on agricultural production (Dalton, 2006; De Barro, 2008;

Liu et al., 2007). B. tabaci can transmit more than 15 viruses that cause 40 plant diseases

(Brown and Bird 1992). A single B. tabaci can transmit TYLCV after feeding on infected

plants for 48 hours. The transmission rate of the virus was 70% when groups of five and ten

whiteflies were used (Green and Sulyo 1987). B. tabaci transmit TYLCV persistently. The

latent period of TYLCV in its vector is 20-24 hours (Ghanim et al., 2001). TYLCV is

transmitted to healthy plants after a 6-8 hours period of inoculation feeding (Berlinger et al.,

2002). The virus develops within the phloem and induces cytological changes

(Channarayappa et al., 1992).

Biotype B of B. tabaci (Mehta et al,. 1994) transmits TYLCV more efficiently

(McGrath and Harrison, 1995). The endosymbiotic bacteria of B. tabaci produced a 63-kDa

GroEL protein which help in TYLCV transmission. Biological assays by B. tabaci showed

that the biotype B was more capable to transmit TYLCV as compared to biotype Q. In

biotype B, GroEL protein produced by Hamiltonella interacts with coat protein (CP) of

TYLCV while GroEL produced by Rickettsia and Portiera does not interact with CP of the

virus (Gottlieb et al., 2010). Survey indicated that the rapid spread of TYLCV may be

associated with Hamiltonella infection of B. tabaci. Five endosymbiotic bacteria from

various B. tabaci populations were analyzed by comparing rDNA sequences. Hamiltonella

was detected in all the populations tested (Park et al., 2012).

Page 25: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

During a study of virus vector relationship it was found that a single whitefly can

transmit TYLCV. The minimum requirement of the whitefly was 30 minutes for each of the

acquisition feeding, inoculation feeding, pre-acquisition starvation and post-acquisition

starvation periods, to transmit the TYLCV. The young seedlings of 20 days were highly

susceptible against TYLCV (Rashid et al., 2008b). B. tabaci inoculates young leaves more

efficiently as compared to older leaves. The symptoms appeared 15 days after inoculation

(Ber et al., 1990). The efficiency of TYLCV transmission was increased by increasing

acquisition access period (AAP), inoculation access period (IAP) and insect number when

the relationship of TYLCV and B. tabaci were studied in Saudi Arabia. TYLCV disease

incidence ranged from 85-96% in different regions of Saudi Arabia both in tunnel and field

conditions (Ajlan et al., 2007). The acquisition of TYLCV from a tolerant or resistant plant,

and its transmission by whiteflies is less efficient than those for a susceptible plant (Lapidot

et al., 2001). The TYLCV infection rates varied from 40 to 87% in susceptible genotypes and

the rate of virus acquisition from resistant genotypes was less than from susceptible

genotypes during the evaluation of tomato germplasm against whiteflies and TYLCV. The

results showed that the resistant genotypes can also influence disease epidemics by serving as

reservoirs of TYLCV and whitefly (Srinivasan et al., 2012). Whiteflies can acquire TYLCV

from infected tomato fruits and consequently transmit it to the healthy tomato plants (Delatte

et al., 2003).

The efficiency of TYLCV acquisition and transmission varies with the gender and

age of whitefly. Female whiteflies transmit TYLCV and tomato leaf curl Banglore virus

(TLCBV) with higher efficiency than male whiteflies (Cohen and Nitzany, 1966; Muniyappa

et al., 2000). Adult female B. tabaci of 1-2 week age could infect tomato plants after a 48

hours inoculation access period (IAP). In contrast, almost 20% of the male whiteflies of the

similar age were capable of infecting the plants. Inoculation capability decreased with the age

of the insects; 60% of the 3 week old females were able to cause infection, whereas male

whiteflies of similar age did not infect any plant. Only 20% of the 6 week old female B.

tabaci were capable of infecting the tomato plants (Czosnek et al., 2001). Insects that

emerged during a period of 24 hours, were caged with TYLCV infected plants for a

acquisition access period of 48 hours. The capability of the viruliferous B. tabaci for the

transmittion of TYLCV in tomato plants gradually decreased with age but did not vanish

Page 26: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

entirely. Transmission by viruliferous whiteflies decreased from 100% to 10-20% during

their adult lifetime (Rubinstein and Czosnek, 1997). TYLCV can be transmitted between

male and female B. tabaci during sexual intercourse in the absence of any virus source

(Ghanim and Czosnek, 2000). Effects of TYLCV acquisition on the physiology of B. tabaci

were studied by comparing lifespan of viruliferous (V) and non-viruliferous (NV) B. tabaci.

The lifecycle of V whiteflies was 10.64 days shorter than NV whiteflies which was up to

62.5 days. The susceptibility of whiteflies to temperature was investigated by comparing

mortality rate and level of mRNA in heat shock proteins (hsp) of both the V and NV

whiteflies. Both NV and V whiteflies were subjected to 3°C and 35°C for 4 and 25 hours,

respectively. The mortality rate in V whiteflies was higher than NV ones. Results showed

that TYLCV acquisition increased the susceptibility of whitefly against thermal stress which

reduced its longevity due to enhanced metabolic energy consumption (Pusag et al., 2012).

By immuno-electron microscopy it was shown that begomovirus TYLCV can enter

midgut epithelial cells of the vector whitefly but not those of a non-vector whitefly,

Trialeurodes vaporariorum, belonging to the same family. In midgut epithelial cells of

viruliferous whitefly, the virus was localized in vesicle like structures, suggesting

endocytosis as an entry mechanism (Uchibori et al., 2013). The insect feeds on phloem sap of

TYLCV infected plants and ingests the virus. TYLCV particles then pass through the food

canal, esophagus and filter chamber, which filters out sugar and water. Virus particles are

transported from the gastric caeca into the descending midgut, which contains a single layer

of epithelial cells and is the main virus entry site. TYLCV then enters primary salivary gland

cells and finally is excreted into the saliva as another source of inoculum (Morin et al.,

2000). TYLCV enter as virions or ssDNA to the nucleus and form a chromatin for further

replication, using a polymerase machinery in host cells. This chromatin is the dsDNA

wrapped around 13 nucleosomes at maximum. For interactions with factors that drive

transcriptions and translations, this chromatin is opened at certain genomic points. The mode

of replication is similar to phages and uses a rolling circle mechanism (Jeske et al., 2001).

After injection into the phloem by B. tabaci, TYLCV replicates in infected cell nuclei and

spreads systemically through the plant. After the whitefly injects its stylets intercellularly

between epidermal cells, virions are usually deposited into the sieve elements (SE), although

in some cases they are deposited into companion cells or vascular parenchyma cells (Wege,

Page 27: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

2007). For replication, the genomic DNA must enter a nucleus via coat protein (CP)

mediation of the TYLCV genome (Kunik et al., 1998; Rojas et al., 2001). After entering the

nucleus, viral DNA moves systemically through the plant via sieve tubes assisted by the

capsid and movement proteins (Gronenborn, 2007).

2.5.2. Through grafting

TYLCV is not transmitted through seeds or mechanically. The other successful mean

of TYLCV transmission is through grafting (Kashina et al., 2007). Graft inoculation was

done under glasshouse conditions in 36 F1 hybrids and 13 parents of tomato for their

resistance to TLCV. A wedge shaped virus infected scion was inserted into a similar cut of

the stock. The grafted plants were kept in screen house (at 25±°C and 72.4% relative

humidity) to check graft success, virus prevalence and symptoms severity. The symptoms of

TLCV developed within 2-4 weeks. The hybrids FLCR5 x MLCR4 and FLCR5 x MLCR1 and

the parents FLCR1, FLCR3, FLCR5, MLCR4, MLCR5 and MLCR6 recorded the lowest

disease incidence (Sankari et al., 2002). The differences in disease incidence and symptom

severity could be attributed to different virus concentrations in scions, physiological

conditions and initial recognition activities between scion and stock (Ioannou, 1985).

2.6. Serological assay for confirmation of TLCV

Serological assays are widely used in identification of TYLCV despite the limitations

of obtaining abundant purified coat protein for the production of antisera (Chiemsombat et

al., 1991). Enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) is the most common technique for

the detection of viruses in insect vectors, plant material, seeds and vegetative materials

(Clark and Adams, 1977). ELISA is used to test a large number of samples in a quite short

time period due to its flexibility, sensitivity and economy in use of reagents (Almasi et al.,

2013). The procedure of ELISA is based upon binding reaction of antigen with antibody on

epitopes surface of viral particles along with specific binding sites for antiviral antibodies

(Cohen et al., 1989). Two types of antibodies are produced by injecting antigen protein into a

suitable animal. Polyclonal antibodies bind on different epitopes of the antigenic protein

(Guo et al., 2006) and monoclonal antibodies binds to one specific antigenic determinant on

the antigen (Wu et al., 2012). Coat protein of bean golden mosaic virus Brazil isolate

(BGMV), cabbage leaf curl virus (CabLCV), TYLCV and tomato mottle virus (TMoV) were

used for the production of polyclonal rabbit antisera. The polyclonal antisera were found

Page 28: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

suitable for the detecting the begomoviruses in different assays (Abouzid et al., 2002) while

Muniyappa et al., (1991) detected and characterized TLCV through monoclonal antibodies.

The purpose of using monoclonal antibodies was to study the relationship between

geminiviruses (Macintosh et al., 1992) from different geographic areas that share specific

epitopes (Harrison et al., 1991). In triple antibody sandwich (TAS-ELISA) monoclonal

antibodies were used to detect tomato geminiviruses (Credi et al., 1989). TAS-ELISA was

used for accurate differentiation between highly susceptible and highly resistant genotypes

(Abou-Jawdah et al., 1996).

2.7. Host range of TLCVD

The domesticated tomato L. esculentum is the main host of TYLCV. Many wild

relatives of tomato such as S. chilense, L. hirsutum, S. peruvianum and S. pimpinellifolium

contain symptomless carriers that are used as progenitors in breeding programs for resistance

against TYLCV (Zakay et al., 1991). Laboratory inoculation by viruliferous whiteflies and

field sampling surveys have indicated a potentially wide host range of TLCV, covering 13

plant species in 9 botanical families. Host plant families include Asclepiadaceae, Asteraceae,

Fabaceae, Malvaceae, Solanaceae, Gentianaceae, Cleomaceae, Cucurbitaceae and Apiaceae

(Kegler, 1994). Pepper Capsicum species were screened against TYLCV and C. baccatum,

C. chinense and C. frutescens found susceptible. Moreover, B. tabaci were found capable to

acquire TYLCV from infected pepper plants and transmit it to the healthy tomato plants

(Polston et al., 2006). TYLCV-Eg isolate was transmitted by whiteflies and syringe injection

in different plant species belonging to families Chenopodiaceae, Cucurbitaceae, Fabaceae

and Solanaceae with 80% and 100% transmission efficiency, respectively (El-Monem et al.,

2011). A severe attack of leaf curl virus affected 80-90% of sunhemp plants in research fields

of NBRI, Lucknow. Whitefly transmitted the virus from infected to healthy sunhemp plants.

The PCR amplification of the viral DNA with begomovirus specific primers and its

hybridization with a DNA-A probe of Indian tomato leaf curl virus indicated that it was a

begomovirus (Khan et al., 2002). TLCV caused yellow leaf disease in cantaloupe and wax

gourd (Samretwanich et al., 2000) in Thailand.

Some cultivated plants including bean (Phaseolus vulgaris), petunia (Petunia

hybrida) and lisianthus (Eustoma grandiflorum) are hosts of TYLCV and developed severe

symptoms with whitefly mediated inoculation. Further plant species such as the weeds

Page 29: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

species Cleome viscose (Caparidaceae) and Croton lobatus (Euphorbiaceae) were found

susceptible against TYLCV but did not produce disease symptoms (Salati et al., 2002). An

extensive study was conducted in Cyprus to screen naturally infected weed species against

TYLCV disease incidence and prevalance. About 4,000 dicotyledonous plants from 122

species and 25 families were tested against TYLCV through serological and molecular

techniques. Different plant families such as Amaranthaceae, Chenopodiaceae, Solanaceae

and Urticaceae were found infected with TYLCV when checked using real-time PCR. It was

concluded that destruction of alternate hosts may be the easiest management strategy for

TYLCV (Papayiannis et al., 2011).

After testing 210 samples of 95 weed species, Conyza sumatrensis, Chenopodium

murale, Datura stramonium, Dittrichia viscosa, Malva parviflora, Solanum nigrum,

Convolvulus sp. and Cuscuta sp. were found infected with TYLCV (Jorda et al., 2000).

Weeds, such as D. stramonium and Cynanchum acutum showed distinct symptoms, while M.

parviflora was symptomless carrier (Czosnek et al., 1993). In order to find out the weed

hosts of TYLCV, different weeds were inoculated with viruliferous whiteflies. Amaranthus

dubius was found the only infected weed when detected based on PCR amplification. In A.

dubius, viral symptoms were observed 11 days after inoculation and transmission rate was

83%. The successful back transmission of TYLCV from A. dubius to tomato plant was also

checked by using whitefly adults (Guerere et al., 2012). Solanum nigrum, collected from a

field in southeast Spain and exhibiting leaf curl symptoms, was squash blotted onto nylon

membrane and gave a positive signal when hybridized to a TYLCV-Is DNA probe.

Laboratory tests showed that whitefly transmitted the TYLCV-AL from infected tomato

plants to healthy S. nigrum seedlings. The virus could be acquired by whitefly and

transmitted back from infected S. nigrum plants to tomato plants, inducing typical TYLCV

disease symptoms. These results indicate the importance of S. nigrum as a weed

host/reservoir for a TYLCV and its possible role in the spread of this virus within Europe

(Bedford et al., 1998).

A survey of natural weed hosts that could be reservoirs of TYLCV was performed in

major tomato production areas of Korea. About 530 samples were collected and identified as

belonging to 25 species from 11 families. PCR and Southern hybridization were used to

detect TYLCV in samples and replicating forms of TYLCV DNA were detected in three

Page 30: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

species (Achyranthes bidentata, Lamium amplexicaule and Veronica persica) by Southern

hybridization. TYLCV transmission mediated by B. tabaci from TYLCVinfected tomato

plants to L. amplexicaule was confirmed and TYLCV-infected L. amplexicaule showed

symptoms such as yellowing, stunting and leaf curling. TYLCV from infected L.

amplexicaule was also transmitted to healthy tomato and L. amplexicaule plants by B. tabaci.

The rate of infection of L. amplexicaule by TYLCV was similar to that of tomato. These

results were the proof that L. amplexicaule is a reservoir weed host for TYLCV (Kil et al.,

2014). TLCV was also detected in 13 weed species generally found in Karnataka, based on

symptomology and TAS-ELISA. TLCV was transmitted successfully from infected weeds to

healthy tomato plants by whitefly (Ramappa et al., 1998).

2.7.1. Host range of B. tabaci

B. tabaci cause huge losses in tomato crop by direct feeding and transmitting

geminiviruses worldwide (Inbar and Gerling, 2008). B. tabaci attack more than 600 plant

species including a number of weed hosts such as Borreria verticilliata (Rubiaceae), Cleome

espinosa (Cleomaceae), Herisanthia hemoralis (Malvaceae), Richardia grandiflora, Senna

obtusifolia (Fabaceae), Stachytarpheta sanguinea (Verbenaceae), Waltheria indica, W.

rotundifolia (Sterculicaceae) (Oliveira et al., 2001). Whitefly infestation on tomato was

higher than weeds (Bezerra et al., 2004). Legaspi et al., (2006) found whitefly eggs and

nymphs on cotton, collards, cowpea, tomato and hibiscus. B. tabaci selectively colonizes

cassava and sweet potato (Legg, 1996) while Butler et al., (1986) observed that whitefly

prefers cotton for oviposition.

2.8. Epidemiology of TLCVD and B. tabaci

In India after a number of experiments it was found that the most effective time for

planting of tomato is October to Mid-December followed by January to first March. Further,

it was added that TLCV disease appeared very early (25 to 45 days) when the crop was

planted between 16th March to 16th September and there was delayed appearance (132 to 162

days) of the disease between October to Mid-December (Saklani and Mathai, 1977). Tomato

crops planted during the months of December to May are subjected to low rainfall, low

humidity and high temperature which helped for high population of whitefly and high TLCV

incidence resulting in low yield. Whereas the tomato planted during July to November are

subjected to high rainfall, high humidity and low temperature, resulting in low whitefly

Page 31: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

population, low incidence of TLCV with better yield of tomatoes (Sastry et al., 1978). In

Saudi Arabia TYLCV caused severe epidemics in summer and early autumn due to favorable

conditions for whitefly population build up whereas winter planting exhibited low infection

with minor symptoms. Tomato genotypes showed varying response of susceptibility against

the viral infection (Mazyad et al., 1979). B. tabaci attacks tomato from April to November

with highest infestation in August to October. Tomato sown in February was rarely infested

with B. tabaci but plants sown in April became severely infested during the flowering and

fruiting stage resulting in 40% crop loss (Shaheen, 1983). TLCVD in Sudan was most severe

during the hottest months of the year, even though vector populations during this period were

relatively low. This could be due to increased vector activity and host vulnerability under

very high temperature conditions (Yassin, 1983).

The seasonal pattern of disease incidence and severity determined in Mediterranean

and Middle Eastern countries indicated that disease incidence was highest and symptoms

were most severe during the hot and dry summer months but negligible during the cold and

rainy winter months (Makkouk and Laterrot, 1983). Epidemiological studies of TYLCV

revealed that sowing time significantly reduces the disease. The disease incidence, severity

and rate of spread were maximum in summer and early autumn transplanted crops because of

abundant whitefly populations while crops transplanted in winter and early spring escaped

TYLCV infection completely (Ioannou and Lordanou, 1985). All growth stages of tomato

plants were found susceptible to TLCV infection. TLCVD incidence in Karnataka was 17-

53% in July-November sowing as compared to 100% in February-May crop. In late sowings,

50-70% less yield losses were observed as compared to early sowings (Saikia and

Muniyappa, 1989). TYLCVD incidence was more severe in August transplanted crops as

compared to October transplanted crops. A good correlation between whitefly populations

and TYLCVD incidence was found during hot months. Yield losses ranged from 24.6 to

80.7% in relation to the infection period. The symptomatology depends on the temperature

and the time of infection (Polizzi and Asero, 1993). The severity of tomato mosaic virus

disease (TMVD) was increased when the pepper plants were inoculated during warmer

months of the year as compared to inoculation during cooler months. This result suggested

that increase in temperature is directly proportional to disease severity (Schuerger and

Hammer, 1995).

Page 32: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

TYLCV outbreaks always followed in months with a mean relative humidity less than

60% and mean maximum temperature of 30°C in Israel (Nitzany, 1975). Effect of

environmental factors was studied on the TLCV disease incidence in different tomato

cultivars in India. It was found that high temperature and humidity increased TLCV disease

incidence in the plants with the maximum infection was obtained at 25°C and 79.73%

relative humidity (Rai et al., 2001). Correlation of environmental conditions (maximum

temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, clouds and wind velocity)

with okra yellow vein mosaic virus (OYVMV) disease severity and whitefly population was

determined on commercially grown okra varieties. Minimum temperature and relative

humidity had significant correlation with OYVMV disease severity and whitefly population.

The disease incidence was positively correlated with minimum temperature while the

whitefly population was negatively correlated with relative humidity (Ali et al., 2005a). The

influence of air temperatures, rainfall and relative humidity on whitefly and MYMV severity

was found significant through stepwise regression analysis two years (2003-2004) data

(Khan et al., 2006). Similarly, hot weather with little or no rainfall was found conducive for

OYVMV disease development and also for B. tabaci multiplication (Singh, 1990). Beniwal

et al., (2006) also found the negative correlation between CLCuVD and maximum

temperature and relative humidity. A negative correlation was found between TLCV disease

incidence and wind direction when observations were made in Sudan for five growing

seasons. The highest rate of TLCV spread was found in the early stages of growth, mostly

within 7-10 weeks after planting (Yassin, 1975).

The effect of temperature (17, 21, 25, 30 and 35°C) on life history parameters of

whitefly population was studied. Temperature dependent interactions were described for

immature developmental rate, immature survival, fecundity and longevity. Development time

was 20 days at 30°C and 56 days at 17°C with the lowest thermal threshold was observed at

10.2°C. The optimum temperature for immature development was 32.5°C. Total fecundity

(eggs per female) ranged from 105.3 (at 21°C) to 41 (at 35°C). The longevity decreased with

the increase in temperature. The relationships between temperature and life history traits

provided a basis for development of population models (Bonato et al., 2007). The optimum

temperature and relative humidity ranged for the buildup of whitefly population was 20-24°C

and 46-60%, respectively (Bishnoi et al., 1996). The mean development time in days from

Page 33: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

egg to adult was 37 at 20°C and 20 at 25-30°C. Temperatures of 25°C and 30°C were found

to be the most favourable for the development of egg and nymph stages of B. tabaci

(Darwish et al., 2000). Maximum temperature was significantly correlated with whitefly

density in the semi-arid region of Rajisthan, India (Kumhawat et al., 2000).

2.9. TLCVD incidence and B. tabaci population predictive model

Plant diseases carry major health, economical, environmental and social problems

around the world. Therefore, it is necessary to describe the dynamics of plant disease for

sustainable disease management strategies and reduce the effect of diseases in crops.

Dynamics of epidemic is described by using different mathematical tools including models,

area under disease progress curve (AUDPC), linked differential equation (LDE) and

computer simulation. The mathematical tools are selected according to the nature of the

problem and requirements of the epidemiologist (Medina et al., 2009). Several disease

progress measurements are combined through AUDPC into a single value when assessments

in the first or last observations have a relatively large variance (Simko and Piepho, 2012).

The temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of epidemics are jointly determined by the

pathosystem characteristics and environmental conditions using mathematical and statistical

modeling (Maanen and Xu, 2003). Models predict the likelihood of disease outbreak on the

basis of past and future (Shtienberg, 2000). Vector transmitted viral diseases were predicted

and analyzed by developing disease predictive models (Pethybridge and Madden, 2003). A

model was developed and analyzed to determine the effect of vector transmission on plant

virus disease epidemic development (Jeger et al., 2009). Analysis of an epidemiological

model revealed that varietal resistance is the most appropriate way of TLCVD management

and the infected tomato plants has little impact on disease incidence. Application of

insecticides to reduce the whitefly population is also necessary (Holt et al., 1999).

The relation between feeding behavior of whitefly and transmission of TYLCV was

studied. There was a positively significant relationship between phloem contacts and

transmission efficiency. The minimum duration of contact between B. tabaci and phloem of

the tomato plant for transmission of TYLCV was 1.8 minutes (Jiang et al., 2000). The

relationship between TYLCV transmission and whitefly population on tomato varieties was

Page 34: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

determined under the field conditions. There was non-significant quadratic polynomial

relationship (y = -0.005x2 + 0.28x – 1.54 and R2 = 0.96) between temperature and whitefly

population build up. A negatively significant relationship was found between relative

humidity and whitefly population (y = - 0.032x2 +4.55x – 159.44 and R2 = 0.67). There was a

positively significant correlation between number of whiteflies and TYLCV transmission in

the tomato field (y = - 0.001x2 + 0.03x + 1.06 and R2 = 0.66). In all the varieties, virus

prevalence was found higher at mid stage as compared to late and early stages of infection

(Rahman et al., 2006). Epidemiological studies showed that a significant and positive linear

relationship (Y = 23.24+0.74x and R2

= 0.61) was found between the whitefly population and

TYLCV infection under field conditions. Likewise, the whitefly population was positively

correlated with temperature and negatively correlated with relative humidity (Aktar et al.,

2008).

An experiment was conducted to evaluate the effect of different planting dates on

TYLCV incidence and whitefly population in tomato fields. The highest TYLCV incidence

(%) was observed at 75 DAP during the period of March and April planting followed by May

planting, but the lowest TYLCV incidence (%) was found in November planting followed by

December planting. A strong correlation was obtained between TYLCVD incidence and

number of whitefly in tomato plants. A regression line was fitted between whitefly

population and TYLCV incidence. The correlation coefficient (r) was 0.81** and the

contribution of the regression (R2 = 0.65) indicated that 65% TYLCV infection increased by

whitefly (Rashid et al., 2008a). A disease predictive model was developed for the

management of tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) and its vector based upon weather factors

in tobacco. It was observed that the weather affected thrips activity and disease incidence

during summer, particularly during the acqusition of virus from natural reservoirs and

transmission to healthy host plants. There was a positive correlation between thrips activity

and spring rainfall regarding disease incidence (Chappel et al., 2013).

A climate probability model was developed through Flora Map in Latin America

where whitefly and geminiviruses cause heavy losses in vegetables. The data were collected

and grouped from 304 geo-referenced points indicated low rainfall of 80 mm and

temperature above 21°C. A modified Koeppen climate classification revealed that the

geminiviruses attacked 55% areas are in the tropical wet or dry climates, 22% areas in

Page 35: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

tropical and subtropical dry or humid climates and 23% areas in wet equatorial and trade

wind litoral climates. These results contributed towards the understanding of whitefly and

geminivirus epidemics as well as adoption of integrated pest and disease management

strategies (Morales and Jones, 2004). The population of B. tabaci was initiated at about 48

standard meteorological weeks (sMw), increased at first slowly up to 1 sMw then steadily up

to 5 sMw attaining the maximum at about 6 sMw which was maintained up to about 9 sMw.

The population then declined at first slowly then abruptly. Incidence of TYLCV was

correlated with B. tabaci population. Maximum and minimum value of TYLCV was noted at

about 15 and 50 sMw respectively. Abiotic conditions had significant negative influence on

B. tabaci population. In case of relative humidity gradient a positive influence was observed

(Kaushik, 2012).

2.10. Management of TLCVD and B. tabaci

2.10.1. Management through insecticides

The chloronicotinyls or neonicotinoids (imidacloprid, acetamiprid, nitenpyram and

thiamethoxam) have shown good efficacy in controlling aphids, whiteflies and other insects

(Bacci et al., 2007; Ishaaya et al., 2007). These compounds bind with acetylcholine receptor

(nAChR) in the CNS of insects. Neonicotinoids mimic acetylcholine and induce unusual

excitement in the insect by disturbing the normal synaptic transmission. Eventually, the

insect suffers from excitation and paralysis, followed by death. Neonicotinoids are effective

against the insects on contact and through stomach action (Tomizawa et al., 1995; Lind et al.,

1999). Translaminar movement permits the insecticide to control pests on both sides of the

leaf. The insecticides with translaminar movement capability are of significance importance

against sucking pests such as aphids and whiteflies that live and feed primarily on lowerside

of the leaves (Natwick, 2001; Parrish et al., 2001). Confidor (Imidacloprid) and Megamos

(Acetamaprid) along with other insecticides were evaluated at field recommended dose

against whitefly population. All the insecticides were applied at economic threshold level

(ETL) of whitefly. Confidor and megamos caused significant mortality of whitefly as

compared with other insecticides (Amjad et al., 2009). Four insecticides were evaluated

against B. tabaci on tomato plants. The results showed that imidacloprid gave highly

reduction in the mean number of B. tabaci (0.97 nymph/leaf) followed by etofenprox (1.22

nymph/leaf), thiocloprid (1.33 nymph/leaf) and thiamethoxam(1.82 nymph/ leaf) (El-Sayed,

Page 36: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

2013). The effects of different insecticides were checked against nymphs and adult whitefly.

Buprofezin was found effective against nymphs while acetamiprid, diafenthiuron and

imidacloprid were effective against the whitefly adults (Ali et al., 2005b).

Neonicotinoids have low hydrophobicity due to their excellent systemic and

translaminar movement. The systemic activity of neonicotinoids were studied in cotton,

wheat and sugar beet. These studies revealed that neonicotinoids transport in the xylem

(Westwood et al., 1998). The crop species also affects the systemic efficacy of the active

ingredient. The penetration and translocation of Imidacloprid was less obvious in cotton

leaves as compared to cabbage (Bucholz and Nauen, 2001). An experiment was conducted to

determine efficacy of four neonicotinoids viz; nitenpyram 10SL, thiacloprid 480SC,

imidacloprid 200SL, acetamaprid 20SL and four traditional insecticides at their

recommended field doses against sucking insect pests of cotton and their natural enemies at a

farmers’ field. The results showed that nitenpyram, thiacloprid and imidacloprid found safer

against natural enemies and toxic for the sucking pests as compared to conventional

insecticides when the number of insects per leaf were counted to find difference among

treatments (Ahmed et al., 2014). The efficacy of four insecticides was assessed for

controlling jassid, whitefly and thrips. Novastar 56 EC (bifenthrin + abamectin), Deltaphos

(deltamethrin + triazophos), Confidor 20 SL + Tracer and Confidor 20 SL were sprayed

twice every two weeks to ascertain the mortality of the pests on NIAB-111 variety of cotton.

The lowest populations of jassids (2.54), whiteflies (1.79) and thrips (4.16) per leaf after

application of insecticides were shown by Novastar followed by Confidor (Tayyib et al.,

2005). Seven insecticides were used against sucking insect pests of cotton. Fenpropathrin

proved as the most effective against all the insect pests followed by the imidacloprid and

acetamaprid while dimethioate significantly reduced the whitefly population followed by the

imidacloprid and acetamaprid (Shivana et al., 2011). Acetamaprid and imidacloprid gave the

significant reduction in whitefly population on all cotton cultivars during an experiment

when different pesticides and bio-control agents were used (Abbas et al., 2012).

