A FRAMEWORK FOR

MAJOR EMERGENCY

MANAGEMENT

GUIDANCE DOCUMENT 1

A GUIDE TO RISK ASSESSMENT IN MAJOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

JANUARY 2010

‘A Framework for Major Emergency Management’ (2006) replaces the Frameworkfor Co-ordinated Response to Major Emergency, which has underpinned majoremergency preparedness and response capability since 1984.

The Framework sets out the arrangement, by which the principal responseagencies will work together in the management of large-scale incidents.

This Guide to Risk Assessment in Major Emergency Management is intended tosupport the Framework text and to provide additional guidance on the riskassessment process.

The guideance document is presented as best practice in the area of RiskAssessment for Major Emergency Management. Guidance documents areadministrative instruments not having the force of law and, as such, allow forflexibility in approach. Alternate approaches to the principles and practicesdescribed in this guidance described may be acceptable provided they aresupported by adequate justification. Alternate approaches should be discussed inadvance with the:

M.E.M. Project Team, Fire Services and Emergency Planning Section,Department of the Environment, Heritage & Local Government,Custom House,Dublin 1.

Introduction to A Guide to Risk Assessment

Page

Introduction 3

Part 1 5

The Risk Assessment Process

Part 2 14

Using the Risk Assessment

Tables and Templates 17

Individual Hazard Record Sheet Template 25

List of Figures

Figure 0.1 Five-Stage Emergency Management Paradigm

Figure 1.1 Schematic Risk Assessment Process

Figure 1.2 The Risk Matrix

Figure 2.1(a) The Risk Matrix Zones

Figure 2.1(b) The Risk Matrix Zones

List of Tables and Templates

Table 1 Example to Illustrate Establishing the Context

Table 2 Classification of Likelihood

Table 3 Classification of Impact

Table 4 Hazard Identification Template

Table 5.1 National and International Examples- Natural Hazards

Table 5.2 National and International Examples- Transportation Hazards

Table 5.3 National and International Examples- Technological Hazards

Table 5.4 National and International Examples- Civil Hazards

Contents

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2

Introduction

The systems approach to Major Emergency Management involves a continuouscycle of activity. The principal elements of the systems approach are:

• Hazard Analysis/ Risk Assessment;• Mitigation/ Risk Management;• Planning and Preparedness;• Co-ordinated Response; and• Recovery

FIGURE 0.1Five-Stage Emergency Management Paradigm

Risk Assessment is a process by which the hazards facing a particular communityare identified and analysed/assessed in terms of the threat/risk which they pose.

To prepare effectively for dealing with potential emergencies it is necessary tohave regard to the specific risks faced by a community. Including formal RiskAssessment as part of emergency planning is increasingly recognised as bestpractice nationally and internationally. In the Framework the risk assessmentprocess is used as a basis for the decision-making associated with the otherelements of the emergency management cycle.

The framework requirement is that:

Each principal response agency should, in association with its partner principalresponse agencies, carry out a risk assessment in accordance with theprocedures set down in Section 2 of the Framework and this Guidance. Theinitial rise assessment should be reviewed and updated annually, or ascircumstances require.

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This Guidance sets out a risk assessment procedure that should be applied anddocumented by the principal response agencies as a basis for major emergencymanagement. The risk assessment procedure underpins work in the later stages ofthe emergency management cycle. A significant benefit of the risk assessmentprocess is that it can help establish confidence in the Major EmergencyManagement system, by showing it to be both realistic and logical.

This risk assessment approach is complementary to the principle of an “All-Hazards” approach discussed in Section 1 of the Framework.

Section 2 of the Framework introduced the risk assessment process and defined thefollowing terms (See also Appendix F3):

Hazard: Any phenomenon with the potential to cause direct harm to membersof the community, the environment or to physical infrastructure, orbeing potentially damaging to the economic and social infrastructure.

Impact: The consequences of a hazardous event being realised, expressed interms of a negative impact on human welfare, damage to theenvironment or physical infrastructure or other subsequentconsequences.

Risk: The combination of the likelihood of a hazardous event and itspotential impact.

