A New Global Climate Change Treaty – Can Humanity Deliver?

Our Challenge after Durban for 2015

Jonathan BostonSchool of Government

Victoria University of Wellington

Speech at the University of Otago14 March 2012

Some Quotes

If we don’t succeed, we run the risk of failure. George W Bush

It isn’t pollution that’s harming the environment. It’s the impurities in our air and water that are doing it.

George W Bush

The Nature of the Problem

“Climate change, and what we do about it, will define us, our era, and ultimately the global

legacy we leave for future generations”

Ban Ki-Moon, UN Secretary-General, 2007

Some QuotesRoger Revelle & Hans Suess:

“… human beings are now carrying out a large scale geophysical experiment of a kind that could not have happened in the past nor be reproduced in the future. Within a few centuries we are returning to the atmosphere and oceans the concentrated organic carbon stored in sedimentary rocks over hundreds of millions of years.”

Roger Revelle & Hans Suess, Tellus, 9, 18-27 (1957)

Rick Perry (Governor of Texas):

Climate science is a “contrived phony mess that is falling apart under its own weight.” Human-induced global warming is “a scientific theory that hasn’t been proven.” (August 2011 )

Durban Conference – COP 17

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (1992)

– Conference of the Parties (COP)– 17th COP in Durban, South Africa, late 2011

Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (DPEA)– A new climate treaty – to be agreed by 2015 and

come into force by 2020– Common rules for all

The Problem

“Climate change is a diabolical policy problem. It is harder than any other issue of high importance …”

Professor Ross Garnaut (ANU)

… a ‘super-wicked’ problem:1. Complex and controversial2. All solutions are problematic3. Delay is costly4. Those most responsible have least incentive to solve it5. Weak central control or enforcement mechanisms

Obstacles to an Effective New Treaty

1. Collective action problem2. Powerful interests; big fossil-fuel sectors in key countries3. Path dependence and long-lags4. Geo-political constraints and tensions5. US – an unwilling participant in international treaties6. Climate scepticism7. Divisive policy issues8. Global financial crisis9. The human condition10. UN decision-making processes

What follows …

1. The science of climate change2. The international policy framework3. The Durban Platform for Enhanced Action

(DPEA)– The long-term goal– Burden sharing and fairness– Policy instruments– Legal form and broad participation

4. The Way Ahead: Making Progress5. Conclusion

Do we see the big picture?Vitruvian man (Da Vinci) recreated on melting ice by artist John Quigley (from Chapman)

The Scientific Evidence

“The outsider to climate science has no rational choice but to accept that, on the balance of probabilities, the mainstream science is right ... We will delude ourselves if we think that scientific uncertainties are cause for delay. Delaying now will eliminate attractive lower-cost options … To delay is to deliberately choose to avoid effective steps to reduce the risks of climate change to acceptable levels”.

Ross Garnaut, Garnaut Climate Change Review (Australia)

(Draft Report, 2008, pp.1-2)

IGBP PAGES

The Scientific EvidenceSummary from IPCC

1. The planet is warming2. The most likely explanation is the large-scale

emission of GHGs by human beings3. More warming is very likely4. Warming will continue for more than an 1,000

years – given the long lags in the climate system and the carbon cycle

5. Most of the consequences will be negative; they will be of growing severity and duration; some will be irreversible

The Scientific Evidence

Main ‘reasons for concern’:

1. Risks to unique and threaten systems2. Risks of extreme weather events 3. Distribution of impacts and vulnerability4. Aggregate impacts5. Risk of large-scale singularities or discontinuities –

abrupt changes

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The International Policy Framework

1. Phase 1: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

– Key objective – to ‘prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’ … but what does this mean?

2. Phase 2: Kyoto Protocol negotiated under the UNFCCC in 1997

– came into effect in 2005 – first commitment period (CP1): 2008-12

Kyoto Protocol - Strengths

1. Provided a spur for domestic action2. Established the essential elements of an

effective mitigation framework, including:– Common accounting rules– Regular reporting and verification– Market mechanisms– Responsibility targets or quantified emission

limitation or reduction objectives (QELROs) for all developed countries

Kyoto Protocol - Weaknesses

1. Based on an arbitrary division between developed and developing countries, and failed to recognize and anticipate huge changes in the global economy

2. Lack of symmetry contributed to the US deciding not to ratify Kyoto, thereby undermining the Protocol’s credibility and effectiveness

3. Only limited emissions reductions during CP1

Emissions Trajectories

Durban Conference

1. Transition to phase 3 of the international climate policy regime

2. Positive outcomes of conference:– Kyoto kept alive – there will be a CP2– Agreement on new accounting rules, including

land use, land use change and forestry– Launched the Green Climate Fund– Launched negotiations for a new treaty