An experiment was conducted to evaluate the efficacy of different insecticides and

biopesticides against TYLCV disease. Disease incidence was reduced by 1.7 to 3 times

depending on chemicals. Efficiency of chemical insecticides was better than botanical

pesticides against TYLCV disease (Muqit et al., 2006). In vitro efficacy of insecticide

Page 37: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

molecules on whitefly mortality and TLCV transmission revealed that adult mortality varies

with the increase in the concentration of insecticides. Among the different concentrations of

cyantraniliprole (45, 60 and 75 g.a.i/ha) tested, highest concentration 75 g.a.i/ha were found

more effective in reducing both whitefly population and TLCVD incidence. Whiteflies

remained active and caused 100% transmission of TLCV in the untreated check (Govindappa

et al., 2013). Comparative efficacy of Acetamiprid 20 SP, Imidacloprid 25% WP, Bifenthrin

10 EC, Cypermethrin 10 EC, Triazophos 40 EC, Lambda Cyhalothrin 2.5EC and Rani 20SL

against sucking insect pests (whitefly, Jassid and Thrips) of cotton was checked. Among

insecticides, Rani 20 SL and Acetamiprid 20 SP were more effective against the sucking

insect pests and in increasing seed cotton yield as compared to the other tested insecticides

(Khan, 2011).

The systemic efficacy of neonicotinoids was correlated with the method of

application. Soil application was found suitable for systemic activities of Imidacloprid while

acetamiprid performed better after foliar application (Horowitz et al., 1998). In Florida and

Israel neonicotinoids (thiomethoxam, imidacloprid, and dinotefuron) are applied as drenches

and sprays for the management of TYLCV. Neonicotinoids were used at a reduced rate in

nursery and then at recommended doses in the standing water at the time of transplanting.

The application in standing water controlled the whitefly for about 8 weeks. Insecticide

resistance can be avoided by the application of non-neonicotinoids such as soaps, oils, insect

growth regulators, and many contact insecticides until the harvesting of the tomato crop

(Elbert and Nauen, 2000). Effectiveness of imidacloprid and thiamethoxam, was evaluated

using each active ingredient separately as seed treatments and foliar applications against

thrips, jassid, whitefly and cotton aphid. Seed treatment with Imidacloprid and

Thiamethoxam found were effective against thrips up to 6 weeks from the start of seed

sowing. Imidacloprid had a better efficiency against whitefly than thiamethoxam. Foliar

treatments with imidacloprid and thiamethoxam were highly effective against aphids and

jassids as compared to whiteflies (El-Naggar and Zidan, 2013).

Imidacloprid reduces plant damage by virus infection through the interruption in

feeding of insect instead of causing rapid knockdown of sucking insects. Consequently,

neonicotinoids have substantially reduced virus infcidence in several field crops (Bethke et

al., 2001). Moreover, drenching of thiamethoxam protected the tomato plants from TYLCV

Page 38: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

infection up to twenty two days, while foliar spray was effective for eight days only. High

residual activities of neonicotenoids make them effective against virus transmission (Mason

et al., 2000). Application of imidacloprid in the early growth stages of tomato, follow the

systemic pathway in the plant and protect the crop from seedling to flowering stage by

delaying the infection in early stages (Ahmed et al., 2001; Karim et al., 2008). Imidacloprid

was used for indirectly controlling TYLCV in tomato. In three seasons, the mean incidence

of TYLCV was 42.7% in untreated plots as compared with 15.7% in treated plots. Disease

incidence in imidacloprid treated plots was reduced from 17% to 2.2%. Higher yields were

recorded from treated plots and the yields decreased with decrease in the rate of insecticide

application (Ahmed et al., 2001).

Seed treatment with imidacloprid reduces the insect feeding and provides indirect

protection against disease transmission in different crops (Gourmet et al., 1994). In

Bangladesh, foliar spray as well as seed treatment of BARI hybrid tomatoes with

imidacloprid significantly reduced the TYLCVD incidence and increase the yield (Karim and

Rehman, 2012). The effect of Admire (Imidacloprid 0.1%) and Cymbush (Cypermethrin

0.1%) was checked on the growth and yield of tomato plants due to TYLCV infection under

natural field conditions. The Admire exhibited better results as compared to Cymbush. The

TYLCV disease incidence and percent reduction in fruit yield was significantly and

positively correlated with one another (Aktar et al., 2008).

2.10.2. Management through nutrients and systemic acquired resistance

Plant health plays an important role in the pest management (Altieri and Nicholls,

2003). Nutrient management improves plant health, which enables the plant to tolerate the

incidence and herbivory of sucking as well as of chewing insect-pests. Therefore, the effect

of various nutrients (N, P, K, Zn, B), on infestation of whitefly was investigated. The

nutrients significantly reduced the population of whitefly in treated plots as compared to

control (Gogi et al., 2012). The application of micro and macro-nutrients to crop plants may

affect the relationship between plants and insects (Abro et al., 2004) as nutrient deficient

plants are weak and susceptible to disease incidence and insect pest attack (Marschner, 1995;

Thompson and Huber, 2007). Micronutrients take part in all the metabolic and cellular

functions of the cell. Plants have different requirements for micronutrients e.g. boron (B),

chlorine (Cl), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), molybdenum (Mo), nickel (Ni) and

Page 39: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

zinc (Zn). Some of these elements are redox-active act as cofactors in enzymes, others

activate the enzymes and accomplish a structural role in stabilizing proteins (Hansch and

Mendel, 2009). Viruses alter the physiology of plants by affecting the growth and

development and interacting with defense mechanism. The concentration of reactive oxygen

species (ROS) and free radicals increases upto two fold due to the viral attack in Zn deficient

cells causing significant damage to the plants. Zinc improves the defense system of plant

cells against ROS by interfering with membrane-bound NADPH oxidase that produces ROS

and protects membrane lipids, proteins, chlorophyll, enzymes and DNA of the cell from

oxidation (Cakmak, 2000).

The role of different nutrients, such as nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K),

Mn, Zn, B, Cl and silicon (Si) in disease management was described (Dordas, 2008). Plants

with high N supplies reduced the infection severity caused by facultative parasites. Potassium

decreased the susceptibility of host plants. Mn was found effective as it has vital role in

photosynthesis, lignin and phenol biosynthesis. Boron reduced the severity of many diseases

as well as susceptibility of plants because it affects structure of cell wall, plant membranes

and metabolism of phenolics or lignin (Brown et al., 2002). Boron binds the apoplastic

proteins to cis-hydroxyl groups of cell wall and membranes for the interruption of

manganese-dependent enzymatic responses and affecting the metabolic pathways of plants

(Blevins and Leukaszewski, 1998). In B deficient cells oxidative burst, cell death, H2O2

production and phenolic leakage increased indicating loss of membrane integrity (Dordas and

Brown, 2005).

Plant defense responses are regulated by a complex network of signal molecules and

growth regulators. Resistance genes identifies the pathogen specifically and start defense

responses. Salicylic acid (SA), jasmonic acid (JA), naphthalene acetic acid (NAA) and

ethylene (ET) mediated appearance of both specific as well as basal defense responses (Jalali

et al., 2006). Dipotassium hydrogen phosphate (K2HPO4), potassium dihydrogen phosphate

(KH2PO4) and salicylic acid at 2 and 3% concentrations were drenched in pots kept under

screen house and as foliar applications under field conditions on different cotton varieties. B.

tabaci collected from virus infected plants were released on the plants placed in wooden

cages. Salicylic acid at 3% concentration indicated best results in reducing egg hatching

Page 40: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

ability, adult emergence, adult B. tabaci population and CLCuVD severity followed by

KH2PO4 and K2HPO4 (Khan et al., 2003).

Salicylic acid (SA) was an efficient inducer of resistance against tobamoviruses in

tomato and bell pepper. The seedlings were sprayed with salicylic acid (50 mM) and the

severity of viral diseases was assessed by number of local lesions. The results showed that

the seedling treatment with SA minimized the number of local lesions when compared with

untreated ones (Madhusudhan et al., 2005). Tobacco mosaic virus (TMV) RNA and coat

protein levels were reduced in susceptible tobacco tissues by treating with SA because it

inhibits the replication of TMV. Salicylhydroxamic acid (SHAM) which inhibits the

alternative oxidase of mitochondria, antagonized the SA induced resistance against TMV

both in susceptible and resistant tobacco plants (Chivasa et al., 1997). SA induced the

resistance against Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV) in tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum) by

inhibiting the systemic movement of the virus from cell to cell and induced by a signal

transduction pathway (Mayers et al., 2005).

2.10.3. Management through plant extracts

Chemical control methods remained the major approach for the management of insect

infestations, but this approach has become less effective because the insect populations

develop resistance against insecticides (Siebert et al., 2012). Apart from this, B. tabaci

adults, eggs and nymphs are found on the lower side of leaves where these remain safe from

insecticide application on upper leaf surfaces. Hence, chemical control of whiteflies is costly

and not effective always because of whiteflies treated with chemical pesticides develop

resistance against these pesticides (Palumbo et al., 2001). Therefore, the pesticides produced

from natural products are helpful in reducing the problems such as insecticide resistance and

environmental hazards caused by synthetic compounds (Abou-Yousef et al., 2010). The

efficacy of neem based pesticides azadirachtin, neema (liquid type) and neema-plus (pellet

type) were checked against the mortality rate and developmental inhibition of the B. tabaci.

Azadirachtin reduced the rates of female oviposition, egg hatching and adult exclusion to

23.1, 53.2 and 26.6% respectively. Foliar spray of neema reduced the rates of adult

colonization, oviposition and egg hatch up to 78.2, 47.0 and 71.2% respectively while soil

treatment with neema-plus reduced up to 31.3, 34.1 and 66.8%, respectively (Lynn et al.,

2010). The insecticidal activity of neem extracts is due to the components that are capable of

Page 41: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

influencing the physiology and behaviour of a wide range of insects (Schaaf et al., 2000).

Major biologically active components of A. indica extract are azadirachtin, triterpenoids and

essential oils etc. These components suppress the insects’ desire for food as well as destroy

eggs and immature insects (Siddiqui et al., 2000). The azadirachtin being the main ingredient

of the neem extract disturbs the functioning of corpus cardiacum and molting hormone. This

compound is also used as an insect growth regulator which suppresses egg laying, molting,

pupation and adult formation of the whitefly (Ascher, 1993).

The eggs and nymphs of B. tabaci were managed by aqueous and ethanolic extracts

of Acalypha gaumeri, Annona squamosa, Carlowrightia myriantha, Petiveria alliaceae,

Trichilia arborea and Azadirachta indica. Results suggest that ethanolic extracts of P.

alliaceae and T. arborea leaves showed the highest insecticidal effects on eggs and nymphs

of B. tabaci followed by the extracts of A. indica (Cruz-Estrada et al., 2013). By using plant

derived oil, a reduction of 62-75% was observed in B. tabaci population (Butler et al., 1991)

while Butler and Henneberry (1992) suggested that the immature and adults of whitefly

could be killed or repelled by one or two applications of plant oils (cotton seed and soybean

oils) at the concentration of 1-2% without any phytotoxicity. Neem oil and neem seed water

extract at different levels of concentration were applied against some sucking insect pests.

Neem oil at 2% and neem seed water extract at 3% significantly reduced the population of

whitefly, jassids and thrips on cotton up to 168 hours after spray but lost their efficacy up to

336 hours after spray. Reduction in the test insects population 24 hours after spray at 1.5 %

and 2% neem oil and 3% neem seed water extract increased 168 hours after spray which may

be the cause of anti-feedant and deterrent effect of neem that had forced the test insects to

leave the locality or chronic effect of the neem compounds (Khattak et al., 2006).

Melia dubia and neem products were evaluated against pests of tomato. Melia seed

kernel extract (MSKE) and neem seed kernel extract (NSKE) at 5% concentration reduced

60.19 and 69.37% B. tabaci, respectively (Senguttuvan et al., 2005). Bioassays with aqueous

extracts of Melia azedarach L. (chinaberry) leaves and fruits were conducted against 3rd and

4th instar nymphs of B. tabaci on tomato crop. Results indicated that all Melia extracts caused

significant mortality of whitefly than the controls. Extracts along with the surfactant were

significantly more toxic than those sprayed alone (Jazzar and Hammad, 2003). The toxic

effects of Nicotiana tobacum and Eucalyptus globulus extracts were examined against

Page 42: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

second instar larvae of Lycoriella auripila, by agar dilution technique. Plant extracts were

applied at seven concentrations against second instar larvae and their mortality were assessed

after 24, 48 and 72 hours. N. tabacum and E. globulus extracts resulted in 77.55 and 72.5%

mortality of larvae at 4000 ppm concentration after 72 hours, respectively (Farsani et al.,

2011). The effect of neem oil, garlic, eucalyptus and datura extracts on the population of

jassid, whitefly and thrips were tested in Bt cotton under field conditions. All the plant

products showed varying toxicity against sucking complex of Bt cotton 24, 72, 168 and 240

hours after application. Datura proved to be the most effective bringing about significant

reduction in the pest population followed by neem oil. Garlic and eucalyptus also produced

significant results as compared to untreated check (Khan et al., 2013).

As the TYLCV is transmitted by B. tabaci, extracts of mehogoni (Swietenia

macrophylla) seeds, garlic (Allium sativum) bulbs, karamja (Pongamia pinnata) leaves and

neem (A. indica) fruits, were used against TYLCVD incidence. Disease incidence was high

in control as compared to treated plants (Bhyan et al., 2007). Efficacy of six plant products

was evaluated in the field for the management of TLCVD and B. tabaci. Spraying with neem

seed kernel extracts and leaf extract of Pinus, Thuja, Araucaria, Cupressus and Cycas proved

effective in reducing the disease incidence, whitefly population and also in increasing the

yield (Ansari et al., 2007). Plant extracts of Mirabilis jalapa, Charthamus roseus, Dathura

melta, Bougainvillea spectabilis, Boerhaavia diffusa and A. indica reduced maximum

incidence of urdbean leaf crinkle virus (Reddy et al., 2006). The extracts of A. indica,

Calotropics procera, Eucalyptus globules L., Allium sativum L., Datura stramonium L., and

Aloe barbadensis Mill. were evaluated against B. tabaci and cotton leaf curl virus disease

(CLCuVD) under field conditions. A. indica and E. globules extracts controlled the B. tabaci

as well as CLCuVD most effectively (Ali et al., 2010).

Page 43: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

CHAPTER 3 MATERIALS AND METHODS

3.1. Screening of tomato germplasm against tomato leaf curl virus disease (TLCVD)

and whitefly Bemisia tabaci

To evaluate tomato germplasm against TLCVD and B. tabaci, an experiment was

established during two years (2012 and 2013) in the Research Area of Department of Plant

Pathology, University of Agriculture Faisalabad. Twenty seven varieties/lines (Roker, Big

Beef, 09079, Uovo Roseo, Naqeeb, Caldera, Sitara-TS-101, Pakit, Riogrande, Nuyt-9-11,

Nagina, Lyp#1, Nuyt-25-11, Carmen, BL-1176-Riostone-1-1, Libnan Arif, Nuyt -04-11,

Salma, Po-02, 09088, 09080, 10127, 10113, 09091, 10125, 014276 and Roma) were obtained

from Ayub Agricultural Research Institute (AARI) Faisalabad. Row to row and plant to plant

distance of 70cm and 30cm was maintained, respectively. The experiment was conducted in

augmented design. To ensure the presence of virus source in the field, a row of spreader

(Fanto) was sown after every three rows of varieties/lines to be tested for resistance. All the

recommended agronomic practices were followed to keep the tomato crop in good condition.

However, no insecticide was used in order to develop maximum whitefly population and

disease pressure. Disease incidence of TLCV infected plants on each variety/line was

recorded on weekly basis according to the following formula:

No. of infected plants

Disease incidence = -------------------------------------- x 100

Total No. of plants

The resistance or susceptibility status of the screened varieties/lines against disease was

determined by using modified Ssekyewa, 2006 scale. This helped to determine susceptible

and tolerant varieties/lines for model development and plant disease management,

respectively.

Page 44: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Table 3.1. Disease rating scale

Grades Disease incidence (%) Level of

resistance/susceptibility

0 All plant free of virus symptoms HR

1 1-20% R

2 21-40% MR

3 41-60% MS

4 61-80% S

5 81-100% HS

HR= Highly Resistant, R= Resistant, MR= Moderately Resistant, MS= Moderately

Susceptible, S= Susceptible and HS= Highly Susceptible

3.2. Biological assays

Two types of pathogenicity tests (whitefly transmission and graft inoculation) were

performed for the confirmation of viral infection in tomato plants.

3.2.1. Through whitefly

Ten plants of highly susceptible variety were grown in pots and kept in insect free

cage. These plants were inoculated through whitefly transmission technique (Lapidot et al.,

2001). Twenty whiteflies were introduced into the cage containing TLCVD infected tomato

plants and given an acquisition access period of two days. Impregnated whitefly was

collected from the muslin cage and transferred to the healthy plants at second leaf stage for a

period of two days. Later on, these plants were sprayed with insecticide (imidacloprid) to kill

the whitefly. The symptoms were recorded after four weeks by visual observations.

3.2.2. Through grafting

TLCV infected plants were collected from the field for grafting on to healthy plants in

the pots. Plants were selected as soon as top leaves showed the TLCVD symptoms. A

slanting cut of 2cm long and 0.2cm deep was made on the stem of infected plant. Wedge

grafting was performed as suggested by Kashina et al., (2007). The grafted portion was

Page 45: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

wrapped tightly with parafilm and covered with polyethylene bags. Non-grafted plants were

kept as control.

3.3. Serological assay

The infected samples were collected from the field for the confirmation of TLCV by

double antibody sandwich (DAS-ELISA) as described by (Clark and Adams, 1977). Bioreba

(www.bioreba.com) polyclonal antibodies were used for ELISA test.

3.3.1. Buffer formulations

1. Carbonate coating buffer/Liter:

Sodium carbonate (anhydrous) 1.59 g

Sodium biocarbonate 2.93 g

Sodium azide 0.20 g

pH 9.6 and stored at 4°C

2. PBST buffer (Wash buffer)/Liter:

Sodium chloride 8.00 g

Sodium phosphate (dibasic) 1.15 g

Potassium phosphate (monobasic) 0.20 g

Potassium chloride 0.20 g

Tween-20 20.0 ml

pH 7.4 and stored at 4°C

3. Extraction buffer/Liter:

Extraction buffer was prepared by dissolving following chemicals to PBST.

Sodium sulfite (anhydrous) 1.30 g

Polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) 20.0 g

Sodium azide 2.00 g

Egg (chicken) albumin 2.00 g

Tween-20 20.0 g

pH 7.4 and stored at 4°C

4. Conjugate buffer:

Alkaline phosphatase labeled antibodies were added to extraction buffer at a dilution of

1:1000.

Page 46: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Bovine serum albumin (BSA) 2.00 g

Polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) 20.0 g

Sodium azide 0.20 g

pH 7.4 and stored at 4°C

5. PNP or Substrate buffer:

Magnesium chloride hexahydrate 0.10 g

Sodium azide 0.20 g

Dithanolamine 97.0 ml

Distilled water 800 ml

Volume was adjusted to one liter and pH 9.8 with HCl. It was prepared just 5 minutes before

use and p-nitrophenyl phosphate was dissolved @1mg/1ml.

3.3.2. DAS-ELISA procedure

Microtiter plates were coated with TLCV specific antibody diluted 1000 fold in

coating buffer.

ELISA plates were incubated at 30°C for 4 hours.

ELISA plates were washed thrice with washing buffer.

Freshly prepared antigen (1:10 w/v) in extraction buffer was loaded (100μl/well) and

the plates were incubated overnight at 4ºC followed by washing.

Reference blank, negative and positive controls were also included.

TLCV conjugated antibody diluted 1000 fold in conjugate, added 100μl/well and

incubated at 30°C for 5 hours followed by washing.

Substrate (p-nitrophenyl-phosphate) was added 100 μl/well @ 1mg/ml and incubated

at room temperature for an hour at least.

The reaction strength was rated visually as

= no reaction

+ = weak reaction

++ = definite reaction,

+++ = strong reaction

++++ = very strong reaction

Page 47: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

3.3.3. Color development

Development of yellow color in the wells indicated the presence of TLCV and the

intensity was proportional to the concentration of virus in the plant. Therefore, the positive

and negative samples were sorted out by visual observation of yellow color. Reaction was

stopped by the addition of 50μl 1N NaOH solution and the plate was photographed.

Fig. 3.1. ELISA results darker color indicating highly susceptible varieties/lines. Clear wells

indicating negative control

3.4. Area under disease progress curve

Area under disease progressive curve (AUDPC) was calculated by the trapezoidal

integration of the disease incidence over time for each variety/advance line, considering the

whole period evaluated according to the following formula as described by Shaner and

Finney (1977):

n-1

Page 48: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

AUDPC = Σ [(xi+xi+1)/2] (ti+1-ti)

i=1

Where n is the number of assessment; x, disease incidence (%); and (ti+1-ti), duration

between two consecutive assessments. The TLCVD incidence over weekly basis was

recorded for each variety/advance line during the experiment (2012 and 2013) and the

resistance/susceptibility level of each variety/line was determined according to the AUDPC

units as for resistant (200-725), moderately resistant (725-1300), moderately susceptible

(1300-1920), susceptible (1920-2675) and highly susceptible varieties/lines (2675-3350),

respectively.

3.5. Recording of whitefly population data from disease screening nursery

Whitefly population data was recorded from disease screening nursery by randomly

selecting three diseased plants from each variety/line. The insect population from upper,

middle and lower leaves of the plants was estimated and average was calculated on weekly

basis. For the identification of B. tabaci, pseudo pupae were examined under microscope and

pairs of setae and transverse molting suture was examined (Bellows et al., 1994).

3.6. Collection of environmental conditions data

Data of environmental conditions comprising maximum and minimum temperatures,

relative humidity, average rainfall and wind speed was collected from (www.uaf.edu.pk)

recorded by Meteorological Station, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, situated adjacent

(50 meters) to research area of Plant Pathology Department on daily basis from March to

June during the year 2012 and 2013 and weekly averages were calculated.

3.7. Development of predictive model for TLCVD incidence and B. tabaci population

3.7.1. Establishment of experiment and data recording

In order to develop TLCVD incidence and B. tabaci population predictive models,

five susceptible and highly susceptible varieties/lines (Big Beef, Caldera, Sitara-TS-101,

014276 and Salma) were sown in randomized complete block design (RCBD) with three

replications in research area of Plant Pathology Department University of Agriculture,

Faisalabad during two years (2012 and 2013). Each variety/line was planted in a block of

15m length and row to row and plant to plant distance was maintained 70 cm and 30 cm,

respectively. The data of disease incidence and vector population were recorded on weekly

basis in five varieties/lines during 2012 and 2013.

Page 49: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

3.7.2. Analysis of data

The data were analyzed using statistical analysis software SAS 9.3 (SAS institute,

1990). Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and comparison between disease incidence and

environmental conditions were determined by least significance difference test (LSD at

P<0.05). Effects of environmental variables (maximum and minimum temperatures, relative

humidity, rainfall and wind speed) on disease incidence were determined by correlation

analysis (Steel et al., 1997). Environmental factors having significant correlation with

disease incidence and whitefly population was subjected to regression analysis. Predictive

model for TLCVD incidence and B. tabaci population based on two years (2012 and 2013)

environmental variables was developed using stepwise regression analysis (Myers, 1990).

Environmental conditions exhibiting significant correlation with disease incidence and

vector population were graphically plotted and their critical ranges conducive for TLCVD

incidence and B. tabaci population were determined. The accuracy of developed models was

studied by the influence of environmental conditions on TLCVD incidence and B. tabaci

population on five varieties/lines (Big Beef, Caldera, Sitara-TS-101, 014276 and Salma) by

comparing the observed disease incidence and vector population with those values predicted

by multiple regression models.

3.7.3. Evaluation of model

After the development of the model through stepwise regression, the model was

evaluated according to the procedures described by Snee (1977); Chattefuee and Hadi

(2006).

1) Comparison of dependent variable and regression coefficients with physical theory

2) Comparison of observed vs. predicted data

3) Collection of new data to check predictions

Assessment of predictions was done by computing statistic indices like; root mean

square error (RMSE) and % error (Wallach and Goffinet, 1989). The formulas used for

RMSE and % error were:

RMSE = ∑ in= 1 = [(Oi - Pi)2÷n]0.5

Observed value – Predicted value

Page 50: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

% Error = x 100

Observed value

Where Pi and Oi are the predicted and observed data points for studied parameters,

respectively, and n is the number of observations. Model performance is considered good if

the values of RMSE and % error are below or equal to ± 20 (Willmott, 1982).

3.8. Management of TLCVD and B. tabaci

3.8.1. Evaluation of insecticides, nutrients and plant extracts against TLCVD and B.

tabaci

Five varieties Carmen, Roker, Uovo Roseo, Po-02 and Lyp#1 were sown in the

management experiment. The trial was conducted in randomized complete block design

(RCBD) with three replications. Seven treatments including one untreated control was used

for each entry in every replication.

For management of TLCVD and B. tabaci, insecticides (Imidacloprid and

Acetamaprid), plant extracts (Neem and Eucalyptus) and nutrients consisting of (Zn & B

solution) and salicylic acid (0.02%) were applied randomly to each row of experimental plot.

The detailed description of the above mentioned treatments is follows (Table. 3.2 and 3.3). In

order to make the required concentrations 3ml of insecticides and 5 ml of nutrients were

measured and dissolved in 1000 ml water.

3.8.2. Preparation of plant extracts

For the preparation of aqueous extracts, fresh leaves and bulbs from above mentioned

healthy plants were collected and macerated with distilled water at Kg/L and then thoroughly

homogenized. The macerated extracts were passed through two folds of muslin cloth and

diluted up to ten times and stored at 4°C until use. To prepare the required concentration, 5ml

of each plant extract were measured and dissolved in 100ml of water. A knapsack sprayer

was used to apply these solutions. The spray was applied until leaf run-off and control plants

were not sprayed with any insecticide/chemical (Ashfaq et al., 2006).

Page 51: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Table. 3.2. Treatments used against TLCVD and B. tabaci

Common Name Active Ingredient Recommended

dose

Manufacturer

Acelan Acetamaprid 125ml/acre FMC

Amedaclopard Imidacloprid 250ml/acre FMC

Classic Zn and Boron

solution

500ml/acre Ali Akbar

Table. 3.3. Plant extracts used against TLCVD and B. tabaci

Common

name

Botanical name Family Parts used Recommended dose

Neem Azadirachta indica

A. Juss.

Meliaceae Leaves 5ml/liter

Sufaida Eucalyptus globulus

Labill.

Myrtaceae Leaves 5ml/liter

3.8.3. Data analysis

Data for the evaluation of above mentioned treatments on TLCVD incidence and B.

tabaci population was recorded before and after the application of treatments and analyzed

through statistix 8.1 software, all possible interactions and comparisons of treatments were

determined through ANOVA. All the treatments were compared with one another and with

control by least significant difference (LSD) test at P= 0.05 (Steel et al., 1997).

Page 52: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

CHAPTER 4 RESULTS

4.1. Symptomology and disease development during two years (2012 and 2013)

Tomato leaf curl virus disease symptoms appeared on all the varieties/lines. The

earliest symptoms were observed on a highly susceptible variety Salma followed by the line

014276. The symptoms started by upward and downward curling of leaves in infected plants

(Fig. 4.1). Infected plants remained stunted (Fig. 4.2) and became yellowish in color with

less fruit formation. The disease was present throughout the tomato growing season with

maximum in the months of high temperature, low rainfall and low relative humidity.

Minimum disease symptoms were observed on variety Naqeeb during both years (2012 and

2013).

Page 53: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Fig.4.1. Upward curling and yellowing of leaves due to natural infection of TLCVD on Pakit variety

four weeks after sowing

Page 54: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Fig. 4.2. Tomato plant with stunting and cupping symptoms caused by natural infection of

TLCVD on Nagina variety three weeks after sowing

4.1.1. Screening of tomato germplasm against tomato leaf curl virus disease (TLCVD)

during 2012 under natural environmental conditions

Twenty seven varieties/lines were sown for the screening purpose under natural

infestation of whitefly. Maximum disease incidence (95.29%) was recorded on variety

Salma, followed by 86.15% on advance line 014276 and 82.71% on Sitara-TS-101. These

varieties/lines were highly susceptible with disease rating 5 and AUDPC in the range of

2912.35-3352.65 (Table. 4.1). The advance line 10125 exhibited susceptible response with

74.09% disease incidence, followed by line 10127 (71.64%), Libnan Arif (69.16%), BL-1-

176-Riostone-1-1 (67.39%), Big Beef (64.87%) and Caldera (63.38%) during the year 2012

(Table. 4.23). These susceptible varieties/lines were graded as 4 in the disease rating scale

with AUDPC in the range of 2287.95-2610.65. The disease incidence was minimum on

Naqeeb (6.26%), followed by Pakit (8.34%), Nagina (10.81%), Riogrande (13.76%), 09080

(15.31%), Roma (17.85%), 09091 (19.67%) and Nuyt-04-11 (18.83%) during the year 2012.