This guidance is divided into two parts. Part one details the four steps of the riskassessment process while part two provides guidance on how the risk assessmentshould be employed to inform mitigation and detailed planning. A ‘Tables andTemplates’ section is included that contains documents designed to support the riskassessment process. It should be noted that tables and templates do not purportto exhaust all potential possibilities but rather should be used as guides to beadapted to Local/Regional circumstances.

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PART 1- The Risk Assessment Process

It is recommended that the risk assessment process should be carried out initiallyby each principal response agency, before being undertaken and documented byan inter-agency team, working under the aegis of the Regional Steering Group onMajor Emergency Management. The relevant outcomes from the regional processshould be incorporated into each principal response agency’s own majoremergency plan.

The risk assessment comprises four stages as illustrated in Figure 1.1 below:

1. Establishing the context2. Hazard Identification3. Risk Assessment4. Recording potential hazards on a risk matrix

FIGURE 1.1Schematic Risk assessment Process

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Risk Assessment Stages

Stage 1 - Establishing the ContextThe purpose of this stage is to describe the characteristics of the area for which therisk assessment is being completed, as this will influence both the likelihood andthe impact of a major emergency. Establishing the Local/Regional context enablesa better understanding of the vulnerability and resilience of the area toemergencies.

Each principal response agency should undertake an initial local risk assessment.The process begins for each agency by establishing the context in which the riskassessment is taking place.

MethodologyThe team undertaking the risk assessment exercise should consider the national,regional and local contexts which impact on major emergency management intheir area. The outcomes should be recorded in a series of short statements. Toassist in this, the team should reflect on the relevant aspects of their area,considering emerging and potential future trends, in addition to the currentsituation. It will be appropriate also for the team to establish links with bodies thatcould provide relevant information/input for the risk assessment process. Thesecould include bodies such as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), theHealth and Safety Authority (HSA), the Food Safety Authority (FSA), Port andHarbour Authorities, and Airport Authorities.

• Social: Describe the demographic, ethnic and socio-economic compositionof the community. How are the various communities geographicallydistributed within the area? Are there any particularly vulnerable groups inthe community? Are there annual events during which there is an influx ofpeople into the area e.g. Festivals and Concerts? How experienced is thecommunity at coping with different types of emergencies? Is there a strongvolunteer/community support ethos?

• Environment: Is the area to be assessed urban, rural or mixed? Are thereany particular local geographical factors contributing to vulnerabilities? Arethere particularly high-density areas? Are there specific environmentallysensitive/amenity areas? What is the history of events in or adjoining thearea?

• Infrastructure: How is the infrastructure configured in the area - transport(road, rail, air, sea), utilities, business, etc? What are the critical supplynetworks in the area? Are there any sites in the area that are particularlycritical for local, regional or national essential services (e.g.

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telecommunications hubs, power generation, fuel /energy supply, medicalfacilities, educational establishments, head offices of large public orcommercial concerns)? What are the drivers of the economy in the area?

• Hazardous sites: What potentially hazardous sites exist in the area? Whereare they in relation to communities or sensitive environmental areas?

The Regional Context will be established by integrating the statements of all theprincipal response agencies. Relevant details from the regional process could alsobe annotated on a suitably scaled map. An example of a generic output from thisstage is presented in Table 1 below, this should be used in the preparation of riskassessment.

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Table 1- Example to Illustrate Establishing the Context

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Social

Population-major centres Region 350,000 Demography summary

City 1 100,000 % Elderly

Town 1 20,000 % Children

Town 2 10,000 % Ethnic minority/immigrant workers

Primary economic drivers Tourism Express in Euros/% of local economy

Industry List industries with relevant comments

Principal Emergency Services An Garda Síochána Number and location of stations and

