UNDERSTANDING THE RISK AND OPPORTUNITY LANDSCAPE

A holistic approach to the resilience of London’s infrastructure

Dr William Hynes, Managing Director, Future Analytics ConsultingBase London - 26 June 2014, Guildhall, London

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Presentation overview

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The Issue of Urbanisation

Urbanisation and Security

London’s Challenges

Urban Resilience – Towards a Holistic Approach

The Emerging Resilience Agenda

The HARMONISE Project

Concluding Points and Introduction to the Fringe Session

the issue of Urbanisation... “The world’s most important phenomenon”

- Hoornweg, D. et al, 2010

191310% of the

world’s populationlived in cities

201350% of the

world’s populationliving in cities

205075% of the

world’s populationwill live in cities

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1911

2011

Life in London (100 years of change)

Inner London - 4,997,741Outer London - 2,160,134Greater London - 7,157,875

POPULATION 1911 POPULATION 2011

Inner London - 3,231,900Outer London - 4,942,100Greater London - 8,173,900

the issue of Urbanisation... “The world’s most important phenomenon”

- Hoornweg, D. et al, 2010

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analyticsUrbanisation and Security

Processes of urbanisation intersect with multiple issues within the security arena, including:

Food security; Human security; Energy security; Climate change & natural disasters; Public health & disease; and, Economic development & trade.

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The future resilience of urban infrastructure - safeguards of global stability or amplifiers of cascading

shocks?

The Complex Urban Environment

Cities and their supporting infrastructures are increasingly interconnected and interdependent

London’s ChallengesFuture Growth Options for London

By 2030 London is expected to

have grown by an extra Borough

every 3 years

= population of 38 Boroughs within 33 boroughs of space.

201350% of the

world’s populationliving in cities

London’s ChallengesHousing Affordability

In 2013, house prices in

London were rising 6

times as fast as income

£517

£653£175,826

£509,000

london

nATIONALLY

Weekly Earnings House Prices

2013 2013

londonAverage

england average

London’s Challenges

Demand for the Tube

has grown by over 10% in the last five years

alone.

Infrastructure Demand

In 2013 London Underground carried 1.265bn passengers (an extra 36 million from 2012)

London’s Challenges

7% x7London retains just 7% of taxation to invest in

infrastructure – New York for example x7 that amount

Infrastructure Investment

urban resilience

the capacity of a city’s economic, social, political and physical infrastructure systems to absorb shocks and stresses and still retain their basic function and structure

ResilientCity.org (2010)

“ “”

Definition

urban resilience

President Policy Directive 21 - Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience February 12, 2013 USA

...the ability to prepare for and adapt to changing conditions... the ability to withstand and recover... “

”

Other Definitions Relating to Resilience

Quality of a system

Strategy

Process

Policy

Way of thinking

Approach

Concept

Principle

Resilience

is a..

urban resilience10 Perceptions

Practice

Response

The grouping of the

perceptions

”The Resilience Cycle

Integrated resilience cycle

recovery: Resourcefulness

and rapidity

Mitigation: robustness and redundancy

Preparedness: robustness and redundancy

Response: Resourcefulness

and rapidity

2

1

4

3

Evolving Scope and Focus

The Emerging Resilience Agenda:

Curitiba, Brazil

Copenhagen, Denmark

Oslo, Norway

Christchurch, New Zealand

Rotterdam, the Netherlands

London, UK

Evolving Scope and Focus

1 & 2

1

4

4

3

1 & 2

”Curitiba -Sustainable, innovative urban planning

Copenhagen - Towards carbon neutrality

Natural Disaster Recovery -A Stronger, More Resilient New York

Rotterdam - Measuring success in security enhancement

San Francisco -First Chief Resilience Officer

London -The Olympics Legacy

The Resilience Cycle Evolving Scope and Focus

The Ongoing Debate: Security Vs. Efficiency?

Beijing – Airport Style Security at Subway Stations – May 2014

The Regjeringskvartalet Site , Oslo (Governmental Quarter)

Dispersing government buildings or maintaining their close integration –

The Resilience Cycle Is this type of efficiency a risk?

[there is] a mounting recognition that disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and sustainable development are inextricably linked. These issues present mutually dependant challenges, which require collaborative, integrated strategies, strong governance, and innovative technological and financial solutions

UNISDR, 2012

“”

THE NEED FOR HArMONISATION: WITHIN LONDON

The Reason Why

The capacity of large scale urban built infrastructure to withstand, resist or reduce the impacts of sudden extreme events in terms of magnitude, duration and external effects

“” www.harmonise.eu

Introducing HARMONISE

THE NEED FOR HArMONISATION: WITHIN LONDON

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 312013

Planning, Design &

Construction

Temporary Event or Activity

Management & Operation

Integrated resilience cycle

recovery: resourcefulness

and rapidity

Mitigation: robustness and redundancy

Preparedness: robustness and redundancy

Response: resourcefulness

and rapidity

Introducing HARMONISE

HARMONISING into the resilience cycle

THE NEED FOR HArMONISATION: WITHIN LONDON

You are invited to a fringe event ‘Global Infrastructure Resilience:

How to Proactively Secure London’s Future’ Panel Discussion will take place in the The Print Room, Guildhall

at 1.00 – 1.45pm

Full conference lunch available at this event.

Thank You