These varieties/advanced lines were graded as resistant with disease rating 1 and AUDPC in

the range 236.6-705.95. Moderately resistant varieties/lines (Carmen, Roker, Lyp#1, 09079,

Nuyt-25-11 and 09088) showed disease incidence 22.45%, 24.67%, 27.53%, 29.42%,

Page 55: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

32.12% and 35.27% respectively with disease rating 2 and AUDPC in the range 803.25-

1251.95. Uovo Roseo, Nuyt-9-11, Po-02 and 10113 were categorized as moderately

susceptible by showing 43.24%, 47.15%, 50.73% and 53.48% TLCVD incidence,

respectively with disease rating 3 and AUDPC in the range 1530.9-1889.3.

Table 4.1. Resistance level of tomato germplasm against TLCVD under natural

conditions during the year 2012

Serial No. Varieties/lines

Disease

incidence

(%)

Ratings AUDPC Response

1 Roker 24.67 2 880.95 MR*

2 Big Beef 64.87 4 2287.95 S

3 09079 29.42 2 1062.95 MR

4 Uovo Roseo 43.24 3 1530.93 MS

5 Naqeeb 6.26 1 236.61 R

6 Roma 17.85 1 642.25 R

7 Caldera 63.38 4 2235.84 S

8 Sitara-TS-101 82.71 5 2912.35 HS

9 Pakit 8.34 1 309.43 R

10 Riogrande 13.76 1 499.12 R

11 Nuyt-9-11 47.15 3 1667.75 MS

12 Nagina 10.81 1 395.85 R

13 Lyp#1 27.53 2 981.05 MR

14 Nuyt-25-11 32.12 2 1141.73 MR

15 Carmen 22.45 2 803.25 MR

16 BL-1176-Riostone-1-1 67.39 4 2376.15 S

17 Libnan Arif 69.16 4 2438.12 S

18 Nuyt -04-11 18.83 1 676.55 R

19 Salma 95.29 5 3352.65 HS

20 Po-02 50.73 3 1793.05 MS

21 09088 35.27 2 1251.95 MR

22 09080 15.31 1 553.35 R

23 10127 71.64 4 2524.92 S

24 10113 53.48 3 1889.34 MS

25 09091 19.67 1 705.95 R

26 10125 74.09 4 2610.65 S

27 014276 86.15 5 3032.75 HS

*R= Resistant, MR= Moderately Resistant, MS= Moderately Susceptible, S= Susceptible and

HS= Highly Susceptible

Page 56: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Fig. 4.3. Comparison of disease incidence (%) on 27 varieties/lines during 2012

4.1.2. Screening of tomato germplasm against TLCVD during 2013 under natural

environmental conditions

Tomato varieties/lines exhibited similar response against TLCVD during the year

2013. None of the screened varieties/lines was found to be highly resistant against TLCVD.

All the varieties/lines were categorized in the same disease ratings as in the year 2012 with

more or less TLCVD incidence percentage (Table. 4.2). During the year 2013, all the

varieties/lines showed different response regarding the area under disease progress curve

(AUDPC) which ranged from 207.2-649.6, 844.9-1290.1, 1575.7-1912.4, 2202.9-2653.35

and 2935.45-3332.7 for the resistant, moderately resistant, moderately susceptible,

susceptible and highly susceptible varieties/lines, respectively.

Uovo Roseo

Sitara-TS-101

Salma

Rom

a

Roker

Riogran

de

Po-02

Pakit

Nuy

t -04-11

Nuyt-9-11

Nuyt-25-11

Naqee

b

Nagina

Lyp#

1

Libnan Arif

Carmen

Caldera

BL-1176-Riostone-1-1

Big Bee

f

9091

9088

9080

9079

1427

6

1012

7

10125

10113

100

80

60

40

20

0

Varieties

Dis

ea

se

in

cid

en

ce

(%

)

44.52

83.37

94.72

16.58

25.16

12.57

51.58

7.43

18.35

46.23

31.25

5.4210.98

28.31

68.53

23.64

62.4466.48

63.28

18.06

36.36

14.79

28.24

88.06

72.0575.31

54.14

Page 57: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Table 4.2. Resistance level of tomato varieties/lines to TLCVD under natural conditions

during the year 2013

Serial No. Varieties/lines

Disease

incidence (%)

Ratings AUDPC Response

1 Roker 25.16 2 898.14 MR*

2 Big Beef 63.28 4 2232.36 S

3 09079 28.24 2 1005.92 MR

4 Uovo Roseo 44.52 3 1575.73 MS

5 Naqeeb 5.42 1 207.22 R

6 Roma 16.58 1 597.81 R

7 Caldera 62.44 4 2202.93 S

8 Sitara-TS-101 83.37 5 2935.45 HS

9 Pakit 7.43 1 277.55 R

10 Riogrande 12.57 1 457.45 R

11 Nuyt-9-11 46.23 3 1635.55 MS

12 Nagina 10.98 1 401.87 R

13 Lyp#1 28.31 2 1008.35 MR

14 Nuyt-25-11 31.25 2 1111.25 MR

15 Carmen 23.64 2 844.94 MR

16 BL-1176-Riostone-1-1 66.48 4 2344.32 S

17 Libnan Arif 68.53 4 2416.05 S

18 Nuyt -04-11 18.35 1 659.75 R

19 Salma 94.72 5 3332.74 HS

20 Po-02 51.58 3 1822.83 MS

21 09088 36.36 2 1290.12 MR

22 09080 14.79 1 535.15 R

23 10127 72.05 4 2539.25 S

24 10113 54.14 3 1912.42 MS

25 09091 18.06 1 649.64 R

26 10125 75.31 4 2653.35 S

27 014276 88.06 5 3099.63 HS

*R= Resistant, MR= Moderately Resistant, MS= Moderately Susceptible, S= Susceptible and

HS= Highly Susceptible

Page 58: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Fig. 4.4. Comparison of disease incidence (%) on 27 varieties/lines during 2013

4.2. Screening of tomato germplasm against Bemisia tabaci population during two years

(2012 and 2013) under natural conditions

B. tabaci infested tomato crop during the whole growing seasons of 2012 and 2013.

The peak activity of B. tabaci was observed on warm and sunny days with high temperature

and low relative humidity. The duration of B. tabaci developmental stages depend upon the

prevailing temperature. Whitefly population was minimum during the months of July and

August because of high rainfall and relative humidity. Whitefly attacked the plants and

transmitted TLCV and secreted honey dew that resulted in the development of sooty mold

and stunted growth. Maximum whitefly population (8.23 and 8.18) was found on variety

Salma during two years 2012 and 2013, respectively (Table. 4.3 and 4.4)). Minimum

whitefly population (2.17 and 2.14) was found on resistant variety Naqeeb during 2012 and

2013, respectively.

Uovo

Ros

eo

Sita

ra-T

S-10

1

Salm

a

Roma

Roke

r

Riog

rand

e

Po-0

2Pa

kit

Nuy t

-04-

11

Nuyt

-9-1

1

Nuyt

-25-

11

Naqe

eb

Nagin

a

Lyp#

1

Libna

n Ar

if

Carm

en

Calder

a

BL-1

176-

Rios

tone

-1-1

Big Be

ef

9091

9088

9080

9079

1427

6

1012

7

1012

5

1011

3

100

80

60

40

20

0

Varieties

Dis

ea

se

in

cid

en

ce

(%

)

43.24

82.71

95.29

17.85

24.67

13.76

50.73

8.34

18.83

47.15

32.12

6.2610.81

27.53

69.16

22.45

63.3867.39

64.87

19.67

35.27

15.31

29.42

86.15

71.6474.09

53.48

Page 59: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Table 4.3. Resistance level of tomato germplasm against B. tabaci population during

2012

Serial

No. Varieties/lines Average whitefly population Resistance level

1 Roker 3.51 MR

2 Big Beef 5.36 S

3 09079 3.82 MR

4 Uovo Roseo 4.09 MS

5 Naqeeb 2.17 R

6 Roma 3.05 R

7 Caldera 5.24 S

8 Sitara-TS-101 7.56 HS

9 Pakit 2.42 R

10 Riogrande 2.75 R

11 Nuyt-9-11 4.63 MS

12 Nagina 2.67 R

13 Lyp#1 3.62 MR

14 Nuyt-25-11 3.95 MR

15 Carmen 3.37 MR

16 BL-1176-Riostone-1-1 5.58 S

17 Libnan Arif 5.79 S

18 Nuyt -04-11 3.21 R

19 Salma 8.23 HS

20 Po-02 4.81 MS

21 09088 4.02 MR

22 09080 2.98 R

23 10127 6.34 S

24 10113 5.17 MS

25 09091 3.35 R

26 10125 6.67 S

27 014276 7.22 HS

R= Resistant, MR= Moderately Resistant, MS= Moderately Susceptible, S= Susceptible and

HS= Highly Susceptible

Page 60: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Fig. 4.5. Comparison of whitefly infestation on 27 tomato varieties/lines during 2012

Fig. 4.6. Comparison of whitefly infestation on 27 tomato varieties/lines during 2013

Uovo

Rose

o

Sita

ra-T

S-10

1

Salm

a

Roma

Roke

r

Riog

rand

e

Po-02

Pakit

Nuyt -

04-1

1

Nuyt

-9-11

Nuyt -2

5-11

Naqee

b

Nagina

Lyp#

1

Libna

n Arif

Carm

en

Calder

a

BL-1

176-Rio

ston

e-1-

1

Big B

eef

9091

9088

9080

9079

1427

6

1012

7

1012

5

1011

3

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Varieties/lines

Av

era

ge

wh

ite

fly

po

pu

lati

on

4.09

7.56

8.23

3.053.51

2.75

4.81

2.42

3.21

4.63

3.95

2.172.67

3.62

5.79

3.37

5.245.58

5.36

3.35

4.02

2.98

3.82

7.22

6.346.67

5.17

Uovo

Rose

o

Sita

ra-T

S-10

1

Salm

a

Roma

Roke

r

Riog

rand

e

Po-02

Pakit

Nuyt -

04-1

1

Nuyt

-9-11

Nuyt -2

5-11

Naqee

b

Nagina

Lyp#

1

Libna

n Arif

Carm

en

Calder

a

BL-1

176-Rio

ston

e-1-

1

Big B

eef

9091

9088

9080

9079

1427

6

1012

7

1012

5

1011

3

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Varieties/lines

Av

era

ge

wh

ite

fly

po

pu

lati

on

4.16

7.62

8.18

3.02

3.64

2.69

4.89

2.34

3.19

4.56

3.91

2.142.63

3.65

5.71

3.46

5.185.52

5.24

3.45

4.07

2.87

3.68

7.47

6.386.75

5.23

Page 61: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Table 4.4. Resistance level of tomato germplasm against B. tabaci population during

2013

Serial No. Varieties/lines Average whitefly population Resistance level

1 Roker 3.64 MR

2 Big Beef 5.24 S

3 09079 3.68 MR

4 Uovo Roseo 4.16 MS

5 Naqeeb 2.14 R

6 Roma 3.02 R

7 Caldera 5.18 S

8 Sitara-TS-101 7.62 HS

9 Pakit 2.34 R

10 Riogrande 2.69 R

11 Nuyt-9-11 4.56 MS

12 Nagina 2.63 R

13 Lyp#1 3.65 MR

14 Nuyt-25-11 3.91 MR

15 Carmen 3.46 MR

16 BL-1176-Riostone-1-1 5.52 S

17 Libnan Arif 5.71 S

18 Nuyt -04-11 3.19 R

19 Salma 8.18 HS

20 Po-02 4.89 MS

21 09088 4.07 MR

22 09080 2.87 R

23 10127 6.38 S

24 10113 5.23 MS

25 09091 3.45 R

26 10125 6.75 S

27 014276 7.47 HS

R= Resistant, MR= Moderately Resistant, MS= Moderately Susceptible, S= Susceptible and

HS= Highly Susceptible

Page 62: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

4.3. Confirmation of TLCV through ELISA and grafting

Double antibody sandwich (DAS) ELISA was performed to confirm the presence of

TLCV in infected plants. ELISA results were analyzed visually on the basis of colorimetric

change. ELISA results had a strong positive relationship with disease incidence of different

varieties/lines. Antigen from resistant and moderately resistant varieties/lines showed very

week reaction with antibodies (+) (Table 4.5). The ELISA results of moderately susceptible,

susceptible and highly susceptible varieties/lines were moderate (++), strong (+++) and very

strong reaction (++++), respectively.

TLCV was also confirmed through graft inoculation in all the varieties/lines. The

results of graft transmission were in confirmation with disease incidence response of

different varieties/lines. Resistant varieties/lines showed 0-20% transmission through

grafting (Table 4.5). The transmission success in case of moderately resistant, moderately

susceptible, susceptible and highly susceptible varieties/lines was (20-40%), (40-60%), (60-

80%) and (80-100%), respectively.

4.4. Correlation of environmental factors with TLCVD incidence on tomato

varieties/lines during 2012 and 2013

In general, the contribution of three environmental variables i.e. temperature

(maximum and minimum) and relative humidity was significant as compared to rainfall and

wind speed in TLCVD development (Table. 4.6). Maximum and minimum temperature had

significantly positive correlation with TLCVD incidence on all varieties/lines (Roker, Big

Beef, 09079, Uovo Roseo, Naqeeb, Roma, Caldera, Sitara-TS-101, Pakit, Riogrande, Nuyt-9-

11, Nagina, Lyp#1, Nuyt-25-11, Carmen, BL-1176-Riostone-1-1, Libnan Arif, Nuyt-04-11,

Salma, Po-02, 09088, 09080, 10127, 10113, 09091, 10125 and 014276). There was a

significant negative correlation between TLCVD incidence and relative humidity was on all

the varieties/lines. Only two varieties (Big Beef and Salma) exhibited significant correlation

with rainfall and TLCVD incidence and a remaining twenty five varieties/lines showed non-

significant correlation with rainfall and TLCVD incidence. All the varieties/lines showed

non-significant correlation with wind speed.

Page 63: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Table 4.5. Confirmation of resistance level against TLCV through graft inoculation and

ELISA

Serial

No.

Varieties/lines

Response

ELISA

results

Graft

inoculation Transmission

(%) Infected/total

1 Roker MR* +** 2/5 40

2 Big Beef S +++ 3/5 60

3 09079 MR + 2/5 40

4 Uovo Roseo MS ++ 3/5 60

5 Naqeeb R + 1/5 20

6 Roma R + 1/5 20

7 Caldera S +++ 3/5 60

8 Sitara-TS-101 HS ++++ 4/5 80

9 Pakit R + 0 0

10 Riogrande R + 0 0

11 Nuyt-9-11 MS ++ 2/5 40

12 Nagina R + 0 0

13 Lyp#1 MR + 1/5 20

14 Nuyt-25-11 MR + 2/5 40

15 Carmen MR + 2/5 40

16 BL-1176-Riostone-1-1 S +++ 4/5 80

17 Libnan Arif S +++ 3/5 60

18 Nuyt-04-11 R + 1/5 20

19 Salma HS ++++ 5/5 100

20 Po-02 MS ++ 2/5 40

21 09088 MR + 2/5 40

22 09080 R + 1/5 20

23 10127 S +++ 3/5 60

24 10113 MS ++ 3/5 60

25 09091 R + 1/5 20

26 10125 S ++++ 4/5 80

27 014276 HS ++++ 5/5 100

*R= Resistant, MR= Moderately Resistant, MS= Moderately Susceptible, S= Susceptible and

HS= Highly Susceptible

**+ = week reaction, ++ = moderate reaction, +++ = strong reaction and ++++ = very strong

reaction

Page 64: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Table 4.6. Pearson’s correlation co-efficients of environmental factors with TLCVD

incidence on tomato varieties/lines during 2012 and 2013

Varieties/lines Maximum

temperature

(°C)

Minimum

temperature

(°C)

Relative

humidity

(%)

Rainfall

(mm)

Wind

speed

(Km/h)

Roker 0.798*

0.002

0.743*

0.006

-0.769*

0.003

0.455

0.137

0.29

0.36

Big Beef 0.751*

0.005

0.647*

0.023

-0.846*

0.001

0.582*

0.047

0.232

0.467

09079 0.806*

0.002

0.703*

0.011

-0.791*

0.002

0.475

0.118

0.333

0.29

Uovo Roseo 0.845*

0.001

0.807*

0.002

-0.764*

0.004

0.533

0.074

0.243

0.447

Naqeeb 0.835*

0.001

0.793*

0.002

-0.801*

0.002

0.558

0.06

0.248

0.438

Roma 0.849*

0.001

0.777*

0.003

-0.806*

0.002

0.539

0.071

0.236

0.459

Caldera 0.763*

0.004

0.656*

0.021

-0.828*

0.001

0.558

0.059

0.255

0.423

Sitara-TS-101 0.769*

0.003

0.667*

0.018

-0.824*

0.001

0.529

0.077

0.266

0.403

Pakit 0.832*

0.001

0.787*

0.002

-0.801*

0.002

0.565

0.055

0.241

0.451

Riogrande 0.825*

0.001

0.780*

0.003

-0.797*

0.002

0.551

0.064

0.253

0.427

Nutyt-9-11 0.777*

0.003

0.743*

0.006

-0.796*

0.002

0.481

0.113

0.327

0.299

Nagina 0.828*

0.001

0.785*

0.002

-0.793*

0.002

0.57

0.053

0.251

0.432

Lyp#1 0.791*

0.002

0.722*

0.008

-0.808*

0.001

0.499

0.098

0.265

0.405

Nuyt-25-11 0.776* 0.692* -0.794* 0.493 0.388

Page 65: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

0.003 0.013 0.002 0.104 0.212

Carmen 0.797*

0.002

0.740*

0.006

-0.763*

0.004

0.473

0.12

0.288

0.365

BL-1176-

Riostone-1-1

0.793*

0.002

0.746*

0.005

-0.824*

0.001

0.551

0.063

0.278

0.381

Libnan Arif 0.792*

0.002

0.745*

0.005

-0.826*

0.001

0.553

0.062

0.275

0.388

Nuyt-04-11 0.830*

0.001

0.752*

0.005

-0.830*

0.001

0.526

0.079

0.278

0.382

Salma 0.740*

0.006

.612*

0.034

-0.830*

0.001

.607*

0.036

0.218

0.497

Po-02 0.778*

0.003

0.743*

0.006

-0.794*

0.002

0.478

0.116

0.331

0.294

09088 0.791*

0.002

0.731*

0.007

-0.725*

0.008

0.442

0.15

0.289

0.363

09080 0.839*

0.001

0.785*

0.003

-0.792*

0.002

0.555

0.061

0.229

0.474

10127 0.790*

0.002

0.741*

0.006

-0.833*

0.001

0.547

0.066

0.276

0.385

10113 0.780*

0.003

0.750*

0.005

-0.789*

0.002

0.484

0.111

0.334

0.288

09091 0.818*

0.001

0.762*

0.004

-0.811*

0.001

0.544

0.067

0.297

0.348

10125 0.782*

0.003

0.731*

0.007

-0.836*

0.001

0.549

0.064

0.279

0.38

014276 0.794*

0.002

0.734*

0.007

-0.809*

0.001

0.563

0.056

0.228

0.476

Upper values indicate Pearson’s correlation coefficient

Lower values indicate level of probability at P = 0.05

Page 66: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

4.5. Correlation of environmental factors with B. tabaci population on different tomato

varieties/lines during 2012 and 2013

In overall correlation analysis, the contribution of three environmental variables

maximum and minimum temperatures and relative humidity was significant as compared to

rainfall and wind speed for B. tabaci population (Table 4.7). Maximum and minimum

temperature had significantly positive correlation with B. tabaci population on all

varieties/lines (Roker, Big Beef, 09079, Uovo Roseo, Naqeeb, Roma, Caldera, Sitara-TS-

101, Pakit, Riogrande, Nuyt-9-11, Nagina, Lyp#1, Nuyt-25-11, Carmen, BL-1176-Riostone-

1-1, Libnan Arif, Nuyt -04-11, Salma, Po-02, 09088, 09080, 10127, 10113, 09091, 10125

and 014276). The correlation of relative humidity with B. tabaci population was significantly

negative on all the five varieties/lines. The correlation of B. tabaci population was non-

significant with rainfall and wind speed on all the varieties/lines.

Table 4.7. Pearson’s correlation coefficients of environmental factors with B. tabaci

population on tomato varieties/lines during 2012 and 2013

Varieties/lines Maximum

temperature

(°C)

Minimum

temperature

(°C)

Relative

humidity

(%)

Rainfall

(mm)

Wind

speed

(Km/h)

Roker 0.843*

0.001

0.671*

0.017

-0.741*

0.006

0.416

0.178

0.371

0.235

Big Beef 0.878*

0.001

0.802*

0.002

-0.750*

0.005

0.51

0.091

0.279

0.379

09079 0.862*

0.002

0.728*

0.007

-0.701*

0.011

0.453

0.139

0.351

0.263

Uovo Roseo 0.856*

0.001

0.710*

0.01

-0.751*

0.005

0.449

0.144

0.352

0.261

Naqeeb 0.902*

0.003

0.730*

0.007

-0.694*

0.012

0.475

0.119

0.357

0.254

Roma 0.833*

0.001

0.694*

0.012

-0.709*

0.01

0.427

0.166

0.304

0.338

Caldera 0.883*

0.001

0.803*

0.002

-0.757*

0.004

0.511

0.089

0.28

0.377

Sitara-TS-101 0.855* 0.787* -0.801* 0.531 0.303

Page 67: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

0.001 0.002 0.002 0.075 0.339

Pakit 0.791*

0.002

0.645*

0.024

-0.632*

0.027

0.381

0.222

0.31

0.326

Riogrande 0.814*

0.001

0.674*

0.016

-0.673*

0.017

0.413

0.182

0.284

0.372

Nuyt-9-11 0.880*

0.003

0.774*

0.003

-0.749*

0.005

0.498

0.1

0.313

0.322

Nagina 0.798*

0.002

0.641*

0.025

-0.706*

0.01

0.395

0.204

0.302

0.341

Lyp#1

0.839*

0.001

0.685*

0.014

-0.725*

0.008

0.424

0.17

0.365

0.243

Nuyt-25-11 0.868*

0.001

0.729*

0.007

-0.723*

0.008

0.457

0.135

0.344

0.274

Carmen 0.828*

0.001

0.662*

0.019

-0.727*

0.007

0.403

0.194

0.375

0.229

BL-1176-

Riostone-1-1

0.878*

0.002

0.804*

0.002

-0.760*

0.004

0.515

0.087

0.259

0.417

Libnan Arif 0.878*

0.001

0.809*

0.001

-0.761*

0.004

0.522

0.082

0.263

0.408

Nuyt -04-11 0.815*

0.001

0.678*

0.015

-0.708*

0.01

0.412

0.184

0.322

0.308

Salma 0.857*

0.003

0.799*

0.002

-0.787*

0.002

0.531

0.076

0.292

0.356

Po-02 0.869*

0.001

0.800*

0.002

-0.704*

0.011

0.463

0.13

0.328

0.299

09088 0.850*

0.003

0.704*

0.011

-0.756*

0.004

0.454

0.138

0.355

0.258

09080 0.873*

0.002

0.709*

0.001

-0.708*

0.001

0.409

0.187

0.284

0.371

Page 68: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

10127 0.870*

0.003

0.797*

0.002

-0.783*

0.003

0.552

0.063

0.234

0.464

10113 0.890*

0.002

0.801*

0.002

-0.760*

0.003

0.501

0.097

0.268

0.399

09091 0.825*

0.001

0.669*

0.017

-0.746*

0.005

0.413

0.183

0.355

0.258

10125 0.871*

0.003

0.799*

0.002

-0.781*

0.003

0.559

0.059

0.22

0.491

014276 0.862*

0.004

0.807*

0.002

-0.790*

0.002

0.561

0.058

0.255

0.424

Upper values indicate Pearson’s correlation coefficient

Lower values indicate level of probability at P = 0.05

4.6. Characterization of environmental conditions conducive for the development of

TLCVD on five susceptible to highly susceptible varieties/lines during two years

(2012 and 2013)

The environmental conditions conducive for TLCV disease development were

characterized on five tomato varieties/lines i.e. Big Beef, Caldera, Sitara-TS-101, 014276 and

Salma. There was significant relationship between temperature (maximum and minimum)

and TLCVD incidence (Fig. 4.3 and Fig. 4.4). The relationship between relative humidity

and TLCVD incidence was significantly negative (Fig. 4.5). The relationship of rainfall and

wind speed with TLCVD incidence was very poor (Fig. 4.6 and Fig. 4.7). Maximum

temperature ranged from 32 to 38°C during two years (Fig. 4.3). The TLCVD incidence

increased with increase in maximum temperature and explained 79 to 85% of the variability

in the disease development. Highly significant relationship of maximum temperature with

TLCVD incidence was found in case of variety Salma where it contributed 85% towards

disease development. The minimum temperature ranged from 22 to 29°C and was

significantly correlated with TLCVD incidence during two years (Fig. 4.4). The correlation

of minimum temperature with disease development was best explained by linear relationship

as indicated by higher r values. The minimum temperature explained 84 to 95% of the

variability in TLCVD development. The minimum temperature explained 95% of the

variability in disease development in advance line 014276.

Page 69: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Relative humidity had significant influence on TLCVD incidence and linear

relationship explained 78 to 87% variability in disease development (Fig. 4.5). There was

negative correlation between relative humidity and disease incidence. The maximum

influence of relative humidity was observed on Big Beef where it contributed 87% towards

disease development. Rainfall had non-significant influence on TLCVD incidence and

polynomial regression explained 47 to 54% of the variability in disease development (Fig.

4.6). The rainfall explained maximum 54% variability in disease development in case of

Sitara-TS-101. The wind speed had non-significant effect in the TLCVD development and its

contribution was very poor (Fig.4.7). The linear model indicated very low r values. The

wind speed exerted maximum influence of about 34% in disease development in case of

Sitara-TS-101.

Fig. 4.3: Relationship of maximum temperature with TLCVD incidence on five tomato

varieties/lines i.e. Y1=Big Beef, Y2=Caldera, Y3=Sitara-TS-101, Y4=014276 and

Y5=Salma during 2012 and 2013.

Y1 = 72.4+11.83x

r = 0.81Y2 = 85.9+12.25x

r = 0.83

Y3 = 91.9+15.57x

r = 0.79

Y4 = 82.9+15.37x

r = 0.82

Y5 = 92.3+16.56x

r = 0.85

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

32 33 34 35 36 37 38

Maximum temperature (°C)

Dis

ease

inci

den

ce (

%)

Page 70: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Fig. 4.4: Relationship of minimum temperature with TLCVD incidence on five tomato

varieties/lines i.e. Y1=Big Beef, Y2=Caldera, Y3=Sitara-TS-101, Y4=014276 and

Y5=Salma during 2012 and 2013.

Fig. 4.5: Relationship of relative humidity with TLCVD incidence on five tomato

varieties/lines i.e. Y1=Big Beef, Y2=Caldera, Y3=Sitara-TS-101, Y4=014276 and

Y5=Salma during 2012 and 2013.

Y1 = 25.8+8.27x

r = 0.89

Y2 = 15.6+8.26x

r = 0.84

Y3 = 21.8+9.73x

r = 0.87

Y4 = 37.9+9.69x

r = 0.95

Y5 = 35.5+9.45x

r = 0.92

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20 22 24 26 28 30

Minimum temperature (°C)

Dis

ease

inci

den

ce (

%)

Y1 = 96.1+1.35x

r = 0.87

Y2 = 98.6+1.39x

r = 0.82

Y3 = 94.4+1.77x

r = 0.78

Y4 = 95.4+1.74x

r = 0.85

Y5 = 92.4+1.86x

r = 0.86

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

15 25 35 45 55

Relative humidity (%)

Dis

ease

inci

den

ce (

%)

Page 71: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Fig. 4.6: Relationship of rainfall with TLCVD incidence on five tomato varieties/lines i.e.

Y1=Big Beef, Y2=Caldera, Y3=Sitara-TS-101, Y4=014276 and Y5=Salma during

2012 and 2013

Fig. 4.7: Relationship of wind speed with TLCVD incidence on five tomato varieties/lines i.e.

Y1=Big Beef, Y2=Caldera, Y3=Sitara-TS-101, Y4=014276 and Y5=Salma during

2012 and 2013

Y1 = 35.05+13.17x-1.31x2

r = 0.52

Y2 = 36.23+13.27x-1.33x2

r = 0.53

Y3 = 44.79+14.43x-1.46x2

r = 0.54

Y4 = 47.45+13.48x-1.15x2

r = 0.47

Y5 = 48.98+12.56x-0.83x2

r = 0.48

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Rainfall (mm)

Dis

ease

inci

den

ce (

%)

Y1 = 1.01+3.24x-0.41x2

r = 0.27

Y2 = 2.73+4.78x-0.37x2

r = 0.32

Y3 = 1.14+4.13x-0.51x2

r = 0.34

Y4 = 1.24+2.87x-0.53x2

r = 0.29

Y5 = 1.58+3.63x-0.58x2

r = 0.34

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Wind speed (Km/h)

Dis

ease

inci

den

ce (

%)

Page 72: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

4.7. Characterization of environmental conditions conducive for the development of B.

tabaci population on five varieties/lines during two years (2012 and 2013)

The environmental conditions conducive for the development of B. tabaci population

were characterized on five tomato varieties/lines i.e., Big Beef, Caldera, Sitara-TS-101,

014276 and Salma. There was significantly positive relationship between temperature

(maximum and minimum) and B. tabaci population (Fig. 4.8 and Fig. 4.9). The relationship

between relative humidity and B. tabaci population was significantly negative (Fig. 4.10).

