Peter Harris
National President
Australian Market & Social Research Society (AMSRS)
A HIDDEN TRUTH ABOUT AUSTRALIAN CONSUMERS PETER HARRIS | MANAGING DIRECTOR
June 2011
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Trusted Admired Exciting
Public Rating of Professions
Nu
rses
Law
yers
Aid
Wo
rker
s Pa
rkin
g In
spec
tors
Stu
nt
Pers
on
s
Mar
ket
Res
earc
her
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
telephone online
Decline in Response Rates
Peter Harris
National President
Australian Market & Social Research Society (AMSRS)
A HIDDEN TRUTH ABOUT AUSTRALIAN CONSUMERS
18
Australia is the “lucky country”, right?
Spirit of innovation | Having a go | Mateship | Good humour |Taking a stand
Unemployment in Australia is low
Last data point: 15.07.2010 Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
Jan 90 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10
Unemployment rate
(in %)
Real AUD/USD
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Log (Real AUD/USD) Average +/-1 S.D.
Sources: Datastream, Credit Suisse
Real AUD/JPY
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Log (Real AUD/JPY) Average +/-1 S.D.
Sources: Datastream, Credit Suisse
Monetary conditions point to a slowdown
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
YoY% Change in Real GDP (LHS) MCI (RHS, Inverted, Led 4Q)
Sources: Bloomberg, Datastream, Credit Suisse
Consumers are choosing to deleverage
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007 2013
HEW (% Inc) Change in Housing Credit (% Inc)
Change in Housing Stock (% Inc)
Sources: Bloomberg, Datastream, Credit Suisse
Personal messages from CEO’s
5% cut for Senior Mgt so that those earning under $100k can keep their jobs and receive a small increase
69% of Australians believe the economic
conditions in Australia are good
More males believe
conditions are good while
females are more unsure
Gen Y are more optimistic about our economic
future than Gen X; believing economic
conditions will improve in the next 6 months
Is it any wonder retail spend is down? Over 3 successive quarters women are less optimistic than men Impacting consumer spending patterns More worried about retirement resources Rely more on partners partially for financial support 1 in 4 families with children in childcare works for no financial gain despite receiving some level of govt support Post GFC employment levels of men recovered more quickly than women Source : CBA Economic Vitality Report March 2011
1%
4%
7%
9%
12%
13%
25%
29%
Invest in mutual funds
Invest in individual stocks
Spend on personal items …
Put towards a big purchase …
Spend on a Holiday
Cover daily expenses …
Save (in a bank account)
Pay down debt
Avoiding risk
If given $1000, the average Australian
would put the money towards…
Gen X are most likely to use the money to pay off debt whilst boomers are most
likely to spend on a holiday
17% would use 100% of that money to pay off debt while only 1% would
put 100% of the money towards purchasing personal items
Sir Ralph admitted his bank had suffered significant damage to its brand due to the unprecedented public fury at last week's rise – November 2010
47% distrust the Liberal party
48% distrust the Labor party
60% distrust the Greens
Base: All respondents (n=1021) Conducted via Your Source National Omnibus Jan 2011 Weighted to Australian Population
49% of Australians trust Julia Gillard
39% trust Tony Abbott
More males trust our first female PM than females
Base: All respondents (n=1021) Conducted via Your Source National Omnibus Jan 2011 Weighted to Australian Population
the formation of opinion. Citizen journalism combined with the 24 hour news
Bernard Salt Demographer and Columnist The Australian, August 2010
just apply in Australia. It applies in almost every
compelling evidence to suggest that this popularity can
Lachlan Harris
Sunday Telegraph Sunday 25th 2011
http://hispanic-marketing.com/blog/advertising/mobile-location-based-services-market-to-exceed-12bn-by-2014-says-juniper-research/
Power of Location
A general lack of trust
Increased levels of public scrutiny ; and
The changing media landscape
are making it more difficult for brands and politicians to stand out and communicate
effectively
“We are witnessing a transformation
in consumer behavior, as people
change the way they shop”
Matt Glasner
Experian Marketing Services
“Visits by Australian shoppers to
daily deal websites such as
CatchOfTheDay and Cudo have
soared by more than 1000 per cent
in the in the past year.
SMH 25 May 2011
A discount rate of 20– 40% would encourage men to enter a store
whilst discounts between 40-60% are needed to encourage women
Base: All respondents (n=1021) Conducted via Your Source National Omnibus Jan 2011 Weighted to Australian Population
THE NEXT CONSUMER
REVOLUTION
• This is a fundamental shift not cyclical
• Community driven, not so individually driven
• Calmness and simplicity rather than stress
and complexity
• Out: competition, power, control, conflict,
command
• In: generosity, close circles, people, leaders
and brands that listen
What happens to our social arrangements (substitute research) when every photo can be
recognised, geo-located and individuals tracked? What happens to shops when every price
can be compared? What happens to conversations when it’s all recorded, or any fact is a 5
sec voice search away from being checked? - TOM HUME, MANAGING DIRECTOR OF FUTURE PLATFORMS
THE FUTURE
Well said.
“It’s research Jim but not as we know it.”
Mrs Spock http://mrsspock.deviantart.com/art/Quickly-drawn-Spock-27657580