Developed Countries: Unfinished Business

1. Duration of CP22. Translation of pledges into multi-year carbon

budgets or responsibility targets3. Which developed countries will take on

targets under KP?4. Carry over of excess units from CP15. Ratification process

Developing Countries

1. Nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs)

2. Biennial reporting3. International consultation and analysis4. But no agreement yet on new common

accounting rules

The Gap Between What is Needed and What is on Offer

1. No agreed date for peaking or a global emissions-reduction target for 2050

2. Not a top-down process; rather bottom-up pledge and review

3. Current pledges fall far short of what is required to meet the 2°C warming cap, by at least 5 gigatonnes CO2e in 2020

Emission Paths to Stabilization (from Stern Review)

The Ideal Model

1. Universal coverage2. Explicit long-term goals, including a fixed carbon

(or emissions) budget3. A burden-sharing arrangement; most countries

would eventually have responsibility targets4. Right to trade emission units5. Common accounting rules6. Periodic review

NZZ

Towards a New Climate Treaty

The long-term goal

1. The case for a 2°C warming cap2. The case for an even lower cap3. But how to stay within even 2°C?

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Burden Sharing and Fairness1. UNFCCC principles: equity; common but differentiated

responsibilities and respective capabilities; comparability of effort …

2. Various principles of distributive justice:– Polluter pays (historic responsibility)– Ability to pay (or capability)– Equal right to pollute; equal per capita share of the

atmosphere– Equal marginal cost– Other principles and considerations

3. Only rough justice possible

Estimated Per Capita GHG Emissions - 2012

Source: Garnaut -10 scenario

Legal Form and Symmetry

1. ‘… an agreed outcome with legal force’– Consistent with differentiation both in terms of

substance and legal bindingness, but– Legal parity or equivalence necessary politically

for all major emitters

2. How to accommodate the US?3. Without the US, any new treaty is unlikely;

delays seem inevitable4. Risk of overshooting 2°C cap

The Way Ahead: Making Progress

1. Need progress domestically in many countries if international negotiations are to succeed

2. Need pioneers, leadership and action at multiple levels – governmental, business, civil society, etc.

– Research and development– Extending and linking emissions trading schemes– Reducing fossil fuel subsidies

3. Need to mobilize and galvanize global public opinion

New Zealand’s Role

1. Take on a responsibility target under Kyoto for CP2 – 20% reduction by 2020 on 1990 levels

2. Incorporate agriculture into the emissions trading scheme (ETS), and improve the ETS

3. Invest in R&D4. A range of complementary measures

Conclusions

1. Tough road ahead2. But Durban highlights the potential for

progress3. Some positive developments –

decarbonisation gathering pace globally4. We are all in this together – we all have

responsibilities

Conclusions

Mr President, the evidence is there. The damage is being done. … We need a realistic programme of action and an equally realistic timetable. Each country has to contribute, and those countries who are industrialised must contribute more to help those who are not. The work ahead will be long and exacting. We should embark on it hopeful of success, not fearful of failure. … We are not the lords, we are the Lord's creatures, the trustees of this planet, charged today with preserving life itself—preserving life with all its mystery and all its wonder. May we all be equal to that task.

Margaret Thatcher, UN speech, 1989

Acknowledgements

1. Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade2. The Stern Review (2006)3. The Garnaut Review (2008)4. Dr James Hansen (NASA)5. Professor Peter Gluckman (AU)6. Professor Martin Manning (VUW)7. Associate Professor Ralph Chapman (VUW)

Some References1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth

Assessment Report (Summaries for Policy Makers from WG1, WG2 and WG3) (Cambridge University Press, 2007)

2. Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, 2007)

3. The Garnaut Climate Change Review (Canberra, 2008)4. Jonathan Boston (ed) Towards a New Global Climate

Treaty: Looking Beyond 2012 (Wellington, Institute of Policy Studies, 2007)

5. UNFCCC Reports and Decisions of COP 176. www.climateark.org7. www.realclimate.org

Assessing the Costs and Benefits of Mitigating Climate Change

Estimates of economic activity per person with and without policy to stabilise emissions at 450 parts per million carbon dioxide, 1950–2100

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

1950 2000 2050 2100

Gro

ss w

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d p

rod

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per

pers

on

(US

$1

990

)

World gross domestic product per person (historical)

No emissions reductions

With deep cuts in emission – central estimate

With deep cuts in emission – low estimate

With deep cuts in emission – high estimate

Key Players