The relationship of B. tabaci population was very poor with rainfall and wind speed (Fig.

4.11 and Fig. 4.12). The maximum temperature ranged from 32 to 38°C during two years

(Fig. 4.8). The B. tabaci population increased with increase in maximum temperature and

linear regression model explained 83 to 91% variability in the B. tabaci population

development. Highly significant relationship was found between maximum temperature and

B. tabaci population in case of advance line 014276 where it contributed 91% towards B.

tabaci population development. The minimum temperature ranged from 22 to 29°C

significantly correlated with B. tabaci population during two years (Fig. 4.9). The

relationship of minimum temperature was best. The minimum temperature explained 75 to

85% of the variability in B. tabaci population build up. The minimum temperature

contributed 85% towards B. tabaci population in variety Caldera.

Relative humidity had significant influence on B. tabaci population and a linear

regression model with Rh as a single variable explained 78 to 85% variability in B. tabaci

population development (Fig. 4.10). There was negative relationship i.e. as the relative

humidity increased the B. tabaci population decreased. The maximum influence of relative

humidity was observed in case of Big Beef where it contributed 85% for B. tabaci

population. Rainfall had not significant influence on B. tabaci population and polynomial

regression explained 35 to 42% of the variability in B. tabaci population development (Fig.

4.11). The rainfall explained 42% variability in B. tabaci population infestation in case of

014276. The wind speed had non-significant effect in the B. tabaci population build up and

its contribution was very poor (Fig.4.12). The polynomial regression indicated very low r

values. The wind speed exerted maximum influence of about 36% on B. tabaci population in

case of advance line 014276.

Page 73: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Fig. 4.8: Relationship of maximum temperature with B. tabaci population on five tomato

varieties/lines i.e. Y1=Big Beef, Y2=Caldera, Y3=Sitara-TS-101, Y4=014276 and

Y5=Salma during 2012 and 2013.

Fig. 4.9: Relationship of minimum temperature with B. tabaci population on five tomato

varieties/lines i.e. Y1=Big Beef, Y2=Caldera, Y3=Sitara-TS-101, Y4=014276 and

Y5=Salma during 2012 and 2013.

Y1 = 27.98+0.91x

r = 0.98

Y2 = 23.11+0.77x

r = 0.94

Y3 = 44.17+1.39x

r = 0.98

Y4 = 42.25+1.34x

r = 0.95

Y5 = 53.051.65x

r = 0.96

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

32 33 34 35 36 37 38

B.

tab

aci

popu

lati

on

Maximum temperature (°C)

Y1 = 8.11+0.55x

r = 0.83

Y2 = 8.57+0.47x

r = 0.85

Y3 = 7.74+0.85x

r = 0.80

Y4 = 7.12+0.83x

r = 0.78

Y5 = 6.29+1.03x

r = 0.75

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

20 22 24 26 28 30

Minimum temperature (°C)

B.

tab

aci

popu

lati

on

Page 74: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Fig. 4.10: Relationship of relative humidity with B. tabaci population on five tomato

varieties/lines i.e. Y1=Big Beef, Y2=Caldera, Y3=Sitara-TS-101, Y4=014276

and Y5=Salma during 2012 and 2013.

Fig. 4.11: Relationship of rainfall with B. tabaci population on five tomato varieties/lines

i.e. Y1=Big Beef, Y2=Caldera, Y3=Sitara-TS-101, Y4=014276 and Y5=Salma

during 2012 and 2013

Y1 = 7.72+0.13x

r = 0.85

Y2 = 7.22+0.83x

r = 0.83

Y3 = 9.72+0.23x

r = 0.82

Y4 = 8.14+0.45x

r = 0.79

Y5 = 7.82+0.69x

r = 0.78

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Relative humidity (%)

B.

tab

aci

popu

lati

on

Y1 = 3.65+1.28x-0.16x2

r = 0.37

Y2 = 3.57+0.64x-0.05x2

r = 0.39

Y3 = 3.89+1.36x-0.11x2

r = 0.35

Y4 = 3.51+1.55x-0.16x2

r = 0.42

Y5 = 3.65+1.43x-0.17x2

r = 0.36

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0 2 4 6 8 10

Rainfall (mm)

B.

tab

aci

popu

lati

on

Page 75: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Fig. 4.12: Relationship of wind speed with B. tabaci population on five tomato varieties/lines

i.e. Y1=Big Beef, Y2=Caldera, Y3=Sitara-TS-101, Y4=014276 and Y5=Salma

during 2012 and 2013

4.8. Analysis of variance of TLCVD incidence during two years (2012 and 2013)

During two years the individual effects of variety, week and year were highly

significant for TLCVD incidence. The two ways interaction of variety with week and week

with year was also highly significant. The two ways interaction of variety with year was non-

significant while three ways interaction of variety, week and year was significant (Table.

4.8).

4.8.1. Analysis of variance of environmental conditions during two years (2012 and

2013)

During two years (2012 and 2013) analysis of variance, the individual effect of year and

variety was significant in case of environmental variables i.e. maximum and minimum

temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed. The two way interactive effect of

year and variety was not significant (Table 4.10a and Table 4.10b).

Y1 = 2.53+0.88x-0.11x2

r = 0.18

Y2 = 3.11+1.63x-0.23x2

r = 0.23

Y3 = 4.12+3.12x-0.39x2

r = 0.29

Y4 = 6.13+2.53x-0.43x2

r = 0.36

Y5 = 5.34+1.62x-0.52x2

r = 0.32

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0 2 4 6 8

B.

tab

aci

popu

lati

on

Wind speed (Km/h)

Page 76: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

4.8.2. Comparison of environmental conditions during the years 2012 and 2013

During two years 2012 and 2013 all the environmental variables (maximum and

minimum temperature, relative humidity and wind speed) and TLCVD incidence showed

significant difference. The maximum temperature was 38.04°C and 37.57°C, whereas

TLCVD incidence was 95.18 and 94.26, respectively during two years (Table 4.9).

4.8.3. Overall correlation of weekly environmental conditions with TLCVD incidence

during two years (2012 and 2013)

Overall correlation of environmental conditions with TLCVD incidence was

significant during two years except rainfall and wind speed (Table. 4.11). The relationship of

TLCVD incidence was significantly positive with maximum and minimum temperature in all

five varieties. There was significantly negative relationship between TLCVD incidence and

relative humidity. Rainfall and wind speed were found non-significant in overall correlation

with TLCVD incidence during 2012 and 2013.

4.8.4. Year wise correlation of weekly environmental conditions with TLCVD incidence

during 2012 and 2013

A highly significant correlation was observed between environmental parameters

(maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall) and TLCVD incidence

during both years only the correlation of wind speed (r < 0.20 and r < 0.22) with TLCVD

incidence was found non-significant during both years (Table 4.12).

Table 4.8: ANOVA for TLCVD incidence during two years (2012 and 2013)

Source DF SS MS F-value P-value

Replication 2 0.002 0.001

Variety 4 14.91 3.73 138.42 0.001*

Week 5 290.87 58.17 2160.21 0.001*

Year 1 7.94 7.94 294.77 0.001*

Variety*Week 20 1.96 0.09 3.65 0.001*

Variety*Year 4 0.16 0.04 1.53 0.205NS

Week*Year 5 21.38 4.28 158.82 0.001*

Variety*Week*Year 20 1.03 0.05 1.92 0.018*

Error 118 3.18 0.03

Total 179 341.43

*Significant at P< 0.05 NS=Non-significant

Page 77: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Table 4.9: Comparison of environmental conditions for TLCVD incidence during two

years (2012 and 2013)

Environmental factors 2012 2013 LSD

Maximum temperature (°C) 38.04a

37.57b

1.53

Minimum temperature (°C) 29.46a

29.05b

1.91

Relative humidity (%) 51.51a 50.74b

6.28

Rainfall (mm) 1.2a 0.64b 0.52

Wind speed (Km/h) 5.91b 6.73a

0.77

Disease incidence 95.18b

94.26a

0.39

*Means with similar letters in a row are not significantly different at P = 0.05

Page 78: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Table 4.23a: Analysis of variance of environmental factors (maximum and minimum temperature) during 2012 and 2013

Table 4.23b: ANOVA of environmental factors (relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed) during 2012and 2013)

Relative humidity (%) Rainfall (mm) Wind speed (Km/h)

Source DF SS MS F P SS MS F P SS MS F P

Week 5 125.8 25.16 157.2 0.001* 244.16 48.83 168.37 0.001* 30.41 6.08 67.55 0.004*

Year 1 460.6 460.6 2878.75 0.002* 141.12 141.12 486.62 0.001* 26.62 26.6 295.5 0.001*

Variety 4 114.2 28.55 178.44 0.001* 75.34 18.83 64.93 0.002* 24.61 6.15 68.33 0.001*

Y*V 4 271.6 67.9 424.38 0.423NS 382.25 95.56 329.51 0.756NS 34.32 8.58 95.33 0.994NS

Error 165 26.4 0.16 47.87 0.29 15.24 0.09

Total 179 998.6 890.74 131.1

Maximum temperature (°C) Minimum temperature (°C)

Source DF SS MS F-value P-value SS MS F-value P-value

Week 5 802.79 160.55 1114.91 0.001* 1763.65 352.73 708.31 0.001*

Year 1 97.24 97.24 675.28 0.001* 408.15 408.15 819.58 0.001*

Variety 4 25.09 6.27 43.56 0.001* 165.12 41.28 82.89 0.004*

Y*V 4 38.26 9.57 66.42 0.991NS 112.42 28.11 56.44 0.508NS

Error 165 23.79 0.14 82.17 0.49

Total 179 987.17 2531.36

Page 79: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Table. 4.11: Overall correlation of weekly environmental conditions with TLCVD

incidence during 2012 and 2013

Varieties/lines

Maximum

temperature

(°C)

Minimum

temperature

(°C)

Relative

humidity

(%)

Rainfall

(mm)

Wind

speed

(Km/h)

Big Beef 0.786*

0.002

0.743*

0.006

-0.814*

0.001

0.511NS

0.090

0.275NS

0.388

Caldera 0.785*

0.002

0.739*

0.006

-0.788*

0.002

0.510NS

0.090

0.292NS

0.357

Sitara-TS101 0.772*

0.003

0.735*

0.006

-0.763*

0.004

0.510NS

0.090

0.298NS

0.348

014276 0.795*

0.002

0.743*

0.006

-0.809*

0.001

0.511NS

0.090

0.266NS

0.404

Salma 0.799*

0.002

0.745*

0.005

-0.816*

0.001

0.511NS

0.089

0.245NS

0.442

*Significant at P = 0.05 NS=Non-significant

Table. 4.12: Year wise correlation of weekly environmental conditions with TLCVD

incidence during 2012 and 2013

Environmental Conditions 2012 2013

Maximum temperature (°C) 0.927*

0.001

0.849*

0.002

Minimum temperature (°C) 0.847*

0.001

0.842*

0.002

Relative humidity (%) -0.895*

0.001

-0.945*

0.002

Rainfall (mm) 0.649*

0.004

0.624*

0.003

Wind speed (Km/h) 0.197NS

0.063

0.215NS

0.41

*Significant at P = 0.05 NS=Non-significant

4.9. Development of TLCVD disease predictive model based on two years data (2012

and 2013)

A TLCV disease predictive model was developed through stepwise regression

analysis of two years (2012 and 2013) environmental and disease incidence data. The

multiple regression model; Y= 0.532+ 0.053x1 + 0.97x2-0.081x3+0.15x4 was used to predict

Page 80: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

the probable onset of TLCVD under given set of environmental variables. In this model, Y =

TLCVD incidence, x1= maximum temperature, x2 = minimum temperature, x3 = relative

humidity and x4 = rainfall. It is evident from the model equation that major factors

responsible for the attack of TLCV were temperature (maximum and minimum), relative

humidity and rainfall. It indicated from the above regression equation that with one unit

change in maximum temperature there would be probable change of 0.053 units in TLCVD.

The change would be 0.97 units in case of minimum temperature and with one unit increase

in relative humidity TLCVD incidence would be decreased 0.081 units. Disease would be

affected 0.15 units with one unit change in rainfall. Two years predictive model explained

85% variability in TLCVD incidence (Table 4.13). Among environmental variables relative

humidity, minimum temperature, rainfall and relative humidity appeared as the main

contributing factors in the stepwise regression analysis. The model containing these variables

explained 65 to 85% variability in disease development.

Table. 4.13: Summary of stepwise regression model to predict TLCVD during 2012 and

2013

Variable

Entered

No. in

model

Model

R2

C(p) F-value P-value

Relative humidity (%) 1 0.65 230.42 325.14 0.001*

Minimum temperature (°C) 2 0.82 29.95 175.72 0.001*

Rainfall (mm) 3 0.85 4.71 27.12 0.001*

Maximum temperature (°C) 4 0.85 4.12 4.61 0.004*

*Significant at P = 0.05

4.9.1. TLCVD disease predictive model assessment during two years (2012 and 2013)

After selecting independent variables, a regression model needs to be validated before

being used because the goal of model development is to identify the best possible variables

for a particular system. The statistical procedure as described by Chattefuee and Hadi (2006);

Snee (1977) was followed in the model assessment processes.

4.9.2. Comparison of the dependent variable (TLCVD) and regression coefficients with

physical theory

One of the most important parameter to check the model reliability is the value of

coefficient of determination, i.e., R2. In TLCVD predictive model, it was 0.85 which is

considered fairly good particularly under field conditions when one has no control on any of

Page 81: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

the studied variables (Table. 4.14). Standard error of estimate was reasonably low (0.295).

The F-distribution of regression model was significant at P<0.05 (Table. 4.15). The relative

contribution of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity and rainfall

towards the development of model was significant at P<0.05 and all these environmental

variables showed low standard error <1 (Table 4.16). It may be concluded on the basis of

high R2 value, low standard error and significant regression statistics that the model is good

for prediction TLCVD incidence.

Table. 4.14: Regression statistics of the predictive model for TLCVD based on two

years (2012 and 2013)

Regression Statistics

R2 0.85

Adjusted R2 0.84

MSE 0.29

Standard Error 0.29

Observations 180

Table. 4.15: ANOVA of the TLCVD predictive model for based on two years

environmental conditions data

Source DF SS MS F-value P-value

Model 4 289.68 72.42 244.91 0.001*

Error 175 51.75 0.29

Total 179 341.42

*Significant at P = 0.05

Table. 4.16: Coefficients of variables, their standard error, t Stat, P-value and

significance

Parameters Coefficients Standard

Error

Type II SS t stat P-value

Intercept 0.53 1.17 0.06 0.21 0.001*

Maximum temperature (°C) 0.053 0.032 1.72 4.61 0.004*

Minimum temperature (°C) 0.097 0.019 7.14 24.13 0.001*

Relative humidity (%) -0.081 0.005 74.07 250.49 0.001*

Rainfall (mm) 0.15 0.027 8.77 29.66 0.001*

*Significant at P=0.05

Page 82: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

4.9.3. Variety wise predictive model for TLCVD incidence

The minimum temperature and relative humidity were epidemiologically important in

the development of TLCVD on five tomato varieties/lines. These were subjected to stepwise

regression analysis and single variety models were developed. The TLCVD values predicted

by these single variety models were in close conformity with observed values recorded on

five tomato varieties/lines viz. Big Beef, Caldera, Sitara-TS-101, 014276 and Salma.

The models with significantly important variables were developed by stepwise regression

on five tomato varieties/lines separately to predict TLCVD incidence during two years (Table

4.17). Out of five variables entered, two of them i .e. minimum temperature and relative

humidity appeared as the main contributing environmental variables and exerted significant

influence in the development of TLCVD. In stepwise regression analysis maximum

temperature, rainfall and wind speed were assessed as very poor on all five varieties/lines (Big

Beef, Caldera, Sitara-TS-101, 014276 and Salma). The model containing these variables

explained above 85 percent variability in TLCVD incidence in all varieties/lines. When these

two environmental variable models were used to predict TLCVD incidence, there was a fairly

good R2 value, low C (p) value and low RMSE value come as result.

Table 4.17: Summary of stepwise regression model developed to predict TLCVD

incidence with respect to environmental factors on five tomato

varieties/lines during two years

Environmental parameters R2 Adj. R2 C (p) RMSE Pr > F

Big Beef 0.93 0.91 0.139 0.51

Minimum temperature (°C) 0.002*

Relative humidity (%) 0.001*

Caldera 0.89 0.87 0.204 0.61

Minimum temperature (°C) 0.009*

Relative humidity (%) 0.004*

Sitara-TS-101 0.86 0.83 0.240 0.67

Minimum temperature (°C) 0.002*

Relative humidity (%) 0.001*

014276 0.92 0.91 0.083 0.55

Minimum temperature (°C) 0.003*

Relative humidity (%) 0.001*

Salma 0.93 0.92 0.096 0.53

Minimum temperature (°C) 0.001*

Relative humidity (%) 0.001*

* = Significant at P=0.05

Page 83: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

4.9.4. Evaluation of model by comparing the observed and predicted data

Second step of model evaluation was completed by comparing observed and predicted

data. Two criteria i.e. percent error and root mean square error (RMSE) value were used to

evaluate the predictions of the model. Model efficiency is considered good if predictions of

the model having percent error and RMSE of about ± 20. In present studies, most of

predictions obtained using two years model on five genotypes, showed percent error of about ±

20 (Table 4.18). Average RMSE of total predictions (180) during two years on five genotypes

was less than ± 20 (Table 4.17).

4.9.5. Graphical representation of TLCVD predictive model based on two years data

(2012 and 2013)

The graphs of normal probability plot and disease versus fit, best explained the two

years full model (Fig. 4.13). The probability plots are frequently recommended for assessing

the goodness of fit of a hypothesized distribution and are often used as an informal means of

assessing the non normality of a set of data (Johnson and Wichern, 1982).

Fig. 4.13: Normal probability plot and residual versus fit for the model of 2012-2013

The normal probability plot for the two years full model showed that most of the data

points were placed on the reference line whereas only few data points both at the lower side

and at the higher side deviate from the reference line affecting the normal distribution of data

points; it could be the cause of an error in the regression model. Residuals are estimates of

experimental error obtained by subtracting the observed responses from the predicted

responses. Residuals can be considered as the elements of variation unexplained by the fitted

Page 84: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

model. The purpose of this dot plot is to provide an indication of the distribution of the

residuals. The two years model showed that most of the data points were more or less

distributed uniformly around the reference line indicating a better fit of regression model.

Only few data points were not very closely distributed on the reference line leading to the

addition of an error in the regression model.

Table 4.18: Multiple regression equations based on environmental conditions and

predicted TLCVD incidence values during two years

Regression equations of TLCVD incidence

Y = bo + b1X1 + b2X2 + b3X3……..

Observed Predicted % Error

Big Beef = -0.26 + 0.27X1 – 0.085X2

(X1=Minimum temperature, X2= Relative humidity) 1.20 1.18 1.67

1.30 1.28 1.54

2.10 1.83 12.86

3.50 3.35 4.29

Caldera = -0.22 + 0.19X1 – 0.079X2

(X1=Minimum temperature, X2= Relative humidity) 1.50 1.45 3.33

1.60 1.47 9.38

3.60 3.45 4.17

2.30 1.63 29.13

Sitara-TS-101 = -0.162 + 0.193X1 – 0.74X2

(X1=Minimum temperature, X2= Relative humidity) 1.70 1.69 0.59

1.80 1.67 7.22

3.80 3.61 5.00

2.50 1.83 26.81

014276 = 0.18 + 0.21X1– 0.089X2

(X1= Minimum temperature, X2= Relative humidity) 4.10 4.02 1.95

4.20 4.08 2.86

1.90 1.73 8.95

2.60 2.06 20.77

Salma = 0.26+ 0.22X1- 0.094X2 (X1= Minimum temperature, X2= relative humidity) 4.30 4.21 2.09

1.90 1.76 7.37

2.20 1.95 11.36

2.80 2.18 22.14

Page 85: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

4.10. Analysis of variance for B. tabaci population during two years (2012 and 2013)

During two years (2012 and 2013) the individual effects of variety and week was

significant while the effect of year was non-significant for the development of B. tabaci

population (Table. 4.19). The two way interactions of variety with week, variety with year

and week with year were significant at P<0.05. The three way interaction of variety, week

and year was also significant. This showed that B. tabaci population varied greatly with

respect to varieties, weeks and years.

4.10.1. ANOVA of environmental conditions during two years (2012 and 2013)

During two years (2012 and 2013) analysis of variance, the individual effect of year and

variety was significant in case of environmental variables i.e. maximum and minimum

temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed. The two way interactive effect of

year and variety was not significant (Table 4.23a and Table 4.23b).

4.10.2. Comparison of environmental conditions during the years 2012 and 2013

During two years 2012 and 2013 all the environmental variables (maximum and

minimum temperature, relative humidity and wind speed) and B. tabaci population showed

significant difference. The maximum temperature was 38.04°C and 37.57°C, whereas B.

tabaci population was 8.21 and 7.78, respectively during two years (Table 4.20).

Table 4.19: ANOVA for B. tabaci population during 2012 and 2013

Source DF SS MS F-value P-value

Replication 2 0.07 0.035

Variety 4 17.94 4.49 474.05 0.001*

Week 5 776.82 155.36 16419.21 0.001*

Year 1 0.027 0.027 2.84 0.094NS

Variety*Week 20 3.39 0.17 17.92 0.001*

Variety*Year 4 0.15 0.04 4.03 0.004*

Week*Year 5 0.92 0.19 19.54 0.001*

Variety*Week*Year 20 0.51 0.03 2.71 0.004*

Error 118 1.12 0.009

Total 179 800.96

*Significant at P<0.05 NS=Non-significant

Page 86: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Table 4.20: Comparison of environmental conditions for B. tabaci population during

two years (2012 and 2013)

Environmental factors 2012 2013 LSD

Maximum temperature (°C) 38.04a

37.57b

1.53

Minimum temperature (°C) 29.46a

29.05b

1.91

Relative humidity (%) 45.51a 35.4b

6.28

Rainfall (mm) 1.2a 0.64b 0.52

Wind speed (Km/h) 5.91b 6.73a

0.77

B. tabaci population 8.21b

7.78a

0.39

*Means with similar letters in a row are not significantly different at P = 0.05

4.10.3. Correlation of weekly environmental conditions with B. tabaci population

during 2012 and 2013

The correlation of environmental conditions with B. tabaci population was determined

on five susceptible and highly susceptible varieties/lines. A highly significant role was played

by temperature (maximum and minimum) in the development of B. tabaci population in all

five varieties/lines i.e., Big Beef, Caldera, Sitara-TS-101, 014276 and Salma during two

years (Table 4.21). The overall correlation of relative humidity was significantly negative

with B. tabaci population on all five varieties/lines during both years. Rainfall and wind

speed showed non-significant relationship with B. tabaci population on all the five

varieties/lines.

4.10.4. Year wise correlation of weekly environmental conditions with B. tabaci

population during 2012 and 2013 on five varieties/lines

A highly significant correlation was observed between environmental parameters

(maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) and B. tabaci

population during both years while only the correlation of wind speed (r < 0.15) with B.

tabaci population was found non-significant on all the five varieties/lines i.e., Big Beef,

Caldera, Sitara-TS-101, 014276 and Salma (Table 4.22).

Page 87: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Table 4.21: Correlation of environmental conditions with B. tabaci population during

two years (2012 and 2013)

Varieties/lines Maximum

temperature

(° C)

Minimum

temperature

(° C)

Relative

humidity

(%)

Rainfall

(mm)

Wind

speed

(Km/h)

Big Beef 0.857*

0.000

0.780*

0.003

-0.788*

0.002

0.535NS

0.073

0.284NS

0.371

Caldera 0.864*

0.000

0.783*

0.003

-0.781*

0.003

0.538NS

0.071

0.289NS

0.362

Sitara-TS-101 0.873*

0.000

0.770*

0.003

-0.775*

0.003

0.532NS

0.075

0.307NS

0.332

014276 0.887*

0.000

0.774*

0.003

-0.770*

0.003

0.537NS

0.072

0.311NS

0.325

Salma 0.873*

0.000

0.771*

0.003

-0.767*

0.004

0.533NS

0.074

0.291NS

0.359

* Significant at P<0.05 NS = Non-significant

Table 4.22: Year wise correlation of environmental conditions with B. tabaci

population during two years (2012 and 2013) on five varieties/lines

Environmental Conditions 2012 2013

Maximum temperature (°C) 0.981*

0.002

0.920*

0.001

Minimum temperature (°C) 0.906*

0.003

0.900*

0.002

Relative humidity (%) -0.971*

0.001

-0.970*

0.001

Rainfall (mm) 0.619*

0.001

0.486*

0.002

Wind speed (Km/h) 0.431NS

0.063

0.147NS

0.167

* Significant at P<0.05 NS=Non-significant

Page 88: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Table 4.23a: Analysis of variance of environmental factors (maximum and minimum temperature) during 2012 and 2013

Table 4.23b: ANOVA of environmental factors (relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed) during 2012and 2013)

Relative humidity (%) Rainfall (mm) Wind speed (Km/h)

Source DF SS MS F P SS MS F P SS MS F P

Week 5 125.8 25.16 157.2 0.001* 244.16 48.83 168.37 0.001* 30.41 6.08 67.55 0.004*

Year 1 460.6 460.6 2878.75 0.002* 141.12 141.12 486.62 0.001* 26.62 26.6 295.5 0.001*

Variety 4 114.2 28.55 178.44 0.001* 75.34 18.83 64.93 0.002* 24.61 6.15 68.33 0.001*

Y*V 4 271.6 67.9 424.38 0.423NS 382.25 95.56 329.51 0.756NS 34.32 8.58 95.33 0.994NS

Error 165 26.4 0.16 47.87 0.29 15.24 0.09

Total 179 998.6 890.74 131.1

Maximum temperature (°C) Minimum temperature (°C)

Source DF SS MS F-value P-value SS MS F-value P-value

Week 5 802.79 160.55 1114.91 0.001* 1763.65 352.73 708.31 0.001*

Year 1 97.24 97.24 675.28 0.001* 408.15 408.15 819.58 0.001*

Variety 4 25.09 6.27 43.56 0.001* 165.12 41.28 82.89 0.004*

Y*V 4 38.26 9.57 66.42 0.991NS 112.42 28.11 56.44 0.508NS

Error 165 23.79 0.14 82.17 0.49

Total 179 987.17 2531.36

Page 89: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

4.11. Development of B. tabaci population predictive model based on two years data

(2012 and 2013)

Two years environmental conditions and B. tabaci population data were subjected to

stepwise regression for the development of predictive model. A multiple regression model;

Y= -7.76+0.231x1+0.21x2-0.092x3+0.11x4+0.086x5 (where Y = B. tabaci population, x1=

maximum temperature, x2 = minimum temperature, x3 = relative humidity, x4 = rainfall, x5 =

wind speed) was developed to predict the probable attack of B. tabaci on tomato crop. It is

evident from the model equation that major factors responsible for the attack of whitefly

were maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and wind

speed prevalent at that time. It indicated that with one unit change in maximum temperature

there would be probable change of 0.231 units in B. tabaci population. The change would be

0.21 units in case of minimum temperature. Relative humidity has also significant

contributing role in built up of whitefly i.e., linear expansion in single part of relative

humidity would cause equivalent increase in 0.092 units of B. tabaci population. One unit

change in rainfall and wind speed will affect the B. tabaci population by 0.11 and 0.086 units

respectively. Model explained maximum 92% variability in B. tabaci population (Table

4.24). Maximum temperature, relative humidity and minimum temperature appeared as the

main contributing environmental variables in the stepwise regression analysis. The influence

of rainfall and wind speed was very poor. The model containing these variables explained 73

to 92 % variability in B. tabaci population development.

Table 4.24: Summary of stepwise regression model to predict B. tabaci population

during two years 2012 and 2013

Variable entered No. in model Model R2 C(p) F-value P-value

Maximum temperature (°C) 1 0.73 414.75 504.04 0.001*

Relative humidity (%) 2 0.83 202.06 101.05 0.001*

Minimum temperature (°C) 3 0.92 17.98 172.39 0.001*

Rainfall (mm) 4 0.92 10.81 8.87 0.003*

Wind speed (Km/h) 5 0.92 6.00 6.81 0.009*

* = Significant at P<0.05

Page 90: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

4.11.1. Comparison of the dependent variable (B. tabaci) and regression co-efficient

with physical theory

One of the most important parameter to check the model reliability is the value of

coefficient of determination, i.e., R2, which was 0.92 that is considered fairly good

particularly under field conditions when one has no control on any of the studied variables.

Standard error of estimate was quite low (1.34) (Table 4.25). The F-distribution of

regression model was significant at P<0.05 (Table 4.26). The contribution of environmental

variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and

wind speed) was significant towards B. tabaci population at P<0.05 and each of them

showed quite low standard error <1 (Table 4.27). It may be concluded that the model is

good for prediction purpose from set of the unknown variables based on physical theory.

