A joint report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime and the

Latin America and the Caribbean Region of the World Bank

Crime, Violence and Development:

trends, costs and policy options in the Caribbean

Outline…

Conventional and organized crime in the Caribbean: patterns and trends

Why is the Caribbean so violent? Development impacts In-depth analyses:

Youth violence Deportees Drug trafficking Gun trafficking Criminal justice reform

Some policy recommendations

Homicide rates by world region, 2002

Great heterogeneity in levels, similar trends

91

7479

33

51

67

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1999 2000 2001

Mur

ders

per

100

,000

Police Ministry of Health

Homicide rates in Guyana: Police and Public Health Sources

Source: Guyana Bureau of Statistics, 2005.

Murders per 100,000 Population: Anguilla

10

0

10

0 0

9

0

1716

8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Pol

ice

reco

rded

mur

ders

per

100

,000

Source: Anguilla Statistics Unit

Assault Rates in Caribbean and Comparison Countries

2.5

10

93

103

219

754

1697

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Singapore

Worldwide Average

Dominica

Barbados

J amaica

Swaziland

Bahamas

Recorded Assaults per 100,000 population

Source: Crime Trends Surveys – United Nations (various years).

Rape Rates in Caribbean and Comparison

Countries

0

15

18

25

34

45

51

112

121

133

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Saudi Arabia

Worldwide Average

Trinidad and Tobago

Barbados

Dominica

St. Kitts and Nevis

J amaica

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Swaziland

Bahamas

Reported Incidents of Rape per 100,000

Source: Crime Trends Surveys – United Nations (various years).

Share of Cocaine Flowing to the United States by Transport Corridors

59 5466 72 72 77

90 88

30 4333 26 27 22

10 12

11 3 1 2 1 1

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Sha

re o

f co

cain

e

Central America/Mexico Caribbean Direct

Source: U.S. National Drug Intelligence Center, various years.

Kidnappings per 100,000 Population in Trinidad and Tobago

10

12

10

1718

13

19

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

# of

kid

napp

ings

per

100

,000

pop

ulat

ion

Homicide rates and inequality

R2=0.249R2=0.249

Dominican Republic

Guyana

HaitiJamaica

Trinidad & Tobago

Dominican Republic

Guyana

HaitiJamaica

Trinidad & Tobago

110

100

Ho

mic

ide

s p

er 1

00,

000

popu

latio

n

.2 .3 .4 .5 .6Gini coefficient of income inequality

R2=0.249

Homicide rates and education

Barbados

Dominican Republic

Guyana

Jamaica

Trinidad & TobagoBarbados

Dominican Republic

Guyana

Jamaica

Trinidad & Tobago

110

10

0H

om

icid

es

per

10

0,0

00 p

opu

latio

n

2 4 6 8 10 12Average years of education for adults

R2=0.289

Cross-Country Determinants of Crime Rates

Variable

Constant 0.914 ** -1.107 ** 0.998 ** -1.108 **(0.458) (0.531) (0.453) (0.527)

Lagged dependent variable 0.833 ** 0.902 ** 0.808 ** 0.891 **(0.038) (0.031) (0.039) (0.032)

Growth rate -0.017 * -0.026 ** -0.017 * -0.026 **(0.010) (0.012) (0.010) (0.011)

Average income (log) -0.089 ** 0.174 ** -0.094 ** 0.178 **(0.040) (0.050) (0.039) (0.050)

Income inequality 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002(0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005)

Caribbean dummy 0.343 ** 0.264 *(0.139) (0.148)

Number of countries 61 54 61 54Number of observations 182 179 182 179R-squared 0.746 0.878 0.754 0.880

Homicide rate

Robbery rate

Homicide rate

Robbery rate

(1) (2) (3) (4)

Summary of Micro-Analysis of Risk Factors for Criminal Victimization

Dominican Republic Haiti

Violent Crime

(Murder)

Property Crime

(Robbery)

Property Crime

(Burglary/ Mugging)

Property Crime

(Burglary/Mugging)

Household-levelConsumption/income - + + +Female-headed + - not sig. not sig.Young men + - not sig. not sig.Education level + - + not sig.