relevant comments e.g. station types

HSE HSE Ambulance resources and Hospital

locations with relevant details

Fire Service Number and location of fire stations

and relevant comments e.g. % full

time/ % retained

Environment

Geographical characteristics Area over 3,000 % Urban

square miles % Rural

Forests % Commercial

Main rivers List-show on map

National Parks List-show on map % area covered

Adjacent counties County A

County B

Infrastructure

Transport Types Roads Major routes

Significant congestion points

All land transport of hazardous

material takes place by road

Rail Mainly passenger traffic

Shipping International ferry routes Port activity

Airport Major international/minor terminal

Water Supply Local Authority Relevant details

supply schemes

Treatment plants

Power Supply Generating stations Location and relevant details

Gas Supply Pressure Stations Pipeline location

Hazardous Sites

SEVESO sites Upper Tier Details

Lower Tier Details

Other Industry Details

Stage 2 - Hazard Identification

The generic threats that exist in all communities are sometimes taken for granted(e.g. fires, road traffic accidents, accidents involving transport of people,hazardous materials, building collapse). The purpose at this stage is to review andnote the generic hazards, including any particular features of these specific to theregion, and then to add the hazards that are specific to the local area. Generallyspeaking, the hazards faced fall into four commonly used categories:

• Natural; • Transportation;• Technological;• Civil.

MethodologyUsing the tables provided (see Table 4 in the Tables and Templates) each principleresponse agency should list the hazards that are present in its area. Any hazardsthat appear on the tables that are not relevant should be deleted and new hazardsadded to produce a complete list. Tables listing National and Internationaldisasters by hazard type are presented to illustrate this process (see Tables 5.1 to5.4 in Tables and Templates).

For each identified hazard, the elements of the community that are at risk shouldbe identified. Both the hazards to the community, and their likely point of impact,should emerge from this stage.

Stage 3 - Risk Assessment

The next stage is to consider the overall risks presented by these hazards. Riskassessment starts with an examination of the impact (severity of consequences tolife and health, property and infrastructure, and the environment) of the hazardsidentified. The likelihood (probability) also has to be considered and the resultingjudgement recorded on a risk matrix in the next stage. The basis for making thisjudgement should be set out on the individual hazard record sheet, and shouldinclude sources which influence the judgement (e.g. national/local levelintelligence and advice from available centres of expertise, information from riskholder/risk regulator).

A five-point scale is proposed for categorising both impact and likelihood, rangingas shown in the risk matrix in Figure 1.2. In considering the potential impact of ahazard, it is relevant to take two factors into account, - the type or nature of theimpact, and the scale. The type or nature of impact may be considered in threefields:

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• impact on life, health and residual welfare of a community• social/environmental impact. Social impact may be thought of in terms of

disruption/displacement of people affected by the event, whileenvironmental impact is the impact on the physical area;

• economic impact in terms of costs of property/ infrastructure damage aswell as recovery costs or loss of economic production.

It is also important to take account of the potential for escalation of an event or the‘domino effect’ when combined with other hazards.

A simple approach to assessing likelihood is proposed, expressed in terms of theprobability of an event occurring. This is to reflect the judgement of peopleinvolved in this field, rather than being a strict mathematical probability.

MethodologyEach principal response agency should complete a Hazard Record Sheet (see Tablesand Templates) for each hazard identified in Stage 2. The Hazard Record Sheetprovides a means of recording information about the hazard and its potentialimpact and likelihood, with a view to identifying a likely position on the riskmatrix. Impact guidance sheets (see Tables 4(a)-4(c) in Tables and Templates) forhuman, environmental, infrastructure can be used to achieve a full understandingof the potential impact of each hazard.

When completing the hazard record sheets, agencies should identify areas ofuncertainty where expert technical advice will need to be sought. However, itshould be remembered that this assessment does not require detailed technicalanalysis. An informed estimate, based on experience or existing safety assessment,is all that is required.

The prevention, control and mitigation measures that are already in place shouldbe considered and recorded and, taking these into account, a decision made on theposition of the hazard on the risk matrix.

This process is initially undertaken at individual agency level and then repeated atregional level in a small multi-agency team/s, typically 3 or 4 persons. The hazardrecord sheets produced at inter-agency level should include as much detail as isavailable in relation to the hazard. Where quantitative data is available, it shouldbe used in support of the risk assessment.

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Stage 4 - Recording Potential Hazards on a Risk Matrix

The process proposed for recording the risk assessment is considered in this stage.A five by five matrix (see Figure 1.2), using the scales for impact and likelihoodpresented in Tables 13 and 14 below, is used to present the results of the riskassessment. The process requires the outcome from the risk assessment to berecorded and inserted in the box judged to be most appropriate for the functionalarea under consideration. Multi-agency perspectives can help bring balance to thistask. The risk assessment exercise records, in a readily presentable format, thecombined judgement of the principal response agencies in regard to the identifiedhazards in the area.