Table 4.25: Regression statistics of the predictive model for B. tabaci based on two

years (2012 and 2013) data

Regression Statistics

R2 0.92

Adjusted R2 0.91

MSE 0.35

Standard Error 1.34

Observations 180

Table 4.26: ANOVA of the predictive model for B. tabaci based on two years data

Source DF Sum of Square Mean

Square

F-value P-value

Regression 5 739.39 147.88 417.91 0.001*

Error 174 61.57 0.35

Total 179 800.96

* = Significant at P <0.05

Table 4.27: Co-efficient of variables, their standard error, t Stat, P-value and

Significance

Parameters Coefficients Standard

Error

Type II

SS

t Stat P-value

Intercept -7.76 1.29 12.73 35.97 0.001*

Maximum temperature (°C) 0.231 0.04 14.83 41.92 0.001*

Minimum temperature (°C) 0.21 0.02 32.48 91.78 0.001*

Relative humidity (%) -0.092 0.005 88.93 251.32 0.001*

Rainfall (mm) 0.11 0.03 4.31 12.18 0.006*

Wind speed (Km/h) 0.086 0.03 2.41 6.81 0.009*

* = Significant at P <0.05

Page 91: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

4.11.2. Variety wise predictive model for B. tabaci population

The model with significantly important variables was developed by stepwise

regression on five tomato varieties/lines separately to predict B. tabaci population during two

years (Table 4.28). Out of five variables entered, only minimum temperature and relative

humidity contributed significantly towards the development of B. tabaci population in all the

varieties/lines except in case of 014276 where maximum temperature, minimum temperature

and relative humidity appeared as the main contributing environmental variables in the

stepwise regression analysis. In stepwise regression analysis maximum temperature, rainfall

and wind speed were assessed as very poor in all five varieties/lines (Big Beef, Caldera, Sitara-

TS-101, 014276 and Salma). The model containing these variables explained above 90%

variability in B. tabaci population in all varieties/lines. When these three environmental

variable models were used to predict B. tabaci population, a fairly good R2 value; low C (p)

value and low RMSE value obtained indicating the fitness of the model.

Table 4.28: Summary of stepwise regression model developed to predict B. tabaci

population with respect to environmental factors on five tomato

varieties/lines during two years

Environmental parameters R2 Adj. R2 C (p) RMSE Pr > F

Big Beef 0.94 0.93 1.537 0.644

Minimum temperature (°C) 0.019*

Relative humidity (%) 0.045*

Caldera 0.93 0.92 2.099 0.645

Minimum temperature (°C) 0.015*

Relative humidity (%) 0.003*

Sitara-TS-101 0.91 0.89 3.049 0.711

Minimum temperature (°C) 0.015*

Relative humidity (%) 0.036*

014276 0.94 0.91 3.429 0.638

Maximum temperature (°C) 0.234

Minimum temperature (°C) 0.004*

Relative humidity (%) 0.033*

Salma 0.90 0.88 2.661 0.702

Minimum temperature (°C) 0.003*

Relative humidity (%) 0.029*

* = Significant at P < 0.05

Page 92: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

4.11.3. Evaluation of model by comparing the observed and predicted data

Second step of model evaluation was completed by comparing observed and

predicted data. The criteria of percent error and root mean square error (RMSE) values were

used to evaluate the predictions of the model. Model efficiency is considered good if

predictions of the model having percent error and RMSE ~ ± 20. In present studies, most of

predictions obtained using two years model on five genotypes, showed percent error ~ ± 20

(Table 4.29). Average RMSE of total predictions (180) during two years on five genotypes

was low i.e. less than ± 20 (Table 4.28).

The environmental variables minimum temperature and relative humidity were

epidemiologically important in the development of B. tabaci population on five tomato

varieties/lines. These were subjected to regression analysis and for each variety model

equations were developed. The B. tabaci population values predicted by these single variety

models were in close conformity with observed values recorded on five tomato varieties/lines

viz. Big Beef, Caldera, Sitara-TS-101, 014276 and Salma.

4.11.4. Graphical representation of B. tabaci population predictive model based on two

years data

The graphs of normal probability plot and disease versus fit, best explained the two

years full model (Fig. 4.14). The probability plots are frequently recommended for assessing

the goodness of fit of a hypothesized distribution and are often used as an informal means of

assessing the non-normality of a set of data (Johnson and Wichern, 1982).

The normal probability plot for the two years full model showed that most of the data

points were placed on the reference line whereas only few data points both at the lower side

and at the higher side deviate from the reference line affecting the normal distribution of data

points; it could be the cause of an error in the regression model. Residuals are estimates of

experimental error obtained by subtracting the observed responses from the predicted

responses. Residuals can be considered as the elements of variation unexplained by the fitted

model. The purpose of this dot plot is to provide an indication of the distribution of the

residuals. The two years model showed that most of the data points were more or less

distributed uniformly around the reference line indicating a better fit of the regression model.

Only few data points were not very closely distributed on the reference line leading to the

addition of an error in the regression model.

Page 93: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Table 4.29: Multiple regression equations based on environmental conditions and

predicted B. tabaci population values during two years

Regression equations of B. tabaci population

Y = bo + b1X1 + b2X2 + b3X3……..

Observed Predicted %Error

Big Beef = -0.48613+ 0.33974X1 – 0.12343X2

(X1=Minimum temperature, X2= Relative Humidity) 3.60 3.59 0.28

1.30 1.27 2.31

5.40 5.06 6.30

3.60 3.05 15.21

Caldera = -0.41908+ 0.34116X1 – 0.12116X2

(X1=Minimum temperature, X2= Relative Humidity) 1.40 1.39 0.71

3.90 3.83 1.79

5.60 5.21 6.96

3.80 3.26 14.21

Sitara-TS-101 = 0.05899+ 0.33260X1 – 0.12026X2

(X1=Minimum temperature, X2= Relative Humidity) 1.50 1.46 2.67

4.50 4.16 8.17

5.90 5.43 7.97

4.20 3.58 14.76

014276 = -9.05576+ 0.27130X1+0.22468X2-0.09080X3

(X1= Maximum temperature, X2= Minimum temperature,

X3= Relative humidity) 6.80 6.75 0.74

5.90 5.51 7.07

1.90 1.73 8.95

4.30 3.77 12.33

Salma = 0.72258+ 0.30907X1- 0.10931X2

(X1= Minimum temperature, X2= relative humidity) 2.20 2.15 2.73

7.00 6.92 1.14

6.00 5.77 3.83

5.20 4.68 11.11

Page 94: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Fig. 4.14: Normal probability plot and residual versus fit for the model of 2012-2013

4.12. Management

4.12. Evaluation of different treatments against TLCVD incidence during two years

(2012 and 2013)

4.12.1. Analysis of variance for TLCVD management during the years 2012 and 2013

The individual effect of year, spray, variety and treatment was significant for disease

incidence (Table 4.30). The two way interactions of spray with year, variety with year,

treatment with year and variety with spray were significant; whereas the two way

interactions of variety with treatment and spray with treatment were not significant. The

three way interaction between variety, spray and year was significant. Three way

interactions between variety, spray and treatment; variety, treatment and year; spray,

treatment and year were not significant. The four way interaction of variety with spray,

treatment and year was also non-significant.

4.12.2. Comparisons of different treatments against TLCVD incidence

All the treatments were significantly effective in reducing TLCVD incidence

compared to untreated control. Comparative efficacy of all treatments was significantly

different from each other. Imidacloprid was the most effective in reducing TLCVD incidence

as compared to control followed by acetamiprid, neem extract, salicylic acid, classic (Zn and

Boron solution) and eucalyptus extract (Table 4.31).

Page 95: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Table 4.30: ANOVA for TLCVD management during 2012 and 2013

Source DF SS MS F-value P-value

Replication 2 78.13 39.11

Year 1 230.91 230.91 624.08 0.002*

Spray 2 340.92 170.46 460.71 0.001*

Variety 4 65958.92 16489.73 44566.84 0.001*

Treatment 6 8221.93 1370.32 3703.57 0.001*

Spray*Year 2 2.74 1.37 3.71 0.003*

Variety*Year 4 431.32 107.83 291.43 0.001*

Treatment*Year 6 57.22 9.54 25.78 0.034*

Variety*Spray 8 26.23 3.28 8.86 0.001*

Variety*Treatment 24 286.42 11.93 32.25 0.214NS

Spray*Treatment 12 13.45 1.12 3.03 0.061NS

Variety*Spray*Year 8 4.22 0.53 0.37 0.014*

Variety*Spray*Treatment 48 25.83 0.54 1.45 0.063NS

Variety*Treatment*Year 24 115.56 4.82 13.01 0.085NS

Spray*Treatment*Year 12 7.54 0.63 1.69 0.076NS

Variety*Spray*Treatment*Year 48 11.43 0.24 0.64 0.073NS

Error 418 155.92 0.37

Total 629

*Significant at P<0.05 NS= Non-significant

Table 4.31: Comparisons of different treatments against TLCVD incidence

Sr. No. Treatments Disease incidence (%)

T1 Imidacloprid 11.34 g

T2 Acetamiprid 16.47 f

T3 Classic (Zn and Boron) 26.71 c

T4 Salicylic acid 23.52 d

T5 Neem extract 20.16 e

T6 Eucalyptus Extract 28.18 b

T7 Control 44.15 a*

*Means with similar letters in a column are not significantly different at P = 0.05

LSD=0.16

Page 96: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

4.12.3. Comparison of TLCVD incidence with spray and year

Three sprays were applied for the management of TLCVD during two years (2012 and

2013). There was significant difference in TLCVD incidence after each spray during 2012 and

2013 (Table. 4.32). After first spray, 38.65% disease incidence was recorded which reduced to

17.25% after third spray during 2012, while disease incidence reduced from 36.03% to

17.41% after first and third spray, respectively during 2013.

Table 4.32: Comparisons of TLCVD incidence with spray and year

Sprays TLCVD incidence (%)

2012 2013

Ist Spray 38.65 a 36.03 a

2nd Spray 24.73 b 27.21 b

3rd Spray 17.25 c 17.41 c

*Means with similar letters in a column are not significantly different at P = 0.05 LSD=0.17

4.12.4. Comparisons of treatments and years against TLCVD incidence

All the treatments were effective in reducing TLCVD incidence compared to untreated

control during the years 2012 and 2013 (Table 4.33). In 2012 all the treatments showed

significantly different results in reducing TLCVD incidence while in 2013 salicylic acid and

neem extract were not significantly different from each other in reducing the TLCVD

incidence. In 2012, the efficacy of imidacloprid and salicylic acid against TLCVD incidence

was significantly different from their respective treatments in 2013. In 2012 three treatments

i.e. acetamiprid, classic (Zn and Boron solution) and neem extract were not significantly

different from their respective treatments in the year 2013. During both years (2012 and 2013)

imidacloprid was the most effective in reducing TLCVD incidence as compared to other

treatments and control.

4.12.5. Comparisons of TLCVD incidence with variety and spray

The mean TLCVD incidence significantly reduced in all genotypes i.e., Carmen, Po-

02, Roker, Uovo Roseo and Lyp#1 in first, second and third sprays (Table 4.34). In first

spray, three genotypes i.e., Po-02, Uovo Roseo and Lyp#1 had significant difference with

respect to disease incidence while Carmen and Roker showed non-significant difference. All

the genotypes showed significant difference of TLCVD incidence in second spray. In third

Page 97: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

spray, only Carmen showed significant difference as compared to all other varieties/lines,

while the disease incidence was non-significant in Po-02 and Uovo Roseo; Roker and Lyp#1.

Table 4.33: Comparison of treatments and years against TLCVD incidence

Serial No. Treatments

2012 2013

Disease incidence

(%)

Disease incidence

(%)

T1 Imidacloprid 13.83 h 11.85 i

T2 Acetamiprid 16.34 g 16.02 g

T3 Classic (Zn and

Boron)

21.24 d 20.97 d

T4 Salicylic acid 19.42 e 18.26 f

T5 Neem extract 18.12 f 17.94 f

T6 Eucalyptus Extract 24.23 c 23.71 c

T7 Control 49.09 b 54.21 a

LSD 1.03 1.32

* Means with similar letters in a column are not significantly different at P =0.05

Table 4.34: Comparisons of TLCVD incidence with variety and spray during two years

TLCVD incidence (%)

Varieties/lines 1st Spray 2nd Spray 3rd Spray

Carmen 22.13 e 13.72 hij 5.46 lm

Po-02 53.67 a 28.15 de 14.79 hi

Roker 22.19 e 15.36 h 9.33 kl

Uovo Roseo 47.55 b 31.83 c 14.99 gh

Lyp#1 27.94 de 18.19 g 9.46 k

*Means with similar letters in a row and column are not significantly different at P = 0.05

LSD=0.26

4.12.6. Comparisons of TLCVD incidence with variety, spray and year

The TLCVD incidence significantly reduced in all genotypes i.e., Carmen, Po-02,

Roker, Uovo Roseo and Lyp#1 in first, second and third sprays during two years 2012 and

2013 (Table 4.35). All genotypes had significant difference in disease incidence in third

Page 98: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

spray with respect to first and second sprays during 2012 and 2013. In first spray all

genotypes showed significant difference in disease incidence during 2012 and 2013. In

second and third sprays, three genotypes i.e. Po-02, Uovo Roseo and Lyp#1 showed

significant difference with respect to disease incidence while two genotypes Carmen and

Roker showed non-significant difference with each other during the year 2012. All the

genotypes showed significant difference in disease incidence in second and third sprays during

the year 2013.

Table 4.35: Comparisons of TLCVD incidence with variety, spray and year

Varieties/lines

2012 2013

1st Spray 2nd Spray 3rd Spray 1st Spray 2nd Spray 3rd Spray

Carmen 28.71 mn 27.71 o 26.96 p 27.66 o 26.89 p 26.10 q

Po-02 47.73 f 47.02 g 46.26 h 47.37 f 46.65 g 45.73 i

Roker 29.95 l 27.86 o 27.26 p 29.93 l 28.52 mn 27.66 o

Uovo Roseo 50.95 b 50.45 c 49.63 d 50.36 c 49.85 d 48.82 e

Lyp#1 30.58 k 28.82 m 28.38 n 25.69 r 24.63 s 24.22 t

*Similar letters in a row and column showing significantly different values at P =0.05

LSD=0.37

4.13. Analysis of variance for B. tabaci management during 2012 and 2013

The individual effect of year, spray, variety and treatment was significant against B.

tabaci population (Table 4.36). The two way interactions of spray with year, variety with

year, treatment with year and variety with spray were significant; whereas the interaction of

variety with treatment and spray with treatment were non-significant. The three way

interaction between variety, spray and year was significant whereas the interaction of

variety with spray and treatment, variety with treatment and year, spray with treatment and

year were non-significant. The four way interaction of variety with spray, treatment and year

was also not significant.

4.13.1. Comparisons of different treatments against B. tabaci population

All the treatments were significantly effective in reducing B. tabaci population

compared to untreated control during 2012 and 2013 (Table 4.37). Comparative efficacy of

all treatments was significantly different from each other. Imidacloprid was the most

Page 99: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

effective in reducing B. tabaci population as compared to control followed by acetamiprid,

neem extract, salicylic acid, classic (Zn and Boron solution) and eucalyptus extract.

Table 4.36: ANOVA for B. tabaci population during two years (2012 and 2013)

Source DF SS MS F-value P-value

Replication 2 3.52 1.76

Year 1 0.14 0.14 73.13 0.002*

Spray 2 248.94 124.47 62235.11 0.001*

Variety 4 84.48 21.12 10560.21 0.001*

Treatment 6 108.19 18.03 9015.83 0.001*

Spray*Year 2 1.24 0.62 310.63 0.003*

Variety*Year 4 2.76 0.69 345.11 0.001*

Treatment*Year 6 2.61 0.44 220.54 0.001*

Variety*Spray 8 0.38 0.05 25.62 0.001*

Variety*Treatment 24 2.35 0.09 45.62 0.331NS

Spray*Treatment 12 32.43 2.71 1355.27 0.087NS

Variety*Spray*Year 8 6.86 0.86 430.75 0.014*

Variety*Spray*Treatment 48 0.05 0.001 0.54 0.053NS

Variety*Treatment*Year 24 8.35 0.35 175.95 0.074NS

Spray*Treatment*Year 12 3.87 0.32 160.25 0.076NS

Variety*Spray*Treatment*Year 48 1.80 0.04 20.24 0.073NS

Error 418 0.80 0.002

Total 629

*Significant at P<0.05 NS=Non-significant

Table. 4.37: Comparisons of different treatments against B. tabaci population during

two years

Serial No. Treatments B. tabaci population

T1 Imidacloprid 1.04 g

T2 Acetamiprid 1.17 f

T3 Classic (Zn and Boron) 3.72 c

T4 Salicylic acid 2.95 d

T5 Neem extract 2.01 e

T6 Eucalyptus Extract 4.86 b

T7 Control 9.69 a*

*Means with similar letters in a column are not significantly different at P = 0.05

LSD = 0.018

Page 100: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

4.13.2. Comparison of B. tabaci population with spray and year

Three sprays were applied for the management of B. tabaci during two years (2012 and

2013). There was significant difference in B. tabaci population after each spray during 2012

and 2013 (Table. 4.38). After first spray, B. tabaci population was recorded 3.78 which

reduced to 1.25 after third spray during 2012, while B. tabaci population reduced from 3.75 to

1.41 after first and third spray, respectively during 2013.

Table 4.38: Comparisons of B. tabaci with spray and year

Sprays B. tabaci population

2012 2013

Ist Spray 3.78 a 3.75 a

2nd Spray 2.73 b 2.84 b

3rd Spray 1.25 c 1.41 c

*Means with similar letters in a column are not significantly different at P =0.05 LSD=0.013

4.13.3. Comparison of treatments and years against B. tabaci population

All the treatments were effective in reducing B. tabaci population compared to

untreated control during the years 2012 and 2013 (Table 4.39). In 2012, all the treatments

showed significantly different results in reducing B. tabaci population while in 2013 salicylic

acid and neem extract were not significantly different from each other in reducing the B.

tabaci population as compared to control. In 2012, three treatments imidacloprid, classic (Zn

and Boron solution) and eucalyptus extract showed significantly different results as compared

to their respective treatments in 2013. In 2012, three treatments i.e. acetamiprid, salicylic acid

and neem extract were not significantly different from their respective treatments in the year

2013. During both years (2012 and 2013) imidacloprid was the most effective in reducing B.

tabaci population as compared to other treatments and control.

4.13.4. Comparisons of B. tabaci population with variety and spray

The mean B. tabaci population significantly reduced in all the genotypes i.e.,

Carmen, Po-02, Roker, Uovo Roseo and Lyp#1 in first, second and third sprays (Table 4.40).

In first spray, three genotypes i.e., Po-02, Uovo Roseo and Lyp#1 had significant difference

in B. tabaci population while Carmen and Roker showed non-significant difference. All the

genotypes showed significant difference of B. tabaci population in second spray except

Roker and Lyp#1 which showed non-significant difference with each other. In third spray,

Page 101: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

all genotypes (Carmen, Po-02, Roker, Uovo Roseo and Lyp#1) genotype showed significant

difference in reducing B. tabaci population.

Table 4.39: Comparison of treatments and years against B. tabaci population

Serial No. Treatments

2012 2013

Mean B. tabaci

population

Mean B. tabaci

population

T1 Imidacloprid 1.28 i 1.07 j

T2 Acetamiprid 1.78 h 1.79 h

T3 Classic (Zn and

Boron)

4.87 d 4.14 e

T4 Salicylic acid 3.18 f 3.16 f

T5 Neem extract 3.06 g 3.13 g

T6 Eucalyptus Extract 6.91 b 5.89 c

T7 Control 10.71 a 10.69 a

LSD 0.031 0.032

*Means with similar letters in a column are not significantly different at P = 0.05

Table 4.40: Comparisons of B. tabaci population with variety and spray

Mean B. tabaci population

Varieties/lines 1st Spray 2nd Spray 3rd Spray

Carmen 2.94 e 2.32 m 1.62 q

Po-02 3.95 a 3.39 c 2.72 k

Roker 2.97 e 2.52 l 1.77 p

Uovo Roseo 3.48 b 2.86 f 2.18 n

Lyp#1 3.22 d 2.51 l 1.87 o

*Means with similar letters in a row and column are not significantly different at P = 0.05

LSD=0.03

4.13.5. Comparisons of B. tabaci population with variety, spray and year

The mean B. tabaci population significantly reduced in all genotypes i.e., Carmen,

Po-02, Roker, Uovo Roseo and Lyp#1 in first, second and third sprays during two years

2012 and 2013 (Table 4.41). All genotypes had significant difference in mean B. tabaci

population in third spray with respect to first and second sprays during 2012 and 2013. In

Page 102: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

first spray all genotypes showed significant difference in mean B. tabaci population during

2012 and 2013. In second spray all the genotypes i.e. Carmen, Po-02, Roker, Uovo Roseo

and Lyp#1 showed significant difference in B. tabaci population during the year 2012 and

2013. All the genotypes showed significant difference in mean B. tabaci population in third

spray during the year 2013 but Carmen and Lyp#1 showed non-significant difference in

mean B. tabaci population during 2012.

Table 4.41: Comparison of B. tabaci population with variety, spray and year

Varieties/lines 2012 2013

1st Spray 2nd Spray 3rd Spray 1st Spray 2nd Spray 3rd Spray

Carmen 2.99 g 2.33 m 1.63 q 2.91 h 2.30 m 1.61 q

Po-02 3.97 a 3.41 c 2.61 j 3.94 a 3.34 d 2.62 j

Roker 3.14 f 2.54 k 1.78 p 3.12 f 2.41 l 1.76 p

Uovo Roseo 3.49 b 2.88 h 2.18 n 3.42 c 2.75 i 2.17 n

Lyp#1 3.23 e 2.33 m 1.63 q 3.21 e 2.52 k 1.86 o

* Means with similar letters in a row and column are not significantly different at P = 0.05

LSD=0.043

Page 103: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

CHAPTER 5 DISCUSSION

Tomato leaf curl virus disease (TLCVD) is the most serious problem for tomato

production in the tropics and subtropics, mainly in South and Southeast Asia (Chakraborty,

2008). The susceptible germplasm, favorable environmental conditions and presence of

viruliferous whitefly contribute towards the wide spread outbreak of this disease (Habib et

al., 2007). Genetic resistance is probably the only durable and long lasting solution against

TLCVD and Bemisia tabaci which require long time period for its implication. The short

term solution to the problem would be the screening of tomato germplasm against TLCVD

for relative resistance/susceptibility (Ellis et al., 2014).

Twenty seven varieties/lines were evaluated to find out resistant source against

TLCVD. Eight varieties/lines (Naqeeb, Pakit, Nagina, Riogrande, 09080, Roma, 09091 and

Nuyt-04-11) were found to be resistant against TLCVD. Six varieties/lines were categorized

as moderately resistant and four as moderately susceptible. Nine varieties/lines were found to

be susceptible and highly susceptible against TLCVD incidence. The resistance and tolerance

of different tomato varieties were estimated by ratio of infected plants, virus titer and

symptom intensity. There was a positive relationship between virus titer and symptom

severity (Rubio et al., 2003). These results are in line with (Camara et al., 2013) who

screened forty one tomato varieties against TYLCV in order to obtain stable and durable

resistances. Results showed that there were 12 resistant, 16 tolerant and 8 susceptible

varieties. Gaikwad et al., (2009) evaluated sixty tomato accessions against TLCVD under

natural conditions followed by artificial screening under glasshouse through whitefly and

grafting. The resistant reaction was confirmed by only three lines viz. 58-11-1-1, LCT-8-5

and 115-1-8-1. After studying the stress responses Moshe et al., (2012) reported that

susceptible plants were rich in reactive oxygen species (ROS) than resistant ones and

chemical components of tomato leaves (Montasser et al., 2012) particularly chlorophyll,

lipids, fatty acids, reducing sugars and proteins decreased in diseased leaves due to which

they could not sustain viral infection.

None of the screened varieties/lines was found to be highly resistant against TLCVD.

This is because of the low natural resistance in domesticated varieties of tomato as compared

to wild species. This result can be strengthened by the findings of various workers, after

Page 104: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

screening of one hundred and sixty tomato cultivars, only two wild species Lycopersicon

hirsutum (LA 1223) and Lycopersicon hirsutum (LA 1353) were immune to TLCVD

(Ragupathi and Narayanaswamy, 2000). Domestic varieties were found more susceptible to

TYLCV infection as compared to wild accessions after a large scale screening in the United

Arab Emirates (Hassan et al., 1991). Based on the phenotypic and molecular screening of

thirty tomato cultivars, no accession showed complete resistance to TYLCV (Osei et al.,

2012). Different tomato lines were checked for viral DNA accumulation by alkaline transfer

and dot spot hybridization. Results showed that tolerant lines contained 10-50% less DNA as

compared to susceptible ones (Rom et al., 1993). One hundred and thirty four domesticated

accessions and six wild tomato lines were screened against TYLCV based on symptom

development and DNA amplification. None of the varieties was resistant to TYLCV in

domesticated tomato while all six lines of wild species were resistant (Azizi et al., 2008).

Advanced resistant breeding lines were developed after extensive screening of wild tomato

species because all the domestic varieties were found susceptible to TYLCV (Pilowsky and

Cohen, 1990). Virus accumulation was very low in tomato lines developed by introgression

from L. chilense as compared to hybrids ARO-8479 and HA-3108 (Gomez et al., 2004).

AUDPC was used for the measurement of the disease because it reflects the disease

progress throughout the whole growing season rather than the current status of the disease as

in case of disease incidence measurements. Single incidence data do not capture changes

caused by the environmental conditions. Low AUDPC values appeared as the result of host

resistance and unavailability of the favorable conditions for the pathogen. The age of the host

plant and planting dates also played a critical role in the overall response of the host.

Environmental conditions conducive for TLCVD development and B. tabaci

population density were determined. The overall correlation of temperatures (maximum and

minimum) with B. tabaci population and TLCVD was positive while the relationship of

relative humidity was negative with B. tabaci and TLCVD. These results were according to

Rahman et al., (2006) findings that the disease incidence and vector population increased

with increase in temperature and decreased with increase in relative humidity because there

was a significantly positive correlation between number of whiteflies and TYLCV

transmission in the tomato field. Epidemiological studies showed significant linear

relationship (Y = 0.74x + 23.24, R2

= 0.61) between the B. tabaci population and TYLCVD

Page 105: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

incidence in the field. The whitefly population was positively correlated with temperature

and negatively with relative humidity (Aktar et al., 2008). At higher temperatures, the

increase in disease incidence was due to the reduced expression of resistance genes and

inhibition of defense responses (Wang et al., 2009). Defense responses were activated by

SNC1 gene at 22°C but not at 28°C (Yang and Hua, 2004).

TLCVD incidence and whitefly population was high during the months of high

temperature and low rainfall and low relative humidity. These results are strongly supported

by the findings of Polizzi and Asero (1993) who observed more TYLCVD incidence in

August as compared to October because of decrease in temperature. Nitzany (1975) reported

that TYLCVD appeared in epidemic form during the months with relative humidity less than

60% and mean maximum temperature of 30°C because maximum temperature was

significantly correlated with whitefly density. Kumhawat et al., (2000) found a good

correlation between whitefly populations and TYLCVD incidence at higher temperatures. B.

tabaci population increased at 25-30°C due to high oviposition rates which decreased below

20°C (Gerling et al., 1986). The temperatures of 25°C and 30°C were found to be the most

favorable for the development of egg and nymph stages of B. tabaci (Darwish et al., 2000).

Mean development time from egg to adult whitefly was 20 days at 25-30°C, 37 days at 20°C

(Gonzalez and Gallardo, 1999) and 56 days at 17°C. Likewise, the optimum temperature for

juvenile development was 32.5°C (Bonato et al., 2007).

The co-efficient of correlation (r) between TLCVD and environmental conditions

(maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity) were observed as 0.85, 0.92 and

0.87, respectively. The values of correlation coefficient between B. tabaci population and

environmental conditions (maximum temperature, minimum temperature and relative

humidity) were observed as 0.91, 0.85 and 0.85, respectively. The buildup of whitefly

population and okra yellow vein mosaic virus disease (OYVMVD) incidence were

significantly correlated with temperatures (maximum and minimum) and relative humidity

(Ali et al., 2005a). Hot weather with little or no rainfall was conducive for OYVMV disease

development and also for multiplication of B. tabaci (Singh, 1990).

Conducive environmental conditions for B. tabaci and TLCVD development were

characterized on five tomato genotypes. The maximum temperature (32-37°C), minimum

temperature (22-29°C) and relative humidity (27-51%) were determined as critical ranges for

Page 106: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

whitefly population and disease incidence. These results corroborated with those of Bishnoi

et al., (1996) who found the optimum temperature (20-24°C) and relative humidity (46-60%)

ranged for the build-up of whitefly population, respectively. The effect of environmental

factors was also studied on the TLCV disease incidence in different tomato cultivars in India.

