International Workshop Methanol as fuel & energy storage
Energiportalen and MOT-2030 Lund, Sweden, March 15, 2015
A fossil fuel free vehicle fleet in Sweden 2030: reflections and priorities from a government investigation
Thomas B Johansson Professor em, Lund University
Commissioner, Fossil Fuel free road transport, SOU 2013:84
Background Gov’t Bill to Parliament 2008/09:162
• Presents the vision of a Sweden with a sustainable and resource efficient energy system without net emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere 2050.
• States the long term priority that Sweden 2030 shold have a vehicle fleet that is independent of fossil fuels. This should be seen as a stepping stone towards the 2050 vision.
• In July, 2012, a Commissioner was appointed to propose measures and actions to realize the priority 2030 as art of reaching the vision 2050
• 6 expert groups, secretariate of 5 FTE, intensive consultations,final Report in December 2013.
Explore five areas of measures to see how far measures could contribute towards fossil fuel independence:
1. Stimulate continued societal transition towards reduced and more efficient transport
2. Infrastructure investments and change of traffic mode
3. More energy efficient vehicles
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EU target for 2015
EU fuel efficiency EU fuel efficiency
EU target for 2015
1. Stimulate continued societal transition towards reduced and more efficient transport
2. Infrastructure investments and change of traffic mode
3. More energy efficient vehicles
4. Electrically powered road transport
5. Bio fuels
Explore five areas of measures to see how far measures could contribute towards fossil fuel independence:
Standing volume, annual volume increment and gross fellingsin Swedish forestry
Börjesson, Lundgren, Ahlgren & Nyström (2013)
Swedish potential* of increased biomass production (TWh / yr)
Short termLong
term(30-50 yr)
Tops and branches (GROT) from final felling 3-10 10-17
Stumps from final felling 19 27
GROT from thinning 7-8 11-12
Thin stem wood from early thinning 2 3
Pulp wood – excess (50% of current amount for newsprint paper production) 5-7 5-7
Stem wood – general long-term increase in productivity and standing volume (75)
GROT and stumps – Optimised and site-specific fertilisation on 5% forest land 4-5
Stem wood - Optimised and site-specific fertilisation on 5% forest land (22)
Mix of energy crops on current fallow arable land - 150 000 ha 4-5 4-5Mix of energy crops on excess arable land not needed for feed production - 250 000 ha 7 7
Fast growing broad-leaf trees on abandoned agricultural land - 100 000 to 200 000 ha 2-6
Straw 4 4
Waste and residues for biogas 3-5 3-5
Total 54-67 80-96(177-195)
Börjesson, Lundgren, Ahlgren & Nyström (2013)
* (Including technical, ecological & economic limitations, excluding current biomass utilisation)
From biomass to products
Source: J. Lundgren
Börjesson, Lundgren, Ahlgren & Nyström (2013)
Production chains for biofuels
Låg-inblandning
i bensin
FFV -bilar
Cellulosa-jäsning
Svartluts-förgasning
Etanol
Lignin/Biocrude
HVO/syndieselBiometan
DME
Tunga fordon
Inblandning i diesel
För-gasning
av biomassa
Metanol
Hela försörjningskedjan måste beaktas!
Kritiska utvecklingslinjer
Börjesson, Lundgren, Ahlgren, Nyström (2013)
Production costs – biofuels (Sweden)
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2030A 2030B 2050A 2050B
Energianvändning (TWh)
Utveckling av samhälle och transportsystem
Energieffektivisering (exkl el)
Energieffektivisering (genom el)
Byte till el
Byte till biodrivmedel
Export biodrivmedel
Kvarstående fossil energi
Fossil fuel use for road traffic, with and without measures
Traffic forms by mode of propulsion
Biofuels To increase the use: • Enhanced quota obligation To support new technology and new raw materials: • Framework for the support of certain biofuels (the
price premium model) Both proposals are well developed. • National coordinator to facilitate the introduction of
biofuels.
Obligated quotas
• The Commission proposed implementing the G’t proposal through 2019, possibly with increased levels of biofuels use 2017, 2018 and 2019.
• The G’t proposal was rejected by the EU Commission and the Ministries are now working on a revised quota/taxation scheme
• The Commission proposed a more ambitios quota system be introduced by 2020 that would include also pure biofuels and high blends based on reduction of GHG emissions, or, alternatively, on energy units, and allowing for trade.
New technology using new raw material
• Biofuels from waste products, by-products, cellulose, lignin and hemi-cellulosa
• Challenges: technical, political, oil market, product market, finance, raw materials ….
• EU Directives: energy taxation, fuel quality, state aid, renewable energies ….
the price premium model
• Aims at reducing political risks and oil market risks for producers and to reduce high initial costs
• Framework that guarantees a price premium on the production of biofuels for the first 12 years of the facilities’ production
• The price premium is the difference between a predetermined standard price and the price of diesel fuel in N Europe, incl the carbon tax in Sweden
• The standard price will be phased out by 2025 • The price premium is paid for by the fuel distributors i proportion
to their sales • Implies a somewhat enhanced fuel price during the period the
model is in use • The income of the producer will be the market value of the
product + the price premium.
The Climate Council
• In order to coordinate and engage all important parties, a national council for reduced impact on climate from road traffic is proposed.
• Relevant national authorities, local and regional authorities, the national coordinators for biofuels and electrification, relevant business organizations, academies and research institutions.
• Proposal is inspired by the impact on road safety from the Road Safety Council created in the mid-1990’s.
Systematically exploited synergies
• Significant parts of Swedish industry have world class competencies and can both contribute to and benefit from a targeted climate mitigation effort
• Providing opportunities for Swedish process industry to develop advanced biofuels can increase the offering of fossil free fuels
• Swedish vehicle industry has solutions for improved energy efficiency, engines for biofuels, and electrification. Important to continue to support that development.
The larger picture: multiple benefits
• More secure energy supply • More job opportunities • Improved accessibility in cities • Reduced emissions of air pollutants and noise • Increased physical activity and health • Increased basis for public transport • Reduced land requirements for transport • Improved social integration and equality • Improved road safety • Reduced costs lover time
Thank you!
Eller googla: Fossilfrihet på väg http://www.regeringen.se/sb/d/17075/a/230739
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