FIGURE 1.2

The Risk MatrixMethodologyThe impact and likelihood criteria as outlined in Tables 2 and 3 below are used toposition all the identified hazards on the risk matrix.

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Table 2 - Classification of Likelihood

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Ranking Classification Likelihood

1 Extremely Unlikely May occur only in exceptional circumstances; Once

every 500 or more years

2 Very Unlikely Is not expected to occur; and/or no recorded incidents

or anecdotal evidence; and/or very few incidents in

associated organisations, facilities or communicates;

and / or little opportunity, reason or means to occur;

May occur once every 100-500 years.

3 Unlikely May occur at some time; and /or few, infrequent,

random recorded incidents or little anecdotal

evidence; some incidents in associated or comparable

organisations worldwide; some opportunity, reason or

means to occur; may occur once per 10-100 years.

4 Likely Likely to or may occur; regular recorded incidents and

strong anecdotal evidence and will probably occur

once per 1-10 years

5 Very Likely Very likely to occur; high level of recorded incidents

and/or strong anecdotal evidence. Will probably

occur more than once a year.

Table 3 - Classification of Impact

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Ranking Classification Impact Description

1 Minor Life, Health, Welfare Small number of people affected; no fatalities

and small number of minor injuries with first-

aid treatment.

Environment No contamination, localised effects

Infrastructure <0.5M Euros

Social Minor localised disruption to

community services or infrastructure

(<6 hours).

2 Limited Life, Health, Welfare Single fatality; limited number of people

affected; a few serious injuries with

hospitalisation and medical treatment required.

Localised displacement of a small number of

people for 6-24 hours. Personal support

satisfied through local arrangements.

Environment Simple contamination, localised effects of short

duration

Infrastructure 0.5-3M Euros

Social Normal community functioning with some

inconvenience.

3 Serious Life, Health, Welfare Significant number of people in affected area

impacted with multiple fatalities (<5), multiple

serious or extensive injuries (20), significant

hospitalisation.

Large number of people displaced for 6-24

hours or possibly beyond; up to 500 evacuated.

External resources required for personal

support.

Environment Simple contamination, widespread effects or

extended duration

Infrastructure 3-10M Euros

Social Community only partially functioning, some

services available.

4 Very serious Life, Health, Welfare 5 to 50 fatalities, up to 100 serious injuries, up to

2000 evacuated

Environment Heavy contamination, localised effects or

extended duration

Infrastructure 10-25M Euros

Social Community functioning poorly, minimal

services available

5 Catastrophic Life, Health, Welfare Large numbers of people impacted with

significant numbers of fatalities (>50), injuries in

the hundreds, more than 2000 evacuated.

Environment Very heavy contamination, widespread

effects of extended duration.

Infrastructure >25M Euros

Social Serious damage to infrastructure causing

significant disruption to, or loss of, key services

for prolonged period. Community unable to

function without significant support.

PART 2 - Using the Risk Assessment

While being an intrinsically useful exercise in itself, the risk assessment alsoprovides a sound basis for determining a range of steps at later stages of theemergency management cycle - especially in the Mitigation and the Planning andPreparedness stages. As outlined in section 2 of the Frameworks the risk matrixmay be overlaid by a template, as shown in Figure 2.1(a) and 2.1(b) below, whichshows how the risk assessment can place a potential hazard into either:

• the “normal” emergency zone;• the major emergency zone, at the extremities of which are delineated two

specific areas;

o A Prevent or Mitigate area, where prevention/mitigation of hazards is required

o A Disaster/Extendibility area, where hazards are extremely/ veryunlikely and do not therefore warrant specific preparedness, but canbe responded to by extending the inter-agency arrangements of themajor emergency regime

FIGURE 2.1(a)The Risk Matrix Zones

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FIGURE 2.1(b)The Risk Matrix Zones

MethodologyAn inter-agency group, comprising representatives of An Garda Síochána, theHealth Service Executive and the Local Authorities, should select a range ofapproximately six major emergency scenarios, which will provide a good basis fordevelopment of a robust, All-Hazards major emergency plan. One scenario in theextendibility zone (catastrophic impact, very unlikely) should be included as partof this process. It is recommended that an extreem version of a more likely eventis chosen for this purpose, rather than a potential “freak” or “bizzare” incident.