It was found that high temperature and humidity increased TLCV disease incidence in the

plants with the maximum infection was obtained at 25°C and 79.73% relative humidity (Rai

et al., 2001). A linear relationship was obtained between weekly air temperature, i.e.,

maximum and minimum air temperature of 33-45°C and 25-30°C, respectively, relative

humidity (70-80%), wind speed (6-12km/hour) for CLCuVD development (Khan et al.,

1998). Rainfall and wind speed showed non-significant relationship with B. tabaci

population and TLCVD incidence on all five varieties/lines. Yassin (1975) reported the

negative correlation between TLCV incidence and wind direction.

As plant diseases cause huge economic, ecological, health and social problems

around the world, it is desirable to describe the disease dynamics by using mathematical

models for its sustainable management (Medina et al., 2009). The temporal and spatial

patterns of plant disease epidemics are jointly determined by the pathosystem characteristics

and environmental conditions. Such spatio-temporal dynamics is understood via

mathematical and statistical modeling (Maanen and Xu, 2003). TLCVD predictive model

statistically justified (R2=0.85) at P<0.05, was developed to predict the probable attack of

TLCV under a set of environmental conditions on five susceptible and highly susceptible

varieties/lines. The model with good co-efficient of determination value explained maximum

(85%) disease development. The observed and predicted mean disease incidence values were

not so different in five varieties/lines. A vector (B. tabaci) predictive model was developed to

predict the buildup of B. tabaci population during two years. The environmental variables

explained 92% of the variability in whitefly population. Both models were compared and

found non-significant, indicating close association with one another for the prediction of

TLCVD incidence and B. tabaci population. Pethybridge and Madden (2003) developed

disease predictive models for the management of vector transmitted viral diseases. Holt et al.,

(1999) found the varietal resistance and insecticides application as suitable management

strategies for TLCVD after the analysis of epidemiological model. A disease predictive

model for leaf rust severity based upon three environmental variables (minimum soil

Page 107: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

temperature, minimum air temperature and rainfall) explained 72% variability in disease

development with lowest Cp (1.89), and minimum MSE (35) (Khan, 1994).

It was found that after stepwise regression analysis that the temperatures (maximum

and minimum), relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed significantly affected the B. tabaci

population. The results of above mentioned study were similar to that of (Khan et al., 2006a)

who described significant influence of environmental variables on whitefly population and

MYMV disease severity after the stepwise regression analysis. A similar relationship of

environmental variables (minimum temperature and evening relative humidity) was found for

the prediction of leaf rust disease (Khan et al., 2006b). A disease predictive model was

developed for the management of tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) and its vector thrips,

based upon weather factors in tobacco. The disease incidence was affected by environmental

conditions and thrips activity in summer and spring seasons (Chappel et al., 2013).

Cultivation of resistant varieties is the most economical method to manage the disease

(Bosch et al., 2006). But when the disease appears suddenly and at a very rapid rate in the

field, farmers are left with no option except to spray the crop with some effective chemicals

(Pal and Gardener, 2006). Different insecticides, plant extracts and nutrients were applied for

the management of TLCV disease and insect vector B. tabaci. All the six treatments reduced

TLCVD incidence and B. tabaci population significantly compared to untreated control.

Among insecticides, imidacloprid was the most effective to manage the B. tabaci population

and indirectly TLCVD incidence followed by acetamiprid in that order. The imidacloprid and

acetamiprid being the member of neonicotinoids, bind to the acetylcholine receptors

(AChRs) in the CNS of insects (Zhang et al., 2000). Neonicotinoids mimic acetylcholine and

induce abnormal excitement in the insect by disturbing the systematic synaptic transmission.

Subsequently, the insect undergoes excitation and paralysis, followed by death.

Neonicotinoids are effective on contact and through stomach action (Lind et al., 1999). The

efficacy of neonicotinoids may be the result of translaminar movement that allows the

insecticide to control pests on both sides of the leaves because aphids and whiteflies feed

from loweside of leaves (Natwick, 2001; Parrish et al., 2001). Bacci et al., (2007) obtained

significant control of whiteflies and other sucking insects by the use of chloronicotinyls or

neonicotinoids (imidacloprid, acetamiprid, nitenpyram, and thiamethoxam). Ali et al.,

(2005b) checked the effects of different insecticides against nymphs and adult whitefly.

Page 108: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Buprofezin was found effective against nymphs while acetamiprid, diafenthiuron and

imidacloprid were effective against the whitefly adults. Confidor (imidacloprid) and

Megamos (acetamaprid) caused significant mortality of whitefly at field recommended dose

as compared with other insecticides (Amjad et al., 2009). Acetamaprid and imidacloprid

gave the significant insecticidal performance against whitefly population than bio-control

agents (Abbas et al., 2012).

Neonicotinoids have low hydrophobicity and transport acropetally in the xylem due

to their excellent systemic and translaminar activities (Westwood et al., 1998). Imidacloprid

was used for indirectly controlling TYLCV in tomato. In three seasons, the mean incidence

of TYLCV was 42.7% in untreated plots as compared with 15.7% in treated plots. Higher

yields were recorded from treated plots and the yields decreased with decrease in the rate of

insecticide application (Ahmed et al., 2001). The effect of admire (imidacloprid 0.1%) on the

growth and yield of TYLCV infected tomato plants was significant as compared to cymbush

(cypermethrin 0.1%) (Aktar et al., 2008).

Although chemical control is easy, direct and rapid action to solve pest and disease

problems but continuous dependence on pesticides has contributed towards environmental

pollution and degradation (Singh and Bhat, 2003). Furthermore, chemical control is

expensive (Palumbo et al., 2001) and has become less effective due to the development of

resistance against insecticide in insects (Siebert et al., 2012). Bio-pesticides can solve the

problems of insecticidal resistance and environmental hazards (Abou-Yousef et al., 2010). In

current experiment, the extract of A. indica (neem) was very effective against the B. tabaci

population and TLCVD incidence after the synthetic insecticides (imidacloprid and

acetamiprid) followed by the extract of E. globules (Eucalyptus). The insecticidal activity of

neem extracts is due to the components that are capable of influencing the physiology and

behaviour of a wide range of insects (Schaaf et al., 2000). Azadirachtin interacts with the

corpus cardiacum, thus blocking the activity of the molting hormone and acts as an insect

growth regulator, suppresses fecundity, molting, pupation and adult emergence (Ascher,

1993). Plant derived oil reduced the whitefly population up to 75% (Butler et al., 1991).

Neem oil at 2% and neem seed water extract at 3% significantly reduced the population of

whitefly, jassids and thrips on cotton that may be the cause of the anti-feedant and deterrent

effect of neem which had forced the insects to leave the locality or chronic effect of the neem

Page 109: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

compounds (Khattak et al., 2006). The eggs and nymphs of B. tabaci were managed by

aqueous and ethanolic extracts of Acalypha gaumeri, Annona squamosa, Carlowrightia

myriantha, Petiveria alliaceae, Trichilia arborea and A. indica (Cruz-Estrada et al., 2013).

Neem based pesticides azadirachtin, neema (liquid type) and neema-plus (pellet type) caused

significant reduction in the rates of female oviposition, subsequent egg hatch and adult

formation (Lynn et al., 2010). Melia seed kernel extract (MSKE) and neem seed kernel

extract (NSKE) at 5% concentration reduced 60.19 and 69.37% B. tabaci, respectively in

tomato crop (Senguttuvan et al., 2005). The aqueous extracts N. tobacum and E. globulus

caused 77.55 and 72.5% mortality of Lycoriella auripila larvae, respectively (Farsani et al.,

2011). Datura reduced the whitefly population significantly followed by neem oil, garlic and

eucalyptus in Bt cotton under field conditions (Khan et al., 2013).

As the TYLCV is transmitted by whitefly, the extracts of A. indica, A. sativum, P.

pinnata and S. macrophylla were used for their efficacy against TYLCVD incidence. Phyto-

pesticides significantly reduced the TYLCVD incidence and severity (Bhyan et al., 2007).

Neem seed kernel extracts and leaf extract of Pinus, Thuja, Araucaria, Cupressus and Cycas

proved effective in reducing the TLCV disease incidence, whitefly population and also in

increasing the yield (Ansari et al., 2007). Neem and eucalyptus extracts controlled the B.

tabaci as well as CLCuVD most effectively as compared to other plant extracts (Ali et al.,

2010). Eucalyptus extract manage the disturbed balance of production and scavenging of

active oxygen species under stress situations (Wan et al., 2012) by producing catalase (CAT),

peroxidase (POD) and superoxide dismutase (SOD) (Apel and Hirt, 2004).

Pathogenic attack destroys the physiology of the plants such as nutrient uptake,

assimilation, translocation from the root to shoot and utilization (Marschner, 1995). Nutrients

improve the plant health by regulating metabolic and cellular functions, which enable the

plant to tolerate the attack of sucking and chewing insects. The nutrients such as N, P, K, Zn

and B significantly reduced whitefly population in cotton (Gogi et al., 2012). Several nutrient

elements act as catalytically active cofactors in enzymes while others stabilize the proteins

structurally (Hansch and Mendel, 2009). Viral attack results in the production of reactive

oxygen species (ROS) and free radicals which leads to the inhibited plant growth and

development. Zinc protects the oxidation of cell components by reducing the production of

ROS and free radicals through interfering with membrane-bound NADPH oxidase (Cakmak,

Page 110: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

2000). Virus replication protein was inhibited to bind with replication origin by using

artificial zinc finger protein (AZP). Arabidopsis plants treated with AZP found highly

resistant against virus infection (Sera, 2005).

Boron may affect the physiology and biochemistry of the plants by strengthening the

cell wall and membrane through binding of apoplastic proteins to cis-hydroxyl groups and by

interfering with enzymatic reactions (Blevins and Leukaszewski, 1998). Dordas (2008)

conducted experiments to describe the role of different nutrients, such as nitrogen (N),

phosphorus (P), potassium (K), manganese (Mn), zinc (Zn), boron (B), chlorine (Cl) and

silicon (Si) in disease management. Plants with high N supplies reduced the infection

severity caused by facultative parasites. K decreased the susceptibility of host plants. Mn was

found effective as it has vital role in photosynthesis, lignin and phenol biosynthesis. B

reduced the severity of many diseases because it affects the cell wall structure, cell

membrane permeability and metabolism of phenolics or lignin against the biotic stresses

(Brown et al., 2002). The soil application of boron reduced the mungbean yellow mosaic

virus disease severity (Bimal and Ali, 2001). Pramanik and Ali (2001) reported that the

application of boron significantly reduced the severities of yellow mosaic and leaf crinkle

viruses in mungbean.

Plant defense responses are regulated by a complex network of signal molecules and

growth regulators. Resistance genes identifies the pathogen and start defense responses.

Salicylic acid (SA), jasmonic acid (JA), naphthalene acetic acid (NAA) and ethylene (ET)

mediates both specific as well as basal defense responses (Jalali et al., 2006). SA at 3%

concentration found best in reducing egg hatchability, adult emergence, adult whitefly

population and CLCuVD severity both in soil drenching and foliar sprays (Khan et al.,

2003). SA induced resistance against cucumber mosaic virus (CMV) in tobacco by inhibiting

the virus accumulation in inoculated tissues and its systemic movement virus from cell to cell

via a signal transduction pathway (Mayers et al., 2005).

The resistant varieties/lines of tomato identified in the present screening can further

be exploited as resistant sources against TLCVD, in breeding programmes for development

of resistant commercial cultivars after determining their genetics or these lines can be

released directly as commercial cultivars if these were found to possess other desirable

horticultural characters. Development of predictive models for TLCVD incidence and B.

Page 111: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

tabaci infestation would be helpful for the farmers regarding appropriate and timely

management. Disease predictive models help not only to decide about the curative and

preventive treatments but also the time and place of sowing. By evaluating the predictive

model it could be concluded that disease has set or just ready to set in and intervene the

management options accordingly. Nutrients enable the plants to withstand adverse conditions

by improving health and also help to increase yield and quality of the produce. Plant extracts

and salicylic acid could be used as eco-friendly approaches for the management of TLCVD

and B. tabaci.

Page 112: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

CHAPTER 6 SUMMARY

The essence of the research endeavors was to evaluate the tomato germplasm for the

source of resistance against tomato leaf curl virus disease (TLCVD) a serious threat to

successful tomato production. This disease is transmitted by whitefly Bemisia tabaci

Gennadius. The varieties/lines grouped on a 0-5 scale in terms of resistance/susceptibility

constituted a valuable source of germplasm which may be employed in breeding for genetic

resistance against TLCVD. Twenty seven tomato varieties/lines were screened against

TLCVD and B. tabaci during the year 2012 and 2013. None of the screened

varieties/advanced lines was found to be highly resistant against TLCVD and varied greatly

in response to disease incidence. Eight varieties/lines (Naqeeb, Pakit, Nagina, Riogrande,

09080, Roma, 09091 and Nuyt-04-11) were found to be resistant against TLCVD. Ten

cultivars (Carmen, Roker, Lyp#1, 09079, Nuyt-25-11, 09088, Uovo Roseo, Nuyt-9-11, Po-02

and 10113 were categorized as moderately resistant and moderately susceptible, respectively.

Nine cultivars (Salma, 014276, Sitara-TS-101, 10125, 10127, Libnan Arif, BL-1-176-

Riostone-1-1, Big Beef and Caldera) were found to be highly susceptible and susceptible

against TLCVD incidence during two years 2012 and 2013.

Environmental conditions conducive for TLCVD development and B. tabaci

population density were determined. A positively significant (P<0.05) correlation was found

among maximum and minimum temperature but negatively significant correlation was

observed among relative humidity and B. tabaci population and TLCVD incidence in case of

all five genotypes i.e., Big Beef, Caldera, Sitara-TS-101, 014276 and Salma. Rainfall and

wind speed showed non-significant relationship with B. tabaci population and TLCVD

incidence on all five varieties/lines. In year wise correlation, a significant (P<0.05) and

positive correlation was observed between temperature (maximum and minimum) and B.

tabaci population and TLCVD incidence during two years (2012 and 2013) while in case of

relative humidity significantly negative correlation was found during two years 2012 and

2013. The maximum value of correlation coefficient between TLCVD and significant

environmental variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature and relative

humidity) were observed as (r=0.85*) (r=0.92*) and (r=0.87*) respectively. The maximum

value of correlation coefficient between B. tabaci population and significant environmental

Page 113: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature and relative humidity) were

observed as (r=0.91*) (r=0.85*) and (r=0.85*) respectively.

A disease and vector predictive model based on 2 years epidemiological factors was

developed. TLCVD predictive model based on two years (2012 and 2013) data was

developed. Y= 0.532+ 0.053X1 + 0.97X2-0.081X3+0.15X4 R2= 0.85 where y = TLCVD, x1=

Maximum temperature, x2 = Minimum temperature, x3 = Relative humidity and x4 = rainfall.

Similarly, whitefly predictive model based on two years (2012 and 2013) data were

developed on same lines as was done for TLCVD. Y= -7.76+0.231X1+0.21X2-

0.092X3+0.11X4+0.086X5 R2= 0.92 where y = Whitefly, x1= Maximum temperature, x2 =

Minimum temperature, x3 = Relative humidity, x4 = Rainfall and x5 = Wind speed.

Disease predictive model explained 85% variability in TLCVD during two years

(2012 and 2013) while vector predictive models explained 92% variability in B. tabaci

population. The two models were found non-significant indicating close association with one

another. The major factors responsible for the attack of TLCVD were temperature and the

extent/intensity of whitefly prevalent at that time. The major factors identified for the attack

of whitefly were temperature and the relative humidity prevalent at that time.

Different pesticides/biopesticides were evaluated for management of insect vector

Bemisia tabaci and the disease. All the six treatments reduced B. tabaci population and

TLCVD incidence significantly compared to untreated control. Imidacloprid was the most

effective to manage the B. tabaci population. Acetamiprid was at number second and

Azadirachta indica (Neem) was at number third whereas Salicylic acid, Classic (Zn and

Boron) solution and Eucalyptus globules (Eucalyptus) were at number four, fifth and sixth

respectively in managing the B. tabaci population and TLCVD incidence.

Page 114: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

CONCLUSIONS

I. Disease predictive model for TLCVD incidence based on five environmental

variables i.e. maximum and minimum temperatures, relative humidity, rainfall and

wind speed explained 85 percent variability in disease development.

II. Predictive model for (whitefly) Bemisia tabaci population based on environmental

variables i.e. maximum and minimum temperatures, relative humidity, rainfall and

wind speed explained 92 percent variability in vector population development.

III. Maximum (35-44°C) and minimum temperatures (25-37°C), relative humidity (17-

51%), were found critical environmental ranges for TLCVD and B. tabaci

population during 2012 and 2010.

IV. Among five tomato varieties, Pakit and Naqeeb showed the most resistant

reaction against the disease.

V. Maximum and minimum temperature and relative humidity played most

significant role in the development of TLCVD and B. tabaci population during

two years.

VI. Correlation of environmental conditions with TLCVD and B. tabaci population

was found significant during two years.

VII. Models on five tomato varieties Salma, 014276, Sitara-TS-101, Caldera and Big

Beef respectively, were in close conformity with observed values of TLCVD

incidence during two years models.

VIII. All the treatments were significantly effective in reducing TLCVD incidence and

B. tabaci population compared to untreated control but Imidacloprid and

Acetamiprid were the most effective treatments in controlling TLCVD and B.

tabaci population.

Page 115: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

RECOMMENDATIONS

I. Continuous monitoring of egg, pseudo pupae and adult of vector (B. tabaci) would

be necessary for precise TLCVD prediction.

II. Environmental factors especially temperature and relative humidity would be used

in the development of a TLCV disease predictive model in future.

III. There must be installation of weather stations at major tomato growing areas of

Pakistan particularly in province Punjab, so that, environmental data may be made

available for establishing a future forecasting system.

IV. Local area environmental factors should be used for the development of a disease

predictive model to a specific area.

V. Many local area models should be integrated for the development of a Decision

Support System (DSS) at country level for the appropriate management of TLCVD.

VI. Spatio-temporal patterns of disease progress should be studied so that the

management options could be intervened accordingly.

VII. For the management of TLCVD, the use of nutrients (Zn and Boron solution),

salicylic acid and plant extracts would be helpful and environment friendly.

VIII. Treatments (preventive or curative) should be applied by taking into account the

current status of the disease.

IX. Prepare a management plan by integrating the environmental conditions.

Page 116: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

LITERATURE CITED

Abbas, Q., M.J. Arif, M.D. Gogi, S.K. Abbas and H. Karar. 2012. Performance of

imidacloprid, thiomethoxam, acetamaprid and a biocontrol agent (Chrysoperla

carnea) against whitefly, jassid and thrips on different cotton cultivars. World J. Zool.

7(2): 141-146.

Abou-Jawdah, Y., W.A. Shebaro and K.H. Soubra. 1995. Detection of tomato yellow leaf

curl geminivirus (TYLCV) by a digoxigenin-labelled DNA probe. Phytopathol.

Mediterr. 34: 52-57.

Abou-Jawdah, Y., K.H. Soubra and W.A. Shebaro. 1996. Evaluation of the reaction of

tomato genotypes to tomato yellow leaf curl geminivirus infection in Lebanon.

Phytopathol. Mediterr. 35: 91-99.

Abou-Yousef, H.M., F.S. Farghaly and H.M. Torkey. 2010. Insecticidal activity of some

plant extracts against some sap sucking insects under laboratory conditions. World J.

Agric. Sci. 6(4): 434-439.

Abouzid, A.M., Freitas, J. Astua, D.E. Purcifull, J.E. Polston, K.A. Beckham, W.E.

Crawford, M.A. Petersen, B. Peyser, C. Patte and E. Hiebert. 2002. Serological

studies using polyclonal antisera prepared against the viral coat protein of four

begomoviruses expressed in Escherichia coli. Plant Dis. 86: 1109-1114.

Abro, G.H., T.S. Syed, M.A. Unar and M.S. Zhang. 2004. Effect of application of a plant

growth regulator and micronutrients on insect pest infestation and yield components

of cotton. J. Entomol. 1(1): 12-16.

Ahmed, N.E., H.O. Kanan, Y. Sugimoto, Y.Q. Ma and S. Inanaga. 2001. Effect of

imidacloprid on incidence of tomato yellow leaf curl virus. Plant Dis. 85: 84-87.

Ahmed, S., M.S. Nisar, M.M. Shakir, M. imran and K. Iqbal. 2014. Comparative efficacy of

some neonicotinoids and traditional insecticides on sucking insect pests and their

natural enemies on Bt-121 cotton crop. J. Anim. Plant Sci. 24(2): 660-663.

Ajlan, A.M., G.A.M. Ghanem and K.S. Abdulsalam. 2007. Tomato yellow leaf curl virus

(TYLCV) in Saudi Arabia: Identification, partial characterization and virus-vector

relationship. Arab J. Biotech. 10(1): 179-192.

Page 117: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Aktar, M.M., M.S. Akhter

and A.M. Akanda. 2008. Impact of insecticides and organic oil

spray on the growth and yield of tomato under TYLCV infected condition.

Bangladesh Res. Publications J. 1(3): 199-205.

Ali, S., B.K. De, P.S. Nath, V.B. Yadav, L. Wangchu and S. Ali. 2002. Tomato leaf curl

virus disease on different tomato cultivars in the New alluvial zone of west Bengal

Environ. Ecol. 20: 908-911.

Ali, S., M.A. Khan, A. Habib, S. Rasheed and Y. Iftikhar. 2005a. Correlation of

environmental conditions with okra yellow vein mosaic virus and Bemisia tabaci

population density. Int. J. Agric. Biol. 7(1): 142-144.

Ali, M.A., R. Rehman, Y.H. Tatla and Z. Ali. 2005b. Evaluation of different insecticides for

the control of whitefly on cotton crop in Karor district Layyah. Pak. Entomol. 27(1):

5-8.

Ali, S., M.A. Khan, S.T. Sahi and M.U. Hassan. 2010. Evaluation of plant extracts and

salicylic acid against Bemisia tabaci and cotton leaf curl virus disease. Pak. J.

Phytopathol. 22(2): 98-100.

Almasi, M.A., M.A. Ojaghkandi, A. Hemmatabadi, F. Hamidi and S. Aghaei. 2013.

Development of colorimetric loop mediated isothermal amplification assay for rapid

detection of tomato yellow leaf curl virus. J. Plant Pathol. Microb. 4 (1): 153-158.

Al-Musa, A. 1982. Incidence, economic importance and control of tomato yellow leaf curl in

Jordan. Plant Dis. 66: 561-563.

Al-Refai, F.A.R.M., E.H.A. Al-Doghache and K.J. Hamade. 2007. Test the resistance of

some cultivars of tomato to tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV). Basrah J. Agric.

Sci. 20(2): 106.

Altieri, M.A. and C.I. Nicholls. 2003. Soil fertility management and insect pests:

harmonizing soil and plant health in agro-ecosystems. Soil Till. Res. 72: 203-211.

Amjad, M., M.H. Bashir, M. Afzal and M.A. Khan. 2009. Efficacy of some insecticides

against whitefly (Bemisia tabaci Genn.) infesting cotton under field conditions. Pak.

J. Life Soc. Sci. 7(2): 140-143.

Anfoka, G.H., M. Abhary and M.K. Nakhla. 2005. Molecular identification of species of the

tomato yellow leaf curl virus complex in Jordan. J. Plant Pathol. 87: 65-70.

Page 118: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Ansari, N.A., P. Madhvi, H.D. Tewari and J.P. Tewari. 2007. Management of tomato leaf

curl virus by gymnosperms, neem and insecticides. Ann. Plant Protect. Sci. 15(2):

429-433.

Apel, K. and H. Hirt. 2004. Reactive oxygen species: metabolism, oxidative stress and signal

transduction. Annu. Rev. Plant Biol. 55: 373-399.

Ascher, K.R.S. 1993. Non-conventional insecticidal effects of pesticides available from the

neem tree, Azadirachta indica. Arch. Insect Biochem. Physiol. 22: 433-449.

Ashfaq, M., M.A. Khan and T. Mukhtar. 2006. Antiviral activity of plant extracts and

chemicals against urdbean leaf crinkle virus (ULCV). Pak. J. Phytopathol. 18(2): 148-

155.

Atzmon, G., H. van Hoss and H. Czosnek. 1998. PCR amplification of tomato yellow leaf

curl virus (TYLCV) from squashes of plants and insect vectors: application to the

study of TYLCV acquisition and transmission. Eur. J. Plant Pathol. 104: 189-194.

Azizi, A., J. Mozaffari and M. Shamas. 2008. Phenotypic and molecular screening of tomato

germplasm for resistance to tomato yellow leaf curl virus. Iran. J. Biotech. 6: 5-8.

Bacci, L., A.L.B. Crespo, T.L. Galvan, E. Pereira, M.C. Picanco, G.A. Silva and M. Chediak.

2007. Toxicity of insecticides to the sweet potato whitefly (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae)

and its natural enemies. Pest Manage. Sci. 63: 699-706.

Banerjee, M.K. and Kalloo. 1987. Sources and inheritance of resistance to leaf curl virus in

Lycopersicon. Theoret. Appl. Genet. 73(5): 707-710.

Bedford, I.D., A. Kelly, G.K. Banks, R.W. Briddon, J.L. Cenis and P.G. Markham. 1998.

Solanum nigrum: an indigenous weed reservoir for a tomato yellow leaf curl

geminivirus in southern Spain. Eur. J. Plant Pathol. 104: 221-222.

Bellows, T.S., T.M. Perring, R.J. Gill and D.H. Headrick. 1994. Description of a species of

Bemisia (Homoptera: Aleyrodidae). Ann. Entomol. Soc. Am. 87: 195-206.

Beniwal, J., J. Sharma, A. Kumar. 2006. Relationship of cotton leaf curl virus with weather

parameters, whitefly population and disease incidence. Indian J. Virol. 17(2): 36.

Ber, R., N. Navot, D. Zamir, Y. Antignus, S. Cohen and H. Czosnek. 1990. Infection of

tomato yellow leaf curl virus: susceptibility to infection, symptom development and

accumulation of viral DNA. Arch. Virol. 112: 169-180.

Page 119: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Berlinger, M.J., R.A.J. Taylor, S.L. Mordechi, S. Shalhevet and I. Spharim. 2002. Efficiency

of insect exclusion screens for preventing whitefly transmission of tomato yellow leaf

curl virus of tomatoes in Israel. Bull. Entomol. Res. 92: 367-373.

Bethke, J.A., M.J. Blua and R.A. Redak. 2001. Effect of selected insecticides on

Homalodisca coagulata (Homoptera: Cicadellidae) and transmission of oleander leaf

scorch in a greenhouse study. J. Econ. Entomol. 94: 1031-1036.

Bezerra, M.A., M.V. De Oliveira and S.D. Vasconcelos. 2004. Does the presence of weeds

affect Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) infestation on tomato

plants in a semi arid Agro-ecosystem. Neotrop. Entomol. 33(6): 769-775.

Bhyan, S.B., M.A.H. Chowdhury, M.M. Alam and M.S. Ali. 2007. Incidence and severity of

tomato yellow leaf curl virus under phyto-pesticidal management. Int. J. Agric. Res.

2(7): 590.

Bimal, K.P. and Md. A. Ali. 2001. Cultural and nutritional management of winter mungbean.

Pak. J. Bio. Sci. 4(1): 59-62.

Bishnoi, O.P., M. Singh, V.U.M. Rao, P.D. Sharma, M. Singh and R. Niwaz. 1996.

Population dynamics of cotton pests in relation to weather parameters. Indian J.

Entomol. 58(2): 103-107.

Blevins, D.G. and K.M. Lukaszewski. 1998. Boron in plant structure and function. Annu.

Rev. Plant Physiol. Mol. Biol. 49:481-500.

Bonato, O., A. Lurette, C. Vidal and J. Fargues. 2007. Modeling temperature-dependent

bionomics of Bemisia tabaci (Q-biotype). Physiol. Entomol. 32: 50-55.

Bosch, F.V.D., G. Akudibilah, S. Seal and M. Jeger. 2006. Host resistance and evolutionary

response of plant viruses. J. Appl. Ecol. 43: 506-516.

Boykin, L.M., R.G. Shatters, R.C. Rosell, C.L. McKenzie, R.A. Bagnall, P.J. De Barro and

D.R. Frohlic. 2007. Global relationships of Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae)

revealed using Bayesian analysis of mitochondrial COI DNA sequences. Mol.

Phylogenet. Evol. 44: 1306-1319.

Brown, J.K. and J. Bird. 1992. Whitefly-transmitted geminiviruses and associated disorders

in American and Caribbean Basin. Plant Dis. 76: 220-225.

Brown, P.H., N. Bellaloui, M.A. Wimmer, E.S. Bassil, J. Ruiz, H. Hu, H. Pfeffer, F. Dannel

and V. Romheld. 2002. Boron in plant biology. Plant Biol. 4: 205-223.

Page 120: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Bucholz, A. and R. Nauen. 2001. Translocation and translaminar bio-availability of two

neonicotinoid insecticides after foliar application to cabbage and cotton. Pest.

Manage. Sci. 58: 10-16.

Butler, G.D.Jr., T.J. Henneberry and W.D. Hutchinson. 1986. Bemisia tabaci (Homoptera:

Aleyrodidae) on cotton: adult activity and cultivar oviposition preference. J. Econ.

