Dr. Laércio M. NamikawaEymar S.S. Lopes

A Natural Disaster Monitoring and

Warning System

SISMADEN

ABCC Program Workshop – Ottawa, September 2010

Natural Disasters in BrazilPrincipais Desastres Naturais no Brasil 2000-2007

14%

3%

6%

58%

11%8%

Seca Epidemia Temperatura Extrema

Inundação Deslizamento Vendavais

Source (adpated): Vulnerabilidade Ambiental / Rozely Ferreira dos Santos, organizadora. – Brasilia: MMA, 2007. 192 p. : il. color. ; 29 cm.

Principais Desastres Naturais no Brasil 2000-2007

14%

3%

6%

58%

11%8%

Seca Epidemia Temperatura Extrema

Inundação Deslizamento Vendavais

DroughtsFloods

EpidemicLandslides

Extreme temperatureHigh winds

Pernambuco and Alagoas

Pernambuco and Alagoas

June/2010

57 deaths

95 municipalities

Niterói, Rio de Janeiro

http://noticias.uol.com.br/album/1

00406rio_album.jhtm

Niterói, RJ – April/2010

Niterói, Rio de Janeiro

Morro da

Carioca -

Angra dos

Reis

Jan/01/2010

Ilha Grande

Angra dos Reis

http://noticias.uol.com.br/ultnot/agencia/2010/01/04/ult4469u51182.jhtm

CBERS Feb/21/2010

Fusion CBERS CCD-HRC

Damage Assessment

Comparison

Jul/16/2008 Feb/21/2010

GOES Enhanced Image

www.cptec.inpe.br

Center for Weather Forecast

and Climate Studies - CPTEC

Observations by SatelliteTRMM – Estimated Rain

Forecast 24h Total Precipitation

Run Dec/31/2010 12:00 GMT

for 01/Jan/2010 - Eta-20 km

Observation

Data Collect Platform

Weather

Radar

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

12

/27

/20

09

00

:00

:00

12

/27

/20

09

08

:00

:00

12

/27

/20

09

16

:00

:00

12

/28

/20

09

00

:00

:00

12

/28

/20

09

08

:00

:00

12

/28

/20

09

16

:00

:00

12

/29

/20

09

00

:00

:00

12

/29

/20

09

08

:00

:00

12

/29

/20

09

16

:00

:00

12

/30

/20

09

00

:00

:00

12

/30

/20

09

08

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:00

12

/30

/20

09

16

:00

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12

/31

/20

09

00

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12

/31

/20

09

08

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12

/31

/20

09

16

:00

:00

01

/01

/20

10

00

:00

:00

01

/01

/20

10

08

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01

/01

/20

10

16

:00

:00

01

/02

/20

10

00

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01

/02

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10

08

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01

/02

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10

16

:00

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01

/03

/20

10

00

:00

:00

Chuva Horária

Chuva Acum.24h

100 mm total in 24h

31/12/2009 – 9:00

140 mm total in 24h

31/12/2009 – 16:00

173 mm total in 24h

01/01/2009 – 8:00

Rain Gauge at Angra dos ReisSource: Eletronuclear

Hourly

Total in 24h

Research and Development in

Geoinformatics1974: I-100

1986: SITIM and SGI

1991: SPRING 1.0

1996: SPRING 3.0

2010: SPRING 5.1.6

2002: TerraLib 1.0

2007: TerraLib 3.0

2010: TerraLib 3.5

Technological Support

Geographical database and manipulation by

TerraLib: www.terralib.org

Spatial Analysis

AdditionalInformation

Natural DisasterRisks

Alerts

Hydrology and Meteorology

Observations and Forecasts

Extreme Event

Risk Areas

Automatically Generated Alerts

U

s

e

r

s

Actions

Natural Disaster Monitoring and Alert

SystemOpen Source Computational System based on

service oriented architecture

Provides technological infrastructure to develop

operational systems to manage alerts of

environmental risks

Services:

Data gathering and formatting

Analysis by comparison with risk layers or by executing

models

Risk model edition for alerts

Alert handling and management

Natural Disasters Monitoring and Alert

System

• Who are the users?

– System Operators

• Organization that monitor the possibility of disaster

events

• Operate on Administration and Configuration

interfaces

• Insert static data using TerraView

Natural Disasters Monitoring and Alert

System

• Who are the users?

– Alert Clients

• Representatives with authority to execute prevention

and mitigation actions in disaster events

• Receive alerts in http, e-mail, sms

WEB Sitehttp://www.dpi.inpe.br/sismaden/english

Download

Spatial Analysis

AdditionalInformation

Natural DisasterRisks

Alerts

Hydrology and Meteorology

Observations and Forecasts

Extreme Event

Risk Areas

Ilha Grande

January/2010

U

s

e

r

s

Actions

Hydro-

estimator

Municipalities

Forecast20x20Km Grid

Precipitation 24h

Configure Climate Data

Hydro-

estimator

on GOES

Image

Every 15

minutes

Configure Risk Map

Simple Risk Map

Municipalities

Inserted using

TerraView

Polygons

Risk Levels

Configure Risk Analysis

local var1 = media_eta('eta20', 24)

if var1 == nil or var1 < 10 then

return 0 – Normal

elseif var1 < 20 then

return 1 – Observation

elseif var1 < 30 then

return 2 – Attention

elseif var1 < 50 then

return 3 – Alert

else

return 4 – Maximum Alert

end

Alert Sent by Email• Dear User,

There was a change in the Alert Level of one or more regions of the risk map,

from one of the analysis you are linked to. See below a complete report of

changes:

Analysis Name: Analise_Municipios_Hidroestimador

Risk Areas

• ID Name Previous Alert Level Current Alert Level

• 01 Angra dos Reis 2 3

• 02 Ilha Grande 2 3

• 03 Parati 1 2

IMAGE attached to the report –

31/12/2009 – 14:00 h

Warnings31/12/2009 – from 10:00 to 14:00

Improving Risk Maps

Terrain Morphology

Terrain Gradient

Land Use Classification

Land Use Classification

Detailed Risk Map

Polygon: Slope Units

Where: There is Urban Use and

Convex or Plane morphology and

Gradient greater than 30 percent

Future Developments

Inclusion of Dynamic Models - TerraME and

TerraHidro (TerraLib family)

Call to external models (FORTRAN

programs, TITAN2D, Hydrologic models

Operators for cumulative rain from

observations – hydroestimator, radar

Data validation - radar, PCD

Alert model validation

Conclusions

Processes extremes captured by risk

analyses

Includes vulnerabilities

Easy programming for non-programmers of

input processing and risk analysis

http://www.terralib.org

laercio@dpi.inpe.br

http://www.dpi.inpe.br/sismaden