Consideration should be given to a range of factors in the selection of anappropriate list of scenarios. Scenarios should be chosen that test the responsedimensions and resource requirements towards the limits of those required withinthe major emergency regime. This could mean choosing a particular scenario as avehicle for testing the local requirements for a specific type of response, such asspecialist fire-fighting capability, specialist health-care, e.g. multiple burns orpaediatric casualties, or specialist community care provision. Considerationshould also be given to the rate of development and escalation of the chosenscenarios. This in turn allows the determination of reasonable resourcerequirements in terms of quantity, quality and timing.

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Defining Local Response Dimensions

Each principal response agency should use the chosen scenarios as a basis fordetermining a range of essential response requirements for major emergencies.Response dimensions are qualitative or quantitative statement of the performancerequired of a system or resource to deliver an appropriate response to mitigate theimpact of the emergency.

These responses could cover topics such as:

• Provision of resources or specialist equipment• Number and quality of local responders• Situations where plans or ‘Standard Operating Procedures’ are required for

specific risks• Areas where training and exercising should be focussed• Situations/sites/events where specific protocols need to be established with

third parties such as utility companies• Situations/sites/events where specific arrangements needt o be established

with the private sector.

Once established, the relevant response dimensions should be used to inform theplanning and preparedness stage for the individual agencies. If gaps areidentified, part of the preparedness cycle should involve identifying whereadditional resources may be obtained in an emergency, and ensuring thatarrangements are in place to mobilise them and use them effectively.

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TABLES AND TEMPLATES

It should be noted that these templates are not exhaustive ofall possibilities. They should be used to stimulatediscussions about the functional area where they are to beused. Tables should be edited as appropriate.

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Table 4 Hazard Identification Template

Table 2(b) - Hazard Identification Template-Transportation Hazards

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Natural Hazards

Category Type Sub-type Local Hazard

Meteorological

Hydrological

Geological

Other

Transportation Hazards

Aviation

Rail

Road

Water

Technological Hazards

IndustialAccidents

Explosions

Fires

BuildingCollapse

HazardousSubstance

Pollution/Contamination

Table 4 Hazard Identification Template (cont..)

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Civil Hazards

Category Type Sub-type Local Hazard

Civil Disorder/Disturbance

Major CrowdSafety

Mass Shooting

Loss of CriticalInafrastructure

Food SituationCrisis

Water Supply

Epidemics andPandemic

AnimalDisease

Missing Persons

Table 5.1 National and International Examples - Natural Hazards

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Category Type Sub-type Irish Examples International Examples

Meteorological Storm/ Hurricane/ Storm on Severe Gales Cyclone Christmas Eve 1997

Tornado (local)

Heavy Snow Blizzards Jan 1982

Severe Cold/ Frost Icy RoadsHypothermia

Thunder and Lightning Storms

Dense/persistentfog

Heat Wave/ Heat WaveDrought France 2003

Hydrological Flooding Coastal/Tidal SE Coast Nov 2004 UK/ NL 1953Dublin Nov 2002

Heavy Rain Inland Clonmel Nov 2004 Prague 2002

Geological Earthquake Kobe 1995Turkey 1999Bam, Iran 2003

Tsunami Ireland 1750s SE Asia Dec 04

Volcano Krakatoa 1887Mount St Helens

Other Landslide Polathomais 2003 Aberfan 1967Derrybrien 2003

Land Cave in

Reservoir/ Dam-burst

Forest/ Donegal Easter Portugal/France 2003Wilderness fire 2003

Space debris/meteor etc

Table 5.2 National and International Examples - Transportation Hazards

Table 3(a) Natural and International Examples -Natural Hazards

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Category Type Illustrative Irish Examples International ExamplesExample

Aviation Aircraft collision/ Mid-air Air-India 1985 Lockerbie 1997loss

Low-speed Shannon 1953 British Midland 1989(near Airport)

Airport incident Frankfurt 1998Paris CdeG 2003

Aviation security Hijacking

Rail Mainline Cherryville 1983 December 2000Buttevant 1982Roscommon 2001

DART/ Suburban

Tram Luas/Bus Crash Sept 2009

Haz Mat/ Goods

Tunnel / Bridge Mont Blanc, Kaprun etc. tunnel fires; Germany, Austria, Switzerland.