Entomol. 79: 350-354.

Butler, G.D., S.N. Puri and T.A. Henneberry. 1991. Plant derived oils and detergent solutions

as control agents for Bemisia tabaci and Aphis gossypii on cotton. South-West.

Entomol. 16: 331-337.

Butler, G.D. and T.A. Henneberry. 1992. Effect of oil sprays on sweet potato whitefly and

phytotoxicity on cotton, watermelons squash and cucumbers. South-West. Entomol.

16: 63-72.

Byrne, D.N. and W.B. Miller. 1990. Carbohydrate and amino acid composition of phloem

sap and honeydew produced by Bemisia tabaci. J. Insect Physiol. 36(6): 433-439.

Cakmak, I. 2000. Possible roles of zinc in protecting plant cells from damage by reactive

oxygen species. New Phytol. 146: 185-205.

Camara, M., A.A. Mbaye, K. Noba, P.I. Samb, S. Diao and C. Cilas. 2013. Field screening of

tomato genotypes for resistance to tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) disease in

Senegal. Crop Prot. 44: 59-65.

Campos, Z.R., A.L.B. Junior, A.L. Lourenção and A.R. Campos. 2005. Cotton crop effects

on Bemisia tabaci (Genn.) biotype B (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) oviposition. Neotrop.

Entomol. 34: 823-827.

Chakraborty, S. 2008. Tomato leaf curl viruses from India (Geminiviridae). p. 124-133. In:

B.W.J. Mahy and M.H.V. Van Regenmortel (eds) Encyclopedia of virology. Oxford.

Channarayappa, C., V. Muniyappa, D. Schwegler-Berry and G. Shivashankar. 1992. Ultra

structural changes in tomato infected with tomato leaf curl virus; a whitefly-

transmitted geminivirus. Can. J. Bot. 70: 1747-1753.

Chappell, T.M., A.L.P. Beaudoin and G.G. Kennedy. 2013. Interacting virus abundance and

transmission intensity underlie tomato spotted wilt virus incidence: An example

weather based model for cultivated tobacco. PLoS ONE 8(8): 1-9.

Page 121: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Chattefuee, S. and A.S. Hadi. 2006. Regression analysis by example. p. 21-71. (Hoboken, New

Jersey) John Wiley and Sons, Inc. Publ. New York, USA.

Chiemsombat, P., A. Murayama and M. Ikegami. 1991. Tomato yellow leaf curl virus in

Thailand and tobacco leaf curl virus in Japan are serologically identical. Ann.

Phytopathol. Soc. Japan. 57: 595-597.

Chivasa, S., A.M. Murphy, M. Naylor and J.P. Carr. 1997. Salicylic acid interferes with

tobacco mosaic virus replication via a novel salicyl-hydroxamic acid-sensitive

mechanism. Plant Cell. 9: 547-557.

Clark, M.F. and A.N. Adams. 1977. Characteristics of the micro plate method of enzyme

linked immuno sorbant assay for the detection of plant viruses. J. Gen. Virol. 34: 475-

483.

Cohen, S. and I. Harpaz. 1964. Periodic, rather than continual acquisition of a new tomato

virus by its vector, the tobacco whitefly (Bemisia tabaci Gennadius). Entomol. Exp.

Appl. 7: 155-166.

Cohen, S. and F.E. Nitzany. 1966. Transmission and host range of the tomato yellow leaf

curl virus. Phytopath. 56: 1127-1131.

Cohen, S., E.G. Duffus and H. Liu. 1989. Acquisition, interference and retention of cucurbit

leaf curl viruses in whiteflies. Phytopath. 79: 109-113.

Cohen, S. and M. Lapidot. 2007. Appearance and expansion of TYLCV: A Historical Point

of View. P. 3-12. In: H. Czosnek (ed.) Tomato yellow leaf curl disease. Springer,

Dordrecht, The Netherlands.

Colvin, J., N. Nagaraju, C.M. Leguizamon, R.M. Govindappa, T.B.M. Reddy, S.A. Padmaja,

N. Joshi, P.M. Hanson, S.E. Seal and V. Muniyappa. 2012. Socio-economic and

scientific impact created by whitefly-transmitted, plant-virus disease resistant tomato

varieties in Southern India. J. Integ. Agric. 11(2): 337-345.

Costa, H.S. and J.K. Brown. 1991. Variation in biological characteristics and esterase

patterns among populations of Bemisia tabaci and the association of one population

with silver leaf symptom induction. Entomol. Exp. Appl. 61: 211-219.

Credi, R., L. Betti and A. Canova. 1989. Association of a geminivirus with a severe disease

of tomato in Sicily. Phytopathol. Mediterr. 28: 223-226.

Page 122: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Cruz-Estrada, A., M. Gamboa-Angulo, R. Borges-Argáez, and E. Ruiz-Sánchez. 2013.

Insecticidal effects of plant extracts on immature whitefly Bemisia tabaci Genn.

(Hemiptera: Aleyroideae). Electron. J. Biotech. 16(1): 1-9.

Czosnek, H., A. Kheyr-Pour, B. Gronenborn, E. Remetz, M. Zeidan, A. Altman, H.D.

Rabinowitch, S. Vidavsky, N. Kedar, Y. Gafni and D. Zamir. 1993. Replication of

tomato yellow leaf curl virus DNA in agro-inoculated leaf discs from various tomato

genotypes. Plant Mol. Biol. 22: 995-1005.

Czosnek, H. and H. Laterrot. 1997. A worldwide survey of tomato yellow leaf curl viruses.

Arch. Virol. 142: 1391-1406.

Czosnek, H., H. Ghanim, S. Morin, G. Rubinstein, V. Fridman and M. Zeidan. 2001.

Whiteflies: vectors and victims of geminiviruses. Adv. Virus Res. 56: 291-322.

Dalton, R. 2006. Whitefly infestation: the Christmas invasion. Nature. 433: 898-900.

Dan, Y., H. Yan, T. Munyikwa, J. Dong, Y. Zhang and C.L. Armstrong. 2006. Micro Tom: a

high throughput model transformation system for functional genomics. Plant Cell

Rep. 25: 432-441.

Darwish, Y.A., S.H. Mannaa and M.A.A. Rehman. 2000. Effect of constant temperature on

the development of egg and nymphal stages of the cotton whitefly, B. tabaci (Genn.)

(Homoptera; Aleyrodidae) and use of thermal requirements in determining its annual

generation number. Assiut. J. Agric. Sci. 31(1): 207-216.

De Barro, P.J. 2008. Bemisia tabaci, a top 100 invader. J. Insect Sci. 8: 16.

Delatte, H., A. Dalmon, D. Rist, I. Soustrade, G. Wuster, J.M. Lett, R.W. Goldbach, M.

Peterschmitt and B. Reynaud. 2003. Tomato yellow leaf curl virus can be acquired

and transmitted by Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) from tomato fruit. Plant Dis. 87:

1297-1300.

Delatte, H., H. Holota, B. Reynaud and J. Dintinger. 2006. Characterization of a quantitative

resistance to vector transmission of tomato yellow leaf curl virus in Lycopersicon

pimpinellifolium. Eur. J. Plant Pathol. 114: 245-253.

Deng, D., P.F. McGrath, D.J. Robinson and B.D. Harrison. 1994. Detection and

differentiation of whitefly-transmitted geminiviruses in plants and vector insects by

the polymerase chain reaction with degenerate primers. Ann. Appl. Biol. 125: 327-

336.

Page 123: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Diaz-Pendon, J.A., M.C. Canizares, E. Moriones, E.R. Bejarano, H. Czosnek and J. Navas-

Castillo. 2010. Tomato yellow leaf curl viruses: menage a trois between the virus

complex, the plant and the whitefly vector. Mol. Plant Pathol. 11(4): 441-450.

Dordas, C. and P.H. Brown. 2005. Boron deficiency affects cell viability, phenolic leakage

and oxidative burst in rose cell cultures. Plant Soil. 268: 293-301.

Dordas, C. 2008. Role of nutrients in controlling plant diseases in sustainable agriculture. A

review. Agron. Sustain. Dev. 28(1): 33-46.

Elbert, A. and R. Nauen. 2000. Resistance in Bemisia tabaci (Homoptera: Aleyrodidae) to

insecticides in southern Spain with special reference to neonicotinoids. Pest Manage.

Sci. 56: 60-64.

El-Dougdoug, N.K., S.A. Mahfouze, S.A. Ahmed, B.A. Othman and M.M. Hazaa. 2013.

Identification of biochemical and molecular markers in tomato yellow leaf curl virus

resistant tomato species. Sci. Agric. 2(2): 46-53.

Ellis, J.G., E.S. Lagudah, W. Spielmeyer and P.N. Dodds. 2014. The past, present and future

of breeding rust resistant wheat. Front. Plant Sci. 5: 641.

El-Monem, A.F.A., Kh. A. El-Dougdoug, I.A. Hamad, E.A. Ahmed and H.S.A. El-Kader.

2011. Identification and molecular characterization of tomato yellow leaf curl virus-

EG. Emir. J. Food Agric. 23(4): 355-367.

El-Naggar, J.B., N. El-Hoda and A. Zidan. 2013. Field evaluation of imidacloprid and

thiamethoxam against sucking insects and their side effects on soil fauna. J. Plant

Protect. Res. 53(4): 375-387.

El-Sayed, W. 2013. Field evaluation of plant extracts and certain insecticides against

Bemesia tabaci (Gennadius) on tomato plants and Myzus persicae (Sulzer) on pepper

plants. J. Appl. Sci. Res. 9(3): 2372-2377.

FAO. Statistical division database. 2011. www. faostat.fao.org.

Fancelli, M., J.D. Vendramim, R.T.S. Frighetto and A.L. Lourencao. 2005. Glandular

exudate of tomato genotypes and development of B. tabaci (Genn.) (Sternorryncha:

Aleyrodidae) biotype B. Neotrop. Entomol. 34(4): 659-665.

Fang, Y., J. Xiaoguo, X. Wen, W. Shaoli, W. Qingjun, S. Xiaobin, C. Gong, S. Qi, X. Yang,

H. Pan and Y. Zhang. 2013. Tomato yellow leaf curl virus alters the host preferences

of its vector Bemisia tabaci. Sci. Rep. 3: 1-4.

Page 124: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Farsani, N.S., A.A. Zamani, S. Abbasi and K. Kheradmand. 2011. Insecticidal effects of two

plant aqueous extracts against second instar larvae of Lycoriella Auripila (Diptera:

Sciaridae). World Acad. Sci. Eng. Tech. 58: 439-441.

Fauquet, C.M. and J. Stanely. 2003. Geminivirus classification and nomenclature; progress

and problems. Ann. Appl. Biol. 142 (2): 165-189.

Fauquet, C.M. and J. Stanley. 2005. Revising the way we conceive and name viruses below

the species level: a review of geminivirus taxonomy calls for new standardized isolate

descriptors. Arch. Virol. 150: 2151-2179.

Fauquet C.M., R.W. Briddon, J.K. Brown, E. Moriones, J. Stanley, M. Zerbini and X. Zhou.

2008. Geminivirus strain demarcation and nomenclature. Arch. Virol. 153: 783-821.

Firdaus, S., A.Wv. Heusden, N. Hidayati, E.D.J. Supena, R.G.F. Visser and B. Vosman.

2012. Resistance to Bemisia tabaci in tomato wild relatives. Euphytica. 187: 31-45.

Freitas, J.A., W.R. Maluf, M.dG. Cardoso, L.A.A. Gomes and E. Bearzotti. 2002. Inheritance

of foliar zingiberene contents and their relationship to trichome densities and whitefly

resistance in tomatoes. Euphytica. 127: 275-287.

Gaikwad, A.K., D.S. Cheema, M.S. Dhaliwal and A. Sharma. 2009. Artificial screening of

tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) germplasm against leaf curls virus disease.

National Symp. Plant Pathology in the Changing Global Scenario. 27-28 February,

2009. New Delhi, India.

Gerling, D., A.R. Horowitz and J. Bawmgartner. 1986. Ecology of Bemisia tabaci. Agric.

Ecosys. Environ. 17: 5-19.

Ghanim, M. and H. Czosnek. 2000. Tomato yellow leaf curl geminivirus (TYLCV-Is) is

transmitted among whiteflies (Bemisia tabaci) in a sex-related manner. J. Virol. 74:

4738-4745.

Ghanim, M., S. Morin and H. Czosnek. 2001. Rate of tomato yellow leaf curl virus

translocation in the circulative transmission pathway of its vector, the whitefly

Bemisia tabaci. Phytopath. 91: 188-196.

Ghanim, M., I. Sobol, M. Ghanim and H. Czosnek. 2007. Horizontal transmission of

begomoviruses between Bemisia tabaci biotypes. Arthropod Plant Interact. 1: 195-

204.

Page 125: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Glick, E., Y. Levy and Y. Gafni. 2009. The viral etiology of tomato leaf curl disease. Plant

Protect. Sci. 45(3): 81-97.

Gogi, M.D., M.J. Arif, M. Asif, Z. Abdin, M.H. Bashir, M. Arshad, M.A. Khan, Q. Abbas,

M.R. Shahid and A. Anwar. 2012. Impact of nutrient management schedules on

infestation of Bemisia tabaci on and yield of non-BT cotton (Gossypium hirsutum)

under unsprayed condition. Pak. Entomol. 34(1): 87-92.

Gomez, O., M. Pinon, Y. Martinez, M. Quinones, D. Fonseca and H. Laterrot. 2004.

Breeding for resistance to begomovirus in tropic-adapted tomato genotypes. Plant

Breed. 123: 275-279.

Gonzalez-Zamora, J.E. and J.M. Gallardo. 1999. Development and reproduction of B. tabaci

(Genn.) (Homoptera, Aleyrodidae) sweet pepper at three temperatures. Boletin-de-

San-idad. Vegetal, Plagas. 25(1): 3-11.

GOP. 2011. Economic survey of Pakistan, finance and economic affairs division. Islamabad.

Pakistan.

Gottlieb, Y., E. Zchori-Fein, N. Mozes-Daube, S. Kontsedalov, M. Skaljac, M. Brumin, I.

Sobol, H. Czosnek, F. Vavre, F. Fleury and M. Ghanim. 2010. The transmission

efficiency of tomato yellow leaf curl virus by the whitefly Bemisia tabaci is

correlated with the presence of a specific symbiotic bacterium species. J. Virol.

84(18): 9310-9317.

Gourmet, C., A.D. Hewings, F.L. Kolb and C.A. Smyth. 1994. Effect of imidacloprid on

non-flight movement of Ropalosiphum padi and the subsequent spread of barley

yellow dwarf virus. Plant Dis. 78: 1098-1101.

Govindappa, M.R., M. Bhemanna, A. Hosmani and V.N. Ghante. 2013. Bio-efficacy of

newer insecticides against tomato leaf curl virus disease and its vector whitefly

(Bemisia tabaci) in tomato. Int. J. Appl. Biol. Pharm. Tech. 4(3): 226-231.

Green, S.K. and Y. Sulyo. 1987. Leaf curl virus tomato in Taiwan province. FAO Plant

Protect. Bull. 35-62.

Gronenborn, B. 2007. The tomato yellow leaf curl virus genome and function of its proteins.

p. 67-84. In: H. Czosnek (ed.) Tomato yellow leaf curl virus disease. Springer,

Dordrecht, The Netherlands.

Page 126: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Guerere, P., D.T. Chirinos, F. Geraud-Pouey, E. Moriones, M.A. Santana, M.A. Franco, I.

Galindo-Castro and G. Romay. 2012. Experimental transmission of the mild strain of

tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) to Amaranthus dubius by Bemisia tabaci.

Phytoparasitica. 4: 369-373.

Guo, L., B. Yin, J. Zhou, X. Li and X.W. Deng. 2006. Development of rabbit monoclonal

and polyclonal antibodies for detection of site specific histone modifications and their

application in analyzing overall modification levels. Cell Res. 16: 519-527.

Guo, G., J. Gao, X. Wang, Y. Guo, J.C. Snyder and Y. Du. 2013. Establishment of an in

vitro method for evaluating whitefly resistance in tomato. Breed. Sci. 63: 239-245.

Habib, S., N. Shad, A. Javaid and U. Iqbal. 2007. Screening of mungbean germplasm for

resistance/tolerance against yellow mosaic disease. Mycopath. 5(2): 89-94.

Hansch, R. and R.R. Mendel. 2009. Physiological functions of mineral micronutrients (Cu,

Zn, Mn, Fe, Ni, Mo, B, Cl). Curr. Opin. Plant Biol. 12: 259-266.

Hanson, P.M., D. Bernacchi, S. Green, S.D. Tanksley, M. Venkataramappa, A.S. Padmaja,

H. Chen, G. Kuo, D. Fang and J. Chen. 2000. Mapping a wild tomato introgression

associated with tomato yellow leaf curl virus resistance in a cultivated tomato line. J.

Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 125: 15-20.

Harrison, B.D., V. Muniyappa, M.M. Swanson, I.M. Roberts and D.J. Robinson. 1991.

Recognition and differentiation of seven whitefly-transmitted geminiviruses from

India, and their relationships to African cassava mosaic virus and Thailand mungbean

yellow mosaic viruses. Ann. Appl. Biol. 118: 299-308.

Hassan, A.A., M.S. Wafi, N.E. Quronfilah, U.A. Obaji, M.A. AI-Rayis and F. Al-lzabi. 1991.

Evaluation of wild and domestic Lycopersicon accessions to tomato yellow leaf curl

virus resistance. Egypt J. Hort. 18: 23-43.

Hidayat, S.H. and E. Rahmayani. 2007. Transmission of tomato leaf curl begomovirus by

two different species of whitefly (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae). Plant Pathol. J. 23(2): 57-

61.

Holt, J.K., J. Colvin and V. Muniyappa. 1999. Identifying control strategies for tomato leaf

curl virus disease using an epidemiological model. J. Appl. Ecol. 36: 625-633.

Page 127: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Horowitz, A.R., Z. Mendelson, P.G. Weintraub and I. Ishaaya. 1998. Comparative toxicity of

foliar and systemic application of acetamiprid and imidacloprid against the cotton

whitefly, Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae). Bull. Entomol. Res. 88: 437-442.

Ilana, A., R. Moshe, A. Raviv, P. Ilan, N. Sahadia, S. Haviva, C. Lea, L. Moshe and L. Ilan.

2009. Molecular dissection of tomato leaf curl virus resistance in tomato line TY172

derived from Solanum peruvianum. Theor. Appl. Genet. 119: 519-530.

Inbar, M. and D. Gerling. 2008. Plant-mediated interactions between whiteflies, herbivores,

and natural enemies. Annu. Rev. Entomol. 53: 431-448.

Ioannou, N. 1985. Yellow leaf curl and other diseases of tomato in Cyprus. Plant Pathol. 345:

428-434.

Ioannou, N. and N. Lordanou. 1985. Epidemiology of tomato yellow leaf curl virus in

relation to the population density of its whitefly vector, B. tabaci (Gennadius). Tech.

Bull. 71: 2-7.

Ishaaya, I., A. Barazani, S. Kontsedalov and A.R. Horowitz. 2007. Insecticides with novel

modes of action: Mechanism, selectivity and cross-resistance. Entomol. Res. 37: 148-

152.

Jalali, B. L., S. Bhargava and A. Kamble. 2006. Signal transduction and transcriptional

regulation of plant defense responses. J. Phytopathol. 154: 65-74.

Jazzar, C. and E.Af. Hammad. 2003. The efficacy of enhanced aqueous extracts of Melia

azedarach leaves and fruits integrated with the Camptotylus reuteri releases against

the sweet potato whitefly nymphs. Bull. Insectol. 56(2): 547-551.

Jeger, M.J., J. Holt, F.V.D. Bosch and L.V. Madden. 2004. Epidemiology of insect-

transmitted plant viruses: modelling disease dynamics and control interventions.

Physiol. Entomol. 29: 291-304.

Jeger, M.J., L.V. Madden and F. van den Bosch. 2009. The effect of transmission route on

plant virus epidemic development and disease control. J. Theoret. Biol. 258(2): 198.

Jeske, H., M. Lütgemeier and W. Preiss. 2001. DNA forms indicate rolling circle and

recombination-dependent replication of abutilon mosaic virus. EMBO J. 20: 6158-

6167.

Page 128: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Jiang, Y.X., C. De-Blas, L. Barrios and A. Fereres. 2000. Correlation between whitefly

(Homoptera: Aleyrodidae) feeding behavior and transmission of tomato yellow leaf

curl virus. Ann. Entomol. Soc. Am. 93(3): 573-579.

Johnson, R.A. and D.W. Wichem. 1982. Applied multivariate statistical analysis. p.

152-156. Englewood, Cliffs. NJ: Prentice-Hall.

Jorda, C., I. Font, P. Martínez, M. Juarez, A. Ortega and A. Lacasa. 2000. Current status and

new natural host of Tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) in Spain. Plant Dis. 85:

445.

Karim, Z., M.A. Bakr, M.S. Hossain and M.M. Islam. 2008. Effect of selected insecticides

and botanicals against tomato yellow leaf curl virus in tomato. Bangladesh J. Plant

Pathol. 24 (2): 41-44.

Karim, Z. and M.M. Rehman. 2012. Evaluation of imidacloprid against tomato yellow leaf

curl virus (TYLCV) disease on different tomato varieties suggesting a management

package for late season cultivation. IJASETR. 1(2): 12-19.

Kashina, B.D., R.B. Mabagala and A.A. Mpunami. 2004. Evaluation of tomato

(Lycopersicon esculentum mill.) genotypes for resistance to the tomato yellow leaf

curl Tanzania virus. Arch. Phytopathol. Plant Protect. 37: 1-8.

Kashina, B.D., B.R. Mabagala, and A.A. Mpunami. 2007. Transmission properties of tomato

yellow leaf curl virus from Tanzania. J. Plant Prot. Res. 47(1): 43-51.

Kasrawi, M.A., M.A. Suwwan and A. Mansour. 1988. Sources of resistance to tomato yellow

leaf curl virus in Lycopersicon species. Euphytica. 37: 61-64.

Kaushik, C. 2012. Incidence and abundance of whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, Genn. and the

occurrence of tomato yellow leaf curl virus disease (TYLCV) in relation to the

climatic conditions of Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri, west Bengal, India. J. Entomol. Res.

36(1): 35-40.

Kegler, H. 1994. Incidence, properties and control of tomato yellow leaf curl virus: A review.

Arch. Phytopathol. Plant Protect. 29: 119-132.

Khan, M.A. 1994. A decision-support model for the economic chemotherapy of leaf rust on

winter wheat in Mississippi. Ph.D thesis, Dept. Entomol. Plant Pathol., Mississippi

State Univ., Mississippi, USA.

Page 129: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Khan, M.A., J.H. Mirza and S. Ahmad. 1998. Relationship of environmental conditions

conducive to cotton leaf curl virus disease development. Pak. J. Phytopathol. 10(1): 5-

8.

Khan, M.A. and H.A. Khan. 2000. Cotton leaf curl virus disease severity in relation to

environmental conditions. Pak. J. Biol. Sci. 3(10): 1688-1690.

Khan, J.A., M.K. Siddiqui and B.P. Singh. 2002. The natural occurrence of a begomovirus in

sunhemp (Crotalaria juncea) in India. Plant Pathol. 51: 393-398.

Khan, M.A., Q. Nadeem, S.M. Khan and M.A. Nasir. 2003. Effect of salicylic acid, KH2PO4

and K2HPO4 on the egg hatchability, adult emergence and population of Bemisia

tabaci and cotton leaf curl virus. Pak. J. Bot. 35(5): 977-981.

Khan, M.A., S. Rashid and S. Ali. 2006a. Evaluation of multiple regression models based on

epidemiological factors to forecast Bemisia tabaci and mungbean yellow mosaic

virus. Pak. J. Phytopathol. 18(2):107-110.

Khan, M.A., M. Hussain, M.N. Sajid and M.A. Khan. 2006b. A two environmental variable

model to predict wheat leaf rust based on ten years data. Pak. J. Phytopathol. 18(2):

114-116.

Khan, S.M. 2011. Varietal performance and chemical control used as tactics against sucking

insect pests of cotton. Sarhad J. Agric. 27(2): 255-261.

Khan, M.H., N. Ahmad, S.M.M. Rashdi, I. Rauf, M. Ismail and M. Tofique. 2013.

Management of sucking complex in Bt cotton through the application of different

plant products. Pak. J. Life Sci. 1(1): 42-48.

Kil, E.J., J. Park, H. Lee, J. Kim, H.S. Choi, K.Y. Lee, C.S. Kim and S. Lee. 2014. Lamium

amplexicaule (Lamiaceae): a weed reservoir for tomato yellow leaf curl virus

(TYLCV) in Korea. Arch. Virol. 159(6): 1305-1311.

Khattak, M.K., M. Rashid, S.A.S. Hussain and T. Islam. 2006. Comparative effect of neem

(Azadirachta indica A. JUSS) oil, neem seed water extract and baythroid tm against

whitefly, jassids and thrips on cotton. Pak. Entomol. 28(1): 31-37.

Kumar, S.P., S.K. Patel, R.G. Kapopara, Y.T. Jasrai and H.A. Pandya. 2012. Evolutionary

and molecular aspects of Indian tomato leaf curl virus coat protein. Int. J. Plant

Genomics. 1-12.

Page 130: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Kumhawat, R.L., B.L. Pareek and B.L. Meena. 2000. Seasonal incidence of jassid and

whitefly on okra and their correlation with abiotic factors. Ann. Biol. 16(2): 167-169.

Kunik, T., K. Palanaichelvam, H. Czosnek, V. Citovsky and Y. Gafni. 1998. Nuclear import

of the capsid protein of tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) in plant and insect

cells. Plant J. 13: 393-399.

Lapidot, M., M. Friedmann, O. Lachman, A. Yehezkel, S. Nahon, S. Cohen and M.

Pilowsky. 1997. Comparison of resistance level to tomato yellow leaf curl virus

among commercial cultivars and breeding lines. Plant Dis. 81: 1425-1428.

Lapidot, M., M. Friedmann, M. Pilowsky, R. Ben-Joseph and S. Cohen. 2001. Effect of host

plant resistance to Tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) on virus acquisition and

transmission by its whitefly vector. Phytopath. 91: 1209-1213.

Lapidot, M. and M. Friedmann. 2002. Breeding for resistance to whitefly-transmitted

geminiviruses. Ann. Appl. Biol. 140: 109-127.

Lapidot, M. and J.E. Polston. 2006. Resistance to tomato yellow leaf curl virus in tomato. p.

503-520. In: G. Loebenstein and J.P. Carr (eds.) Natural resistance mechanisms of

plants to viruses. Springer Verlag, New York, USA.

Lefeuvre, P., D.P. Martin, G. Harkins, P. Lemey and A.J.A. Gray. 2010. The spread of

tomato yellow leaf curl virus from the Middle East to the World. PLoS Path. 6(10): 1-

11.

Legaspi, J.C., A.M. Simmons and Jr.B.C. Legaspi. 2006. Prey preference by Delphastus

catalinae (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) on Bemisia argentifolii (Homoptera:

Aleyrodidae): effects of plant species and prey stages. Fla. Entomol. 89(2): 218-222.

Legg, J. P. 1996. Host-associated strains within Ugandan populations of the whitefly Bemisia

tabaci (Genn.), (Homoptera, Aleyrodidae). J. Appl. Entomol. 120: 523-527.

Liedli, B.E., D.M. Lawson, K.K. White, J.A. Shapiro, D.E. Cohen, W.G. Carson, and M.A.

Mutschler. 1995. Acyl sugar of wild tomato Lycopersicon pennelli alters settling and

reduces oviposition of Bemisia argentifolii (Homoptera: Aleyrodidae). J. Econ.

Entomol. 88: 742-748.

Lind, R.J., M.S. Clough, F.G.P. Earley, S. Wonnacott and S.E. Reynolds. 1999.

Characterization of multiple α-bungarotoxin binding sites in the aphid Myzus persicae

(Hemiptera: Aphididae). Insect Biochem. Mol. Biol. 29: 979-988.

Page 131: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Liu, S.S., P.J. De Barro, J. Xu, J.B. Luan, L.S. Zang, Y.M. Ruan and F.H. Wan. 2007.

Asymmetric mating interactions drive widespread invasion and displacement in a

whitefly. Sci. 318: 1769-1772.

Lynn, O.M., W.G. Song, J.K. Shim, J.E. Kim and K.Y. Lee. 2010. Effects of azadirachtin

and neem-based formulations for the control of sweet potato whitefly and root knot

nematode. J. Korean Soc. Appl. Biol. Chem. 53(5): 598-604.

Maanen, A.V. and X.M. Xu. 2003. Modeling plant disease epidemics. Eur. J. Plant Pathol.

109: 669-682.

Macintosh, S., D.J. Robinson and B.D. Harrison. 1992. Detection of three whitefly

transmitted geminiviruses occurring in Europe by tests with heterologous monoclonal

antibodies. Ann. Appl. Biol. 121: 297-303.

Madhusudhan, K.W., M.S. Nalini, H.S. Prakashand and H.S. Shetty. 2005. Effect of inducers

against tobamovirus infection in tomato and bell pepper. Indian J. Bot. 1(1): 59-61.