Community/province-level Consumption/income - + not sig. n/aInequality not sig. not sig. - n/aFemale-headed + + - n/aYoung men + + + n/aEducation level - - + n/aPopulation density + - + n/aUrban + + + +Reporting rate - - not sig. n/a

Jamaica

Note: + and – refer to sign of statistically significant coefficients from probit regressions of household victimization

1.8% 1.7%

5.4% 5.4%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

DominicanRepublic

Guyana Haiti Jamaica

Incr

ease

in A

nnua

l Per

Cap

ita I

ncom

e G

row

th

Boost to Annual Economic Growth Rate: Reducing Homicide Rate to Costa Rican Level

Impact of Crime on Business Practices in Jamaica

13%

18%

22%

37%

39%

51%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Other

Increased cost of servicespurchased

Negative impact on workerproductivity

Negative impact oninvestments to improve

productivity

Negative impact on plans forbusiness expansion

Increased cost of security

% of Firms Reporting "Significant", "Somewhat Significant", or "Highly Significant" Impact

Source: 2001 Firm Victimization Survey, described in Francis et al. (2003).

Cross-Country Regression Estimates: Effect of Violent Crime on Economic Growth

Source: World Bank (2006b).Notes: Standard errors are shown in parentheses. * significant at 5% level

Variable Estimates

Income -0.1362* (.017) Inequality 0.0013* (.0005) Male education 0.0120 (.0168) Female education -0.0084 (.0179) Price level of investment 0.0000 (.0001) Homicide rate -0.0021* (.0006)

Period Dummies Yes Countries 28 Observations 32

Reducing crime pays:

If the Caribbean were to reduce its homicide rate by one-third…

…per capita economic growth could more than double.

Youth as victims of violence: homicide rates

Country Year Total All

Ages Males

All Ages Female

Male Age15-29

Female Age15-29

Bahamas 1995-1997 14.9 26.1 -- 48.4 --

Brazil 1995a 16.7 23.0 4.1 81.2 6.5

Chile 1994 3.0 5.4 0.8 6.7 --

Cuba 1997 6.2 9.6 2.7 18.4 5.7

Colombia 1995 61.6 116.8 9.0 212.5 15.0

Dominican Republic

2002a

2005b 10.2 26.41

19.7 49.9

2.12

4.4

35.3

--

3.22

--

El Salvador 1993 55.6 108.4 8.4 133.1 8.8

Guyana 1994-1996 6.6 11.8 -- -- --

Jamaica 2004a 55.7 102.1 10.5 188.0 14.8

Trinidad and Tobago

1994 12.1 17.1 6.6 21.6 --

LAC average 19.3 34.7 4.0 68.6 6.4

United States 1998 6.9 10.7 3.1 23.6 4.6

Canada 1997 1.4 1.9 1.0 3.2 1.1

World 8.8 13.6 4.0 19.4 4.4

Source: World Health Organization. 2003. World Report on Health and Violence. Geneva. a: Based on data obtained from World Health Organization (August 2006). b: Estimates from National Police Statistics.

Num

ber

of d

eath

s

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29Age

2005

2002

2000

Num

ber

of d

eath

s

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29Age

2005

2002

2000

Num

ber

of d

eath

s

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29Age

2005

2002

2000

Homicide Deaths by Age in the Dominican Republic, 2000-2005

Source: Dominican Republic National Police, unpublished data

Criminal Deportations from the U.S. to the

Caribbean: 1993-2005

Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security

Criminal Deportees from the U.S. per 100,000 Population of Home Country

Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security, 2005

Criminal Deportations to Jamaica by Source Country: 1998-2004

Source: Social and Economic Survey of Jamaica, various

years.

Deportees and Murders in Jamaica:

1998-2004

010002000300040005000600070008000

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Crim

inal

Dep

orta

tio

ns

0

500

1000

1500 Nu

mb

er o

f Mu

rd

ers

Canada deportees (left axis)

UK deportees (left axis)

USA deportees (left axis)

Murders (right axis)

Source: Social and Economic Survey of Jamaica; Jamaica Constabulary Force.

Criminal Deportees to Jamaica from All Source

Countries by Crime Type: 2001-2004

Firearms and violent crime

11%Robbery, burglary,

larceny4%

Other4%

Fraud and immigration

43%

Drugs38%

4783

1366495

488

5385

Source: Calculated from Social and Economic Survey of Jamaica, various years

Age on Deportation from the U.S. of Jamaican Criminal Deportees

Source: Headley et al, 2005.

Summary of Policy Recommendations

Good policy requires good information GIS data for policing and integrated programs (in

larger cities) Victimization surveys

Reformed and revitalized criminal justice systems are essential Reform of legislation is only the first step;

institutions matter Performance indicators are crucial step toward

professionalization and performance management

But avoid exclusive reliance on criminal justice systems; prevention initiatives can be highly cost-effective

Negative externalities for the Caribbean are clear in the case of: Drug trafficking Deportees Guns

Gun control is crucial to decrease the lethality of violent crime Gun registries, marking, tracking Interdiction in ports

Priority areas for policy research What works (especially in the area of youth

violence prevention) Role of deportees in crime