Road Multiple vehicle RTA

Bus

Motorway M7 Pileup March 2007

Tunnel

Hazmat

Bridge Rathcoole 2004

Water Marine Ferry Rosslare Ferry Swedish Ferry 2007Feb 2003 Zeebrugge March 1987

Port Dublin Bay collision

Inland Waterways Pleasure craft/ Marchioness London 1987cruises

Pollution Kowloon Bridge Braer January 19931986Princess Eva Spanish Coast Feb 2003 Feb 2003

Table 5.3 National and International Examples - Technological Hazards

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Category Type Illustrative Irish Examples International ExamplesExample

Industrial Explosions Hicksons 1994 Toulouse 2004Accidents Flixboro 1974

Seveso 1976

Petrochemical Fires WalesBrucefield 2005

Industrial Fires LPG tank fire Belmullet 1999Edgeworthstown 1995

Gas Emission Bhopal 1984

Fluid Emission Pipeline leak Sandoz 1986Fire-water run-off

Explosions Domestic Natural gas Raglan House 1984 Belgium 2004explosion

Bomb Omagh 1998 Madrid 2004Dublin 1974

LPG BLEVEs

Pipelines/Platforms Piper Alpha 1988

Fires Stardust 1981 Gothenberg 1998Bundoran 1980 Netherlands 2000Whiddy 1979

Building Collapse Raglan House 1984

Chemical Accident at site

Transportation accident

Weapons

Biological Leak/ Weapons Anthrax scares 2001

Nuclear Accident Chernobyl 1986Three Mile Island 1990

Radiological Fire at storagesite/ dirty bomb

Pollution/ Air/Water Pollution Hicksons 1994 Basil Fire 1986Contamination

Space Debris

Mining

Table 5.4 National and International Examples - Civil Hazards

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Category Type Illustrative Irish Examples International ExamplesExample

Civil Disorder/ Lansdowne Road G8 summitsDisturbance Intl Soccer 1995

Major Crowd (movement, Pop Concerts Lansdowne Road Ibrox 1971Safety crushing etc) Sports events 2005 Heysel Stadium

Fireworks 29 May 1985displaysAirshows

Terrorism Bombs Car-bombs Dublin/Monaghan 1974

Bombs in buildings

Fire-bombing

CBRN as weapons

Disruption Bomb scares

Mass shooting Dunblane 1996Columbine 1999

Loss of Critical Energy and Electricity CanadaInfrastructure Power Supply Italy

London

Natural Gas

Fuel Oil

Communications PSTN: Mobiles: Web

Food Situation Food Crisis Contamination

Water Supply Shortage Contamination

Epidemics and Communicable Swineflu 2009 Flu pandemicspandemic diseases

Animal Disease Foot & Mouth Avian Influenza2001

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INDIVIDUAL HAZARDRECORD SHEET TEMPLATE

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INDIVIDUAL HAZARD

RECORD SHEET TEMPLATE

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INDIVIDUAL HAZARD RECORD SHEET

HAZARD CATEGORY SUB-CATEGORY

Hazard Description Hazard Location

Date: Review Date:

1. Overview of Hazard

2. Key Historical Evidence

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3. Assessment of Impact and Likelihood

4. Position on Risk Matrix

5. Prevention/Control/Mitigation Measures in Place

6. Risk Management Approach: Prevention/Control/Mitigation Measures Required

Hazard Impact Likelihood

Human Environment Physical Speed of Welfare Infrastructure Development/

Escalation

Minor Minor Minor Minor Very Likely

Limited Limited Limited Limited Likely

Serious Serious Serious Serious Unlikely

Very Serious Very Serious Very Serious Very Serious Very Likely

Catastrophic Catastrophic Catastrophic Catastrophic Extremely Unlikely

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