Makkouk, K.M., S. Shehab and S.E. Majdalan. 1979. Tomato yellow leaf curl: incidence,

yield losses and transmission in Lebanon. Phytopath. Z. 96: 263-267.

Makkouk, K.M. and H. Laterrot 1983. Epidemiology and control of tomato yellow leaf curl

virus. p. 315-321. In: R.T. Plumb and J.M. Thresh (eds.) Plant virus epidemiology.

Blackwell, Oxford, UK.

Mansoor, S. S.H. Khan, M. Saeed, A. Bashir, Y. Zafar, K.A. Malik and P.G. Markham. 1997.

Evidence for the association of a bipartite geminivirus with tomato leaf curl disease in

Pakistan. Plant Dis. 81: 958.

Mari, F.M., A.M. Rajab and H.D. Lohano. 2007. Measuring returns to scale for onion,

tomato and chilies production in Sindh province of Pakistan. Int. J. Agric. Biol. 9(5):

788-790.

Marschner, H. 1995. Mineral nutrition of higher plants. p. 889. 2nd ed., Academic Press,

London.

Martin, J.H., D. Mifsud and C. Rapisarda. 2000. The whiteflies (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) of

Europe and the Mediterranean basin. Bull. Entomol. Res. 90: 407-448.

Maruthi, M.N., H. Czosnek, F. Vidavski, S.Y. Tarba, J. Milo, S. Leviatov, H.M. Venkatesh,

A. S. Padmaja, R.S. Kulkarni and V. Muniyappa. 2003. Comparison of resistance to

Page 132: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

tomato leaf curl virus (India) and tomato yellow leaf curl virus (Israel) among

Lycopersicon wild species, breeding lines and hybrids. Eur. J. Plant Pathol. 109: 1-11.

Mason, G., M. Rancati and D. Bosco. 2000. The effect of thiamethoxam, a second generation

neonicotinoid insecticide, in preventing transmission of tomato yellow leaf curl

geminivirus (TYLCV) by the whitefly Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius). Crop Prot. 19:

473-479.

Mathews, R.E.F. 1970. Methods of transmission and infection. p. 778. In: Plant virology,

Academic Press, New York and London.

Mayers, C.N., K.C. Lee, C.A. Moore, S.M. Wong and J.P. Carr. 2005. Salicylic acid induced

resistance to cucumber mosaic virus in squash and Arabidopsis thaliana: Contrasting

mechanisms of induction and antiviral action. Mol. Plant Microbe Interact. 18(5):

428-434.

Mazyad, H.M., F. Omar, K. Altaher and M. Salha. 1979. Observations on the epidemiology

of yellow leaf curl disease on tomato plants. Plant Dis. Rep. 63: 695-698.

Mazyad, H.M., E.M. Khalil, A.A. Rezk, M.A. Abdel-Hakem, A.E. Aboul-Ata. 2007. Genetic

studies on tomato yellow leaf curl begomovirus (TYLCV) resistance in Egypt: Six-

population analysis. Int. J. Virol. 3: 88-95.

McGrath, P.F. and B.D. Harrison. 1995. Transmission of tomato leaf curl geminiviruses by

Bemisia tabaci: effect of virus isolate and vector biotype. Ann. Appl. Biol. 126: 307-

316.

McDowell, E.T., J. Kapteyn, A. Schmidt, C. Li, J.H. Kang, A. Descour, F. Shi, M. Larson, A.

Schilmiller, L.L. An, A.D. Jones, E. Pichersky, C.A. Soderlund and D.R. Gang. 2011.

Comparative functional genomic analysis of Solanum glandular trichome types. Plant

Physiol. 155(1): 524-539.

Medina, L.M.C., I.T. Pacheco, R.G.G. Gonzalez, R.J.R. Troncoso, I.R.T. Villalobos and

R.A.O. Rios. 2009. Mathematical modeling tendencies in plant pathology. Afric. J.

Biotech. 8(25): 7399-7408.

Mehta, P., J.A. Wyman, M.K. Nakhla and D.P. Maxwell. 1994. Transmission of tomato

yellow leaf curl geminivirus by Bemisia tabaci. J. Econ. Entomol. 87: 1291-1297.

Page 133: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Michelson, I., D. Zamir and H. Czosnek.1994. Accumulation and translocation of Tomato

yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) in a Lycopersicon esculentum breeding line

containing the L. chilense TYLCV tolerance gene Ty-1. Phytopath: 84:928-933.

Momotaz, A., J.W. Scott and D.J. Schuster. 2010. Identification of quantitative trait loci

conferring resistance to Bemisia tabaci in an F2 population of Solanum lycopersicum

X S. habrochaites accession LA1777. J. Am. Soc. Hortic. Sci. 135(2): 134-142.

Montasser, M.S., F.D. Al-own, A.M. Haneif and M. Afzal. 2012. Effect of tomato yellow

leaf curl bigeminivirus (TYLCV) infection on tomato cell ultrastructure and

physiology. Can. J. Plant Pathol. 34(1): 114-125.

Morales, F.J. and P.G. Jones. 2004. The ecology and epidemiology of whitefly-transmitted

viruses in Latin America. Virus Res. 100: 57-65.

Morales, J., P. Candau and F.J. Gonzalez. 2004. Relationship between the concentration of

some fungal spores in the air of Seville (Spain), and bioclimatic indices. p. 86.

Santander: Spanish Association for Climatology and University of Cantabria.

Morales, F.J. 2007. Tropical whitefly IPM project. Adv. Virus Res. 69: 249-311.

Morin S, M. Ghanim, I. Sobol and H. Czosnek. 2000. The GroEL protein of the whitefly

Bemisia tabaci interacts with the coat protein of transmissible and non-transmissible

begomoviruses in the yeast two-hybrid system. Virol. 276: 404-416.

Moriones, E. and J. Navas-Castillo. 2000. Tomato yellow leaf curl virus; an emerging virus

complex causing epidemics worldwide. Virus Res. 71: 123-34.

Moshe, A., J. Pfannstiel, B. Yariv, M. Kolot, I. Sobol, H. Czosnek and R. Gorovits. 2012.

Stress responses to tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) infection of resistant and

susceptible tomato plants are different. Metabolomics. 1: 1-13.

Muniyappa, V., M.M. Swanson, G.H. Duncan and B.D. Harrison. 1991. Particle purification,

properties and epitome variability of Indian tomato leaf curl and geminiviruses. Ann.

Appl. Biol. 118: 595-604.

Muniyappa, V., H.M. Venkatesh, H.K. Ramappa, R.S. Kulkarni, M. Zeidan, C.Y. Tarba, M.

Ghanim, and H. Czosnek. 2000. Tomato leaf curl virus from Bangalore (ToLCV-

Ban4): sequence comparison with Indian ToLCV isolates, detection in plants and

insects and vector relationships. Arch. Virol. 145: 1583-1598.

Page 134: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Muqit, A., A.M. Akanda and M.A. Bari. 2006. Effect of insecticides and vegetable oil on

tomato yellow leaf curl virus. Int. J. Sustain. Crop Prod. 1(1): 21-23.

Mushtaq, S., F. Shamim, M. Shafique and M.S. Haider. 2014. Effect of whitefly transmitted

geminiviruses on the physiology of tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum L.) and tobacco

(Nicotiana benthamiana L.) Plants. J. Nat. Sci. Res. 4(9): 109-118.

Myers, R.H. 1990. Classical and modern regression with applications. PWS-Kent Publishing

Company, Boston, USA.

Nakhla, M.K., H.M. Mazyad and D.P. Maxwell. 1993. Molecular characterization of four

tomato yellow leaf curl virus isolates from Egypt and development of diagnostic

methods. Phytopathol. Mediterr. 32: 163-173.

Naerstad, R., A. Hansen and T. Bjor. 2007. Exploiting host resistance to reduce the use of

fungicides to control potato late blight. J. Plant Pathol. 56: 156-166.

Nagaraju, N., H. Warburton, H.M. Venkatesh, V. Muniyappa, T.C.B. Chancellor and J.

Colvin. 2002. Farmers’ perceptions and practices for managing tomato leaf curl virus

disease in southern India. Int. J. Pest Manage. 8: 333-338.

Natwick, E.T. 2001. Comparison of neonicotinoid with pyrethroid insecticides for control

whitefly in cotton. p. 802-803. In: Proc. Beltwide Cotton Conf. Jan. 9-13. Anaheim,

CA. Natl. Cotton Council. Am., Memphis, TN.

Navas-Castillo, J., S. Sanchez-Campos, J.A. Diaz, E. Saez-Alonso and E. Moriones. 1999.

Tomato yellow leaf curl virus-Is causes a novel disease of common bean and severe

epidemics in tomato in Spain. Plant Dis. 83: 29-32.

Nitzany, F.E. 1975. Tomato yellow leaf curl virus. Phytopathol. Mediterr. 14: 127-129.

Oliveira, M.R.V., T.J. Henneberryb and P. Andersonc. 2001. History, current status and

collaborative research projects for Bemisia tabaci. Crop Prot. 20: 709-723.

Osei, M.K. R. Akromah, J. N. L. Lamptey and M. D. Quain. 2012. Phenotypic and molecular

screening of some tomato germplasm for resistance to tomato yellow leaf curl virus

disease in Ghana. Afric. J. Agric. Res. 7(33): 4675-4684.

Padidam, M., R.N. Beachy and C.M. Fauquet. 1995. Tomato leaf curl geminivirus from India

has a bipartite genome and coat protein is not essential for infectivity. J. Gen. Virol.

76: 25-35.

Page 135: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Pal, K.K. and B.M. Gardener. 2006. Biological control of plant pathogrns. Plant Health

Instructor. 2: 1-25.

Palumbo, J.C., A.R. Horowitz and N. Prabhaker. 2001. Insecticidal control and resistance

management for Bemisia tabaci. J. Crop Protect. 20: 739-765.

Pandey, P., N.R. Choudhury and S.K. Mukherjee. 2009. A geminiviral amplicon (VA)

derived from Tomato leaf curl virus (ToLCV) can replicate in a wide variety of plant

species and also acts as a VIGS vector. Virol. J. 6(1): 152.

Papayiannis, L. C., N.I. Katis, A.M. Idris and J.K. Brown. 2011. Identification of weed hosts

of tomato yellow leaf curl virus in Cyprus. Plant Dis. 95: 120-125.

Park, J., S.M.H. Jahan, W.G. Song, H. Lee, Y.S. Lee, H.S. Choi, K.S. Lee, C.S. Kim, S. Lee

and K.Y. Lee. 2012. Identification of biotypes and secondary endosymbionts of

Bemisia tabaci in Korea and relationships with the occurrence of TYLCV disease. J.

Asia Pac. Entomol. 15: 186-191.

Parrish, M.D., H. Ayad and K. Holmes. 2001. Ovicidal activity of acetamiprid (AssailTM

brand 70WP insecticide) on economic pests of cotton. p. 904-906. In: Proc. Beltwide

Cotton Conf., 9-13 January 2001, Anaheim, CA. Natl. Cotton Counc. Am., Memphis,

TN.

Pethybridge, S.J. and L.V. Madden. 2003. Analysis of spatio-temporal dynamics of virus

spread in an Australian hop garden by stochastic modeling. Plant Dis. 87: 56-62.

Pico, B., M.J. Diez and F. Nuez. 1996. Viral diseases causing the greatest economic losses to

the tomato crop. II. The tomato yellow leaf curl virus-a review. Sci. Hort. 67: 151-

196.

Pico, B., M. Diez and F. Nuez. 1998. Evaluation of whitefly-mediated inoculation techniques

to screen Lycopersicon esculentum and wild relatives for resistance to tomato yellow

leaf curl virus. Euphytica. 101: 259-271.

Pico, B., M. Ferriol, M.J. Diaz and F.N. Vinals. 2001. Agro-inoculation method to screen

wild Lycopersicon for resistance to tomato yellow leaf curl virus. J. Plant Pathol. 83:

215-220.

Pilowsky, M. and S. Cohen. 1990. Tolerance to tomato yellow leaf curl virus derived from

Lycopersicon peruvianum. Plant Dis. 74: 248-250.

Page 136: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Polizzi, G. and C. Asero. 1993. Epidemiology and incidence of tomato yellow leaf curl virus

(TYLCV) in greenhouse protected by screens in Italy. Acta Hort. 366.

Polston, J.E. and P.K. Anderson. 1997. The emergence of whitefly-transmitted geminiviruses

in tomato in the western hemisphere. Plant Dis. 81: 1358-1369.

Polston, J.E., L. Cohen, T.A. Sherwood, R. Ben-Joseph and M. Lapidot. 2006. Capsicum

species: Symptomless hosts and reservoirs of tomato yellow leaf curl virus.

Phytopath. 96: 447-452.

Pramanik, B.K. and A. Ali. 2001. Cultural and nutritional management of yellow mosaic in

winter mungbean. Pak. J. Biol. Sci. 4: 59-62.

Pusag, J.C.A., S.M.H. Jahan, K.S. Lee, S. Lee, K.Y. Lee. 2012. Up regulation of temperature

susceptibility in Bemisia tabaci upon acquisition of tomato yellow leaf curl virus

(TYLCV). J. Insect Physiol. 58: 1343-1348.

Ragupathi, N. and P. Narayanaswamy. 2000. Screening of tomato germplasm to tomato leaf

curl virus (TLCV) disease. Madras Agric. J. 87(10/12): 715-717.

Rahman, A.H.M.A., A.M. Akanda and A.K.M.A. Alam. 2006. Relationship of whitefly

population build up with the spread of TYLCV on eight tomato varieties. J. Agric.

Rural Dev. 4(1): 67-74.

Rai, N., R. Pathak, T. Tirkey and R. Pathak. 2001. Studies on relationship between

environmental conditions on tomato leaf curl virus (TLCV) incidence. Prog. Hort.

33(2): 184-189.

Ramappa, H.K., V. Muniyappa and J. Colvin. 1998. The contribution of tomato and

alternative host plants to tomato leaf curl virus inoculum pressure in different areas of

south India. Ann. Appl. Biol. 133: 187-198.

Rashid, M.H., I. Hossain, A. Hannan, S.A. Uddin and M.A. Hossain. 2008a. Effect of

different dates of planting time on prevalence of tomato yellow leaf curl virus and

whitefly of tomato. J. Soil Nat. 2(1): 01-06.

Rashid, M.H., I. Hossain, M.S. Alam, M. M. Zaman and A. Hannan. 2008b. Study on virus-

vector relationship in TYLCV of tomato. Int. J. Sustain. Crop Prod. 3(1): 1-6.

Reddy, Ch., V.A. Tonapi, S. Varanasiappan, S.S. Navi and R. Jayarajan. 2006. Management

of urdbean leaf crinkle virus (Vigna munga (L.) Hepper). Int. J. Agric. Sci. 2(1): 22-

28.

Page 137: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Rice, R.P., L.W. Rice and H.D. Tindall. 1987. Fruit and vegetable production in Africa.

Macmillan Publishers, UK.

Rivard, C.L. and F.J. Louws. 2008. Grafting to manage soil-borne diseases in heirloom

tomato production. Hort. Sci. 43(7): 2104-2111.

Rochester, D.E., J.J. DePaulo, C.M. Fauquet and R.N. Beachy. 1994. Complete nucleotide

sequence of the geminivirus tomato yellow leaf curl virus, Thailand isolate. J. Gen.

Virol. 75: 477-485.

Rojas, M.R., H. Jiang, R. Salati, B. Xoconostle-Cazares, M.R. Sudarshana, W.J. Lucas and

R.L. Gilbertson. 2001. Functional analysis of proteins involved in movement of the

monopartite begomovirus, tomato yellow leaf curl virus. Virol. 291: 110-125.

Rom, M., Y. Antignus, D. Gidni, M. Pilowsky and S. Cohen. 1993. Accumulation of tomato

yellow leaf curl virus DNA in tolerant and susceptible tomato lines. Plant Dis. 77:

253-257.

Rubinstein, G. and H. Czosnek. 1997. Long-term association of tomato yellow leaf curl virus

with its whitefly vector Bemisia tabaci: effect on the insect transmission capacity,

longevity and fecundity. J. Gen. Virol. 78: 2683-2689.

Rubio, L., J. R. Herrero, J. Sarrio, P. Morreno and J. Guerri. 2003. A new approach to

evaluate relative resistance and tolerance of tomato cultivars to begomoviruses

causing the tomato yellow leaf curl disease in Spain. Plant Pathol. 52: 763-769.

Saikia, A.K. and V. Muniyappa. 1989. Epidemiology and control of tomato leaf curl virus in

Southern India. Trop. Agric. 66: 350-354.

Saklani, A.U.D. and P.J. Mathai. 1977. Effect of date of planting on leaf curl disease of

tomato. Indian J. Hort. 34(1): 64-68.

Salati, R., M.K. Nahkla, M.R. Rojas, P. Guzman, J. Jaquez, D.P. Maxwell and

R.L.Gilbertson. 2002. Tomato yellow leaf curl virus in the Dominican Republic:

Characterization of an infectious clone, virus monitoring in whiteflies, and

identification of reservoir hosts. Phytopath. 92: 487-496.

Samretwanich, K., P. Chiemsombat, K. Kittipakorn and M. Ikegami. 2000. Yellow leaf

disease of cantaloupe and wax gourd from Thailand caused by tomato leaf curl virus.

Plant Dis. 84: 200.

Page 138: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Sanchez-Pena, P., K. Oyama, J.N. Farfán, J. Fornoni, S.H. Verdugo, J.M. Guzman and

J.A.G. Tiznado. 2006. Sources of resistance to whitefly (Bemisia spp.) in wild

populations of Solanum lycopersicum var. cerasiforme (Dunal) spooner in

Northwestern Mexico. Genet. Res. Crop Evol. 53: 711-719.

Sankari, A., D. Veeraragavathatham, R. Samiyappan, E. Vadivel, A.R. Muthiaya and J.

Auxcilia. 2002. Performance of parents and hybrids in response to inoculation with

tomato leaf curl virus. South Indian Hort. 50: 349-359.

SAS Institute. 1990. SAS user's guide to Statistics: (6.4th Ed.). SAS Inst., Inc., Cary, NC,

USA.

Sastry, K.S.M., S.J. Singh and K.S. Sastry. 1978. Studies on epidemiology of tomato leaf

curl virus. Indian J. Hort. 35(3): 269-277.

Schaaf, O., A.P. Jarvis, S.A. van der Esch, G. Giagnavoco and N.J. Oldham. 2000. Rapid

and sensitive analysis of azadirachtin and related triterpenoids from (Azadirachta

indica) by high performance liquid chromatography-atmospheric pressure chemical

ionization mass spectrometry. J. Chromat. 886: 89-97.

Schuerger, A.C. and W. Hammer. 1995. Effects of temperature on disease development of

tomato mosaic virus in Capsicum annum in hydroponic systems. Plant Dis. 79: 880-

885.

Seal, S.E., Fv. Bosch and M.J. Jeger. 2006. Factors influencing begomovirus evolution and

their increasing global significance: implications for sustainable control. Crit. Rev.

Plant Sci. 25: 23-46.

Sera, T. 2005. Inhibition of virus DNA replication by artificial zinc finger proteins. J. Virol.

79(4): 2614-2619.

Setiawati, W., B.K. Udiarto and N. Gunaeni. 2009. Preference and infestation pattern of

Bemisia tabaci (Genn.) on some tomato varieties and its effect on geminivirus

infestation. Indones. J. Agric. 2(1): 57-64.

Senguttuvan, K., S. Kuttalam, T. Manoharan and T. Srinivasan. 2005. Bio-efficacy of Melia

dubia Cav. and neem products against major insect pests of tomato. Pestol. 29(1): 47-

49.

Shaheen, A.H. 1983. Some ecological studies on whitefly (Bemisia tabaci Genn.) infesting

tomato at Mansoura district. Egypt Acta Phytopathol. Hun. 17: 145-155.

Page 139: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Shaner, G. and R.E. Finney. 1977. The effect of nitrogen fertilization on the expression of

slow-mildewing resistance in Knox wheat. Phytopath. 67: 1051-1056.

Shelat, M., S. Murari, M.C. Sharma, R.B. Subramanian, J. Jummanah and B. Jarullah. 2014.

Prevalence and distribution of tomato leaf curl virus in major agro-climatic zones of

Gujarat. Adv. Biosci. Biotechnol. 5: 1-3.

Shtienberg, D. 2000. Modeling: The basis for rationale disease management. Crop Prot. 19:

747-752.

Shivana, B.K., N.B. Gangadhara, R. Nagaraja, M.K. Basavaraja, C.M.K. Swamy and C.

Karegowda. 2011. Bio-efficacy of new insecticides against sucking insect pests of

transgenic cotton. Int. J. Sci. Nat. 2(1): 79-83.

Siddiqui, B.S., F. Afshan, S. Ghiasuddin, S.N.H. Faizi and R.M.N. Tariq. 2000. Two

insecticidal tetranortriterpenoids from Azadirachta indica. Phytochem. 53: 371-376.

Siebert, M.W., J.D. Thomas, S.P. Nolting, B.R. Leonard, J. Gore, A. Catchot, G.M. Lorenz,

S.D. Stewart, D.R. Cook, L.C. Walton, R.B. Lassiter, R.A. Haygood and J.D. Siebert.

2012. Field evaluations of sulfoxaflor: a novel insecticide against tarnished plant bug

(Hemiptera: Miridae) in cotton. J. Cotton Sci. 16: 129-143.

Simmons, A.T. and G.M. Gurr. 2005. Trichomes of Lycopersicon species and their hybrids:

effects on pests and natural enemies. Agric. For. Entomol. 7(4): 265-276.

Simko, I. and H.P. Piepho. 2012. The area under the disease progress stairs: Calculation,

advantage and application. Phytopath. 102: 381-389.

Singh, J.S. 1990. Etiology and epidemiology of whitefly transmitted virus disease of okra.

Indian Plant Dis. Res. 5: 64-70.

Singh, B.P. and N. Bhat. 2003. Emerging trends in the epidemiology of late blight of

potato. Annu. Rev. Plant Pathol. 2: 43-84.

Singh, K. 2014. Evaluation of tomato genotypes and its reaction against ToLCV causing leaf

curl disease in tomato (Solanum lycopersicon L.). J. Exp. Biol. Agri. Sci. 2(1): 120-

125.

Snee, R.D. 1977. Validation of regression models: methods and examples. Technometrics.

19: 415-428.

Srinivasan, R., D. Riley, S. Diffie, A. Sparks and S. Adkins. 2012. Whitefly population

dynamics and evaluation of whitefly-transmitted tomato yellow leaf curl virus

Page 140: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

(TYLCV) resistant tomato genotypes as whitefly and TYLCV reservoirs. J. Econ.

Entomol. 105(4): 1447-1456.

Ssekyewa, C. 2006. Incidence, distribution and characteristics of major tomato leaf curl and

mosaic virus diseases in Uganda. Ph.D. Thesis. Faculty of Bioscience Engineering,

Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.

Steel, R.G.D., J.H. Torri and D.A. Dickey. 1997. Principles and procedures of statistics: A

biometrics approach, 2nd ed. McGraw-Hill, New York.

Stonor, J., P. Hart, M. Gunther, P. DeBarro and M.A. Rezaian. 2003. Tomato leaf curl

geminivirus in Australia: occurrence, detection, sequence diversity and host range.

Plant Pathol. 52: 379-388.

Tayyib, M., A. Sohail, Shazia, A. Murtaza and F.F. Jamil. 2005. Efficacy of some new-

chemistry insecticides for controlling the sucking insect pests and mites on cotton.

Pak. Entomol. 27(1): 63-66.

Thompson, I.A. and D.M. Huber. 2007. Manganese and plant disease. p. 139-153. In: L.E.

Datnoff, W.H. Elmer and D.M. Huber (eds.) Mineral nutrition and plant disease. St.

Paul: APS Press, USA.

Tiwari, S.P., S. Nema, M.N. Khare. 2013. Whitefly-A strong transmitter of plant viruses.

ESci. J. Plant Pathol. 2(02): 102-120.

Tomas, D.M., M.C. Cañizares, J. Abad, R. F. Muñoz and E. Moriones. 2011. Resistance to

tomato yellow leaf curl virus accumulation in the tomato wild relative Solanum

habrochaites associated with the C4 viral protein. Mol. Plant Microbe Interact. 24(7):

849-861.

Tomizawa, M., H. Otsuka, T. Miyamoto, M.E. Eldefrawi and I. Yamamoto. 1995.

Pharmacological characteristic of insect nicotinic acetylcholine receptor with its ion

channel and the comparison of the effect of neonicotinoid. J. Pestic. Sci. 20: 57-64.

Uchibori, M., A. Hirata, M. Suzuki and M. Ugaki. 2013. Tomato yellow leaf curl virus

accumulates in vesicle-like structures in descending and ascending midgut epithelial

cells of the vector whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, but not in those of non-vector whitefly

Trialeurodes vaporariorum. J. Gen. Plant Pathol. 79:115-122.

Page 141: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Valizadeh, M., J. Valizadeh and M. Jafari. 2011. Identification, distribution and incidence of

important tomato and cucurbits viruses in southeast of Iran. Am. J. Plant Physiol. 6:

242-251.

Varma, A. and V.G. Malathi. 2003. Emerging geminivirus problem: A serious threat to crop

production. Ann. Appl. Biol. 142 (2): 145-164.

Vidavsky, F. and H. Czosnek. 1998. Tomato breeding lines resistant and tolerant to tomato

yellow leaf curl virus issued from Lycopersicon hirsutum. Phytopath. 88: 910-914.

Vidavsky, F., S. Leviatov and J. Milo 1998. Response of tolerant breeding lines of tomato,

Lycopersicon esculentum originating from three different sources (L, peruvianum L,

pimpinellifolium and L, chilense) to early controlled inoculation by tomato yellow

leaf curl virus (TYLCV). Plant Breed. 117: 165-169.

Wallach, D. and B. Goffinet. 1989. Mean squared error of prediction as a criterion for

evaluating and comparing system models. Ecol. Modell. 44: 200-306.

Wan, J., J. Xu, M. Yang, Z. Yang, Q. Huang, S. Zhao. 2012. Effects of three plant extracts on

growth and development of dodder and soybean and on protective enzymes of host.

Legume Genomics Genet. 3(2): 8-13.

Wang, Y., Z. Bao, Y. Zhu and J. Hua. 2009. Analysis of temperature modulation of plant

defense against biotrophic microbes. Mol. Plant Microbe Interact. 22(5): 498-506.

Wege, C. 2007. Movement and localization of tomato yellow leaf curl viruses in the infected

plant. p. 185-206. In: H. Czosnek (ed.) Tomato yellow leaf curl disease. Springer,

Dordrecht. The Netherlands.

Westwood, F., K.M. Bean, A.M. Dewar, R.H. Bromilow and K. Chamberlain. 1998.

Movement and persistence of imidacloprid in sugar-beet plants following application

to pelleted sugar-beet seed. Pestic. Sci. 52: 97-104.

Willmott, C.J. 1982. Some comments on the evaluation of model performance. Bull. Am.

Meteorol. Soc. 63: 1309-1313.

Wu, J.X., H.L. Shang, Y. Xie and X.P. Zhou. 2012. Monoclonal antibodies against the

whitefly transmitted tomato yellow leaf curl virus and their application in virus

detection. J. Integr. Agr. 11(2): 263-268.

Xiliu, J. 2000. Strengthening environmental supervision and management of pesticides. Rural

Eco-Environ. 16(2): 35-38.

Page 142: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Yang, S. and J. Hua. 2004. A haplotype-specific resistance gene regulated by Bonzai1

mediates temperature-dependent growth control in Arabidopsis. Plant Cell. 16: 1060-

1071.

Yassin, A.M. 1975. Epidemics and chemical control of leaf curl disease of tomato in Sudan.

Exp. Agric. 11: 161-165.

Yassin, A.M. 1983. A review of factors influencing control strategies against tomato leaf curl

virus disease in the Sudan. Trop. Pest Manage. 29: 253-256.

Zakay, Y., N. Navot, M. Zeidan, N. Kedar, H. Rabinowitch, H. Czosnek and D. Zamir. 1991.

Screening Lycopersicon accessions for resistance to tomato yellow leaf curl virus

presence of viral DNA and symptom development. Plant Dis. 75: 279-281.

Zeidan, M., S.K. Green, D.P. Maxwell, M.K. Nakhla and H. Czosnek. 1998. Molecular

analysis of whitefly transmitted tomato geminiviruses from southeast and east Asia.

Trop. Agric. Res. Ext. 1(2): 107-115.

Zhang, A., H. Kayser, P. Maienfisch and J.E. Casida. 2000. Insect nicotinic acetylcholine

receptor: Conserved neonicotinoid specificity of [3H] imidacloprid binding site. J.

Neurochem. 75: 1294-1303.

Zhang, Y.P., W.M. Zhu, H.M. Cui, Y. Qiu, K. Sha, Y.H. Wan, L.Y. Zhu, L. Yu and Z. Hui.

2008. Molecular identification and the complete nucleotide sequence of TLCV isolate

from Shanghai of China. Virus Genes. 36: 547-551.

Page 143: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

.

Page 144: A DISEASE PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF …prr.hec.gov.pk/.../1/Muhammad_Ahmad_Zeeshan...UAF.pdfa disease predictive model for the management of bemisia tabaci (genn.) population

Recommended