A Framework for Understanding Food Systems

Foresight and Scenario Analysis

Understanding Foresight

Food Systems Foresight

Food security and stability, migration, transparency

Inclusive Growth

Infrastructure and innovation

key to ag Large employer

Water use, on farm solar

Reducing water use in ag, reducing pollution

Ag is key to empowerment

Food and Nutrition security

Healthy Diet

Paying for education

Sustainably feeding cities

Ag impact on biodiversity and soils

Demand on fisheries, healthy

diets

Food waste

Climate resilient ag, reducing agifood

emissions

Inclusive Growth

Governance of food systems

Food

Systems

Transformations in (agri) food systems will impact on all SDGs

Why Foresight4Food

Exercise

• Think quietly (3mins):• What does foresight mean to you?• What do think it would mean to somebody

else?• What is fundamental question you have

about foresight methodology / approaches

• Share with your neighbor (5minutes)• At the table make a list of 5 critical

questions about foresight and scenarios methodology you would like to discuss (10 minutes0

Basic Definitions

foresight: the ability to judge correctly what is going to happen

in the future and plan your actions based on this knowledge (Cambridge dictionary)

“Thinking through [scenario] stories, and talking in depth

about their implications, brings each person’s unspoken

assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are

thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our

‘mental models’ about the world and lifting the ‘blinders’ that

limit our creativity and resourcefulness.”Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World

Some Resources For Getting Started

Foresight in Context

Foresight

Governance

Systems Thinking(complexity)

Human Cognition

Deeper Inspirations

Anticipatory Governance

• Shared perspectives of what constitutes a desirable future

• Governing with a longer-term perspective for current and future generations

• Identifying and responding to drivers and trends that threaten or support desired futures• Dampening negatives

• Amplifying positives

• Exploring possible/plausible futures and creating mechanisms of resilience and risk management for different scenarios

• Being aware of and mitigating for “tipping points”

• Looking for “weak signals” that foreshadow “black swans” low probability high impact events

Framework for Understanding Foresight

Challenges of perceiving and anticipating the future

Now

Methodology

Bias

Frames

Values

Information

Human Perception and Understanding

”real” world of socio-ecological interactions

Future

Drivers

Dynamics of complex adaptive Systems

Windows on the World

turbulenceunpredictability uncertainty Noveltyambiguity

An initial framing

Dimensions of Foresight

Qualitative

QuantitativeParticipatory

Understanding the System of Analysis

Conceptual Model

Boundaries

Drivers, Trends and Uncertainties

“Stream Trains” “Black Swans”

Easily perceived drivers and trends that will influence change - direct and indirect

Rare and/or unpredictable events that have a big impact

Risks and Opportunities

Systemic Risks

Transformational Opportunities

Steam Trains Black Swans

Systemic Risks

Transformational opportunities

Computational Models and Data Sets

IMPACT - The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IFPRI)

GLOBIOM - Global Biosphere Management Model (IIASA)

MOSAICC - Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change (FAO

PEM - Policy Evaluation Model (OECD)

MAGNET Modular Applied GeNeralEquilibrium Tool

CARPRI - Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis

PBL landuse model

FAO Stats

IFPRI Datasets

OECD agricultural Data

African Growth and Development Policy modeling consortium (AGRODEP)

World Bank Open Data

UNdata

WHO data repository

National Statistics

Models Data Sets

Scenarios

A description of how the future may unfold according to an explicit, coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces.

Types of scenarios

• Predictive

• Explorative

• Normative

(Backcasting)

Different ways of mapping scenarios

Scenario Planning Guidance Note Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre, (UK) Government Office for Science

Examples of Scenarios

Influencing Change (Theories of change)

Exercise

What is needed to improve the understanding, approaches and methodology for food systems foresight (5 key ideas)

Write each ideas on a separate post-it note

Sharing Structure

Outcomes Activities Key Partners

Purpose/Goal:

Necessary Resources:

Minimalist OptionCashKind

Ideal OptionCashKind

Time Line Quick Wins Moblising Adding On

Justification: